Althistory Bavaria
Banned
What would happen? How would the cold war evolve? Could communism win if the US proved to be weak in fighting against it?
US backs down over the cuban missile crisis
- Thread starter Althistory Bavaria
- Start date
If Kennedy inexplicably goes, "Ok, you win", lifts the blockade, and lets the missiles stay in Cuba, there will be blind rage on both sides of the aisle, and calls for his immediate impeachment. He probably doesn't go to Dallas in an open convertible next year, because people in Houston and Corpus Christi and other TX cities within striking range of Cuba are still making death threats.
Kruschev remains in power. Goldwater probably wins in 1964 and is given the football in January 1965. Not good. This timeline may go even hotter than other Cuban Missile War timelines.
Kruschev remains in power. Goldwater probably wins in 1964 and is given the football in January 1965. Not good. This timeline may go even hotter than other Cuban Missile War timelines.
Krushchev doesn’t just stay in power: he gets massively more entrenched with collossal credibility and prestige.
It’d be an unparalleled disaster for US interests.
It’d be an unparalleled disaster for US interests.
RousseauX
Donor
Defense secretary
McNamara basically said do nothing: his logic was that the Soviets already had enough missiles/bombers as is and adding another 50 or so in Cuba wouldn't really change the strategic calculation
FillyofDelphi
Banned
I fully expect Goldwater would double down on the Jupiter deployment in Turkey as a result of this; certainly he'd get the American people's support if he casts it as a need to be able to "lob one into the men's room at the Kremlin" just as quickly as the Soviets can hit the National Mall: even those soft on Nuclear Threats and pushing for mere containment/deterance would accept that as a requirement in order for MAD to have any teeth. So, we don't see the detante/slowdown but rather a ramp up of the Missile Race right in the middle of the Space Race...
There's a very real chance that we see a push for orbital weapons as an attempt to "one up" the Soviets on the ability to deploy nukes, perhaps with the goal of making the illusive "non-interceptable/disruptable" ace in the hole. I also expect there to be a renewed push to get Castro out of power, since by backing down there's going to be no "no invasion" pledge and Havanna will be under a generally heavier/more visable Soviet thumb with their troops stationed on the island. Hell, we might even try to make our own "Cuba" as a policy of pushing back against the Soviets rather than just trying to contain them once they have a foothold in the Western Hemisphere: the Prague Spring is coming up...
Here’s what it would allow: Soviet-driven arms control negotiations on the number of long range missiles and boomers, where the US has advantages.
Probably the closest JFK could have come to a backdown would be an open trade of the missiles in Cuba for the Jupiters in Turkey. For an argument that this would not have been politically disastrous for JFK, see my post at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...issile-crisis-going-hot.336178/#post-10006914
Indeed, a leader of the Young Americans for Freedom, who were picketing the White House with placards reading INVADE! and APPEASEMENT IS FOR COWARDS, when asked about a Cuba-Turkey missile trade, said "Sure, we'd go for that." https://books.google.com/books?id=3EHqCQAAQBAJ&pg=PA117
Indeed, a leader of the Young Americans for Freedom, who were picketing the White House with placards reading INVADE! and APPEASEMENT IS FOR COWARDS, when asked about a Cuba-Turkey missile trade, said "Sure, we'd go for that." https://books.google.com/books?id=3EHqCQAAQBAJ&pg=PA117
RousseauX
Donor
that's not different than otl though with various assassination attempts against castro
and there's not gonna be an invasion: you don't invade cuba if it has nuclear weapons on it
RightHoJeeves
Banned
I think a major reevaluation of US power would occur . If the US is unwilling to assert itself in its own backyard what hope does it have to resist communist expansion in SE Asia, Berlin or Taiwan? JFK would be seen as a weak pushover both domestically and abroad and that could encourage communist countries to be more aggressive.
Assuming no WWIII, and the historically inevitable collapse of the USSR, does Cuba end up a nuclear-armed Juche state (hopefully not a Posadist one) in our backyard ?
Backing down on Cuba also means JFK/LBJ lack the political capital to push Civil Rights through. If Goldwater wins in 1964, any gains will immediately be reversed and protests will be punished hard under the meme that it's all a front for Communist subversion. Most of the South is now 15 minutes away from incineration, and their anger and paranoia's gonna be extreme. Things will get noticably uglier and worse than OTL.
I suppose it also depends on what "backing down" means. If it gets to the "quarantine", the naval confrontations, etc. - then the Kennedy administration has a massive black eye.
If, however, they take McNamara's advice and never even raise the issue of it being a problem: well, then, there's plenty of room for it to go differently, and not take the hit.
If, however, they take McNamara's advice and never even raise the issue of it being a problem: well, then, there's plenty of room for it to go differently, and not take the hit.
Althistory Bavaria
Banned
Could a mindset like in the book 'The Gladiator' by Harry Turtledove arise? Something like 'The US, the heartland of capitalism itself, is not ready to fight communism and defend its outdated ideology. They don't belive themselves anymore'. This would greatly bolster communist popularity in the west.
The US did back down when the missile sites were quietly removed from Turkey which was what had prompted the sites to be set up in Cuba in the first place.
To have gone to the brink of war only to back down with absolutely nothing to show for it will destroy US credibility around the world with allies, neutrals and enemies alike.
But submarine-launched Polaris missiles had made the Jupiters obsolete, anyway. indeed, in 1961 JFK had wanted to cancel the delivery of the Jupiters, and might have done so if not for Khrushchev's renewal of his Berlin ultimatum. So removing some obsolete missiles and not even having to acknowledge publicly that there had been a trade-off can hardly be called a backdown IMO.
RousseauX
Donor
idk I think that's always greatly overstated, people were saying the same thing about pulling out of Vietnam but nothing really happened
Unless you were part of the South Vietnamese government and supporters that were left in the country.
marathag
Banned
Because even the Polaris A1 missile, even with it's sketchy warhead, was a hundred times more survivable and useful in its hosting Boomers than the already obsolete missiles in Turkey and Italy
With no crisis, they would have been pulled anyway, as the USN was halfway thru the '41 for Freedom' building Program of Boomers from the George Washington, Ethan Allen and Lafayette classes, just like the SNARK cruise missile were already pulled as the Hound Dog stand off missiles were added to B-52s before the crisis