The post-WWII peace settlement in a no-Fall-of-France scenario?

[CaliGuy]

What would the post-World War II peace settlement look like in a no-Fall-of-France scenario?

Specifically, I would like separate answers for these two scenarios:

1. A TL where the Schwarze Kapelle successfully overthrow the Nazis during WWII (after the Nazis' failure to conquer France).
2. A TL where the Schwarze Kapelle try overthrowing the Nazis but fail (as in 1944 in our TL).

Also, I figure that I myself should try giving my own answers for each of these two scenarios; thus, here goes:

1. In this TL, it depends on how badly Britain and France want to end the war. If they want to end the war very badly, I could see them settling for a German withdrawal to Germany's January 1939 borders. Poland would have its independence restored and acquire Danzig and get all of its western (but not eastern, obviously) territories restored while Czechia (without the Sudetenland, which will remain a part of Germany) would become a separate, independent state (which would have the choice of either remaining independent or reuniting with (rump) Slovakia).

If Britain and France don't have an urgent desire to end the war, though, then they would probably demand a German withdrawal to Germany's 1937 (or perhaps even 1934, if France wants the Saarland for itself) borders as well as a German cession of southern East Prussia, German Upper Silesia, and perhaps even eastern Pomerania to Poland. As for whether or not Poland, Czechoslovakia, and the eastern part of Germany become Communist in this TL, that would depend on whether or not the Schwarze Kapelle are willing to agree to Anglo-French peace terms before the Soviet Union enters World War II on the Anglo-French side.

2. In this scenario, Britain's and France's demands would probably be the same as in the paragraph above. However, in this TL, it is virtually a guarantee that the Soviet Union enters the war on the Anglo-French side and thus spreads Communist rule to Poland, Czechoslovakia, and eastern Germany. In this TL, Germany will probably be partitioned for decades, as in our TL. However, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Yugoslavia would be sufficiently lucky to avoid Communist rule in this TL.

Anyway, any thoughts on these scenarios of mine? Also, any thoughts on what I wrote here?

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Personally the Wallies I think would be very tired of the Germans going to war against them my best guess would be in an extreme situation Germany losing everything west of the Rhine East Prussia to Poland and parts of land to Czechoslovakia

 

[CaliGuy]

Personally the Wallies I think would be very tired of the Germans going to war against them my best guess would be in an extreme situation Germany losing everything west of the Rhine East Prussia to Poland and parts of land to Czechoslovakia

Stripping Germany of the Rhineland would be a pain in the ass for the British and French to enforce, though. After all, this would involve separating millions of ethnic Germans from the Reich even though they want to stay united.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

ethnic cleansing the Brits and French have just fought 2 major wars against Germany in 20 years Germany will stay down this time hopefully

 

[Asp]

My guess is that the WAllies will go as far and hard as they can, which probably means Berlin. The fact that the Nazis tore up every treaty they ever signed and went to war for the second time in 20 years will mean that there is effectively no guarantee they can make that anyone could trust (this is pretty much the problem with any TL involving a peace settlement, the Nazis were flat-out too aggressive to be trusted, and after they invaded the USSR every single major player on Earth officially knew it). They won't want to leave Hitler in power.

 

[CaliGuy]

My guess is that the WAllies will go as far and hard as they can, which probably means Berlin. The fact that the Nazis tore up every treaty they ever signed and went to war for the second time in 20 years will mean that there is effectively no guarantee they can make that anyone could trust (this is pretty much the problem with any TL involving a peace settlement, the Nazis were flat-out too aggressive to be trusted, and after they invaded the USSR every single major player on Earth officially knew it). They won't want to leave Hitler in power.

What if the Schwarze Kapelle succeed in overthrowing Hitler and the Nazis in this TL?

 

[CaliGuy]

ethnic cleansing the Brits and French have just fought 2 major wars against Germany in 20 years Germany will stay down this time hopefully

If Britain and France are OK with looking extremely bad in the eyes of the international community, then maybe, just maybe this could occur.

However, where exactly are the new settlers for the Rhineland going to come from? After all, France's population was already stagnating during this time.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

If Britain and France are OK with looking extremely bad in the eyes of the international community, then maybe, just maybe this could occur.

However, where exactly are the new settlers for the Rhineland going to come from? After all, France's population was already stagnating during this time.

