The Kaiser's Europe or What if Germany Won the First Battle of the Marne?

Part 1
THE WELTKRIEG

THE ASSASSINATION OF THE ARCHDUKE
June 28th, 1914 started out fairly normally in the city of Sarajevo. Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir-presumptive of the Austro-Hungarian throne, had supposedly been sent to the city to inspect the military units stationed there, although in truth Ferdinand and his wife, Sophie, planned on opening a state museum in the city.

Knowing that Ferdinand planned on going to the city, members of the Serbian terrorist group, the Black Hand, plotted to assassinate him. In total, 7 members of the group lined the streets of the city, waiting for Ferdinand. The assassins failed in their mission. One would-be assassin threw a bomb at the wrong car, resulting in some injuries but not the death of Franz Ferdinand. Most of the rest simply lost heart before they were supposed to kill the archduke and fled.

However, the cab driver’s wrong turn would change the course of history forever. The cab driver ended up turning onto a street where one of the would-be assassins, named Gavrilo Princip, was waiting. Wasting no time, Princip fired his pistol twice, killing both Ferdinand and his wife right then and there.

THE LAST DAYS OF PEACE
The Austro-Hungarian Kaiser Franz Joseph was furious. Before taking any action, however, he asked the German Empire, led by Kaiser Wilhelm II, for assistance in the case that war broke out. Wilhelm II agreed, and Franz Joseph took action.

Believing that Serbia had been involved in Ferdinand’s assassination, Franz Joseph sought to punish the Serbian government. Thus, he sent an ultimatum to the Serbian government on July 23rd, demanding that Serbia ban anti-Austrian propaganda and Serbian nationalist groups, hand over those suspected of being linked to the assassination to Austria-Hungary, and to allow the Austrian police to investigate the assassination on Serbian soil. Franz Joseph, however, secretly wanted a war with Serbia, and sent the demands to the country, knowing them to be completely ridiculous. Serbia, for its part, accepted all of the demands except for allowing Austrian police onto its soil. This was not good enough for Franz Joseph, and Austria-Hungary prepared for war. On July 28th, Franz Joseph sent a declaration of war to Serbia, beginning the Weltkrieg.

THE WESTERN FRONT IN 1914
Immediately following the Austrian declaration of war, the network of alliances within Europe kicked off, with Russia and France supporting Serbia and with the German Empire supporting Austria-Hungary. The Allied Powers (Germany and Austria-Hungary) were now about to face a war on three fronts.

The German General Staff, led by Helmuth von Moltke, had prepared for exactly this type of war, however, and prepared to enact their Schlieffen Plan. The plan called for a quick German invasion of France through Belgium and Luxembourg to force France into capitulation, which would leave the German Army free to focus on Russia. On August 4th, German soldiers entered Belgium.

Belgium counted on the United Kingdom to honor the Treaty of London, which guaranteed the independence of Belgium against any invasion. True to their word, the same day that Belgium was invaded, King George V issued an official declaration of war against the German Empire. Despite this, the German Army under von Moltke advanced rapidly through Belgium and France, forcing the Entente into a general retreat towards Paris. On September 2nd, Moltke ordered a change of plans- rather than push directly towards Paris, the German Army would attempt to surround and destroy the French soldiers between Paris and Verdun. Karl von Bulow’s 2nd Army would be the primary striking force against the French, while Alexander von Kluck’s 1st Army would protect Bulow’s flank. The plan was agreed upon by all involved generals, and immediately began to be implemented.

On the Entente side, the French Commander-in-Chief Joseph Joffre decided to replace the general of the French 5th Army, Charles Lanrezac, with Louis Franchet d'Espèrey. The Fifth Army was directly in the path of the German 1st Army, and Joffre ordered d'Espèrey to hold the front against von Kluck at all costs. The British Expeditionary Force, under the command of John French, soon joined with the 5th Army on their left flank, further strengthening the front against the Germans.

