...Those Marvelous Tin Fish: The Great Torpedo Scandal Avoided

[CT7834]

Oh, absolutely.

There are all sorts of PODs that can get you to save Yorktown. We're talking about a carrier that sustained three separate attacks inflicting heavy damage before she finally sunk. Butterfly just one of those away, and you almost certainly keep your carrier.

Still, in aggregate, the United States came out near the high end of plausible outcomes, if we roll our mythical 20-sided dice a bunch of times. Nimitz had every reason to think he'd had a great night at the casino.

Oh I've been working on this one. Depending on where the POD takes place it may be possible for Yorktown to be repaired in time for the Battle of Santa Cruz

 

[Athelstane]

Oh I've been working on this one. Depending on where the POD takes place it may be possible for Yorktown to be repaired in time for the Battle of Santa Cruz

You can save her from sinking by stopping I-168's attack (as Parshall rightly insists in the interview), but . . . probably not for Santa Cruz availability.

I think you really have to butterfly away the torpedo attack at 1600 to keep her stay in Bremerton short enough to have any chance of being available for Santa Cruz. Saratoga's 4.5 month stay in Bremerton for its *single* torpedo hit on January 11 is instructive here...

[You may have seen this already, but here is a study of Yorktown's Midway battle damage, which also includes the complete Executive Officer's report.]

 

[Spencersj345.346]

If you save Lexington she should probably be available for Santa Cruz.

 

[CT7834]

You can save her from sinking by stopping I-168's attack (as Parshall rightly insists in the interview), but . . . probably not for Santa Cruz availability.

I think you really have to butterfly away the torpedo attack at 1600 to keep her stay in Bremerton short enough to have any chance of being available for Santa Cruz. Saratoga's 4.5 month stay in Bremerton for its *single* torpedo hit on January 11 is instructive here...

[You may have seen this already, but here is a study of Yorktown's Midway battle damage, which also includes the complete Executive Officer's report.]

I agree. With just bomb damage (both in terms of actual and near hits). Yorktown’s stay in Bremerton could be cut down to the same duration Enterprise was there during 1943 (So roughly 3 months). But that would include an extensive modernisation.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

I agree. With just bomb damage (both in terms of actual and near hits). Yorktown’s stay in Bremerton could be cut down to the same duration Enterprise was there during 1943 (So roughly 3 months). But that would include an extensive modernisation.

And if Lexington had made it she'd probably have been there for at least as long and more than likely four months. Of course she also probably would have arrived there at least a couple weeks ahead of the Yorktown since she basically probably would have been just refueled at Pearl and then sent straight there

 

[CT7834]

And if Lexington had made it she'd probably have been there for at least as long and more than likely four months. Of course she also probably would have arrived there at least a couple weeks ahead of the Yorktown since she basically probably would have been just refueled at Pearl and then sent straight there

Damage or no damage. Lexington’s anti-aircraft guns and other systems were obsolete by the time of Pearl Harbor and aside from a few touch ups. She was overdue for an modernisation.

 

[Athelstane]

I agree. With just bomb damage (both in terms of actual and near hits). Yorktown’s stay in Bremerton could be cut down to the same duration Enterprise was there during 1943 (So roughly 3 months). But that would include an extensive modernisation.

I think the estimate of Yorktown's damage control people was that the Coral Sea damage required three months in dry dock. The same seems likely true of the Midway bomb damage, and these could be done concurrently.

That torpedo damage, though, really did a number on her hull and engines....

And if Lexington had made it she'd probably have been there for at least as long and more than likely four months. Of course she also probably would have arrived there at least a couple weeks ahead of the Yorktown since she basically probably would have been just refueled at Pearl and then sent straight there

Damage or no damage. Lexington’s anti-aircraft guns and other systems were obsolete by the time of Pearl Harbor and aside from a few touch ups. She was overdue for an modernisation.

Good point.

Every ATL point of departure can be worth exploring, but Yorktown would have been the more valuable of the two to keep, and it would have (butterflying torpedo damage) required less time in Bremerton.

 

[CT7834]

I think the estimate of Yorktown's damage control people was that the Coral Sea damage required three months in dry dock. The same seems likely true of the Midway bomb damage, and these could be done concurrently.

