"The Commonwealth of Britain" - Republican UK Wikibox TL

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London had been ruled by Premier Sadiq Khan and First Minister Jeremy Corbyn since 2014, the latter winning a surprise victory in the London Labour Leadership election of 2014. Khan and Corbyn had a rocky relationship and the London Labour Party was sharply divided. Despite this, Khan was a popular Premier, investing in cheap transport and reducing house prices, Khan won an impressive 35% of the vote in a nine-way race and then won a solid majority in the second round with 62% of the vote.

For the Conservatives, the campaign was a disaster. Their candidate, Shaun Bailey had served as an advisor to President Howard on crime before being elected to Parliament in 2014. Bailey's campaign was gaffe filled, accused of Islamaphobia and Hinduphobia. Most notably Bailey alienated London's traditionally Conservative Hindu community by saying that South Asian communities were "crime-riddled cesspools". Bailey fell to 15% of the vote, one of the worst results for the Conservatives in the capital, coming dangerously close to not making it into the final round.

The Liberal Democrats nominated Deputy First Minister Caroline Pidgeon, who was known with for her seemingly constant clashes with First Minister Corbyn. As the most prominent woman in the race, Pidgeon's campaign focused on improving access to childcare and ensuring London's women could return to work. She put in a decent performance gaining a respectable 11% of the vote.

As for the middle candidates, the Brexit Alliance nominated Peter Whittle, a former UKIP Senator, Whittle focused his campaign on targetting the eurosceptic suburbs of outer London and opposing Heathrow expansion, considering London's liberal leanings Whittle did well, gaining 9% of the vote.

United for Change nominated Redbridge Mayor Mike Gapes. Gapes was one of the most experienced candidates in the field, having served as Mayor from 1999 to 2009 and then retaking the Mayoralty in 2014. Gapes based his campaign around attack Khan for his association to First Minister, gaining 7% of the vote.

MP Caroline Russell was put forward by the London Greens a transport and pedestrian safely campaigner, Russell based her campaign around making London safer for Pedestrians, pledging to Pedestrinaise Oxford Street, Regent Street and Soho. Russell was swept up in the Khan wave, only receiving 6% of the vote.

In regards to the minor candidates, UKIP Senator David Kurten and Women's Equality Party State Senator Sandi Toksvig received 6% of the vote, whilst former State Seator George Galloway's independent bid only got 5% of the vote.

"London Premier candidate Shaun Bailey has been criticised after arguing that increasing police numbers was "useless". It comes as Mr Bailey prepares to deliver a speech on violent crime in the capital on Wednesday, and gears up to take on Sadiq Khan. In recent weeks, Theresa May has made it a flagship policy of her campaign to increase police numbers by 30,000. During her speech, the Senate Opposition Leader said it was a priority of hers to make "streets safer". But Mr Bailey's previous comments were seized on by Labour, who claimed they were a "slap in the face to our police". In a 2005 publication, Mr Bailey wrote: "The police can't deal with the causes of the problem. To expect them to is one of the big myths in our world. Everyone talks about more policemen, useless. Anybody who knows anything about criminals will realise that they are not concerned with police, they never have been and never will be." He added: "The only way to cut crime or anti-social behaviour is to change people's attitudes." - Tory Premier candidate criticised after it emerged he said increasing police numbers 'useless' in deterring criminals, Ashley Cowburn, The Independent (2019)

 

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With an unpopular Prime Minister and the economy contracting, Labour activists were demoralised

“Months after winning Buckingham for a second time, a major new poll has found support for Labour is collapsing across the country. The latest study from YouGov of over 11,500 voters has given the Conservatives a lead in every English region apart from London, the North East and North West. The figures will come as a boost for the Conservatives, whose party now leads the polls in former Labour heartlands. The Conservative lead in the regions is driven by plummeting support for Emily Thornberry’s party, who have dropped 11 points since 2017 to 25%. Despite not having a Lead Candidate, the Conservatives are polling at 39%, a 14 point lead. The collapse in Labour's fortunes is surprising considering their victory a few short months ago. The figures also show a boost in support for the Lib Dems, whose merger with United for Change has driven up their poll numbers across the country. The party has secured an eight-point boost to 18%. Nigel Farage's Brexit Alliance meanwhile sits on 8%, a five-point decrease from its vote share in the 2019 Presidential Election.” - Major new poll finds support for Labour collapsing, John Johnstone, PoliticsHome (2019)

With the Government seeming to be constantly on the verge of collapse and Labour collapsing in the polls, the Conservatives decided they would get their house in order, recruitment for a replacement to the embattled Amber rudd began. The party’s national committee announced their leadership election would take place at the end of September. Nine candidates initially emerged; Anglian Premier Steve Barclay, South West First Minister Robert Buckland, Anglians MP Therese Coffey and Liz Truss, Former Education Secretary Michael Gove, Former International Development Secretary Jeremy Hunt, East Midlands MP Robert Jenrick, Deputy Parliamentary Leader Rishi Sunak and Barnet Mayor Theresa Villiers.

Gove's Presidental campaign had been a disaster, he wanted to repair his reputation

Many expected whoever led the Conservatives would take Downing Street, considering Labour’s dire polling. Every Tory MP with an ounce of ambition wanted to become the party’s lead candidate, leading to a huge field of nine candidates. This field would quickly narrow however, both Jenrick and Villiers, fairly unknown players, dropped out due to a lack of funds and support amongst the Conservative caucus. Coffey too was also forced to drop out after she was criticised for defending a Member of the Welsh Parliament who said people on the Channel 4 TV show “Benefits Street” should be “put down”. For those candidates who stayed in the race, they quickly found themselves overshadowed by the big beasts of the campaign.

Anglian Premier Steve Barclay was one of the drowned out candidates

“Sunak’s professional background is also uncommon for British politics. He had a distinguished career in investment banking before entering politics, despite his young age. Banking experience might seem “appropriate” for a Tory but it’s not a common background for British politicians. The position of Parliamentary Leader or Prime Minister is indeed often a stepping stone to the Presidency. But Sunak lacks an independent political base. Unless he is a political genius, it seems unlikely that he could become the next President. Yet, there is a different possible interpretation of these facts. Here is a politician who rose to the limelight very quickly. Colleagues admire his analytical ability. He was loyal to Amber Rudd – one might wonder why a Eurosceptic hawk-like him aligned with her. Importantly, too, he already seems to appeal across party lines. Sunak could be the man who will change British politics.” - Can the Tories’ bright young banker change British politics?, Lecture by Despina Alexiadou, University of Strathclyde (2019)

The two main candidates were Deputy Leader Rishi Sunak and Former Secretary Jeremy Hunt, with Former Secretary Michael Gove in a strong third. Despite serving as Rudd’s deputy, Sunak was seen as the change candidate, having been appointed as Deputy to balance the party as a eurosceptic from the right. If he won Sunak would be the first BAME Leader of a major party, aged 37, Sunak would be one of the party’s youngest leaders in history. Sunak called for a clear break from the tactics of Osborne and Rudd, saying that by tacking to the centre, the party lost support to UKIP and the Brexit Party, and reaped no benefits as the Liberal Democrats would always prefer Labour. Telegenic and popular, Sunak was a strong favourite.

Sunak called for a clean break with the Rudd era

For the Osbornite moderate faction, there was Jeremy Hunt, hot off a failed Presidential bid, Hunt made the opposite argument to Sunak, highlighting May’s poor performance amongst vote transfers and the party’s decline in traditionally Conservative areas, such as the more middle-class cities in the South East and London like Reading and Wandsworth. Hunt argued that with the Government on the verge of collapse, the Tories needed to work with the Liberal Democrats and the rump of United for Change to create a broad-church centre-right Government.

“Imagine for a moment that you’ve got a new job as the new Tory Leader's director of strategy, or chief of staff, or whatever title you like. Your brief is to plot a course to the victory of the Tory party at the next election. You’d immediately take a look at your political inheritance and conclude that you had a lot of problems, but two major assets. Firstly your party is still more trusted to manage the economy. Secondly, "generic Conservative" is, more often than not, preferred as Prime Minister to Emily Thornberry. Assuming that advantage continues for the next Leader, you keep a useful political advantage – and a not insignificant hope. When the polls have been wrong about voting intention, the beneficiary of the error has been the party that leads on leadership. The important thing about the question of “Who is the best Prime Minister?” is it is a comparative, not an absolute one. The judgement that voters will make about Sunak or Hunt is partly about how they feel about one candidate or another in a vacuum, but also about how they feel about the choice they are making.” - Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt’s political inheritances, Stephen Bush, New Statesman (2019)

Hunt argued he was the best qualifed candidate to become PM on day one

Gove ran as a compromise unity candidate, pointing to his experience in Government. However his detractors pointed towards his unpopularity amongst the country, and his disastrous Presidential campaign, during which he dropped out before the vote even took place. Whilst Gove had loyal followers across the Tory Party, most Conservative MPs were desperate to win and wanted to either play it safe with Hunt or take a risk with Sunak. Compared to those two, Gove might have been a compromise, but he was a bad compromise. As he travelled around Westminster trying to drum up support, he found most Conservative MPs giving him the cold shoulder.

South West First Minister Robert Buckland ran on his experience as a First Minister

The minor candidates struggled to make any headway. Robert Buckland was the only candidate who got any sort of media attention, pointing towards his multiple electoral success as South West First Minister, Barclay, on the other hand, languished in obscurity. Liz Truss had been expected to do well as the only woman in the race, but much of her support had been eaten up by Rishi Sunak and she was ostracised after posting a photo of women Conservatives alongside pro-Putin Russian Oligarch Lubov Chernukhin with the caption “#ladiesnight”. The major gaffe raised eyebrows in the intentional community and gave Labour an easy avenue of attack, essentially dooming Truss’ campaign.

As the campaign took place over a matter of weeks, not months there was little space or time for outsider candidates to breakthrough. Sunak and Hunt were locked in a pitched battle as the minor players fell to the wayside. Polls showed Hunt as narrowly ahead amongst Tory MPs, but through one good speech after another Sunak began to pull level with Hunt. Sunak’s big moment came when former President Michael Howard offered up his endorsement. Howard still held a place of esteem amongst many Tories as the only majorly successful post-Commonwealth Conservative politician, with Howard’s endorsement Sunak serged, the race was on a knife’s edge.

After a brutal race, the Conservatives met at their conference in Bradford to unveil their candidate for Prime Minister. The ballot of MPs had been closely guarded and most journalists predicted a toss-up. Eventually, the waiting was done, National Committee Chair Paul Scully announced Sunak had won with 52% of MPs to Hunt’s 48%. Sunak was the youngest major party leader in recent history, and he was the most right-wing Conservative Parliamentary Leader since David Davis led the caucus in 2005. With its new young charismatic leader at the helm, the Conservative Party was about to radically change, but not everyone in the party was happy.

“We can unite our country, we can unleash the potential of this whole country and take it forward. I said before. I had a campaign slogan which was to deliver a referendum, unite the country and defeat Emily Thornberry. I didn't say which order I was going to do it in. We will defeat Emily Thornberry, we are going to deliver a referendum and we are going to unite our country and take it forward. And we are going to energise our country. So thank you all very much. You deserve a massive, massive congratulations. I am not going to single out anybody in particular. But thank you CCHQ, everyone who volunteered, everybody who has worked together, all our troops around the whole country. You have done an amazing job and you should be proud of what you have achieved. So I hope you will allow yourself some brief celebration because the work is going to begin very shortly." - Rishi Sunak’s victory speech (2019)

“To what extent did Rishi Sunak’s leadership represent a clean break from the Amber Rudd era? (30 Marks)” - A-Level Politics Exam

 

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Toppled Prime Ministers invoked images of "The Thick of It"

“When politics blow up like this, being right in the thick of it is fascinating, frightening and surreal. I was a Chief of Staff to Harriet Harman from 2006 to 2016 and lived through some downs and then some. When a Prime Minister is in peril and there is talk of a leadership challenge or a coup, it’s amazing how quiet people go. You can tell something is up because of the eerie silence. All the frantic phone calls from other Cabinet Ministers and their advisers chasing you up on policy and legislation stop. You hear speculation about a coup and before you know it, your boss’s name is in the frame as a trouble maker. Your phone then starts going – it’s political journalists trying to get a line. The smart thing to do is not answer your phone at all because the truth is, you don’t know what’s going on.” - Panic, power plays and paranoia - what will be going on tonight behind the scenes at No. 10?, Ayesha Hazarika, The Telegraph (2019)

Sunak’s victory panicked the Labour establishment, with dire poll ratings and a recession looming over the horizon, the party moved with surprising brutality, someone would have to fall on their sword. A group of over 70 MPs, Senators and other senior politicians, led by Progressive Caucus Chair Stella Creasy wrote to Miliband and Thornberry, declaring no confidence in Thornberry’s leadership and demanding she resign. Amid the signatories were Yorkshire Premier Yvette Cooper and North East Premier Nick Brown, with rumours of Cabinet resignations and even possible defections, Miliband and Thornberry met with the dissenters at Buckingham. The meeting lasted just over an hour, Speaking outside Buckingham, Thornberry announced she would not be leading the party into the next election saying it was in the best interests of the party for her to stand down.

The Commonwealth's first woman Prime Minister was toppled in just two short years

Thornberry said she believed speculation about his leadership had become a "distraction" and she would be stepping down in May. Thornberry had served as Prime Minister for only two years, succeeding Ed Balls. The former London First Minister had faced open calls to quit from some of her own MPs for the better part of a year. Polls suggested Thornberry was unpopular even amongst Labour supporters and Thornberry's critics had questioned whether she was capable of turning the party's fortunes around. She said: "I have thought long and hard over the summer period about what the future brings. I have also considered what the speculation about my leadership does to our ability to get Labour's message across. This has become a distraction. It is in the best interests of the party and the country that I step aside as Prime Minister at the next election.

By announcing her resignation, Thornberry became the shortest-serving Prime Minister in Commonwealth history and opened up a possibly damaging leadership election mere months before the next Parliamentary Election. Whilst many Labour MPs had been unhappy with Thornberry’s leadership, many believed a resignation so close to election day was reckless, especially considering the rickety nature of the coalition. Famously Labour was much more hesitant to knife its own leaders then the Conservatives, perhaps after years in power as effectively the Commonwealth’s natural party of Government, the party had become more pragmatic, but also much more ruthless.

“Rachel Reeves has said the Labour party needs to use “ruthless” campaign tactics for election victory against Rishi Sunak. At a Labour Women's Forum event in Leeds, the former Justice Secretary said the next lead candidate had to “go toe to toe with the likes of Sunak and Farage''. She said this would involve establishing a media rebuttal unit and greater emphasis on digital campaigning. The Tories are targeting demographics – your hobbies, your income groups – we are just putting out nice memes and videos, and that’s not good enough. We have got to be ruthless, forensic, and we have got to fight back.” Reeves suggested a list of reforms designed to end the “gentleman’s club in Westminster''. Reeves' well-timed speech has fuelled further speculation that she is planning a leadership bid and a return to frontline politics after being sacked by Emily Thornberry in 2017.” - Labour must be ruthless to win next election, says Reeves, Aaron Walawalkar, The Guardian (2019)

Former Justice Secretary Rachel Reeves was seen as one of the frontrunners to replace Thornberry

Tensions at Westminster spread out across the seas after the wife of an American diplomat who was involved in a fatal car crash, claimed diplomatic immunity and fled to the US. The mother of a teenager killed in a car crash involving the wife of a US diplomat urged her "as a mum" to return to the Commonwealth for questioning. Harry Dunn, 19, died when his motorbike collided with a car near CAF Croughton in Northamptonshire. The diplomat's wife, who has diplomatic immunity, left the Commonwealth despite telling police that she had no plans to. Foreign Secretary Davey said he has urged the US to reconsider after the State Department refused to waive diplomatic immunity. "I have called the US ambassador to express the Commonwealth's disappointment with their decision," he said. Under the 1961 Vienna Convention, diplomats and their family members were immune from prosecution. But, their immunity could be waived by the state that has sent them - in this case, the US. East Midlands police said that the suspect "engaged fully" following the incident near CAF Croughton. The force is now exploring all opportunities to ensure that the investigation continues to progress."

