The post-WWII peace settlement in a no-Fall-of-France scenario?

What if the Schwarze Kapelle succeed in overthrowing Hitler and the Nazis in this TL?

They would demand unconditional surrender and if it wasn't given axe them anyway. Prussian militarism and such in the Wehrmacht were seen as being close to as big of a problem as Nazism, it was only really not just after the war but after the Berlin Blockade and the Korean War that people formed a difference between Germans and Nazis in their eyes.

People overestimate how much difference there was between the German Resistance, particularly within the military, and Hitler. Most of them were hardcore German nationalists, few liked democracy, and they agreed with Hitler in most fundamental ideological areas. There were some exceptions but these things were known at the time and the WAllies couldn't have trusted a junta.

Simply not good enough.
 
As mentioned by others do not expect the Germans to get off easier because a Prussian military junta (against whom the French and British largely see themselves as fighting) has seized control. France and Britain will be keen to avoid a stab-in-the-back myth, and in addition to ideological objections to Prussian militarism, conclusively driving home to the Germans the lesson that they lost will be a necessity.

Agreed with this. Indeed, Britain and France are probably going to want a Germany which is strongly under their influence yet at the same time strong enough to confront the Soviets (with Anglo-French assistance, of course).

That said, though, what exactly do you think that the final peace treaty is going to look like in this TL?

There is a fundamental problem with the German argument which they will make that they are necessary and vital to defend Europe against communism : this is the same argument that they have made for twenty years, and in particular were fervent proponents of it under fascism. The bulwark of the capitalist, European West is Germany which will defend against the (eastern slavic) Communists. This is unfortunately for the Germans, going to appear very much as spent currency for any German regime which wants to emphasize their anti-communist credentials. Germany after all, not only failed to act as a bulwark against the USSR, but conversely allied with it in a war of aggression against Poland, and readily acquiesced to Soviet conquest of the Baltic States, and part of Romania, as well as the attempted USSR conquest of Finland. Indeed, in the Finnish case, Germany went so far as to block international attempts to provide arms and volunteers to the Finns. Germany is more than simply unreliably anti-communist : by 1940 it will be easy to write that it is a natural ally with the USSR, which seeks to carve up Europe with it. Nor can the Germans claim that this belongs to just one government and that Hitler was insane while the rest of them supported an anti-communist policy. German military men, despite being fervently anti-communist domestically, went along without objections to allying with the USSR, and cooperated extensively with the USSR during the Weimar Republic - when Germany and the USSR were the closest thing the two nations had to international allies. Everybody in Germany is implicated in this, from the moderate left under the Weimar Republic to the militaristic far right.

If a Germany as a state exists post war, it'll be dis-armed and not be viewed as being trustworthy enough to be part of a military coalition against the USSR. As has been proposed in Blunted Sickle a few times, instead German contributions for defense against the USSR might take the form of direct payments to France and Britain to enable them to build up the powerful atomic forces that they'll need to provide for long-term defense against the USSR. Certainly, I can never see the Germans being allowed to be anything close to an independent actor, given that they blew that chance with Hitler, and the evident unreliability or outright pro-Soviet nature which German politics and geopolitics induces.

If Britain and France are OK with looking extremely bad in the eyes of the international community, then maybe, just maybe this could occur.

However, where exactly are the new settlers for the Rhineland going to come from? After all, France's population was already stagnating during this time.

If the Allies actually did expel millions of Germans from the Saar and Rhineland, then World War II would be a lot more morally grey, since the true horror of the Nazis was never unleashed and the Allies have just committed mass ethnic cleansing with hundreds of thousands of dead Germans amongst the millions of refugees.

Ethnic cleansing wasn't viewed in the same way pre-WW2 (or even in the years following WW2), as it was today. Not only was ethnic cleansing accepted without excessive moral qualms, see the post-war cleansing of Germans from across Eastern Europe, but conversely, it was even lauded in some cases : following the Turkish-Greek war the result was the near whole-scale expulsion of Greeks (defined as Orthodox Christians), from Turkey, and the also near-whole scale expulsion of Turks (defined as Muslims), from Greece. This was not looked on with indifference by the international community : rather it was actively facilitated by the League of Nations and was lauded as a step towards peace. Now, of course the Franco-German situation is different, it is not a mutual exchange in the case of the Saarland, but ethnic cleansing doesn't fall under the genocide label like today. The French could do ethnic cleansing if they wanted in the Saarland, on the heels of various German war crimes including but not limited to the Holocaust being released, without much of an international response.

Whether France would actively do such a project is questionable : personally I'd lean against the French ethnically cleansing the Saarland. But by the moral standards of the era they could get away with it.