That torpedo damage, though, really did a number on her hull and engines....





Good point.

Every ATL point of departure can be worth exploring, but Yorktown would have been the more valuable of the two to keep, and it would have (butterflying torpedo damage) required less time in Bremerton.

There is one tiny issue. How to get the US Navy into a position where they still need to borrow HMS Victorious/ USS Robin. Without loosing (not sunk but still damaged) the pre-war carriers?

 

[Athelstane]

There is one tiny issue. How to get the US Navy into a position where they still need to borrow HMS Victorious/ USS Robin. Without loosing (not sunk but still damaged) the pre-war carriers?

It's a lot harder.

The U.S. was literally down to just Saratoga in the Pacific when they finally got Churchill to agree to a loaner.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

To be fair I can't imagine Lexington taking more than a couple extra weeks than her sister to fix and modernize. Given Saratoga took 87 days from her arrival in Bremerton to when she left I think we could probably safely assume Lexington would take around 100 given the extra damage she had. Assuming she pulls into Bremerton on say June 8th that gives her 42 days to get to Santa Cruz in time.

 

[CT7834]

To be fair I can't imagine Lexington taking more than a couple extra weeks than her sister to fix and modernize. Given Saratoga took 87 days from her arrival in Bremerton to when she left I think we could probably safely assume Lexington would take around 100 given the extra damage she had. Assuming she pulls into Bremerton on say June 8th that gives her 42 days to get to Santa Cruz in time.

She might make it for the Naval Battle of Guadalcanal. Assuming Midway and Santa Cruz went the way the did. A refurbished Lexington and repaired Saratoga backing up the battered Enterprise. May cause enough headaches for the Japanese that could result in them either withdrawing earlier. Or go into a final Banzai charge.

That being said, your math is a bit off. 100 days starting from June 8 1942. Would mean Lexington leaving dry dock would be on September 16 1942. So that’s one day after Wasp was sunk by I-19. Santa Cruz occurred on October 26. So that’s a month and 10 days to embark the air group, work the ship up, and either Sail to Pearl Harbour to meet up with Enterprise. Or head straight to the Solomons to reinforce Hornet.

 

[Kantai Kessen]

I think the estimate of Yorktown's damage control people was that the Coral Sea damage required three months in dry dock. The same seems likely true of the Midway bomb damage, and these could be done concurrently.

That torpedo damage, though, really did a number on her hull and engines....





Good point.

Every ATL point of departure can be worth exploring, but Yorktown would have been the more valuable of the two to keep, and it would have (butterflying torpedo damage) required less time in Bremerton.

Hell, we can even go back to Coral Sea and not have Takagi launch his dusk strike on May 7th, making more Kates available for the May 8th battle, which put down Yorktown (ITTL only 4 dropped against her). She either sinks there and then, or is so messed up she can't make Midway - though OFC Lady Lex might survive ITTL. If the explosions hadn't happened, d'you she could have fought at Midway? The crew managed to get her to 24 knots and an even keel about an hour after the attack.

 

[steamboy]

I'd say that as a 'maybe' the USN got the Yorktown ready for Midway because they threw every ship repairman and welder in pearl at her, if you was presented with two damaged ships it could be a case of, we can get one patched up and sort of ready if we put EVERYONE on the task, leaving none for the other.

 

[Kantai Kessen]

I'd say that as a 'maybe' the USN got the Yorktown ready for Midway because they threw every ship repairman and welder in pearl at her, if you was presented with two damaged ships it could be a case of, we can get one patched up and sort of ready if we put EVERYONE on the task, leaving none for the other.

But this is different, as Lex would have torpedo damage.

 

[CT7834]

But this is different, as Lex would have torpedo damage.

*Basically. Had Fletcher returned to Pearl with 2 damaged carriers. Nimitz would order the one with the least damage to be repaired first. In this case Yorktown. With Lexington also being patched up and put on standby in case reinforcements are needed. Though with Saratoga a couple of days away. Even that is doubtful.

Silver lining for Fletcher though is that with Lexington still around. King would be less inclined to sideline him.

*Edit. I should clarify as returning from the Coral Sea with two carriers.