Unfortunately for the Entente, this plan would still fail. The German 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th Armies smashed into the French 9th, 4th, and 3rd Armies respectively, and von Kluck’s 1st Army punched through the French screening force on September 7th, further threatening the Entente line. Joffre saw the writing on the wall, and decided to retreat yet again from the pocket the Germans were about to trap them inside of, rather than attempt to hold out against the German assault. Throughout September, the French fought as they fled, making sure to inflict as many casualties on the Germans as possible. Finally, on September 21st, the Entente halted just behind the Seine River, establishing a defensive line from the French-Swiss border to the suburbs of Paris. The German Army engaged this defensive line between September 23rd and September 29th, but were so overstretched that their offensive was swiftly halted by the French and British forces, and the Germans had to dig in across from the Entente.

While the eastern portion of the Western Front had stabilized, the area between Paris and the English Channel was left wide open, and both sides immediately began trying to outflank one another in what became known as the Race to the Sea. After a brief period of repositioning of both armies, the German 2nd and 6th Armies assaulted the French 10th Army and the BEF north of Paris on the 17th of September in an attempt to surround the city from both the north and south. While the southern advance was halted along the Seine, the 2nd and 6th Armies were able to make impressive gains against the significantly more open northern front early on. As the front south of Paris stabilized, however, more and more soldiers were moved to prevent Germany from surrounding Paris, and by the 21st of October the German advance had been halted along the Somme River. Despite being able to stop the German offensive, all of Belgium and a sizable portion of the French northern coast had been lost before the stalemate began.

Along the Western Front, the war devolved into a stalemate as both sides dug lines of trenches to defend against attacks from the other side. Human wave assaults were common against the opposing trenches, and hundreds of thousands of casualties were taken as they were mowed down by machine guns and artillery strikes. Both sides told their soldiers that they “would be home by Christmas”; yet as Christmas neared, the stalemate showed no sign of breaking, and the war appeared as though it would never advance beyond its current state.
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Riain

Banned
The Germans hold Cap Griz Nez from the start of the war, there's the PoD. A war-winning one in the longer term if I may say so myself.
 
so no POD yet then?
the POD is that the German 1st Army is actually able to defeat the French 5th Army during the Battle of the Marne, thus allowing the Germans to obtain a victory in the battle and push the Western front significantly closer to Paris than in OTL
 
Part 2
THE EASTERN FRONT IN 1914
The Schlieffen Plan had assumed that Russia would take a long time to prepare for war, and as such Germany could focus its efforts on France and then turn its forces east to face the Russians. Because of this, Germany set up an extremely small screening force in East Prussia, which the German General Staff believed would not be able to hold out against the Russians for more than a month.

In both of these assumptions, the German General Staff proved to be incorrect. Firstly, the Russian forces were ready for battle by mid-August and, in an attempt to draw forces away from their ally in France, they began an offensive towards the Prussian city of Konigsberg. On August 26th, the Russians, commanded by Alexander Samsonov of the 2nd Army and Paul von Rennenkampf of the 1st Army, met the heavily outnumbered German 8th Army, led by Paul von Hindenburg and Erich Ludendorff, in the Battle of Tannenberg. Four days later, the Russians had been annihilated, with the Russian Second Army completely wiped out and Samsonov dead.

After their astounding victory at Tannenberg, German forces began preparations to drive the Russians out of East Prussia completely. On September 9th, their offensive, led by Hindenburg, began, and Rennenkampf’s soldiers were unprepared and forced to withdraw from the region by mid-September. The screening force that had been designed to simply hold out against the Russians had proven that they were fully capable of taking on the Russians almost singlehandedly.

To the south, the Austro-Hungarians fared significantly worse than their German counterparts. On August 23rd, the Russian Southwestern Front under Nikolai Ivanov marched into Galicia, catching Conrad von Hötzendorf’s 1st, 3rd, and 4th Armies off-guard. Ivanov proceeded to rout four attacking Austrian armies by early September, successfully occupying almost all of Galicia by September 11th and laying siege to the fortress town of Przemyśl five days later.

