@Milites , great update as always. I do think that you were able to find the most plausible spin to the whole alternative Mohacs campaign. I believe you did a very good job depicting how powerful Ottoman military machine really was: even with all allied contingents that were able to reach Louis ITTL Suleiman almost surely could take Buda had he been absolutely determined to, but since he achieved his goals for campaign he chose to retreat (IOTL of course Ottomans entered the abandoned Buda, but retreated after pillaging it; since ITTL Buda is actually defended by a sizable army, it makes a lot of sense to avoid a costly siege or assault).
P. S. on an unrelated note, I have reread the previous chapter and have noticed that on the map Albertine and Ernestine Saxonies have their colores swapped (that is Ernestine Saxony should be a part of Evangelical League of Torgau, not Catholic League of Dessau and vice versa).
I’d like to give my 5 cents on the ongoing and upcoming events in Hungary:
1. IOTL Ottomans despite their overwhelming success did not try to annex large parts of Hungary in 1526 (IOTL it happened in 1541 after Zapolya’s death) and have left the country content with their loot and reducing Hungarian military might despite taking an abandoned Buda (the last bit is of course butterflied ITTL). So while Hungarian losses are smaller ITTL and Ottomans have fewer loot from Ottoman perspective the changes are probably very minor.
2. Civil war between Zapolya and pro-German faction is also very much OTL. Of course ITTL position of Zapolya is much weaker than it was IOTL: unlike IOTL the legitimate king is alive, as well as many of his supporters who IOTL died on the field of Mohacs, but survived ITTL (of course ITTL pro-royal party has also suffered substantial losses in the campaign, but not nearly as devastating as IOTL).
So, the main immediate difference in the aftermath of campaign between IOTL and ITTL is that the "royal" (or pro-German) party in Hungary is much stronger than it was IOTL (of course Louis surviving may lead to important dynastic butterflies but this changes if they indeed do happen are not immediate). While the possible next Ottoman invasion would probably go harder than it did IOTL (given that the Hungarian suffered less losses than they did IOTL), they are still very much able to take large swaths of Hungary if they want to do so.
The difference with IOTL is that Ottomans probably have less reasons to invade: Louis on the northern border ITTL is definitely not as threatening as allowing Ferdinand to control Hungary unopposed and Zapolya that IOTL was a good figure against Ferdinand’s dominance is probably perceived weaker candidate than he was IOTL (and thus invasions in his support are probably less likely).
ITTL Louis’s position is much stronger than Ferdinand’s IOTL: while his foreign allies are unlikely to provide him support against Zapolya, the army of Hungarian royal partisans is at least equal to Zapolya’s in numbers (and probably at least slightly superior). Given the fact that Zapolya ITTL is undoubtfully an usurper and the accusations of him being in agreement with Suleiman, I don’t think he will be able attract much more supporters than Louis. And even if Zapolya would be able to overcome Louis against all odds, if the situation would become really threatening for the king his allies (chiefly Ferdinand) would undoubtably support him.
So, in my opinion the only chance Zapolya has is to get a large direct military aid from either Poland or Ottoman Empire. Of course, Sigismund and Suleiman both have other uses for their armies. And even if they do get involved, Zapolya’s victory is by no means guaranteed, as such involvement would probably lead to Ferdinand and Bohemian estates providing similar help to Louis.
P. S. on an unrelated note, I have reread the previous chapter and have noticed that on the map Albertine and Ernestine Saxonies have their colores swapped (that is Ernestine Saxony should be a part of Evangelical League of Torgau, not Catholic League of Dessau and vice versa).
I’d like to give my 5 cents on the ongoing and upcoming events in Hungary:
An absolutely magnificent update. I really enjoy the spin on Mohacs this time around. It is a bit funny how perspectives change when you try to contrast these sorts of events to their OTL counterparts. I am not entirely sure, but I actually think that this result might be more beneficial to the Ottomans than the OTL sequence of events - Hungary is removed as a formidable force on the northern border, instead splintered by civil war and effectively removed from the Habsburg arsenal. It replaces the OTL constant back-and-forth with what is essentially a greatly weakened buffer state and allows the Ottomans to concentrate their resources more directly on whatever ongoing trouble spot they seek to deal with.
The amount of work and research put into this is incredible - knowing how difficult it is to find from my own TL experiments with this period, the level of detail you are able to draw out is frankly disgusting. This remains my favorite TL in the pre-1900 forum and I can't wait to see what more you have in store for us.
I think it’s more complex, if the Hungarians are permanent weaken the Ottomans will make a move to conquer Hungary again, while if the king wins he will likely break the nobility and set up a proto-absolute state up. This would leave Ottomans with a stronger Hungary with good relationship with the emperor meaning the Hungarians can always focus on the Ottomans.
I'd like to point out that while the disaster of Mohacs is avoided ITTL the resolution of the campaign is not that different from IOTL:As always, I'm glad to see the excellent writing -- and excellent mapmaking -- of this TL return.
