Wallies target German electrical grid in 1943

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Deleted member 1487

Early in WW2 USAAF strategic planners looked at the German electrical grid as a prime target, but decided that it was probably too dispersed to be a knock out blow worthy target in the end, which post-war examination of the German economy showed to be horribly wrong; they concluded had they gone after the German electrical grid in 1943 they could have ended the war by mid-1944 due to the total collapse of German production that would result. What if they did? What effect would a total collapse of German industrial production have had by June 1944? Would it cause an immediate surrender or would Hitler try and struggle on? Would the resistance then have enough support to overthrow Hitler and make peace? I'm assuming that from August 1943 on instead of going after ball bearings or other targets the USAAF opts to hit electrical targets, so there is a large degrading of German production from that point on until in 1944 it totally falls apart.

How would that impact the post-war situation if the Germans surrender at least 12 months early?
 
Trouble was, with the existing weapons & strategy, the WAllied bombers were incapable of hitting power stations. The accuracy needed was too great.

The one way that would have worked, interfering with coal deliveries by mining rivers & bombing canals, didn't occur to anyone.

Postwar effects? I'd say no occupation of Eastern Europe, for a start, so no Berlin Wall. (That has jumbo-sized butterflies for spy fiction, at the very least; Funeral in Berlin, just to name one, won't be written.)
 

Deleted member 1487

Trouble was, with the existing weapons & strategy, the WAllied bombers were incapable of hitting power stations. The accuracy needed was too great.

The one way that would have worked, interfering with coal deliveries by mining rivers & bombing canals, didn't occur to anyone.

Postwar effects? I'd say no occupation of Eastern Europe, for a start, so no Berlin Wall. (That has jumbo-sized butterflies for spy fiction, at the very least; Funeral in Berlin, just to name one, won't be written.)
Not really according to the USSBS, the targets were a LOT more prone to damage than industrial equipment, so could be carpet bombed to hell much more easily than a similar industrial facility. All they needed was a couple bombs of the 500lbs variety within a few dozen meters to inflict crippling damage. Then with following up with attacks on factories that made replacement machinery it would have been pretty much a death blow.

Also the Allies did do the mining of the Danube and bombing Canals in 1944-45.

Why wouldn't there be an occupation of Eastern Europe? By 1943 they had agreed on a Soviet occupation zone and even with the Germans still occupying stuff when they quit the Soviets are a lot closer to Eastern Europe than the Wallies are even if they land in Hamburg and the Baltic coast eventually.
 
Attacks on the power grid are mentioned in



Brute Force: Allied Strategy and Tactics in the Second World War – John Ellis


P218/219

The other main missed opportunity was the German electricity grid. Even at the beginning of the war there was no surplus electric energy in Germany – indeed, 10 and sometimes 30 per cent reductions in supply were quite common – and efforts during the war to increase supply proved unavailing (it was impossible either to build the plants, redistribute or increase coal supplies, or build hydro-electric facilities (79 per cent of power stations burnt coal and the rest were water-powered)). As these efforts grew more and more desperate, greater demands were placed on the grid. This grid was extremely vulnerable – as had been sensed by the Americans very early, when the AWPD-1 Plan made electric power the prime target in Germany – in that only 0.2 tons of bombs per acre could knock out a generating station for up to 3 months, whilst 0.4 tons could nullify it for up to a whole year. Moreover, any station knocked out would represent an immediate loss to the system for which it was impossible to compensate, given the simple but crucial fact that electricity cannot be stored. There were in Germany 8,257 generating station in 1939, but most were of little consequence, with only just over 100 providing 56.3 per cent of all current generated and a further 300 bringing that percentage up to 81.9. The location of these plants was known, as was the relative ease with which electric generating (and transmission) equipment could be seriously damaged, much of it being of a fragile nature. If just 5 of these plants had been put out of action, the German system would have suffered a capacity loss of 8 per cent; if 45 had been destroyed the loss would have been 40 per cent: and if 95 had been taken out a more than 50 per cent deficit would have resulted. The very survival of the German war economy would then have been in doubt; for Speer later testified that the loss of around 60 per cent of capacity would have brought German industry to a standstill (Transformer stations were also extremely vulnerable, since blast alone was sufficient to wreck transformers for good. A German document written in 1944 reckoned that two or three nights’ concentrated attacked on only 30 transformer stations could ‘paralyse decisively the German power grid (USSBS, The Effects of Strategic Bombing on the Germany Economy). An ideal ancillary target would have been the four factories that produced most of the high-tension transformers).

