To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory
- Thread starter TheReformer
- Start date
As said, is the entire premise that's wrong; the government will have continued the war as it was the lesser evil (and no, sorry nobody will have been so deluded to even try to patch things with Berlin at the moment) and Diaz (unlike Cadorna) even if stating his reserve will have obeyed, Germany or not Germany because they need to bring home some result and while unrest will happen not even the maximalist will go full revolutionary till there is the looming menace of the A-H empire at north.
A-H is engulfed in revolution? Ok all the bets are off but till there is the serious risk of the former allies finish the job, things will be relatively 'calm' (enphasis on relively).
Edit: plus Umberto (the son of VIttorio Emanuele III) can't be King as he had not reached the age, if the King leave the throne, his cousin the Duke of Aosta will become regent and first the current King will prefer die and second all the political parties except the nationalist/fascist really dislike the Duke even if it was a war hero due to his not very hidden thought of enstablish a dictatorship
Regarding Germany willingness to help an ally, well honestly while she is winning had suffered 5 years of war, lost an incredible number of men and even her internal political situation is not stable, everyone has limit. While she will prop up the Hapsburg Empire i doubt that will throw away her troops because Wien don't want to give up Trentino and some border zone, even because it was not really happy that she had not done it in 1915 avoiding the italian front in his totality.
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Right lets clarify some things for you then.
The Italian front on the Caporetto offensive for example required just one German army to complete, alongside of course several Austrian and Hungarian - which are still present, albeit much weaker than usual. Germany immediately deployed one army here to stem the tide, they would add more if needed. You might think this is unlikely because Germany would be tired, but the German military in the summer of 1918 was nowhere near exhausted to the point where they had no offensive capacity - especially as they have concluded both other continental fronts besides the occupied zones.
Italy's politicians are not stupid, after reaching just past their existing borders they would agree to discuss conditional talks on the basis of a status quo peace - as they do here. To refuse to do so would be not just completely strategically inept, but would also invite eventual defeat and almost certainly worsen the domestic situation in Italy which by summer 1918 was growing increasingly unstable - amplified here by the capitulation of all of Italy's continental partners.
I appreciate your zeal in hopes that your native country would not have fallen directly into civil war in 1918, but you must appreciate that 1) Italy could not alone defeat Germany and Austria. 2) Germany would have aided Austria, they have a strategic imperative to do so, and even if they only only hold off the Italians, Italy could not break into Lower Austria. 3) Italy was in no way stable by 1918, even with clear military gains and an overall victory in the war Italy suffered two years of socialist upheaval among the peasantry, and became the first revolutionary fascist dictatorship in the world.
If you are looking for a timeline where Italy wins the war alone, this is not the one for you. I'm here to create a plausible series of events, what you are asserting is not plausible. Nonetheless I appreciate your input, and as I said before, I did read over your previous suggestions and made appropriate edits to add to the plausibility further. In this you helped me achieve my goal of making the timeline as plausible as I can, and I appreciate that - but I will interpret events how I see fit from my knowledge and with consultation from others familiar with the era.
They did continue the war, they fought up to their borders where their forces were (realistically) halted because their offensive had already covered almost the entirity of Veneto province. That's a huge advance, you cannot logistically sustain an army marching that distance, at 70km it was further than the Germans even achieved ittl in their advance on Amiens. What I think you may overestimate is that if Italy continued the war past this period, Germany would counter attack.
The Italian front on the Caporetto offensive for example required just one German army to complete, alongside of course several Austrian and Hungarian - which are still present, albeit much weaker than usual. Germany immediately deployed one army here to stem the tide, they would add more if needed. You might think this is unlikely because Germany would be tired, but the German military in the summer of 1918 was nowhere near exhausted to the point where they had no offensive capacity - especially as they have concluded both other continental fronts besides the occupied zones.
Italy's politicians are not stupid, after reaching just past their existing borders they would agree to discuss conditional talks on the basis of a status quo peace - as they do here. To refuse to do so would be not just completely strategically inept, but would also invite eventual defeat and almost certainly worsen the domestic situation in Italy which by summer 1918 was growing increasingly unstable - amplified here by the capitulation of all of Italy's continental partners.
