The Dukes of Fernau, for now.

[traminer]

The episode above felt a little as though I was too-conveniently dispensing with nearby plot points that are influential but still peripheral to the main story. As this is my first timeline, I'm learning as I go, and one thing I'm learning is how much attention to give and not give to events that involve Courland and Semigallia less.

Any feedback is welcome on whether this approach amounts to too much telling and not enough showing. In my mind's eye, I'm trading away the chance to invest in more storytelling on events in the margins in order to have the main story take a greater focus - with more episodes, more narrative and character-centric stories, and more word count dedicated there.

Butterflies land in all sorts of places, and have already. But butterflies further from Courland may be kinda-sorta summarized in episodes like the above. As I said, though: happy to have feedback. As readers and writers of this site, you've seen such writer's dilemmas before. I'm recognizing them for the first time as I reach each one.

That said, I might as well include my personal theory of alternate history here, because it somewhat guides my decision-making on divergences and butterflies. Call it "multiversal fatalism" if you like: an alternate history will generally regress or realign towards OTL history, should forces preventing such realignment be lacking. The butterflies that escape the farthest are the likeliest to become irrelevant. A divergence needs more pushing to keep it divergent.

It's worth adding a summary of divergences at this point:

OTL:
Poland and Lithuania split only in the next war, and Lithuania aligned with Sweden - briefly - before returning to the res publica with Poland once more. The liberum veto became more and more relevant in Polish/Lithuanian sejms, paving the way for partitions down the road. The new Grand Duke of Lithuania was indeed Bohdan Khmelnytsky's first choice. In Poland, meanwhile, Wladyslaw lived a little longer but died the same way. The key thing is he outlived his son OTL, causing two of his brothers to become the main candidates for his succession (our TTL Grand Duke of Lithuania dropped out when his father died).

The Cossack hetmanate gained less territory, and allied with Russia to take the lands of today's Eastern Ukraine into Russia, and later on.

Russia retook Smolensk in the same wars that saw Courland and Semigallia rolled by Sweden. Their advancement to the Düna river happened later still.

The Crimean Tatars were pretty much the same.

Courland and Semigallia didn't gain Dünaburg and Kreutzburg. (Don't worry, this timeline isn't going to see Jakob Kettler marching victory parades through the streets of Moscow any time soon.)

Mostly, I'm playing with the timing of a handful of deaths for interestingness: placing the above in 1644 has Wladyslaw's son survive him (this son would die age 7 OTL). Sigismund Rákóckzi's father's death saw him withdraw his candidacy OTL, but TTL sees him become Grand Duke before his father's death. Tsar Michael OTL dies in 1645. All these OTL deaths can still have interesting consequences when the occur TTL, especially in Poland.

 

[traminer]

Poland's situation probably will become worse before it becomes better. It isn't exactly well-off, but it is intact technically speaking, no flames burning above the polish sky, and that means soon enough there will be flames, with no Commonwealth to amass the resources needed for coping with that. Almost cruel.

Cruel with a dash of kindness. Poland will be forced to get its act together. It will hurt. But getting its act together can make this newer Poland a little more resilient, rather than looking like a breadbasket country one political or partition disaster away from irrelevance.

And I'll add: I've thought through what happens to Courland when things next fall apart in the neighbourhood. I have only very vaguely thought through how things turn out for the rest of Eastern Europe and the Baltic, beyond considering what's plausible for each. I'll leave a mess behind, but which mess remains up in the air.

On to researching better and worse mid-17th-century European roads. Seems roads built by ancient Romans are still best-of-breed for the most part. Anyone with historical engineering knowledge on this, kindly hit me up.

 

[chipsy_21]

This is very interesting, definitely watched.

 

[Jürgen]

Cruel with a dash of kindness. Poland will be forced to get its act together. It will hurt. But getting its act together can make this newer Poland a little more resilient, rather than looking like a breadbasket country one political or partition disaster away from irrelevance.

Yes, but it’s unlikely to happen, but on the other hand Sweden have a lot less interest in attacking Poland, while Sweden likely still wish for control over the Vistula trade and Courland, Poland is no potential threat any longer. Livonia gave Sweden half its state budget [1]. So Sweden have a greater interest in pushing the Russian out of Latgalia. Of course with no Swedish-Polish War OTL Dano-Swedish War is also avoided unless Sweden turn on Russia instead and Denmark join the Russians. But it also mean no Dutch conquest of New Sweden, which means New Sweden will stay around until it end up on the wrong side of a war with the Dutch or English. Of course beside getting rid of the Russians in Latgalia, Courland is clearly the other major Swedish foreign policy goal.

And I'll add: I've thought through what happens to Courland when things next fall apart in the neighbourhood. I have only very vaguely thought through how things turn out for the rest of Eastern Europe and the Baltic, beyond considering what's plausible for each. I'll leave a mess behind, but which mess remains up in the air.

Without a Danish-Swedish War, Denmark is unlikely to become an absolute regime in 1660, of course an auto-coup could still happen but 1660 after the Swedish Wars was perfect in OTL. While some kind of centralization is unavoidable, we could end up with Denmark centralized under noble rule like England, instead of OTL absolutist centralization.
Without the Danish loss of Scania, the Danish state doesn’t get obsessed with Sweden, which means that Sweden doesn’t need to think a two front war into their plans all the time. This could either mean a greater focus on expansion in Europe or it could mean Sweden expand oversea instead.

