Three Men, One Island - A Cuban Missile Crisis timeline

Title Page
- Hey there BLC!!
- Hello voice of doubt in my head.

- What's this?
- Urm... just a little side project.

- Whatever happened to "War makes for Strange Bedfellows"
- Oh it's still alive, don't worry. That's still my priority. I'm still working on the next chapters.

- So why this?
- Well, the idea popped into my head, so I wrote it down on my phone to save for later.

- Interesting. So why now?
- Because my phone is running out of storage and I needed to delete some files. I decided to shift this onto the forum to clear phone space.

- Right, ok. The idea for this doesn't seem very original.
- Yeah, I know. Plenty of people have covered the Cuban Missile Crisis (Amerigo Vespucci's "The Cuban Missile War Timeline" timeline springs to mind), but I thought I'd give it a go as well. If you want something original, I've got a medieval timeline largely planned out whenever "War makes for Strange Bedfellows" is done.


Three Men, One Island - A Cuban Missile Crisis timeline

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"Berlin is the testicle of the West. When I want the West to scream, I squeeze on Berlin"
- Nikita Khrushchev

"Men do not shape destiny, destiny produces the man for the hour"
- Fidel Castro

"Mankind must put an end to war, or war will put an end to mankind"

- John F. Kennedy

Well, here we go then.

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Prologue 1 – Brave New World

Prologue 1 – Brave New World

1947 – 1962

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“Cuba is like to a whole other planet.”

– Henry Louis Gates




As of late 1962, the Cold War had been raging since at least 1947, of not earlier. 

Since the end of the Second World War, the world became split between Soviet and American spheres of influence. During that time, both sides became obsessed, even possessed by the fear of the other side starting World War III. This was exacerbated by the development of nuclear weapons.

Since World War II, there had been only two uses of nuclear weapons in war, and both were against the same nation. In July 1945, the United States developed the first atomic bomb with the Trinity Test. On the 6th of August 1945, the first atomic bomb to be used in combat (named “Little Boy”) was dropped over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, on the 9th, a second bomb (named “Fat Man”) was dropped over Nagasaki. Six days later, Japan surrendered, ending World War II.

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The mushroom clouds rising over the cities of Hiroshima (left) and Nagasaki (right) towards the end of the Second World War, August 1945

From the moment the first test was conducted, in the New Mexico desert in 1945, the fear of what such weapons could theoretically do if proliferated on a large-scale began to spread worldwide. Combined with the burgeoning Cold War and events such as the Berlin Blockade, Fall of China and Korean War combined this fear with the “perpetual paranoia of whatever the other guy was doing” (as one future historian would exquisitely describe it).

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American Douglas C-54 Skymaster aircraft delivering supplies to West Berliners during the 1948-49 Berlin Blockade

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Mao Zedong proclaiming the People's Republic of China on the 1st of October 1949

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United States Marines fighting in the Korean War of 1950 to 1953

The mixture was toxic in the worst possible ways, given the end result, especially following the development of the hydrogen bomb. It was widely believed that the only way the Cold War would end would be in atomic fire and the eradication of humanity.

Were these fears founded? At the time, they didn't know, and did not want to find out. But, they would be put to the test in the autumn of 1962, in the most unlikely of places.

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Is it a nuclear war timeline? Or is it a different Cuban Missile Crisis pne without jukes?
(I am hoping for the first choice to be true)
 
Prologue 2 – Caribbean Sunshine

Prologue 2 – Caribbean Sunshine

1898 – 1962

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“Cuba ought to be free and independent and the government should be turned over to the Cuban people.”

– William McKinley



As the title of this work suggests, the fate of the world in those fateful days in 1962 was guided by the actions of three men, over one island.

The island? A large Caribbean one off the coast of Florida known to you and me as Cuba. Our tale really begins in 1898, after Cuba finally achieved its independence from the Kingdom of Spain after three attempts to throw off colonial rule from Madrid, this last one receiving direct aid from the United States of America in the brief Spanish-American War.