The German General Staff was understandably nervous about the possibility of Austria-Hungary being defeated, and thus prepared another offensive to drive into Poland and drive the Russians out. The newly-formed German 9th Army and the Austro-Hungarian 1st Army, commanded by von Hindenburg and Viktor Dankl von Krasnik respectively, launched an attack towards the Vistula River against the Russian 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 9th Armies on September 28th. Early in the offensive, a Russian screening force was beaten by the Austrians and most of its men were made prisoners. On October 9th, German soldiers reached the western banks of the Vistula, and only a few days later had nearly reached Warsaw. Then, the Russian Northwestern Front, commanded by General Nikolai Ruzsky, counterattacked against the German left flank, forcing them back from Warsaw. Due to a refusal by Dankl to send detachments of his own to aid the Germans because he did not want his own men intermingling with the German Army, the offensive was beaten back by the end of October, with the Germans and Austro-Hungarians having made minimal gains against the Russians.

On November 1st, due to his successful defense of Germany’s eastern front against the invading Russians, Paul von Hindeburg was appointed as the commander of the German Eastern Front. Soon after, the 9th Army, now stationed in Silesia, received word that the Russians planned to attack the region on November 14th. Rather than allow them the opportunity to punch through the front, von Hindenburg decided on a bold strategy- he would move the 9th Army north to the fortress of Thorn to meet up with a few detachments of the 8th Army, and with this enlarged force he would attack the Russian right flank before they had an opportunity to invade Silesia.

The Russians, still preparing for their attack on Silesia, were taken completely by surprise on November 11th when the German 9th Army smashed into the Russian 1st Army and drove a wedge between the 1st and 2nd Armies. The 2nd Army retreated towards Łódź while the 1st Army, now positioned near Warsaw, remained in place, despite Rennekampf’s insistence that they aid the 2nd against the German advance. On November 16th the offensive into Silesia was officially cancelled as the Russian 5th Army went to Łódź instead.

The German right flank, commanded by Reinhard von Scheffer-Boyadel, pushed between Łódź and the Vistula, and the Russian 1st Army saw an opportunity to halt the offensive. They cut off von Scheffer from the German supply lines and threatened the entirety of the 9th Army, now halted by the arrival of the 5th Army from the south. Von Scheffer then pulled off an escape from the pocket by punching through the Russian line at Brzeziny, and by the 26th of November they had rejoined the rest of the 9th Army. Ruzsky, for his part, had issued multiple conflicting orders to his armies, perhaps allowing the pocket to be broken out of. Sporadic fighting in the region continued up to the 29th, when Tsar Nicholas II ordered a general retreat to a defensive line around Warsaw and the Vistula River. Seizing the opportunity, the Germans moved in behind the Russians, occupying Łódź in early December.

While the German advance in the north had been halted, so had the Russian advance in the south. Despite his early victory in the Battle of Galicia, Ivanov was unable to subdue the city of Przemyśl or push across the Carpathian Mountains due to the heavy Austro-Hungarian defenses in the region. In fact, in early December the Habsburg 3rd and 4th Armies were able to deal a defeat to the Russian 3rd and 8th Armies near Limanowa, ending Ivanov’s chances of taking Kraków or breaking into the Hungarian plain. The Austro-Hungarians attempted to further their gains and drive towards Przemyśl, but by the end of 1914 they were forced back, and the stalemate, as it did in the west, continued in the east.
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THE SERBIAN FRONT IN 1914
Immediately after the outbreak of the War of 1914, Austro-Hungarian artillery began shelling Serbia. On August 12th, Austria-Hungary began its assault on Serbia, crossing the Drina River into Serbia. However, the Austrian 2nd and 5th Armies, under Oskar Potiorek were pushed back into Austria-Hungary after the Battle of Cer, in which the Serbian 2nd and 3rd Armies, led by Radomir Putnik, defeated Potiorek in late August.

Following their victory against the Allied Powers, the Serbian 2nd Army under Stepa Stepanovic launched a limited offensive into Bosnia in September, but were pushed back by the beginning of October. With the front stabilized, Austro-Hungarian forces once again began preparing for an offensive against Serbia.

