I am going to ignore the nonsensical relativist talk about Generalplan Ost.
In another post I talked about how I've been fascinated by the idea of an actual industrialized proletarian country being the first nation to establish communism for a bit now.
Let's say that Fanny Kaplan succeeds in assassinating Lenin or the Russian Revolution simply never happens in the first place
That is two massively different PoDs. With an October Revolution that occurs but then cannibalises itself (that is, cannibalises itself in a different way than IOTL) - and Fanny Kaplan killing Lenin doesn't mean Russia turns White all of a sudden! - , you still get the precedent of a revolutionary-get-out-of-the-war card, something important in the formation of Revolutionäre Obleute in Germany from early 1918 on. With no October Revolution, the development of a network of revolutionary cells is significantly less plausible. The USPD, which would have been the major opposition to the war, was not about to pull it off, at least not its leadership; they were basically dragged to the revolution by these grassroots groups.
In the former case, I would imagine the Kiel Mutiny ff. would go much like IOTL. The SPD leadership, who IOTL saw Red Terror in Russia as the warning sign for themselves on the wall, would now see - what exactly? the starvation and misery of a civil war? probably that! - on the wall in the case of a revolution, so they would still try to reign it in instead of embracing it, thus probably the same Ebert-Groener-Pact. But maybe the Spartakists would, with Lenin's example so much less shiny and inspiring, not opt for going it alone and instead seek to keep a broader coalition together? That would, in their case, mean no USPD-KPD split. Violence in Munich in December would happen nonetheless since it was initiated from the Right, but the violence in Berlin in January 1919 might not happen if the radical left stays more cautious. Luxemburg and Liebknecht might stay alive. Everything else being fairly similar to OTL so far, that is the big building block you've got to work with: two charismatic leaders of the radical Left being able to shape Weimar. They don't have a majority behind them, but they are good. Instead of revolting, they might opt for an attempt to take over leadership of the USPD from the much more moderate group around Haase and Hilferding. A united USPD with a radical and charismatic leadership might fare a lot better at the January 19 polls than they did IOTL. I would think that Ebert and those in the SPD supporting his course of action would still prefer a coalition with the DDP, now simply not offering the USPD the option for a coalition. If I'm right, then it's the same coalition as IOTL that has to take the fallout for signing Versailles, and the USPD would criticise this imperialist dictate from the left. Your probably best moment for the USPD to step into action would be the Kapp Putsch. Maybe Luxemburg and Liebknecht would not take the betrayal of the Bielefeld Agreement lying down, and instead continue general strikes and protest actions during the electoral campaign of 1920. In the June 1920 elections for the first Reichstag of the Republic, the USPD could overtake the SPD, and if they're very lucky, they could hold a narrow socialist majority. Not the most likely outcome, but let's go with it because it's the least improbable way I see for it. If they don't manage here, they'll have to wait until the early 1930s and the Great Depression for another chance to take over.
In the latter case, there probably aren't widespread mutinies already by late October / early November 1918. Even if the morale of the army is crap, without the network of Revolutionäre Obleute and the great amount of radicals conscripted away from the January 1918 strikes into the army, the army just retreats in the West (and maybe even in the East if the Russian Constituante and its probably SR-led government, probably now from Moscow, opts for a last-minute counter-offensive against German troops in even worse shape than the Russian ones). Hindenburg and Ludendorff sneak out the back door like they did IOTL, trying to shift the blame onto civilian politicians especially from the left. It would then be Max von Baden's government which would have to seek terms at some point, but probably later than IOTL, and maybe with Entente troops already having reached German soil. By that point, you have a liberal government appointed by a still reigning Kaiser who takes the fall for Compiegne, with only 2 SPD ministers, and now the disiluusioned army gets de-mobilised. That's an awesome moment for a revolution, and in this scenario, the SPD is not as afraid as in the former. It might join in with a lot more enthusiasm. The Russian example of the councils would not be there, so this revolution is probably relying more on general strikes, mass protests in the streets demanding the Kaiser and OHL to step down, and SPD and the USPD with its Spartakist wing still attached demanding "the socialist republic", and probably even achieving it t the first democratic elections for a Constituante.
and an alternate Spartacist uprising is successful in taking over Germany. Or some other situation where Russia is democratic, fascist, or some other ideology and Germany is communist. What would this Spartacist Germany look like as the now great pariah of Europe?
Germany was a pariah of sorts anyway due to the war. In the scenario A above, socialist Germany would really be led by a Spartakist, in scenario B, probably not. The treatment would be fairly similar to OTL: punish them for starting and losing the war, extract reparations. In scenario B, Russia also sits at the table in Paris, so things get even worse for Germany.
Would Spartacist Germany intervene in places like Hungary and others to secure control to spread the revolution?
Like I said above, no Leninist Red Russia probably means no Spartakist stand-alone council revolution in Germany, and it just as likely means no Bela Kun-led communist revolution in Hungary.
No Leninist revolution in Russia in all likelihood means whenever something looking like a socialist takeover happens in Germany first, then it's most likely in the form of a socialist parliamentary majority coming about in elections. And that's probably a broader coalition, with a narrow margin. In a country whose army just demobilised. It would not have the potential to intervene anywhere. It would face the same encirclement and blackmail by the victorious powers that the OTL coalition faced. It would not be "communism" as we know it IOTL. The most ambitious thing I could imagine in terms of foreign policy would be to push harder for unification with Austria if Austria has an SDAPÖ-led government. It would try to foster better relations with other labour-led and neutral European governments in Denmark and Sweden, but it doesn't have much to bargain with. It would openly and loudly denounce Mussolini's March on Rome in Italy and the establishment of his fascist dictatorship, as well as Primo de Rivera's dictatorship in Spain, but it would be powerless to do anything.
What would Germany's politics, life, and culture look like? Would it stand to this day?
Whatever the socialist majority would be, it would probably fall apart or lose its majority at the next elections, since the external situation and the baggage that Weimar carried were just too heavy and every single government failed at the next ballot box. Socialists would be no exception here. Without Lenin's fixation on dictatorship, a socialist Germany would be a parliamentary democracy, and as such not perpetuate its hold on power. It would probably have pushed through, in the few years it had:
- educational reform
- unemployment insurance (like IOTL)
- a workplace democracy bill that went farther than IOTL
- nationalisation of key industries
- a very steep progressive income tax
Basically, more akin to what Attlee's Labour government did in Britain.
A subsequent bourgeois government would try to reverse some of this, but not achieve much. The tide was turning for more welfarism and socialist economics, and without the bad example of starving Red Russia, it would look even more attractive. And hey, even if things probably don't look too great throughout the 1920s, if it's a bourgeois government like Brüning's that takes the fall of the Great Depression, then maybe they have a spectacular comeback in the early 1930s and push ahead more of their agenda with some sort of German Red New Deal. By that time, their space of maneuvre will have increased somewhat, and if they're competent and lucky, they might even start a long social-democratic domination of Germany from this point onwards like the Scandinavian countries had it. And it would also probably look a lot like this analogue from OTL, not at all like any communist dictatorship of OTL.