 

[McPherson]

Technical comments to reply to the Midway scenario.

Following up on my last thought, you know...if you seriously wargamed Midway ten times (say), I could see a "median" result looking something like this:

I have war-gamed Midway more times than I can count, so I have some sample sets stored up that give me an idea of the possible outcomes.

POD 1: In the U.S. dive bomber attack of Enterprise's VB-6 and VS-6 at 10:22, Lt. Dick Best takes the entirely reasonable decision to defer to Wade McClusky's erroneous move to have both squadrons dive on IJN Kaga, rather than defy him. Kaga, of course, is utterly immolated under this overwhelming attack, but Nagumo's flagship, Akagi, is left untouched. Meanwhile, Yorktown's dive bombers have turned Soryu into an inferno at the same time. This leaves Nagumo with a body blow -- two of his prized Kido Butai carriers turned into charnel houses, including his second biggest one, Kaga -- but still with enough airpower to mount a hefty counter strike on the Americans.

Akagi had the best trained dive bomber squadron on Earth. It is likely that if Best had not got her, that Yorktown would be snuffed before the I-168 got her. Then the question is can Spruance get Akagi and Hiryu before they launch a search and destroy on him?

POD 2: Yorktown's chief damage control officer decides, with a measure of not unreasonable caution, to defer a proposal by Machinist Oscar Meyer to inject CO2 into the avgas lines to purge them after use -- a lesson prompted by the circumstances of Lexington's sinking at Coral Sea. "Let's get this new assignment out of the way first, and then we can take a close look at it." Thus, when the first attack wave from Akagi and Hiryu arrives, Yorktown's damage crews struggle badly to suppress the resulting fires. The ship is still on fire when Nagumo's second wave (composed of about two dozen Kates) arrives in the vicinity. Concluding that the burning carrier they see below them must be the one hit by the first wave, they continue on to the east, finally arriving over TF-16. Despite valiant maneuvering by Spruance's carriers, the B5N's manage to put two torpedoes into Hornet, making her a solid mission kill, but leaving her still afloat with a 10 degree list.

This is all too possible.

Admiral Fletcher is now left with a sticky decision. He has hit Nagumo hard, but for the moment, he's down to one deck (though a number of Hornet's survivors will limp into Midway's crater strewn runways), and most of Midway Atoll's squadrons have been turned into ocean debris. His orders are to observe the principle of calculated risk. He decides to withdraw a hundred miles to the east, initially taking Hornet under tow until she can get up steam at 10 knots. Yorktown, still ablaze, is reluctantly abandoned, scuttled by torpedoes fired by USS Hammann and USS Anderson. The surviving force will rendezvous with USS Saratoga on June 8. Hornet will undergo emergency repairs at Pearl Harbor, and then spend 9 weeks at Bremerton for complete restoration.

That is an optimistic outcome. I would suggest that USS Hornet is lost, but Yamamoto is denied his surface battle and breaks off the action. The battle ends more or less as a Santa Cruz outcome.

Admiral Nagumo, meanwhile, has an even stickier decision. He's lost two of his four carriers, and over half of his aircraft. Patrols have been unable to locate the American carrier force, which, if his pilots' reports are to be believed, may be down two carriers -- but how many did the Americans start with? The number of planes that had shown up the previous morning suggest a sizable task force. Does he really have the airpower to resume the contest, let alone support an attack on Midway? After desultory patroling and circling -- and another unsuccessful air attack by a couple packets of surviving Midway-based bombers -- Yamamoto orders Nagumo to withdraw. The Battle of Midway is over.

Nagumo will have lost 45-55% of his frontline strength. It is very likely that he will run for it. He honestly at the moment of immolation thought he was facing at least 4 US aircraft carriers.

The result *is* an American victory, both in strategic terms, and even tactical terms -- just not an overwhelming one. Yamamoto has once again been denied his nominal strategic objective (Midway), and even his *real* one -- the destruction of all or even most of Nimitz's fleet carriers. Worse, on the tonnage chart, he's on the worst end of the numbers, having lost two fleet carriers, and 130 of his most veteran air crews (along with over 1400 fatalities, three times what Fletcher lost), which he will have a harder time replacing than Nimitz will. Nimitz meanwhile can look forward to parrying any further Japanese thrust at summer's end with no less than four fleet carriers, with Hornet rejoining and Wasp joining PACFLT -- now an even up match for the diminished Kido Butai, and learning fast from its experiences.