The Trump administration's flat denial of the diplomatic spouse’s waiver and extradition was seen as another sign of the deteriorating special relationship in the Miliband/Trump era. The US calculated that protecting the woman was more important than retaining friendly ties with the Commonwealth. Despite protests by the Government, there was very little the Commonwealth could do if Trump didn’t want to play ball. The incident was seen as another example of Miliband’s “weakness” on the international stage. Brexit Party Senator Michelle Dewberry tweeted “this is what happens when you insult and belittle the leader of the free world for years on end. Make no mistake Labour is entirely to blame for the death of the special relationship.”

Trump was not in the mood to do any favours for the Miliband administration

“Brexit Party Senator Michelle Dewberry criticised President Miliband for snubbing a G7 photo with President Trump. Michelle Dewberry called for politicians to be more “professional”. The former Apprentice winner also referred to protests against the US President’s, claiming people need to “calm down”. Speaking on the BBC's Politics Live, Ms Dewberry said: “There’s one thing missing at the moment and its simple professionalism. I find what’s going on in politics embarrassing and I want politicians to be better. It’s not me and my mate arguing in a pub over something, these are professional people that have been appointed to represent. It doesn’t matter if you like somebody or dislike somebody, that should be irrelevant. You should be able to disagree, when I was campaigning, we’re throwing around insults like Nazi because ‘I disagree with you, you’re a Nazi. We all need to calm down, be professional and behave ourselves.” - Michelle Dewberry LASHES out at 'embarrassing' Miliband for Trump snub, Katie Weston, The Express (2019)

Dewberry, a Brexit Party rising star, clashed with Alistair Campbell over the Trump/Miliband relationship

Under attack at home and abroad, Miliband gave his yearly address to both chambers of Parliament, it would be the last President’s speech of Thornberry’s tenure. Miliband laid out the Government's plan for “real change” across the country. Rishi Sunak called Miliband's speech “a farce” claiming no programme can be delivered with “a majority of 6”, Sunak accused Miliband of "delivering a pre-election party political broadcast”. Miliband laid out what he claimed was the “most hopeful, people-focused programme in modern times." Calling it "a once-in-a-generation chance to transform our country”. In particular, Miliband highlighted plans for free personal care and prescriptions, as well as a pledge to end rough sleeping by 2024. Miliband also set out plans for a "revolution in apprenticeships" by 2024. He called for Britain's youth to "step-up and grab all opportunities".

Miliband probably would have prefered not to give his first second-term address against the backdrop of Thornberry’s resignation, which dominated headlines, with the Conservatives expected to win in May, Miliband was seen by many as a lame duck, and whilst many of the policies he set out for his second term were popular, few believed he would have the power to carry them out. The Presidential speech also gave Sunak a chance to sell himself to the British public, in his Parliamentary response he slammed Miliband’s “farcical” speech revealing in Labour’s political woes - “his own Prime Minister has run for the lifeboats, how many others will run from Labour’s sinking ship? The British people don’t want a lame-duck, they don’t want a house of cards, Mr Speaker, they want a Prime Minister who gets things done.”

“During the early stages of the Presidential campaign, Sunak, an ambitious young thing, sent on to the airwaves as a proxy for his would-be commander-in-chief. It is nice to think that Sunak knew he was actually auditioning for the role he finds himself in now. And that role is saying such absurd things as: “It is because we care so much about the NHS that we must get a referendum done.” Let's pause and think about that? There is precious little else to discuss after all. Try and imagine, four years ago, an actual sane person trying to claim that you can only sort out the NHS by getting a referendum European Union. The worry, of course, is that we’ve been swimming in this river of filth for so long now that we’re almost used to it. That someone can come out with something like this and we all shrug our shoulders and think, yep, NHS is struggling a bit, we need to leave the EU.” - The Tories need not worry. Their next bright young thing, Rishi Sunak, is just as shameless as the rest of them, Tom Peck, The Independent (2019)

Sunak's rise had been meteoric, and little seemed to stand in his way

““Thornberry’s resignation was a tactical mistake”, how far do you agree? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam

 

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The South West had been ruled by Premier Liam Fox since 2009, alongside First Minister Robert Buckland since 2014. The Conservatives had a hard night, whilst the South West was a safe Tory region, they had to fend off both the Brexit Party to it's right and United for Change to it's left, the caucus was led by Mel Stride, the South West's Finance Minister, Stride was an old-fashioned Libertarian Tory, supporting tax cuts and pro-business policies. Whilst he had no major gaffes Stride was almost invisible on the campaign trail, leading to a 14 point swing against the party.

Labour was led by Bristol Senator Kerry McCarthy, McCarthy based her campaign around fighting animal cruelty and reaching out to the rural South West, proposing banning grouse shooting and further subsidies for South West farmers. Like Stride, McCarthy was not a charismatic leader and had little impact on the campaign, with Labour holding steady on 6 seats.

The Liberal Democrats were led by Somerset Senator Tessa Munt, a former Labour member from the left of the party, Munt based her campaign around reducing NHS waiting times and opposing deforestation. Unfortunately for Munt, United for Change managed to capture much of the centrist vote, leading the party to stall in the campaign lose a seat.

As for the minor parties, the Brexit Alliance was led by documentary maker and war hero James Glancy, Glancy's candidacy as a former Commando gained a huge amount of public attention, and he used this to gain a 14 point swing. UKIP was caught under the Brexit Alliance wave and lost two seats. United for Change also had a celebrity candidate in the form of writer Rachel Johnson who led a three-strong caucus.

As for the smaller left-wing parties. The Greens led by Bristol Senator Carla Deyner lost one seat, whilst Merbyn Kernow managed to gain enough support in the Cornwall region to win a single seat in the Senate.

"“It’s the most frighting decision I have ever made in my life,” James Glancy says. ”More frightening than joining the Royal Marines. More frightening than going on operations with Special Forces. More frightening than going into combat.” The 36-year-old former soldier and dedicated environmentalist made the decision to stand “after a bottle of wine”. Glancy, who now hosts Discovery Channel’s Shark Week, was unprepared for what happened next. “Things have evolved so bloody quickly,” Glancy says. I thought this would be more like standing in a council election. I didn’t realise this was going to blow up into a national phenomenon. I wasn’t expecting to be a headline in MailOnline when I was announced,” he adds. ”I thought I could get into this, say my piece, stand up for what I believe in but without it becoming a national thing.” Recruited to stand in the South West by Nigel Farage's running mate Richard Tice, Glancy was unveiled as one of its star candidates. “The party put my face out on a leaflet so it’s turned me political and put me in the public eye,” he says." - Why This Ex-Soldier And Environment Activist Is Standing For Farage's Brexit Party, Ned Simons, Huffington Post (2019

 

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The first candidate to declare was left-wing firebrand John McDonnell

“Labour must continue to change, trust its supporters and be so much more than a group of politicians in parliament. Much of Labour politics should take place far away from Westminster, as a movement helping people take charge in their workplaces. In this way, we will develop and win support for policies that start a democratic revolution to take power out of the hands of unaccountable elites. The British state needs a seismic shock, to prise it open at all levels to the people – their knowledge, their skills, their demands. For the people to take charge, those that hoard power – like the big corporations that fund the Conservatives – will have to be forced out. And we have to be honest. For the people to take charge, we must pick a fight with the political establishment. To be trusted, we must show voters how our movement can, and will, win with them. That’s our path to holding power.” - Giving power to the people is Labour’s path back to power, John McDonnell, The Guardian (2019)

The Socialist Caucus had grown rapidly since 2017, through mobilising supporters they had pushed left wing candidates up the electoral lists, the caucus now had over 40 MPs

Labour’s elites did not want a repeat of the Diane Abbott situation in the Senate, they knew throwing the leadership election out to the party’s supporters would be a risk and the Socialist Caucus would hope to claim another shock leadership victory. The Socialist Caucus’ natural candidate would be its chair, London MP and former Hillingdon Mayor John McDonnell, the party needed to find a way to neutralise McDonnell and fast. Upon her departure, both Thornberry and Miliband called for an unofficial all-women shortlist, calling on male candidates not to stand. Possible frontrunners like Defence Secretary Keir Starmer and Leeds Mayor Hilary Benn both agreed not to stand, saying their lead candidate should be a woman considering the Conservatives were running a young BAME man.

When McDonnell did inevitably announce his leadership bid, he was seized on by the right and centre of the Labour Party accusing him of putting his ego ahead of women’s progress, this placed a wedge between McDonnell and the younger more progressive voters who had backed Diane Abbott. Despite the criticism, McDonnell went ahead with his campaign. McDonnell announced his candidacy with a piece criticising the party’s election strategy and lack of narrative. He promised to focus on policies and create a socialist programme with “unwavering determination”. In the article, he said: “We are losing the election because we lack a coherent narrative. I don’t just support socialist policies, I’ve spent the last four years writing them.

Next to declare was former Justice Secretary Rachel Reeves. After being sacked by Emily Thornberry, Reeves had become the Labour right’s go-to pundit in the media and she would often take to the airwaves to criticise the Thornberry administration, especially when it was seen as too economically radical. A proud deficit hawk, Reeves represented the cleanest break with the Thornberry era. In an article written for The Mirror, Reeves said: “I’m standing to be Leader of the Labour Party because I want to help us hold power to transform lives. Growing up in Lewisham the Tory Government believed families like ours didn’t deserve support. But my mum and my teachers told me and my sister there was nothing we couldn’t achieve. I want that hope and aspiration for every child. That’s what the Labour Party can deliver when it holds power.”

Reeves said she was the best candidate to ensure Labour held power

“The Labour Party needs to re-win the trust of people. If we don’t, we are letting down the most vulnerable people in our society. We are allowing our public services to continue to go underfunded. Without power we are powerless, we are powerless to defend to serve the people we got into politics to serve. Attempts to silence women in Parliament have not, and will not, work. It’s fun celebrating women — but what we want is power. Women who have sat on Parliament’s benches before us have made it a little bit easier for women such as me to do my job today. Every generation owes something to those who have gone before us — from Nancy Astor to Barbara Castle. We stand on the shoulders of these women pioneers. We are taller and stronger because of them. I want to be the next link in a chain of women running back through history, that's what I'm standing for leader.” - Reeves’ speech to a rally in Leeds (2019)

The third candidate to declare was Yorkshire Premier Yvette Cooper, looking to reclaim the Downing Street flat her husband had once occupied. She announced with a stark warning to party supporters that “unless we change course, we will lose power”. Nandy, who championed Yorkshire, announced her decision in the Yorkshire Evening Post. “Now is not the time to steady the ship or try not to oversteer,” she wrote. “What is needed are the hard yards of winning the argument inch by inch in town halls, workplaces and pubs. This is where we fight to regain people’s trust. The next Labour leader will have to be up for a scrap – willing to run to the places we are loathed, take the anger on the chin, make and win the argument.” Cooper said it was important for the next Labour leader to connect to parts of the country outside London to hold power.

Cooper pointed to her experience as Yorkshire Premier, saying she could stem Labour's bleeding in the North and Midlands

The final candidate to announce was Chairwoman of the Finance Committee and South East MP Anneliese Dodds. Dodds had been fairly unknown up until recently, she was Labour’s candidate for South East Premier in 2019, and put in a strong performance, coming the closest to winning the South East for Labour in over a decade. Dodds drew comparisons with the US Stacey Abrahms who had also run an insurgent campaign in a traditionally Conservative area. Dodds was seen as from the soft left, she was Miliband’s preferred successor and was accused of being a “continuity Thornberry” candidate. Dodds quickly received the backing of several major unions, including Unison and Usdaw, with the backing of Buckingham and the Union establishment, Dodds became the candidate to beat.

Dodds had the support of Buckingham and most the unions

“Many would assume that an MP with that rapid a rise up the greasy pole of politics would have to be the consummate Westminster schemer. But, Anneliese Dodds – a former public policy lecturer – is a unique case at a unique time and any accusation of political careerism falls flat. The South East MP describes her political career as “serendipitous” and speaks about its origins with genuine modesty. After failing to get elected at a regional level on several occasions, she stood as an MP candidate and was victorious in South East England. “People quite often ask me for advice around becoming an MP. I say well, ‘there was no strategy behind what happened to me at all’, quite the opposite.” Dodds completed degrees from Oxford and Edinburgh Universities, before beginning an academic career. She was elected chair of Parliament's Joint Treasury Committee in 2015 and was praised for her intelligence and pragmatism. She is also not a member of any of Labour’s oft-warring factions, which chimes with her promise to unify the party and stop tribal infighting.” - Anneliese Dodds on her plan to unite Labour, Stefan Bosica, CityAM (2019)

Dodds made a point by bringing her young daughter into committee hearings

Similar to the Tory leadership election, the Labour leadership election took place over a matter of weeks, another strategy planned to smoother McDonnell’s campaign. Dodds had been an MP for five years and had many contacts in Parliament, she quickly took a commanding lead in the endorsement battle and she portrayed herself as the main person to unify the party, and Reeves and Cooper engaged in a pitched battle to be Dodds’ challenger. Both Cooper and Reeves had been out of Westminster for years and many of their allies had either retired from politics or been isolated in the backbenches, both struggled to win over Union backing or any major endorsements, meanwhile, most of the Thornberry Cabinet were lining up behind Dodds.

At their convention in Hillingdon, East London, party bigwigs gathered to see who their new leader would be, Dodds was expected to win a solid lead in the first round, but with Reeves and Cooper both backing whichever of them made it into the final round, the ultimate result was expected to be fairly close. As NEC Chair Andi Fox read out the results, McDonnell was eliminated first, gaining a respectable 16% of the vote, but nowhere near the heights, Abbott had reached, with most of his transfers going over to Dodds. Then Cooper was eliminated, and in a close matchup between Reeves and Dodds, Dodds was declared the winner.

“There’s an old trade union saying that “the cause of labour is the hope of the world”. Here in Britain, it’s the Labour Party carrying that hope. The hope of a world where the riches of our planet are shared. The hope of a world with the chance for everyone to fulfil their full potential. We won’t build that world overnight. And let nobody tell you it will be easy. Or that we won’t face enormous resistance. But our time is here. Time to start work on our historic mission to lay the foundations of that new world. When they ask you sometime in the future: “Where were you when the Tories tried to sell out our country to Trump? When climate change threatened our planet and our very existence?” I want you all to be able to say: “I built the homes and public services our people needed. I made sure everyone was fed and cared for. With nobody forced to endure poverty. I saved the planet by tackling climate change. I helped lay the foundations of a new society." And when they ask “how did you do that?” You can tell them: “I supported Labour, that’s how.”” - Anneliese Dodds’ victory speech (2019)

“To what extent did Anneliese Dodds provide continuity from the Thornberry years? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam

 

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The South-East had been ruled by Premier Philip Hammond since 2014 and First Minister David Lidington since 2012. Philip Hammond had been a fairly dull Premier, but by virtue of the South East's strong Conservative leanings, he had managed to comfortably hold his position. This was until late 2018, when Eurosceptic MP Steve Baker launched a primary challenge to Hammond. Whilst Hammond won the primary it was tight and bruising, throwing the South East Tories into civil war. Amidst this backdrop, Hammond was re-elected, but it was far too close for comfort.