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Battle of San Juan Hill during the 1898 Spanish-American War, which the 1895-98 Cuban War of Independence was subsumed into.

The newly independent Cuba almost immediately ended up under American dominance, including the permanent lease of Guantanamo Bay to the United States. To cut a long story short, I'll cut out the history of Cuba between this point and 1959, when the Cuban Revolution concluded with the victory of Fidel Castro's revolutionary forces against the regime of Fulgencio Batista.

With Batista's ousting, a revolutionary government seized control in Havana with Fidel Castro, the first of our three men, appointed as Prime Minister on the 16th of February 1959. Quickly, the liberal elements of the government were pushed out by the communists led by Fidel Castro, the first of our three men. After failing to garner support from the United States, President Eisenhower refusing to meet Castro and Vice President Nixon taking a strong dislike to him, Castro began to nationalise American-owned property in Cuba. This was followed by several other steps to move Cuba in the direction of socialism. Washington, fearing the so-called "Domino Effect" (by which one country falling to communism what cause the surrounding states to fall as well) with communism in Cuba spreading to the rest of Latin America. America's response was to embargo Cuba (an arms embargo against Batista already in effect since 1958). When this didn't work, the CIA drew up a plan with anti-Castro Cuban exiles to invade Cuba and overthrow Castro.

This plan turned into the bungled Bay of Pigs invasion. The invasion was a hopeless failure, with the new US President John F. Kennedy only committing half-heartedly. This convinced Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev that Kennedy was a weak leader who could easily be bullied.

However, it wasn’t so easy for Khrushchev either. In March 1962, Castro purged Anibal Escalante from Cuba’s ruling party, the “Integrated Revolutionary Organisations”. This scared the Soviets since Escalante represented the pro-Moscow wing of the Cuban government and therefore the Soviets stepped up their support for Cuba fearing that Castro may gravitate towards China. A regiment of Soviet ground troops and more SA-2 anti-aircraft missiles were soon being transported to the Caribbean.
Regarding direct American-Soviet relations, times were tense as well, mostly revolving over the 1961 Berlin Crisis and the so-called “missile gap”. During the former, American and Soviet tanks had stood off at Checkpoint Charlie and the East German government had constructed the Berlin Wall to stop the brain drain as many educated East German workers defected through West Berlin.

Regarding the missile gap, well that was just a political joke. Ever since the launch of Sputnik 1 by the Soviet Union in 1957, the Americans had believed that the Soviets possessed a larger number of missiles than the United States and that they were of a higher quality than American missiles. Well, that was the narrative many American politicians used to convince voters to elect them. Kennedy was no exception, attacking his 1960 election opponent, Richard Nixon, for allowing the creation of the so-called “missile gap.” The Soviets weren’t entirely innocent though. Khrushchev was more than happy to exaggerate Soviet capabilities, such as stating that the Soviet Union was churning out missiles “like sausages” and circling the same missiles around at parades to make it look like they had more.

By August 1962, the Americans suspected that the Soviets might be building missile facilities on Cuba. In mid-October, they were proven right. On the 14th of October 1962, an American U-2 spy plane photographed three Soviet medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) launch sites suitable for SS-4 and SS-5 missiles. The news was relayed to McGeorge Bundy, the National Security Advisor, on the 15th. Kennedy was informed by Bundy on the 16th. The countdown had begun. To deal with this crisis, the Executive Committee of the National Security Council (EXCOMM) was founded. A number of potential solutions were discussed:
- Total inaction.
- Place diplomatic pressure on the Soviets to withdraw the missiles
- Secretly place pressure on Castro to withdraw the missiles, threatening invasion of he refused.
- Blockade Cuba.
- Launch a series of air strikes over Cuba to destroy the missiles.
- Invade Cuba to destroy the missiles and remove Castro from power.
The first option was instantly ruled out. Even if the Cuban missiles didn't change the strategic balance of power, the Americans possessing 27,000 nuclear warheads compared to the Soviets 3,000, the political balance was shifted. The Soviets would now have nuclear first-strike capability against the United States and if the missiles became operational, could be used as a threat and bargaining chip by the Soviets to obtain West Berlin.

