The Sudeten War: History of the World after an Alternate 1938

To me the important question is; will Italy flip on Stalin if Joe gets too entrapped? Will Japan see an opportunity for revenge? I see both as more likely than American intervention.

The A Bomb, in my opinion, is something that is inevitable. I could see Stalin getting couped finally after an A bomb or two is dropped, I hope not any more than three is needed. Yet because of the size of the Soviet Union I could sadly see 4-6 being dropped prior to capitulation.
 
In 1950 both Germany and the UK would have had atomic bombs while the USSR would have none!

Britain possibility but not necessarility. Not sure if France and UK would allow Germany possess nukes., And even if they allow that, I doubt that Germany has much of chances get that by 1950. Probably even Americans have made that later than in OTL.
 
Britain possibility but not necessarility. Not sure if France and UK would allow Germany possess nukes., And even if they allow that, I doubt that Germany has much of chances get that by 1950. Probably even Americans have made that later than in OTL.
I think the US would have them and the Soviets wouldn’t have made such a move in Europe until they had them too. The US probably would have sold a few to the British as a deterrent.
 
I think the US would have them and the Soviets wouldn’t have made such a move in Europe until they had them too. The US probably would have sold a few to the British as a deterrent.
If Nuclear Weapons had been developed beyond the theoretical stage it is likely the author mentioned them. Likely all nations have secret nuclear programs of differing levels of progress but no one has a nuclear weapon yet. The rush hasnt quite happened OTL due to the lack of a protracted WWII

also, while Stalin OTL was generally rational, this Stalin has his mind melting after the mentioned health problems, and his generals tried delaying a war as much as possible which shows the irrationality of the move to begin with.
 
Knowing how things usually develop sans war and sans funding, you're probably looking at a twenty-year development cycle instead of seven.

Besides, what's the point of a WW2 in the Fifties if it's going to look just like WW3?
 
Chapter XVIII: The Fall of Warsaw and Assault on the Ostwall, July-August 1953.
To answer some of the questions above: nuclear weapons will be seen later in the war as they've not been developed yet as there was no urgent reason to do so, same for other technologies that got accelerated by WW2. As to Italy, Mussolini is of course waiting for the right moment to jump in. But right now it's time for Poland to fall.




Chapter XVIII: The Fall of Warsaw and Assault on the Ostwall, July-August 1953.

A rescue attempt to Warsaw was about to be mounted. Germany quickly and efficiently transitioned from a partial to a full mobilization and the Imperial German Army’s frontline strength in Poland increased to 100 divisions, or approximately 1.5 million men, in less than four weeks’ time. The hastily planned counteroffensive to relieve the besieged city of Warsaw, codenamed Operation Summer Solstice, involved 250.000 German troops and another 100.000 Polish forces as well as 1.500 tanks and 8.000 artillery guns. In the hopes of making this a success after weeks of fighting retreat at best, or running at worst, the Germans used the most advanced weapons and tactics they had to offset their enemy’s massive numerical superiority.

Part of Germany’s tank divisions now used the older Panzer IVs and others the newer Panzer V “Panther”. After most of the design flaws had been dealt with by early ’44, the Panther entered mass production that year. It was decidedly superior to the T-34 and started replacing the Panzer IV, though they were kept in reserve and now used again. The Panther combined the latest high-velocity 75 mm gun that possessed great punching power with slanted armour that was inspired by the T-34 but significantly thicker, whilst having a top speed roughly equal to the much lighter Soviet tank: the nearly 45 tonne main German tank and the 26.5 tonne Soviet workhorse could both reach nearly 55 km/h. Elite tank divisions solely equipped with the Panther were deployed for Operation Summer Solstice (the latest generation Panzer IV had the same high-velocity gun, but thinner and non-slanted armour, weighing 25 tonnes).

