The Sudeten War: History of the World after an Alternate 1938
- Thread starter Onkel Willie
- Start date
and what did Otto give Czechoslovakia? Became one of the CZS's most fiercest supporters for its independence and sovereignty which led to the downfall of his repute in the USSR. really benes had his priorities skewed over
I personally think that things would go something like this:
The Germans get stuck into a "Praguengrad" and suffer serious losses. France and the UK issue an ultimatum to Germany and then declare war. In mid to late 1939 they push into Germany together with Poland and the remnants of the Czechoslovak army aided by the soviets and defeats the Germans. Italy will stay out of the war (expansion in the Balkans is a no-go since the Balkan Pact will be a more credible threat, France and UK have shown that they are willing to take actions against a belligerent country and that the Army and the Air Force are completely not ready for war) and in the end opportunistically invade Austria in the closing days of the war. After the war, Austria, Hungary, Italy and maybe Bulgaria could also revive the Rome Protocols as a counterbalance for soviet influence in Czechoslovakia and Romania. In the meantime, the Japanese would continue their invasion of China and don't strike south (even the Japanese understood that fighting alone against France, British Empire, USA, China, RAJ, Thailand, Holland, Australia and New Zealand would be suicide ). They could, however, find themselves at war with the Soviets (it depends on how the 1939 border incidents are handled). In the long run, I think that in the late-40s/early50s the Soviets would launch an invasion of Europe starting an OTL equivalent to WW2. There is also a possibility of a third Balkan war between the Balkan Pact and the "Roman Alliance" in the mid-40s.
The Germans get stuck into a "Praguengrad" and suffer serious losses. France and the UK issue an ultimatum to Germany and then declare war. In mid to late 1939 they push into Germany together with Poland and the remnants of the Czechoslovak army aided by the soviets and defeats the Germans. Italy will stay out of the war (expansion in the Balkans is a no-go since the Balkan Pact will be a more credible threat, France and UK have shown that they are willing to take actions against a belligerent country and that the Army and the Air Force are completely not ready for war) and in the end opportunistically invade Austria in the closing days of the war. After the war, Austria, Hungary, Italy and maybe Bulgaria could also revive the Rome Protocols as a counterbalance for soviet influence in Czechoslovakia and Romania. In the meantime, the Japanese would continue their invasion of China and don't strike south (even the Japanese understood that fighting alone against France, British Empire, USA, China, RAJ, Thailand, Holland, Australia and New Zealand would be suicide ). They could, however, find themselves at war with the Soviets (it depends on how the 1939 border incidents are handled). In the long run, I think that in the late-40s/early50s the Soviets would launch an invasion of Europe starting an OTL equivalent to WW2. There is also a possibility of a third Balkan war between the Balkan Pact and the "Roman Alliance" in the mid-40s.
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Why would the Soviets invade Europe? Everything I know about him paints Stalin as a cautious opportunist, not a gambler like Hitler.
AHE
Gone Fishin'
Yeah. Instead of bashing Eastern Europe’s head in with their big stick, I think the USSR will be focused more on exerting soft power over the region.
Most likely de facto annexing Besserabia, and maintaining permanent ‘garrisons’ in Slovakia. But otherwise, yeah, Stalin seems like a one-at-a-time personality. He wouldn’t even move against Poland IOTL until he could claim the fight was settled. ITTL, with Germany not defanged (presumably) and the other Central European countries intact (and only Czechoslovakia really well-disposed toward them), he’ll be cautious.
Indeed. It would be hard to see why Stalin would invade Europe.
Soviets Union has most of the land and natural resources they need with the possible exception of high-quality cokeable coal for making steel. High quilty coal can be imported in exchange for other natural resources.
With Germany no longer a military threat, I can't see why Stalin would need to go on a war of conquest.
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Chapter IV: The German Resistance, the Battle of Zlín and Allied Intervention, 10-15 October 1938.
And the war expands.
