Viva Nueva Republica! : Philippines won the Phil Am war

[Namayan]

Chapter 13: Gunboat diplomacy

Late mid December 1915. There had been a strike that turned into a riot in Davao city, Japanese immigrant workers working in Banana plantations had went into a strike, and upon learning that their demands are not met they went on a protest, which turned violent as looting and destruction of property. The civil guard opened fire and 20 of the strikers are dead. It went out of the news, and Japan responded by sending their battleships to Davao as a show of force as 20 Japanese lay dead after the strike

View attachment 656635

Japanese ships on Davao.

In response the Philippines ready their coastal guns and ordered the garrison to ready the artillery and guns in case the Japanese ships might attack or bombard the city. They also sent the navy.

View attachment 656636

Filipino artillery regiment near the coast preparing for a possible battle

View attachment 656637
View attachment 656638
Philippine coastal defenses in Davao.

View attachment 656639
Philippine Navy ship sent to Davao

It was the Davao Crisis and it lasted a month until the US, and UK intervened, Japan withdrew her forces by January. This event would have a huge impact on the development of the Philippines.

Not feasible to have coastal defenses in Davao 1915.

As your POD, population of Davao city was less than 8,000 OTL. 21,000 OTL 1918.

Don't be biased on present day issues . The only places you need to protect back then were Luzon and certain parts of Visayas like Cebu, Panay, Iloilo which got an economy and a lot more people. Even US only bothered protecting Manila from the get go in early 1900s, despite with more cash.

So it is also a matter of cash. Priority will always be where the money is coming from. from your POD that is Manila. Cost of batteries alone is expensive. Cost of batteries would depend on how many inches those guns are. Then you got the concrete, labor cost, maintenance cost.

Hmm how about htat, I placed railways up north for the mines, farms and plantations. and to connect towns, cities. and to connect them to ports for trade

Focus on development as per your POD. You have too much present OTL foresight

Although your idea is correct, it is also a matter of profitability and capability to pay.

Railroads companies assuming you bid using private companies require profit. If this is totally government funded and government maintained, the government will be bankrupt. The Link I gave you stated 283 miles of railroad total cost was around $12m in OTL 1906. Priority will always be Major cities, Dagupan to Manila, Manila to Legazpi as most the economy is coming from that area initially.

Only until you develop places in time that those areas matter for railroads. Think of it as Return of Investment.

But if you got enough money why not. But that is assuming you have money. Philippines got limited funding, resources upon your POD. max in 1899 would go at $7m range.

 

[Slime_blob]

Not feasible to have coastal defenses in Davao 1915.

As your POD, population of Davao city was less than 8,000 OTL. 21,000 OTL 1918.

Don't be biased on present day issues . The only places you need to protect back then were Luzon and certain parts of Visayas like Cebu, Panay, Iloilo which got an economy and a lot more people. Even US only bothered protecting Manila from the get go in early 1900s, despite with more cash.

So it is also a matter of cash. Priority will always be where the money is coming from. from your POD that is Manila. Cost of batteries alone is expensive. Cost of batteries would depend on how many inches those guns are. Then you got the concrete, labor cost, maintenance cost.


Focus on development as per your POD. You have too much present OTL foresight

Although your idea is correct, it is also a matter of profitability and capability to pay.

Railroads companies assuming you bid using private companies require profit. If this is totally government funded and government maintained, the government will be bankrupt. The Link I gave you stated 283 miles of railroad total cost was around $12m in OTL 1906. Priority will always be Major cities, Dagupan to Manila, Manila to Legazpi as most the economy is coming from that area initially.

Only until you develop places in time that those areas matter for railroads. Think of it as Return of Investment.

But if you got enough money why not. But that is assuming you have money. Philippines got limited funding, resources upon your POD. max in 1899 would go at $7m range.

Hmmm They currently have loads of money as the constantly got it from the GPs as they play them to each other. And they are about to get loads more so no big deal on funding. They basically rumped up the budget as they currently have loads of money. Maybe at least 40M$ or more still in the treasury and to have more after that incident. I also rumped up the population a bit, the fact that the war with america killed 1 out of every 4 people in PI. 2M casualties out of a population of 8M in 1900s. So they have more people there. The Budget for the 1916 in the next Chapter will be shown. Currently the Philippines is running a budget surplus. 1915's budget was 60M Pesos and is currently increasing, though in this current rate the Philippines would get to deficit, though we may not know if it will until I sent the next chapter

 

[Deleted member 2186]

The Philippines winning the Philippine-American War? Interesting, watched!!!