Outside that Brandenburg having a greater focus on expansion into Poland is likely a major foreign policy change and I expect the Hohenzollern will do their best to try becoming Grand Duke of Lithuania, and a Lithuanian-Brandenburg union also makes a lot of sense. Of course ironic that would make a Swedish-Russian-Polish alliance likely.

On to researching better and worse mid-17th-century European roads. Seems roads built by ancient Romans are still best-of-breed for the most part. Anyone with historical engineering knowledge on this, kindly hit me up.

Early modern Europeans used dirt roads, the shift away from dirt road was pretty gradual with the rise of cheap oil in the late 19th century, with the dirt road simply being covered in oil, slowly the more volatile oils which could be used as fuel was removed from the mix until we reached the modern asphalt. Of course some moved away from this, interbellum Germany and later East Germany were famous for their concrete roads. But honestly early modern European states preferred to make canals if they had to use resources on transport.

[1] Sweden proper wasn’t really taxed and the Finns mostly paid their taxes in soldiers. So Livonia, Estonia, Bremen-Verden, Hither Pomerania and later Scania was the main sources of the Swedish state budget.

 

[traminer]

Yes, but it’s unlikely to happen, but on the other hand Sweden have a lot less interest in attacking Poland, while Sweden likely still wish for control over the Vistula trade and Courland, Poland is no potential threat any longer. Livonia gave Sweden half its state budget [1]. So Sweden have a greater interest in pushing the Russian out of Latgalia. Of course with no Swedish-Polish War OTL Dano-Swedish War is also avoided unless Sweden turn on Russia instead and Denmark join the Russians. But it also mean no Dutch conquest of New Sweden, which means New Sweden will stay around until it end up on the wrong side of a war with the Dutch or English. Of course beside getting rid of the Russians in Latgalia, Courland is clearly the other major Swedish foreign policy goal.

This and your additional comments below will guide a little reading up I'll be doing to guide the next arc of troubles. I can see plausible conflicts between Sweden and Denmark that resemble perhaps half of what happened OTL, but Swedish armies marching from Poland to Denmark is certainly less likely. Thanks for reminding me I'll be needing to think through Danish implications. Your New Sweden butterfly there... I'll just say I'm grateful you're reading. I would not likely have spotted that at all.
And you're right that I've added the list of ways Courland can be wiped off the map. Feels almost like a came of Clue: was it Sweden with the Naval Strike from Götland? Or Russia with the Overland Campaign across the Düna?

Outside that Brandenburg having a greater focus on expansion into Poland is likely a major foreign policy change and I expect the Hohenzollern will do their best to try becoming Grand Duke of Lithuania, and a Lithuanian-Brandenburg union also makes a lot of sense. Of course ironic that would make a Swedish-Russian-Polish alliance likely.

I've sown enough seeds for it to be no spoiler for anyone that Poland's embrace of Catholicism is to be earlier and tighter. Lithuania and Ruthenia, by pairing up, are pulling away from Catholic influence, and will have to strike their own balance of Protestantism and Orthodox Christianity. Their relationship with the Ottomans could go so many ways. But as it won't be an area of focus for me, I'll chart a plausible and not-too-ambitious path for them. Longer-term, I only need a buffer between Russia and non-Baltic Europe. Lithuania and Ruthenia can be that without having to change too much more history around them.

Early modern Europeans used dirt roads, the shift away from dirt road was pretty gradual with the rise of cheap oil in the late 19th century, with the dirt road simply being covered in oil, slowly the more volatile oils which could be used as fuel was removed from the mix until we reached the modern asphalt. Of course some moved away from this, interbellum Germany and later East Germany were famous for their concrete roads. But honestly early modern European states preferred to make canals if they had to use resources on transport.

I've been finding the same. I had thought to have best-of-breed road works amplifying Russia-Courland trade. A canal may be more plausible. Neither is truly necessary. We shall see.

[1] Sweden proper wasn’t really taxed and the Finns mostly paid their taxes in soldiers. So Livonia, Estonia, Bremen-Verden, Hither Pomerania and later Scania was the main sources of the Swedish state budget.

Thanks - following the money is never a bad idea.

 

[Jürgen]

This and your additional comments below will guide a little reading up I'll be doing to guide the next arc of troubles. I can see plausible conflicts between Sweden and Denmark that resemble perhaps half of what happened OTL, but Swedish armies marching from Poland to Denmark is certainly less likely.

More important if it happens some other years, the Danish belts are unlikely to frozen enough to walk an army across. So even if Denmark is defeated the defeat will much smaller (likely meaning a permanent loss of Halland and Denmark having to recognize the independence of Gottorp).

Thanks for reminding me I'll be needing to think through Danish implications. Your New Sweden butterfly there... I'll just say I'm grateful you're reading. I would not likely have spotted that at all.

Yes, even if conquered later, a decade or two of Swedish continued rule would result in more settler and more natural growth of the existing population, which would affect the region later. Even in OTL the population stayed Swedish speaking into the mid 18th century.

