Ulster Fought and the Kaiser Won

Democracy could never work after the two sides have gone to war, especially considering Catholics were nearly if not half the total population of Ulster at this time.
Only around 33% of the population of the Six Counties in 1914. The demographic shift occurred over the 20th Century and was in part due to the Catholic population adopting birth control a generation and a half after the Protestants. They were demographically due to reach parity around 2038 according to studies conducted in the late 1960s and early 1970s (which assumed correctly that they would eventually adopt birth control) but this has been slightly accelerated by Portuguese, Lithuanian and Polish immigration (which couldn't have reliably been foreseen) and is now likely to arrive around 2026.
 
Only around 33% of the population of the Six Counties in 1914. The demographic shift occurred over the 20th Century and was in part due to the Catholic population adopting birth control a generation and a half after the Protestants. They were demographically due to reach parity around 2038 according to studies conducted in the late 1960s and early 1970s (which assumed correctly that they would eventually adopt birth control) but this has been slightly accelerated by Portuguese, Lithuanian and Polish immigration (which couldn't have reliably been foreseen) and is now likely to arrive around 2026.
This is off-topic from an excellent TL, but I point it out regardless: why do they count in the immigrants, since it would seem unlikely for them to share the same political passions for the religious divide as people with longer history in the region and the conflict itself?
 
This is off-topic from an excellent TL, but I point it out regardless: why do they count in the immigrants, since it would seem unlikely for them to share the same political passions for the religious divide as people with longer history in the region and the conflict itself?
The immigrants mainly stay out of local politics being first generation, but the census form asks whether our perceived religion is Roman Catholic, Protestant or Other. It doesn't qualify that in a way to highlight recent immigrants. We do know however from the immigration figures that around 3% of the population are of Polish, Lithuanian or Portuguese background. When (indigenous) Catholics would otherwise be around 47% of the overall population, that 3% is a very significant figure!
 
The immigrants mainly stay out of local politics being first generation, but the census form asks whether our perceived religion is Roman Catholic, Protestant or Other. It doesn't qualify that in a way to highlight recent immigrants. We do know however from the immigration figures that around 3% of the population are of Polish, Lithuanian or Portuguese background. When (indigenous) Catholics would otherwise be around 47% of the overall population, that 3% is a very significant figure!
You are right but when you take into account Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan, the population disparity gets smaller, even though these are lightly populated counties.
 
Absolutely, but the Ulster Unionists wanted a long term Partition with a solid inbuilt Unionist majority not a bare majority and were quite ruthless about discarding Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan even in their plans for 1912. Even during the boundary Commission, they only wanted one change to NI as we know it, they wanted to swap South Armagh for Lifford district of Donegal. Michael Collins however took a hard headed business decision that the tax revenues of (at that time) Protestant and Unionist Lifford were of greater value to the nascent Irish State than those of Catholic and Nationalist South Armagh.
 
Very interesting. France is having to fight alone, while A-H does not get completely gutted in the opening months of the conflict, losing most of its prewar army. I am rather happy that A-H will manage to both survive the war, and reform itself to a sufficient degree, that it manages to survive as a viable state into the future.

So, secondary PoD is that Conrad does recognize that defense against Russia c9mes first, punishing Serbia second. So, presumably Army Groups A and B are sent to Galicia, while smaller Army Group Balkan goes to Serbia, likely holding their ground and doing garrison duties in Bosnia. It likely means that they do not feel there is enough forces to invade Serbia right away, and are going to deal with Russia first, while leaving Serbia for later, or at least doing a slower, steadier invasion of Serbia then IOTL. While losses in K.u.K Armee are likely still going to be high, they have to confront several Russian armies after all, losses in artillery, equipment and locomotives (1,500+ locos and over 10,000 wagons) are surely going to be much lower. One can not properly describe just how crippling the first battles of war were for the Austria-Hungary, and they had to spend the rest of the war heavily dependant upon Germany and desperately trying to make good their losses, especially in regards to artillery. With less losses, much less panicky conscription, A-H industry will be more capable of both making good their losses, while at the same time providing more arms and equipment.

Their prewar plans were to have some 160+ artillery pieces in service by 1917 or so, in each Army Corps, and all of these guns were to be modern, heavy artillery pieces. Even IOTL, they have managed to do a lot, with at least some divisions having entire artillery battery at their disposal, some 94 guns of varying calibers, everything from mountain guns, to 150mm howitzers. Not to mention that their siege guns were amongst the best in the world, were completely motorized, and their most modern and heavier field guns and howitzers were supposed to be completely motorized, not using horses at all. Their infantry weapons were more then adequate for the task, with M.95 rifle and M.07/12 MG easily comparable to the weapons used by other powers of the time. Not to mention, that they were capable of learning and adapting, no matter how crippled they were, or what the common perception of Austri-Hungary is. At the very beginning of the war Inf.Rgt was supposed to have just 8 MGs, split among its 4 Battalions, and that was it. By 1918, the number of MGs rose to 72 per regiment, 24 per battalion, in addition to other arms and equipment such as trench mortars, inf.guns (2x37mm), search lights and field telephones. Each battalion had a MG company with 8MGs, and 16MGs in a "light" MG, split into 4 LMG sections of 4 guns.

Less losses, more info and practical experience floating around, less pressure upon industry... it all adds up, and while it is somewhat unlikely that we will see Austro-Hungarian tanks, armored cars are a possibility.

Great work so far, looking forward to more.
 
So, secondary PoD is that Conrad does recognize that defense against Russia c9mes first, punishing Serbia second.
My one concern here is that a scenario where the primary point of departure is Britain staying out of the war strikes me as making it MORE likely Conrad feels comfortable going hard after the Serbs.
 
My one concern here is that a scenario where the primary point of departure is Britain staying out of the war strikes me as making it MORE likely Conrad feels comfortable going hard after the Serbs.
I am unsure of that happening. I mean, British are not going to send an army to fight on behalf of Serbia, Russia will, 4 Armies. Only ones in A-H military that pay extra attention to what British are doing is the Navy, and A-H is going to do what they planned to do prewar, that being sending majority of their forces East, while keeping minimal forces elsewhere, and I really do not see how Britain staying out of the war changes that.
 
I am unsure of that happening. I mean, British are not going to send an army to fight on behalf of Serbia, Russia will, 4 Armies. Only ones in A-H military that pay extra attention to what British are doing is the Navy, and A-H is going to do what they planned to do prewar, that being sending majority of their forces East, while keeping minimal forces elsewhere, and I really do not see how Britain staying out of the war changes that.
I think my point is that the Entente is now deprived a hugely important ally - the one with the biggest economy, to say nothing of whatever it will contribute in terms of troops to the Western Front out of the gate. This reduces the pressure on both Berlin and Vienna.

Otherwise, I would have to ask why the converse is true: that British belligerency makes it more likely that Conrad goes all in immediately against the Serbs.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Another question is the Polish border strip, would the Germans annex it?
Might depend on the duration of the conflict.

IOTL polish territory only started to become a theme of discussion in somewhat higher up and therefore nearer on decision-making circles late 1915 to beginning 1916. It was NO theme of the famous/infamous "september-program" (just in case someone might cite and torture this document once again).
 
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