The Imperial German Air Force also chipped in whilst the tanks rushed into the enemy. To achieve local air superiority, the Germans deployed an existing aircraft design in a completely new role: the Junkers Ju 252 had originally been designed as a transport aircraft and airliner. As radar technology was successfully miniaturized, the designers had installed it on a Ju 252 years prior and had successfully demonstrated the very first “airborne early warning aircraft” in existence. The officers witnessing the demonstration were intrigued and adopted this novel type of aircraft. Using radio, these AEW aircraft could warn their own side of incoming Soviet aircraft long before they could be spotted either visually or by ground based radar. They vectored a revolutionary type of fighter aircraft to intercept Soviet fighter and bomber formations: the very first operational jetfighter, the Heinkel He 280, appeared on the battlefield. After years of terribly slow development, because piston-engine designed seemed to suffice, the first squadrons with He 280 jets entered service months before the war to phase out the turboprop fighters. With a top speed of 900 km/h, sometimes reaching the speed of sound in dives, they ran circles around Soviet Yak-3 turboprop fighter planes.

The German-Polish relief force concentrated to the southwest of the city and on July 6th attacked what reconnaissance flights had identified as a weak spot in the Soviet frontline. A brief but intense artillery bombardment poked some holes and an armoured spearhead of German Panthers opened up a corridor to the city. German fighter squadrons, including the new jetfighter squadrons, maintained air superiority over the corridor by intercepting Soviet formations based on the intel provided by the Ju 252 AEW aircraft. Though the operation was intended to extract the besieged defenders, some supplies were sent into the city too.

After hours of stubborn refusal, wasting precious time, the Poles finally agreed to completely evacuate Warsaw through the corridor toward Lodz. In the 48 hours that the corridor was open, 50.000 Polish troops fought their way out of the city. The remaining 100.000 Polish defenders stuck inside after the breach was undone by the Red Army fought valiantly. An airlift briefly managed to supply them with ammunitions, fuel and food for a few more days through safe aerial corridors created with AEW aircraft, but the airborne aid was cut off as the front moved further west and Poland’s allies were confronted by more pressing concerns. A quarter of a million artillery shells and rockets combined with aerial bombardment annihilated the city, forcing the remaining garrison and civilians underground. They re-emerged when the Red Army advanced into the city, engaging the defenders in intense urban combat over the ruins. The last pockets of resistance in Warsaw surrendered more than three weeks later on July 25th. Warsaw had fallen and Stalin planned for Germany to follow.

German Chief of Staff Field Marshal Erich von Manstein had decided that confronting the numerically superior Soviets out in the open on completely flat terrain between the Vistula and Oder rivers would be foolish as it played into the enemy’s strength. The Germans would open themselves up to enormous pincer moves and subsequent cauldron battles, which were likely to result in major defeats with severe losses even if German forces broke their encirclement and managed to withdraw. Polish generals were displeased when Manstein told them that for these reasons the Imperial German Army would tactically retreat to the so-called Fortified Front Oder-Warthe-Bogen or Ostwall (East Wall). German forces withdrew from Polish soil to this defensive line they had built in the years before the war. The Poles were free to go down in a blaze of glory, but the Germans wouldn’t join them in that fate. Polish forces regrouped on German soil, hoping to liberate their fatherland sooner rather than later. It would be much, much later.

German commanders had confidence in the Ostwall as this was one of the most technologically advanced systems of fortifications and in size exceeded the Maginot Line. The Germans had had over fifteen years to complete it, so this was no surprise. It had a depth of up to 25 kilometres and consisted of over 6.000 pillboxes, 400 casemates, 90 shelters, 20 observatories, 150 larger forts with heavy artillery, one hundred retractable turrets with 75 mm high-velocity guns, eighty machine gun turrets with 13 mm heavy MG 131 machine guns, barbed wire fields, minefields, anti-tank ditches, Czech hedgehog anti-tank obstacles and lines of so called “dragon’s teeth” armoured concrete anti-tank obstacles. The most powerful defences were six triple turrets with 28 cm (11 inch) battleship guns mounted on land, each of which had a maximum range of forty kilometres. The line was largely interconnected with tunnels and this underground tunnel system contained railway stations, workshops, engine rooms, power stations, ammunition storages, barracks, hospitals, and even some bars and cinemas for the garrisons to use during their off-time. This was the world’s largest and most modern contiguous line of fortifications and it would soon face the world’s most massive army. An unstoppable force was about to hit an immovable object.