So the Philippines being a independent country with a hungry Japan next door. Japan will have it easy in 1941/42.

 

[Namayan]

Hmmm They currently have loads of money as the constantly got it from the GPs as they play them to each other. And they are about to get loads more so no big deal on funding. They basically rumped up the budget as they currently have loads of money. Maybe at least 40M$ or more still in the treasury and to have more after that incident.

$40m isn't enough for your projects as stated in timeline.

I did state $12M for 283 miles of railroad per OTL 1906 pricing. I believe the point is this will limit your railroad length since you are not only spending in railroads. I dont know if the British railroads are cheaper per mile.

For guns, I believe the US spent around $2M for each 16 inch 50 caliber naval gun. 872k usd for 12 inch guns in 1910. Like the Railroad this will limit where you can place the gun, number of coastal defense.

That is why I said Davao was pointless defend as there are more highly populated places that need those batteries.

Do you have a rough estimate of what your ATL GDP using 1990 Geary Khamis size is in 1915? As a point of reference, OTL 1902 the Philippines had around $5.119B, for current gdp in 1902 that would put it roughly $339M. If assuming GDP tax ratio is 5%, around $16.9M per annum tax( OTL US Commonwealth under QUezon was around 1-2% gdp to tax ratio). So the question is how much percent for social services, infra and military divided at. I can help you figure your budget out since I did some research as far as 1902 to get the flow of how large my economy would be in Refuge timeline by 1935-39.

 

[Slime_blob]

$40m isn't enough for your projects as stated in timeline.

I did state $12M for 283 miles of railroad per OTL 1906 pricing. I believe the point is this will limit your railroad length since you are not only spending in railroads. I dont know if the British railroads are cheaper per mile.

For guns, I believe the US spent around $2M for each 16 inch 50 caliber naval gun. 872k usd for 12 inch guns in 1910. Like the Railroad this will limit where you can place the gun, number of coastal defense.

That is why I said Davao was pointless defend as there are more highly populated places that need those batteries.

Do you have a rough estimate of what your ATL GDP using 1990 Geary Khamis size is in 1915? As a point of reference, OTL 1902 the Philippines had around $5.119B, for current gdp in 1902 that would put it roughly $339M. If assuming GDP tax ratio is 5%, around $16.9M per annum tax( OTL US Commonwealth under QUezon was around 1-2% gdp to tax ratio). So the question is how much percent for social services, infra and military divided at. I can help you figure your budget out since I did some research as far as 1902 to get the flow of how large my economy would be in Refuge timeline by 1935-39.

It is just the average but was getting higher every year. Though alot of the coastal guns and artillery actually was just donated by the great powers especially France, UK, and US after the Palau Crisis as they have interest in the region. 793M dollars would be the budget in ITL dollar today. Most of it being spent on the Infra and for industrialization, Maybe 1/3 to 2/3 there. and the rest are there

 

[Slime_blob]

So the Philippines being a independent country with a hungry Japan next door. Japan will have it easy in 1941/42.

Japan will have to face a far stronger China ittl so i dont think so and PI would be wanked here,

 

[Slime_blob]

Chapter 14: Aftermath

The Davao crisis had directly and indirectly caused the great powers to aid the Philippines to defend their rights and interest in the region. The term great power playground was coined by many to what happened here. The golden age of Philippine Diplomacy started here.

"PRESIDENT TAFT OF THE UNITED STATES OF NORTH AMERICA, WE SEND YOU THIS TELEGRAPH TO DISCUSS THE FUTURE OF THE FAR EAST, TO SECURE BOTH OF OUR NATION'S INTEREST IN THE REGION. AS WE KNOW THERE HAD BEEN AN INCIDENT IN THE TOWN OF DAVAO IN MINDANAO ISLAND WHICH THE JAPANESE RESPONDED WITH AN UNPROVOCKED ACT OF AGRESSION. WE BELIEVE, THAT YOUR INTEREST OF KEEPING THE GATE TO CHINA IS ONE OF YOUR CONCERN. WE SENT THIS TELEGRAPH TO ASK FOR HELP AND AID IN ANY MEANS ESPECIALLY FINANCIALLY TO HELP SECURE BOTH OF OUR INTERESTS. DUE TO THE RECENT EVENTS WE SAW THE POSSIBILITY OF YOUR NATION'S INTEREST IN CHINA AND THE FAR EAST WOULD BE RUINED TREMENDOUSLY. OUR NATION THE PHILIPPINES THE ONLY MAIN GATE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEAS IN THE WEST WOULD BE CLOSED, IF OR ANY NATION TRIES TO OCCUPY INVADE OR SUBJEGATE THE FREE AND SOVEREIGN NATION OF THE PHILIPPINE REPUBLIC. WE DO SINCERELY HOPE THAT THIS REQUEST WILL BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY AND OUR WISHES GRANTED FOR THE BETTERMENT OF THE BOTH OF OUR NATIONS"

