This TL shows just how dangerous Nazi Germany would have been in the hands of a man who was ( other than being a spellbinding public speaker) not a raving lunatic.

The USSR is about to get curbstomped.

"Nazi Germany led by someone who isn't a raving lunatic" is exactly the idea here.

Great update. Would love to see some detail on the non-German forces participating.

Coming soon.

Awesome update as always. So on the one hand we have Stalin and the Red Army not being caught by surprise as in OTL. But on the other we have the USSR being under attack from 3 directions by coordinated and most importantly well supplied troops. Very much looking forward to seeing how this plays out.

The course of the fighting will indeed be substantially different from what was the case historically, in more ways than one.

Has Wagner mapped out the gains that each of the Eastern(including Japan in the far East) ETL members will be getting once the SU is defeated? I'm sure each of these members is eagerly anticipating their new territorial gains after the SU is defeated. Can you give us a little taste of what the new borders would be like? (I'm sure Turkey wasn't the only one to inquire "what's in it for us?")

Also is Portugal part of the ETL? I can't remember. If so, what ties are happening between Portugal and Brazil? This would be the most likely place where German influence would start, provided they have a "foot in the door".

The Japanese are essentially invited to take as much of Siberia as they can manage. The eastern ETL countries are anticipating roughly the same gains as in OTL.

Portugal isn't part of the ETL, but there are close contacts between them.

Well, Germany trying to have influence in Brazil (or anywhere in America) is NOT a good idea. If you're Germany at that time, you don't want to do ANYTHING that MIGHT make the USA unhappy with you (if you can avoid it). Touching to American continent (which was seen by the USA as their big sphere of influence) is a no-no.

Also, having Portugal as a neutral can be useful. If there is ever important tension between ETL and Anglo-Americans, Portugal can help to mend fences, having some ties with Spain, Italy and Germany (Salazar supported Franco along with Mussolini and Wagner), while having an old alliance and ties with Britain.
If there are important tensions with Anglo-Americans, and an embargo for example, Portugal can also be used as a middleman to trade anywhere.

Also, if the Soviet Union is beaten, I expect Turkey to take influence over Azerbaijan, which will allow the Turks to reach control the Chechens, Ingushs and Daghestanis. Basically, Turkey would "protect" Caspian Sea Muslim peoples.

I expect Germany to "protect" Armenia and Georgia. Not least, because the Armenians might fight like mad for Stalin if they fear the Turks taking them over. Also, WWI plans included Georgia in German zone. Which makes sense, because Armenia and Georgia are on Black Sea, behind Ukraine and Circassia.
Even the Turks themselves might not want to "protect" Armenia and Georgia, christian countries, that will be more trouble to them than they're worth.

If Soviets fall, Persia will get back its independence and become a member of the Axis. Iraq (already member of the Axis) might use the occasion to take the Chott-el-Arab.

Central Asia might become a loose protectorate / vassal-ally to the Germans, allowing them to have Luftwaffe and Wehrmacht bases there, and threaten Russia at any moment, and to exploit the local resources (for a reasonable price). The Germans will never be able to directly and heavily control Central Asia like they can do in Ukraine or Caucasus, because there is the Urals and distance in between.

And of course, Japan will want to make Mongolia a protectorate (with Greater Mongolia), but with lighter control than in Manchuria (because logistics, again). Japan will also want to take over Vladivostok, and any resource-rich area in Eastern Siberia (either under direct control, or "Mongolian" control).

This Japan seem more reasonable than OTL. So, they may not try to have Kamtchatka, because if would make the US nervous and be unnecessary expense.

Germany herself, of course, will want influence over the Baltic countries, Byelorussia, Ukraine, Crimea, and likely Finland (including Eastern Karelia), Circassia, Armenia, Georgia, Central Asia and Persia as well. With heavy influence for Byelorussia, Ukraine and Baltics, and light for all other countries.