The German resistance movement against the Nazi regime was in agreement that it was time to topple the regime, but not in agreement on how to proceed. Given the fragmented nature of this resistance that was no surprise. Some had secretly resisted the regime from day one out of principle grounds such as opposition to its racist or anti-Christian views, the not so secret “euthanasia” program that targeted the mentally and physically disabled, or its persecution of dissidents and Jews. Others, like prominent resistance figure General Ludwig Beck, had initially supported Hitler for his repudiation of the Versailles diktat until they became disillusioned with him because his aggressive foreign policy was dangerous to Germany or because of his regime’s increasing totalitarianism. Another element was added by the Soviets attempting to organize communist resistance cells, though most were unsuccessful thanks to the effectivity of the Gestapo in uprooting them and lack of sympathy from the deeply conservative, nationalist officers at the heart of the conspiracy against the Führer.
This war against Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union was a result of Hitler overplaying his hand. At best his recklessness would end with Germany’s nose bloodied and leave the country in no position to act because of its damaged army and due to the enormous financial and economic strain the country was under. The massive remilitarization would have to be put on hold to get the government’s finances back in order and organize a less one-sided economy. That wasn’t something Hitler would do anyway, necessitating another war to add the economic riches of another small country to Germany’s own. In the worst case scenario France and Britain would join the war, leading to a two-front war that would result in utter defeat.
The fragmented nature of the German resistance made them indecisive, as reflected by their difficulty in agreeing on what form their resistance ought to take. Open resistance wasn’t possible – not so much because of the pervasive repressive apparatus of SS and Gestapo, as there were some examples of the regime backing down – but because of massive support for Hitler among the German people. Resisters would be seen as unpatriotic, especially in wartime, and so much so that even officers who detested Hitler were averse to involvement in “subversive” or “treasonous” acts. Besides that, officers struggled with their objections to Nazi crimes versus the personal oath of loyalty to Hitler they’d taken, a matter that was taken very seriously at the time.
Besides the Führer’s popularity, a second major point of discussion was whether to remove Hitler or not: some blamed the radicalism of the Nazis on Heinrich Himmler’s SS, believing Hitler could be moderated once these elements were gone. This necessitated eliminating Himmler and purging the country of the SS (not an easy task, given the SS numbered more than 200.000 men in 1938). A majority felt that a regime so dominated by one man could only be overthrown by removing that man. The next question was whether to assassinate Hitler or arrest him, another tough subject. There were devout Christians opposed to assassination based on the commandment “thou shalt not kill” and officers who felt it was dishonourable, both arguing to arrest him, which others opposed as his supporters could spring him from prison. This could lead to civil war between pro-Nazi and anti-Nazi elements.
Finally, there were differences of opinion on Germany’s political future. Liberal oppositionists wanted to restore a system of parliamentary democracy as had existed during the Weimar years. Some felt that removing Hitler and replacing him with a perceived moderate Nazi like Goering, who seemed to be a traditional “Wilhelmine” imperialist, was enough. Most officers and civil servants in the resistance, many of whom were conservatives and nationalists that had initially supported Hitler’s policies, supported either a restoration of the Hohenzollern dynasty or some kind of non-Nazi authoritarian regime.
The branch of the resistance centred on military officers – particularly around Abwehr military intelligence officer Colonel Hans Oster, protected by his boss Admiral Wilhelm Canaris – forced the matter by putting a bomb on Hitler’s plane on Monday October 10th. It didn’t explode and it wasn’t discovered either, but initially the plotters couldn’t know this, and they sighed in relief when they learned the ineffectual bomb had been removed by a fellow conspirator. The military intelligence branch of the resistance was undeterred and took charge, deciding they would simply mount a new assassination attempt. The risk of a countercoup or possibly even civil war was too great to leave Hitler alive during and after a coup d’état, which a majority agreed to when the matter was put up to a vote.
They would have to modify their plans though: the time to storm the Reich Chancellery, kill Hitler and take control of the government had come and gone as the Führer was now tightly holed up at the Berghof, where devout SS men protected him, his inner circle and his precious mistress Eva Braun. The Berghof and the Alpine chalets of the Führer’s cronies had become a sealed off secondary capital guarded by thousands of men, providing it with nigh impenetrable security. The conspirators had to be ready to act the moment Hitler left his secure bubble, which would likely only be for a short time and would therefore require improvisation.
