The Kaiser's Europe or What if Germany Won the First Battle of the Marne?

Yeah, a National Socialist, ultra-religious, or communist France is likely.
If I were the Germans, I'd try to destroy the British Home Fleet in one massive naval action. Something that disastrous to British prestige would be a propaganda victory and might make them sue for peace
I don't like National Socialist/Fascist France for three reasons, actually. The first is that it's overdone. Basically everyone who does a "Germany wins WW1" (except Kaiserreich) just reverses the Allies and Axis, and frankly I find it rather boring. The second reason and third reasons both have to do with the fact that I honestly can't even see it happening as likely, and it's only barely plausible. The second reason is that France has a longstanding tradition of liberty and democracy, meaning that an ideology calling directly for the dissolution of democracy and turn towards totalitarianism (as fascism and National Socialism do) is unlikely. And the third reason is that specifically National Socialism, but more generally fascism, was not at all inevitable. It depended on a variety of factors in order to rise in Germany, and the two most important factors were the "success" of the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia and the "stabbed-in-the-back" narrative that arose after the end of OTL's WW1.

I won't elaborate on the rise of communism in this TL in order to avoid any spoilers, but I can absolutely address the "stabbed-in-the-back" myth. As I'm sure you're probably aware, this narrative arose from the fact that, right up until the end of WW1, the German Army was at least holding against the Entente, and even in 1918 could launch mass offensives such as the Kaiserschlact. In order to explain why the Germans lost anyways, many of the commanders and soldiers proposed that the German war effort had been hindered on the homefront- either by the Jews, Communists, or both working together. While this is only a myth, it took root in the minds of German nationalists and, with a huge string of luck on their part, allowed for the rise of the Nazis in Germany.

This wouldn't happen in this TL's France. The French Army hadn't been hindered much by the homefront- rather, it was the French Army itself simply being too week to stand up to the German one. The defeat would seem much more reasonable in the eyes of the French. Would they be furious about the loss of some of their largest iron ore supplies in eastern France, and the dismantling of much of the French colonial empire? Of course they would be. But without the "stabbed-in-the-back" myth arising out of this, I find that having fascists rise up and take over France would be much, much harder, and might not even happen at all.

This isn't to say that the French far right would have no influence- far from it, in fact. What I'm saying is that they just wouldn't have the advantages that OTL's Nazis did in Germany in this TL's France.
 

ferdi254

Banned
And one thing speaks severely against France trying a new round. In 1814 they lost against Germany that was allied with Russia and the UK. 1871 they lost against Germany in a 1:1. ITTL they lost against Germany even though France (!) was allied with the UK and Russia.

Any French politician trying for a fourth round would be seen as a madman from the start.
 
And one thing speaks severely against France trying a new round. In 1814 they lost against Germany that was allied with Russia and the UK. 1871 they lost against Germany in a 1:1. ITTL they lost against Germany even though France (!) was allied with the UK and Russia.

Any French politician trying for a fourth round would be seen as a madman from the start.

True. This is one of major reason why France is not going against Germany anymore after it was defeated on Great War. Even in OTL French hadn't nuch of will enforce Germany staying on Treaty of Versailles in 1930's and it couldn't win Germany even with British aid. In any CP victory TL France is in even worse position.
 
I don't like National Socialist/Fascist France for three reasons, actually. The first is that it's overdone. Basically everyone who does a "Germany wins WW1" (except Kaiserreich) just reverses the Allies and Axis, and frankly I find it rather boring. The second reason and third reasons both have to do with the fact that I honestly can't even see it happening as likely, and it's only barely plausible. The second reason is that France has a longstanding tradition of liberty and democracy, meaning that an ideology calling directly for the dissolution of democracy and turn towards totalitarianism (as fascism and National Socialism do) is unlikely. And the third reason is that specifically National Socialism, but more generally fascism, was not at all inevitable. It depended on a variety of factors in order to rise in Germany, and the two most important factors were the "success" of the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia and the "stabbed-in-the-back" narrative that arose after the end of OTL's WW1.