Labour had been slowly growing in the South East as it declined in the North and Midlands, urban centres like Brighton and Portsmouth had been growing, attracting graduates and younger voters to the South East. Labour nominated MP and former Oxford economics professor Annellisse Dodds. From the soft-left of the party, Dodds managed to unite her party and wow the South East public with her competence. Dodds also benefited from strong vote transfers, entering into a "progressive alliance" with the South East's other centre and left parties. Dodds' academic background drew comparisons with US Senator Elizabeth Warren, and she gave Labour it's best result in the South East in since 2004.

For the Brexit Alliance, enraged by his primary defeat, Baker becomes one of a handful of Tory MPs to cross the floor and nominate Nigel Farage in the 2019 Presidental Election, Baker was rewarded with the Brexit Alliance's nomination for South-East Premier. Baker had a hard-fought campaign with Dodds and Moran to be Hammond's main challenger (all three swapping between 2nd, 3rd and 4th place in the polls across the campaign. In the end, Baker ran a strong campaign, winning 14% for the weeks-old party.

As for the minor parties, the Liberal Democrats nominated Oxfordshire Senator Layla Moran, Moran claimed to be the best placed to beat Hammond but was overshadowed by Dodds and Baker. UKIP nominated MP and barrister Piers Wauchope, who failed to compete with the more high-profile Baker. UfC nominated well known former Tory MP John Bercow, who gained a strong 8%. Meanwhile, the Greens nominated DWP Secretary Caroline Lucas, who came last with 7% of the vote.

"A defiant Philip Hammond vowed to continue his fight for the “soul of the Conservative Party” despite being “abused” by party supporters. The South East Premier, who narrowly fought off a primary challenge by Steve Baker, hit out at the party's radical activists. Hammond said: "There was a tweet last night by Arron Banks saying that he signed up 30,000 new Brexit members to vote against me in this primary. This is a piece of blatant entryism to change what the Conservative Party is about." Mr Hammond, known as 'Spreadsheet Phil' in his time as Premier, has become an outspoken critic of the Tory right. Hammond said: "It doesn't matter how many times my party kicks me, abuses me, reviles me, they are not going to stop me feeling like a Conservative. I am not ready yet to give up fighting for the soul of the Conservative Party.” - Defiant Philip Hammond vows to continue the fight for 'soul of the Conservative Party', Nicola Bartlett, The Mirror (2018)

 

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Alliance had won a shock victory in May's elections

“Who won Northern Ireland’s elections this May? It was the cross-community Alliance Party who had by far the best night. Amid deep frustration with the impasse at Stormont, Alliance doubled their first preference votes. Its leader, Naomi Long, was elected Premier - the first Northern Irish Premier to identify as neither unionist nor nationalist. Can Long and her party sustain the Alliance surge, and with it reshape politics in Northern Ireland for good? "There’ll always be a reason for people to retreat into the trenches'', Long told the New Statesman in Belfast last week. "But on another level, it’s an opportunity because it distinguishes the Alliance from the others. We went into the election with our eyes wide open in that respect, but what we are doing is continuing to recruit new members. That is an ongoing, daily issue for us. I’m delighted to be able to get back from Stormont and have a pile of letters to read each week, from new registered supporters. So, there’s sustained growth on the ground which matters.” - Naomi Long on Northern Ireland's election, Patrick Maguire, New Statesman (2019)

Alliance needed to build it's support in Councils and Stormont if Long's Premiership was to last

Over in Northern Ireland, the new Long administration was making fast progress, announcing the decriminalisation of abortion and legalisation of same-sex marriage. The first same-sex weddings in Northern Ireland were set to take place in January 2020. The DUP - and some politicians from other unionist parties - walked out of Stormont in an attempt to block the lifting of a near-ban on terminations. Alliance described the walkout as a "cynical political stunt". Before now, abortion was only allowed in Northern Ireland if a woman's life was at risk or there was a danger of permanent and serious damage to her health. The Alliance administration also placed a duty on the government to put in place the recommendations of a report by CEDAW, published in 2018. It added that social and financial support should be ensured for women who decided to carry such pregnancies to term. Same-sex marriages had been allowed in all other regions of the Commonwealth since 2013, but Stormont did not legalise them. The DUP had vetoed legalisation back during a 2014 vote of Stormont. Northern Ireland's Catholic bishops said it was a "tragic day for unborn children and a sad day for local democracy."

Bishop Kevin Doran led religious opposition to Long's reforms

Naomi Long had become the first cross-community Premier in Northern Irish history, and she quickly got to work passing socially liberal legislation. Both Sinn Fein and the UUP had moved towards more socially liberal positions as the “old guard” had departed the stage, and for the first time, Stormont had a majority in favour of gay marriage and abortion rights. It was a brave move for the untested Premier and enraged Northern Ireland’s religious communities. The reforms also contributed to a split in Sinn Fein, as the party’s socially conservative, anti-abortion wing led by Peadar Tóibín split to form a new party, named “Aontú”.

“Former Sinn Féin TD Peadar Tóibín is to name his new political party Aontú. Mr Tóibín has applied to register the political movement with electoral bodies in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The Electoral Commission in Northern Ireland confirmed it had received an application from Mr Tóibín to register a party in the North. “Aontú means unity and consent,” Mr Toibin told The Irish Times. “We seek the unity of Irish people north and south and to build an Ireland for everyone - Protestant, Catholic and Dissenter. We’ll seek to build an all-Ireland with economic justice for all and to protect the right to life.” 2,000 people have signed up to join the new party. Mr Tóibín revealed that 30 Cumainn have been founded in the party, with seven of these in the north of Ireland. “We have achieved more in the north than Fianna Fáil in 20 years. Counties such as Meath, Cork, Dublin, Donegal have Cumainn functioning. Some Cumainn have started to canvass once a week in their areas,” he said. The party is also organising selection conventions for the local elections.” - Peadar Tóibín to name new political party ‘Aontú’, Jennifer Bray, The Irish Times (2019)

Sinn Fein's support for abortion liberalisation in the North would contribute to splits in the Republic
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Over in Canada, the Jeffery Epstein affair continued to engulf the Royal Family. Things only got worse after Prince Andrew had a car crash interview with senior CBC journalist Rosemary Barton. In the interview on CBC's "The National", the prince denied having sex with a then 17-year-old girl - Virginia Giuffre. The CBC's royal correspondent Simon Vigar said the prince was "very damaged" by the interview and the opportunity to clear his name had "failed". Barton said she understood the Queen herself had given her approval for the interview to go ahead. Writing in The National Post newspaper, she said it seemed the Queen was "on board" for the interview after Prince Andrew had sought approval from "higher up". For several months the Duke of York had been facing questions over his ties to Epstein - who took his own life while awaiting trial. Prince Andrew denied having any sexual contact with Virginia Giuffre known at the time as Virginia Roberts. The first occasion, she said, took place when she was aged 17. A lawyer for some of Epstein's alleged victims urged the prince to talk under oath to the US authorities.

“Prince Andrew’s offer to be interviewed could be important for US authorities’ investigation of Epstein. They are keen to talk to high-profile friends of the disgraced financier as they seek to track down more of his accomplices and associates. But speaking with US authorities carries legal risk, longtime attorneys told the Guardian. Prince Andrew is not charged with wrongdoing but the controversy is only likely to ramp up. Julie Rendelman, a former prosecutor, said she would tell clients to be wary if subpoenaed by a grand jury if they are the subject of an investigation. “Unless they’re being given immunity, I would tell them to plead the fifth,” Rendelman said. “There’s nothing to be gained by talking to a grand jury without immunity in those circumstances.” A decision to meet with US authorities would depend on whether a client has “serious risk of facing imminent criminal charges”. In that situation, a client could benefit from giving up possible co-conspirators.” - Prince Andrew: why meeting with US authorities would be a 'catch-22', Victoria Bekiempis, The Guardian (2019)

The international community was putting considerable pressure on Canada to extradite Prince Andrew so he could face a grand jury

Shortly after the disastrous interview, Prince Andrew announced he would be stepping down from royal duties. Prince Andrew said he had asked the Queen for permission to withdraw for the "foreseeable future". Companies he had links with, such as BT and Barclays, had joined universities and charities in distancing themselves from him. His latest move, was taken following discussions with the Queen and Prince Charles. He added that he was "willing to help any appropriate law enforcement agency with their investigations if required". His decision to step back was a drastic move but the rumours that had been circulating had been difficult for the Royal Family to manage. In his interview with CBC, the duke said the "opportunities I was given to learn" about business meant he did not regret the friendship with Epstein. The duke said he could not recall ever meeting Virginia Giuffre, and said that on the night she claims they first met that he went to a Pizza Pizza. He sought to cast doubt on her testimony claiming that a medical condition at the time meant he could not perspire.

Whilst Candian Prime Minister Peter MacKay tried to protect Prince Andrew and the Royal Family, pressure from within Canada and abroad overwhelmed his administration, and he announced Prince Andrew would be extradited to the United States so he could testify before an American grand jury. Whilst Prince Andrew went willingly, the image of a Prince being marched by FBI agents onto a plane showed the weakness of the Royal Family, as the Queen was powerless to stop his extradition. With the loss of Britain, Australia, and countless smaller nations, the Royal Family now needed Canada more than Canada needed it, with Rideau Hall besieged by journalists, her grandsons estranged and her son taken to another country the Queen was increasingly isolated.

“The Queen cut a lonely figure yesterday when she was spotted horse riding only in the company of an equerry. The monarch was wrapped up in a long dark blue coat and had her head covered with a colourful purple, yellow and red headscarf. The Queen is staying at Rideau without the company of her husband, as Prince Philip is recovering from a “wobble”, according to a royal source. The absence of the Duke of Edinburgh from Rideau is contributing to the Queen’s “isolation”, the source continued. They told The Sun: “A few weeks ago Philip had a bit of a wobble and hasn’t felt so energetic. Until recently he has been very active although he no longer drives on public roads following his crash in January. “His mind is as sharp as ever. But the sad reality is that the Queen is more isolated. "They are both making an extraordinary personal sacrifice for the country.” The Queen, the source continued, is “under strain” at the moment, as she is worried about members of her own family and for the country.” - Queen spotted horse riding in Windsor as source claims she is ‘more isolated', Danica Kirka, Toronto Star (2019)

The Monarchy was in it's most precarious position since the Diana Crisis

“To what extent did the Prince Andrew affair harm the royal family? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam

 

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Scotland had been ruled by Premier Nicola Sturgeon since 2014, and First Minister Kate Forbes since 2017, Forbes led a coalition of SNP and Green legislators, propped up by reluctant confidence and supply from the Liberal Democrats. However the Scottish Parliament had spent the last few years in deadlock, and Salmond's trial in full swing, the SNP was increasingly fractured and dysfunctional, their leader, John Swinney, was absent for most of early part of the campaign, undergoing a campaign for President. Due to all these factors, the SNP lost 2 seats in the Senate.

Labour too faced problems, as their previous Senate Leader Ian Murray defected to Unite for Change, becoming the centrist party's Scottish Leader. Fulled by outrage at Murray's perceived betrayal, left-winger Richard Leonard was elected Senate Leader. Scottish Labour was quickly engulfed in a tight battle to hold onto the official opposition, after losing it to the Conservatives in the Scottish Parliament. Leonard was a fairly boring leader, but he was able to hold onto all his caucus and the official opposition.

The Scottish Tories were led by party grandee David Mundell, who had led their caucus for nearly 20 years. Mundell pitched himself as the best candidate to prevent a second independence referendum and particularly targeted rural Scotland. Whilst he wasn't able to take the official opposition like his Parliamentary colleague Douglas Ross had, he still gained the Senate Conservatives an extra seat.

As for the minor parties, the Greens did well from the SNP's internal troubles, picking up an extra seat. The Liberal Democrats held steady with little impact on the election. The Brexit Alliance was particularly notable as it was led by Louis Stedman-Bryce, who became Scotland's first black gay Senator. Both United for Change and the Scottish Socialists fell below the 4% threshold and failed to be elected to the Senate.

"The Scottish National Party’s triumph in the Premier and Senate elections was expected, and then it happened. This in itself is surprising enough, given the near-total breakdown of all other things into contingency. English commentators drool over Scotland’s solid, predictable return of yellow-rosetted representatives. The SNP’s early successes in 2011 and 2014 were not so much about independence as the party’s expert performance of “competence”. An act — choreographed, even if things wobbled behind the scenes — that has continued to charm voters as chaos reigns elsewhere. Such a performance would have been impossible without a disciplined party machine. A machine honed through decades where any split in the nationalist ranks threatened electoral death. Nigel Farage has also begun to work this out, but his solution is a blunt instrument: a party run as a dictatorship rather than a democracy. This attempt to hack British democracy is, of course, lazy, in the face of the SNP’s achievement: a living political organism." - The SNP’s uneasy hegemony, Rory Scothorne, New Statesman (2019)

 

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The Commonwealth Liberal Democrats had spent two decades trying to break the two-party system

“There will soon be craving for alternatives to the duopoly. The economy is stagnant and is unlikely to revive while there is uncertainty over the terms of our relationship with the EU. There are some underlying strengths which will endure. The party remains the only real option for millions of people with liberal and social democratic values. We have strong economic credibility which Labour and the Conservatives have subordinated to populism. We retain a strong local government base, and there will soon be opportunities to rebuild it further. For some of us, these are depressing times. I have spent half a century contesting elections and campaigning for Britain to be part of Europe. This cause has been badly damaged. But only for now, until we break through this ceiling and give the electorate a plausible alternative to the duopoly.” - Vince Cable speaking with BBC interview (2019)

The Liberal Democrats had vetoed an EU referendum in every Government they had been a part of

The Liberal Democrats had been stagnant for many years now, after collapsing their vote share in 2011, they had mildly recovered, hovering at around 10% of the vote in most elections thanks to their suburban city voters and rural South West strongholds. They had gotten comfortable as playing second fiddle to Labour after eight years in the coalition. The new affiliation and alliance with the majority of United for Change demonstrated a chance for the first time in years for the Liberal Democrats to break their 12% ceiling. Incumbent Deputy Prime Minister Jo Swinson had won plaudits for her deft negotiation of UfC’s affiliation and took this opportunity to ride off into the sunset, saying the Alliance needed a new leader who could unite both parties and take the movement forward.

Swinson remained popular with party supporters

“With the Lib Dems leaderless, it must be time for them to do the honest thing and disband. They should reverse the old 1983 SDP marriage, and merge with a revivalist Labour. It would galvanise Labour’s moderate wing and dilute the influence of the hard-left. The Liberals have never looked like winning an election since Lloyd George’s day. They have offered an electoral dustbin between political polarities, a media-cosseted Westminster club. Liberals failed to capitalise on regionalism or nationalism. They were never radical, and in the coalition are a broken reed. For the past year, the party has been a convalescent home for wounded warriors from the major parties. This party is an anachronistic political spoiler. Its time is over. Liberal Democrats should disperse and confer their moderating influence on two bigger parties, who need it.” - The Liberal Democrats should disband, Simon Jenkins, The Guardian (2019)

Unity was the main name of the game, and some of the party’s more radical voices declined to run for leader out of fear of “spooking the horses”. Recent anti-coalition free marketeers joiners such as Sim Giymah and John Bercow decided not to run as did social-democratic pro-coalition figures like Daisy Cooper and Chuka Umunna. Former UfC members especially declined to run, saying the next leader should be a Lib Dem, out of respect for their senior partner. Some of the Liberal Democrat old guards like Ed Davey also declined to make a bid, saying the new leader should be a fresh face. The two candidates that did emerge were both broadly Cabelite in their persuasion, and the main debate would be around tactics and identity rather than policy or principles.