The Red Army began its assault on the Ostwall, after a pause of no more than 72 hours, on Saturday July 11th 1953. After reservists and new recruits replenished the losses incurred thus far, the Red Army attacked with 6 million men and thousands of tanks, artillery guns and aircraft. The two fronts still held in reserve constituting 2.5 million men, the 3rd and 4th Ukrainian Fronts, were released and went on trains to the Oder frontline. The line was manned by only 2 million German soldiers, but they were well protected in their heavily armed fortifications made from thick armoured concrete. Moreover, the Ostwall was well designed with openings that appeared as weak spots, but which in reality were traps designed to lure attackers into kill zones. The line functioned as its designers had intended, inflicting between two to three times more losses on the attackers than the defenders incurred in the Red Army’s initial frontal attacks.

The Soviets brought siege guns to bear. The line’s advanced design meant its garrison was able to hold off a significantly larger attacking force, but not indefinitely and not if sufficient firepower was arrayed against it. More than two thousand B-4 203 mm howitzers, nicknamed “Stalin’s sledgehammers”, were deployed to deal with the smaller blockhouses and casemates. The less numerous Br-5 280 mm mortar was used in a similar role. The Czech arms manufacturer Skoda had designed the Br-17 210 mm heavy siege gun and the Br-18 305 mm superheavy siege howitzer, which were both used against the larger fortresses. Five 38 cm (15 inch) railway guns were also deployed, using guns originally intended for the cancelled Kronshtadt-class battlecruisers. Incessant attacks with Katyusha rocket launchers were used to psychologically drain the German defenders, relying on the constant howling sound.

Germany’s Anglo-French allies had mobilized and it came as a relief that their forces were coming into play in this crisis situation. The alternative to breaking the Ostwall was to circumvent it via Czechoslovakia, but the OKH had predicted that move and had left fifteen divisions in place to deal with a Czechoslovak move. Forty fresh French divisions replaced these as they were redeployed to the Ostwall and the French stymied an actual Czechoslovak offensive after it had advanced a few kilometres across the border. The French then pushed them back across it and established some toeholds in the Sudetenland, but were stopped by the powerful Czechoslovak border defences thanks to Soviet backup.

In the meantime, General Bernard Montgomery flew to Hamburg ahead of the first elements of the British Expeditionary Force. Montgomery had fought in the Great War, in the Irish War of Independence, and then served in India. In 1938 he organized an amphibious combined operations landing exercise that impressed Sir Archibald Wavell, the new Commander-in-Chief of Southern Command, earning him a promotion to Major General. He would have fought in the Sudeten War commanding the 8th Infantry Division, but that war had ended before any British forces could reach the front and instead he commanded his division during the suppression of the 1936-’39 Arab Revolt in Palestine. He continued to rise through the ranks under Wavell’s tutelage, briefly serving in India again in 1946-’47 to control the unrest there before the Government of India Act 1947 was passed, receiving a promotion to Lieutenant General. He was subsequently earmarked to command a British corps sized force to land at Gallipoli to aid the Turks if the Soviets tried to seize the Bosporus and the Dardanelles by force during the Turkish Straits Crisis. He was made a full General two years later.

The units of the British Expeditionary Force weren’t sent to the front piecemeal as they arrived despite German requests for them, but were concentrated until they’d grown into a credible force that could independently defend a sector on the front. Montgomery didn’t want British units taking orders from German generals even though Britain and Germany were on the same side now. On June 16th, two days after Great Britain’s declaration of war, the first elements of the BEF embarked and they arrived in Hamburg two days later. Four weeks later, around July 14th, I Corps, II Corps and a number of independent units had been deployed, for a total of about fifteen divisions. Together they constituted a force of roughly 225.000 men and 30.000 vehicles, supplied with 125.000 tonnes of ammunitions, fuel and food stocks.