I won't elaborate on the rise of communism in this TL in order to avoid any spoilers, but I can absolutely address the "stabbed-in-the-back" myth. As I'm sure you're probably aware, this narrative arose from the fact that, right up until the end of WW1, the German Army was at least holding against the Entente, and even in 1918 could launch mass offensives such as the Kaiserschlact. In order to explain why the Germans lost anyways, many of the commanders and soldiers proposed that the German war effort had been hindered on the homefront- either by the Jews, Communists, or both working together. While this is only a myth, it took root in the minds of German nationalists and, with a huge string of luck on their part, allowed for the rise of the Nazis in Germany.

This wouldn't happen in this TL's France. The French Army hadn't been hindered much by the homefront- rather, it was the French Army itself simply being too week to stand up to the German one. The defeat would seem much more reasonable in the eyes of the French. Would they be furious about the loss of some of their largest iron ore supplies in eastern France, and the dismantling of much of the French colonial empire? Of course they would be. But without the "stabbed-in-the-back" myth arising out of this, I find that having fascists rise up and take over France would be much, much harder, and might not even happen at all.

This isn't to say that the French far right would have no influence- far from it, in fact. What I'm saying is that they just wouldn't have the advantages that OTL's Nazis did in Germany in this TL's France.
France will be looking for a strongman after this, that is what I'm saying. Given the different circumstances between the Third Republic and Imperial Germany, a Bonaparte, Bourbon, or Legitimist restoration might be what happens. Communist or socialist takeover is also possible. The former of these might end up being in conjunction with a far-right effort to institute a semi-fascist or at least traditionalist government as a bulwark against the "Democracy that allowed our nation to be destroyed by the Hun horde" etc. A lot of options to play with here, especially since France starts off as a Democracy rather than an absolute monarchy
 
UPDATE #1
Hey guys! First of all, I want to thank all of you for reading this timeline so far! This is the first one I've ever published, and receiving such positive feedback (especially the criticisms!) makes me feel really good!

Second of all, I will probably not be posting new updates for a little while. This is because I'm using a new basemap! Unlike my original basemap, which only covers Europe, North Africa, and parts of the Middle East and Asia, this basemap covers the entire Earth. What this means is that 1) I will be redrawing all of the maps I have currently on here, and 2) I will be drawing more maps for sections of my timeline that are (as of now) rather lacking in said content. I'll try to avoid drawing anything that won't have any changes to it from OTL, and I'm not going to be drawing more maps for sections that already have one. Thank you again for being such a great audience and I'm really excited to continue work on this TL!
 
World Map 1914
1914 Map.png
 
Part 7
THE EASTERN FRONT IN 1916
Britain was scared that France had surrendered. Russia was downright terrified. With only two armies, the Germans had single handedly halted all Russian offensives into Germany, and had conquered all of Russia Poland, not to mention a large part of the Baltic region. Now, the vast majority of the German forces were on the Eastern Front, and defeat was looking more and more likely. The Russians knew they had to act fast.

While the Allies were meeting with the French and Belgians in Brussels, British diplomats were kept incredibly busy attempting to negotiate a French re-entry into the war and a Russian offensive that would weaken the Allies and encourage France to reconsider its declaration of surrender. In January, Prime Minister Asquith went to Petrograd in secret to discuss offensive operations with Tsar Nicholas II. The Tsar was not opposed to the proposal; in fact, Asquith noted to the British press that he seemed eager to go through with the plan. As a result, it took little convincing for the Tsar to begin preparing the attack.