I make it three aircraft carriers and WATCHTOWER still goes in.

A result like this looks more in line with the other carrier battles of 1942. Great intel and a modest advantage in numbers makes a moderate but clear U.S. victory possible, even despite some bungled strike packages on the morning of June 4 -- even, some historians might say, probable.

It could work out that Stanhope Ring turns for Midway and finds Nagumo. Hiryu joins the blowtorch trio to make it a quartet. Or Kaga eats a USS Nautilus torpedo that bangs instead of clangs and Yorktown's Dauntlesses pick on Hiryu with the squadron leader's judgment that a listing Kaga can be picked off at leisure, but Hiryu has to die right now. This is not a guarantee, but that dive bomber attack was kind of catch as catch can at 1015 hours local time. A lot of Japan's good luck was used up to save Hiryu for a brief while longer. (海の神々は、第一航空艦隊のために残業しました) (kai no kamiya wa 、 daiichi kokuu kantai no tame ni zangyo shi mashi ta, or "The sea gods worked overtime for First Air Fleet.")

About USS Yorktown

You can save her from sinking by stopping I-168's attack (as Parshall rightly insists in the interview), but . . . probably not for Santa Cruz availability.

USS Yorktown's ship's bill from Coral Sea. I cannot begin to estimate the repair time to restore her to pre-Coral Sea status, but 100 days is "generous".

About USS Lexington

I think you really have to butterfly away the torpedo attack at 1600 to keep her stay in Bremerton short enough to have any chance of being available for Santa Cruz. Saratoga's 4.5 month stay in Bremerton for its *single* torpedo hit on January 11 is instructive here...

USS Saratoga had a counter-list bulge welded to her. She could have had an angled deck slapped on her in that time. WWII American shipyards were .... :"excellent" at turnaround. Torpedo hole might take ... 30 days.

[You may have seen this already, but here is a study of Yorktown's Midway battle damage, which also includes the complete Executive Officer's report.]

See above for Coral Sea. She was a mess.

Damage or no damage. Lexington’s anti-aircraft guns and other systems were obsolete by the time of Pearl Harbor and aside from a few touch ups. She was overdue for an modernisation.

So we see her in December 1942.

I think the estimate of Yorktown's damage control people was that the Coral Sea damage required three months in dry dock. The same seems likely true of the Midway bomb damage, and these could be done concurrently.

There is a British flattop, HMS Illustrious that is being put back together after Exercise Berserk and Operation Pedestal. What was Exercise Berserk? It was Lessons Learned from the USN after the Battle Of Midway. I did not know that little tidbit of information. But HMS Illustrious spent a lot of grave dock time at Norfolk after Pedestal.

August

3rd Deployed with HM Battleship NELSON, HM Cruisers NIGERIA, KENYA and MANCHESTER for escort of support convoy WS21S on passage to Gibraltar.

8th Exercises with HM Aircraft Carriers INDOMITABLE, FURIOUS, EAGLE and ARGUS to improve multi-carrier operating techniques (Exercise BERSERK).

10th Joined 'Force Z' covering WS21S to Sicilian Narrows (Operation PEDESTAL).

12th During air attacks hit by bomb which broke up on Impact with flight deck. See PEDESTAL by P Smith, MALTA CONVOYS by R Woodman and Naval Staff History.)

20th Took passage with Home Fleet ships to Scapa Flow.

(Note: Survivors from HM Aircraft Carrier EAGLE were embarked.)

Second Source; Might want to research Exercise Berserk and see what the RN learned?

More on USS Yorktown.

That torpedo damage, though, really did a number on her hull and engines....

100 days? And what if USS Lexington and USS Yorktown had shown up with their air groups still largely intact?

Speculation... the air garrison at Midway Atoll would have Coral Sea veterans to lead the ragtag others? Not likely, but USS Hornet could be peppered with them and they "might" have made a difference, especially if they were LAW survivors.

Good point.