And you're right that I've added the list of ways Courland can be wiped off the map. Feels almost like a came of Clue: was it Sweden with the Naval Strike from Götland? Or Russia with the Overland Campaign across the Düna?

I could see a Russian invasion and then Sweden intervening to throw the Russians out, but then the Swedes simply force the Courlandic estates to elect the Swedish king as duke. He recognize the Polish king as his liege in Courland (not much the Poles can do about it, and honestly it doesn’t matter) and then the Kettlers ends up in exile.

I've sown enough seeds for it to be no spoiler for anyone that Poland's embrace of Catholicism is to be earlier and tighter. Lithuania and Ruthenia, by pairing up, are pulling away from Catholic influence, and will have to strike their own balance of Protestantism and Orthodox Christianity.

I think Transylvania could serve as a good model, through an interesting aspect would be the Lithuanian Jews. In OTL Jews to large extent filled the burgher niche in the Commonwealth replacing the Germans who had dominated it before in Poland (and stayed dominant in Royal Prussia and Warmia) . This made a lot of sense as the Lutheran Germans was seen as a Fifth Column for foreign Protestant powers, while the Jews didn’t have any foreign backers and depended on the protection of the nobility against the peasantry, which hated them,

Here both the Protestant Grand Duke and the Lithuanian nobility have an interest in expanding the Protestant population. While the Jews is neither a net positive or negative for them. So I could see Lithuania opening up for establishment of Protestant settlements, primarily towns with market town privileges and manufacturing. Early on I think most settlers will be Lutheran German who settles in Lithuania, through likely also some Reformed, Mennonites (mostly agrarian settlers), and Old Catholics (early on mostly Dutch later also French and Belgians). Later I could see a large number of Huguenots settle in Ruthenia. The result could be mostly German speaking urban minorities in Lithuania and Belarus, while Lithuanian Ukraine have mostly French speaking urban minorities. Of course it also raise the question of what language the Lithunian and Ruthenian nobility speak, in OTL they ended up mostly Polish speaking, but honestly it’s hard to imagine they will stay Polish speakers with the religious split from the Polish nobility.

In Poland on the other hand the king have a interest in develop towns too, but he can’t afford inviting Protestant in, so instead we could see much of the Jewish population of Lithuania being invited into Poland, and the Polish towns being dominated by Jews,

Their relationship with the Ottomans could go so many ways. But as it won't be an area of focus for me, I'll chart a plausible and not-too-ambitious path for them. Longer-term, I only need a buffer between Russia and non-Baltic Europe. Lithuania and Ruthenia can be that without having to change too much more history around them.

Honestly, I expect the main focus of the Grand Duke will be to conquer the Crimean Khanate and gain control over Moldova and Transylvania. Of course if the Hohenzollern gain power, we will see a shift to focusing on conflict with Poland and to lesser extent Sweden.

I've been finding the same. I had thought to have best-of-breed road works amplifying Russia-Courland trade. A canal may be more plausible. Neither is truly necessary. We shall see.

Dirt roads are fine, the geography of the region (mostly flat land) means that there’s little use in making expensive roads. Canals on the other hand
makes a lot of sense, rivers and canals are fundamental railroads, they can move vast amount of goods cheaply.

Thanks - following the money is never a bad idea.

Yes, the major reason Sweden never regained former glory after their loss in the Great Northern War were the loss of much of the Swedish tax base and the increase “liberties” which allowed the Swedish nobility to veto attempt by the state of getting the money from them.

 

[Sceonn]

I guess a rush for fortification and their gunpowder-canon industry will be ever more important to Courland. They certainly aren't competing with anyone on manpower.

 

[traminer]

I guess a rush for fortification and their gunpowder-canon industry will be ever more important to Courland. They certainly aren't competing with anyone on manpower.

I’ve tried to think that option through, and however I play with it, it feels like a Couronian Maginot Line.

The Düna is a nice natural border, now mostly with Russia.
But two towns are not on the wrong side of it. Ford that river, and its easy terrain for rolling Semigallia overland.

Sweden, on the other hand, already has Riga and some land a fair ways upstream of Riga (vaguely halfway to Kreuzburg mentioned above). And Riga is gloriously connected by river routes, roads, and sea. It’s also the major population centre in the area. If Sweden attacks *from Riga*, their capacity for resupply is formidable and close at hand. If the Düna is Courland and Semigallia’s moat, Riga is already astride that moat.

 

[traminer]

Anyone want to hazard a guess at where or what "Fernau" is yet?

 

[Jürgen]

Anyone want to hazard a guess at where or what "Fernau" is yet?

It’s a small steam in Schleswig-Holstein east of Kiel and north of Schönberg near the coast, at the time it was part of some Holsteinian knightly family’s possession and was likely part of a wetland.

 

[chipsy_21]

Anyone want to hazard a guess at where or what "Fernau" is yet?