? why would the international community care? The Germans have torn up every treaty they signed and launched a major war of aggression devastating Europe for the 2nd time in a half century causing billions of dollar in economic damage? Again this is the extreme version though France will probably annex the Saar expel the German population there Poland gets East Prussia and Danzig, possibly territorial adjustments in favor of the Low countries and reparations once again and this time I'm pretty sure the French and British will be dead set about making sure the Germans pay plus losing all their gains from Austria and the Sudetenland

 

[thorr97]

No fall of France?

The Wallies would drive to Berlin and raze the place to ground to be sure they'd put a stake into Germany's heart deep enough. World War One would then be remembered as the Entente having been too easy on the Germans.

The post-war WWII reparations would be some kinda horrific.

And I'd not be surprised to see the Wallies going for some sort of "ethnic consolidation" which moved any Germanic peoples out of neighboring countries in order to ensure there'd be no such excuses in the future. Yeah, pity about the Rhineland being declared a German exclusion zone but at least some Germans with sufficient technical skills could be allowed to be employed there as guest workers - and all having to be back on the other side of the New Germany border by shift's end...

 

[Mr Director]

Well, I for one, can't really see things being much harsher in Germany than they were irl post WW2, certainly. Odds are, it would be very much lighter. In a no fall of France scenario, the Germans have presumably inflicted much less pain in Europe than they did irl, and, more importantly, France and Britain still gotta worry about the fully intact Soviet Union. Drastically weakening the only major state between France and the Russians by initiating ethnic cleansing programs within German territory and stripping away vital territory like the Rhineland seems like a bad idea, from that standpoint alone. More likely, the WAllies would want to put a friendly, anti-communist government in place that won't be so weak to become a Soviet client.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Well, I for one, can't really see things being much harsher in Germany than they were irl post WW2, certainly. Odds are, it would be very much lighter. In a no fall of France scenario, the Germans have presumably inflicted much less pain in Europe than they did irl, and, more importantly, France and Britain still gotta worry about the fully intact Soviet Union. Drastically weakening the only major state between France and the Russians by initiating ethnic cleansing programs within German territory and stripping away vital territory like the Rhineland seems like a bad idea, from that standpoint alone. More likely, the WAllies would want to put a friendly, anti-communist government in place that won't be so weak to become a Soviet client.

Yeah don't think so the Wallies have just fought the Germans 2 twice in 20 years the sentiment of being lenient in Paris and London probably doesn't exist Germany will be made to pay the Saar is almost certain to go to France east Prussia might go to Poland Danzig is Polish for sure you might see the division of Germany into separate states Poland will serve the role of a buffer against the Reds with significant Western support.

 

[CaliGuy]

Well, I for one, can't really see things being much harsher in Germany than they were irl post WW2, certainly. Odds are, it would be very much lighter. In a no fall of France scenario, the Germans have presumably inflicted much less pain in Europe than they did irl, and, more importantly, France and Britain still gotta worry about the fully intact Soviet Union. Drastically weakening the only major state between France and the Russians by initiating ethnic cleansing programs within German territory and stripping away vital territory like the Rhineland seems like a bad idea, from that standpoint alone. More likely, the WAllies would want to put a friendly, anti-communist government in place that won't be so weak to become a Soviet client.

Agreed with this. Indeed, Britain and France are probably going to want a Germany which is strongly under their influence yet at the same time strong enough to confront the Soviets (with Anglo-French assistance, of course).

That said, though, what exactly do you think that the final peace treaty is going to look like in this TL?

 

[CaliGuy]

? why would the international community care? The Germans have torn up every treaty they signed and launched a major war of aggression devastating Europe for the 2nd time in a half century causing billions of dollar in economic damage? Again this is the extreme version though France will probably annex the Saar expel the German population there Poland gets East Prussia and Danzig, possibly territorial adjustments in favor of the Low countries and reparations once again and this time I'm pretty sure the French and British will be dead set about making sure the Germans pay plus losing all their gains from Austria and the Sudetenland

No fall of France?

The Wallies would drive to Berlin and raze the place to ground to be sure they'd put a stake into Germany's heart deep enough. World War One would then be remembered as the Entente having been too easy on the Germans.

The post-war WWII reparations would be some kinda horrific.

And I'd not be surprised to see the Wallies going for some sort of "ethnic consolidation" which moved any Germanic peoples out of neighboring countries in order to ensure there'd be no such excuses in the future. Yeah, pity about the Rhineland being declared a German exclusion zone but at least some Germans with sufficient technical skills could be allowed to be employed there as guest workers - and all having to be back on the other side of the New Germany border by shift's end...