In the event, however, the power grid was almost totally ignored by the bombers; Eighth Air Force expending only 316 tons of bombs (0.05 per cent of the total dropped) and Bomber Command only 532 tons (0.07 per cent). One cannot help but feel that the following remark by a German observer questioned by the USSBS, though it only applies to one city, permits and extrapolation concerning the whole German war economy; ‘If the Allied airmen had concentrated on knocking out the two big power stations in the outskirts of Berlin, the city would be just as dead as it is now after months of heavy bombing of the entire city.’





before that it mentioned ethyl fluid plants


P217/218

Ethyl Fluid, this was ‘an indispensable constituent of high-grade aviation gasoline. The addition of ethyl fluid in very small amounts to gasoline is so beneficial that no modern aircraft is operated without it. It was made from tetraethyl lead and ethylene dibromide, and production of the former was limited to only five plants in Axis Europe, two in Germany, two in Italy and one in Occupied France. Only the products of their own and one Italian plant were ever available to the Germans, and these were barely adequate to supply the tetraethyl lead for their needs. Plans to construct two new plants in Germany and to expand production of the others never materialised. Ethylene dibromide was supplied by only a single plant in Germany. The USSBS points out that production of aviation fuel was thus ultimately dependent upon four plants, the location and purpose of each of which was known. The Survey crisply concludes: ‘These plants were not bombed, although the equipment and the processes used were such as to make then highly vulnerable to air attack … A major opportunity in the Allied air offensive against oil was unexploited.
 

Deleted member 1487

That is in fact exactly where I got the info for this thread. Thanks for posting it.
 
wiking said:
All they needed was a couple bombs of the 500lbs variety within a few dozen meters to inflict crippling damage.
If they could put them that close, which was difficult until Oboe or something became operational.
wiking said:
Also the Allies did do the mining of the Danube and bombing Canals in 1944-45.
Which is a bit late, & AFAIK wasn't on a large scale; certainly not large enough to shut down coal movement. In the period in question, AFAIK, it never crossed anyone's mind.
wiking said:
Why wouldn't there be an occupation of Eastern Europe? By 1943 they had agreed on a Soviet occupation zone and even with the Germans still occupying stuff when they quit the Soviets are a lot closer to Eastern Europe than the Wallies are even if they land in Hamburg and the Baltic coast eventually.
I had in mind a permanent occupation after the war. My thinking is, this leads to German collapse so much sooner, any OTL deals would be moot: not made, or not in play.
 

Deleted member 1487

If they could put them that close, which was difficult until Oboe or something became operational.

Which is a bit late, & AFAIK wasn't on a large scale; certainly not large enough to shut down coal movement. In the period in question, AFAIK, it never crossed anyone's mind.

I had in mind a permanent occupation after the war. My thinking is, this leads to German collapse so much sooner, any OTL deals would be moot: not made, or not in play.
Coal movement and transport collapsed in 1945 as the result of bombing. Oboe was unnecessary to the USAAF bombing during the day, where they could hit the bullseye due to saturation. The Allies were more than a bit ridiculous on how they tried to be fair to Stalin post-war.
 
While it is an obvious missed opportunity, when dealing with counterfactuals we can't pretend that Germany won't change its strategy if the bombers start targeting the electrical grid.

They'll concentrate all of their assets to defending the remaining power plants, and they'll likely move to decentralize their plants, rather than rebuild the very vulnerable nodes, making it harder to bomb out the whole grid.

So yeah, definitely should have been done, but I don't think it necessarily means a knockout blow.
 

Deleted member 1487

While it is an obvious missed opportunity, when dealing with counterfactuals we can't pretend that Germany won't change its strategy if the bombers start targeting the electrical grid.

They'll concentrate all of their assets to defending the remaining power plants, and they'll likely move to decentralize their plants, rather than rebuild the very vulnerable nodes, making it harder to bomb out the whole grid.