They are not trying to become an ally of Berlin. If you have to negotiate with a big, scary neighbour - do you think it is wise to send the guy who they've been fighting for years or the guy who allied them before? Giolliti is brought back because A) He's a popular, experienced and firm social reformer and B) He's the guy Germany is comfortable dealing with.
You are vastly over stating the revolutionary state of Germany and Austria Hungary (both of whom have essentially just won a land victory in the largest war ever seen) in the summer of 1918. Germany is nowhere near collapse, nor is Austria.
It isn't. That is not written anywhere, was in OTL in September 1918? No.
I am, in fact, aware he would not be able to be King. As one might expect on this forum, I am also aware of regencies. Umberto was 14 by now, his uncle as you say could have been regent, a role he would have fitted to well given his war record. I did not write that in because it was rejected outright, why waste the words on unnecessary detail?
Italy does not have the offensive capacity to take Trentino. They have a small toe hold, given their isolated status and economic difficulties at this point in the conflict, they would not be able to press an advance further within the next six months without the entire Austrian Army collapsing, or Germany refusing to aid them - both of which are implausible.
I appreciate your zeal in hopes that your native country would not have fallen directly into civil war in 1918, but you must appreciate that 1) Italy could not alone defeat Germany and Austria. 2) Germany would have aided Austria, they have a strategic imperative to do so, and even if they only only hold off the Italians, Italy could not break into Lower Austria. 3) Italy was in no way stable by 1918, even with clear military gains and an overall victory in the war Italy suffered two years of socialist upheaval among the peasantry, and became the first revolutionary fascist dictatorship in the world.
If you are looking for a timeline where Italy wins the war alone, this is not the one for you. I'm here to create a plausible series of events, what you are asserting is not plausible. Nonetheless I appreciate your input, and as I said before, I did read over your previous suggestions and made appropriate edits to add to the plausibility further. In this you helped me achieve my goal of making the timeline as plausible as I can, and I appreciate that - but I will interpret events how I see fit from my knowledge and with consultation from others familiar with the era.
I have a feeling we're gonna be seeing a certain Austrian corporal with a Charlie Chaplin mustache pretty soon.
He is a nobody at this timeline point and unless dunno he save the Kaiser or kronz prinze life he would remain that way
kham_coc
Banned
Well to be fair he is a decorated war veteran with a lot of charisma - its entirely plausible he becomes important either way.
Though obviously without all the radicalism and the power vacuum, it would be wildly different. Win or lose tough the establishment in the reich was going to change in nature after the war.
Rattenfänger von Memphis
Donor
Ombra said:
TheReformer, this is exactly why I am enjoying your timeline. Not only have you been plausible here but objective as well.TheReformer said:
I’m sure, like all of us, you have biases, favorites, likes and dislikes of the various nations and historical personalities involved in TTVGTS but I would be hard-pressed to guess what they are in your case. And that is one of the highest compliments that I can give any timeline creator.
I mean, how many Russians had access to a radio in 1917? My main concern would be all the angry veterans coming back from the front. Word would be spread by mouth, newspapers, and, for city folk, by their own powers of observation of the chaos unfolding around them.
What a lovely thing to wake up to. Made my morning.
Gold star for you.
Realistically the choice of the italian goverment are 2:
- sign your peace and expect the revolution that they know it follow
- continue the war if the British are willing so to get something out of it and having a change to hold the storm.
The idea of a German counterattack will not be considered that important by the politicians, because even a white peace is basically a death sentence, or at least it was what they enormously feared, so knowing the politicians at the time, it's doubtfoul that will not attempt that, hell they refused a white peace after Caporetto and we were in a much worse situation. As you said correctly it will be something very very hard to pull off, but they will try it as they thing is vital to the continued existence of the liberal system.
Sure the German army is not spent like the summer of 1918 but it's hardly a fresh force and it's painfully clear that they will basically do all the work as the K.u.K not only is not capable of offensive for a lot of time but it will also lost a lot of men (prisoners) and equipment and this come the political consideration, as they will basically continue the war, spend money and men and keep Italy as a continental British ally in the war for A-H territorial integrity and while as you said, keeping the whole empire is very usefull (for now), waste resource and continue a war that frankly as tired everyone while it's more cost effective make the Austrian give up some little piece and end there even because i doubt that in Berlin there will be a lot of people happy to always go to save their ally bacon.