Every ATL point of departure can be worth exploring, but Yorktown would have been the more valuable of the two to keep, and it would have (butterflying torpedo damage) required less time in Bremerton.

USS Yorktown would get the Pearl Harbor buzzcut and Luau Sendoff. The real "what if" is what does Nimitz do with the Lexington Air Group survivors and Aubrey Fitch's BATTLE STAFF? Does he stuff them into USS Hornet? Does he stuff Fitch into USS Hornet?

There is one tiny issue. How to get the US Navy into a position where they still need to borrow HMS Victorious/ USS Robin. Without loosing (not sunk but still damaged) the pre-war carriers?

Simple... They ask for another flattop (HMS Victorious?) for WATCHTOWER and trade off USS Wasp to the Eastern Fleet.

It's a lot harder.

The U.S. was literally down to just Saratoga in the Pacific when they finally got Churchill to agree to a loaner.

Maybe not so simple.

To be fair I can't imagine Lexington taking more than a couple extra weeks than her sister to fix and modernize. Given Saratoga took 87 days from her arrival in Bremerton to when she left I think we could probably safely assume Lexington would take around 100 given the extra damage she had. Assuming she pulls into Bremerton on say June 8th that gives her 42 days to get to Santa Cruz in time.

She would be a USS Yorktown type patch job.

She might make it for the Naval Battle of Guadalcanal. Assuming Midway and Santa Cruz went the way they did. A refurbished Lexington and repaired Saratoga backing up the battered Enterprise. May cause enough headaches for the Japanese that could result in them either withdrawing earlier. Or go into a final Banzai charge.

Shudder. The USN was not ready for a Banzai charge.

That being said, your math is a bit off. 100 days starting from June 8 1942. Would mean Lexington leaving dry dock would be on September 16 1942. So that’s one day after Wasp was sunk by I-19. Santa Cruz occurred on October 26. So that’s a month and 10 days to embark the air group, work the ship up, and either Sail to Pearl Harbour to meet up with Enterprise. Or head straight to the Solomons to reinforce Hornet.

Not enough time. And since it would be HMS Victorious in the periscope crosshairs, I think the USS Wasp would be the one charging in.

Hell, we can even go back to Coral Sea and not have Takagi launch his dusk strike on May 7th, making more Kates available for the May 8th battle, which put down Yorktown (ITTL only 4 dropped against her). She either sinks there and then, or is so messed up she can't make Midway - though OFC Lady Lex might survive ITTL. If the explosions hadn't happened, d'you (think) she could have fought at Midway? The crew managed to get her to 24 knots and an even keel about an hour after the attack.

No. Still... My guess is that if Yamamoto had delayed 2-3 weeks to get Zuikaku back, both Lexie and Yorkie would have been at Bremerton with workers swarming them. It might be Sara, Ent and Hornet playing the fiddle around the 4 July 1942. Odds? Fitch, Mitscher and Spruance under Fletcher. Same clown club with TF 16, but Fletcher has Fitch to overawe and corral Mitscher and that "might" help. Could see everyone American join up over Kido Butai to wish them a "Happy Birthday". American bad luck had to break at some point. Also Lessons Learned, one can do a lot in two weeks, especially if one has an "Exercise Berserk" pre-battle, like the RN did before Pedestal.

I'd say that as a 'maybe' the USN got the Yorktown ready for Midway because they threw every ship repairman and welder in pearl at her, if you was presented with two damaged ships it could be a case of, we can get one patched up and sort of ready if we put EVERYONE on the task, leaving none for the other.

Maybe.

But this is different, as Lex would have torpedo damage.

Weld a patch and send her in.

*Basically. Had Fletcher returned to Pearl with 2 damaged carriers. Nimitz would order the one with the least damage to be repaired first. In this case Yorktown. With Lexington also being patched up and put on standby in case reinforcements are needed. Though with Saratoga a couple of days away. Even that is doubtful.

It was three days, but I agree.

Silver lining for Fletcher though is that with Lexington still around. King would be less inclined to sideline him.

As in the ATL here.

*Edit. I should clarify as returning from the Coral Sea with two carriers.

.........................

 

[CT7834]

Shudder. The USN was not ready for a Banzai charge.