Nearly the entirety of the Russian Army stood on the Eastern Front, including the newly-created 14th Army, using both new recruits and soldiers from the Caucasus Army. In late February, after nearly a month and a half of preparations, Tsar Nicholas II sent orders to the commanders of the Northern Front (Aleksey Kuropatkin), the Western Front (Alexei Evert), and the Southwestern Front (Nikolai Ivanov) to launch the attack. On February 28th, millions of men charged the German and Austro-Hungarian lines in a desperate attempt to drive them back. The Allies were caught off-guard by the attack, and in several places, especially along the front controlled by the Austro-Hungarians, the Russians were able to push them back. By the end of March, the 11th Army, supported by the 7th and 8th Armies, were advancing on the Austro-Hungarian city of Lemberg. Disaster seemed to be drawing closer, and suddenly the victory Germany had felt so assured of seemed far less certain.

For failing to stop the Russian offensive, Erich von Falkenhayen was forced to resign in April and replaced with Paul von Hindenburg. Von Hindenburg now had to deal with the so-called Ivanov Offensive, and fast. He ordered the German 7th Army directly in front of Lemberg, while the German 8th and Bug Armies would attack the 11th and 8th Russian Armies from their northern flank. He then asked the Austro-Hungarians to aid from the southern flank, in an attempt to cut off and surround the Russians, perhaps entirely annihilating them. Conrad von Hötzendorf never responded.

Still, von Hindenburg ordered the attack anyways. On April 19th, one day before the signing of the Treaty of Brussels, the 11th and 7th Armies clashed just outside Lemberg, while the 8th and Bug Armies waited. After two days of intense fighting near the city, the northern flank of the front suddenly closed in on the Russians, decimating the Russian 8th Army, linking up with the Austro-Hungarians in the south five days later, and completing the largest encirclement in history- over half a million men were killed, wounded, or captured in the Lemberg pocket. The Russian offensive was shattered.

With the spearhead of the offensive utterly annihilated, the rest of the Russian forces halted and fell back to their defensive positions. Unfortunately for them, however, the Allied forces were now hot on their heels, and out for blood. Advancing along the southern bank of the Daugava River, the newly-organized Northern Front, under the command of Erich Ludendorff, cut off the retreat of the Russian 12th and 5th Armies, and in early June they entered a practically undefended Minsk. The Southern Front, commanded by Josias von Heeringen, drove on Kiev, and on June 23rd had entered the outskirts of the city to a bitter defense by the Russian 7th Army. For two months the city held out against the German attack, until, finally, the 7th Army withdrew, its fighting capabilities practically obliterated. With the Russian army reeling from its defeats, the Allies easily swept into southern Ukraine, and by the end of the year they had effective control over all of the land west of the Dnieper-Daugava Line.
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sonofrome

Banned
Just found this timeline and what a great start. Russia looks soon to callopse, so much so actually, that I doubt the germans would even bother sending a certain violent disrupter over the border.
Germany I think wouldn't be desperate enough to risk a red takeover in Russia, and so I assume Lenin would remain in allied-controlled territory and surveillance.

Without Lenin whatever revolution takes place(if there is one?) is bound to be vastly different. Less organised and with vastly greater German influence, it is bound to fail IMO.

Russia will be bludgeoned by the allies and its revolution and will come out without Ukraine and White Russia, but still led by the Tsar, who is presumably at this point is as popular as someone who farted in a lift.

As long as German support for Tsar isn't going overboard, a military right wing coup should occur which wouldn't be viewed as an immediate threat by the Germans, who themselves are right wing and authoritarian. Very interesting Eastern Europe for sure. As for communisms fate, I suspect France will be first on the chopping block.

Great updates and maps, keepem coming, this should be wunderbar!
 
Yeah, Nicholas' government won't survive this. There are too many anti-autocratic forces in Russia to keep the status quo without victory. Only hope is that he abdicates for his son or Brother and hands Kerensky the actual power
 