In the meantime, Germany’s war effort continued. When, after the bombing of Prague, Czechoslovakia didn’t surrender, Hitler and his commanders had to decide whether to besiege the city or conquer it in costly urban combat as the frontline ran through the city’s outskirts. Given the valiant resistance the Czechoslovaks mounted, a house to house battle was deemed much too costly and Wehrmacht divisions surrounded the city instead. Artillery and aerial bombs would continue to pound the city while the bulk of the Wehrmacht moved eastward. Czechoslovakian forces were in full retreat, but established a new stabile frontline running from Ostrava, 30 km west of Zlín to Bratislava in mid-October.
Soviet reinforcements were underway. three Soviet infantry brigades had so far been assembled and given the critical situation they were sent to the front after Prague was surrounded. Four VVS fighter squadrons, two dive bomber squadrons equipped with Petlyakov Pe-2s and two bomber squadrons with Tu-2 medium bombers had also arrived. The build-up had been slow as everything had to come in by transport aircraft, but that changed the day after the bombing of Prague when the shocked government in Bucharest granted the Soviets permission to use supply corridors in their territory controlled by the Romanian Army. The rate at which Soviet units arrived seriously increased, but it was still difficult: there weren’t nearly enough trucks, which meant that Red Army troops marched to their destination on foot while supplies were delivered by horse drawn carts.
The Red Army was about as fast and efficient as a 1914 military during the early phase of their involvement in Czechoslovakia. Stalin tried to increase efficiency by forming a State War Committee that was granted full executive power by the politburo when it concerned decisions pertaining to the war. Its powers were so broadly and vaguely defined that this group of six effectively ruled the entire country. Stalin was its chairman and the other members were Chairman of the Council of People’s Commissars Vyacheslav Molotov, People’s Commissar for Defence Marshal Kliment Voroshilov, People’s Commissar for the Navy Mikhail Frinovsky, People’s Commissar for Heavy Industry Lazar Kaganovich, and Deputy Head of the NKVD Lavrentiy Beria (a clear sign Beria’s boss Yezhov was on his way out).
The State War Committee issued the “War Economy Order”, which prioritized the production of weapons, ammunitions, aircraft, trucks and locomotives while supporting sectors like steel industry, coal production and the oil fields and refineries went into overdrive. All nonessential production was minimized and many factories in these sectors were repurposed to produce war goods. In the short term this wouldn’t suffice, so the decision was made to pool 90% of all trucks in the Red Army to support this operation, drastically improving the logistical situation and the mobility of Soviet forces in Czechoslovakia. Soviet strength in Central Europe seriously increased.
This, however, meant that in the short term the Soviet Union could afford nothing but a strictly defensive posture on its other borders as there were no logistical means left to support even a limited offensive. Fortunately the only source of trouble was Japan, and they weren’t going to try anything soon after the Soviet success in the Battle of Lake Khasan. They weren’t aware of the USSR’s relative weakness. The truth was that the purges had left the top of the Red Army gutted, with the replacements of the tens of thousands of purged officers often being appointees selected for their political loyalty rather than their competence. The Red Army was a bulky, cumbersome force run by Stalin’s cronies, but fortunately there were a few talented officers still left: one of them was Kirill Meretskov, one of the few officers with combat experience, as he’d fought in the Spanish Civil War on the Republican side. He commanded the Soviet forces in Czechoslovakia.
After the Wehrmacht had completed its encirclement of Prague on October 12th, one day after the bombing of the city, the German advance to the east rapidly continued and they would soon face the Bolsheviks directly. The first battle in which German and Soviet forces fought was the Battle of Zlín that took place between October 13th and 15th 1938. Inspired by the classical Battle of Cannae, German commanders utilized a double envelopment tactic to cut off a Czechoslovak-Soviet salient that protruded 50 kilometres westward from Zlín and was 25 km wide at its widest point. Soviet units were among those guarding the flanks and their BT-7 tanks engaged the German Panzer IIs, performing well. The 13.9 tonne BT-7s had a 45 mm gun and armour up to 40 mm while the 8.9 tonne Panzer II had a 20 mm gun and armour up to 15 mm. The Soviet tank outperformed the German one in firepower and armour, but the Soviets experienced the effectiveness of German combined arms (called “blitzkrieg”) in which armour, infantry and air power cooperated and communicated directly. In the air, Soviet fighter pilots courageously fought and experienced the Luftwaffe’s massive superiority in training and aircraft, learning some necessary lessons the hard way. Available Soviet fighters didn’t do well against Bf-109s, apart from some lucky cases.