Not considering that if the UK is still on the war, they can also sent reinforcement towards Italy as the front is still open and that's another consideration for Germany to end things quickly (in poor words, Germany, as A-H before her during the Sistus affair, can be relatively generous with things that don't belong to her).
Sure at Caporetto they needed one army, unfortunely the italian army that they face is a totally different beast in term of training and equipment as OTL showed so if they expect such easy ride the Germans are up for a nasty surprise.
Hell it even probable that Berlin offer Tunisia to the Italians in exchange for the immediate ceasefire and make the rest of the entente leave the nation evicting the british from the continent
He will have not accepted the job exactely for this reason, he was seen as a very pro German politicians and him negotiating anything will have immediately made lose any legitimancy to the treaty and his goverment, hell i already hear the screaming of everyone that Giolitti had sold the country to his Germans friend even refusing to fight while we were winning. After the signing? Yes he will get the job, before? Nope as anyone that sing that document will have his political career ended; if the A-H offensive was succesfull? Yes due to the general desperation but in this scenario, Giolitti will wait on the sidelineIt isn't. That is not written anywhere, was in OTL in September 1918? No.
Yes but i said that if A-H is engulfed in revolution, well yes the maximalist will take the occasion to think seriously to revolution, if that not happen even them will stay put because everyone (them included) fear a possible A-H invasion while a civil war/uprising ravage Italy but if that not happen, sure there will be unrest but all the major political movement will play ball (at least in pubblic) because of the enemy up north.
This is not a war, this has been the greatest massacre know to men till that moment (and there is also the ravaging by the spanish flu) and winning or losing in a late 1918 WWI victory is an extreme relative term. Sure NOW they are nowhere near collapse, as said earlier, you must work hard to create a collapse during wartime...the problems, all the problems arise once the bullet end, as you have described in Italy and France, even in Germany and A-H once the enthusiasm for the victory will be over, it will come the realization of the price payed and all the economic and social problems that existed pre war will be added to the realization of what has been spent to achieve such victory united to the deligimization of the current rulership and the need to prop up all the new state carved up by B-L (the German plan was to make them economic and political colony of the Reich, doubt that the locals will be happy, not considering what they planned to do with the Polish). THAT was exactely what the Hapsburg rulership thought in case the war go beyond 1917 and even in case of victory, not considering that by this stage everyone know that's Berlin the one that really call the shot in Wien
OTL even the immediate postwar was not a bed of rose for the winners and i doubt that will be for the CP, hell the entire interwar period was a moment of political and social unrest for the everyone winner included, sometime even at crippling level.
It's the fact that VEIII will have never ever let his cousin near the throne as he hated him that much at a personal level and even the rest of the political enstablisment was very very very wary of him
Yes Italy was not stable but OTL Italy doesn't have his hereditary enemy still alive and with everyone in fear that she want to finish the job, for this reason i keep insisting that unless something made clear that A-H is totally absolutely uncapable of taking advantage of such massive unrest like OTL Biennio Rosso, all the political group in Italy will stay 'relatively' put because everyone fear the Austrian.
Italy is still not isolated, due to the fact that the British (and the americans?) are still on the fight, if she was truly isolated yes even our political class will be forced to concede that the game is over, but unless the British say they are out in Europe, anyone in Rome will find the option to continue to fight the lesser evil as they fear too much the possible political repercussion.
Sure Italy can't break immediately in Trentino but defending will not be economic for Germany (sorry but the K.u.K between the previous battle and the previous problem with supply will not be in any condition to contribuite due to their lack of...everything) and keep Italy in the war mean giving to the British a continental ally, for this reason i keep saying that for the German leadership is a lot more economic simply give to the Italians some crumble even because it's another that need to give than risk continue to fight.
In the end it's your TL and you can do it what you want, i simply point out what and why things will not work the way at least on the part that i know. It's not because i want to see Italy win, this is fiction, things will not change for me either case. It's simple that the entire strategic situation that you have created will have not give to the italian goverment any incentive to end the war and accept a white peace so easily...unless the British stop supporting them,
Mate, I think you'd best let it rest. If you really can't fathom why things are the way they are, then your understanding of the situation is flawed. Most of what your objections are have been accounted for, and will be coming up. Yes they will cause issues, because they always were going to.