On the 18th, Kennedy met with Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko, who insisted that all Soviet weapons in Cuba were for solely defensive purposes.

On the 21st of October, EXCOMM decided upon the blockade option, calling it a "quarantine" since a blockade was officially an act of war. On the 23rd, Kennedy delivered a televised speech announcing the "quarantine" of Cuba.

Over the next six days the crisis continued to heat up. On the 24th, George Ball suggested making an offer to withdraw America's near-obsolete missiles from Italy and Turkey in exchange for the Soviets removing their missiles from Cuba. The suggestion was rejected. In Moscow, Khrushchev accused Kennedy of "outright piracy" and warned that the quarantine would lead to war. On the 25th, US ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Adlai Stevenson humiliated his Soviet counterpart Valerian Zorin. When the latter denied the existence of Soviet nuclear weapons in Cuba, the former produced photographic evidence that the ambassador was lying and that the missiles were indeed there.

On the 26th, the crisis was a definitive stalemate, with no side appearing to change their position. Kennedy addressed EXCOMM, informing them pf his belief that only an invasion would remove the missiles. U-2 flights over Cuba were increased from two per day to one every two hours. In secret, Soviet-American negotiations continued through John Scali negotiating for Kennedy and Alexsandr Feklisov (cover name Alexandr Fomin). Also that day, Castro sent a letter to Khrushchev, urging him to launch a nuclear first-strike against the United States should they attack Cuba. That evening, the State Department received a personal message from Khrushchev. It was long and encrypted, but once deciphered and read, it appeared to be genuine. That was the last time Kennedy would feel hopeful about resolving the crisis.

The next day, the 27th of October, was fast approaching. The day where everything that could go wrong, would go wrong. In the worst possible of ways.

Sources

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Chapter 1 – Shot Heard Around the World

Chapter 1 – Shot Heard Around the World

27 October 1962

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“The 1930s taught us a clear lesson; aggressive conduct, if allowed to go unchecked and unchallenged, ultimately leads to war.”

– John F. Kennedy



It couldn’t have gone worse even if it had been planned this way. According to Murphy’s Law, “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.” Sometimes the suffix “and at the worst possible time.” is added.

The day did not begin well. At 09:00 EDT, Khrushchev appeared to backtrack on his commitment yesterday. Namely that the Cuban missiles would be dismantled in exchange for an American pledge to respect Cuban sovereignty and not invade. The new offer saw Khrushchev pledge to withdraw the missiles from Cuba if the Americans withdrew their Jupiter missiles from Turkey and Italy. The Turks refused to accept the trade, whilst Italian prime Minister Amintore Fanfani was willing to allow the Jupiter missiles based in Apulia in Southern Italy to be removed to end the crisis.

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Amintore Fanfani, Prime Minister of Italy

At 12:00 EDT, disaster struck. USAF Major Rudolf Anderson’s U-2 spy plane was shot down by a Soviet SA-2 anti-aircraft missile whilst flying over Cuba. When Anderson failed to return to McCoy air force in Florida, it is determined that he was likely shot down given the information [1]. Anderson was the first casualty of the Third World War, just hours before it began [2].

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Major Rudolf Anderson (1927-1962), first fatality of the Third World War

At 13:00 EDT, the American destroyers USS Beale, Cony and Murray pick up a suspicious sonar contact. They pursue it. They discover it is a Soviet Foxtrot-class submarine, the B-59. At 16:17 EDT, the USS Beale attempts to communicate with the sub by dropping practice depth charges to force the B-59 to surface. Meanwhile, in Washington, EXCOMM agrees to respond to Khrushchev’s trade offer of Cuban missiles for Turkish ones. However, the Americans must be given five months to complete withdrawal (the Jupiters were obsolete and slated for removal anyway) and the offer must be kept secret. Otherwise, the deal is off. This occurred at around 16:30 EDT.