The first breaches in the Ostwall were punched by Soviet heavy artillery and Il-10 bombers carrying armour piercing bombs modified from 38 cm (15 inch) shells. The gaps were attacked by tanks divisions supported by infantry, which could now outflank German defenders and attack them in the rear and thusly gain control of larger parts of the Ostwall. The Germans counterattacked with their own tanks stationed behind the Ostwall precisely to smother a Soviet breakthrough of their fortress line. Ju 252 airborne early warning aircraft were used to vector in enough fighters to achieve local air superiority, but after a while that tactic didn’t work anymore. The Soviets deployed so many aircraft that they overwhelmed the German defenders, despite their effective use of their new and superior jetfighter. The Red Army breached the line at more and more places despite the Germans’ best efforts to stop them, even when the Soviets got in range of the 28 cm turrets, due to numerical superiority. The turrets were eventually either bombed into submission or sabotaged as their German garrisons abandoned them. After two weeks of combat, the line was considered compromised and the Germans withdrew across the Oder River, blowing up the bridges behind them. The collapse of the Ostwall left many Germans living in Posen and Silesia under Soviet occupation. The German army had suffered severe losses as the Soviets attempted to stop their withdrawal with offensives all over the front. Many Germans became POWs, though they later learnt they were better off fighting their way to safety or die trying due to the poor Soviet treatment of prisoners.

The next phase would see the invasion of the German heartland and the capture of Berlin, which Stalin believed would demoralize Germany to the point that it’d seek terms. The opening moves showed it wouldn’t be easy for the Red Army, hinting that the German government wasn’t about to roll over. The German commander chosen by Manstein to lead the Ostwall now also commanded the new defensive line along the Oder and Neisse rivers. Walther Model, who had retired in 1951, had been recalled despite his earlier Nazi leanings and proved an excellent defensive tactician with a tenacious fighting style. He intended to make things as difficult as possible for his Soviet opponents.

The prelude to the Fall of Berlin was the Oder-Neisse Offensive. Most of the fighting took place at the Seelow Heights, the last high point before completely flat terrain all the way to Berlin. Model had anticipated the Soviet attack and had covered the Seelow Heights with trenches, bunkers, anti-tank obstacles and landmines. He didn’t just employ fortifications, but also deception as he had his men build dummy positions to distract enemy artillery and airpower or lure enemy attackers into ambushes in the marshy terrain leading up to the Seelow Heights. The Soviets concentrated the 1st through 3rd Byelorussian Fronts, totalling more than 3.5 million men, for the attack while Model had the Sixth Army and Fourth Panzer Army at his disposal. It took the Red Army eleven days to take the Seelow Heights despite a numerical superiority of more than 3:1. By that time, Soviet forces had crossed the Neisse to the south while crossing the Oder to the north near Stettin as well. Three major bridgeheads on the Oder-Neisse Line had been established by the end of the Battle of Seelow Heights on August 5th. The Soviets had suffered serious losses, but the Germans had suffered terrible losses and too and had much smaller manpower reserves to replace them with.

The Battle for Berlin began 24 hours later and armies of a size never seen before would clash. The Red Army tried to stop the Germans and their allies from regrouping, whilst they themselves were reinforced by the arrival of the 3rd and 4th Ukrainian Fronts released from reserve. The arrival of these two fronts and multiple corps sized independent units boosted Soviet frontline strength in Europe to 9 million. Whilst the Imperial German Army had a total strength of 8 million men, this wasn’t its frontline strength as this number included all kinds of administrative and supporting personnel as well as lower quality reserve units for patrol and sentry duty. Frontline strength was closer to 6 million. Besides that, Germany also had to maintain a sizeable standing force in Austria just in case Soviet and Czechoslovak forces would launch an offensive to seize Vienna and control of the Danube along with it. The Germans tried to eliminate every non-essential function to free up as many soldiers as possible for frontline duties.

The British and particularly the French tried to provide their ally with sufficient reinforcements. The BEF, now numbering twenty-five divisions, concentrated at Neubrandenburg and bolstered the German left flank, fiercely resisting the vanguard of the 1st Byelorussian Front directly facing it. The determination and professionality of the BEF north of Berlin was outmatched by the impressive size and speed of the French deployment to the south (Charles de Gaulle had overseen the mechanization of the French Army and its change in doctrine over the past few years, enabling its rapid mobilization). French strength in Germany had doubled to eighty divisions, roughly 1.2 million men, by the time the Battle of Berlin began. It was going to be the largest battle the world had ever seen.
 
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Map Europe August 1953.png

Map of Europe on August 1953, at the beggining of the Battle of Berlin.
 
I'm having this odd feeling that Poland will once again have to endure border corrections as recompense for the German war effort to liberate it from the Soviet boot.
 
This is where Finland gets revenge and does a surprise attack on Leningrad.

