UNSUNKEN SUN: WWIII and Beyond
- Thread starter theothresh
- Start date
You've got the right idea. Its gonna be a losing war for the allies for the first year or two.
Don’t forget to thread mark this one! https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/unsunken-sun-wwiii-and-beyond.497000/post-21074888
Don't wanna get too far ahead of myself but I want you all to know I taught myself how apportionment equations work just for this timeline.
👀
👀
Ficboy
Banned
With a World War III that breaks out in 1948 just three years after its predecessor conflict the world is going to not want another war of this scale ever happen in a millennia. Pop culture and sports will irrevocably changed much less compared to 1962 and 1983 when the Soviets actually had a decent nuclear arsenal. Eastern Europe is going to be devastated very badly in this conflict.
CHAPTER 3: DON'T WORRY
CHAPTER 3
Don’t Worry
JULY 9th, 1948
Truman looked at the camera dead-eyed and read his short but grave announcement.
“My fellow Americans it is with great misfortune that I inform you that we have entered a state of war with the Soviet Union, and its client states. We have always stood for peace and stability, but Soviet actions in Germany have gone against international agreements. Agreements that they themselves were a party to. It is my understanding that our former allies against fascism perhaps saw these past few years as a short break in their plans for international communism. We will never allow this. We have harnessed the atom, tamed the seas, and conquered foreign skies. This will be our greatest test in our nation's short history but don’t worry. I assure you, we will be victorious. We will stamp out communism, just as we did fascism. We will fight on, however long it takes.”
-
Red Army War Strategy
General Zhukov overlooking Red Army troops training in rough forested hills.
There was to be no phoney war at the start of the Third World War, that was to be sure. The war started with a quick and ruthless occupation of Berlin. Most allied Troops at that point had been airlifted out by that point due to there being no point in defending a pocket of land hundreds of miles away from the border.
For the newly returned Zhukov from internal exile and the Red Army, their orders were to march to the North Sea as soon as possible. To do so they would need to break through Central Europe in which there were 3 possible routes. First was the North German Plains, Second was the Fulda Gap in Thuringia, and lastly, there was the Danube River Valley through occupied Austria. Zhukov decided that the Red Army should focus its efforts on breaking through primarily in the Fulda Gap, and in Austria. Zhukov knew time was of the essence as the Soviet Union held the numerical advantage, and that the Allies were not fully mobilized yet. It was to be the Soviet’s time to blitz through Europe.
The Soviets would also attempt to leverage the full might of their sphere with many of their satellite governments being called into the war and developing auxiliary units. Romania, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Bulgaria would also be turned into wholesale resource depots for the war with the Soviets ready to leave no stone unturned. Forced industrialization and collective farming programs were heavily pushed upon the Eastern European nations.
Greek troops on a hilltop.
Stalin would reverse course on his previous agreement with former Prime Minister Churchill on Greece. Hoping to gain a new ally and snuff out a potential front for the allies he had the Red Army poor across the border from Bulgaria into Greek Thrace.
While Stalin had hoped this would ease relations with Belgrade, and perhaps convince Yugoslavia to join the war. T provoked if anything more of a negative reaction out of Tito, who went on to comment on the situation “Greece shall become just another puppet in the hands of Stalin”. Tito would later go on to announce his country’s intent on neutrality in the conflict.
-
Western Europe, and The Allied Strategy
The Allies understood fully that they stood at an initial disadvantage. The very fresh Operation Doorknock plans took this into account. The plan was to hold out in Germany until the allies, and more specifically America could fully mobilize. Multiple fall back lines were designated back to the Rhine and even the Maginot with more fortification built upon each. When the criteria are fully met the Allies would break the Soviet assault and push back.
There remained one very important matter that separated this war from the last though. Atomic Weaponry. In July 1948 the USA had a stockpile of about 50 or so atomic bombs. While many citizens stateside expected them to be used as the war began, the reality of the situation set in. No allied bomber could reach the Soviet Union to drop one. In fact, the only plan to use atom bombs so far was a failsafe in the event of the soviets overrunning Germany. If that were to occur the US was committed to bombing strategic locations in Europe to halt Soviet progression.