Though Soviet tanks were better pound for pound, German blitzkrieg tactics inflicted heavy losses and in response the Red Army would adopt Deep Operations doctrine in the future (though not rehabilitating its originator Tukhachevsky). Though tactically it was a German success as they reduced the size of the salient which led to the decision to abandon it to shorten the front, the battle was strategically inconclusive as losses were about equal on both sides and the Czechoslovaks hadn’t been decisively beaten. German commanders learnt their tanks weren’t the best. Long story short, both sides learned from this confrontation.
Germany’s situation became all the more pressing as Britain and France had decided to declare war on October 15th, after taking two painful weeks to decide on their next course of action in response to naked German aggression and Soviet intervention. Moscow had gained enormous prestige as the leader of the anti-fascist struggle, which necessitated Anglo-French action to preserve their geopolitical relevance as the leaders of the free world (a status they had by default as America had again assumed an isolationist course after the Great War). Besides that, the bombing of Prague had shocked them out of their complacency concerning Hitler’s true nature and they had already condemned the act in strong wordings. They followed up with an ultimatum demanding that Germany would agree to an armistice, evacuation of its forces to the pre-war border and a resumption of diplomatic negotiations about the status of the Sudeten Germans. Hitler was given 72 hours to reply, after which France would feel “compelled to live up to its obligation to come to the defence of Czechoslovakia, in turn activating the alliance between Britain and France.” Needless to say the Führer didn’t seriously believe they would go through with this, but on Saturday morning October 15th declarations of war were issued in London and Paris after Berlin had let the ultimatum expire the previous day.
Chapter IV: The German Resistance, the Battle of Zlín and Allied Intervention, 10-15 October 1938.
The German resistance movement against the Nazi regime was in agreement that it was time to topple the regime, but not in agreement on how to proceed. Given the fragmented nature of this resistance that was no surprise. Some had secretly resisted the regime from day one out of principle grounds such as opposition to its racist or anti-Christian views, the not so secret “euthanasia” program that targeted the mentally and physically disabled, or its persecution of dissidents and Jews. Others, like prominent resistance figure General Ludwig Beck, had initially supported Hitler for his repudiation of the Versailles diktat until they became disillusioned with him because his aggressive foreign policy was dangerous to Germany or because of his regime’s increasing totalitarianism. Another element was added by the Soviets attempting to organize communist resistance cells, though most were unsuccessful thanks to the effectivity of the Gestapo in uprooting them and lack of sympathy from the deeply conservative, nationalist officers at the heart of the conspiracy against the Führer.
This war against Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union was a result of Hitler overplaying his hand. At best his recklessness would end with Germany’s nose bloodied and leave the country in no position to act because of its damaged army and due to the enormous financial and economic strain the country was under. The massive remilitarization would have to be put on hold to get the government’s finances back in order and organize a less one-sided economy. That wasn’t something Hitler would do anyway, necessitating another war to add the economic riches of another small country to Germany’s own. In the worst case scenario France and Britain would join the war, leading to a two-front war that would result in utter defeat.
The fragmented nature of the German resistance made them indecisive, as reflected by their difficulty in agreeing on what form their resistance ought to take. Open resistance wasn’t possible – not so much because of the pervasive repressive apparatus of SS and Gestapo, as there were some examples of the regime backing down – but because of massive support for Hitler among the German people. Resisters would be seen as unpatriotic, especially in wartime, and so much so that even officers who detested Hitler were averse to involvement in “subversive” or “treasonous” acts. Besides that, officers struggled with their objections to Nazi crimes versus the personal oath of loyalty to Hitler they’d taken, a matter that was taken very seriously at the time.