On November 5th, Potiorek’s 5th and 6th Armies launched a second offensive into Serbia. On November 16th, the two sides met in the Battle of Kolubara. At first, the Serbians were forced to retreat from their capital, Belgrade, and allow Austro-Hungarian forces to occupy the city, but when the Serbian Army under Putnik launched a counterattack on December 2nd, Potiorek was caught off-guard and the Austro-Hungarians were forced to retreat from Serbia yet again. For the moment, Serbia had secured its existence.

NEW ALLIES IN THE WAR
The Ottoman Empire was not nicknamed the “sick man of Europe” for nothing. For the past century, it had been slowly falling apart from the inside out, and by the 1900s it was barely a shadow of its former self. In 1912, it had lost almost all of its European holdings to the nations of the Balkans, after losing Libya and the Dodecanese to the Italians. Thus, when Europe went to war in 1914, debates began in the Ottoman Empire as to which side would offer them the best opportunity to expand.

In August 1914, the Three Pashas (the true leaders of the Ottoman Empire) signed a secret alliance with the Allied Powers, thus ending debate. For the next three months, the Ottomans began mobilizing their forces, which was significantly compounded by the outdated infrastructure of the Ottoman Empire. Finally, on October 29th, a detachment of the Ottoman navy carried out a raid on multiple Russian Black Sea ports, with formal declarations of war between the Ottoman Empire and the Entente Powers within a few days of the attack.

While the Eastern Mediterranean erupted in warfare, the center of the sea remained quiet. Although Italy was originally a member of the Triple Alliance (between Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the aforementioned Italy), Italian troops had not been committed to any fronts on behalf of the Allies, and no declarations of war had come from Antonio Salandra’s government either. While Salandra argued that the reason for this was that the Triple Alliance was merely a defensive pact, and that it had been Austria-Hungary that was the aggressor in the war, the truth was that twelve years before the outbreak of the Weltkrieg, Italy had entered into a secret agreement with France that secured Italian neutrality in the event of a German attack on France. Despite their declared neutrality, however, the Italian government had already decided to enter negotiations with both sides, hoping to get the best deal in terms of territorial expansion possible.

Even though the Germans had been halted in their advance, their proximity to the French capital had led many to believe that a breakthrough by the Germans was inevitable, and that the fall of Paris would only be a matter of time. As such, Italian Foreign Minister Sidney Sonnino decided to first negotiate with the Allies. At first, these went nowhere- Austria-Hungary promised only a few of the irredentist claims that Italy had made on their lands, and barely anything from the Entente either. With the Entente appearing to be standing on their last legs, however, Sonnino was hesitant to enter negotiations with them, for fear of reprisal from the Allied Powers in the (now very likely) event that they were victorious, and that gave the Allies just the amount of time they needed. The German government pressured Austria-Hungary to re-enter negotiations with the Italians and promise them more gains in return for their support. While not all of the Italian claims would be secured, during the negotiations Kaiser Franz Joseph promised Italy all of Trentino, South Tyrol, and Tunisia, and even proposed that the Italian border be expanded west to include Corsica, Nice, and Savoy. Sonnino, deciding that this would be the best deal he could make with the Allies, accepted, and began preparing Italy for war.
 
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Also just so that everyone is aware this is my first ATL that I've actually posted, so if it seems that I'm inexperienced or whatever at this that's probably why, I assume I'll improve with time and practice :)
 

Monitor

Donor
Can you please threadbare your main posts? Might help for new readers (right now not a problem, but if you have 10+ posts, it could be nice, especially if they are spread out over 5-20 pages...
 
Not that I have much experience either but I would recommend separating your paragraphs

like this

as opposed to
like this. Makes it easier to read.
 
Can you please threadbare your main posts? Might help for new readers (right now not a problem, but if you have 10+ posts, it could be nice, especially if they are spread out over 5-20 pages...
Not that I have much experience either but I would recommend separating your paragraphs

like this

as opposed to
like this. Makes it easier to read.
thank you for the tips guys! I appreciate it :)
 
Part 3
THE CAUCASIAN FRONT IN 1914
Following the Ottoman Empire’s entry into the Weltkrieg, Russia attempted an offensive against them. On November 1st, the Russian Caucasus Army, commanded by Georgy Bergmann and supported by Armenian volunteer units, entered the Eleskirt valley in order to prevent the Ottoman forces from advancing into the Caucasus. Bergmann’s forces were able to quickly seize control of the valley; however, the Ottoman 3rd Army under Hasan Izzet Pasha began its own counteroffensive, driving the Russians back out by November 17th.