If vanquished Russia is allowed to have any military at all, there surely will be huge demilitarized zones in Russian territory, at all borders (including with Japanese Empire, Turkey and Central Asia).

Finally, I know that the Soviets have many disadvantages there compared to OTL. But they also have some advantages. Finland is invaded, which protects Leningrad, and Sweden won't join (at first at least). Soviet Union will likely not be surprised, but expecting an attack. Soviets will be more prepared, with fighting Finland longer (long enough to conquer it), and fighting Britain, Persia and Afghanistan. And the Soviets still have a huge industry, lots and lots of resources and manpower, and can retreat behind the Ural.

So, personnally, I don't presume that the Axis will simply win. There is a good chance of that, but no certainty.

Of course, the Germans are always prioritizing avoiding conflict with the US when it comes to the Americas.

I understand about the differences with the OTL situation, and will do my best to take them into account.

There's a good chance that Stalin knowing the Germans are going to attack will work against him, he might deploy more troops to the borders where they most likely suffer the full wrath of the opening blitzkrieg and end up being killed in battle or taken prisoners.
A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

Agreed, in OTL it took all the defeats during 1941 for the Soviet high command to learn to countenance defeat in the face of the Axis offensive in 1942.

Agreed and I brought this point up in a past post about the US and how touchy they will be about the American hemisphere. However trying to get business contacts and trade established from the ETL and Brazil was more of my thought process.

I also think you're spot on with Portugal being a "neutral" is more valuable in this type of diplomacy then if they were part of the ETL.

Business contacts are fine, in OTL there were quite extensive commercial relationships between Germany and many countries in Central and South America before the war.

Well, in OTL there was a brazilian section of the nazi party with more than two thousand members and some nazi propaganda among the german population.

Sure but if the Germans aren't actually sponsoring or manipulating local nazi parties, the US will be fine with it.

And what happens in Argentina? If I remember correctly a documentary about the Nazi presence in Argentina, there was the largest gathering of declared National Socialist militants outside Germany, before the start of the European War.

But it wasn't a local party, it was a section of the german party completely under the control of the leadership of the NSDAP through the Auslands-Organisation, so much that only germans born in Germany could be fully registered members. I think that it was tolerated because of the good relations that Brazil had with Germany at the time and it was too small to bother the US. Maybe the american grip over South America wasn't so tight at the time.

In general, pro-German parties in the region have a somewhat greater presence than in OTL as a result of the increased Axis successes.
 
A question:
We will see the Nazis treating better their prisoners in Ukraine and raising the population in revolt??

Wagner sounds like a practical soul. "Why sure we will help you create an independent Ukraine, we can settle the borders after the Russians are defeated." Then use the Ukrainians as rear-area guard and anti-partisan troops and cannon fodder freeing up the regular forces for combat. If the Russians are defeated expect Ukraine to become an economic colony of the Reich.
 
What of Greece and Yugoslavia? On paper I know they're Italian satellites, but I imagine the reality is quite different. Will they be joining in as well?
 
Wagner sounds like a practical soul. "Why sure we will help you create an independent Ukraine, we can settle the borders after the Russians are defeated." Then use the Ukrainians as rear-area guard and anti-partisan troops and cannon fodder freeing up the regular forces for combat. If the Russians are defeated expect Ukraine to become an economic colony of the Reich.

Yes, but not a Reichscommissariat colony with extermination as the goal, a puppet state instead. Similar to Imperial German policy in the East and other post-Russian Empire states during WW1 - the Ukrainian State, Belarusian People's Republic, Kingdom of Poland (this has already been achieved as Wagner has already vassalised Poland into a puppet state), Kingdom of Lithuania and United Baltic Duchy, Armenian Republic, Georgian Democratic Republic, Azerbaijani Democratic Republic, various Cossack states, North Caucasus Emirate, Tartarstan, Siberian Government, etc. That's the best way to conquer the Soviet Union.
 