Besides the Führer’s popularity, a second major point of discussion was whether to remove Hitler or not: some blamed the radicalism of the Nazis on Heinrich Himmler’s SS, believing Hitler could be moderated once these elements were gone. This necessitated eliminating Himmler and purging the country of the SS (not an easy task, given the SS numbered more than 200.000 men in 1938). A majority felt that a regime so dominated by one man could only be overthrown by removing that man. The next question was whether to assassinate Hitler or arrest him, another tough subject. There were devout Christians opposed to assassination based on the commandment “thou shalt not kill” and officers who felt it was dishonourable, both arguing to arrest him, which others opposed as his supporters could spring him from prison. This could lead to civil war between pro-Nazi and anti-Nazi elements.
Finally, there were differences of opinion on Germany’s political future. Liberal oppositionists wanted to restore a system of parliamentary democracy as had existed during the Weimar years. Some felt that removing Hitler and replacing him with a perceived moderate Nazi like Goering, who seemed to be a traditional “Wilhelmine” imperialist, was enough. Most officers and civil servants in the resistance, many of whom were conservatives and nationalists that had initially supported Hitler’s policies, supported either a restoration of the Hohenzollern dynasty or some kind of non-Nazi authoritarian regime.
The branch of the resistance centred on military officers – particularly around Abwehr military intelligence officer Colonel Hans Oster, protected by his boss Admiral Wilhelm Canaris – forced the matter by putting a bomb on Hitler’s plane on Monday October 10th. It didn’t explode and it wasn’t discovered either, but initially the plotters couldn’t know this, and they sighed in relief when they learned the ineffectual bomb had been removed by a fellow conspirator. The military intelligence branch of the resistance was undeterred and took charge, deciding they would simply mount a new assassination attempt. The risk of a countercoup or possibly even civil war was too great to leave Hitler alive during and after a coup d’état, which a majority agreed to when the matter was put up to a vote.
They would have to modify their plans though: the time to storm the Reich Chancellery, kill Hitler and take control of the government had come and gone as the Führer was now tightly holed up at the Berghof, where devout SS men protected him, his inner circle and his precious mistress Eva Braun. The Berghof and the Alpine chalets of the Führer’s cronies had become a sealed off secondary capital guarded by thousands of men, providing it with nigh impenetrable security. The conspirators had to be ready to act the moment Hitler left his secure bubble, which would likely only be for a short time and would therefore require improvisation.
In the meantime, Germany’s war effort continued. When, after the bombing of Prague, Czechoslovakia didn’t surrender, Hitler and his commanders had to decide whether to besiege the city or conquer it in costly urban combat as the frontline ran through the city’s outskirts. Given the valiant resistance the Czechoslovaks mounted, a house to house battle was deemed much too costly and Wehrmacht divisions surrounded the city instead. Artillery and aerial bombs would continue to pound the city while the bulk of the Wehrmacht moved eastward. Czechoslovakian forces were in full retreat, but established a new stabile frontline running from Ostrava, 30 km west of Zlín to Bratislava in mid-October.
Soviet reinforcements were underway. three Soviet infantry brigades had so far been assembled and given the critical situation they were sent to the front after Prague was surrounded. Four VVS fighter squadrons, two dive bomber squadrons equipped with Petlyakov Pe-2s and two bomber squadrons with Tu-2 medium bombers had also arrived. The build-up had been slow as everything had to come in by transport aircraft, but that changed the day after the bombing of Prague when the shocked government in Bucharest granted the Soviets permission to use supply corridors in their territory controlled by the Romanian Army. The rate at which Soviet units arrived seriously increased, but it was still difficult: there weren’t nearly enough trucks, which meant that Red Army troops marched to their destination on foot while supplies were delivered by horse drawn carts.
The Red Army was about as fast and efficient as a 1914 military during the early phase of their involvement in Czechoslovakia. Stalin tried to increase efficiency by forming a State War Committee that was granted full executive power by the politburo when it concerned decisions pertaining to the war. Its powers were so broadly and vaguely defined that this group of six effectively ruled the entire country. Stalin was its chairman and the other members were Chairman of the Council of People’s Commissars Vyacheslav Molotov, People’s Commissar for Defence Marshal Kliment Voroshilov, People’s Commissar for the Navy Mikhail Frinovsky, People’s Commissar for Heavy Industry Lazar Kaganovich, and Deputy Head of the NKVD Lavrentiy Beria (a clear sign Beria’s boss Yezhov was on his way out).