Part 8
THE WAR ON THE SEA
For 1914 and most of 1915, the seas remained mostly clear of fighting. The German High Seas Fleet, commanded by Prince Heinrich, did not want to engage the British Royal Navy- after all, Britain had gained her dominance at sea, and it was at sea where Britain excelled. Thus, for the first part of the Weltkrieg, Britain and Germany engaged only in minor skirmishes at sea, choosing rather to fight on the terrestrial battlegrounds of the war instead. Instead, the U-Boat took center stage. The German submarine fleet snuck its way into the North Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean, and there they wreaked havoc. Due to the German policy of “unrestricted submarine warfare”, any ships, whether Entente or neutral, military or civilian, would be sunk by the U-Boats at will. Throughout the first phase of the war, they devastated Britain’s trade, as the Royal Navy could do little but mine the waters of its coasts and hope that the U-Boats crashed into them. On May 7th, 1915, one U-Boat in particular sank the RMS Lusitania, killing 128 American civilians. In response to American outrage, the practice of unrestricted submarine warfare was ended.

The situation drastically changed when Italy entered the war. After France’s defeat in the summer and fall of 1915, the French Navy was removed from the Entente fighting capabilities, while the Allies gained the Regia Marina, the Italian Royal Navy, under the command of Luigi Amadeo. The central Mediterranean Sea fell within the first few months to Italian naval dominance, effectively cutting the Mediterranean in half from the British perspective. Still, Britain owned Gibraltar and Malta, and they could send their ships through the Suez without issue.

This infuriated the leaders of the Allied Powers. Kaiser Wilhelm II had put a significant amount of Germany’s pre-war resources into the construction of the High Seas Fleet, and he wanted it to destroy the British Royal Navy in a decisive victory for Germany. In fact, he was even more infuriated by the fact that, although all of her continental allies, save Russia, had already surrendered, by 1916 the United Kingdom showed no signs of backing down from the Allies. With the Regia Marina now in use as well, Kaiser Wilhelm II ordered von Hindenburg to call a meeting with the Italians in order to discuss a decisive naval operation against Britain.

The Italians, meanwhile, were starting to have second thoughts about joining the war. Although there had never been an established date for when Italy would obtain the lands Austria-Hungary had promised to it other than after an Allied victory, Prime Minister Salandra was beginning to grow impatient. France had already been defeated, after all; why shouldn’t Austria-Hungary compensate Italy for practically winning the war against the Entente? When Chief of Staff Luigi Cadorna brought this up, he was instructed to present Germany with an ultimatum- either force Kaiser Franz Joseph to cède the territories promised to Italy during their negotiations, or Italy would make peace with the rest of the Entente on its own terms. Kaiser Wilhelm, upon hearing this, offered another deal to Italy- in return for their continued participation, the German Empire would back Italian annexations of British Somaliland, Malta, and the British Sierra Leone Colony. Reluctantly, Salandra accepted these terms, and the two sides began drawing up plans to defeat the British Royal Navy once and for all.

On May 10th, after months of preparations, the plan fell into motion. The Regia Marina left the safety of the Mediterranean Sea under cover of darkness, and were able to sneak past Gibraltar with minimal losses. On May 14th, the Napoli and Regina Margherita sunk the HMS King George V off the coast of Brittany, beginning the Battle of the Channel. The far inferior Italian navy soon came under the full assault of the Grand Fleet, the group of ships of the Royal Navy stationed in northern Europe, and Italy quickly lost ship after ship.

Unfortunately for the British, this is exactly what the Allies were counting on. May 19th, five days after the battle began, and when all hope appeared lost for the Italians, the High Seas Fleet appeared on the rear flank of the Royal Navy. No longer was the Regia Marina on the defensive- now, it would be the Royal Navy herself, the pride of the British Empire, off the coast of her very motherland. The British watched the battle unfold with bated breath.

The Battle of the Channel also saw the first widespread use of aerial combat in a naval battle as well. After being stationed in northern France, the Imperial German Air Service began attacking the Royal Navy from the skies to support the High Seas Fleet. In response, the British Royal Flying Corps joined the battle against the Allies, attempting to stop German aircraft from destroying their navy.
Fighting lasted between the two sides for nearly a month in a deadly stalemate. During the fighting, the Regia Marina was almost entirely annihilated, and the main focus of the battle shifted from the western to the eastern Channel. On June 1st, the British Mediterranean Fleet, facing almost no resistance in the Mediterranean from the Allies, linked up with the Grand Fleet, and eight days later, the Royal Navy was able to sink the SMS Friedrich der Grosse, the flagship of the High Seas Fleet, killing Prince Heinrich in the fight. In defeat, the High Seas Fleet retreated back to port in Germany. Britain had asserted itself as the primary ruler of the ocean, and had held firm against Allied encroachment. After this battle, no other significant naval engagements would occur in the Weltkrieg.
 