Probably trinidad? My guess would be a combination of „fern“(distant) and „Au“/„Aue“(a small island)

 

[traminer]

In the Name of Three Martins

Christiaan had not been in Courland long, but was already developing a taste for the balancing act that was the Duchy of Courland and Semigallia. It was evident even in the name of this college his father was to be rector of. Martin Maritime Academy. Named for three different Martins. A speech was being delivered about each one of them in turn, up on the stage. His father, the rector, was introducing men who spoke of each of them. His father greeted people in Dutch, then spoke in German. Most of what was said was in German, though sometimes a few consecutive words of Polish, Latvian, or Lithuanian crept in. Something that might have been Finnish or something towards Finnish came was said at some point. Maybe it was mangled. Maybe Christiaan wasn't standing close enough. Maybe not standing too close was better.

The first, of course, was Martin Luther. That speech had been delivered in German, by a Baltic German - a Courland noble, he thought. From Christiaan's experience in fencing, he saw this as a poke in the eye of Poland. You are the vassal of a rather enthusiastically Catholic regime? Name a college after Protestantism's greatest banner man. They'll surely love that.
It was just one example of religious balance in the small country. Duke Jakob openly admitted that Courland's version of religious freedom was the result of spontaneous decision and not careful forethought. But now it had taken in so much of the Jewish population of Ruthenia and was starting to absorb many from Lithuania too - those nervous about the balance of power with the Ruthenian Cossacks, who had killed so many Ruthenian Jews. Old Believers had been trickling into Semigallia from Russia before. But now Russia was a mere river crossing from most of Semigallia and a breath away from Kreutzburg and Dünaburg. And now Russia was rather ominously active in Inflanty. Old Believers were coming in greater numbers now, via more varied paths.

The second Martin was a rather older one. St Martin of Braga. It was almost sarcastic to reference him, having first referenced Martin Luther. It might be seen as even more sarcastic to have a Jew give the speech about him. Whoever it was - Christiaan didn't catch the speaker's name - he greeted the crowd in what was probably Yiddish or Hebrew, then spoke in fluent but accented German. Martin of Braga literally wrote the book on religious tolerance, or at least among the earliest books on religious tolerance. It was De correctione rusticorum, all the way back in the 6th century. The Kurs that gave Courland its name might not have even advanced to the point of burying their chiefs with live horses yet at that point. Or maybe that was another of the local peoples. Christiaan had more learning to do on that front. Besides fencing, his education thus far had included rhetoric, mathematics, geography, languages and history. But Latvian was not among the languages he'd already picked up. Martin transforming to Mārtiņa... declensions and cases seemed to get messier and stranger the further East one travelled. Perhaps, were one to travel Westward, one might find a land with a language of optimal simplicity and purity. A ridiculous thought, but positing it and savaging it in the span of half a breath was what his learning in rhetoric had been for, he supposed.

The scope of this university was also a compromise. It called itself an Academy, on par with some other great places of learning, but not blustering its way to any grander title. Perhaps that appeased Poland a little, just as referencing the second Martin's name apologized for the first. "Maritime" meant a compromise on curriculum. There would not be faculty for everything one might learn at the Kraków Academy, or in Leipzig or Prague. Perhaps less rhetoric for Christiaan now. But more mathematics, and applied to fields like Navigation, Geography, Astronomy. Why? Because if you asked Duke Jakob Kettler to compromise on an ambition he held, his father had told him, Duke Jakob would take away three of whatever couldn't hold his interest and add twice as much of whatever could.

He looked around the square in Libau - not quite a square in truth, as one side was open to the harbour. This was probably the heartland of the Kurs, centuries ago. They'd mixed geographically with Livs and Latvians and more since, but the place was still Kur-land. And today's crowd had Kurs, Livs and Latvians amidst the burghers, shipwrights, merchants and Academy teachers and students - it seemed Duke Jakob had made ensured a full crowd for this occasion by pausing work at the shipyard and various other local industries and having their masters and serfs come here for an hour. It might have been to not have to shout over more harbour sounds. But from what he'd seen and heard of this duke so far, it probably served more than one purpose. Whatever bakery had supplied the sweet buns would certainly be doing good business after this event.
A half-century ago this town was small, and poor, and forgettable to anyone not living nearby. Now it had a formidable shipyard, a formidable synagogue, various growing industries, all interconnected. Every venture that was keeping this growing populace busy was one that could be improved by a Maritime Academy. And if so, the Maritime Academy would be fed, quite deliberately, with tantalizing problems to solve.

Christiaan knew he and his brother were here because his father had agreed to be the Academy's first rector. Still, his father said he'd accepted the post partly out of what challenges Courland's ambition might offer for his sons' keen minds.

Up on the makeshift stage - you could tell it was made by carpenters used to building ships - his father's voice grabbed his attention, as a parent's voice does. He spoke in German, having not learned enough Latvian yet.

"Men and women of Libau, visitors from across Courland and Semigallia, students of this academy - I introduce to you your Duke, Jakob Kettler."

A fairly informal introduction for the occasion, Christiaan thought. Maybe if this were the first university on the Baltic instead of the third or fourth (does Copenhagen count, he wondered? Uppsala shouldn't, should it?), then maybe they'd have more formality and even more Baltic languages included for pleasantries and politics.