The State War Committee issued the “War Economy Order”, which prioritized the production of weapons, ammunitions, aircraft, trucks and locomotives while supporting sectors like steel industry, coal production and the oil fields and refineries went into overdrive. All nonessential production was minimized and many factories in these sectors were repurposed to produce war goods. In the short term this wouldn’t suffice, so the decision was made to pool 90% of all trucks in the Red Army to support this operation, drastically improving the logistical situation and the mobility of Soviet forces in Czechoslovakia. Soviet strength in Central Europe seriously increased.
This, however, meant that in the short term the Soviet Union could afford nothing but a strictly defensive posture on its other borders as there were no logistical means left to support even a limited offensive. Fortunately the only source of trouble was Japan, and they weren’t going to try anything soon after the Soviet success in the Battle of Lake Khasan. They weren’t aware of the USSR’s relative weakness. The truth was that the purges had left the top of the Red Army gutted, with the replacements of the tens of thousands of purged officers often being appointees selected for their political loyalty rather than their competence. The Red Army was a bulky, cumbersome force run by Stalin’s cronies, but fortunately there were a few talented officers still left: one of them was Kirill Meretskov, one of the few officers with combat experience, as he’d fought in the Spanish Civil War on the Republican side. He commanded the Soviet forces in Czechoslovakia.
After the Wehrmacht had completed its encirclement of Prague on October 12th, one day after the bombing of the city, the German advance to the east rapidly continued and they would soon face the Bolsheviks directly. The first battle in which German and Soviet forces fought was the Battle of Zlín that took place between October 13th and 15th 1938. Inspired by the classical Battle of Cannae, German commanders utilized a double envelopment tactic to cut off a Czechoslovak-Soviet salient that protruded 50 kilometres westward from Zlín and was 25 km wide at its widest point. Soviet units were among those guarding the flanks and their BT-7 tanks engaged the German Panzer IIs, performing well. The 13.9 tonne BT-7s had a 45 mm gun and armour up to 40 mm while the 8.9 tonne Panzer II had a 20 mm gun and armour up to 15 mm. The Soviet tank outperformed the German one in firepower and armour, but the Soviets experienced the effectiveness of German combined arms (called “blitzkrieg”) in which armour, infantry and air power cooperated and communicated directly. In the air, Soviet fighter pilots courageously fought and experienced the Luftwaffe’s massive superiority in training and aircraft, learning some necessary lessons the hard way. Available Soviet fighters didn’t do well against Bf-109s, apart from some lucky cases.
Though Soviet tanks were better pound for pound, German blitzkrieg tactics inflicted heavy losses and in response the Red Army would adopt Deep Operations doctrine in the future (though not rehabilitating its originator Tukhachevsky). Though tactically it was a German success as they reduced the size of the salient which led to the decision to abandon it to shorten the front, the battle was strategically inconclusive as losses were about equal on both sides and the Czechoslovaks hadn’t been decisively beaten. German commanders learnt their tanks weren’t the best. Long story short, both sides learned from this confrontation.
Germany’s situation became all the more pressing as Britain and France had decided to declare war on October 15th, after taking two painful weeks to decide on their next course of action in response to naked German aggression and Soviet intervention. Moscow had gained enormous prestige as the leader of the anti-fascist struggle, which necessitated Anglo-French action to preserve their geopolitical relevance as the leaders of the free world (a status they had by default as America had again assumed an isolationist course after the Great War). Besides that, the bombing of Prague had shocked them out of their complacency concerning Hitler’s true nature and they had already condemned the act in strong wordings. They followed up with an ultimatum demanding that Germany would agree to an armistice, evacuation of its forces to the pre-war border and a resumption of diplomatic negotiations about the status of the Sudeten Germans. Hitler was given 72 hours to reply, after which France would feel “compelled to live up to its obligation to come to the defence of Czechoslovakia, in turn activating the alliance between Britain and France.” Needless to say the Führer didn’t seriously believe they would go through with this, but on Saturday morning October 15th declarations of war were issued in London and Paris after Berlin had let the ultimatum expire the previous day.