I furthermore doubt that it would be that bad, beyond the moving people out of their home region. The death tolls for German post-WW2 population transfers happened under bad conditions, in devastated countries with insufficient food supplies for their own people, over long distances, with vengeful populations surrounding them, . By contrast a decision made to depopulate part of the Rhineland of Germans (which I doubt the French would do, but just to run with it), occurs in a situation with less pan-European devastation and famines, much shorter distances to other co-nationals, and with only the French army, which wouldn't engage in excessive state-sanctioned violence, being the French actors engaging with the Germans. I don't know how high the death toll would be but it probably would be a few thousand. That is terrible of course, but compared to the war crimes that Nazi Germany committed - which would include in a no-Fall of France scenario immense devastation and brutal mass murder and starvation exacted on the Polish people, massacres of French colonial troops and occasional massacres of standard troops such as those they committed against the British, plunging Europe into another horrible war, unprovoked aerial bombardments, and probably a less extensive but even more intensive Holocaust as in a Blunted Sickle there has been convincing evidence presented about that - this is well, pocket change.

For what it's worth, Britain and France didn't insist on unconditional surrender from Germany in 1939-1940. Indeed, if they wanted to impose such draconian peace terms on Germany, why not insist on unconditional surrender from the very beginning?

There's no need to inflame the Germans with ready-to-use propaganda until one's actually at the stage of being able to press such propaganda home...
 
Stalin is an opportunist. The Germans losing in the West and the French/British chosing to slug it out all the way to Berlin is an opportunity.

The old bearded Georgian will be laughing all the way to his dacha - the British, French and Germans sent yet again one of their peoples generation to die in French and Belgian fields while he supplied the Germans with resources in exchange for machinery preparing for the war which never came.
 

Redbeard

Banned
My guess is a German withdrawal to borders as at Munich agreement, and perhaps an internationally supervised referendum in Austria. The German case will not at least be de facto supported by everybody anxiously watching what Stalin will do next. He probably won't give up his part of Poland and probably already has annexed the Baltic states.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
My guess is a German withdrawal to borders as at Munich agreement, and perhaps an internationally supervised referendum in Austria. The German case will not at least be de facto supported by everybody anxiously watching what Stalin will do next. He probably won't give up his part of Poland and probably already has annexed the Baltic states.
No way whatsoever. Every inch of the Sudetenland is going back to Czechoslovakia, and every German is going to be kicked out. Stalin has already invaded the Baltics, he will probably move onto East Prussia too, but stop there. Allies will let him keep the Baltic states and East Prussia and the Kresy and Bessarabia, but it will be an uneasy peace and both sides will prepare for war soon afterwards. Austria will be separated from Germany, regardless of what the Austrians want. Poland will likely get Oder-Neisse Line in the West, although Czechoslovakia will probably get a little bit of Silesia that Poland got OTL. Germany has shown that it is both untrustworthy AND a Soviet ally, so Britain and France will have no reason to show it the slightest bit of leniency. In fact, it will probably be treated even worse than OTL. Germany got off easy in OTL because it was seen as a bulwark against Soviets. That won't be happening this time.
 
So, a few thoughts:
-People have mentioned Stalin, but the other important thing to remember is that in 1939-41, he was viewed in the West as a German ally; that was part of the rationale behind Operation Pike, after all, and it's not uncommon to see hand-wringing among pro-Allied writers in that period about a totalitarian bloc having formed to crush Western democracy. Unless he very publicly repudiates Nazism and invades Germany (something his army was not exactly prepared for, as witnessed by the debacles that were Poland and Finland), he's going to be viewed in that light. It's entirely possible that the Allies, if WWII turns out to be a short, victorious war instead of OTL's massive slaughter, might push back hard on Stalin retaining his gains.

-The other big European neutral: Italy. Assuming things go more or less as OTL until the Battle of France, where the Wehrmacht falls on its face, Italy still hasn't joined, and if it's quickly obvious that Germany is going to lose, they may not join at all. In that case, Mussolini will be doing everything in his power to rebuild bridges with the Allies; he's in the same boat as Stalin (viewed as pro-German neutral), and faces similar options. If he decides to backstab Hitler and join the Allies at the last minute (in a mirror image of what he tried to do OTL against France), he'll press for both the reestablishment of an independent Austria, and also possibly some border adjustments in that area as well.

-Franco will also be watching nervously. He's helped at this point by the fact that the defeated remnants of the Spanish Republic that fled to the USSR have all endorsed Stalin's pro-German policy, but he's threatened by the possibility that the undefeated French have a much bigger say in Allied councils, and may have more reason to follow up a quick defeat of Germany with a cleansing of perceived German allies on their other border. He will also be trying to placate the Allies as much as he can once their victory becomes obvious.