When the Duke spoke, it fit the pattern of the other speakers: German with a side of Latvian and Dutch for his new rector.
"Paldies visiem. And you, Sir Constantijn, jij ook bedankt! Welcome, all, to your Academy." The crowd knew when to cheer. Or perhaps: the bakery workers and their friends knew when to toss out more sweet buns. "Here Courland will welcome the world, embrace it, learn from it, and from here we will venture forth into the world with knowledge, skill, and boldness. I now present to you the third Martin who has given this academy its name." He turned away, and was for a moment out of Christiaan's view as he descended a stair or two. "Libau, I present to you my son and heir, Mārtiņš Kettler." Some in the crowd heard that "š" and cheered for it more than anything they heard before it, and those folk had been the loudest cheering for the sweet buns, too.

Young Martin, age 3, did not cry. Neither as he was held up, nor as the crowd erupted into cheers.

"Libau, I apologize for not introducing you to my son before now. Do forgive me - we have been saving his first visit here for this very occasion. Our Sir Constantijn needed time to be convinced to take this job." He set his son down. "Martin, would you pull that rope, please?"

Martin Kettler toddled over to a rope, hanging from the side of the new college building. He pulled. The first pull wasn't quite strong enough, and the crowd chuckled as the boy looked up to the other end of the rope.

Little Martin pulled again.

With that, a flag unfurled. It was divided in four quarters. Clockwise, from top left, it showed: a black crayfish on a raspberry red field - the naval flag of Courland; the Libau emblem of a red lion with a split tail supporting a linden tree; a man-o-war on a navy field, itself flying the black crayfish flag; and lastly a telescope, book and sextant, each in gold, on a field of black. Christiaan thought this would look all better as a crest than a flag.

Somewhere in this town, tonight, men would be drinking as they listened to songs of that Libau lion, and to stories of what ships flying that raspberry red flag with the black crayfish were up to. If Christiaan would be hearing those, his own thoughts might be cast towards how the sextants, telescopes, and books were involved.


- - -
With enthusiastic thanks to @Jürgen , whose gentle correction on language prompted a few edits to this post, as discussed 4 and 5 posts below this.

 

[traminer]

**EDIT: Wow! About 4 times the hits on this entry since I wrote it last year. And now, in 2010, still hits. My readers sure love their Courland and Semigallia stuff. Since the hits keep on coming, here's a quick summary of my previous entry on Baltic trade in the mid-17th - since, doing the math, at least 85% of you seeing this entry haven't read that one - shame on you. Basically, everyone around the Baltic has the same tax problem. The Poland, Lithuania and Ruthenia, Sweden, Courland and Semigallia: everyone's crap at getting their people to pay taxes. Why? All nobles are notionally equal. So one, even the king, can't tax any others without their consent. Such consent is obviously not a consistent thing. Result: Poland can't fund an army to save its life. Ditto Lithuania, though they got better after Trakai. Sweden has to take over neighbours to take their shit and tax them for making more shit. Russia... let's skip recapping Russia, because not Baltic (yet). Good enough excuse.
Original post follows below:

Ok, soooo much going on. Duke Jakob's industrializing the heck out of everything. Courland's inserting itself into every possible trade network, and trying to do so on the global scale. Let's look at this outside-in, then inside-out.

Outside-in: a couple centuries prior, the Portuguese nudged their way around Africa, working out where the gold was, how neighbours beat each other up and either put them to drudge work or sold them off, especially as the Portuguese kept (a) dying from tropical diseases (if you thought the Europeans infecting the Americas into population collapse was interesting, how about Europeans showing up in tropical Africa and dying at a 25 to 75 per cent per annum clip while trying to make a buck) and needing to recruit new labourers, and (b) making money hand over fist by trading stuff that was cheap in Europe for gold, which was very not cheap in Europe, and (c) discovering that the hoped-for Kingdom of Prester John was, in fact, not a thing.

Ok, that thought meandered. But Portugal figured out gold-centred triangle trade, and plantations, etc. Have gold, buy ships and crews, send ships and crews to get more gold and slaves, get slaves to do labour in terrifying ways and with increasing efficiency growing exotic things, then selling exotic things back in Europe and investing the gold along with the profits.

In the early days, gold was seen as key to that, and other European nations sent their own ships out looking for their own sources out there. Spain rolled the Incas and Aztecs and pretty much anyone else via Guns, Germs and Steel (awesome book - read it!). The Dutch set themselves up wherever they could in the Indian and Atlantic oceans, the English and Scots stalled in their squabbles but eventually set to doing the same. Sweden and Denmark and even Malta got in some of the game.

And Courland, of course. Some of the bigs figured gold was the key thing. Courland figured the cycle was the key thing. The logic wasn't that novel, the difference was that Courland (maybe Malta too? use the web form below if you want a colonial Malta post!) started the game with a lack of wealth, and just set to getting the triangle trade adding wealth by sheer volume of ship traffic. It worked, a bit. They got wealthier from it, though probably less than they did from fantastic investment, generation, and reinvestment of wealth back home (at least before the sense of "home" blew up).

Courland was a node on a global network. And on that scale, it was less noteworthy for how much of a node it was and more for how much network traffic it generated. Nobody that small should have ever become a sea power.