Speaking of postwar settlement, maybe in the long-term Wagner could pull a Franco, and restore the German monarchy eventually, as opposed to the NSVP possibly splitting after his death and undoing everything that's been achieved.
 
A question:
We will see the Nazis treating better their prisioners in Ukraine and raising the population in revolt??

They will, the need to squeeze everything possible from the occupied USSR in the short run is less pronounced than historically.

What of Greece and Yugoslavia? On paper I know they're Italian satellites, but I imagine the reality is quite different. Will they be joining in as well?

Likely not, the regional conflicts mean they're perceived as being more trouble than they're worth.

Wagner sounds like a practical soul. "Why sure we will help you create an independent Ukraine, we can settle the borders after the Russians are defeated." Then use the Ukrainians as rear-area guard and anti-partisan troops and cannon fodder freeing up the regular forces for combat. If the Russians are defeated expect Ukraine to become an economic colony of the Reich.

Yes, but not a Reichscommissariat colony with extermination as the goal, a puppet state instead. Similar to Imperial German policy in the East and other post-Russian Empire states during WW1 - the Ukrainian State, Belarusian People's Republic, Kingdom of Poland (this has already been achieved as Wagner has already vassalised Poland into a puppet state), Kingdom of Lithuania and United Baltic Duchy, Armenian Republic, Georgian Democratic Republic, Azerbaijani Democratic Republic, various Cossack states, North Caucasus Emirate, Tartarstan, Siberian Government, etc. That's the best way to conquer the Soviet Union.

This is exactly the approach which will be followed in TTL.

Speaking of postwar settlement, maybe in the long-term Wagner could pull a Franco, and restore the German monarchy eventually, as opposed to the NSVP possibly splitting after his death and undoing everything that's been achieved.

Perhaps, I haven't given much thought to the postwar situation yet.
 

trajen777

Banned
A very good TL -- just caught up. With an invasion from east / west / south it will be difficult for USSR to stay stable for long. I am curious as the the type of support hardware that the non German forces will fight with == the export mark3 / french tanks ? This was a major issue for the Bulgarians, Roman, and the Italian forces went to war with.
 
Could we please see a world map prior to Hermann?

I could imagine the Germans annexing a few areas like the Crimea.

I'm sorry, I have no ability when it comes to map-making.

Agreed about possible annexations of important spots, the European USSR is large enough that they could coexist with vassals.

A very good TL -- just caught up. With an invasion from east / west / south it will be difficult for USSR to stay stable for long. I am curious as the the type of support hardware that the non German forces will fight with == the export mark3 / french tanks ? This was a major issue for the Bulgarians, Roman, and the Italian forces went to war with.

This is one of the areas which in my opinion is changed significantly by the differences with the historical situation. The enormous productive capacity at the Axis's disposal means the non-German forces will be equipped significantly better than they were in OTL, and will be correspondingly more effective.

Expect the Germans to also sponsor the Russian Liberation Army in Russian majority areas also.

They will, such regions won't necessarily be reached rapidly however.
 
If you'd remind me of territorial changes I can make you one.
I could quickly archive binge, but I just know that this way I'll end up missing some important detail.

Much appreciated!

Alsace-Lorraine, Luxembourg and Lichtenstein go to Germany, as do its pre-WWI African colonies. The French part of Belgium, the Belgian Congo, Gambia, Sierra Leone, and Gold Coast go to France, and the Dutch part of Beligum goes to Holland. Oran, Andorra, Morocco and Gibraltar go to Spain, while Monaco, Tunisia, Djibouti, Egypt, Sudan, and Somaliland go to Italy. Finland and the Azerbaijani part of Iran go to the USSR, and the rest of Iran becomes a "People's Republic," with the exception of the Abadan region, which goes to Iraq. Hong Kong, Hainan, Singapore, Malaya, and Burma go to Japan.