Telegraph to William Taft President of the United States 1912 - 1920


"YOUR MOST EXELENCY KAISER WILHELM II OF THE GERMAN EMPIRE. WE BELIEVE THAT OUR NATION'S INTEREST IS SIMMILAR WITH YOURS. AS THE UNPROVOCKED ACT OF JAPANESE AGRESSION HAPPENED IN OUR NATION. WE SURELY BELIEVE THAT YOU MUST MAKE SURE THAT THIS WAS NOT TO HAPPEN TO US. WE BELIEVE THAT A GREATER COOPERATION OF OUR NATIONS WOULD CERTAINLY STOP THIS EXPANSIONISM OF THE ROUGE NATION OF THE JAPANESE EMPIRE. IN ORDER TO DO THIS, WE WOULD ASK FOR ASSISTANCE ESPECIALLY FINANCIALLY AND ECONOMICALLY. WE HUMBLY HOPE THAT THIS REQUEST IS TO BE CONSIDERED AND APPROVED"

A Telegraph to the Kaiser

The Philippines started to cut a deal with Germany where they would be given a yearly grant of 25M Pound Sterling to help modernize the Philippine Armed Forces and most importantly to radically expand and strenghten the Philippine navy and defenses. And another 15M Pound Sterling for the Philippine Government for the modernization and infrastructure, industry and for industrialization for 5 years. This of course was in exchange for a secret alliance of the two nations. As Germany is confident that victory is assured, and the final push to Paris would just be a cakewalk. Germany would want an ally and a friend at the far east, simmilar to Japan of the UK. Though the Philippines was just toying with them, and was going for an another agreement but this time with the US to have the Philippines be granted a yearly cash grant to "secure both nation's interests" of about $20M annually until the great war was over. The United States Currently owned all former Russian railroads in China though sold by Russia to the US to have more of the funds they need to continue the war with the Central Powers. The antagonistic moves of Japan to nations it can pick on on the far east, and the instability in the two Chinas, and where Japan just went gunboat diplomacy in the Philippines had created this favourable conditions to the Philippines. The United States would also guarantee the independence of the Philippines. The agreements were signed in June 18 1916, the two leaders' overconfidence and opportunism on this is just too sweet to left unexploited.

 

[Slime_blob]

Chapter 15: Arsenal Expansion.

The Philippines had recently almost went to war with Japan a year ago, and with some smart diplomacy, they managed to convince two of the greatest and most powerfull nations on earth to aid them by giving them money for defense, industrialization, modernization, infra and other stuff.

With that secured, the Philippines are now having talks with the nations Argentina, and Chile to purchase their dreadnaughts. The fact that both nations after the naval arms race of the ABC of South America had dried their funds for a bit. Though at first, there are consideration about cheaper Brazillian ships, but when inspection of the Ship is over. They saw the dire condition of the ships, rusted and in very poor shape. They then turned into Chilean and Argeninian ships, luckily they are still in a very good condition, and governments are willing to sell them, 1 dreadnaught, and 2 pre dreadnaught battleships were bought. Though the fledgeling republic would want more to match Japan, they are now unwilling to sell more. As a result of this, the Philippines had ordered 1 new battlecruiser, 10 destroyers, 5 armored, 4 protected and 2 light cruisers, 3 gunboats, 1 training ship to be built in the local shipbuilding sites and 10 submarines were to be ordered, designed mainly by Germans for the subs, and ships designed by the British.

In the army, the Philippines had adopted a new doctrine, that can maximize the firepower. It is called the machine gun doctrine by many, it was the predecesor and inspiration of the German doctrine about the doctrine of using machine guns. As the Philippines can't field much manpower compared to the some kind of hypohotetical war between them and Japan. The bulk purchase of 7,500 M1895, 1,000 Vicker's Machinegun, and 3,500 Maxim guns by the Philippines to arm the army. Another purchase of at least four hundred artillery pieces is ordered.

Defenses were to be buffed as much as it can.