-The other big players in OTL, USA, Japan and China, all have other fish to fry and won't have much input (although no Fall of France obviously has huge knock-on effects on Asian-Pacific affairs).

-Finally, as others have noted, the idea that Prussian militarism meant that Germany was inevitably an untrustworthy imperialist bound and determined to try and conquer Europe once a generation was widely popular, and one that any anti-Hitler conspirators are going to run into win or lose. The lesson of Versailles is also going to loom large with respect to German disarmament/rearmament and the like.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
It's entirely possible that the Allies, if WWII turns out to be a short, victorious war instead of OTL's massive slaughter, might push back hard on Stalin retaining his gains.
Unfortunately for the Allies, though, Lord Curzon is the one who first proposed that the Soviet Union should annex eastern Poland. Thus, as Stalin would say, how exactly can he be less pro-Soviet/pro-Russian than Lord Curzon?
 
Unfortunately for the Allies, though, Lord Curzon is the one who first proposed that the Soviet Union should annex eastern Poland. Thus, as Stalin would say, how exactly can he be less pro-Soviet/pro-Russian than Lord Curzon?

Curzon has been dead for 15 years if the Wallies want Eastern Poland that will not change their opinions
 
Curzon has been dead for 15 years if the Wallies want Eastern Poland that will not change their opinions

The WAllies didn't much care about Eastern Poland, it was Finland that really got their hackles up first. Their rather more likely to be pushy over the Baltics. But having just finished a exhausting multi-year war, I rather doubt they'd be willing to haul off and attack Stalin... particularly since the Soviet reform and rearmament program would be bearing fruit by the time Germany's done for.

(something his army was not exactly prepared for, as witnessed by the debacles that were Poland and Finland)

That might no longer be the case before Germany's finished. It rather depends on how long things take, but if the war lasts in mid-'42 or longer, the Red Army should be prepared enough that it could indeed invade a Germany which still has most of it's strength concentrated against the west.
 
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The WAllies didn't much care about Eastern Poland, it was Finland that really got their hackles up first. Their rather more likely to be pushy over the Baltics. But having just finished a exhausting multi-year war, I rather doubt they'd be willing to haul off and attack Stalin... particularly since the Soviet reform and rearmament program would be bearing fruit by the time Germany's done for.

I know they probably wouldn't push for Eastern Poland I'm just refuting the point that if they want it the opinion of a dead guy ain't gonna change it
 
I know they probably wouldn't push for Eastern Poland I'm just refuting the point that if they want it the opinion of a dead guy ain't gonna change it

Fair enough. Still, I think that the Anglo-French are rather to view having to attack the USSR as being more costly to be worth it, particularly since from mid-'40 on they wouldn't have the same sort of blinders the Germans did that allowed them to ignore the scale of the enterprise, and instead embark more on a strategy of containment.
 
That might no longer be the case before Germany's finished. It rather depends on how long things take, but if the war lasts in mid-'42 or longer, the Red Army should be prepared enough that it could indeed invade a Germany which still has most of it's strength concentrated against the west.

would it last that long though? without French resources Germany would be on the verge of economic collapse
 
would it last that long though? without French resources Germany would be on the verge of economic collapse

Rather depends on how well the Anglo-French manage the subsequent battles and how lucky the Germans are. While the Germans only had one shot at an offensive, they still would have enough stocks to run a defensive fight for awhile, as well as the ability to export hardship onto the Poles and Czechs which, combined with access to some Soviet resources (although Stalin will demand a much greater prices then he did OTL without any threat of invasion, a price that the Germans have no choice but to pay) should allow them to last through at least most of 1941, like they are in A Blunted Sickle. Not to mention that the flipside is the Anglo-French still need time to build-up overwhelming force to take away of Germany's anemic economic situation. I certainly don't see the Germans ever making it past the latter part of 1942 though.

So, assuming a no coup scenario, late-'41 at the earliest, late-'42 at the latest.
 
The big question is how concerned are Britain/France about the Soviets? Do they see communism is a bigger threat than the Hun?
The other thing they'd be concerned about is a communist Germany- if the Allies offer nothing to the Germans- the Germans might just ally with uncle Joe fully- and then you get WWII part II, Britain+France vs Germany+USSR.

Not sure the Allies win that one, and I believe the Allies think they won't win that one- so the new German government has one card to play- red Germany. This will keep the peace terms from being too draconian- and Germans won't necessarily starve waiting it out either, as USSR will see it in their interest to keep the Germans fed enough.