The crisis looked as though it would be over. All that needed to happen was for Khrushchev to accept Kennedy’s newest offer and the whole world could breathe a sigh of relief. Their hopes were to be dashed in such brutal fashion in less than an hour.

By 17:15 EDT, the atmosphere aboard the B-59 was toxic, both literally and metaphorically. Low on batteries and oxygen, high in CO2 and anxiety, Captain Valentin Savitsky believes that the depth charges are real, and that World War III had broken out. He decided to launch one of the B-59's nuclear torpedoes. The political officer, Ivan Semyonovich Maslennikov, agreed to the launch. Had the flotilla’s chief of staff, Captain Vasily Arkhipov, been aboard as well, his approval would have been needed as well. Alas, he was not [3].

At 17:15, the 15-kiloton torpedo was launched, headed in the direction of the USS Cony at a speed of 40 knots. Thirty-one seconds later, it detonates. In an instant, the USS Beale and Cony are vapourised. The Murray was damaged beyond repair and most of her crewmen were killed. Nearby, servicemen on the USS Randolph aircraft carrier were blinded by the blast.

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Aboard the B-59, the Captain Second Class can only shut his eyes.

"It's done now," he remarks to himself. Seconds later, he is knocked off his feet by an almighty blast wave. He tumbles forward into a map console, and suddenly he was at peace.


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The Captain of the USS Murray got up. The blast had shaken the ship pretty bad. He brushed the side of his head.

"Blood," he thought. "Shit!" He could hardly hear himself think. The sound of his crewmen screaming in pain occupied too much of his headspace to do that.


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Aboard the USS Randolph, the Chaplain could only stare in horror at the plume in the distance. The airman standing beside him could hardly operate his Kodak camera, his hands were shaking too much.

Footnotes
- [1] So far, all this happened in OTL as well.
- [2] Sounds quite ominous.
- [3] The POD. In OTL, Arkhipov, a cool-headed man who talked Savitsky out of launching against the Americans, was aboard the B-59. Here, he isn’t there. Therefore, no one can talk Savitsky out of launching.

Sources

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tonycat77

Banned
Using depth charges and not a underwater phone, or even morse coded sonar pings against a submarine of a hostile nation as "communication", has to be one of the most baffling things i ever read.
 
Using depth charges and not a underwater phone, or even morse coded sonar pings against a submarine of a hostile nation as "communication", has to be one of the most baffling things i ever read.
That's OTL, the whole operation was under most secrecy and did work OTL, no one knew about them besides the occasional lucky shot
 

tonycat77

Banned
That's OTL, the whole operation was under most secrecy and did work OTL, no one knew about them besides the occasional lucky shot
I know, it's OTL, i wonder why no one thought in the destroyer: "Huh, maybe we shouldn't send depth charges that sound and feel like the real stuff on a diesel submarine that is probably nuclear armed and low on batteries".
 
I know, it's OTL, i wonder why no one thought in the destroyer: "Huh, maybe we shouldn't send depth charges that sound and feel like the real stuff on a diesel submarine that is probably nuclear armed and low on batteries".
Because people wanted war and that was a direct provocation, poking the hornet nest
 

marathag

Banned
I know, it's OTL, i wonder why no one thought in the destroyer: "Huh, maybe we shouldn't send depth charges that sound and feel like the real stuff on a diesel submarine that is probably nuclear armed and low on batteries".
Those charge were roughly the size of a hand grenade.

And pings aren't like you get from Hollywood.
There's no such 'One ping only' with modern gear, with 'Modern' being 1950s onward.
 

marathag

Banned
Because people wanted war and that was a direct provocation, poking the hornet nest
If the USN wanted War, they would have used Weapon Alpha, a long range, fast sinking depth bomb
and for real WWIII action, the Mk 101 'Lulu' fast sinking bomb carried by Neptune and Orion ASW aircraft.
here is what the earlier 'Betty' depth charge was about
 
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Chapter 2 – The Dominoes Fall

Chapter 2 – The Dominoes Fall

27 October 1962

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“There is no glory in battle worth the blood it costs.”