These actions had also made the Philippines to expand their industrial capacity, not only for military, but also for civilian use. Hundreds of factories are getting built, then mainly getting sold to private businesses mainly. Several more arsenals are created by the Philippines to cope with the increase demand of military materiel. The Philippines entered a new 5 year plan, this time, it was to significantly increase the industrial capacity of provincial capitals, regional cities, major towns and etc. Which in turn made the Philippines to invest more heavily in infrastructure. Other production and etc was to make the economy better. This increased resource extraction and creation largely. This siege mentality is because of the paranoia or the fear of foreign invasions and other threats which are generally excessive, if people today are asked. Though this is the most sensible desicion as people believe in that time to prevent the nation from getting taken over.

 

[Deleted member 2186]

4 dreadnaughts,13 new battlecruisers,

13 battlecruisers, not even Japan, United Kingdom ore the United States had so many.

 

[Namayan]

tame down your navy.

Dreadnoughts, battlecruisers are too expensive. Even Armored cruisers are expensive. 13 Battlecruisers means you will have more than Britain.

Check this out who has what:

The Naval Balance of Power in 1914

In 1914 the British Royal Navy (RN) remained the largest in the world. Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz, supported by Kaiser Wilhelm II, had attempted to create a German navy that could match the RN, but…

warandsecurity.com

1 Mikasa pre dread costs around $3M
1 Kongo battlecruiser costs around 2,500,000 British pounds or roughly around $10M
1 Nisshin Armored Cruiser 760,000 British pounds or around $3M
HMS Dreadnought is around $1.7M british pounds around $7M
Multiply that to how many you want.

If it is built locally, that requires coal, steel. a lot of steel.

Edit : change Mikasa cost from 13M to 3M.

 

[Slime_blob]

tame down your navy.

Dreadnoughts, battlecruisers are too expensive. Even Armored cruisers are expensive. 13 Battlecruisers means you will have more than Britain.

Check this out who has what:

The Naval Balance of Power in 1914

In 1914 the British Royal Navy (RN) remained the largest in the world. Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz, supported by Kaiser Wilhelm II, had attempted to create a German navy that could match the RN, but…

warandsecurity.com

1 Mikasa pre dread costs around $13M
1 Kongo battlecruiser costs around 2,500,000 British pounds or roughly around $10M
1 Nisshin Armored Cruiser 760,000 British pounds or around $3M
HMS Dreadnought is around $1.7M british pounds around $7M
Multiply that to how many you want.

If it is built locally, that requires coal, steel. a lot of steel.

The Philippines can just take a loan from Germany or other nations to have the money to build it and expand the mines and mills to have the steel.
Why is the pre dreadnaught cost more than the dreadnaught?

 

[Slime_blob]

13 battlecruisers, not even Japan, United Kingdom ore the United States had so many.

The siege mentality.... of the Philippines, the fact that they are surrounded by nations stronger than them while they are sitting in the middle of a strategic position with a land filled with riches

 

[Erizium]

The siege mentality.... of the Philippines, the fact that they are surrounded by nations stronger than them while they are sitting in the middle of a strategic position with a land filled with riches

Japan, which went through pretty much the same fear of conquest after Perry's arrival, doesn't even have the same naval capacity as the Philippines you're wanking here. Cpupled with the fact that Japan got a massive headstart in industrialization, better industrial capacity, a significantly larger population, and the deployment of hundreds of Japanese scholars to Western schools to even attempt building a navy of this size

If simply being a nation with an abundance of natural resources surrounded by hostile powers on all sides was enough to procure a navy second only to the British Empire, then the Ottomans, the Persians, hell, even the Chinese would have done the same thing

 

[Slime_blob]

Japan, which went through pretty much the same fear of conquest after Perry's arrival, doesn't even have the same naval capacity as the Philippines you're wanking here. Cpupled with the fact that Japan got a massive headstart in industrialization, better industrial capacity, a significantly larger population, and the deployment of hundreds of Japanese scholars to Western schools to even attempt building a navy of this size

If simply being a nation with an abundance of natural resources surrounded by hostile powers on all sides was enough to procure a navy second only to the British Empire, then the Ottomans, the Persians, hell, even the Chinese would have done the same thing

Ill fix it ok sure sure

 

[Namayan]

The Philippines can just take a loan from Germany or other nations to have the money to build it and expand the mines and mills to have the steel.
Why is the pre dreadnaught cost more than the dreadnaught?

That is too much a loan. No country is going to give Philippines that much loan

If you look closely at the link the closest economy even in the wank stage is 2x Greece since Japan by this time would be 6x times the size even at your wank stage.

Pre dread cost in 1890s though. cheaper if buy obsolete.