Vince Cable's legacy still held great weight in the party

The first candidate to announce was Christine Jardine, a 59-year-old MP from Scotland. Jardine was a grassroots favourite and was known for her fiery clashes with the SNP and her backbench campaign to reform the domestic abuse bill. Jardine was seen as close to Swinson and called on the party to break the perception that it was a party of the South, highlighting the fact that the overwhelming majority of Lib Dem national legislators and Cabinet Members represented constituencies in the South of England. On the issue of the coalition, Jardine said she would support a coalition with Labour but would be renegotiating terms.

“The Liberal Democrats are gearing up for a fight over the soul of the party, battling over whether to reject the Traffic Light Coalition. Behind the scenes, an enormous row is already brewing over whether the Lib Dems should tack further to the right. The clash is partly seen as an attempt to hobble frontrunner Christine Jardine, who was a Junior Minister during the Balls years. The debate is likely to centre around whether the Lib Dems should take a gamble on a fresh face, or stick with the best-known candidate Jardine. One MP told the Independent: “We’ve got to decide – Coalition or not? If we want to build an alliance of the centre-right, maybe we have to leave the Coalition years behind.” Sam Giymah said last week that the party should stop attacking the Conservatives and go after the Labour instead. But allies of Jardine dismiss the suggestion that she is tainted by her track record as a Junior Home Office Minister from 2011 to 2014. She is likely to stress her experience as a minister and urge the party to focus on climate change and social justice.” - Liberal Democrats at war over the coalition, Hugo Gye, The Independent (2019)

Jardine wore her involvement with the coalition as a badge of pride

The other candidate to emerge was Munira Wilson, a 40-year-old former lobbyist and MP for London. Wilson had only entered Parliament in 2017 and became known for leading the campaign against Heathrow expansion. Wilson shared broadly the same politics as Jardine, supporting a renegotiated coalition but open to working with either party. Wilson instead pointed to her age and background, as a woman of Pakistani ancestry, Wilson argued that the Liberal Democrats needed to have a BME leader, especially considering Sunak’s position as Conservative Leader, Wilson also pointed to her age, almost twenty years younger than Jardine, Wilson argued she would represent a new generation for the Liberal Democrats.

Wilson was the youngest of the two candidates

Whilst the election was close, Jardine was well known amongst activists after years in the Westminster Parliament and as a Junior Minister, whilst Wilson was new to the political game. Jardine had a huge phonebook of contacts, and used these to great effect, receiving endorsements from Jo Swinson, Ed Davey and Nick Clegg. As well as her support amongst the upper echelons of the party, Jardine was also popular amongst the grassroots, especially in her home nation of Scotland, where a small but passionate base of Scottish Liberal Democrat activists worked around the clock to get Jardine elected as leader. Jardine’s message of moving Lib Dem focus away from London and the Southeast played well with the party’s Northern and Celtic supporters, allowing her to pull ahead in the polls.

At a conference in Norwich, the Liberal Democrats National Committee Chair Mark Pack MP announced the results, Jardine had won a close, but respectable win, her message of experience, coupled with her raft of endorsements and establishment support allowed her to take 57% of the vote to Wilson’s 43%. Jardine’s victory was welcomed by all wings of the Liberal Democrats, including many refugees for UfC. Now Jardine had the task of leading the Liberal Democrats into their most unstable period for years, with the coalition sinking, and the Tories surging, it was up to Captain Jardine to steady the ship and sail into the great storm.

“We need to grow and encourage people to support our movement in a way that is best for them. We need to work with anyone out there who yearns for the progressive change this country needs, but never forget what we achieved in Government. We got the Pink Tax outlawed. We lifted the ban on asylum seekers working and feeling valued. We ended the benefits freeze. We stopped the immoral cap on benefits for children. We introduced a better way to help people dependent on disability payments without robbing them of their dignity. We restored some humanity to a system we were once so proud of. This generation of Liberals can finish the job that previous ones started. We can stop the Tories dismantling that fairer society, the welfare state those generations worked so hard to build. And we can stop Labour crashing our economy and driving us off a cliff. Reject the politics of these rudderless, shambolic main parties. We demand Better. We demand a Liberal Future.” - Christine Jardine’s victory speech (2019)

"To what extent did the 2019 Liberal Democrat leadership election represent the end of the Traffic Light Coalition (30 Marks)" - A Level Politics Exam

 

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Miliband was trying desperately to salvage the Iran Nuclear Deal Trump had torched

“Over the past year, in response to Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear accord, Tehran has restarted elements of its nuclear program. As tensions with the US heighten, more dramatic steps are likely. And as Iran gets closer and closer to the capability to produce fuel for a nuclear weapon yet another path to a military confrontation will emerge. Given these dangers, the administration needs to level with the American people about its strategy and its plans. It needs to provide the intelligence it used to justify the strike and explain how it will mitigate the myriad risks emanating from it. In another administration, there would also be a coherent national security process to ensure the safety of U.S. military personnel. The administration must harden infrastructure against Iranian-backed terrorism. To date, Trump hasn’t shown the temperament or patience for such deliberation. Now, because of the fateful decisions Trump has made, the administration is facing by far its greatest test. And as the United States dives headfirst into dark waters, there is a very real danger the administration is navigating blind.” - Trump Is Playing With Fire in the Middle East, Colin Kahl, Foriegn Policy (2020)

The Commonwealth couldn't do much to stop Trump threatening global peace

2020 began with fire and blood from the Trump administration as Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was killed in an airstrike. The Foreign Office warned British nationals not to travel to Iraq and only essential travel to Iran. The death increased tensions in the region, where the Commonwealth had 300 troops. The Commonwealth Navy began escorting British ships in the Gulf. Defence Secretary Keir Starmer said CBS Montrose and CBS Defender would go with British ships through the Strait of Hormuz. He said he spoke to his US counterpart David Norquist and urged all parties to de-escalate the situation. President Miliband called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Speaking in a Buckingham press briefing he said: ""There is a tremendous risk we could end up in another war. We have to do everything that we can to pull Donald Trump back from this." Conservative Leader Rishi Sunak said: "Under international law, the US is entitled to defend itself." US forces in Iraq were "attacked" by Iranian-backed militia and Soleimani was "at the heart" of such efforts, he added. Brexit Party Senator James Wells called the Commonwealth government's response "pathetic".

Brexit Party legislators like Wells called on the Government to give Trump their full support

Things would escalate when President Trump threatened to bomb Iranian cultural and heritage sites. Foreign Secretary Ed Davey criticised the US president over his threats. He said, “We have been very clear that cultural sites are protected under international law and we would expect that to be respected.” Davey was speaking after Trump said he could target 52 Iranian sites if Iran retaliated over the assassination of Suleimani. Trump’s comments amounted to threatening a war crime as such action would violate international treaties. The president said that the number of targets chosen – 52 – matched the number of US hostages held by Iran in 1979. Historic sites in Iran included the ancient Achaemenid capital of Persepolis, and the grand mosque of Isfahan. His threats prompted an angry response from Iran. President Mohammad Ghalibaf said: “Those who refer to the number 52 should also remember the number 290. Never threaten the Iranian nation.” The number referred to the 1988 shooting down of a civilian plane – Iran Air Flight 655 – by a US warship stationed in the Gulf. The USS Vincennes had mistaken it for a hostile fighter jet; the incident led to the death of all 290 people on board.

“Iran has struck back, launching over a dozen missiles at US and coalition forces early on Wednesday. No US casualties were reported, and Iran and the US have since moved toward de-escalation. Around the same time as Iran's missile attack, Ukrainian Airlines Flight 752 crashed outside the Iranian capital of Tehran. Reports suggested the flight was hit by a surface-to-air missile system operated by the Iranian military. So far, Iranian officials appear to be rejecting these reports. Iranian suggested it' was "impossible" the Ukrainian flight was shot down, even though the jetliner was well within range. "It was flying in a pretty rough neighbourhood, and somebody could have made a mistake," US President Donald Trump told reporters.” - Iran's president tweeted about an Iranian plane the US shot down in 1988 2 days before a Ukrainian plane was downed in Tehran, John Haltiwanger, Business Insider (2020)

A Ukrainian plane was shot down days after, whether this was an accident or retaliation was up for debate

The Commonwealth had to play a dangerous balancing act, on one hand, Miliband and his European allies were desperate to hold the Iranian Nuclear deal together after Trump’s withdrawal, at the same time Miliband needed to show strength to Iran after the seizing of British tankers, finally Miliband had to try not to worsen relations with the Trump Whitehouse any further. Britain tried to place itself as a neutral arbiter between the two, with the reconvening of the UN Security Council, but the Commonwealth was roundly ignored as the two states engaged in an increasing war of words. Whilst Trump was not a popular figure in Britain, opposition parties accused Labour of having more sympathy for Iran than their long term ally, and Miliband’s dovish attitude towards Iran didn’t help his “weak” foreign policy image.

“Ed Miliband has been accused of siding with Britain’s enemies after he criticised the US’s killing of a top Iranian military commander. Ian Austin, a vocal Miliband critic and UfC Senator who left the party citing its problems with foreign policy questioned: “whose side are we on?” Miliband had branded the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force, as a “dangerous escalation”. Austin, was so opposed to Miliband being reelected he urged voters back Theresa May in the final round. Qassem Soleimani was killed in a US airstrike in Iraq. The US accused him of “developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region”. The US also said Soleimani approved attacks on the US Embassy in Baghdad earlier this week and blamed Iran for attacks targeting tankers. Miliband said: “The assassination of general Soleimani is a dangerous escalation of the conflict. The British government will urge restraint on the part of both Iran and the US, and stand up to the belligerent actions and rhetoric coming from the US.” - Milliband accused of 'siding with our enemies' over US killing of Iranian commander, Will Taylor, Yahoo News (2020)

Soleimani's death and years of tensions had driven the Iranian voting public to Ghalibaf's Conservative faction

In Royal News Prince Harry announced he would be renouncing all Royal Titles and seeking American citizenship. Harry had married US film star Meghan Markle in Los Angeles in 2017 and had been residing in the US since even giving birth to a son. No other royal - including the Queen or Prince William - was consulted before the statement and Rideau Hall said it was "disappointed". Prince Harry spoke at the trauma around his mother's assassination and struggles under the media spotlight. In their unexpected statement, Harry said he made the decision "after many months of reflection". "I intend to step away as a member of the Royal Family. My time in the United States has allowed me space from the trials of my past, and whilst I bear no ill will towards my Father and Grandmother, I no longer want to be associated with them. Geographic distance will enable us to raise our son while providing our family with the space to focus on the next chapter." Due to the nature of Diana's death, there had long been a rift between her children and the rest of the royal family and the media onslaught after the birth of Harry's son Archie only heightened this rift. The move was compared to Edward VIII's abdication in 1936 to marry twice-divorced American Wallis Simpson.

Of Diana’s two estranged children, Harry had always been the more candid, and hostile of the two. Whilst William had held the traditional stiff upper lip and even appeared with his family at official functions, Harry had distanced himself, spending much of his adult life in Britain, Australia and the US, rather than Canada. His marriage to Meghan Markle, a mixed-race American film star of non-royal blood, was seen as a repudiation of the Royal Family and his old life and Harry had once told an interviewer he could “never forgive” his father and grandmother. Harry now had a new life in sunny California, but for the Queen this only built the growing pressure within Ottawa to abdicate, support for republicanism had been growing in Canada, with the NDP and sizeable chunk of the Liberals moving towards a republican position, if the Queen continued to hold on, their might not be a realm left for Charles to inherit.

“She has reigned for 67 years after taking over the throne in 1952. And now Royal Family fans have been left believing that in 2020 she will finally move aside and allow her son Prince Charles to become King. That’s the view of leading bookmaker Coral, which has cut the odds on the Queen abdicating this year to 4-1. The odds for her grandson William and wife Kate, the Duchess of Cambridge, to announce they are expecting their fourth child are 2-1. Coral said: ”We've cut the odds on the Queen abdicating this year off the back of what has been a turbulent start to the New Year for the Royal Family. There is definitely a much greater chance that they begin to go in a different direction in 2020.” The rumours come at a time when the Royal Family is in crisis. Last week, Prince Harry announced he would be renouncing his titles and cutting all ties with the Royal Family. The Prince is reportedly threatening to take part in a tell-all US television interview, which could unleash hell on the Royal Family.” - Queen on the brink?, Richard Berthelsen, CTV News (2020)

One way or another, the Queen was entering the twilight of her reign

“President Miliband’s attempts to mediate tensions between the US and Iran were broadly unsuccessful.” How far do you agree? (30 Marks)”” - A Level Politics Exam

 

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Yorkshire had been ruled by a Labour/Liberal coalition, led by Premier Yvette Cooper since 2014, Cooper had been a moderately popular Premier, but clashes with her First Minister Richard Burgon and divisions within the Yorkshire Labour Party had stalled political progress somewhat. Cooper had focused her Premiership on improving Yorkshire's small and medium-sized towns, especially those in West and South Yorkshire. Whilst she did win the final round, it was disappointing considering Labour's traditional strength in Yorkshire.

The Tories nominated their Leader in the Yorkshire Parliament, Julian Smith. Smith was known for giving the Tories one of their best results in Yorkshire in the 2017 Parliamentary elections, netting the party an 11% swing. Whilst from the moderate wing of the party, Smith was respected across the Conservative Party and popular amongst Yorkshire voters, especially those in rural and North Yorkshire. This led to Smith winning the best Yorkshire result for the Conservatives since 2009.

The Brexit Alliance nominated defecting UKIP Senator Jane Collins. Collins had come to prominence campaigning around the Rotherham abuse scandal and was well known in Yorkshire. She performed especially well in more Eurosceptic and working-class areas of South Yorkshire, winning a strong 15% of the vote for the Brexit Alliance, one of their best results in the country.