This is aside from the various spheres of influence exercised through the ECM, GEACPS, etc.

o rlly? tell me more

A Shift in Priorities
and
Decades of Darkness would be the first two to come to mind for me.

The above, plus Male Rising, With the Crescent Above Us, and Red Sun Rising, although only WTCAU goes in depth into its politics.

Interesting, some of these I hadn't heard of.
 
You forgot that the Dutch East Indies and French Indochina, while nominally still under the colonial rule of the French and the Netherlands (respectively), are in the Japanese sphere of influence.

Also the Suez Canal Zone was retained by Britain, while the rest of Egypt went to Italy. San Marino was also annexed by Italy yes?

Edit: also, Spain purchased Mauritania from France right?
 
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Alsace-Lorraine, Luxembourg and Lichtenstein go to Germany, as do its pre-WWI African colonies. The French part of Belgium, the Belgian Congo, Gambia, Sierra Leone, and Gold Coast go to France, and the Dutch part of Beligum goes to Holland. Oran, Andorra, Morocco and Gibraltar go to Spain, while Monaco, Tunisia, Djibouti, Egypt, Sudan, and Somaliland go to Italy. Finland and the Azerbaijani part of Iran go to the USSR, and the rest of Iran becomes a "People's Republic," with the exception of the Abadan region, which goes to Iraq. Hong Kong, Hainan, Singapore, Malaya, and Burma go to Japan.

If Italy gets Monaco, it also gets Nice, but not Corsica or Savoie, correct?
Germany gets mostly 1913 border with Poland. Did it got entire Bohemia-Moravia, or just Sudetenland while rest id puppet?
Did UK lost Malta, Cyprus? They kept Suez canal and Sinai in Egypt, right?
Was Yugoslavia partitioned?
Did Denmark cede Holstein back to Germany?
Is Japan still bogged up in China, or did they reach some sort of accommodation?
 
You forgot that the Dutch East Indies and French Indochina, while nominally still under the colonial rule of the French and the Netherlands (respectively), are in the Japanese sphere of influence.

Also the Suez Canal Zone was retained by Britain, while the rest of Egypt went to Italy. San Marino was also annexed by Italy yes?

Edit: also, Spain purchased Mauritania from France right?

The DEI and Indochina are part of what was meant by the reference to spheres of influence.

You are correct about the Canal and San Marino.

Spain retains an option to purchase Mauritania, but has not done so yet.

If Italy gets Monaco, it also gets Nice, but not Corsica or Savoie, correct?
Germany gets mostly 1913 border with Poland. Did it got entire Bohemia-Moravia, or just Sudetenland while rest id puppet?
Did UK lost Malta, Cyprus? They kept Suez canal and Sinai in Egypt, right?
Was Yugoslavia partitioned?
Did Denmark cede Holstein back to Germany?
Is Japan still bogged up in China, or did they reach some sort of accommodation?

Italy doesn't have Nice.

Germany does get the pre-WWI border with Poland, and the Sudetenland, but the rest of B-M is a puppet. Now that it is brought to my mind, the USSR of course also has what it historically annexed in eastern Europe between the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and the German invasion.

The UK lost Malta but not Cyprus, and did retain the canal and Sinai.

Yugoslavia hasn't been partitioned.

Holstein was ceded.

Japan did reach a settlement, covered in the third chapter of part 5.
 
Holstein was ceded.

Japan did reach a settlement, covered in the third chapter of part 5.

A minor nitpick:

It is "Nordschleswig", you are talking about. "Holstein" was always part of the german Reich, also "southern Schleswig" (and still are parts of todays Germany). It was "Nordschleswig", that was ceded to Danmark after the first world war.

For your orientation:

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordschleswig

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Jutland_County
 
Will Bohemia-Moravia eventually be integrated into the German Reich? Germany's borders look so much prettier and complete with all of the Czech state, and there's all that sweet, sweet industry.
 
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