Inside-out, then: rapid growth and diversification of the economy had all kinds of fun effects. Instead of setting up in his Uncle's capital in Mitau, he set up in his father's in Goldingen. That made Goldingen a political hub, even though Mitau was one still. And with Louise Charlotte's great garden there, Goldingen was gaining influence as a centre for learning about botany and even early pharmacology. The Maritime Academy in Libau drew so much learning to Westernmost Courland, but also tuned the industries around there: glassmaking for telescopes and other optics became more experimental and efficient there than anywhere else on the Baltic. (The Dutch doubled down on nicknaming Jakob "the skipper duke.") Innovations in shipbuilding tend to be slow or lurching, but it quickly became the case that Libau ships became the ambitious ones, while Windau made the tried-and-true ones.

Even outside these major centres Courland was investing and growing. Dams and watermills popped up in even small towns like Tuckum, and routes - let's not call them "roads" and raise modern expectations - appeared or grew between towns, getting Tuckum's flour and copper to Mitau, for example, and bringing back all the things bigger Mitau had for Tuckum.

But good fences make good neighbours, they say. And Courland (Semigallia, really) was now neighbours with Russia, and held two towns on the Russian side of their river border. The main artery of trade here was the river itself (the Daugava, we call it now), especially from Lithuania on down to Riga and then the Baltic. Courland had the lions' share of boat traffic up and down the river. Jakob's version of "good fences" was called "money" - the new border should be treated as an opportunity for trade (like everything else). And so Kreutzburg needed a bridge. In that integrated, Courland way, it played out like this: students from Martin Maritime Academy were invited to come survey, sketch and paint potential crossing points into Kreuzburg. Prizes for best painting with and without a bridge. Then, they were invited to propose designs and plans to build them. More prizes for fastest-to-build, most-financially-sound, and best overall. And prizes for best miniature version. Some lucky winner would get a contract to build the actual bridge, second place would be invited to build another bridge elsewhere in the Duchy.

Bridges. Take. Time. But building a bridge, literally, is also building a bridge, figuratively, to whoever's on the other side. Making Kreuzburg into a trade node to connect Russia with Semigallia might not divert too much trade from Riga, but surely some. Success on that front, yay Courland. The more Russia and Sweden gave each other the side-eye, the more Russia was happy to pay Courland duties rather than Riga or Livonia duties. As a bonus, boat traffic passing under a bridge is more easily controlled or taxed than boat traffic where a bridge is lacking.

So guess which emerging new trade route ended up being the most important? Just one more way Jakob scored in trade and paved the way - almost literally - to his downfall. But still, trade! (Why else would Courland get its own Baltic trade entry in the blog?)

 

[Sceonn]

Netherlands of the East, Courland is developing interestingly.

Just one more way Jakob scored in trade and paved the way - almost literally - to his downfall.

Ominous, guess it was too juicy a prize. Hope they can retain some level of autonomy to keep the place interesting.

 

[traminer]

Ominous, guess it was too juicy a prize. Hope they can retain some level of autonomy to keep the place interesting.

When I first framed this timeline in my mind, and thought I had a story worth telling, it was with the point of departure placed in 1658.

Then I realized it would be both unconvincing and less interesting for 1658 to turn out differently without other factors nudged this or that way first.

But I am sticking to the vision of my first post in the thread: we will see Jakob’s strengths and weaknesses both have greater effect in TTL Courland and Semigallia.

So, Courland made itself a prize OTL - or at least presence, since only so much of what has been invested in can be looted or kept going by others. TTL, it has more population, trade, industry and reputation. I don’t think I’ve given Courland either more influence or ambition, only greater means to fulfill the ambitions that were already there. (Admittedly the Academy above is conjecture on my part - it seems a logical extra thing for an accelerated Courland to consider adding.)

All this makes me realize a post on Courland’s quasi-neutrality - also much similar to OTL - is due.

 

[Jürgen]

When I first framed this timeline in my mind, and thought I had a story worth telling, it was with the point of departure placed in 1658.

Then I realized it would be both unconvincing and less interesting for 1658 to turn out differently without other factors nudged this or that way first.

But I am sticking to the vision of my first post in the thread: we will see Jakob’s strengths and weaknesses both have greater effect in TTL Courland and Semigallia.

So, Courland made itself a prize OTL - or at least presence, since only so much of what has been invested in can be looted or kept going by others. TTL, it has more population, trade, industry and reputation. I don’t think I’ve given Courland either more influence or ambition, only greater means to fulfill the ambitions that were already there. (Admittedly the Academy above is conjecture on my part - it seems a logical extra thing for an accelerated Courland to consider adding.)

All this makes me realize a post on Courland’s quasi-neutrality - also much similar to OTL - is due.

One thing, you have Jakob speaking Latvian to the townsfolk, but while he understand and speak Latvian, every burgher, noble and most free peasants are German speakers. There’s likely some context where he can use Latvian but here I doubt it will make much sense, even the L1 Latvian speakers among the listeners (people born as unfree peasants or among free Latvian speaking peasants) will almost certainly have shifted language to German with their social rise. Even the clergy were mostly Germans, through they did speak and preach in Latvian.

 

[traminer]

while he understand and speak Latvian, every burgher, noble and most free peasants are German speakers. There’s likely some context where he can use Latvian but here I doubt it will make much sense, even the L1 Latvian speakers among the listeners (people born as unfree peasants or among free Latvian speaking peasants) will almost certainly have shifted language to German with their social rise. Even the clergy were mostly Germans, through they did speak and preach in Latvian.