So yeah, definitely should have been done, but I don't think it necessarily means a knockout blow.
That's the problem, once you start taking out the grid they couldn't replace it and it creates electrical gaps in radar coverage. Plus they couldn't stop USAAF bombing IOTL even in 1943, though they did create prohibitive loss rates. If you take out the important ones and get the RAF to jump on board then there is little Germany can do to stop them without leaving everything else open, which the Wallies can then smash.
 
That's the problem, once you start taking out the grid they couldn't replace it and it creates electrical gaps in radar coverage. Plus they couldn't stop USAAF bombing IOTL even in 1943, though they did create prohibitive loss rates. If you take out the important ones and get the RAF to jump on board then there is little Germany can do to stop them without leaving everything else open, which the Wallies can then smash.

True. Not sure if it would be as effective as projected - they thought strategic bombing would be more effective than it turned out to be, after all. But I imagine it would end up the war several months earlier.

As for the impact - well it may change Wallies invasion plans. Perhaps they can invade earlier?

It'd probably effect how the Soviets get, taking into account German collapse and if the Wallies speed up their plans.
 
Depends on how intensely they pursue it. If it follows the pattern of the rest of the strategic bombing campaign in 1943, then there won't be much of an effect. If it follows the pattern of the 1944-45 oil campaigns and/or the 1945 transport campaign, on the other hand, then the results will be much more significant.

That's the problem, once you start taking out the grid they couldn't replace it

The few times the WAllies bothered to launch major bombing operations against the German electrical grid in 1943 which achieved something, the Germans were able to rapidly recover the lost capacity. The classic example is Operation Chastise, which was also a raid on German electrical generation apparatus. After the raid, looking at the damage to the dams, Barnes Wallis estimated it would set the Germans back years. It set them back two weeks. Follow up strikes may have set them back a lot more (as Speer noted in his memoirs) but because of the overoptimistic BDA estimates as well as the usual mayfly attention span among the groups responsible for target selection, such strikes were not launched. This is quite typical of pretty much the entire strategic bombing campaign in 1943. As with other industrial targets, putting down German electrical generation is going to take sustained pounding to overwhelm German repair efforts.

and it creates electrical gaps in radar coverage.

Erm... the Germans did make sure their radar sites could powered independently of the grid via stuff such as portable generators and the like.
 
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Oboe may not be necessary? I'm far from sure something like it isn't, since USAAF bombing accuracy, even in daylight, was not substantively better than Bomber Command's at night, "saturation" or no.

More to the point, tho, actually hitting the powerplants isn't essential. As proposed elsewhere, mining could cut the coal supplies & shut the powerplants without attacking them at all.
 
P217/218

Ethyl Fluid, this was ‘an indispensable constituent of high-grade aviation gasoline. The addition of ethyl fluid in very small amounts to gasoline is so beneficial that no modern aircraft is operated without it. It was made from tetraethyl lead and ethylene dibromide, and production of the former was limited to only five plants in Axis Europe, two in Germany, two in Italy and one in Occupied France. Only the products of their own and one Italian plant were ever available to the Germans, and these were barely adequate to supply the tetraethyl lead for their needs. Plans to construct two new plants in Germany and to expand production of the others never materialised. Ethylene dibromide was supplied by only a single plant in Germany. The USSBS points out that production of aviation fuel was thus ultimately dependent upon four plants, the location and purpose of each of which was known. The Survey crisply concludes: ‘These plants were not bombed, although the equipment and the processes used were such as to make then highly vulnerable to air attack … A major opportunity in the Allied air offensive against oil was unexploited.
Do you know where these plants were? The obvious locations are on the Saar and at Leuna - and Leuna at least was heavily attacked during the war.
 
Also makes me wonder if they could make an early version of the graphite bomb.

The WWII version was steel cables carried by balloons

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Outward

Operation Outward was the name given to the British World War II program to attack Germany by means of free-flying balloons. It made use of cheap, simple balloons filled with hydrogen. They carried either a trailing steel wire intended to damage high voltage power lines by producing a short circuit, or incendiary devices that were intended to start fires in fields, forests and heathland.
On 12 July 1942, a wire-carrying balloon struck a 110,000-volt power line near Leipzig. A failure in the circuit breaker at the Böhlen power station caused a fire that destroyed the station; this was Outward's greatest success.
 
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