In all honesty, if the Allies can stop Russia's initial advance and continue bleeding them at the rate they are, then the allies have got it in the bag.
 
Well looks like Berlin is going to become TTL Stalingrad.

And human costs this probably will be much worse than OTL Battle of Berlin. The city probably end to be as ruined as in OTL.

And if Red Army loses this battle (quiet likely) Stalin is not going to be happy. Not all.
 
And human costs this probably will be much worse than OTL Battle of Berlin. The city probably end to be as ruined as in OTL.

And if Red Army loses this battle (quiet likely) Stalin is not going to be happy. Not all.
I bet Stalin is going to purge Zhukov and other high rank military officials if Soviet lose, which would made succession issue after his death even worse.
 
I bet Stalin is going to purge Zhukov and other high rank military officials if Soviet lose, which would made succession issue after his death even worse.

Definitely Zhukov and many other will get bullet to their head if RA loses Battle of Berlin.
 
Nice update..

How ever some questions...
It seems that you forget the very likely development in various technologies which were ongoing during the 1930ties and early 1940ties but were halted due to the devastation of WW2. Now the 1940ties were a time of peace for large part of the World. This time of calm must have given the opportunity to the development of many things which were stalled due to OTL war. Like some items I mention below.

- Why the ME 262 and not the Heinkel He280 since Heinkel was the aircraft manufacturer who pioneered the jet engine fighter and Messerschmitt had, as I understood, the favor of the Nazi regime, which in this TL is replaced.
- I can not imagine that a Focke Wulf FW 190 and it related developments in 1953 be up to the task of Soviet fighters?
- Germany invested heavily in rocket technology, even before the rise of the Nazi's, since the treaty of Versailles banned large guns, where is this technology?
- Germans bomber development stopped with an early 1930ties project like the Dornier Do 19?
This sound very unrealistic,. The Luftwaffe is mounting state of the art technology in a bomber prototype of 20 years old while the Lufthansa if flying in 1953 with hyper modern airliners like ; Junker Ju 252, Junkers 90 and Focke Wulf Fw 206 and who knows jet powered airliners.

All above mentioned aircraft were flying or developed prior to OTL ww2 so very plausible they were used in a time were the 40ties were a time of peace.

How about helicopters? There must be some development out of the Focke Wulf 61 or any equivalent from the USA, UK, France or any other country.

Electronics? In OTL Zimmermann? developed one of the first programmable computers the Z1 and Z2, which due to the war was lost in the mist of history. Since there is no WW2, electronic firms as Siemens & Halske and AEG and others out side of Germany like Philips must continue with this in the peaceful decade of the 40ties.
How about television coverage of the conflict. Television first broadcast was in 1936 during the Olympics in Germany. Philips was experimenting with it in 1938, so by 1953 a television set should be a relative common good in European households by 1953.

And now I just mentioned the Germans, what about the French and British.
As I understand the British they were far in developing bombers in the thirties, this would not be excelerated during the 40ties as in OTL but by 1953 you can imagine there must be something flying as a Wellington or some sort of Lancaster or even better. Since Imperial Airway sis flying with advanced airliners like Lufthansa. As example Imperial Airways flew in 1938 already with planes like the DH.91 Albatross so it will be very likely that there is something like OTL De Haviland Comet in 1953.
And how about the USA like Douglas DC4 and DC5 not mentioning the advances aircraft of Boeing and other USA aircraft manufacturers.

As for the French, they were fore runners in heavy and fast tank designs, there were quite some interesting tank designs and developments when OTL ww2 broke out. In TL by 1953 they must have something moving which is advanced or better as a T34. I do not know much of French aviation but there must be interesting developments in this 1940ties.
Since this Soviet attack essentially is a threat to the very existence of Europe, not jus a large scale conflict between the Great powers of Europe, what about the small nations of Europe? What is the reaction of Belgium, The Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden? The last two are near or at the front line.

And as last, how is Soviet industry cooping with the drain of manpower, needed for the gigantic armies? Who is producing the ammunition, who is harvesting the food and how is the industry and logistics dealing with the massive attrition of goods, food and vehicles? In OTL the Soviets could only win due to the massive support of goods from the Western allies, and this is not only because the Western part of the Soviet Union was occupied, since most industry was already moved out of reach of the Germans.
 
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