You have it right.

I will do two little edits in the original post later today. One will shift more of what he says to German, the second will clarify that the crowd was padded by having serfs and servants present - to have as many people as possible celebrating the occasion.

- - -

UPDATE: the edit is applied. And writer me couldn’t help but add a little more colour. Thanks to Jürgen are given in the original post above, and I’ll give them again here, though without tagging this time. Thanks!

 

[traminer]

My lord Jakob,
I write this at the end of Summer, 1645, in Lisbon. Today I met with your man in Lisbon. He will see this gets to you. These notes are mostly drawn from our logs.

We sailed west-by-southwest from Trinidad. This sailing was against the current and not fast. We passed the guianas sailing toward and away from the shore. This was not tacking. We wanted to find places where winds and currents changed. A gentle eastward current we found farther out. We sailed more zig and zag to find westward currents both north and south of this. This was somewhat north of the equator. We turned south of this current in search of another southward one. The westward currents pushed us hard in the search. We reached and paused at an island called Francisco de Noronha. The Portuguese grow much there and gather goods from the continent to ship back to Europe. South of there we found our southward current. We saw the shore on and off. We sailed zig and zag again to test current we rode on. Our current turned to the east and got colder. We think cold water joined it from the south. We followed where it led. The maps we came with told us nothing. May our charts bring you much value. At around 36 degrees south we woke to see what may have been an island in the distance, but it was already behind us. We stayed with our current. It was wide and we sailed zig and zag again but not crossing its full breadth. We wanted to find its inner edge. The winds were strong, steady and helpful. With our maps and measurements and guesswork we reached and stopped at the island the Portuguese named Saint Helena. My lord, you asked for recommendations of places either to grow goods of value, to trade things of value, or to make a beautiful garden. The winds and currents make Saint Helena a fine place to trade with ships from India and its ocean. It seems not a place for growing goods. I am a poor judge of gardens. You could place flowers there but I know not what else would grow. A colony there could feed itself but perhaps not with a notable surplus.

After Saint Helena. We were confident a westward current could return us to Noronha or Trinidad and Tobago. It may have been the same current we zagged into before turning south. With naught but ocean west of us it felt certain. Currents and winds aligned. Travel from Saint Helena to Tobago should be an easy matter. Another captain can test. We sailed north with helpful winds in search of the thin eastward current we found east of the guianas. This time we zigged to the landward side and reached the Portuguese Gold Coast. Currents are confused and weaker near the coast. We paused at El Mina and sailed west keeping near the coast until it turned south. We put in at three islands our maps called Fernando Po, Santo Antonio or Principe, and then San Tomé. These islands were all in a straight line south by southwest from a massive mountain on the coast of the continent. You might just see each from the next on a clear day. We did not have such a clear day. The south faces of these islands have such rain as can not be believed. The north sides seem drier. Our charts made notes of weather and mountains. Principe and San Tomé are busy with Portuguese activity. The island nearer the coast they seem to have abandoned to natives and former slaves. If you have good relations with Portugal, you could put gardens or plantations there. Being close to the continent could help trade or could bring danger if the native peoples come by boat. That may be why Portugal left it. I do not know. We took on some natives of that island, including three who spoke Portuguese and claimed to have Portuguese fathers. They could understand some languages spoken from there to perhaps El Mina.

After the islands we returned homeward. We paused again at El Mina and found ships from Denmark and Sweden and the Netherlands there or nearby too. All seek their own forts and trade. We kept to or near the coast and passed the Saint Paul river, the Geba, and the Casamance. At the Gambia we turned to explore the river mouth. Two islands we found matching your interests. One at the river's mouth might meet all trade heading inland. It is low and flat and the sort of river mouth land to be loose its shape to flood without trees to hold it in. A second smaller island lies upriver after it widens toward the south, narrows again then turns. Halfway up this turn is a small island a little nearer the right bank than the left. It would be a poor garden and an insignificant plantation. But it would be a formidable fort to command trade upriver. We met with a local chief or king and offered to pay to lease it. He was agreeable. He will watch for a ship to return with the black crayfish flying.

From there, we sailed the Volta do mar to the Azores and back to Portugal. Our crew are only a little ragged, and scurvy has not hit us too hard. We all welcome a little leave in Lisbon.
I reported to your man in Lisbon all the above and more according to his questions. He has kept the Portuguese-speaking natives of Fernando Po for future use. The rest we will bring to Tobago with along with new provisions for that colony.

Kapitan LUD SELLIN

post scriptum
I am sorry the Gambia islands do not seem to make for good gardens when they are good for so much else

 

[traminer]

The Evolution or Elimination of the Liberum Veto

Jan Bileski came that day
Heard things he thought weren't okay
Raised his hand to loudly say
"Nie Pozwalam!" to the fray

They asked Jan to hear them out
"Let's hear what you object about!
Then we'll all agree, without
Whatever words have made you shout!"

All the szlachta looked around -
listened for a voice or sound
All law-making ran aground
Jan Bilesky was not found.

