Gabriel only have daughters...
Micaela will marry her cousin Juan Alfonso? Maybe her uncle Juan Carlos?
Will Spain suffer another civil war?
Will the Avis-Trastamara loose the throne of Spain?
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Una diferente ‘Plus Ultra’ - the Avís-Trastámara Kings of All Spain and the Indies (Updated 11/7)
- Thread starter Torbald
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Micaela will marry her cousin Juan Alfonso? Maybe her uncle Juan Carlos?
Will Spain suffer another civil war?
Will the Avis-Trastamara loose the throne of Spain?
...
IIRC, the Avis-Trastámaras Iberian Monarchy, heirs to the throne, aren't limited by any kind of 'Salic Law', so, I would suppose that Micaela I (?), will reign with whatever king consort that either would be chosen for her or that she would chose to marry...
Is truth that some laws have been unified, but I don't remember any reference towards the hereditary laws.
In Castille there was male preference as in Navarre, but in Aragon there was salic law. IDK what happened in Portugal.
Indeed, but there wasn't anything similar or so ingrained both in the tradition and in the Kingdom succession laws as the Franks/French ones, with the Salic Law. Also,at least in Castile, the Royal succession, (when it was done more or less pacificaly), there was a sort of tradition of regulating/establishing it through the Royals wills. Such, as King Juan II that in his will (later ignored) established that in case of no legitimate male heir that his daughter Isabel (OTL Isabel I of Spain), and her legitimate heirs should inherit the Castilian Throne: (Old Castilian)
Micaela will most likely rule in her own right as the will of Aragon doesn't matter as much (and frankly they'd be stupid to want out) or they could simply make her husband her Co ruler in Aragon. I will say however that she'll probably marry a cousin of the Aviz-Trastamara line however so a foreigner won't he king.
Hopefully a more distant cousin (at least second), but I think that her marrying a first cousin is unfortunately likely. An uncle-niece marriage is even a possibility.
That's a better choice genetically speaking (it's been suggested in fact that third and fourth cousins are ideal to breed with), but it's not necessarily the choice the Avis-Trastamara dynasty would make.
Should Gabriel and Elizabeth have no more children/sons then the most likely marriage for Micaela would be her half-uncle Juan Carlos in order to unify Iberia.
Wonder if Spain intervened in Cambodia like it did that one time.
Aragorn DO NOT applied fully Salic-law, theirs was more a female exclusion (but in OTL both Isabella and Joanna of Aragon were recognized as Princess of Girona and so heiresses of Aragon) but the succession of males from female lines was easily accepted (Ferdinand I of Aragon’s claim to the Aragonese’s crown was from his mother, without counting Miguel and Charles, both female line grandsons of Ferdinand II)
The reason Barcelona was part of Aragon was that the count of Barcelona, Ramon Berenguer IV, married the heiress, and later queen, of Aragon, Petronila I, who inherited the throne from her father.
True, but at some point after that Aragorn started to exclude females (but not fully female lines) from the succession
Immediately after, actually, because it was the succession custom in the County of Barcelona (whose house was now the kings of Aragon). But when it was necessary to challenge the succession it went back to the original Aragonese laws, like with Ferdinand I, that you mentioned. In the Compromise of Caspe which granted him the throne Petronila was used as precedent to legitimize his claim of descent via female line (he was the late King Martin's nephew from his sister Eleaonor).
It's worth mentioning that back them neither Aragon nor Barcelona had any actual codified succession laws, it was all custom and tradition.
This is one of the most important butterflies in the whole timeline. Barcelona was severly lacking in liquidity and banking infrastructure to become a major financial center, equivalent of Venice, Genoa, Lyon and Florence. The spanish atlantic economy is served by the Casa de Prestación in Seville and now the spanish mediterranean economy gets its own financial center. Alongside the tectonic event of butterflying the north african commerce raiding, it means that spanish mediterranean trade will be explosive in its growth.
That leaves out Genoa. During the 16th century, Genoa was transformed in the spanish monarchy's banker. The sums invested in spanish debt in OTL were enormous: Between 1520 and 1556 the Genoese invested 11,3 million ducats in loans to the Spanish Crown. That sum rose to 14 million for the 1558-1574 period. Well, this development won't take place in TTL. The Genoese have capital, have expertise, have good financial institutions. What will they do?