I will do the number crunching for you. at POD. Philippines economy size will 5-6 billion 1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars.

Even if 20% economy for 20 years is possible, which is impossible since even Japan did not grow that per annum in span of 20 years. Assuming it is 20% per annum Philippine economy will be at 15 billion for 1990. $15b in 1990 is around $2b in 1920. Building of 14 Kongos would cost $140M. That is the Battlecruiser alone initial cost, no salaries of sailors no maintenance cost.

That it is the size of the economy based on your story. average tax rates of Europe and US are around 10% of the economy. While even OTL Philippine commonwealth 1930s under US management couldn't even hit 5% tax to gdp ratio. 10% tax to gdp ratio is $200m, 5% is around $100M. No one is going to give Philippines loan if they know you cannot repay them.

More importantly if you financed the navy that big, budget from infra, army, social services will collapse.

Tame your expectations.

 

[Slime_blob]

That is too much a loan. No country is going to give Philippines that much loan

If you look closely at the link the closest economy even in the wank stage is 2x Greece since Japan by this time would be 6x times the size even at your wank stage.

Pre dread cost in 1890s though. cheaper if buy obsolete.

I will do the number crunching for you. at POD. Philippines economy size will 5-6 billion 1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars.

Even if 20% economy for 20 years is possible, which is impossible since even Japan did not grow that per annum in span of 20 years. Assuming it is 20% per annum Philippine economy will be at 15 billion for 1990. $15b in 1990 is around $2b in 1920. Building of 14 Kongos would cost $140M. That is the Battlecruiser alone initial cost, no salaries of sailors no maintenance cost.

That it is the size of the economy based on your story. average tax rates of Europe and US are around 10% of the economy. While even OTL Philippine commonwealth 1930s under US management couldn't even hit 5% tax to gdp ratio. 10% tax to gdp ratio is $200m, 5% is around $100M. No one is going to give Philippines loan if they know you cannot repay them.

More importantly if you financed the navy that big, budget from infra, army, social services will collapse.

Tame your expectations.

Can you give me the ship costs link

 

[Namayan]

Can you give me the ship costs link

Costs of warships 1900–18

This list reflects the results of the first organised effort to determine the costs of warships of all nations[1] involved in World War I. Australian pound $4.85 Austro-Hungarian krone ("crown") $0.197[2] Belgian franc $0.193 British pound $4.85 Bulgarian lev ("lion") $0.193 Canadian dollar...

military.wikia.org

Made a mistake on Mikasa should be 3M instead of 13M.

 

[Slime_blob]

Costs of warships 1900–18

This list reflects the results of the first organised effort to determine the costs of warships of all nations[1] involved in World War I. Australian pound $4.85 Austro-Hungarian krone ("crown") $0.197[2] Belgian franc $0.193 British pound $4.85 Bulgarian lev ("lion") $0.193 Canadian dollar...

military.wikia.org

Made a mistake on Mikasa should be 3M instead of 13M.

How many should i cut out there? at my newest threadmark

 

[Namayan]

How many should i cut out there? at my newest threadmark

depends on your budget. I have a rule on new purchase not going beyond 10-20% of naval budget. The rest for payment of sailors, maintenance, ammo, etc.

e.g. 200M total taxes. Half goes to the military. Navy gets around 60% since island nation. so your left with 60M. 10% is around 6M for new purchase. 12M if 20%.

Doctrine plays also a part of it. Like Jeune École doctrine vs Mahan Doctrine. Ecole for small less budget navies. Since budget is small, focusing on submarines and torpedo boat and destroyers.

Of course, a large military budget means(50% of the budget/5% of your GDP during peacetime) you have less for other things like railroad, roads, social services like education. That could mean slowing down on your literacy, worse health care, fewer railroads.

 

[Slime_blob]

depends on your budget. I have a rule on new purchase not going beyond 10-20% of naval budget. The rest for payment of sailors, maintenance, ammo, etc.

e.g. 200M total taxes. Half goes to the military. Navy gets around 60% since island nation. so your left with 60M. 10% is around 6M for new purchase. 12M if 20%.

Doctrine plays also a part of it. Like Jeune École doctrine vs Mahan Doctrine. Ecole for small less budget navies. Since budget is small, focusing on submarines and torpedo boat and destroyers.

Of course, a large military budget means(50% of the budget/5% of your GDP during peacetime) you have less for other things like railroad, roads, social services like education. That could mean slowing down on your literacy, worse health care, fewer railroads.

So is it enough rn? I'm aiming for a more balanced navy