Sam Biswas
Banned
What if the entire Finland was annexed by the Soviet Union, similar to the Baltic States?
- Thread starter Sam Biswas
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...It would become the Finnish SSR, a part of the USSR with some Karelian areas added. For many things, we could look at what happened to Estonia as a template. The knock-on effects and butterflies in terms of WWII and its aftermath would be manifold, beginning with the effects on Finland and the Finns, the changed position of Sweden and Norway, the USSR's defence against Germany improving, changing events in Europe in 1940-41, changes for German plans for and realization of *Barbarossa, etc.
Cook
Banned
The most immediately obvious difference would be that there would not have been a siege of Leningrad. Without Finnish forces occupying the territory north of lake Ladoga the Germans would have had no means of isolating the Soviet's second largest city and on of its most important industrial centres; there would not have been a 900 day siege and losses in Leningrad would have been more consistent (i.e. far less substantial) with those of Moscow.
thaddeus
Donor
what is the changed position of Sweden? IF Norway occupied by Germany per historical, and entirety of Finland occupied by Soviets (hard to imagine) could they be forced into supporting Barbarossa?
I'm assuming that a large number of Russians would be settled in this Finnish SSR, if it was treated similarly to the other Baltic States.
xsampa
Banned
Sweden actually might react to the Sovietization of Finland by turning to the far-right on its own. The invasion of Finland did not have to result in direct annexation, as demonstrated by the existence of the Finnish Democratic Republic IOTL. With the successful creation of the FDR, the Swedish far-right could play on fears of becoming just another Soviet satellite. Exactly how they could rise to power is difficult to imagine, although a declaration of emergency and the creation of a 'National Unity' government including the far-right elements which use their popularity and the emergency conditions to purge rivals is a distinct possibility.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Germany. USSR attacked some far off country, which is regrettable. Germany attacks us.
Finland would indeed be poorer. Even in best case so rich as Estonia. And there would be bigger Russian population. Finland too would join to EU much later than in OTL if USSR dissolves like in OTL. And Finland might even join to Nato. And surely Sweden too would join to the organasiton ASAP.
The Karelo-Finnish SSR - much like with Moldova, the Karelian ASSR was upgraded to an SSR in the precise hope that Finland would be included. If the Kremlin was more successful in retaining Finland, then the Karelo-Finnish SSR would still be around at the time of the breakup instead of the OTL downgrade back to an ASSR of Russia.
Agreed.
Check the order of events - the Karelian ASSR was upgraded to the Karelo-Finnish SSR in late March 1940, after the invasion of Finland had failed. It didn't exist when the invasion started, Kuusinen's "Finnish Democratic Republic" did. If TTL follows the Baltic template most closely, what we would get is the Red Army rolling into Helsinki, Kuusinen arriving with his crew to set up shop and proclaim the "Republic" in the Finnish capital. Que purges and, in a few weeks, "free and fair elections", after which the new "Finnish People's Parliament" will in some days or weeks humbly ask Finland to be joined into the USSR. At this point, the Karelian ASSR is liquidated, some of it united with Finland and some added to the Russian SFSR. Hey presto, the Finnish SSR. It might be called the "Finno-Karelian SSR" in the interest of continuity (I believe that is less likely), but the "Karelo-Finnish SSR" would be right out as a name, with this chain of events, I believe. The Karelians would make up a minority in this SSR which would have its capital in Helsinki. The Soviet propaganda line would be that this is the "Greater Finland" the Finns wanted since WWI, finally a joint pan-Finnic state given life within the great family of Soviet peoples.
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OK, then. Makes sense - Finno-Karelian SSR it is, then, with capital at Gieljsingfors (Гельсингфорс) or some approximation of the Finnish name like, for example, Гельсинги, Гельсинки, or whatever.
OTOH when the Moldavian ASSR was upgraded to an SSR after taking control of the territory making up modern Moldova's borders the entire ASSR was more or less incorporated as is; only those areas of the ASSR with a Ukrainian majority remained with Ukraine. Since by the time of incorporation of TTL's Finnish/Finno-Karelian SSR most people within its territory were Russians (if one believes the Soviet census from that time) something like that would be more difficult. In that case it would be easier to incorporate the entire Karelian ASSR as is (and then, perhaps who knows, inflating the number of people with Karelian nationality, say by incorporating smaller Finnic-speaking ethnicities and anyone who speaks an Eastern Finnish dialect, even if - where, yes, I'd agree - the genuine Karelians remained a minority).
Definitely.
I think they could carve up most of the area west of the Murmansk railway to join to the new SSR, it had a Finnic majority in the 30s. The Russian population of the ASSR was mostly concentrated in the east. The borders on the map @Karelian posted would include quite little Russians - which I believe is not a coincidence. Adding small Finnic groups from elsewhere would of course be possible.
Have we established when the OP is suggesting this take place? Early on after or during the RCW, or as conquest during the Winter War in 1939/40? I actually assumed the later but maybe I'm wrong.
I believe you are right, but its worth thinking of opportunities it might have brought the Germans as well. In any situations of Russian forces occupying all of Finland you are going to see an uprising of the Finnish when the Germans approach or immediately upon the June offensive. In such a scenario, Russian forces are going to be spread more throughout the country, or the entire region abandoned to defend Helsinki or St. Petersburg. Both scenarios involve fewer Russian forces (than OTL) to defending Leningrad siege. I.e. maybe bad leadership attempts to keep Helsinki and are surrounded or lost, thus leaving Leningrad much more vulnerable to the German advance?
I believe you are right, but its worth thinking of opportunities it might have brought the Germans as well. In any situations of Russian forces occupying all of Finland you are going to see an uprising of the Finnish when the Germans approach or immediately upon the June offensive. In such a scenario, Russian forces are going to be spread more throughout the country, or the entire region abandoned to defend Helsinki or St. Petersburg. Both scenarios involve fewer Russian forces (than OTL) to defending Leningrad siege. I.e. maybe bad leadership attempts to keep Helsinki and are surrounded or lost, thus leaving Leningrad much more vulnerable to the German advance?
Hmm - if the USSR is getting all Finland, why would the USSR still want to sever Viipuri from Finland? That territory no longer matters for defense of Leningrad, and it is the second largest city in Finland.
Look closer. Viipuri's still within the Finnish borders on that map, there's just a part of the Isthmus south of it given to the Russian SFSR/Leningrad oblast.