Reaction to the outbreak of yet another World War in Western Europe prompted an initial protest by some left-wing groups but was quickly snuffed out by nationalist sentiment, and the outlawing of many communist parties. The war even brought stability to a number of governments such as the French Fourth Republic with Prime Minister Schuman going on to lead a wartime coalition government.
In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Clement Attlee’s speech to the House of Commons on the outbreak of war was unsurprisingly overshadowed by the ex-Prime Minister Winston Churchill with many papers giving his front-page headlines. The most famous parts being:
Churchill at a Conference.
“Just 3 years ago we vanquished with our allies an evil empire. One that engulfed a continent, terrorized it and massacred it in the name of so-called ‘noble’ causes. Treachery in any form is still treachery. The Soviet Union has enslaved those same poor souls of Eastern Europe who were victim to the Nazi menace and shackled them to Moscow. I ask all my fellow Britons what difference is it to those under the boot whether they are Fascist or Communist.”
“This shall be our chance to right the wrongs we have ourselves committed. The abandonment of the claims of those exiled in the last war such as the Poles should have never happened. We must never trade the freedoms of those no matter how far away for compromise with dictators. We failed our allies when we accepted Stalin's reign over Eastern Europe. We shall never give up the cause of liberty for all men.”
“We shall fight them as we have done against any other foe, without surrender, without weakness. We shall fight them with increasing bravery, ingenuity, and lionhearted British men, and women. WE SHALL FIGHT THEM IN GERMANY. IN THE RUINS OF ALL PREVIOUS WARS. WE SHALL BREAK THEIR IRON CURTAIN THEY HIDE BEHIND. WE SHALL FIGHT ON TILL ALL THE OLD CAPITALS OF THE CONTINENT ARE FREE. WE SHALL FIGHT ON TILL THE HAMMER AND SICKLE ARE BROKEN FOREVERMORE! WE SHALL FIGHT FOR THE ETERNAL PEACE!”
Shell Mex House
Churchill's speech would go on to further raise his and to some extent the Conservative Party’s popularity from its post-war dip. A new coalition government with Attlee still as Prime Minister would come about as a result. The war would also increase the importance of the High Explosive Research project headed up by Viscount Charles Portal. The project’s funding would be greatly increased and be relocated from its original headquarters in the Shell Mex House offices in London to the more safe and isolated Australia
Bundeswehr recruits going through old equipment. Much of it having to be later altered.
Another major development for the Allies was the rushed creation of the new Bundeswehr. Even though the Trizone had yet to gain independence, it would like the US, have a military that predated its supposed state in origin. This was largely done to shore up more troops in defense against the Soviets. The Bundeswehr would be lightly equipped with mismatched old equipment from both sides of the last war. The Bundeswehr would be subservient to 5 Star General Eisenhower in his new role as Supreme Allied Commander of Europe after a short 1-month stint as President of Columbia University.
Caudillo Franco speaking on the radio.
Talks would also begin between the Allies and Caudillo Franco of Spain over his possible support in the conflict. Franco was a hardline anti-communist and in dire need of capital for his nation still in bad condition since the civil war. The very beginnings of a possible deal would emerge in the fall of 1948 but would require work to facilitate Franco’s image enough not to cause a large backlash in the west.
Don’t Worry
JULY 9th, 1948
Truman looked at the camera dead-eyed and read his short but grave announcement.
“My fellow Americans it is with great misfortune that I inform you that we have entered a state of war with the Soviet Union, and its client states. We have always stood for peace and stability, but Soviet actions in Germany have gone against international agreements. Agreements that they themselves were a party to. It is my understanding that our former allies against fascism perhaps saw these past few years as a short break in their plans for international communism. We will never allow this. We have harnessed the atom, tamed the seas, and conquered foreign skies. This will be our greatest test in our nation's short history but don’t worry. I assure you, we will be victorious. We will stamp out communism, just as we did fascism. We will fight on, however long it takes.”
-
Red Army War Strategy
General Zhukov overlooking Red Army troops training in rough forested hills.