Ultimately your objection is predicated on the Germans being unwilling to help Austria and Austria being on the brink of collapse. Disabuse yourself of that notion. Austria may as well serve as an extension of German hegemony in 1918, and after having achieved victory in France, the Germans have freed up millions of men to secure the continent. Italy has zero reason to expect they would be unable or unwilling to help Austria, and they have no reason to believe Austria is currently on the brink of collapse (because it isn't).
The volatile domestic situation is important, but pursuing a continuation war would correctly be seen as suicidal in that scenario.
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I find it perplexing that any Government would willingly risk losing everything when they have no continental allies left by continuing a war they are destined to lose. I cannot fathom why the Government would reject a status quo peace where they can at least blame their allies for defeat, rather than a continued war they would be near enough assured to lose. I appreciate reality is not always realistic, but that seems extremely suicidal.
Because they had continental allies.
Germany's ruling military clique are the same people who happily wanted to annex most of northern France, they are in this war to completely redraw Europe for their benefit. They'll gladly expend three or four armies at most to destroy what is left of the Italian army to secure that.
I do appreciate that this could be an option, and I have no doubt Britain would send additional divisions - Britain had troops there already for example. The problem is that to establish an expeditionary force abroad you need to establish a large scale logistical operation that Italy currently could not support. The reason the Germans aimed for Amiens in Operation Michael for example was because the Anglo-French logistical structure for northern France was a literal nightmare that a British railway company were brought in to painstakingly establish, aided by significant daily shipments to Calais and Dunkirk.
Britain could commit, say, an army to Italy and I agree that would make a difference, but I'm not entirely sure that the political will to do so would exist in Britain. Most of these men have just been brought home from France, and are tired and disinterested in a war that is now over on all fronts bar those in France and the Middle East. Britain reinforced the middle east because they had territory to gain there, and I imagine they would deploy forces to Italy too, but I suspect it would not be the great swathes of forces one would need to prevent a German counter offensive, and I suspect for that reason alone Britain would only redeploy limited forces to Italy.
So I appreciate that it is an avenue Britain could go down, but on my read of the situation I suspect they would not do so.
I think the issue with how you are reading this is that you are slightly over-weighting the value which Germany places on Italy removing itself from the war. Britain fights on, that is true, and an Italy that refused to surrender would have a few months where they would present a minor strategic issue to Germany, but in reality within six months Germany would be capable of defeating Italy, and by then all the other peace treaties would be signed which would ease German economic difficulties.
it wouldn't be a perfect position for Germany, but they have no real incentive to give Italy anything. If there is no need to horse trade over land, why would they reward Italy's duplicity? Again, I agree this could be a path one could go down plausibly in a timeline, but I suspect it would not satiate Italian nationalists regardless and I suspect Germany would not follow it, and thus I'm choosing not to do so.
I disagree with this train of thought, Bulgaria's Prime Minister after the war was a man jailed by the Government. Russia selected a peasant socialist after their revolution, Germany chose the SPD to lead negotiations who had never governed before, Talleyrand represented France during the post-Napoleonic period. My point being - people in the opposition are regularly installed to discuss terms with enemies; hell - the German govt after WW1 ceded power to the SPD in a large part because they wanted them to shoulder the blame, and because they hoped a 'democratic' Germany would suffer less damaging terms. Giolitti is a three time Prime Minister by now, he's also a member of the same Governing Liberal Union party. Handing him the reigns is hardly revolutionary, nor would it be unreasonable.
Key word here is 'If'. If Germany lands on the beaches of Dover right now Britian might surrender - the point is that is not the case currently ittl.
I fail to see then, as you assert, why Germany would allow Austria Hungary to suffer territorial loss and almost certainly implode at the hands of an Italy incapable of attacking her any further with minor German aid? This paragraph only seems to undermine your previous points.
I will accept I am no expert on the Duke of Aosta and KVEIII's relationship - but regardless I feel this does not make the update implausible, another regent can always be found - and far more easily one would assume if the entire political establishment were opposed to Aosta as you suggest. Regardless, the plan was rejected - thus need not be investigated further.