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Why would he not take this seriously? Germany's situation was so dire that as megalomaniacal as he is even he wasn't so far gone to not recognize it.
Hitler's government will not survive the week.
Nice work
map of Europe 1938
omniatlas.com
map of Europe 1938
Historical Atlas of Europe (23 August 1939): Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact
In August 1939 Germany surprised the world by signing the Molotov–Ribbentrop_Pact with the Soviet Union. Formally, this was a non-aggression pact between two ideological enemies. However a secret clause agreed to the division of eastern Europe, in particular Poland.
Bookmark1995
Banned
Because he was a ridiculously arrogant maniac who was high on his own supply. He didn't even send enough coats to his forces when they invaded icy cold Russia.
But yeah.
I think one of the reasons why the Munich Agreement was such a trainwreck was because it gave Adolf just enough resources to being able to wage the war he did.
But TTL, Adolf has less to work with, and a relatively united Czechoslovakia to beat him back.
IMAO the Spanish civil war will play out pretty much the same, maybe lasting a little bit longer: after the Aragon Offensive, the Republicans had pretty much already lost.
France could start shipping weapons to Catalonia and don't recognize the Nationalist as the legitimate government for a bit longer but that wouldn't change things that much. Almost all of the major weapon suppliers of the Republicans are now at war and priority number one is defeating Germany. The Nationalists would also lose the Condor Legion but it could easily be replaced by more Italian and Portuguese support (like in OTL two months later when the Legion started withdrawing from Spain). Maybe the Nationalists attack Catalonia on December 10th (like they had originally planned) instead of the 23rd? Depending on how things play out between the parties involved in the Republican government Casado's coup could also happen earlier.
France could start shipping weapons to Catalonia and don't recognize the Nationalist as the legitimate government for a bit longer but that wouldn't change things that much. Almost all of the major weapon suppliers of the Republicans are now at war and priority number one is defeating Germany. The Nationalists would also lose the Condor Legion but it could easily be replaced by more Italian and Portuguese support (like in OTL two months later when the Legion started withdrawing from Spain). Maybe the Nationalists attack Catalonia on December 10th (like they had originally planned) instead of the 23rd? Depending on how things play out between the parties involved in the Republican government Casado's coup could also happen earlier.
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I think the SCW will end pretty much on schedule. The Republicans are without support (literally the largest supporter they have left if Mexico, and its more diplomatic than anything else), while the Nationalists can still count on support from Italy and to a much lesser extent, Portugal. But by the fall of 1938, the Republicans have lost the war (though it wouldn't be a fait accompli until April the following year). Yeah this is a far cry from what Turtledove did with "The War that Came Early" chronologically, but unless Franco is willing to side with Hitler, I see Spain's future to be not too heavily different to OTL's, and let's be real here, if he didn't join the Axis after IOTL's Spanish Civil War, he's not joining Hitler after TTL's.
Likewise, I'd say the same with Mussolini, who might be spared from Hitler's insanity here by virtue of probably looking on the writing on the wall and wanting nothing to do with that.
Hungary invaded too? Horthy's government (and their pretensions of monarchy) won't survive either...
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Hmm, this would probably fall down to the 2. and 4. army, plus the parts of the 1. army that were not trapped in Prague. Actually, considering the lack of Hungarian involvement, the 3. army can redeploy from Slovakia. Thats most of the Czechoslovak forces, plus the Red army reinforcements concentrated in a well defensible line, while big chunk of the German forces, including probably their best units under Reichenaus 10. army have to fight in Prague.
The extremely funny part is, that the Soviet officers will have to cooperate with their Czechoslovak counterparts, they will mostly have to deal with the men that fought them in Siberia. Actually, commander of the 1. army, general Vojcechovsky was a White russian officer who joined the legion. Though he might be in Prague, so that one is uncertain.
Congratulations France. You let the bolsheviks get into central Europe, while not even managing to preserve your own precious peace. Well at least you're trying to do something, better then OTL.
Quite good all in all.
No, it's actually inspired by "The War that Came Early" by Harry Turtledove. Though, I'm not surprised that some would think Hearts of Iron.