I have allways been interested in this topic, and decided to write a proto-timeline about it. Parts of it are inspired by the video games "Crisis in the Kremlin", "Ostalgie" and "Mao's Legacy", as these games actually provide a good insight into the history and pollitics of many countries (even if the games are not allways completely realistic). I tried to be specific when it was possible, but I also had to stay vague when it comes to some countries, otherwise this post would have been like 15 pages long. Overall my question is, what do you guys think about my ideas? What is probable/possible and what isn't? Oh and I have one thing to add: Please don't kill me if you don't agree with my interpretation of some events or developments. Its normal that people have different opinions on things, and thats what discussions are there for, after all. Thank you
The whole world becoming socialist in the 20th century with a POD after the beginning of the cold war is difficult. This is not to say that it would have been impossible, just that it wasn't very likely (I'd also like to note that the way the cold war ended OTL was not very likely either). I actually wrote another longer and more pollitical timeline on this, but thats not the topic of this thread.
However the Soviet Union beeing the most powerfull nation on earth, with most countries in the world beeing socialist, or at least anti-imperialist and allied to the USSR, seems way more probable.
In the OTL 70s it actually seemed as if the USSR would win the cold war. Socialism and anti-imperialism were spreading in the third world (from 1969 to 1979 alone, 15 nations became socialist) and living standarts kept rising drasticly in Eastern Europe. Of course, with the beginning of the 80s, a new phase of the arms race set in, a series of crises stroke the socialist world and in the end, the USSR was dissolved.
But lets say that never happens, and things go in the USSRs favour. Most of Africa, Asia and Latin America becomes socialist, or at least anti-imperialist, during the 70s and 80s.
The USSR reconciliates with post-maoist China, Yugolsavia and (probably after long negotiations and a change in the local leadership) even Albania. A coalition of the communists and social democrats gains the majority in Japan, and the nation turns away from the USA, and towards the USSR and China. Under joint sino-soviet pressure relations between both Koreas normalize, however the situation in the ROK remains tense with mass protests beeing crushed brutally. Its also possible that Thailand and the Phillipines turn socialist, as both had powerfull communist parties and guerillas. India remains left-wing and pro-soviet, and relations with China slowly begin to improve after a series of agreements on border corrections. In Pakistan, Bhutto is never overthrown, and his leftist course continues (should the war in Afghanistan still take place, the islamist extremists would have no chance, considering Pakistan remains soviet-alligned). Even if Iran becomes a theocracy like in OTL the Tudeh party remains one of the most powerfull opposition groups, and in this TL it would likely get more foreign support. Iraq under Saddam was actually not that pro-soviet in OTL (though polliticaly there was much talk of "friendship with the USSR", Iraq actually did most of its trade with the US and later banned the communist party). In this TL there would likely be a change in the leadership of the Baath party, and under a continued Baath-communist coalition Iraq would stay on a pro-soviet and leftist course. Its also possible that the UAR survives, and becomes a strong soviet ally in the middle east. If this happens the PLO would have much more foreign aid, and Israel would likely be forced to make large-scale concessions. The US rapidly looses influence in the world, and the dollar falls appart. The other NATO nations pursue an increasingly independent pollicy (as the socialist camp continues to grow, trade and good relation with it become more and more important), and the organization itself is close to dissolution. France, under its social democratic government, establishes close trade relations with the USSR. Inner german relations begin to improve, and in exchange for increased trade with the socialist camp the FRG agrees to the establishment of a de-militarized zone in West Berlin. The west german government also agrees to end the poaching of the GDRs skilled workers, so personal traffic between the two nations finally becomes easier. The historical compromise continues in Italy and radical leftist groups (like the red guards) remain influential (its also possible that Italy becomes socialist during the 70s or 80s, either through revolution or the anti-monopolist strategy. After all Italy was the western european country with the most powerfull communist movement during the later decades of the cold war. Yet if the USA and their remaining close allies decide to crush this italian revolution, the consequences would be unpredictable). Britain would likely remain under a Labour government that keeps good relations with the USSR, and the Unions would continue to ve very powerfull. Alternatively Britain could adopt a thatchrism-esque pollicy and remain europes lone crusader against the socialist world. This is quite unlikely considering the UK is dependent on trade with the continent, however if Britain moves to the right, the IRA and scottish seperatists would be a lot more powerfull than in OTL. The Troubles are likely to last longer, if they end at all (its also possible that Northern Ireland eventually re-unites with Ireland after another full-blown rising). What happens to the Iberian peninsula is hard to predict, but there is a chance that Portugal might actually become socialist. Having a traditionally strong communist movement, Turkey and Greece could become socialist. Yet, in Greeces case, a continued PASOK government is more likely in the short-term.
By this point the ruble is the dominant currency in international trade, and the USA and its remaining hard-line anti-communist allies struggle to obtain foreign currencies (since the USSR prevents the exchange of rubles into dollars. What an irony, actually). At this point the USA has two options: Continue an aggressive course against the ever growing socialist camp, or making concessions in exchange for the lifting of trade embargoes. By this point, its very likely that the USA goes with the secons option. The cold war is nearing its end and it seems that the USSR will prevail in this long standing confrontation, beeing the most powerfull force in the world. After long discusions the OGAS project is eventually implemented in the USSR, and most of the other socialist nations begin to develope similiar systems. Communist parties and groups become increasingly popular in the remaining capitalist countries (many "western" nations allready had quite strong communist movements in OTL), and with the dawn of the 21th century it seems that the final vicrory of socialism is going to become reality in the near future.