It confuses me how you on the one hand claim that Italy would be urging the Government to fight on in order to defeat Austria - despite being certain to lose, while on the other hand claiming that the northern Italians would be so petrified of Austria that they'd never risk protesting while the fight continued with them. If I were an Italian peasant who has waited for years for the end of a war you absolutely didnt want and sent your sons to die in, I'd protest if the Government failed to deliver land reform promised years ago - especially if the Italian army had just driven back the Austrians. After all; why fear someone who your Government just drove out of the country?
Not really, they are blockading Germany and fighting in the middle east, they are far from wholly invested at this point precisely because they need not waste effort on a lost conflict. This isnt HOI4 AI tactics, Britain wouldnt/couldnt send it's entire army to the one active frontline left.
We'll agree to disagree then.
Because at one hand the liberal goverment was very fearfull of a revolution at the verge of paranoid even if in reality that possibility were not good (and the bolshevick revolution made them even more paranoid) on the other hand the socialist leadership was also fearing the extremely reactionary leadership of A-H (and Germany) so starting a revolution while they still exist and pose a very very very very credible menace that once the internal conflict start as the army and the nation will not be capable of sending them home if occupied in fighting each other. There is the clear and absolute knowledge that A-H is not capable of intervene in Italy if such revolution happen? Ok in such case, yes it will be given the ok, if that not happen while protest and riots will happen...there will be no coordinated attempt to overthrow the govement.
Giolitti will get the job of presidente del consiglio? Yes he will do, he will be the most probable choice, what will not get will be the role of negotiator in the peace treaty or put his sign of the treaty for the precise reason that i told before. He will get the job AFTER any signing, Orlando will be the sacrifical lamb because his career his already dead
In any case i give you my reason, take it as you want is your TL
Yes has been accounted and i thing i explained well while in reality not really and what i want to really really really explain is that even accepting a damn white peace is akin to suicide for the liberal goverment so for the nth times they don't have the damn reason to accept it unless the British stop supporting Italy and it's truly alone and the Austrian army by the end of OTL second battle of Piave was a spent force with severe issue in term of supply, ITTL she had been on retreat probably losing what left oh her heavy equipment in the theatre plus a consistent number of men taken prisoner so their capacity to help any German forces transferred to help them will be very limted.
No i don't thing is on the brink of the collapse NOW, but (as i explained alredy two times) once the war end even the current leadership thought in OTL that the Empire will have faced an existential crisis because due to the consequences of the war EVEN in case of victory because too much blood and treasure has been spent and for what? Becoming Germany pet?
And sure Germany is ready to help to keep Austria together for his own strategic interest, another is spent again men and treasure for Wien interest alone especially now that the German population see the light at the end of the tunnel of war...well that's a total different thing because my assumption is that everyone is extremely tired of the war and that millions of men that are needed to secure the continent? Well, they want go home as you can't keep them on uniform forever once the war is ended due to social and economic issue.
Listen, the author want to make any further italian offensive an abysmal failure with the nation falling in civil war after a treaty similar of BL? OK, honestly it will be much more probable than the liberals giving up in that scenario because for them it will be akin to a suicide.
It is! It’s alone on the continent, with shitty logistics, and it’s sole ally politically unable to send in more troops. Why is it unbelievable that the winning side wouldn’t allow someone on the losing side to take there land? Why would they reward the nation that betrayed them by giving them territory when everyone and their dogs know they will lose if they continue to fight.
This is the best deal Italy gets with the Entente losing. Not what you are implying with the militaristic societies suddenly deciding not to use its large militarized population after defeating three of the greatest empires in the world, as if the fighting the isolated Italians is somehow to much for the entire Central Powers to do and would just give up land and territory leading probably to their people, especially in Austria-Hungary, to revolt at the idea they won so they could give lands to the enemy.
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Keep it up @TheReformer ! I really look forward to what you have in store for us!
Well TheReformer, I found your story last week and after some days of catching up, I must say it's a good one!
Although I did not followed your first attempt at this timeline, I am thoroughly enjoying the Redux.
You have, I think, managed to deliver a narative that isn't solely focused on a single outcome or on a single nation, the result is very convincing as there's no feeling of exaggeration to the story. I have myself no problem with reading a good story where favouritism is present, when the writing is good and the research is elaborate enough, it is for me as much fun as it could be. But you're taking a different approach here and what you've managed to do so far is very interesting, I am looking forward for more.