I should clarify that i was referring to the IJA making an all or nothing Banzai Charge on Henderson field. But correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the IJN post-Santa Cruz only had enough aircraft to deploy Jun'yo. With Zuiho and Shokaku having their flight and hangar decks smashed, Zuikaku once again losing the majority of her air group and Hiyo suffering from mechanical infidelity. She was the only one that was still available.

 

[McPherson]

I should clarify that i was referring to the IJA making an all or nothing Banzai Charge on Henderson field. But correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the IJN post-Santa Cruz only had enough aircraft to deploy Jun'yo. With Zuiho and Shokaku having their flight and hangar decks smashed, Zuikaku once again losing the majority of her air group and Hiyo suffering from mechanical infidelity. She was the only one that was still available.

The Air Battle for the Solomons 1943

Before his death Yamamoto had implemented a new strategy, codenamed Operation I-GO. The Battles of Guadalcanal and Buna-Gona-Sanananda were heavy setbacks to his plans to expand the perimeter of th…

weaponsandwarfare.com

The Japanese had the pilots and the planes. They even had the airfields to carry out RIKKO attacks. What they did not have, was the fuel and an admiral who knew as much about air power as USAAF GEN Kenney, or the Cactus air force commanders, such as Roy Geiger.

Cactus Air Force - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Cactus Air Force - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The fortunes of both sides fluctuated as weather changed and reinforcements trickled in. Trickled reinforcement is the correct way to visualize the air campaign. American efforts were concentrated in North Africa and North Europe. Japanese efforts were focused on China. The Solomon Islands campaign may have been important to Yamamoto before he was killed, but not to Tojo or the regime in Tokyo which was dominated by the IJA.

Japanese aircraft carriers.

Your summary of the conditions of the Kidō Butai (機動部隊, "Mobile Unit/Force") is mostly accurate, however Jun'yō was undamaged. Zuikaku was sent to metro-Japan to train replacement 海軍航空翼 (kaigun kokuu tsubasa (kokubai) or carrier air groups) and ferry them around the defensive perimeter *(Says something about her that she was not considered a front line unit?), while Shōkaku and Zuiho both had their bomb damage repaired. Notice that the Americans did not have the torpedoes yet to finish off dedecked aircraft carriers?

So both sides had wiped each other's operational flattop strength out, either through mission kills or outright sinkings. I tend to regard this period of Halsey's naval command as being a red-flag to anybody paying attention to his command style, that while he was aggressive, optimistic and would not quit, all which the Guadalcanal Campaign desperately needed and which justified his OIC status, he should not have been let alone or been allowed to handle the naval combat elements of the campaign. He needed Fletcher to run the naval show.

 

[phx1138]

Or Kaga eats a USS Nautilus torpedo that bangs instead of clangs

Really not buying this one at all, & you know why.

However, it strikes me one of the other boats in the vicinity might just get in the game, especially given this:

a listing Kaga can be picked off at leisure

Now, even allowing what happened with Shokaku after Coral Sea (which was a fiasco best not recalled ), a more/less sitting duck could be successfully fired on by one of the other fifteen fleet boats (which otherwise accomplished nothing). Not every Mark XIV/Mark VI was going to fail... Getting any of the others in position might take better staff work from English's people than obtained OTL, so I may be over-optimistic.

The rest, I'll leave alone. It could go that way, or another.

I do think Spruance still pulls back, based on Murphy's (Tambor) contact report on the Mogamis, which proved misleading, if fortunate for Spruance.

 

[CT7834]

I tend to regard this period of Halsey's naval command as being a red-flag to anybody paying attention to his command style, that while he was aggressive, optimistic and would not quit, all which the Guadalcanal Campaign desperately needed and which justified his OIC status, he should not have been let alone or been allowed to handle the naval combat elements of the campaign. He needed Fletcher to run the naval show.

Nonetheless he managed to outlast the Japanese on Guadalcanal. The one real criticism I can give him during this period. Was putting seniority above experience when selecting tactical commanders in Battle. For example naming Callaghan as Commander for the November 13 Night battle. Or putting Wright in charge of the force at the Battle of Tassafaronga.