If Poland stays independent somehow, Germany will get shorn of territory to compensate the Poles for loss of their eastern land. If Poland is a Russian puppet, they get nothing, and Germany might even get to keep Western Poland in exchange for ceding western territory to France- though the Germans will be monitored, perhaps with French/British occupation and a joint command led by the French.

Nazi crimes will be blamed on the Nazis, who will be purged, and Prussian militarism will also be purged. It will probably be individually targeted.

Another possibility is the USSR sneak attacks Germany while this is going on, grabbing what they can, in which case you still get a split Germany, or another act to WWII with the French and British and German army fighting the Russians in Germany.
 
The big question is how concerned are Britain/France about the Soviets? Do they see communism is a bigger threat than the Hun?
The other thing they'd be concerned about is a communist Germany- if the Allies offer nothing to the Germans- the Germans might just ally with uncle Joe fully- and then you get WWII part II, Britain+France vs Germany+USSR.

Not sure the Allies win that one, and I believe the Allies think they won't win that one- so the new German government has one card to play- red Germany. This will keep the peace terms from being too draconian- and Germans won't necessarily starve waiting it out either, as USSR will see it in their interest to keep the Germans fed enough.

If Poland stays independent somehow, Germany will get shorn of territory to compensate the Poles for loss of their eastern land. If Poland is a Russian puppet, they get nothing, and Germany might even get to keep Western Poland in exchange for ceding western territory to France- though the Germans will be monitored, perhaps with French/British occupation and a joint command led by the French.

Nazi crimes will be blamed on the Nazis, who will be purged, and Prussian militarism will also be purged. It will probably be individually targeted.

Another possibility is the USSR sneak attacks Germany while this is going on, grabbing what they can, in which case you still get a split Germany, or another act to WWII with the French and British and German army fighting the Russians in Germany.

Sneak attacks on the scale that would be required cannot happen without the Germans noticing and reacting the Red Army is also a mess and in no shape to do much of anything by this point
 
Sneak attacks on the scale that would be required cannot happen without the Germans noticing and reacting the Red Army is also a mess and in no shape to do much of anything by this point
So... the German army is right now busy slugging it out with the French in Belgium and Eastern Front yet again and needs everyone capable of holding a gun there to hold a gun and use it.

And now 4 million Soviet soldiers cross the border. They're a total mess, a total mess outnumbering the German defenders 100 to 1 in men and 5.000 to 1 in tanks and aircraft. Yeah, a complete mess.
 

Deleted member 94680

I think the important thing to remember when painting the Schwarze Kapelle as some kind of democratic saviour of Germany is the attitude of the WAllies towards them OTL. When they, or anyone connected to them, made contact with the WAllies they were rebuffed with short shrift. In this TL, Germany has already launched a unprovoked War of aggression, overturned a diplomatic agreement proposed to end the prospect of War in Europe and annexed the majority of a country 'protected' by the WAllies.

If their coup is successful (which I doubt) then the War won't end until the WAllies are victorious and dictating terms.
 
So... the German army is right now busy slugging it out with the French in Belgium and Eastern Front yet again and needs everyone capable of holding a gun there to hold a gun and use it.

And now 4 million Soviet soldiers cross the border. They're a total mess, a total mess outnumbering the German defenders 100 to 1 in men and 5.000 to 1 in tanks and aircraft. Yeah, a complete mess.

utterly unprepared lead by men who suffer from inexperience facing a prepared German defenses all the while suffering from a logistics system that quite frankly sucks along with inadequately trained crews inadequately supplied formations all running headlong into well-prepared kill zones all the while antagonizing the West. the Soviet army in 1941 was in no shape to do much of ANYTHING most certainly not launching an offensive into German territory. S
 
utterly unprepared lead by men who suffer from inexperience facing a prepared German defenses all the while suffering from a logistics system that quite frankly sucks along with inadequately trained crews inadequately supplied formations all running headlong into well-prepared kill zones all the while antagonizing the West. the Soviet army in 1941 was in no shape to do much of ANYTHING most certainly not launching an offensive into German territory. S
I get it, you're using Finland as an example. The thing is central Poland is not very mountainous and the winters are not particularly harsh there and the Germans dont have the home advantage because they themselves are invaders. Where would the German tanks and aircraft come from to defend in the East? They're already in use in the West. Even if the Red Army is a total mess the Red Airforce would rule the skies and pound everything from Kiev to Dresden back to the stone age.

The soldiers dont have to execute brilliant maneuvers, they just need to shoot their guns, the Germans even being 10 times better than the Soviets man vs man still means a crushing Soviet victory.
 
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