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sonofrome

Banned
Italy will want to get out of the war for good now, having little hope of acquiring what Germany had promised. I assume italy will now demand the territories from austria, Austria will say no or only give minor concessions after their successes on eastern front. I don't think Germany will side with italy on this one because Italy is now useless with no navy. Italy will angrily get out of the war(before Britain has a chance to invade its colonies?), still having gotten its western irredentist claims but salty with Germany and Austria.
 
Italy will want to get out of the war for good now, having little hope of acquiring what Germany had promised. I assume italy will now demand the territories from austria, Austria will say no or only give minor concessions after their successes on eastern front. I don't think Germany will side with italy on this one because Italy is now useless with no navy. Italy will angrily get out of the war(before Britain has a chance to invade its colonies?), still having gotten its western irredentist claims but salty with Germany and Austria.
So, whatever you put it, Italy would get out from a ww1 with a "mutilated victory" no matter the side they took
 

Monitor

Donor
So, whatever you put it, Italy would get out from a ww1 with a "mutilated victory" no matter the side they took
Admittedly assuming that the central powers would just hand over one of their own regions, which to top it all of is majority Austrian, was pretty unlikely.
 
Part 9
THE MIDDLE EASTERN FRONT IN 1916
1916 for the Ottoman Empire was an incredibly mixed bag. Although offensive operations against the Russians in Caucasia would be nigh impossible without significant German support, neither could they do any significant damage to the Turks either, with nearly the entirety of the Russian Army being ground to dust by the Germans and Austro-Hungarians on the Eastern Front. As a result, the Turkish 3rd Army simply held their positions throughout most of 1916, instead focusing their attention on other fronts.

The Mesopotamian front was one of these. With a large British force commanded by General Townshend now surrounded in Kut and rapidly losing supplies, yet another Allied victory seemed just over the horizon. Between January and April, multiple British attacks were launched in an attempt to relieve Townshend and drive the Ottoman 6th Army back. After the disastrous Gallipoli campaign, many British soldiers were sent directly to Mesopotamia, where they joined in these attacks. General Nixon had been replaced in January by General Percy Lake as the Commander of the Mesopotamian Force, and with these new soldiers he wanted desperately to protect his image, as well as to defeat the Ottomans decisively in order to knock them out of the war. As such, he ordered a massive offensive towards Kut on April 18th. On April 21st, when news reached Lake of the signing of the Treaty of Brussels, he changed his plans- rather than an attack solely to liberate the defenders of Kut, the relief of Kut would only be a primary objective- he ordered Baghdad as the next immediate target. As such, much of the British force was sent to the western flank of the front, leaving fewer troops in the east to punch through towards Kut.

The result was the fall of Kut. Townshend, seeing that his soldiers literally could not hold out another day, decided to simply surrender to the Ottomans rather than continue fighting, and on April 29th, the Siege of Kut was over. With the Ottoman 6th Army now freed up, the British advance towards both Kut and Baghdad were halted in early May, and the Entente was forced to fall back downriver.

The defeat at Kut was humiliating for the British, and they were determined not to lose another battle. After stabilizing the front line, Percy was replaced by General Frederick S. Maude, who, rather than attempt another attack, decided instead to build up the occupied territory to allow further British reinforcements to arrive and stay in the region, while also training and organizing the ever-growing Mesopotamian Force.