Jan Bilesky came that day
Heard things he thought weren't okay
Fought a law the Polish way
Then mounted up and rode away.

-the Ballad of Jan Bilesky, 17th century

"Szlachta of Poland, the day is coming when we shall have to choose between keeping our Liberum Veto and keeping our country intact. I say this because today we are to discuss taxation, as the crown needs revenues."

This was said by the Polish regent, Jerzy Ossoliński, before the Sejm had even begun. The word "taxation" was the one that started the murmuring.

"I say this now, because if any man among you is to use their veto to bring proceedings to a halt before we have conducted business vital to the kingdom, I will expect that veto discussed and resolved. There will be no wild flights like Bilensky in the spring. I have forbidden the stables to release any of your horses from their care without my explicit permission. Should any man who calls out his veto and does not offer us all the chance to resolve the matter and resume our Sejm, this will be my answer: one whoever voiced the veto has left, and anyone agreeing with him has left, I shall invite all the remaining szlachta to be the new szlachta of Poland, and resume business without any departed szlachta formerly of Poland. I will be sure to insist that among the matters discussed in this hypothetical second Sejm, we shall discuss whether the districts of those departed szlachta shall continue to remain part of Poland, or be treated as vassals of Poland, or be given to one of our existing vassals in Prussia or Courland. We will also surely then discuss precisely how generously any new vassalage agreements will be expected to remunerate the crown of Poland."

The following silence felt rather louder than the preceding murmuring.

"Are we ready to enter the hall, then?"

- - -

The Grand Duchy of Lithuania and Ruthenia was not yet fully in rhythm when it came to the logistics of its own Sejms, independent of Poland. So their new Grand Duke simply invited the realm's nobles (the Cossacks never wanted the word szlachta used again, one of a few minor growing pains of the new pairing) to the largest room in the Trakai island castle. Grand Duke Sigismund Rákóczi agreed with the Cossacks that the new union should not default to resembling the old. The Lithuanians did not object. And so Trakai again became the royal residence. It might indeed be well on its way to displacing Vilnius as capital. At least it was still in Lithuania proper, thought the traditionalists on the Lithuanian side.

But some breaks from tradition were unexpected. The nobles most certainly not expect to enter the hall and find their grand duke sitting restlessly on his throne, bouncing a crossbow on his knee.

"Sit, sit, friends. I have been studying the history of your principle of the equality of all men of noble rank. And of your notional veto, and of what good and bad might come of it. And then I have been studying how things unfold in the larger nations of Europe that lack this same principle of equality among nobles. France, for one! Portugal, for two! Maybe Turkey, for three! And I conclude these things can only work if they are paid for. I know some of you already agree."

The Grand Duke's eyes glittered. The bouncing crossbow gently suggested that interruptions were inadvisable. Only some were already sitting by now. Those still standing either moved more slowly towards chairs, or remained still.

"I have also been studying, yes, studying... the use of this field crossbow you see upon my lap just now. That I have the crossbow on my lap rather than a book of law or history may tell you which study is the more interesting."

There was no longer anyone moving for the chairs.

"Friends, I say to you that we are all equal as men. And yet, a Grand Duke has greater responsibility... grander responsibility. He must have greater means... grander means. You as the nobles of Lithuania and Ruthenia will tax your districts. You will keep two thirds of what you tax for your own districts and yourselves. You raise regiments and pay them from your funds. The remaining third you give to the crown. From that I raise more regiments and armies and see that none of your districts becomes Russian or Turkish or Swedish. And I invest for the realms."

"The one-third among you whose taxes most enrich the crown shall be allowed to exercise their right to some form of veto. I will listen to these men, often. The two-thirds whose taxes least enrich the crown shall be aided to improve their revenues through such investments as the crown agrees are merited. Or sometimes not. Their actions will give me reasons. I will hear these other men, as merited."

The silence that followed was long enough that those gathered began to look, somewhat sideways, at each other... while no one stopped facing the throne.

"Is anything unclear? Is anything objectionable?"

It took a few breaths, but Bohdan Khmelmytsky himself spoke. "We have not yet begun to collect such taxes. Who will you listen to today? Who will be entitled to any veto today?"

"Dear Bohdan - anyone, of course! We are all equals as men, and in this Sejm we are all of equal standing."
Several men sighed, as though in harmony. Perhaps solidarity.

"Only..."
The sighs were cut short. Sigismund whistled the melody to the Ballad of Jan Bilesky, a song only months old, but already familiar to all. He strummed his right hand across the crossbow, as though playing a lute.

"Only there is the matter of what strength we wish the Grand Duchy to have. And what strength is sufficient for me to wish to remain as your Grand Duke. Therefore... for today, and only today, when we are gathered without taxes tallied, I will manage the veto differently. Should any man here call out his veto, I shall shoot him with this crossbow. After that, the veto wielder shall be dead, and because the rest of us are all equal as men, you shall perhaps arrest me for murder, and shall perhaps decide to remove me as Grand Duke. Or, perhaps... not? Hmm.... Well, if you do remove me, it will be for the best, as you will have shown me you have no intention of allowing necessary improvements to your Grand Duchy's governance. And I will want no part of leading it without such improvements."

 

[Sceonn]

Quite the double butterfly.