The general idea was that the usa does get a constitution, but it is significantly neutered compared to the constitution of OTL. The usa would disintegrate around the turn of the century
Ok, assuming the Jay Treaty is never signed - which might explain why Britain still occupies the Old Northwest - you still need to take into account:
A) the northern border of Maine was disputed for much of the first half of the 19th century
As to how the border is resolved ITTL - well, on the one hand, New England is nowhere nearly as powerful as the US was at the time, but on the other, the relationship between Britain and New England would be better.
I'm still leaning onto the side of "the border is resolved more in Britain's favour than in New England's", because of bullyboy tactics.
B) the matter of the Erie Triangle was resolved by the Federal Government buying the land from New York, and then selling it to Pennsylvania. Without a strong Federal Government to buy all that western land, IMO, New York is holding onto that land. As a result, the Continental Congress - or at least Pennsylvania, at first - would want to expand westwards to gain access to Lake Erie.
C) The border between Pennsylvania and Virginia might not follow the exact OTL line ITTL. Specifically, the Northern Panhandle of OTL West Virginia may or may not be part of Pennsylvania ITTL, depending on where Virginia and the Continental Congress agree to set their border.
EDIT: I'm ok with Vermont staying independent for a while, but, eventually, it's going to have to decide whether it's a good idea to join New England, or even to become a British protectorate, to defend against potential New Yorker designs.
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