The whole world becoming socialist in the 20th century with a POD after the beginning of the cold war is difficult. This is not to say that it would have been impossible, just that it wasn't very likely (I'd also like to note that the way the cold war ended OTL was not very likely either). I actually wrote another longer and more pollitical timeline on this, but thats not the topic of this thread.
However the Soviet Union beeing the most powerfull nation on earth, with most countries in the world beeing socialist, or at least anti-imperialist and allied to the USSR, seems way more probable.
In the OTL 70s it actually seemed as if the USSR would win the cold war. Socialism and anti-imperialism were spreading in the third world (from 1969 to 1979 alone, 15 nations became socialist) and living standarts kept rising drasticly in Eastern Europe. Of course, with the beginning of the 80s, a new phase of the arms race set in, a series of crises stroke the socialist world and in the end, the USSR was dissolved.
But lets say that never happens, and things go in the USSRs favour. Most of Africa, Asia and Latin America becomes socialist, or at least anti-imperialist, during the 70s and 80s.
The USSR reconciliates with post-maoist China, Yugolsavia and (probably after long negotiations and a change in the local leadership) even Albania. A coalition of the communists and social democrats gains the majority in Japan, and the nation turns away from the USA, and towards the USSR and China. Under joint sino-soviet pressure relations between both Koreas normalize, however the situation in the ROK remains tense with mass protests beeing crushed brutally. Its also possible that Thailand and the Phillipines turn socialist, as both had powerfull communist parties and guerillas. India remains left-wing and pro-soviet, and relations with China slowly begin to improve after a series of agreements on border corrections. In Pakistan, Bhutto is never overthrown, and his leftist course continues (should the war in Afghanistan still take place, the islamist extremists would have no chance, considering Pakistan remains soviet-alligned). Even if Iran becomes a theocracy like in OTL the Tudeh party remains one of the most powerfull opposition groups, and in this TL it would likely get more foreign support. Iraq under Saddam was actually not that pro-soviet in OTL (though polliticaly there was much talk of "friendship with the USSR", Iraq actually did most of its trade with the US and later banned the communist party). In this TL there would likely be a change in the leadership of the Baath party, and under a continued Baath-communist coalition Iraq would stay on a pro-soviet and leftist course. Its also possible that the UAR survives, and becomes a strong soviet ally in the middle east. If this happens the PLO would have much more foreign aid, and Israel would likely be forced to make large-scale concessions. The US rapidly looses influence in the world, and the dollar falls appart. The other NATO nations pursue an increasingly independent pollicy (as the socialist camp continues to grow, trade and good relation with it become more and more important), and the organization itself is close to dissolution. France, under its social democratic government, establishes close trade relations with the USSR. Inner german relations begin to improve, and in exchange for increased trade with the socialist camp the FRG agrees to the establishment of a de-militarized zone in West Berlin. The west german government also agrees to end the poaching of the GDRs skilled workers, so personal traffic between the two nations finally becomes easier. The historical compromise continues in Italy and radical leftist groups (like the red guards) remain influential (its also possible that Italy becomes socialist during the 70s or 80s, either through revolution or the anti-monopolist strategy. After all Italy was the western european country with the most powerfull communist movement during the later decades of the cold war. Yet if the USA and their remaining close allies decide to crush this italian revolution, the consequences would be unpredictable). Britain would likely remain under a Labour government that keeps good relations with the USSR, and the Unions would continue to ve very powerfull. Alternatively Britain could adopt a thatchrism-esque pollicy and remain europes lone crusader against the socialist world. This is quite unlikely considering the UK is dependent on trade with the continent, however if Britain moves to the right, the IRA and scottish seperatists would be a lot more powerfull than in OTL. The Troubles are likely to last longer, if they end at all (its also possible that Northern Ireland eventually re-unites with Ireland after another full-blown rising). What happens to the Iberian peninsula is hard to predict, but there is a chance that Portugal might actually become socialist. Having a traditionally strong communist movement, Turkey and Greece could become socialist. Yet, in Greeces case, a continued PASOK government is more likely in the short-term.
By this point the ruble is the dominant currency in international trade, and the USA and its remaining hard-line anti-communist allies struggle to obtain foreign currencies (since the USSR prevents the exchange of rubles into dollars. What an irony, actually). At this point the USA has two options: Continue an aggressive course against the ever growing socialist camp, or making concessions in exchange for the lifting of trade embargoes. By this point, its very likely that the USA goes with the secons option. The cold war is nearing its end and it seems that the USSR will prevail in this long standing confrontation, beeing the most powerfull force in the world. After long discusions the OGAS project is eventually implemented in the USSR, and most of the other socialist nations begin to develope similiar systems. Communist parties and groups become increasingly popular in the remaining capitalist countries (many "western" nations allready had quite strong communist movements in OTL), and with the dawn of the 21th century it seems that the final vicrory of socialism is going to become reality in the near future.
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