There are lots of interesting possibilities here... More specifically, I'm wondering what are Germany's options if the British drag the war into 1919. The winter is going to be harsh for both the populace and the soldiers returning from the front. There's also (I think) the risk that the Russian 'troubles' spill over the new borders and force some form of military intervention which could potentially slow down the return of peacetime activities. The continued blockade is also a thorn is the Reich's sides that the government should try to sort out as quickly as possible, and for the British represent a useful bargaining chip because the German and no military means to lift it. If the Royal Navy decides to try its planned carrier-borne airstrike on Kiel and Wilhelmshaven during the winter, this might even become worse.
So yes, please carry on, I'll be following with interest!
Although I did not followed your first attempt at this timeline, I am thoroughly enjoying the Redux.
You have, I think, managed to deliver a narative that isn't solely focused on a single outcome or on a single nation, the result is very convincing as there's no feeling of exaggeration to the story. I have myself no problem with reading a good story where favouritism is present, when the writing is good and the research is elaborate enough, it is for me as much fun as it could be. But you're taking a different approach here and what you've managed to do so far is very interesting, I am looking forward for more.
There are lots of interesting possibilities here... More specifically, I'm wondering what are Germany's options if the British drag the war into 1919. The winter is going to be harsh for both the populace and the soldiers returning from the front. There's also (I think) the risk that the Russian 'troubles' spill over the new borders and force some form of military intervention which could potentially slow down the return of peacetime activities. The continued blockade is also a thorn is the Reich's sides that the government should try to sort out as quickly as possible, and for the British represent a useful bargaining chip because the German and no military means to lift it. If the Royal Navy decides to try its planned carrier-borne airstrike on Kiel and Wilhelmshaven during the winter, this might even become worse.
So yes, please carry on, I'll be following with interest!
Winning the Peace: Early Negotiations (September - November 1918)
Winning the Peace
Early Negotiations
August - October 1918
Two months after the surrender of every allied state besides Japan, Brazil, China, Britain and Portugal, Central Powers negotiators finally sat down to begin talks over the official end of the conflict.
At a glance one might assume that negotiations between a victorious Germany and her foes would be a matter of dictating terms, especially as ultimately Germany was the main power in the Central Powers and the opinions of the Austrians and Bulgarians, and especially Ottomans, mattered relatively little. This would be a misunderstanding of the nature of the relationship between Germany and the Allies though.
Despite the war being over on the continent, Germany was still under total naval blockade by the British. This left her vulnerable and with a massive clock hanging over her head. While Germany had slightly delayed this clock by removing her continental rivals, none were compelled to trade with her and having fought literally all of her neighbours she would only be able to relieve her starving people from the sea.
While Germany was no longer having shipping sunk by the majority of allied states, that mattered little if the British continued to do so in every passageway to their homeland. Additionally, the United States seemed eager to imply they would make things worse if they were not listened to.
Thus Germany had won the war, but much like at the Congress of Vienna they were hardly in a position to dictate unreasonable terms to the allies and the Americans - like the French in 1814 - had considerable sway.
A Shift In Priorities
While Germany could force France, Greece, Belgium, Serbia, the other minors and even Italy to an extent to sign anything, being too punitive might incite revolution and continued necessity for police actions - and more importantly may lead to a further blockade by Britain or the United States if dissatisfied.
Additionally, Germany lacked economic liquidity as the value of the Mark had dropped dramatically throughout the war through Germany’s policy of printing money to pay for the conflict. She was now deeply in debt, and worse still had stripped her country bare of it’s economic value through taxation which would make recovery doubly difficult. German currency in circulation rose 599 percent over the course of the war, and this meant that the mark would need to be brought back to normal levels to prevent hyperinflation - something that could only be done with significant foreign capital. This meant the war would have certainly been lost by the end of 1919, but also meant the peace could yet still be lost by then too.
As such, Germany entered negotiations with two factors in mind; the punitive desires of their own population and military leaders, and their own economic future relationship with the world.
Still led by the ‘extremists’ who sought to secure a peace in line with the ideas of the Alldeutsche Verband in Hindenberg and Ludendorffs’ protege Max Bauer though, negotiators found themselves pushed into demanding significant compensation from France, Belgium and Luxembourg in particular when talks began at Laeken Palace on September 5th.