Stephen Brodarics is clearly the smartest man in Hungary, especially when one has the OTL hindsight of what happened at Mohacs. The Hungarian elite, IOTL as ITTL, is outright delusional -- and Louis II is a) not as able as Bela II, who saved Hungary from total destruction by the Mongols, and b) tied to a Bohemia that is already old hand at the coming century of religious strife. Even compared to other examples -- like the Portuguese before Alcacerquibir or the late-stage Polish szlachta -- they seem hellbent on crippling the realm for their own personal benefit. It's incredible how the pendulum swung from Corvinus to this -- and as others have pointed out upthread, this prolonged civil war and furthering hollowing-out of Hungary may well be worse than the swift decapitation of IOTL.
I'm rooting for the quixotic rebels of Black Serbia (as opposed to Montenegro, the other black Serbia) -- and I have to wonder how long the Croats will tolerate this collapse of royal authority and regional security before entertaining a revival of the Crown of Zvonimir (perhaps given to the ascendant Germans?) As Zulfurium also points out, the Ottomans are not yet tied down officially in Hungary -- perhaps Black Serbia or Croatia will become a Phanariot-run puppet state, and the Vlachs will instead be subjected to direct rule from Constantinople? With the Russians doing better against Kazan, a direct land connection to the Crimean Khanate may be more necessary than IOTL.
I also have to wonder what play the Bohemians will go for, especially given the advent of Protestantism. Without the direct Habsburg inheritance, and with their tradition of selecting kings instead of firm primogeniture, I'd guess that it is more likely that the Bohemian crown will (eventually) go to a Protestant German prince as opposed to the Habsburgs - the directly neighboring Saxon Wettins make sense, as does the House of Brandenburg.
1. IOTL Ottomans despite their overwhelming success did not try to annex large parts of Hungary in 1526 (IOTL it happened in 1541 after Zapolya’s death) and have left the country content with their loot and reducing Hungarian military might despite taking an abandoned Buda (the last bit is of course butterflied ITTL). So while Hungarian losses are smaller ITTL and Ottomans have fewer loot from Ottoman perspective the changes are probably very minor.
2. Civil war between Zapolya and pro-German faction is also very much OTL. Of course ITTL position of Zapolya is much weaker than it was IOTL: unlike IOTL the legitimate king is alive, as well as many of his supporters who IOTL died on the field of Mohacs, but survived ITTL (of course ITTL pro-royal party has also suffered substantial losses in the campaign, but not nearly as devastating as IOTL).
So, the main immediate difference in the aftermath of campaign between IOTL and ITTL is that the "royal" (or pro-German) party in Hungary is much stronger than it was IOTL (of course Louis surviving may lead to important dynastic butterflies but this changes if they indeed do happen are not immediate). While the possible next Ottoman invasion would probably go harder than it did IOTL (given that the Hungarian suffered less losses than they did IOTL), they are still very much able to take large swaths of Hungary if they want to do so.
The difference with IOTL is that Ottomans probably have less reasons to invade: Louis on the northern border ITTL is definitely not as threatening as allowing Ferdinand to control Hungary unopposed and Zapolya that IOTL was a good figure against Ferdinand’s dominance is probably perceived weaker candidate than he was IOTL (and thus invasions in his support are probably less likely).
I personally do find Zapolya’s victory extremely unlikely baring decisive foreign involvement. IOTL Zapolya’s initial position in the Civil War was much stronger than ITTL (see item 2 above). Ottomans have also delivered him Buda, so he controlled a much larger portion of Hungary than ITTL. And yet by 1528 he was already decisively defeated by Ferdinand and forced to seek help first from his Polish allies (Sigismund’s first wife was John’s siter, so he very friendly to Zapolya and provided him diplomatic support at least since 1526) and in 1529 from the hated Ottomans (going as far as receiving the Crown of St. Stephen from Turks on the very field of Mohacs).I'll put out a guess though that Zapolya will probably win most of Hungary. His rhetoric will simply be more appealing to the nobles, and he'll probably only realize the shitty position he put himself into when he's the one suddenly holding royal authority. The Jagiellons will probably retreat to Bohemia. I could see the Habsurg's somehow all but making Croatia a vassal somehow. As the Jagiellons will likely hold onto their claims to Hungary and the Haburgs will want Hungary retaken, I sort of imagine Hungary will instead become a bugger state between the Habsurg's and Ottomans. Technically independent, but honestly not able to challenge anyone in either direction without the aid of the other.
ITTL Louis’s position is much stronger than Ferdinand’s IOTL: while his foreign allies are unlikely to provide him support against Zapolya, the army of Hungarian royal partisans is at least equal to Zapolya’s in numbers (and probably at least slightly superior). Given the fact that Zapolya ITTL is undoubtfully an usurper and the accusations of him being in agreement with Suleiman, I don’t think he will be able attract much more supporters than Louis. And even if Zapolya would be able to overcome Louis against all odds, if the situation would become really threatening for the king his allies (chiefly Ferdinand) would undoubtably support him.
So, in my opinion the only chance Zapolya has is to get a large direct military aid from either Poland or Ottoman Empire. Of course, Sigismund and Suleiman both have other uses for their armies. And even if they do get involved, Zapolya’s victory is by no means guaranteed, as such involvement would probably lead to Ferdinand and Bohemian estates providing similar help to Louis.
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