I think the most plausible answer is that they have invested in their industry and commerce and secondarily invested in the financial market of Barcelona and the spanish realm. What industry though? We know that in OTL 16th century raw silk constituted up to 50% of the value of imports and wool another 10-20%, Most of the raw silk was imported from spanish southern Italy and Sicily. Now the supply routes are safe from raiders. When it comes to shipping, the OTL capacity had increased from 12,000 tons in 1498 to 29,000 in 1558. By the end of the century it fell back to 10-12,000 tons. It makes sense to me, that in TTL the Genoese will have to invest in a combination of industry and shipping.
After the Great Turkish War, they also may try to recover Chios via a treaty with the defeated Ottomans. Chios would resume its OTL role of being an entrepot for trade from Smyrna and Constantinople. In that case, genoese woolen textiles will be exported to the Ottoman Empire, while the silks are better suited for the french and german market.
What about Venice though?
I had mentioned before of the butterflies impacting Venice. In OTL 1560s Venice moved more spices than the beginning of the 16th century. There were huge riches to be found there. With a spanish Aden, that major source of wealth has been lost. In OTL venetian economy there was a gradual focus towards manufacturing. My thesis has been that this shift has taken place earlier. However, I did not properly fathom the implications of it. According to the "Companion to Venetian History, 1400-1797", the woolen textiles industry took off, but was hampered by supply problems: the route to Merino wool was subjected to Barbary Corsair raiding. Now there is a secure supply of wool. Malaga and Alicante can resume their early 16th century role as wool-exporting ports. The venetian workshops produced both high quality and medium quality textiles so that they could satisfy the whole market. Woolen textiles was the most important import of the whole Mediterranean basin, Ottoman Empire included.
A secondary but profitable venetian industry was leather. However, the Ottomans seized Hungary, the most important source of cattle for the whole region. In TTL herds of hungarian grey cattle will continue arriving at Veneto. Moreover, Venice directly or indirectly controls western Greece (both Epirus and the region near Missolonghi), a great source of valonea acorns for tanning. It doesn't hurt that Epirus, Acarnania and Aetolia are pastoral lands, with hides being major export items. https://www.researchgate.net/profil...p-macrolepis-in-Greece-Pantera-et-al-2008.png
The lowlands around Missolonghi is also a great cotton region. If the Venetians maintain control of it and recapture their old plantations in Cyprus they will have a (not extensive) steady supply of cotton.
The Levantine Trade can be summed up in its most important aspect: Europeans exporting woolen textiles and importing silk. In TTL Venice, Genoa and Spain (since the Crown has long established a wool industry) can go toe-to-toe with Dutch and English merchants. It will be very tough for the Northerners to dominate the spanish and italian markets, while even the Levant (read Ottoman) market will be considerably more balanced - if anything the Venetians hold a competitive advantage due to geography.
That means more trade volume for Spain, Venice and Genoa and less for Holland and England. Compared to OTL, Dutch and English will receive less capital from the Mediterranean. In the Age of Sail, their Mediterranean Trade would be able to sustain much fewer ships and crews. And the Mediterranean Trade is much more valuable than e.g. the Baltic one. The gains - at least relatively to OTL- will go to Spain and also to Venice and Genoa- powers that are not threatening to spanish interests.
Even if there were no butterflies at all at the Americas and the East Indies -and there are many and huge, just this development alone will change the balance of naval power during the 17th century by a significant degree.
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Really makes me wonder how much more seriously the Spanish monarchs will take finance, trade, and industry. Hopefully they don't make the dumb decision to outsource all of that like what happened in OTL which screwed them up big time.
Well, IOTL it was due, to put it mildly, to the rather critical situation, of the Spanish Crown finances, that should do it, as the only way top paid their debts with their main loaners. Which in turn caused by both the constant drain of resources that in turn was further aggravated by the Crown political and tax structures. Things that,even if the ongoing Moroccan conquest and the successful defence of Sicily and Italy along with the war against the Ottoman empire, would have doubtless put quite the strain in the Avis-Trastámara Iberia finances, still wouldn't seem as that ITTL, given the different circumstances and specially the reforms that have started to address some of the first mentioned, OTL problems, they would be quite the same...
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Like I knew that the Spanish shipped a lot of wealth into Burgundy in OTL instead of reinvesting it into themselves, as well as constantly funding religious wars in Germany. Like if this scenario was in any other timeline, people would call it ASB because the idea of an empire blowing its lead like that would be outrageous to them.