Italian Demands
The first nation to negotiate with the Central Powers would be Italy, somewhat ironically given that the two powers had been the last to call truces. The different structure of the Italian ‘capiculation’ meant that negotiations kicked off within a week of the armistice, with both sides meeting in Geneva on August 12th to hash out a deal.
The German position was simple; accept a status quo conclusion to the conflict immediately with neither side extracting payment or territorial concessions, or face the threat of a second Caporetto. This position was further enforced by the deployment of the German 11th Army (von Steuben) to the border from the Macedonian front, with additional forces being prepared to move from the French front to prepare for an assault.
Italy for its part had other plans. Giolitti was willing to consider a status quo peace, but was aware that his current position was the strongest it likely would ever be, and thus sought to gain any meaningful symbol of Italian success in the war to justify it to the country.
Italy thus proposed several key demands. First, they sought to demand the annexation of the entirety of Tyrol, along with the city of Trieste and the Austrian Littoral. This was a non-serious proposal aimed at setting a higher bar than a plain status quo outcome for Italy, as well as some red meat thrown to the nationalists to allay tensions temporarily.
For Germany and Austria this was a non starter. Trieste at the very least would without a doubt stay Austrian - it was the main export port of Austria proper, and hosted a deeply multicultural population including a large population of Germans. The Austrian Littoral meanwhile featured few Italians, and thus in the most ironic and condescending tone Germany immediately invoked Wilson’s 14 points to reject such a proposal.
This left two areas in contention; Tyrol, and a small strip of land east of the existing Venetian towns of Palmanova and Cervignano, to the Austrian towns of Gorizia and Monfalcone. These would become the focal point of negotiations over the remainder of August and into early September. In reality though, both sides were somewhat playing for time.
In Italy, the Government sought to calm the domestic situation and strengthen the army on the front either in case of a rapid Austrian collapse, or in case of a German assault. While a truce was in place, both sides would almost certainly be willing to breach it to gain improved terms - particularly Germany who sought to play for time until France and the Balkan states were officially out of the conflict so as to crush Italy and thus render it a revolutionary unstable state that would never again threaten Austria’s security.
Early Demands at Brussels
German initial demands were enormous; envisioning a border on the Somme stretching to the Meuse for a protectorate in Belgium under total German political domination, with the German border stretching from the Meuse to Verdun and then south, seizing Nancy, Epinal and Belfort from France. Further, Luxembourg would be annexed as a state of Germany while Belgium and France would be forced to enter a new ‘Mitteleuropa’ economic community, and France would be required to repay indemnities of 100bn reichsmarks, so large that France would never economically recover, and never repay them.
The terms hit left Belgium and France outraged, and if it were not for their complete inability to continue the conflict immediately may have left the table. However, the United States had explicitly demanded as a part of their agreement to a truce that they attend both the Brussels and Vienna negotiations, and soon roundly condemned the Germans terms - announcing that if they were not softened, the US would continue to prosecute the war.
Hungary was determined that the war must end rapidly, and that Austria must not seize any territory from Italy or Serbia, while unrest across the eastern parts of the Empire and Bohemia was growing by the day.
With the surrender of France, Germany had also invented a new ‘genius’ plan to resolve their conundrum with Britain. Rather than immediately dictate terms to the capitulated Allies, they would play for time and prepare for a final, desperate attempt to destroy the British Home Fleet, and in doing so prevent Britain from extracting concessions from Germany for a separate peace.
Britain for it’s part had already made clear that it would not permit a totally German dominated continent, and it knew it could starve Germany into chaos if needs be - potentially for an entire year longer or more if they so wished.
Germany’s initial demands thus were rejected, after all - France had literally nothing to lose. If Germany left the talks, they would be forced to fight through the remainder of France against the weakened and partially demobilized but still threatening French Army, all while being militarily exhausted. This meant Germany was forced to start to slowly whittle down their demands - at least until the British fleet was defeated. Beginning a slow climb down, the Germans first began to soften demands over the northern provinces of France, and eventually dropped all pretence of expanding Belgium altogether.