There was to be no phoney war at the start of the Third World War, that was to be sure. The war started with a quick and ruthless occupation of Berlin. Most allied Troops at that point had been airlifted out by that point due to there being no point in defending a pocket of land hundreds of miles away from the border.
For the newly returned Zhukov from internal exile and the Red Army, their orders were to march to the North Sea as soon as possible. To do so they would need to break through Central Europe in which there were 3 possible routes. First was the North German Plains, Second was the Fulda Gap in Thuringia, and lastly, there was the Danube River Valley through occupied Austria. Zhukov decided that the Red Army should focus its efforts on breaking through primarily in the Fulda Gap, and in Austria. Zhukov knew time was of the essence as the Soviet Union held the numerical advantage, and that the Allies were not fully mobilized yet. It was to be the Soviet’s time to blitz through Europe.
The Soviets would also attempt to leverage the full might of their sphere with many of their satellite governments being called into the war and developing auxiliary units. Romania, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Bulgaria would also be turned into wholesale resource depots for the war with the Soviets ready to leave no stone unturned. Forced industrialization and collective farming programs were heavily pushed upon the Eastern European nations.
Greek troops on a hilltop.
Stalin would reverse course on his previous agreement with former Prime Minister Churchill on Greece. Hoping to gain a new ally and snuff out a potential front for the allies he had the Red Army poor across the border from Bulgaria into Greek Thrace.
While Stalin had hoped this would ease relations with Belgrade, and perhaps convince Yugoslavia to join the war. T provoked if anything more of a negative reaction out of Tito, who went on to comment on the situation “Greece shall become just another puppet in the hands of Stalin”. Tito would later go on to announce his country’s intent on neutrality in the conflict.
-
Western Europe, and The Allied Strategy
The Allies understood fully that they stood at an initial disadvantage. The very fresh Operation Doorknock plans took this into account. The plan was to hold out in Germany until the allies, and more specifically America could fully mobilize. Multiple fall back lines were designated back to the Rhine and even the Maginot with more fortification built upon each. When the criteria are fully met the Allies would break the Soviet assault and push back.
There remained one very important matter that separated this war from the last though. Atomic Weaponry. In July 1948 the USA had a stockpile of about 50 or so atomic bombs. While many citizens stateside expected them to be used as the war began, the reality of the situation set in. No allied bomber could reach the Soviet Union to drop one. In fact, the only plan to use atom bombs so far was a failsafe in the event of the soviets overrunning Germany. If that were to occur the US was committed to bombing strategic locations in Europe to halt Soviet progression.
Reaction to the outbreak of yet another World War in Western Europe prompted an initial protest by some left-wing groups but was quickly snuffed out by nationalist sentiment, and the outlawing of many communist parties. The war even brought stability to a number of governments such as the French Fourth Republic with Prime Minister Schuman going on to lead a wartime coalition government.
In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Clement Attlee’s speech to the House of Commons on the outbreak of war was unsurprisingly overshadowed by the ex-Prime Minister Winston Churchill with many papers giving his front-page headlines. The most famous parts being:
Churchill at a Conference.
“Just 3 years ago we vanquished with our allies an evil empire. One that engulfed a continent, terrorized it and massacred it in the name of so-called ‘noble’ causes. Treachery in any form is still treachery. The Soviet Union has enslaved those same poor souls of Eastern Europe who were victim to the Nazi menace and shackled them to Moscow. I ask all my fellow Britons what difference is it to those under the boot whether they are Fascist or Communist.”
“This shall be our chance to right the wrongs we have ourselves committed. The abandonment of the claims of those exiled in the last war such as the Poles should have never happened. We must never trade the freedoms of those no matter how far away for compromise with dictators. We failed our allies when we accepted Stalin's reign over Eastern Europe. We shall never give up the cause of liberty for all men.”
