yboxman
Banned
OK, the subject of a third Anglo American war pops up occasionally on the forum... and generally devolves into a flame war. Still, let's give it another go, shall we?
Let's suppose, for whatever reason, that Anglo-French operations in the Pacific are more energetic and succesful- perhaps they are able to enlist Tokugawa Japan to join the War against Russia and get a near infinite, if low grade, source of infantry to throw at the scant Russian garrisons in the North pacific (Which would make a fascinating POD for Japan all on it'sown- but let's stay focused on the Anglo-American balance of forces).
Nicholas realized he can't hope to hold on to Alaska and convinces President Pierce to take it off his hand (and allow the transport of Russian garrisons and ships to Europe, etc) for a bargain price. Only trouble is, the Anglo-French-Japanese forces have already begun landings in Alaska before the deal is signed- and the UK is none to inclined to let Cousin Jonathan outflank Vancouver any which way.
A few half-hearted attempts of mediation by Napoleon III end badly, Pierce gets up on his high horse and won't back down and Palmerton sees a chance to cut the U.S down to size. war breaks out. What next?
1. Is Britian likely to be able to entice Mexico and/or Spain into the war with subsidies? Who would be their best bet to do it with- Santy Annie or someone else?
2. As i recall the U.S army at the time was only 16,000 regulars. How effective were the state millitas at the time? How long would it take the U.S to expand into something capable of defending a Mexican or Anglo-Canadian invasion and going on the offensive- and what would Britain be likely to do on land until it did? How many troops would be tied down defending the coasts from raids?
3. Would Britain be likely to try to carry on trade favoring it with the southern states (As it did with Napoleon I'sts sattelites) even while imposing a blockade cutting other European powers out? Would Southern State governments play along?
4. How vulnerable is the U.S Pacific Coast and what kind of power projection does Britian have there? enough to enable conquest of Oregon and California?
5. Come 1856 is war, assuming the issue is not decided by then, likely to favor a renomination of pierce as Democratic candidate if the U.S is doing tolerably well in the war? if it is losing by points (Ongoing blocakde, stalemated fighting on land) or is sufferring badly (British occupation of pacific ports, stalled fighting elsewhere?)
6. Do the Know nothings still coalensce into a party or does the war, and the diminutation in immigration the blocakde entails, render the issues they are running on mute?
7. Is a split between Northern and Southern Democrats likely if the war is still raging in 1856?
8. Are the Republicans and Fremont (assuming he does not take up a commission or is not given one by a democratic administration)likely to win the Midwestern swing states, and the electoral votes in 1856 if the war is still raging on?
9. How radical of a abolitionist is Fremont likely to be as a president in 1856, and how would he be perceived by the South? Enough to cause some of the Southern States to bolt in the middle of a war?
10. How would the war against Russia go if Britain pulled out it's troops to Canada, or at least stopped reinforcing them? WOuld France be likely to abandon the siege on Sevastopol, and move to a strategy focused on assisting the Ottomans on the Armenian front?
11. If U.S involvement means a longer war what happens when the Indian mutiny breaks out, more or less on schedule?
12. Is Austria likely to continue fence-sitting even if the war is extended?
Let's suppose, for whatever reason, that Anglo-French operations in the Pacific are more energetic and succesful- perhaps they are able to enlist Tokugawa Japan to join the War against Russia and get a near infinite, if low grade, source of infantry to throw at the scant Russian garrisons in the North pacific (Which would make a fascinating POD for Japan all on it'sown- but let's stay focused on the Anglo-American balance of forces).
Nicholas realized he can't hope to hold on to Alaska and convinces President Pierce to take it off his hand (and allow the transport of Russian garrisons and ships to Europe, etc) for a bargain price. Only trouble is, the Anglo-French-Japanese forces have already begun landings in Alaska before the deal is signed- and the UK is none to inclined to let Cousin Jonathan outflank Vancouver any which way.
A few half-hearted attempts of mediation by Napoleon III end badly, Pierce gets up on his high horse and won't back down and Palmerton sees a chance to cut the U.S down to size. war breaks out. What next?
1. Is Britian likely to be able to entice Mexico and/or Spain into the war with subsidies? Who would be their best bet to do it with- Santy Annie or someone else?
2. As i recall the U.S army at the time was only 16,000 regulars. How effective were the state millitas at the time? How long would it take the U.S to expand into something capable of defending a Mexican or Anglo-Canadian invasion and going on the offensive- and what would Britain be likely to do on land until it did? How many troops would be tied down defending the coasts from raids?
3. Would Britain be likely to try to carry on trade favoring it with the southern states (As it did with Napoleon I'sts sattelites) even while imposing a blockade cutting other European powers out? Would Southern State governments play along?
4. How vulnerable is the U.S Pacific Coast and what kind of power projection does Britian have there? enough to enable conquest of Oregon and California?
5. Come 1856 is war, assuming the issue is not decided by then, likely to favor a renomination of pierce as Democratic candidate if the U.S is doing tolerably well in the war? if it is losing by points (Ongoing blocakde, stalemated fighting on land) or is sufferring badly (British occupation of pacific ports, stalled fighting elsewhere?)
6. Do the Know nothings still coalensce into a party or does the war, and the diminutation in immigration the blocakde entails, render the issues they are running on mute?
7. Is a split between Northern and Southern Democrats likely if the war is still raging in 1856?
8. Are the Republicans and Fremont (assuming he does not take up a commission or is not given one by a democratic administration)likely to win the Midwestern swing states, and the electoral votes in 1856 if the war is still raging on?
9. How radical of a abolitionist is Fremont likely to be as a president in 1856, and how would he be perceived by the South? Enough to cause some of the Southern States to bolt in the middle of a war?
10. How would the war against Russia go if Britain pulled out it's troops to Canada, or at least stopped reinforcing them? WOuld France be likely to abandon the siege on Sevastopol, and move to a strategy focused on assisting the Ottomans on the Armenian front?
11. If U.S involvement means a longer war what happens when the Indian mutiny breaks out, more or less on schedule?
12. Is Austria likely to continue fence-sitting even if the war is extended?