Despite this German goals remained threefold; that France pay enormous reparations and publicly acknowledge that they, not the Germans, began the war in Belgium by deploying troops into the country - thus fulfilling German propaganda claims. Secondly, they were determined that the Briey-Longwy iron ore mines be surrendered - thus imposing upon France economic hegemony furthered by the Mitteleuropa organisation. Ideally too seizing a special economic zone in the Calais-Flanders region to abuse the large French coal basin. Thirdly, they aimed to politically dominate Belgium and procure naval access to French and Belgian northern ports to force the Royal Navy into a defensive posture.
These aims were realistic, but they would undoubtedly have to be reneged upon if there were ever to be peace with Britain - a necessity to end the economic blockade of Germany. Britain’s friendship with Belgium meant that any deal with the British would require either them to be defeated at sea, possibly throwing the country into revolution, or for Belgium to be given political independence from Germany - undermining her national security against France in the long term.
Thus, at the beginning of talks at the Laeken Palace on August 26th, Germany sought first to satiate the Americans through tongue in cheek promises about respecting the 14 terms. In particular Germany focused on the policy of freedom of navigation, playing Wilson’s demand against the British for their blockade, while also playing on the idea of Luxemberger ‘Germanhood’.
By removing the Americans, the OHL hoped that this would at least marginally weaken the British Grand Fleet which currently featured several American dreadnought class destroyers which could, in a pitched battle, tip the balance.
Demands in Vienna
In Vienna a different story would play out. Here German diplomats sat down with diplomats from Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, Italy, Greece and the United States - who were choosing to negotiate directly in Vienna rather than Brussels so as to strengthen Wilson’s 14 points and the right to self determination.
Meeting in the Habsburg Schönbrunn Palace on September 9th, diplomats from all sides quickly found that German proposals were equally as severe as they were in Brussels - albeit with different benefactors. Serbia for its part would be essentially cut in half in favour of massive Bulgarian expansion, relegating the country to a territory barely larger than its original 1833 borders with just the Podrinje, Posavina, Raska and parts of Sumadija remaining. Bulgaria intended further to implement Bulgarization, eradicating every sense of Serbian nationhood from the region and ultimately relegating it to Bulgarian territory. Blamed for instigating the war, the Kingdom would be forced to accept complicity for the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, along with overall guilt for the triggering of the war.
Montenegro for its part would surrender only one tiny sliver of territory in the Kotor district of the southern coastal territory on Mount Lovćen, a key strategic position overlooking virtually the entirety of Montenegro’s southern coast and access to that territory. Danilo, Crown Prince of Montenegro, would also accede to the throne after the abdication of his father Nicholas, who was seen as a destabilising influence over the region thanks to his irredentist policies.
Albania meanwhile would restore King Wilhelm, Prince of Albania, a German supported by the Bulgarians and condoned by the Austrians, to prevent a power struggle between the two allies over the small nation’s future. The nation would lose some territories in eastern Albania though to the larger Bulgarian Military Inspection Area of Macedonia where Bulgaria intended to Bulgarize the population and annex it. Besides this, the country would remain territorially identical.
Greece, having ‘flipped’ sides at the last possible second with their Royal restoration, would be punished remarkably lightly by the Germans. Losing northern territories to Bulgaria, Greece would be punished enough simply by the loss of territories claimed with such effort in the Balkan Wars. This was a bitter pill to swallow for many Greeks, but ultimately was a low price for their participation in the war compared to the losses of her allies. Thessaloniki, Greece’s vital northern port, would remain Greek, while Bulgaria would realise its irredentist dreams by annexing entirely all of Vardar Macedonia.
Having set out terms to both major parties, the Central Powers now had to tread carefully. The war might be ‘over’, but in practice it continued at sea and elsewhere. Britain and the United States remained dangerous, yet demotivated foes - and just as with Napoleon, Britain had no plans to allow Germany to dictate the new order of Europe. Not alone anyway.
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I think Germany is going to make a foolish sea attack that blows up in there face, making a lighter peace treaty for those negotiations in Brussels. The Vienna negotiations is probably going look very similar to the initial demands, maybe Bulgaria might have to dial it back with the gains especially in Serbia but the rest are not that shocking. The Italian situation seems like Italy is playing a game of chicken it could lose. They need to blink and accept the status quo treaty when they have some power, sign a treaty in a panic if those revolutions begin to pick up, or they will decided to pick up fighting and really regret it later.