For what it's worth, Britain and France didn't insist on unconditional surrender from Germany in 1939-1940. Indeed, if they wanted to impose such draconian peace terms on Germany, why not insist on unconditional surrender from the very beginning?

 

[GDIS Pathe]

For what it's worth, Britain and France didn't insist on unconditional surrender from Germany in 1939-1940. Indeed, if they wanted to impose such draconian peace terms on Germany, why not insist on unconditional surrender from the very beginning?

Because if they needed to make a white peace they could do that

 

[Mr Director]

Yeah don't think so the Wallies have just fought the Germans 2 twice in 20 years the sentiment of being lenient in Paris and London probably doesn't exist Germany will be made to pay the Saar is almost certain to go to France east Prussia might go to Poland Danzig is Polish for sure you might see the division of Germany into separate states Poland will serve the role of a buffer against the Reds with significant Western support.

What Poland? Presumably, the Soviets still took their half of it during the initial invasion of Poland as per otl, and I find it difficult to believe that the Soviets did not continue to move further west when it became clear that the Germans were going down. Even if Poland somehow got its rl post ww2 borders, it would more likely be under Russian influence than under the West's.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

What Poland? Presumably, the Soviets still took their half of it during the initial invasion of Poland as per otl, and I find it difficult to believe that the Soviets did not continue to move further west when it became clear that the Germans were going down. Even if Poland somehow got its rl post ww2 borders, it would more likely be under Russian influence than under the West's.

IIRC the Soviets were not prepared at all to move west at all and I don't think Stalin wants to antagonize the west this Poland whether shorn or not still gets Danzig and probably East Prussia. Also how would Poland be under Soviet influence unless there is a puppet government this Poland would certainly be in the Western camp

 

[CaliGuy]

What Poland? Presumably, the Soviets still took their half of it during the initial invasion of Poland as per otl, and I find it difficult to believe that the Soviets did not continue to move further west when it became clear that the Germans were going down. Even if Poland somehow got its rl post ww2 borders, it would more likely be under Russian influence than under the West's.

Poland might get saved from Soviet domination if the Schwarze Kapelle manage to launch a successful coup in Germany early enough, though.

 

[Arkenfolm]

If the Allies actually did expel millions of Germans from the Saar and Rhineland, then World War II would be a lot more morally grey, since the true horror of the Nazis was never unleashed and the Allies have just committed mass ethnic cleansing with hundreds of thousands of dead Germans amongst the millions of refugees.

 

[B-29_Bomber]

What if the Schwarze Kapelle succeed in overthrowing Hitler and the Nazis in this TL?

Poland might get saved from Soviet domination if the Schwarze Kapelle manage to launch a successful coup in Germany early enough, though.

You're forgetting my friend that to the Western Allies until post-war Hitler and the Nazis were merely a symptom of the problem.

The problem being Prussian Militarism. I assume that Schwarze Kapelle is the same group of the July 20th Plot fame?

It would be much the same as if they were successful in their Coup OTL. The WAllies say "Good riddance to bad rubbish, but seriously, here are your terms of Surrender. Deal with it."

 

[Mr Director]

IIRC the Soviets were not prepared at all to move west at all and I don't think Stalin wants to antagonize the west this Poland whether shorn or not still gets Danzig and probably East Prussia. Also how would Poland be under Soviet influence unless there is a puppet government this Poland would certainly be in the Western camp

In such a scenario, Stalins got a couple of choices as the Third Reich crumbles next door: He can either sit there and let the WAllies march up to his border in Poland, a border which, incidentally, only exists because Stalin invaded the Poles, or Stalin can take the opportunity to move west and establish a Polish buffer state. Considering that we're talking about Stalin here, I'd imagine he does not sit quietly and let the West roll up right next to him, from where they might, in his view, go on to push the soviets out of their portion of Poland and the Baltic states. If Germany is getting its ass handed to it by the French, then the relative unpreparedness of the Soviet army matters a whole lot less, because the Germans have got even bigger problems and are stretched quite thin already.

And yes, an early Schwarzenegger Kapelle coup could maybe save Poland from Soviet domination depending on how the WAllies approach the situation, however, if the WAllies insist on pushing for some kinda total dismemberment and destruction of Germany, I'd think the coup leaders would choose to keep fighting, in which case we end up with the same scenario of the Germans losing and the Russians quietly moving west when the time is right.