“We shall fight them as we have done against any other foe, without surrender, without weakness. We shall fight them with increasing bravery, ingenuity, and lionhearted British men, and women. WE SHALL FIGHT THEM IN GERMANY. IN THE RUINS OF ALL PREVIOUS WARS. WE SHALL BREAK THEIR IRON CURTAIN THEY HIDE BEHIND. WE SHALL FIGHT ON TILL ALL THE OLD CAPITALS OF THE CONTINENT ARE FREE. WE SHALL FIGHT ON TILL THE HAMMER AND SICKLE ARE BROKEN FOREVERMORE! WE SHALL FIGHT FOR THE ETERNAL PEACE!”
Shell Mex House
Churchill's speech would go on to further raise his and to some extent the Conservative Party’s popularity from its post-war dip. A new coalition government with Attlee still as Prime Minister would come about as a result. The war would also increase the importance of the High Explosive Research project headed up by Viscount Charles Portal. The project’s funding would be greatly increased and be relocated from its original headquarters in the Shell Mex House offices in London to the more safe and isolated Australia
Bundeswehr recruits going through old equipment. Much of it having to be later altered.
Another major development for the Allies was the rushed creation of the new Bundeswehr. Even though the Trizone had yet to gain independence, it would like the US, have a military that predated its supposed state in origin. This was largely done to shore up more troops in defense against the Soviets. The Bundeswehr would be lightly equipped with mismatched old equipment from both sides of the last war. The Bundeswehr would be subservient to 5 Star General Eisenhower in his new role as Supreme Allied Commander of Europe after a short 1-month stint as President of Columbia University.
Caudillo Franco speaking on the radio.
Talks would also begin between the Allies and Caudillo Franco of Spain over his possible support in the conflict. Franco was a hardline anti-communist and in dire need of capital for his nation still in bad condition since the civil war. The very beginnings of a possible deal would emerge in the fall of 1948 but would require work to facilitate Franco’s image enough not to cause a large backlash in the west.
I ultimately had to split this chapter into 2 different ones. The next will touch up on the US domestic situation, Asia, and hopefully the Middle East.
No, it is "still" a conventional war, I think Stalin started this was at this time because Russia itself could not be attacked directly with nukes (he didn't care about the rest). As soon as Russia has Nukes, he will use them (outside of Russia). It is a strange situation, that the only targets for these Nukes are outside the core coutry of both nucelar powers
SysyphusOfEphyra
Banned
Remember Portugal too! They were not called into WW2 with the Anglo-Potuguese alliance due to fears of triggering a Spanish entry. With the target being the USSR and Franco already talking about coming to the Allies that worry is a moot point. They need all the help they can get.
Confused the Americans have the Flying Fortress bombers that could fly from Canada in to Siberia whilst not where the fighting is it would still hurt Russia the same goes for Japan the American can his the island that the Russians took and as an after thought could again bomb Russia and they could even hit the Russians from the the Middle East lots of option.
Yes, but very little "hard" information on the location of the targets that they need to hit, Russian infrastructure, location of factories, even towns was not known by the Allied Forces.
They couldn't hit Russia where it would matter the most. They still may very well hit those regions if needed though.
Taking out Baku and Ploiesti is AFAIK sufficient to make the USSR have a very bad time.
I’ve mentioned this in some other threads. Russia never experienced the effects of strategic bombing on the scale that had been unleashed on Germany and Japan. Imagine the psychological effects just 500 Lancaster bombers would have on massed Russian troops. Remember the Wallies know every possible marshaling area in Germany and Austria. A round the clock bombing campaign of Lancasters, B-17s, B-24s, and B-29s would be hell on earth for the Russian forces. The Wallies wouldnt even need much accuracy. Just turn eastern Germany into a moonscape. That’s not even counting the Wallies tactical airpower.
ric350
ric350
RamscoopRaider
Donor
In 1948 Western allied readiness is basically nill, that sort of bombing is probably going to take 6 months to a year to set up, by which point the Soviets have probably reached the Pyrennes, and will likely be moot as the B-36 will be rushed into service to start hitting Russian cities with nukes
What's the status of the B-36? What about stripped down and extra fuel tanked RB-29's to recon and find the targets?