Despite repeated attempts in 1915 to take the Suez from Britain by the Turks, the canal remained firmly in British hands. The Allies were, however, determined to take the canal, convinced that a seizure of the Suez would result in a British surrender on favorable terms to the Allied Powers. As such, the original plan of the Allies was to send the German 7th Army south to the Sinai to aid the Ottomans in their efforts. These plans were dashed, however, when the Russians launched a general offensive against the Allies on the Eastern Front. As such, the 7th Army was recalled just before it would have otherwise been sent to the Sinai Peninsula and ordered instead to defend Lemberg from the Russians. The Ottomans were now on their own in the attack.

The situation worsened in June. Arab nationalists under the leadership of Sharif Hussein bin Ali and with aid from the British Empire attacked Ottoman soldiers stationed in Mecca on June 10th, sparking the Arab Revolt. By the middle of July, the holy city of Islam was firmly in Hussein’s hands, as well as much of the central Hejaz region. Even more Ottoman soldiers became tied down, and although by the end of the year the Sharif’s advance had been halted, this left even fewer soldiers for the planned attack on the Suez.

Despite this, the attack was still sent forth. On August 3rd, Ottoman soldiers under the command of German General Kress von Kressenstein attacked British forces under General Archibald Murray in the town of Romani, sparking a two-day battle for control of the town. On August 5th, the British were able to decisively defeat the Ottoman incursion and force them back on the defensive. A slow yet steady British advance then
began against the Ottomans, and by the end of the year, the Sinai Peninsula was back under British control.
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WAR IN THE COLONIES IN 1916
Despite the signing of the Treaty of Brussels, the nations at war with the Allies refused to recognize it as legitimate- especially Britain. Just before the surrender of the French government, British soldiers began entering and occupying French colonies. While these occupations were presented by Britain as a measure to protect France’s territorial integrity, more than a few in France grew worried that this was, in fact, a pretext for a British annexation of French colonies (as documents that would surface decades later from the British government would expose, these worries were not without merit).

After the fall of France, the occupation sped up rapidly. By the time of the signing of the Treaty of Brussels, almost none of the land promised to Germany outside of Europe was actually in German hands- instead, Britain owned the vast majority of it. The original German plan was to launch a naval invasion of Africa after the Royal Navy was dealt with- a plan which, for obvious reasons, could never actually be implemented. As such, the only major Allied presence was in German East Africa, and in the Italian colonies.

The Italian colonies were now in a very vulnerable position. After the near-total obliteration of the Regia Marina in the Battle of the Channel, the Libya, Eritrea, and Somaliland were left practically defenseless, and Britain saw the opportunity that this presented. With minimal casualties on either side, British colonial soldiers entered and occupied Libya in July and August, and took control over Eritrea and Somaliland between October and December. With these footholds in Africa lost, nearly the entirety of Africa was under British control- and the Allies could do nothing against it but continue the guerilla war Germany was fighting in East Africa, and hope for the best when peace returned to the globe.

Britain, however, also had to deal with its own colonies- Ireland in particular. Before the outbreak of the Weltkrieg, Ireland had nearly established home-rule for itself- it would gain its own parliament, separate from the one in London, and would be free to run its domestic affairs, while receiving ample protection from the British Empire in terms of foreign policy. These hopes, however, were dashed as the British government decided to put Irish home-rule on the backburner as it faced the horrors of the Weltkrieg. Initially, the Irish were even somewhat supportive of Britain’s involvement in the war; thousands of Irishmen signed up with the British Army and left to fight in the many battlefields of the war.

These allied sentiments died quickly, however, and by 1916, tensions were bubbling just underneath the surface, and the Allies wanted to do everything in their power to exploit them. On April 24th, during Easter Week, rebels of the Irish Republican Brotherhood seized control of Dublin, with limited aid from Germany. For five days, the rebels held out, but finally the British Army was able to quash the rebellion and restore order to Ireland. The leaders of the uprising, most notably James Conolly, an Irish socialist, were quickly executed. Despite the initial victory, however, this only served to inflame tensions between the Irish and British even more, and as the Weltkrieg progressed, they would only continue to grow.
 
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