Very interesting. France is having to fight alone, while A-H does not get completely gutted in the opening months of the conflict, losing most of its prewar army. I am rather happy that A-H will manage to both survive the war, and reform itself to a sufficient degree, that it manages to survive as a viable state into the future.
So, secondary PoD is that Conrad does recognize that defense against Russia c9mes first, punishing Serbia second. So, presumably Army Groups A and B are sent to Galicia, while smaller Army Group Balkan goes to Serbia, likely holding their ground and doing garrison duties in Bosnia. It likely means that they do not feel there is enough forces to invade Serbia right away, and are going to deal with Russia first, while leaving Serbia for later, or at least doing a slower, steadier invasion of Serbia then IOTL. While losses in K.u.K Armee are likely still going to be high, they have to confront several Russian armies after all, losses in artillery, equipment and locomotives (1,500+ locos and over 10,000 wagons) are surely going to be much lower. One can not properly describe just how crippling the first battles of war were for the Austria-Hungary, and they had to spend the rest of the war heavily dependant upon Germany and desperately trying to make good their losses, especially in regards to artillery. With less losses, much less panicky conscription, A-H industry will be more capable of both making good their losses, while at the same time providing more arms and equipment.
Their prewar plans were to have some 160+ artillery pieces in service by 1917 or so, in each Army Corps, and all of these guns were to be modern, heavy artillery pieces. Even IOTL, they have managed to do a lot, with at least some divisions having entire artillery battery at their disposal, some 94 guns of varying calibers, everything from mountain guns, to 150mm howitzers. Not to mention that their siege guns were amongst the best in the world, were completely motorized, and their most modern and heavier field guns and howitzers were supposed to be completely motorized, not using horses at all. Their infantry weapons were more then adequate for the task, with M.95 rifle and M.07/12 MG easily comparable to the weapons used by other powers of the time. Not to mention, that they were capable of learning and adapting, no matter how crippled they were, or what the common perception of Austri-Hungary is. At the very beginning of the war Inf.Rgt was supposed to have just 8 MGs, split among its 4 Battalions, and that was it. By 1918, the number of MGs rose to 72 per regiment, 24 per battalion, in addition to other arms and equipment such as trench mortars, inf.guns (2x37mm), search lights and field telephones. Each battalion had a MG company with 8MGs, and 16MGs in a "light" MG, split into 4 LMG sections of 4 guns.
Less losses, more info and practical experience floating around, less pressure upon industry... it all adds up, and while it is somewhat unlikely that we will see Austro-Hungarian tanks, armored cars are a possibility.
Great work so far, looking forward to more.