That's a strange and ahistorical surge of optimism on the part of British and American warplanners. The then existent US War plan, War Plan Halfmoon which was a variant of the Pincher series, stated that no feasible defense of continental western Europe northeast of the Pyrennees was possible. The British at the time concurred, with a defense paper in June of 1948 observing that even without any degree of mobilization or reinforcement, the Soviets would have a 2:1 strategic superiority in manpower and 5:1 in armor, artillery, and tactical airpower. Given proper force concentration and operational maneuver, which the Soviets in the late-40s were the masters at, this easily translates into tactical superiorities of 10:1 or more on the key breakthrough sectors.
The problem is they aren't prepped to do it. While the USAF identified bombing Baku in the late 1940s as an achilles heel for the Soviets, it also noted the only feasible bases for this were from the Suez region in Egypt. But in 1948 these bases were completely incapable to support a atomic strategic bombing campaign: the runways would not be lengthened to take B-29s until 1950 and the necessary refueling stations and storage/assembly facilities were never constructed. The base was also noted as vulnerable to a Soviet ground invasion of the Middle East: even if the Soviets only seize the Mideast up to Palestine, that was noted to be enough for them to neutralize the facilities using tactical air power.
And even leaving aside the dubious assumptions there-in, this is a complete fantasy in 1948. The strategic bombing fleets of 1945 no longer exist: the British don't have the capacity to put up raids of 500 bombers at once, let alone sustain a major campaign. Neither does SAC, given the degradation in inventory, crew skills, and support infrastructure. The total global number of strategic bombers available to the United States Air Force in 1948 was between eight and nine hundred aircraft, of which 60% were grounded for maintenance problems at any given time as of 1950 (a number which was indicated to be an improvement from the years 1949 and 1948). This is before we consider the Soviet improvements in air defense over the prior three years, which were considerable. In tactical air power the figures are even worse, with the Soviets in possession of overwhelming numerical superiority and rough technical equality.
Might as well not exist. In 1948, the only B-36 variant available were a handful of B-36As. These were the OG design, incapable of carrying atomic bombs, and not yet ready for operational service. The improved B-36B wouldn't enter operational service until 1950 and suffered from serious teething problem for years afterward, not to mention would likely suffer heavy losses. SAC projected anywhere up to 50% losses to aggressively intercepted air raids and subsequent experience in the Korean War showed these projections to be somewhat optimistic, with
An aging legacy reconnaissance plane doesn't have very good odds of surviving the Soviet air defenses as they were in 1948 long enough to systematically photograph the immense interior of the Soviet Union for analysis to assemble a coherent-enough picture to prosecute a strategic bombing campaign. We're talking deep penetration sorties into the heart of Soviet industrial regions, hundreds or even thousands of kilometers deep within Soviet borders (never mind the distance from the bases), not skirting along the edges of Soviet air space unopposed, which was the limit of what American air reconnaissance was comfortable with doing in the late-1940s. It wasn't until 1954, when SAC began fielding a whole new generation of aircraft under the Truman arms build-up that such deep reconnaissance missions were deemed feasible and carried out.
"A NEED TO KNOW: THE ROLE OF AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE IN WAR PLANNING, 1945-1953" puts the problem quite bluntly in discussing the issue at the start of the Korean War:
"Nevertheless, technological limitations blocked efforts to gather target information from the Soviet heartland. Existing jet aircraft lacked sufficient range and modified [propeller] bombers lacked the speed and altitude needed for survival. This technological hurdle confronted aerial reconnaissance throughout the early years of the Cold War." -Page 179
And this is merely the issue of collection, which is only 1/5th of the intelligence process. Again, from A New To Know:
"Obsolescent equipment and inadequate attention the entire intelligence cycle raised doubts over plans for strategic air war. Intelligence shortfalls showed that planning, direction, production, and dissemination of intelligence material mattered as well as collection. Without well-trained analysts, photo interpreters, electronic specialists, and other intelligence personnel, even good aerial photographs or clear Ferret recordings would go to waste." - Page 180.
These problems plagued US intelligence efforts in the first year of the Korean War, a war which the US fought under far more favorable conditions and against far weaker opponents then the Soviet Union of the late-40s.
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