UKIP nominated regional Senator Gary Shores, who's anti-green energy campaign was mostly ignored in favour of Collins. Former Deputy First Minister Greg Mullholland made his last campaign, gaining 8% of the vote. The Greens put forward their Parliamentary Leader Magid Magid who netted 6% of voters, UfC put forward former Labour MP Angela Smith, who won 6% of the vote. Finally, Diana Wallis of the Yorkshire Party gained 5%

"Several Ukip Senators have defected to Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party. Jill Seymour and Jane Collins announced their resignations on Monday. It is understood a third Ukip Senator, Margot Parker, has also quit the party. Ms Collins said Ukip’s attitude to women was “disgusting” and said she wanted to spend the rest of her time as a Senator fighting to secure a “real referendum”. She said Mr Farage’s new party is the “best way of achieving that”. Ms Collins said: “To have people like Carl Benjamin on topping the list for the party is something I find disgusting. To hear Gerard Batten on national TV yesterday defending this man’s use of rape as ‘satire’ made me sick to my stomach. I know women who have been raped and the mental and physical destruction it wreaks on these victims and their loved ones is the opposite of satire. I have spent much of my time as a Senator standing up for the rights of women, including the victims of sexual exploitation in Rotherham. It is impossible for me to stay in the party now and I will be joining the Brexit Party.” - Ukip Senators quit to join Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, Samuel Osborne, The Independent (2019)

 

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Offshore wind had exploded under the Traffic Light coalition

“The offshore wind sector is a major British success story, providing cheap, green electricity. Powering every home in the country through offshore wind is ambitious. But it’s exactly this kind of ambition which will mean we can build greener and reach net zero emissions by 2040. Today’s announcement marks the latest stage of the government’s support for renewable energy. Last September the renewable energy auction delivered enough clean energy to power 8 million homes. Earlier this year the government announced the next round would be open to onshore wind and solar projects for the first time since 2015. Britain has the largest installed capacity of offshore wind in the world, with around 20GW in operation off its coasts. The government’s plan for renewable energy forms part of wider efforts to ensure Britain meets its target to reach net zero emissions by 2040. Over the past decade, Britain has cut carbon emissions by more than any developed country. In 2020, UK emissions are 50% lower than in 2000." - Speech by Business Secretary Amelia Womack (2019)

With tensions abroad Miliband tried desperately to pivot the conversation back to the turf he was comfortable on, a positive news story would come when work began on Dogger Bank Wind Farm, which would become the world's largest offshore wind farm when complete, with 270-metre high turbines generating a combined 4 gigawatts and supplying 5 million homes. with the first power set to be produced in 2022. Business Secretary Amelia Womack said the investment could "support thousands of new jobs". The project was located 80 miles off the East Yorkshire coast and consists of three sites. The electricity would come ashore at sites in Teesside and Cottingham in East Yorkshire. The project was a joint public-private operation, with the British Government investing £8bn in the project. Environment Secretary Jonathan Bartley said: "Dogger Bank will constitute an industrial wind hub. This will play a major role in British ambitions for offshore wind and supporting the net-zero ambition." The project was one of many large wind farms planned off the Yorkshire coast, planned in tandem with Yvette Cooper and the Yorkshire Government. President Miliband claimed offshore wind would "supply at least a 40% of our power by 2029". Offshore wind had taken off in the Commonwealth and an unprecedented rate, thanks to Federal investments and subsidies.

The Greens took much of the credit for growth in offshore wind

Dogger Bank was the sort of New-Deal style infrastructure Miliband needed to revive his stalling economy and construction was met with much fanfare from the British press. Unfortunately for Labour, any real results would take years to materialise, and much of the credit for the project went to the Green Party, and Secretaries Womack and Bartley had spearheaded the Commonwealth’s various renewable energy. The growth in offshore wind wasn’t universally popular and several coastal areas had mounted large local protests to wind turbines appearing on their picturesque shoreline, especially on the East Coast of Yorkshire and off the coast in Wales.

Dogger Bank was conveniently timed, as it came with the launch of the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP26), a major UN climate summit to be held in Glasgow in November. President Miliband launched the conference, joined by Sir David Attenborough. At the event, he made a legal commitment to achieve net-zero emissions and called all nations to strive towards that goal. President Miliband said "hosting COP26 is an important opportunity for Britain to step up in the fight against climate change. As we set out our plans to hit our ambitious net-zero target, we must urge others to join us in pledging net zero emissions. There can be no greater responsibility than protecting our planet, and no mission that Britain is prouder to serve. 2020 must be the year we turn the tide on global warming– it will be the year when we choose a cleaner, greener future for all." The President used the speech to call for international efforts to reach net-zero as early as possible. At the event, which was also attended by Italian PM Luigi De Maio, the President reinforced his commitment to tackling climate change. The Government announced plans to bring forward an end to the sale of new petrol and diesel cars to 2029.

“Attenborough said he found it "encouraging" that the British government was launching a "year of climate action". The longer we leave it, the worse it is going to get," he said. "So now is the moment. It is up to us to organise the nations of the world to do something about it." Several regional Governments had already planned bans by 2030, including London and the North West. Friends of the Earth' said the government was "right" to bring forward the ban, but that 2025 would be better than 2029. “A new 2029 target will still leave Britain in the slow-lane of the electric car revolution," he said. He said the government could show "real leadership" ahead of COP26 by reversing plans to develop "climate-wrecking roads". AA said: "Drivers support measures to clean up air quality and reduce CO2 emissions but these targets are challenging." The chief executive of MMT, Tony Walker, accused the government of "moving the goalposts". "Accelerating an already very challenging ambition will take more than industry investment". He said the government's plans must safeguard industry and jobs.” - Petrol and diesel car sales ban brought forward to 2029, BBC News (2019)

Miliband's plans brought him into conflict with auto industry

COP26 was a once in a lifetime opportunity for Britain and the Miliband administration, and if he played his cards right, Miliband could use COP26 to reinforce his status as a global leader in fighting climate change. Whilst he was criticised by opposition parties for politicising the launch, the COP launch was a rare propaganda coup for the Government, the first set of good news in a long time. Miliband unveiled a set of radical policies, including bringing forward the ban on petrol and diesel cars to 2029 and a £2 billion investment in electric vehicles. The “car ban” policy was particularly controversial, with public figures from Nigel Farage to Jeremy Clarkson slamming Labour’s erasure of the British automobile industry, Miliband was playing with fire.

Climate change would quickly fall down the list of Government's worries, as a mysterious virus gripped the Chinese city of Wuhan. Up to 300 British citizens trapped in Wuhan had to be repatriated as the British Government ordered all non-essential British nationals in China to return to the Commonwealth.. Health Secretary Barry Gardiner told the House of Commons that the government was “advancing” plans to help citizens leave. Gardiner announced those who returned to Britain would be asked to self-isolate even if they had no symptoms of viral pneumonia. More than 2,000 people arrived in Britain on flights from China since and the government had the unenviable job to trace them all. The Department of Health ordered those who had arrived from China to stay home and keep away from close contact with other people. The government had been criticised for not having acted sooner to help British citizens leave Wuhan. Other countries including France and Japan had already moved to get their citizens out. On mainland Britain, over 100 people had been tested for the novel coronavirus with two cases emerging.

Yorkshire would be the first region to recieve positive COVID cases

“All the people tested in Britain had visited Wuhan - the Chinese city where the outbreak originated. Four out of five patients tested in Scotland were Chinese nationals. Dr Cosford added that anyone returning from China who experienced symptoms should contact NHS 111. But he said that the majority of people would recover if they contracted the virus. “Coronavirus is a very broad Church of viruses, from the common cold, on one hand, two sides on the other,” he added. “The people who have died are older people with other illnesses that they've got. And as I say that the majority of people. It does look as if they’re making a full recovery.” Jeremy Farrar, of the Wellcome Trust, said: “I am alarmed, but there is a big difference between that and panic. If this does take off like in China the pressure on the NHS will be very difficult.”” - More Coronavirus tests ordered, Sarah Knapton, The Telegraph (2020)

There was now a global rush to secure COVID testing kits

The Chinese nationals were guests at a hotel in York, before being taken to hospital in Newcastle. The hotel was ordered to close by the Yorkshire Government The new coronavirus had caused the deaths of 200 people so far - all in China. Cases of the virus had reached 9,000 in China - and more than 90 cases had been reported in 20 other countries. Prof Jonathan Van-Tam, Chief Medical Adviser to the President, said the NHS was "well-prepared for infections". The two people with coronavirus were moved from York to be treated in Hull, before being taken to the infectious diseases unit in Newcastle. Buckingham said there was a risk of infection to either guests and staff at the property in York. Those identified as close contacts would be quarantined, Buckingham said. Van-Tam said Newcastle hospital was experienced in treating people with infectious diseases. "A lot of people will end up with a minor disease," he said.

The new Wuhan virus was shrouded in mystery, what information there was about the virus was muddled or even contradictory at times, but the Government was taking any chances. Its heavy-handed demands of mandatory repatriation and quarantine were criticised by some, with Opposition Leader Rishi Sunak claiming that by forcing British nationals in China to return they would be bringing the virus straight back to the Commonwealth. The decentralised nature of the Commonwealth also brought problems for combating the virus should it arrive on British shores, with every nation and region holding its own distinct Health Department and NHS trusts, the relatively toothless Federal Health Department and Public Health Britain could only advice and guide, they could not directly take control of preventative methods.

“Health Secretary Barry Gardiner outlined the "proportionate measures" Britain has taken on the advice of the Chief Medical Adviser. He also told MPs that the NHS is prepared to deal with any cases. The Minister stated: "The public can be assured that the whole of Britain is always well-prepared for these types of outbreaks. We will remain vigilant and keep our response under constant review in the light of emerging scientific evidence." Responding on behalf of the Opposition, Rishi Sunak thanked the Department for Health for their work. But, she said that a passenger arriving from Wuhan yesterday said that he had gone through "no screening at all, but was given a leaflet". Sunak asked the Minister if flights from other Chinese cities would be monitored and, if so when that monitoring would begin. He also asked if specific advice would be given to British citizens returning from China who may have health conditions. Rishi Sunak told MPs: "There is a chance that a global pandemic can be avoided if governments across the world take the right measures."” - Barry Gardiner makes a statement on Wuhan Coronavirus, House of Commons (2019)

Health Secretary Barry Gardiner would face the greatest challenge of his life

“To what extent was the Miliband administration effective at stopping the spread of the Covid-19 virus? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam

 

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East Midlands Premier Patrick McLoughlin announced his resignation after ten years in the regions top job, Senator Andrea Leadsom went on to win the Tory Primary and was duly nominated as their candidate. A Eurosceptic from the right of the party, Leadsom had a tight three-way battle to seize the East Midlands. Leadsom ran a traditional Conservative campaign pledging lower taxes and support for business, and whilst it was on a knifes edge, she was declared Premier after seven recounts.

Labour nominated outgoing Federal Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth, Ashworth pointed to his achievements as Health Secretary, including increased pay for NHS workers and investments in small towns as evidence he was the right man to be Premier. However, Ashworth struggled with his Europhilic beliefs in the overwhelmingly anti-EU East Midlands and ended up narrowly losing to Leadsom.

The Brexit Alliance nominated Peter Bone, the former Tory Mayor turned UKIP regional Senator who had defected to the Brexit Alliance over Batten's shift to the right. As the Commonwealth's most Eurosceptic region and Bones' high profile, hopes were high in the Brexit Alliance, Bone performed well in the first few rounds, but transfers from UKIP voters failed to materialise, and he was eliminated on the 6th round.

As for the minor parties, UKIP nominated East Midlands Assembly Member Alan Graves, who performed surprisingly well considering the state UKIP was in nationally, the Liberal Democrats Bill Newton-Dunn was attacked for his pro-EU beliefs, as was the Green's Richard Mallender, both performing poorly. UfC MP Chris Leslie also ran, receiving just 6% of the vote. Finally, Mansfield Mayor Kate Allsop ran as an Independent after losing the Brexit Alliance primary to Bone.

"A former UKIP Senator is set to speak at the Brexit Party's conference, fuelling rumours of more defections to Nigel Farage's party. Peter Bone is set to appear at the February conference Llandudno to rally support for the Brexit Alliance. Bone was elected Mayor of Northampton in 2009 as a Conservative, before defecting to UKIP in 2014, giving the party it's first Mayor. Bone would on to lead UKIP in the East Midlands Senate from 2015-2018 before resigning from the party to sit as an Independent. The Brexit Alliance has announced that politicians from Ukip, the Tories the Libertarians and Labour will come together under its umbrella. Defectors are expected on a cross-party basis, potentially including a Labour figure such as former Lambeth Mayor Kate Hoey. Brexit Alliance chairman Colin Lambert (a former Labour minister in the North West Government) said: "We are delighted to be welcoming Peter Bone and others to our conference in Wales. This is yet more evidence that we are seeing a coming together of most groups of people who wish to see our country free and independent." - Peter Bone to address Brexit Alliance conference fuelling more defection rumours, Nicola Bartlett, The Mirror (2019)

 

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The world was quickly giving up on containing the virus to China

“Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be possible to contain the new Chinese coronavirus. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world. “The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled,” said Dr. Allison McGeer. McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be. The assessment comes from researchers studying the dynamics of the outbreak and parsing studies. The warnings come as the United States reported over the weekend finding two more cases, the country’s third and fourth. Two were diagnosed in California. One is a traveller from Wuhan, where the outbreak is believed to have started, who was diagnosed in Orange County. The other is someone who visited Wuhan who was diagnosed in Los Angeles County.” - Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, Helen Branswell, STAT Nes (2020)

With coronavirus still, a relative novelty and most political eyes focused on May’s election, issues of the economy and competence continued to dominate. There was controversy in the South West after the South West Parliament voted 83 to 46 in favour of plans by Premier Liam Fox and Bristol Mayor Marvin Rees to expand Bristol Airport, despite protests from locals. The airport, about seven miles south of Bristol, was last given permission to expand in 2010 from 6 million to 9 million passengers a year. It had reached it's capacity and wanted to increase the number of passengers it could handle to 11 million. Plans included extending the passenger terminus and plane taxiways. The proposal also featured more than 2,000 extra car-parking spaces – much of it on greenbelt land – and major changes to roads around the airport. The airport argued that expanding the airport would generate an extra £1.3bn to the regional economy over the next decade. More than 80,000 people objected to the expansion, and XR organised a protest with dozens of activists burying their heads in the sand at a nearby beach. The objectors claimed the scheme would lead to an increase in people suffering from asthma.

Labour and the Greens were split on Bristol airport expansion

“Campaigners plan to stage a protest day at Bristol Airport over proposals for expansion. The expansion of the airport would mean a 50% rise in aviation carbon emissions this decade. The action is in response to the airport’s application for planning permission, which is open for consultation. The plans would mean the airport’s greenhouse gas emissions increasing from 2017 levels of 700 to over 1,000-kilotons of CO2 per year. XR, said: “Bristol Airport is trying to expand, accommodating 20 million passengers by 2040. This is a reckless decision, which is not congruent with the action necessary to safeguard our common future.” Bristol and South West regional campaigners are thus asking people to object to the proposals.” - Extinction Rebellion to stage a 'die-in' at Bristol Airport in opposition to expansion, Alex Morss, The Ecologist (2020)

Bristol Airport’s expansion showed how stark regional differences were in the Commonwealth, with Liam Fox announcing expansion mere weeks after Miliband had attended COP26’s opening ceremony. Opposition politicians decried Miliband’s weakness, unable to stop Fox’s airport expansion, despite being elected just a year earlier, Miliband was looking increasingly like an exhausted lame duck, without a way to revive his premiership. Environmentalist groups like Extinction Rebellion were increasingly breaking with the coalition, taking matters into their own hands and launching direct action to stop airport expansion or HS2 construction.

The clash over Bristol Airport would quickly be forgotten as the pandemic escalated with the first death on British soil. Buckingham now warned that it was now likely that the virus would spread in “a significant way”. It was thought the victim contracted the virus in Britain and had not been in contact with any other known cases. The woman, who was admitted to hospital in Reading, had been “in and out of hospital” with underlying health conditions, the hospital said. Ed Miliband said that “our sympathies are very much with the victim and their family”. With the number of cases in Britain more than doubling from less than 50 two days earlier to a hundred, the government enacted a major change in policy. Chief Medical Adviser Van-Tam announced that some of those confirmed to have contracted the virus should be treated at home. “We’ve moved to a situation where people have minimal symptoms and they can self-isolate. It’s safer for them to self-isolate in their own homes, with support,” said Van-Tam. “Anybody who needs hospitalisation will be hospitalised.” The first fatality was among seven infections where officials had not identified how they contracted the virus.

