Consider a scenario where a general war broke out between NATO + allies and the Warsaw Pact + allies in what could be described as the 'peak' of the Cold War - the period between the Russian invasion of Afghanistan and the Chernobyl disaster (1979-1986). In this period, both alliances were at the peak of their powers, with equipment like the M1 Abrams, Panavia Tornado and Nimitz-class carriers being introduced on one side, with the other side wielding new T-80s, MiG-29s and Kirov-class Battlecruisers.
The conflict was brutal, primarily taking place in Central Europe, but with other theatres including the Atlantic, Scandinavian Arctic, Southern Europe, the Middle East and Korea. Faced with a massive Soviet second echelon breakthrough after a few days of conflict, the US and West Germany resorted to deploying tactical nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union responded in kind, and so did the British. In a few days, millions of soldiers and civilians in Germany were killed. Major German cities like Frankfurt, Bonn, Berlin and Leipzig were damaged or destroyed. The nuclear exchange escalated slightly with Warsaw, Prague, Brussels and Mons all being targeted. Then, world leaders came to their senses.
A peace deal was hastily constructed in Amman, which called for a return to pre-war conditions.
The effects of nuclear fallout of these low yield weapons (Pershing IIs had a maximum yield of 80kt, Scuds had a yield of about 50kt, British WE.177 bombs had a yield of 200kt. For comparison Fat Man had a yield of 20kt) is as follows:
To summarise - West Germany, East Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are non-viable as independent states. France, Italy, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Yugoslavia, Sweden, Norway and San Marino are partially irradiated but can survive. Britain and Hungary also suffer some effects.
I think a tactical exchange nuclear war scenario is an interesting but unexplored divergence. Radiation isn't my area of expertise so I may have got some of the fallout wrong. What could some of the aftermath of this be?
The conflict was brutal, primarily taking place in Central Europe, but with other theatres including the Atlantic, Scandinavian Arctic, Southern Europe, the Middle East and Korea. Faced with a massive Soviet second echelon breakthrough after a few days of conflict, the US and West Germany resorted to deploying tactical nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union responded in kind, and so did the British. In a few days, millions of soldiers and civilians in Germany were killed. Major German cities like Frankfurt, Bonn, Berlin and Leipzig were damaged or destroyed. The nuclear exchange escalated slightly with Warsaw, Prague, Brussels and Mons all being targeted. Then, world leaders came to their senses.
A peace deal was hastily constructed in Amman, which called for a return to pre-war conditions.
The effects of nuclear fallout of these low yield weapons (Pershing IIs had a maximum yield of 80kt, Scuds had a yield of about 50kt, British WE.177 bombs had a yield of 200kt. For comparison Fat Man had a yield of 20kt) is as follows:
- To make the effects fair the wind didn't blow the fallout any particular destination.
- The worst hit were the areas of Germany that were not nuked (primarily Baden-Wurtemburg and southern Bavaria)
- There were lots of detonations in northern Germany so Denmark is nearly uninhabitable. Significant portions of their population were evacuated to Sweden, Iceland, Greenland and the Faroes.
- The Netherlands, Luxembourg and Belgium suffered a large brunt of the fallout. The Rhine was contaminated, spreading radiation deep within Dutch soil. Large waves of refugees attempt to move south into France and across the channel.
- Eastern France is badly hit but the interior and western parts are perfectly habitable. France is one of two European countries (the other being the USSR) that can still field any force worth something. The French nuclear deterrent is intact and unused.
- The extreme eastern portions of Essex and Kent were hit but the rest of Britain is fine. The main issues are the loss of the BAOR and large portions of the RAF and refugees from the low countries and Scandinavia. Britain used tactical weapons, but Polaris is intact.
- Spain, Portugal, Iceland and Ireland suffered minimal effects.
- Austria, Switzerland and Liechtenstein were hit hard by fallout, causing significant amounts of people to flee south.
- This fallout spread into northern Italy and Yugoslavia, making millions internally displaced.
- Czechia was hit hard, but Slovakia was not so bad so millions moved east.
- Minor effects in Hungary.
- The western edge of Poland and the Warsaw region are irradiated, but it can continue to function as a sovereign state.
- Scania is hit badly, as is southern Norway. The capital may have to move from Oslo to Bergen.
To summarise - West Germany, East Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are non-viable as independent states. France, Italy, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Yugoslavia, Sweden, Norway and San Marino are partially irradiated but can survive. Britain and Hungary also suffer some effects.
I think a tactical exchange nuclear war scenario is an interesting but unexplored divergence. Radiation isn't my area of expertise so I may have got some of the fallout wrong. What could some of the aftermath of this be?