– Dwight D. Eisenhower



News of the blast spread out very quickly. At 17:21 EDT, the Pentagon had been informed. After conversing with the Captain of the USS Randolph, Defence Secretary Robert McNamara remarks to an aide, “It’s a world war.” McNamara does not immediately inform Admiral Anderson, Chief of Naval Operations, instead choosing to attempt to reach Kennedy first. He would later state in his memoirs that he feared Anderson may have ordered a first-strike without Presidential authorisation, which was within his powers to do. At 17:23 EDT, Kennedy was informed of the detonation. His first words to McNamara over the phone were “Ours or theirs?” Following this, Kennedy personally informs Admiral Anderson of the detonation. Anderson's words to Kennedy were "If you give me the order to strike sir, I can order our submarines to strike their targets inside the Soviet Union within minutes." Kennedy chooses to proceed with caution, saying that "It's not certain at present who's launched." Kennedy does, however, state that Anderson may order a launch if there are any further attacks AND if he is unreachable.

At the same time, Kennedy receives a similar call from elsewhere in the country, Nebraska. Commander-in-Chief Strategic Air Command Thomas Power is attempting to reach the President. He also has news of the blast. If the President is unreachable, he can launch SAC's bombers and missiles against the Soviet Union - and he intends to. A voice from down the line saying "Hello?" prevents this. Power requests permission to launch, but the President holds back like he had done with Admiral Anderson. Power's launch authority does not change. If the President is unreachable, he can launch. Just not right now.

EXCOMM is summoned to an emergency meeting at 17:34 EDT. It does not take long to decide that the Soviets fired first, and what they must do in response. Kennedy authorises the US Navy to engage and destroy all Soviet vessels west of the 60th meridian west. At the same time, the Air Force is to destroy the Soviet missiles in Cuba, with the attack expected to begin at 19:35 EDT. If the Soviets fired the first shots, the United States must protect itself. Admiral Anderson (Chief of Naval Operations) and General LeMay (Chief of Staff of the Air Force) receive their orders by 17:50 EDT, but are also informed that nuclear weapons are not authorised at this time, this is a proportionate response.

Kennedy instructs White House Press Secretary Pierre Salinger to inform the press that he will address the nation at 19:30 EDT, roughly 5 minutes before the air strikes against Cuba are expected to begin.

Khrushchev became aware of the detonation when he is woken up at 00:53 Moscow Time (17:53 EDT), some twenty minutes after Kennedy. Moscow discovers the news from a nearby Soviet freighter, reporting a massive explosion nearby matching the description of an underwater nuclear torpedo. Khrushchev’s first were “Ours or theirs?” He is also informed that the B-59 is missing. The Presidium is summoned to an emergency meeting as soon as possible, they meet at 01:35 Moscow Time (18:35 EDT). They do not no who fired first, but assume it must be the Americans. Khrushchev authorises the Soviet Navy to engage American ships on the high seas, but only as self-defense if fired upon. The definition of self-defense is vague. At the same time, all Soviet strategic forces are to be put on high alert. If this is now a shooting war, the Soviet Union cannot be caught off guard.

Just before 19:30 EDT, President Kennedy reviewed his planned speech. He felt shivers descend his spine. Was this the beginning of World War III? Would it end in nuclear war? As he sat down behind the Oval Office desk in front of the cameras, his mind wondered to the many possible ways this crisis could end. His thoughts were interrupted by the cameraman sounding the countdown. "3, 2, 1, we're live."

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Were you inspired by @Amerigo Vespucci's Cuban Missile War and @Geon's Voices of Doomsday (a spinoff of the Cuban Missile War TL) TLs, by any chance? This is looking similar to those TLs...

Good start, BTW...
Yes, I was inspired by Cuban Missile War and Voices of Doomsday, and the early phases of this timeline may look similar. I have plans to make this timeline differ from those excellent pieces of work.

I also took some inspiration from Macragge1's Protect and Survive for some of the layout as well.
 
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