Covid-19 was still a relatively unkown mystery disease

“In all, 2019-nCoV has 29,000 nucleotides bases that hold the genetic instruction book to produce the virus. Although it’s one of the many viruses whose genes are in the form of RNA, scientists convert the viral genome into DNA, to make it easier to study. The sharing of the sequences by Chinese researchers allowed labs around the world to develop their own diagnostics. When the first 2019-nCoV sequence became available, researchers found that it was mostly related to relatives found in bats. A team led by Shi Zheng-Li, a coronavirus specialist, reported that 2019-nCoV had 79.5% similarity to the coronavirus that causes SARS. But the SARS coronavirus has a close relationship to bat viruses. Sequence data make a powerful case that it jumped into people from a coronavirus in civets that differed from human SARS viruses. That’s one reason why many scientists suspect there’s an “intermediary” host species—or several—between bats and 2019-nCoV. The bat coronavirus sequence that Shi Zheng-Li’s team highlighted, differs from 2019-nCoV by 1100 nucleotides.” - Mining coronavirus genomes for clues to the outbreak’s origins, Jon Cohen, Science Magazine (2020)

A few days later President Miliband announced Britain would move from the “contain” to the “delay” stage of the response plan. It came as a third person had died from the virus in Britain. By the second week of March, cases had reached 300 with the Government announcing nationwide social distancing measures. Buckingham said the President was "guided by the best scientific advice" as sporting events were cancelled. Health Secretary Barry Gardiner told MPs the government has enlisted an extra 800 people to support a growing number of enquiries to 111. Gardiner added that a bill to help tackle the outbreak would be "temporary and proportionate". The FTSE 100, faced its worst day since the financial crisis after it fell by more than 10%, wiping tens of billions off the value of major firms. Chancellor Tom Brake announced The Bank of England would take "all necessary steps to protect financial and monetary stability." Further restrictions included a ban large gatherings, and encouraging people to work from home.

The coalition ordered all non-essential workers to work from home

The Bank of England announced an emergency cut in interest rates to shore up the economy amid the coronavirus outbreak. Policymakers reduced rates from 0.8% to 0.3%, taking borrowing costs back down to the lowest level in history. The Bank said it would also free up billions of pounds of extra lending power to help banks support firms. Jon Cunliffe, the governor of the Bank of England, said policymakers had seen a "sharp fall in trading conditions". "The Bank of England's role is to help British businesses and households manage through an economic shock that could prove large," he said. Cunliffe stressed that the economic damage caused by the coronavirus remained unclear. But he suggested that the British economy could shrink in the coming months. He said early evidence from China suggested that the world's second-largest economy was on course to contract in the first quarter. Other nations were experiencing a "similar shift", he said. "I would emphasise the direction is clear, though the orders of size are still to be determined."

With Thornberry reitring in two months time, Britain had a lame duck PM during a national crisis

With a maelstrom erupting, Miliband found himself thrust into Britain’s greatest crisis in over a decade. With countries like China and Italy locking down and bringing in the military, Miliband faced a triple-pronged threat of pandemic deaths, economic collapse and public panic. The Commonwealth’s finances were hardly in the best shape before the pandemic, a crash now could be catastrophic. Considering his low approval ratings Miliband faced an uphill battle to maintain public trust and unite the country behind, but behind closed doors in Buckingham, as Chancellor Brake tried to draw up an emergency budget and Secretary Gardiner tried to keep the virus under control, Miliband was faced with a big red lockdown button. London had already entered into a regional lockdown, with Scotland and Northern Ireland expected to follow, would Miliband step in, or leave it to the regions?

“But as we prohibit unnecessary social contact of all kinds, it is right that we should extend these instructions to mass gatherings as well. So from tomorrow, we will be prohibiting mass gatherings of over 12 people. I know that many people may feel, listening to what I have said, that there is something excessive about these measures. But I have to say, they are worth it to slow the spread of the disease, to reduce the peak, to save lives, minimise suffering and to give our NHS the chance to cope. Over the last few days, I have been talking to leaders around the world and I can tell you that Britain is now leading a growing global campaign. We’re leading a campaign to fight back against this disease. To make sure that humanity has access to the drugs and the treatments that we all need, and Britain is also at the front of the effort to back humanity. I know that today we are asking a lot of everybody. It is far more now than washing your hands. But across this country, people are responding to the challenge that we face, and I want to thank everybody for the part that you are playing.” - Ed Miliband speaking at a Buckingham Press Conference (2020)

Miliband was ghostly white as he announced new restrictions, with some advisers calling for a national lockdown

“To what extent can President Miliband be blamed for the damage to the economy in 2020? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam

 

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Amidst the pandemonium, Chancellor Brake had to deliver the last budget before the election

“The Chancellor has his last bite of the Budget cherry this year. We’re calling on Mr Brake to put in place sensible tax reform to redress the economic imbalance that exists across the Commonwealth. “Traditionally, the last budget of a parliament is a spree one. But factors like the growth of Covid-19 and Emily Thornberry's lame-duck leadership may mean that the Chancellor decides to keep some of his powder dry. Instead of making the November Budget a far more expansive fiscal event. Whatever he decides, we’re looking to the government to use this week’s Budget as an opportunity. We want the Government to play its part and outline plans to invest in Yorkshire and help spread the wealth right across the country. Forecasts not only highlighted the North-South divide but also the growing disparity between cities and towns. The Chancellor is, to some degree, constrained in what changes he can make, but there are certain tax levers he can pull.” - Ernest & Young CB Chair Hywel Ball, speaking with the Yorkshire Times (2020)

Northern Premiers like Yvette Cooper called for further investment in their regions

Amidst a worsening economic crisis, Chancellor Tom Brake was called upon to deliver the 2020 budget. Brake promised the budget's main plan would be to tackle the "social care crisis". Brake told MPs social care services would need more money to cope with the coronavirus outbreak. He said he was "worried" about the future, as he announced extra funding to help the NHS. Brake announced at least £6bn for the NHS and £2 billion for social care to help cope with the spread of the virus. Amidst this Health Secretary Barry Gardiner wrote to MPs to start cross-party talks to find a long-term solution on healthcare. Around 900,000 people in the Commonwealth were receiving long-term care. With a pandemic and an ageing population, demand was expected to increase. In his speech, Brake accused the Conservatives of having failed to acknowledge pressures faced by the sector. Brake announced a statutory sick pay rise, and an increase in scope to cover those on zero-hours contracts. Speaking after the Budget was delivered, Rishi Sunak said the spending plans did not do "anything" for struggling businesses. "We have a business sector on its knees."

Miliband was prioritsing public health and support for isolating workers over businesses subsidies and the economy, further exacerbating the fiancial collapse

Brakes’ announcements did little to stop the economic collapse as the FTSE 100 plunged by nearly 15%, it’s worst drop since the 1980s. In the US, the Dow and S&P 500 were also hit by their steepest daily falls since 1987. The declines came despite actions by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to ease financial strains. At the start of US trading, plummeting shares triggered an unusual automatic suspension in trading for the second time in a week. When trade resumed 15 minutes later, shares continued to fall, taking cues from the slide in European markets. The S&P 500 fell 10% while losses on the UK's FTSE 100 wiped some £200bn off the market. In France and Germany, indexes cratered more than 13%. "Markets are at a breaking point," warned Conservative Senate Finance Committee Chair Jim O'Neill. "No one knows what a total economic shutdown looks like." The declines came after the US restricted travel from mainland Europe. Losses on European indexes accelerated after the eurozone's central bank failed to cut interest rates. The New York branch of the Federal Reserve said it was pumping $2tr to ease strains in the debt markets, offering increased overnight loans to banks.

“Although the size of the economic shock from Covid-19 is uncertain, activity is likely to weaken over the coming months. Temporary disruptions to supply chains and weaker activity could challenge cash flows. The CCFF will provide funding to businesses by purchasing commercial paper of up to one-year maturity, issued by firms. It will help businesses across a range of sectors to pay wages even while experiencing severe disruption to cash flows. The facility will offer financing on terms comparable to those prevailing in markets in the period before the Covid-19 shock. CCFF will be open to firms that can prove they were in financial health before the shock. The facility will base eligibility on firms’ credit ratings before Covid-19. Businesses do not need to have before issued commercial paper to take part. The scheme will operate for as long as steps are needed to relieve cash flow pressures on firms. The Bank will put in place the facility on behalf of the Commonwealth Treasury.” - Statement by Bank of England Governor Jon Cunliffe (2020)

Cunliffe was unable to stop the collapse of several large British businesses

The crisis also raised questions for the General Election, just two months away the purdah campaigning period was set to begin in a matter of weeks. The Commonwealth was one of only three major democracies, the others being the US and Norway, not to have a constitutional mechanism to bring ahead, delay or cancel elections, the election was constitutionally mandated to take place on May 7th. The ban on snap elections had been brought in under the 99 coalition by Liberal Democrats afraid that the rug would be pulled out from under them. This meant that without a constitutional amendment the May elections could not be delayed or cancelled. With the Tories still ahead in the polls, it would be almost impossible to generate the political will needed to change the constitution. Instead, Miliband announced the election would be moved entirely to postal votes, all citizens would automatically be registered for a postal vote and polling places would be shut. A ban on face-to-face campaigning such as canvassing and leafleting would also be brought in. Meanwhile, visitor access to Parliament would be restricted. Commons Speaker Chris Bryant said the "proportionate" measures would help preserve Parliament.

“In line with the latest Government advice and guidance from Public Health, all visitor access to the Estate will stop. Access will be restricted to pass holders and those on essential Parliamentary business. This decision, consistent with the latest Government advice, has been taken by the Speakers of both Houses. The steps are supported by the Clerks of both Houses and Parliamentary authorities. The viewing galleries, used by visitors to watch proceedings in the Chambers, will be closed and tours of Parliament will stop. The Education Centre will be closed and school tours will also pause. MPs, Senators and Parliamentary staff will work from home where possible. The Speaker of the House of Commons, Sir Lindsay Hoyle and the Senate Presiding Officer Nigel Evans said. "Parliament should continue to fulfil its important constitutional duties of passing legislation. To preserve the operation of Parliament, it is our duty to reduce the risk to those who work on the Parliamentary Estate and those who have to visit.” - Press Release by the British Parliament (2020)

The usually bustling Parliamentary estate was a ghost town

On the 14th of March, as the 20th person died of the virus, and the 1,000th case was confirmed, Buckingham decided enough was enough. Four regions: London, Scotland, Northern Ireland and the South East, had already gone into regional lockdown, now the Federal Government would step in and announce a national lockdown. Miliband announced people could only leave their once a day, to exercise, shop for essential items and fulfil any medical or care needs. Shops selling non-essential goods were ordered to shut and gatherings of people who did not live together were prohibited. Police were given powers to enforce the rules, including fines and dispersing gatherings. Miliband said the country faced a "moment of national emergency" and staying at home was necessary to protect the NHS and save lives. He said the restrictions would be in place for at least a month and would be kept under constant review. Several police forces said they were facing a high number of phone calls from members of the public seeking clarification. East Midlands Police Chief Constable Nick Adderley warned the public not to "cripple" his force's phone lines. Michelle Skeer, chair of the NPCC, said they were working with the government and other agencies to work out how best to enforce the new rules. But the Metropolitan Police Federation said they were already seeing sickness among officers.

Most regions responded to Miliband’s announcements well, four of the twelve had already entered a lockdown, with a further three planning additional measures anyway. The only real pushback came from South West Premier Liam Fox and East Midlands Premier Andrea Leadsom. Fox pointed towards the lack of cases in the South West, arguing a nationally enforced lockdown would damage the region’s economy, especially it’s vast tourism industry. Leadsom too protested a harsh lockdown would severely damage East Midlands businesses. Despite some grumbling, the lockdown was popular and had broad cross-party support, with all parties except UKIP and the Brexit Alliance supporting restrictions, whilst Miliband had achieved rare unity, he still had an economic crisis and a growing virus to contend with.

“Miliband will have to make decisions in the dark, weighing reasonable expectations of what will happen if he does or does not act in certain ways. He will be presented with scenarios that consider strains on a health system dealing with other illnesses—as well as deaths from COVID-19. Kissinger explained the dilemma of leadership: “The most difficult issues are those whose necessity you cannot prove when the decisions are made. You act on a guess, so that public opinion knows, usually, only when it is too late to act, when some catastrophe has become overwhelming.” Miliband, then—and U.S. President Donald Trump - will be judged in hindsight for decisions taken without that privilege. Did he overreact or underreact? the public will ask. Did he calm a volatile situation or induce panic? Did he show leadership or reveal a lack of it? Is he up to the job? Faced with trying to ensure public confidence in his leadership, Miliband’s first reaction was to turn to experts. Those experts immediately threw the ball back to him." - The Coronavirus Is More Than Just a Health Crisis, Tom McTague, The Atlantic (2020)

The all-encompassing nature of COVID was becoming clear

“What were the political ramifications of the March 14th lockdown? (30 Marks)”- A Level Politics Exam

 

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Empty supermarket shelves fulled panic amongst the populous

“Photographs of empty supermarket shelves in news stories instigate people to follow the frenzy. Our study found that those exposed to images of empty supermarket shelves were more likely to panic buy. A news story accompanied by an image of empty shelves saw an increase of 80% in the number of people who said this would make them want to panic buy. Also, 30% of participants in the study admitted to stockpiling supplies. Respondents were shown news items accompanied by either image of empty supermarket shelves or full shelves. They were then asked to record their level of panic and intention to stockpile, amongst other variables. Also, participants were asked to rate how likely they were to click on one of the articles if the headline was accompanied by a picture of empty shelves. The articles with empty shelves received 30% more clicks compared to full shelves. When the imagery shows an empty shelf, people are drawn to the fact that others have already acted and that they are behind the curve. This ends up negating positive and pro-social messages in the article itself.” - Photos of empty supermarket shelves instigate panic buying, Lecture by Rob Angell (2020)

Governments and Supermarkets began to put in limits on how many items customers could buy

As lockdown came into effect Britain was gripped by panic as supermarket shelves were cleared. Supermarkets urged shoppers not to buy more than they need amid concern over stockpiling. In a joint letter, British retailers reminded customers to be considerate in their shopping, so that others are not left without. "There is enough for everyone if we all work together," it added. Some shops began rationing the sales of certain products to avoid them selling out completely. In the letter, the retailers said online and click-and-collect services were at "full capacity" and staff were "working day and night". The retailers said they were working with the government to make more deliveries to stores so that shelves are well-stocked. "We understand your concerns but buying more than is needed can sometimes mean that others will be left without," the letter read. That was echoed by Sainsbury's boss Kevin O’Byrne, who said: "There are gaps, but we have new stock arriving and we're doing our best to keep shelves stocked." In a plea to shoppers, he said: "Please think before you buy and only buy what you and your family need."

