This TL shows just how dangerous Nazi Germany would have been in the hands of a man who was ( other than being a spellbinding public speaker) not a raving lunatic.
The USSR is about to get curbstomped.
"Nazi Germany led by someone who isn't a raving lunatic" is exactly the idea here.
Great update. Would love to see some detail on the non-German forces participating.
Coming soon.
Awesome update as always. So on the one hand we have Stalin and the Red Army not being caught by surprise as in OTL. But on the other we have the USSR being under attack from 3 directions by coordinated and most importantly well supplied troops. Very much looking forward to seeing how this plays out.
The course of the fighting will indeed be substantially different from what was the case historically, in more ways than one.
Has Wagner mapped out the gains that each of the Eastern(including Japan in the far East) ETL members will be getting once the SU is defeated? I'm sure each of these members is eagerly anticipating their new territorial gains after the SU is defeated. Can you give us a little taste of what the new borders would be like? (I'm sure Turkey wasn't the only one to inquire "what's in it for us?")
Also is Portugal part of the ETL? I can't remember. If so, what ties are happening between Portugal and Brazil? This would be the most likely place where German influence would start, provided they have a "foot in the door".
The Japanese are essentially invited to take as much of Siberia as they can manage. The eastern ETL countries are anticipating roughly the same gains as in OTL.
Portugal isn't part of the ETL, but there are close contacts between them.
Well, Germany trying to have influence in Brazil (or anywhere in America) is NOT a good idea. If you're Germany at that time, you don't want to do ANYTHING that MIGHT make the USA unhappy with you (if you can avoid it). Touching to American continent (which was seen by the USA as their big sphere of influence) is a no-no.
Also, having Portugal as a neutral can be useful. If there is ever important tension between ETL and Anglo-Americans, Portugal can help to mend fences, having some ties with Spain, Italy and Germany (Salazar supported Franco along with Mussolini and Wagner), while having an old alliance and ties with Britain.
If there are important tensions with Anglo-Americans, and an embargo for example, Portugal can also be used as a middleman to trade anywhere.
Also, if the Soviet Union is beaten, I expect Turkey to take influence over Azerbaijan, which will allow the Turks to reach control the Chechens, Ingushs and Daghestanis. Basically, Turkey would "protect" Caspian Sea Muslim peoples.
I expect Germany to "protect" Armenia and Georgia. Not least, because the Armenians might fight like mad for Stalin if they fear the Turks taking them over. Also, WWI plans included Georgia in German zone. Which makes sense, because Armenia and Georgia are on Black Sea, behind Ukraine and Circassia.
Even the Turks themselves might not want to "protect" Armenia and Georgia, christian countries, that will be more trouble to them than they're worth.
If Soviets fall, Persia will get back its independence and become a member of the Axis. Iraq (already member of the Axis) might use the occasion to take the Chott-el-Arab.
Central Asia might become a loose protectorate / vassal-ally to the Germans, allowing them to have Luftwaffe and Wehrmacht bases there, and threaten Russia at any moment, and to exploit the local resources (for a reasonable price). The Germans will never be able to directly and heavily control Central Asia like they can do in Ukraine or Caucasus, because there is the Urals and distance in between.
And of course, Japan will want to make Mongolia a protectorate (with Greater Mongolia), but with lighter control than in Manchuria (because logistics, again). Japan will also want to take over Vladivostok, and any resource-rich area in Eastern Siberia (either under direct control, or "Mongolian" control).
This Japan seem more reasonable than OTL. So, they may not try to have Kamtchatka, because if would make the US nervous and be unnecessary expense.
Germany herself, of course, will want influence over the Baltic countries, Byelorussia, Ukraine, Crimea, and likely Finland (including Eastern Karelia), Circassia, Armenia, Georgia, Central Asia and Persia as well. With heavy influence for Byelorussia, Ukraine and Baltics, and light for all other countries.
If vanquished Russia is allowed to have any military at all, there surely will be huge demilitarized zones in Russian territory, at all borders (including with Japanese Empire, Turkey and Central Asia).
Finally, I know that the Soviets have many disadvantages there compared to OTL. But they also have some advantages. Finland is invaded, which protects Leningrad, and Sweden won't join (at first at least). Soviet Union will likely not be surprised, but expecting an attack. Soviets will be more prepared, with fighting Finland longer (long enough to conquer it), and fighting Britain, Persia and Afghanistan. And the Soviets still have a huge industry, lots and lots of resources and manpower, and can retreat behind the Ural.
So, personnally, I don't presume that the Axis will simply win. There is a good chance of that, but no certainty.
Of course, the Germans are always prioritizing avoiding conflict with the US when it comes to the Americas.
I understand about the differences with the OTL situation, and will do my best to take them into account.
There's a good chance that Stalin knowing the Germans are going to attack will work against him, he might deploy more troops to the borders where they most likely suffer the full wrath of the opening blitzkrieg and end up being killed in battle or taken prisoners.
A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.
Agreed, in OTL it took all the defeats during 1941 for the Soviet high command to learn to countenance defeat in the face of the Axis offensive in 1942.
Agreed and I brought this point up in a past post about the US and how touchy they will be about the American hemisphere. However trying to get business contacts and trade established from the ETL and Brazil was more of my thought process.
I also think you're spot on with Portugal being a "neutral" is more valuable in this type of diplomacy then if they were part of the ETL.
Business contacts are fine, in OTL there were quite extensive commercial relationships between Germany and many countries in Central and South America before the war.
Well, in OTL there was a brazilian section of the nazi party with more than two thousand members and some nazi propaganda among the german population.
Sure but if the Germans aren't actually sponsoring or manipulating local nazi parties, the US will be fine with it.
And what happens in Argentina? If I remember correctly a documentary about the Nazi presence in Argentina, there was the largest gathering of declared National Socialist militants outside Germany, before the start of the European War.
But it wasn't a local party, it was a section of the german party completely under the control of the leadership of the NSDAP through the Auslands-Organisation, so much that only germans born in Germany could be fully registered members. I think that it was tolerated because of the good relations that Brazil had with Germany at the time and it was too small to bother the US. Maybe the american grip over South America wasn't so tight at the time.
In general, pro-German parties in the region have a somewhat greater presence than in OTL as a result of the increased Axis successes.