Following their success, the Ottoman forces attempted their own advance into the Russian Caucasus in December. On December 15th, they captured Ardahan, and on the 22nd, the 3rd Army engaged the Russians in the Battle of Sarikamish. The Caucasus Army, under the command of Count Ilarion Vorontsov, was ordered by the commander to retreat, but General Nikolai Yudenich refused to obey the order, staying behind with his soldiers to defend the city. In Persia, sporadic fighting ensued as the Ottomans slowly advanced, although the focus was (for the most part) between the Ottomans and Russians directly.
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THE MIDDLE EASTERN FRONT IN 1914
When the Ottoman Empire entered into the Weltkrieg, the Entente Powers began coordinating an attack against them. On November 6th, soldiers of the Indian Expeditionary Force landed at the old fort of Fao. Meeting minimal Ottoman resistance, the British, supported by soldiers from Kuwait, advanced up the Euphrates and Tigris, capturing Basra and beating a small Ottoman force in the Battle of Qurna.

CONFLICT IN AFRICA AND ASIA IN 1914
Although the main areas of conflict during the Weltkrieg were concentrated in and around Europe and the Middle East, the empires that engaged in the fighting spanned the globe, and as such fronts emerged across multiple continents. In the month of August, the German colony of Togoland was invaded from both the east and west by a joint Anglo-French force. Invasions of Kamerun, German South-West Africa, and German East Africa were also attempted, but by the end of 1914 few gains had been made by either side.

In Asia, another nation had joined with the Entente. The rising power of East Asia, the Japanese Empire, sought to expand its territorial holdings, and when the Weltkrieg broke out, Emperor Taishō declared war on the German Empire after agreeing with the British that they would be free to annex German colonies after an Entente victory. The Japanese Imperial Navy then blockaded the German port of Tsingtao in late August, and in late October the Imperial Army began an assault on the city, commanded by Kamio Mitsuomi. The Germans were vastly outnumbered by the Japanese, and by November 7th they were forced to surrender.

The German Pacific colonies fared even worse than Tsingtao- unlike the port city, the Entente forces were able to occupy the German-held islands nearly without bloodshed. By the end of 1914, nearly all of the Pacific and Asia had been rid of Allied forces.
 
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While not all of the Italian claims would be secured, during the negotiations Kaiser Franz Joseph promised Italy all of Trentino, South Tyrol, and Tunisia, and even proposed that the Italian border be expanded west to include Corsica, Nice, and Savoy. Sonnino, deciding that this would be the best deal he could make with the Allies, accepted, and began preparing Italy for war.
No way South Tyrol. Never. Nil chance.
 
True. Not any chance that Franz Joseph would accept giving any square meter from his empire. CPs might promise Tunisia and whatever from metropolitan France but never anything from A-H.
In OTL A-H did actually promise Italy small portions of their land in return for them joining the Central Powers
 
True. Not any chance that Franz Joseph would accept giving any square meter from his empire. CPs might promise Tunisia and whatever from metropolitan France but never anything from A-H.
As well as that a promise is just that- a promise. Just like after the end of WW1 in OTL the Treaty of London was broken by the Entente, A-H could just as easily promise land to Italy and then not follow through with it, perhaps leading to war in the future...
 
So the Schliffen Plan "kinda" worked in this tl, but still failed to do its objective. If that is the case, it would be an easier Western Front for Germany. Since the Marne was won, they would be a lot closer to Paris (according to the first post, defences were made in Paris' suburbs!), But was still halted at the Seine River. Being a lot closer, the Germans can start bombing the city by artillery (does the Paris Gun still exist here?), forcing civilians to take cover.

In basic, in a HOI4 perspective, we have a France closer to capitulation, a Belgium defeated, and an easier time for the Kaiser.
 
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