The pandemic transformed previously unkown supermarket execs to minor celebrities

In an attempt to curb public uncertainty, Buckingham announced a set of daily press conferences across the lockdown. The briefing was mostly about steps the government was taking to protect elderly and vulnerable people. Miliband had been criticised for saying over 70s were not to leave the house even for exercise, and this was reversed in an embarrassing u-turn. The over-70s were told they were allowed to go out for walks when their period of staying at home begins. Most of those who died in the Commonwealth had been people over the age of 60 with underlying health conditions. More than 50,000 people had been tested in the Commonwealth. Tests were primarily being given to hospital patients, and to people in care facilities. The head of the World Health Organization, Soumya Swaminathan, said not enough tests were being carried out. "We have a simple message for all countries: test, test, test," she said - adding that the WHO had sent out almost 2 million tests to 130 countries. Conferences would be led by the President or senior ministers. The briefings followed criticism of Buckingham for a lack of transparency over its plans to stem the spread of the virus.

“A senior White House official has called on Beijing to be more transparent over its handling of the coronavirus outbreak. “We are a little disappointed in the lack of transparency coming from the Chinese,” said the White House's Larry Kudlow. His comments came after Chinese authorities said they had altered how they count cases, resulting in confusion. On Thursday, Hubei officials reported a large spike in cases after including those confirmed by CT scans. The revision added 1,000 deaths to the Chinese toll. Then on Friday, China added 200 new deaths – but also removed 100 fatalities from the total, due to “duplicate statistics”. In its latest update, the commission reported over 200 new deaths and nearly 600 new coronavirus cases. This brings the total number of people infected to nearly 100,000 worldwide, with 70% of the cases in China. The commission did not give further explanation of the double-counted cases on Friday. “The drastic measures China have implemented would appear to have been too little, too late,” said Adam Kamradt-Scott, an infectious diseases expert.” - Senior US official accuses China of lack of transparency, Lily Kuo, The guardian (2020)

In foreign policy news, the Trump administration and Bejing had an increasingly beligerant relationship

In order to protect workers unable to work from home, the coalition announced an “emergency universal basic income” of £1,500 a month. President Ed Miliband backed proposals to pilot the policy that would see the government offer regular payments. Joking that he had “become more radical with age”, on BBC's Andrew Marr Show. Setting out his views on the bold policy idea, the President said the “massive change” would be piloted from the end of March and if it was successful it would be extended. “I am a supporter of the UBI,” Miliband said. “One because the current welfare system is intrusive, demeaning, and doesn’t have that much popular support. There’s a chap called Matthew Taylor who runs the RSA. He’s got this thing, which is the power to choose. It’s a very good way of putting it, which is the attraction of a UBI as it gives people more choice in life. More choice about caring, and values caring roles. More choices about the jobs they take. It gives people a platform.” Miliband added that automation is “not the main reason for it” but “in the background” as another good argument in favour of adopting UBI. “It’s a big, big change,” the President continued.

“This is not the time for austerity,” said Ed Miliband in a joint address to the Houses of Parliament. “The British people should not have to take on debt that their government can better shoulder.” Attendance to Miliband's speech was limited to a handful of high-ranking officials, with most MPs watching online. Miliband delivered a programme of promises designed to help the country withstand Covid-19. The speech left open possibilities for Miliband's government to adopt radical, longer-term measures. It contained promises of expensive extra support for child care and prescription drugs, as well as millions of new jobs. And, most excitingly to the left, a direct mention of a basic income model. Seven Cabinet Ministers have already proposed a guaranteed minimum income, which MPs voted to fast-track to the Commons floor. Under the proposed guaranteed income model, the government would top up incomes with £1,500 a month for the duration of lockdown.” - Why Basic Income is now on the table, Helen Lewis, New Statesman (2020)

UBI was a radical policy, but it might be the only way to save Britain's welfare system

By this point, despite the lockdown COVID deaths had shot up to 80 fatalities, with nearly 7,000 confirmed cases. The Department for Health announced the latest figures on the tenth day of national lockdown, with the majority of deaths in London. The total of 80 was up from 50 deaths announced the week before. The latest patients to die were in vulnerable groups or had underlying conditions, the NHS said. Twenty of the deaths came from the North London NHS trust, which declared a critical incident after it ran out of intensive care beds. London's Cabinet Secretary for Health Onkar Sahota said that the majority of the region's deaths took place in poorer and ethnic minority communities. "It is significant - there are more deaths in these neighbourhoods than anywhere else in the country," Sahota added. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Commonwealth now stood at just over 7,000, up by around a thousand in a week. Over 100,000 people in the Commonwealth had been tested for COVID-19. This prompted Vice President Harman to warn: "Unless you stay at home then the people you love most may die."

Whilst lockdown had failed to stop a surge in cases, the hope amongst the Government was that the restrictions would begin to “flatten the curve”. Miliband’s emergency UBI split the country and was slammed in the press for its billion-pound price tag, with the financial crisis only getting worse, opposition politicians like Sunak warned now was not the time for expensive irresponsible and untested new policies. But with businesses collapsing and record levels of unemployment and benefit claimants perhaps radical policies were what the country needed. The COVID-19 pandemic would either represent a chance for Labour to radically transform the country, or it would be the death rattle of a dying administration, with months to go before the election, one way or another, it would all be over soon.

“There are several changes that could be made to make it safer to hold elections with the coronavirus pandemic ongoing. Holding the elections with all-postal ballots is just one measure the Government is taking. But, the opposition parties have stated they believe all-postal ballots increase the risk of fraud. Despite these concerns, the number of people voting by post is going to increase. This means that preparations have been made to process and count large numbers of postal ballots. For example, the deadline to register for a postal ballot has been brought forward, to allow time to process applications. Other changes include social distancing measures provision of masks and hand sanitiser at counts. This week the Electoral Commission published a report on conducting elections during covid-19. It concluded that, with appropriate planning, elections can be conducted under coronavirus restrictions.” - COVID Elections, Institute for Government, Alex Nice (2020)

Despite the pandemic, the 2020 elections would be going ahead

““Emergency UBI was a sensible policy”, how far do you agree? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam

 

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As well as a virus, Premier Sturgeon had the Salmond trial to deal with

"Due process must take its course and a court makes its decision, and that's what's happened today. I have no doubt that there will be further discussion around this issue in due course, in the fullness of time, and I will welcome that. But that time is not now. This country faces a crisis right now bigger than anything we've ever faced before. As Premier my duty to the public is to do everything I can and to focus 100% on steering us through that crisis and that's what I intend to do. I stand by what I said to parliament. I will be very happy in the fullness of time to set out my role and to set out and explain the actions I took. All along my consideration has been ensuring that complaints of this nature that are brought forward are not swept under the carpet. Cases must be investigated and decisions are arrived at. In this country as in all countries, women have to be able to come forward if they have complaints of this nature and that's important for everybody." - Nicola Sturgeon, speaking to STV News (2020)

Scotland was headed by two women: First Minister Kate Forbes and Premier Sturgeon

North of the border, a storm had arrived as former SNP Leader Alex Salmond was cleared of sexual assault charges. A jury found Salmond not guilty on 12 of the sexual assault charges facing him, while another was found not proven. A further charge of assaulting a 10th woman had been dropped by prosecutors. Salmond had said he was innocent of all the charges against him throughout the trial. The women who made the allegations against Salmond included an SNP politician, a party worker and several civil servants. Salmond said the claims made about his conduct were "deliberate fabrications for a political purpose". And he said he had "never attempted to have non-consensual sexual relations with anyone in my entire life". Salmond's team had claimed that one of his accusers had contacted some of the other complainers before Salmond was charged. Defence lawyer Gordon Jackson told the jury: "That stinks. It stinks". Jackson also said his client had not always behaved well and could have been "a better man on occasions" - but had never assaulted anyone.

The SNP’s troubles would now move from the legal realm to the political, as Salmond was cleared, several Salmond allies such as Senators Joanna Cherry and Kenny McAskill called for unspecified heads to roll. Whilst for many politicians the pandemic had been a disaster, for Sturgeon it might turn out to be her saving grace, with the nation’s media distracted and the political situation too fraught for the SNP’s Salmondites and fundamentalists to challenge her authority, she could put a cork in the SNP’s internal troubles for now, but as time went on her internal problems would be harder to contain, the SNP just had to hold itself together until May, but doing that would be a daunting challenge.

“It took the Brown government 11 years to fall apart and lose the 2008 Election. Before that, it was 18 years for the Conservatives, a party which puts holding onto power far, far above the indulgence of internecine warfare. In Scotland, the SNP has now been in charge of the government for nearly 7 years – is it’s time also coming to an end? It has for a long time appeared that the SNP had learned many valuable lessons from the problems with which Labour wrestled in the 1980s and 90s. The most vital lesson being the need for strict internal discipline to win and keep power. It’s not for nothing the SNP membership has to agree not to criticise decisions, policy or other members when they sign up to pay their subs. But, 7 years is a long time to keep the troops toe-ing the line. Especially for a party which only has one policy that draws such a broad kirk of people together: independence. With this end appearing to be as far away as ever, cracks and splits over other issues are becoming obvious on a weekly basis.” - After 7 years, is the SNP losing grip on power?, Gina Davidson, The Scotsman (2020)

The SNP would face a tough fight at the 2020 Scottish Parliament elections

In COVID news, Health Secretary Barry Gardiner announced a new “nightingale” scheme of federally funded temporary hospitals in the worst-hit parts of the country, starting with the Excel Centre in London. The exhibition space, which had been used in the past for Crufts and Comic-Con, would hold up to 5,000 patients. The temporary base would be staffed by NHS medics with the help of the military. It would provide about 600 beds equipped with ventilators and oxygen. The Ministry of Defence said a team of military planners had visited the centre along with NHS London staff at the weekend. Defence Secretary Starmer said the military was also seeking out other locations to treat patients. Similar plans had been undertaken in other countries, such as patients being treated in the IFEMA exhibition centre in Madrid. A hospital in the French city of Mulhouse was using its car park as a field hospital. The temporary NHS hospital's staff included students and retired nurses and doctors. In response to Britain's call for retired medics to return to the NHS, Gardiner said more than 12,000 had come forward, including 3,000 doctors. More than 20,000 student nurses and 6,000 final year medics also joined the NHS workforce, he said.

Concern around covid would only raise as former President Michael Howard announced he had tested positive for the virus. Howard was displaying mild symptoms "but otherwise remains in good health", a spokesman said. Howard and his wife Sandra began self-isolating at their home in Folkestone. Howard's office added that the President was now "following all the appropriate advice with regard to his welfare". The full statement read: "Under medical advice, the former President is now self-isolating at home in Folkestone. It is not possible to learn from whom the former President caught the virus owing to the high number of engagements he carried out in his public role." A Buckingham source said President Miliband had spoken to both Howard and his wife Sandra, and that they were both in good spirits. Prime Minister Thornberry said she had been informed about the former President's test and she wished him "a speedy recovery". Howard had become somewhat of a minor national treasure, as the Commonwealth's longest-serving major figure with ten years as President. If a former President wasn't safe then no-one was. Over the next few days several other senior politicians would test positive, including Vice President Harriet Harman, Health Secretary Barry Gardiner and London Senator Boris Johnson.

Harman would be the most senior politican to test postive

“Vice President Harriet Harman has tested positive for coronavirus and is self-isolating. She said she had experienced mild symptoms over the past 24 hours, including a temperature and cough, but would continue to work. Health Secretary Barry Gardiner said he had also tested positive while Senator Boris Johnson has shown symptoms. Over a hundred people died with the virus in the past day, figures showed. It takes the total number of UK deaths to 700, with over 10,000 confirmed cases. The daily coronavirus news conference was led by Prime Minister Thornberry. It follows mounting criticism from NHS staff over a lack of testing - currently, only patients in a hospital are being tested. "This will be antigen testing so that our health workers can have security in the knowledge that they are safe to return to work," Thornberry said. The BMA, which represents doctors, said mass testing was "long overdue" and the lack of testing so far had been "frustrating". Thornberry also announced plans for three further field hospitals in Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds.” - Vice President Harriet Harman tests positive, BBC News (2020)

New Nightingale hopsitals weren't coming fast enough

Major figures falling ill not only panicked the public but raised concerns around the safety of President Miliband and Prime Minister Thornberry, who both had close contact with Harman and Gardiner. Harman, in her late 70s, was an especially worrying case as she was in a high-risk category, as was the overweight Senator Johnson. Furthermore, these high profile cases shook public trust in the Government and increasingly made the Miliband administration look weak and lockdown seem futile if the Government couldn’t protect its own Vice President who could they protect? As Harman and the other isolating politicians received an outpouring of support, the administration was quickly losing control as they scrambled to prevent further cases.

“We are confronting a situation in which the shortcomings of the regulatory agendas have become clear. Not least in curbing heightened risks associated with shadow banking and in curbing reliance on the US Federal Reserve. There are few good options for providing the finance that will be required for a colossal number of firms in Britain if depression is to be averted. With direct central bank financing of household spending now an imperfect but less-bad approach to stimulus. The pandemic has exposed the fragility and inadequacy of the British welfare state. As the state scrambles to introduce and augment some forms of welfare provision it is clear that basic insurance is required. Jobseekers Allowance is a failing system which is unlikely to be able to cope with the strain it has now been placed under. The support available for the self-employed is particularly inadequate. We should rethink the social security status of the self-employed.” - The Covid Manifesto, Lecture by Craig Berry, Manchester Metropolitan University (2020)

DWP Secretary Angela Rayner was charged with overhauling the British welfare system and brining in an emergency basic income

“How successful was Ed Miliband at controlling the COVID-19 virus? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam

 

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The West Midlands had been ruled by Premier Caroline Spelman since 2009. The West Midlands was the only region in the Commonwealth to flip with Labour capturing both the Premiership and the region's Senate. Labour was led by Jack Dromey, a veteran trade union organiser who campaigned on expanding welfare and increasing pensions, targeting older voters in the West Midland's towns and cities, Labour managed to hold steady, gaining a single seat.

The Conservatives in the Senate were led by Jeremy Wright, a rather milk toast moderate who faced defections to the Brexit Alliance to his right and UfC to his left. The West Midlands Tories faced a split when the region's Health Secretary Stephen Dorrell defected to UfC, taking a few Assembly Members with him. The split coupled with Wright's poor campaigning left the Tories losing four Senators.

The Brexit Alliance was led by businessman Rupert Lowe, the former Chair of Southampton Football Club and a member of the FA's board. Lowe was a strong supporter of working with the Conservatives but his approaches for a joint ticket were rebuffed by Wright. The Brexit Alliance benefited from Lowe's vast wealth of Wright's weakness to take five seats in the West Midlands Senate, making them the third-largest party.

As for minor parties - The Lib Dems managed to poach West Midlands CBI Chair, Beverly Nielsen, as their lead candidate, however, she failed to gain them extra seats, UKIP lost a considerable number of votes to the BA, falling to just 3 seats. UfC were led by former West Midlands Cabinet Secretary for Health Stephen Dorrell, who gained the party two seats.

The Greens held steady on two, meanwhile former Respect Senator Salma Yaqoob managed to break the 4% threshold in South Birmingham, gaining a seat as an Independent with 16% of the region's vote share.

"Brexit Alliance Senator Rupert Lowe has donated the full cost of a television licence - plus 50 pence on top - to a campaign aimed at defunding the BBC. The ex-Southampton FC chairman, who took a swipe at the corporation's "arrogance", announced his decision on social media. Mr Lowe tweeted: "I'm so fed up with the BBC's sneering arrogance, I've decided to donate the cost of a licence fee to @DefundBBC (50p spare!)". In relation to the campaign, which seeks to decriminalise non-payment of the licence fee, Lowe added: "Their work is worth supporting. The money will be far better spent with them. Retweet this if you think we should Defund the BBC!" Mr Lowe is not the only prominent Brexiteer to back the idea of scrapping the licence fee. Nigel Farage tweeted: "The only thing that needs cancelling is the BBC itself." The campaign had raised £50,000 towards its target of £90,000. The gofundme page states: "Our aim is simple – we want to decriminalise non-payment of the TV licence fee."" - Brexiteer Rupert Lowe makes a symbolic donation to Defund BBC campaign, Catherine McGrath, The Express (2019)

 

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The Russian Revolution shook the world, would Covid be the next major realignment?

“There are decades in which nothing happens, and there are weeks in which decades happen.” - Vladimir Lennin (1917)

The country’s financial crisis only got worse as the lockdown bit British business. Eight million workers were expected to lose their jobs. The cost of Universal Basic Income to the taxpayer over three months was an eye-watering £50bn, alongside other support for business. Fresh figures from the BCC suggested a sixth of smaller firms planned to fire all their staff. And 50% of companies had to make at least some redundancies. Companies saw their incomes plummet because of the shutdown. The Resolution Foundation predicted that at least a quarter of private-sector employees would lose their jobs over the lockdown. The cost to the government for emergency UBI was roughly similar to the amount the government spends each year on police and safety. If the shutdown continues beyond May and into the summer, the cost could be even greater. A Treasury spokesman said: "The Government is going everything it can to keep people in employment and protect incomes." BCC director-general Hannah Essex told the BBC: "So many businesses around the country need cash. If they don't receive some of the funding by the end of this month, many of them are going to have to take drastic steps.

The hospitality industry was quickly collapsing

Amid business’ worsening position and with Easter around the corner, voices began to appear calling for an easing of restrictions. President Miliband urged the public to stay indoors over the Easter weekend, telling people: "Let's not ruin it now." He said after a month of lockdown "we are starting to see the impact of the sacrifices we've all made". Miliband said it was still "too early" to lift the restrictions. Just under 7,000 people had died in hospital after testing positive for coronavirus. At the government's daily briefing, Miliband said a decision on whether to ease the lockdown measures would not come for "several weeks". Miliband stressed that the lockdown restrictions would have to stay in place until Britain had moved beyond the peak of the virus. He said: "After all the efforts everybody has made, after all the sacrifices so many people have made let's not undo the gains we've made, let's not waste the sacrifices so many people have made. We mustn't give the coronavirus a second chance to kill more people and to hurt our country." The President was speaking ahead of a bank holiday weekend which has been forecast to be warm. Buckingham said it gave its "full backing" to police forces to enforce the lockdown rules.

“Police attempts to stop the public flouting lockdown could breach human rights laws, Senators have warned. A report by the Senate Committee on Human Rights said police may be punishing members of the public “without any legal basis”. It said “widespread confusion on what people are and are not permitted to do” was leading to violations of fundamental freedoms. There has already been at least one miscarriage of justice, which saw a woman fined £660 under the Coronavirus Act 2020 for a crime she did not commit. Alok Sharma, chair of the Senate Committee on Human Rights, called the lockdown “the most significant and blanket interference with individual liberty in modern times”. He said the measures can only be lawful “if the measures interfere with civil liberties to the extent necessary and are enforced in a clear manner. Sharma, added: “It remains a concern that some police forces will take a more proactive approach than is necessary and even unlawful.”” - Police enforcement of lockdown measures over Easter could breach human rights laws, Lizzie Dearden, The Independent (2020)

The heavy handed-restrictions led to some complaints around police enforcement

Those hoping for a quick end to lockdown would be in for a shock when the President’s Chief Medical Adviser Jonathan Van-Tam said it was likely restrictions would last for the rest of the year. Van-Tam said it was "wholly unrealistic" to expect life would return to normal soon. He said "in the long run" the ideal way out would be via an "effective vaccine" or drugs to treat the disease. But he warned that the chance of having those within the next calendar year was "small". "This disease is not going to be eradicated, it is not going to disappear," he said, at the government's daily coronavirus briefing. "So we have to accept that we are working with a disease that we are going to be with globally... for the foreseeable future." Van-Tam said the public should not expect the number of coronavirus-related deaths to "fall away" after the peak. "In the long run, the exit from this is going to be one of two things," he said. "A vaccine - and there are a variety of ways they can be deployed, or highly effective drugs so that people stop dying of this disease even if they catch it."

“After months of dire news about the spread of the novel coronavirus and a mounting global death toll, a glimmer of hope arrived today. Researchers announced that dexamethasone, reduced deaths of COVID-19 patients in a major trial. Although full trial data have not yet been released, several outside commentators hailed the result as a “breakthrough.” “These are surprising, but very convincing results,” says Martin Landray, one of the principal investigators of the trial. If they hold up, adds Devi Sridhar, an expert on global public health at the University of Edinburgh, they could be a game-changer. The drugs are accessible even in lower-income countries. The Recovery trial included 3000 patients given a low dose of 6 milligrams of dexamethasone for 10 days. The steroid reduced deaths by one-third in patients on ventilators and by one-fifth for patients receiving supplemental oxygen. They did not find any benefit in patients not receiving respiratory support. Dexamethasone’s effect is much stronger than that of remdesivir, the only other drug claimed to help COVID-19 patients.” - A cheap steroid is the first drug shown to reduce death in COVID-19 patients, Kai Kupferschmidt, Science Magazine (2020)

Drugs like Dexamenthasone and Remdesivir would see increased attention

Parliament also reconvened for the first time in a month with Prime Minister's Questions returning for the Common's first day as a virtual Parliament. Prime Minister Emily Thornberry would be facing down opposition leader Rishi Sunak. Other MPs were expected to ask their questions via video link. It came after MPs approved a motion to allow for a new "online" Parliament amid the coronavirus outbreak. As a result, the number of MPs in the chamber was limited to 40 - sitting apart from each other in line with social distancing guidelines. Screens were installed in the chamber which will allow up to 130 MPs to take part in debates via the Zoom video-conferencing tool. Some MPs raised concerns about the new format, such as being able to get into the Chamber to ask questions on behalf of constituents. But Leader of the House, Luke Pollard, said: "We must not let the perfect be the enemy of the good."

Leader of the House Luke Pollard and Speaker Chris Bryant were charged with keeping Parliament afloat during the pandemic

With a vaccine a million miles away, all the British public had to look forward to was a never-ending lockdown and rising economic problems. With the employment rate toppling and companies going under despite the government’s efforts, resentment was increasingly building on the ground. Universal Basic Income had started flooding out to people’s bank accounts which the Government hoped would placate the population for now, but the situation in the Commonwealth was increasingly grim, it was now a race to make a vaccine, not just against the virus itself, but also the public’s patience. In labs across the Commonwealth and the rest of the world, the scientists were hard at work, the race was on.

“Of the dozens of places where a coronavirus vaccine might be born, one is DIOSynVax, a small company started by a pathologist named Jonathan Heeney. In ordinary times, I’d have visited Heeney in his office, in a stately red-brick building in Cambridge. I’d have met his team and his Aria III cytometer, which uses its four lasers to separate cells marked with fluorescent dyes. I’d have tried to wangle my way into the lab designated containment level 3, where Heeney’s biologists investigate pathogens such as the West Nile virus. These would be so lethal if they escaped that the lab is hermetic. The joints along the walls, floor and ceiling are sealed and re-sealed; the steel panels in the walls. According to government guidelines, have to be “of the type used in the nuclear industry”. A flow of air must be forced in if the door is open, to prevent the germs inside from drifting out. I would have even seen the coronavirus vaccine candidates themselves: samples of clear liquid, held in glass vials. But Heeney couldn’t take the risk. He didn’t want anyone carrying Covid-19 into his lab and infecting his staff.” - Inside the race to develop a coronavirus vaccine, Samanth Subramanian, Guardian Long Reads Podcast (2020)

Every day the vaccine took would lead to lost lives

“To what extent did the Government intervention help in creating a COVID-19 vaccine? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam

 

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Vaccine animal testing had finished, now it was time for human subjects

“The clinical studies are progressing very well. We are now initiating studies to test how well the vaccine induces immune responses. We are very grateful to the huge support of the trial volunteers in helping test whether this vaccine could protect against the pandemic. The COVID-19 vaccine trial team have been working hard on assessing the safety of the vaccine. We have had a lot of interest already from people eligible to take part in the phase I study, and we will now be able to continue the vaccine assessment. We will also be including more study sites, in different parts of the country. We are so proud to be collaborating with the University of Oxford to speed up the development of this vaccine. The speed at which this new vaccine has advanced is testament to Oxford’s ground-breaking scientific research. We will do everything in our power to engage with governments around the world to increase research speeds.” - Dominic Kelly, head of the Oxford Vaccine Group (2020)

British scientists like Kelly and Andrew Pollard helped lead the way in vaccine development

A light appeared at the end of the Covid tunnel as human trials of a COVID-19 vaccine began in Oxford. Three volunteers were injected, the first of more than 900 people recruited for the study. Half will receive the Covid-19 vaccine and half a control vaccine which protects against meningitis. The design of the trial meant volunteers would not know which vaccine they were getting, though doctors would. The vaccine was developed in under three months by a team at Oxford University. Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at the Jenner Institute, led the pre-clinical research. "I have a high degree of confidence in this vaccine," she said. "Of course, we have to test it and get data from humans. We have to prove it actually works and stops people getting infected with the coronavirus." The vaccine was made from a weakened version of a common cold virus (known as an adenovirus) from chimpanzees. The Oxford team had already developed a vaccine against Mers using the same approach - and that had promising results in clinical trials. Whilst the vaccine trials yielded promising results, the virus continued to burn through the country, especially hitting key workers.

Trade Unions like Unite and FBU spoke out against key worker deaths

A minute's silence was held across Britain to commemorate the key workers who died with coronavirus led by President Miliband. Around 80 NHS and care staff had died with the virus, as had many transport workers. At 11:00, people across the country paused to join the minute's silence. Mike Adams, head of the Commonwealth College of Nursing, said he was "heartened to hear how many people took part". Premiers up and down the country led tributes, including Philip Hammond in Brighton, Sadig Khan in London, Andy Burnham in Manchester and Stephen Barclay in Anglia. 72 NHS staff and 6 care workers were confirmed to have died in hospitals in Britain. The rise was partly driven by an increasing number of deaths in care homes, which accounted for a third of all deaths. Deaths in care homes were continuing to rise, compared with the number of deaths in hospitals which appeared to have peaked and was coming down.

“Over 3,000 people have died from covid-19 in care homes in a fortnight, prompting calls to stop treating people in care homes as “second class citizens.” At the start of April, the figures showed 80 deaths among care home residents that were notified to the CQC. Over the next two weeks, the number of deaths increased to 3,232, a rapid escalation in mortality. The government has announced that it will publish deaths occurring in care homes alongside those in hospitals. The figures include data from the Office for National Statistics and the CQC, the health regulator, for the first time. Care homes must notify the CQC of any deaths among residents within two days, and it must be informed of whether covid-19 was suspected or confirmed. The ONS’ data show that deaths from all causes in care homes rose by 40% in a week, from 4927 in the week ending 10 April to 7316 in the week ending 17 April. The Health Foundation think tank, said, “Today’s data highlights the extent of the challenge for the social care sector in caring for the elderly.” - Care home deaths in England and Wales rise sharply, Adrian O’Dowd, British Medical Journal (2020)

The main battleground of the pandemic had moved from the hospital to the care home

In an attempt to combat the outbreak, the Government launched a nationwide track and trace app. Two million people downloaded the government's contact-tracing app within its first day of release. NHS Covid-19 instructs users to self-isolate for 14 days if it detects they were nearby someone who has the virus. It also had a check-in scanner to alert owners if a venue they have visited is found to be an outbreak hotspot. Anyone aged 16 and over was ordered to install it. Health Secretary Barry Gardiner said the app "helps us to find more people who are at risk of having the virus. Everybody who downloads the app will be helping to protect themselves and helping to protect their loved ones. The more people who download it, the more effective it will be," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. There was some confusion about whether users could ignore a notification telling them to stay at home. Gardiner told BBC Breakfast: "users must obey the command and would, in theory, be liable for fines of £2,000 or more if they did not. But Gardiner did acknowledge the Government had no way to check.

“The NHS has today unveiled a package of measures in the battle against coronavirus fake news – working with Google, Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. The measures include Google providing easy access to verified NHS guidance. As well as helping to promote good advice, the NHS has been fighting bad advice and misinformation about the virus in the media and online. The NHS worked with Twitter to suspend a false account posing as a hospital and putting out inaccurate information. The NHS is also working with Twitter, Instagram and Facebook to verify or ‘blue tick’ over 900 accounts belonging to NHS organisations. And following months of work, the NHS and Google will this week introduce new Knowledge Panels as part of Google search on mobile. This will provide the public with easy access to NHS information about more than 300 health conditions. Both Twitter and Facebook are directing users to the NHS website if they search for coronavirus. The announcement comes alongside the government’s action to crack down on fake news.” - NHS takes action against coronavirus fake news online, Federal NHS Press Release (2020)

Fake news and scams were becoming a major problem

The app couldn’t come at a better time, Britain was tied with France for the third highest number of Covid deaths in Europe, with countries’ death tolls sitting around 25,000. Fatalities across Britain reached 25,427, exceeding the 25,168 recorded in France – making Britain Europe’s third worst-hit country. The true figure was likely to be higher due to missed cases and a lag in reporting. Dr Alexandra Freeman, chair of the Centre for Risk Communication at Cambridge University said: “We are not doing very well and it’s been another very bad week. I don’t like this league table of who’s top and who’s not, but there’s no denying that these are serious numbers.” John Schofield, president of the HCSA, said ministers had “questions” to answer handling of the crisis, and called for a public inquiry. “This is a very sobering and unwelcome milestone. It’s of extreme concern that the Commonwealth now has the third-largest number of Covid deaths in Europe,” he said. “There will have to be a full investigation of the Covid response in due course to understand why we are experiencing such large numbers. It puts into question whether the government’s preparation at the start of the pandemic.

Whilst Britain was a fairly large international country, other largest countries had managed to avoid such major outbreaks, Germany sat at around 6,000 deaths, a quarter of Britain's total and even considerably poorer countries like Turkey, Ukraine and Poland had considerably lower cases. Whilst locking down quickly and harshly had probably prevented Britain from overtaking Italy or facing the disastrous death toll the United States faced, for the average member of the public they saw businesses collapsing, unemployment rising, and Britain still one of the most Covid-wracked states in the Western World. As the Commonwealth entered purdah and election season 2020, death was the world in everyone’s head.

“In March, President Miliband's chief scientific adviser said keeping deaths below 10,000 would be a “good outcome”. In April, Reuters reported that the government’s worst-case scenario was a death toll of 60,000. Britain still ranks among the countries worst affected by the pandemic, a list that includes Belgium, Spain and Italy. In Italy, the worst-hit country in Europe and whose population is about 85% of Britain’s, the death toll stood at 31,739 based on confirmed cases. Comparable British data showed around 25,000 deaths. Britain’s performance in part reflects the fact that it has been quicker to publish data on COVID-19 deaths than other European countries. Ministers say excess mortality - the number of deaths from all causes that exceed the average - is more meaningful because it is comparable. Early evidence, though, suggests Britain is faring badly on that front too. So far this year, there have been 40,000 excess deaths compared to a five-year average, the ONS said.” - Sick Man of Europe?, Andy Bruce, Reuters (2020)

The fate of Miliband's administration was now in the hands of the electorate

““The Miliband/Thornberry Government did all it could to prevent excess deaths.” How far do you agree? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam