Teddy Roosevelt runs, and wins 1908 election: What next?

Historyman 14

Historyman 14

The basic setup is Teddy goes for it, and runs for a third term in the White House. He wins. So what now? His foreign and domestic policy? The Agadir Crisis? (If not butterfly away.) Does Teddy runs for a fourth term? If not, who wins in 1912? Charles Hughes? Elihu Root? Albert Beveridge? Philander Knox?
 
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Virginia Liberal

Virginia Liberal

Honestly he would not be breaking the two term tradition in 1908 has he had only been elected on his own once in 1904. He was elected vice president in 1900. So the two term tradition wouldn't be broke unless he ran in 1912. In 08 Teddy wins easily. The more interesting question is what does 1912 look like
 
Historyman 14

Historyman 14

Confederate Liberal said:
Honestly he would not be breaking the two term tradition in 1908 has he had only been elected on his own once in 1904. He was elected vice president in 1900. So the two term tradition wouldn't be broke unless he ran in 1912. In 08 Teddy wins easily. The more interesting question is what does 1912 look like
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I knew that, but I forgot to put it in. How do you think the next 4 yours would look for him?
 

Scerus

I suspect he will not run in 1912, meaning that the 1912 election will give Taft at least a chance to beat Wilson.
 
Virginia Liberal

Virginia Liberal

1908-1912
I would speculate that TR would double down on the national parks they were his baby after all, I can see the TR administration continuing to regulate big business and the Navy would see increased expansion the South Carolinas would be larger a true rival to Dreadnought. You could possibly see some of his progress platform of his otl 1912 Bull Moose party enacted.
 
Virginia Liberal

Virginia Liberal

Taft will be come a supreme Court judge if a slot opens up (I'm not sure if one does otl). And in 1912 the party bosses buck him and run one of their own against wilson

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I'm a TR buff and I'm torn as to if he would make a third term bid in the 12 situation I listed. Not that I don't see the Republican bosses doing exactly that I mean they made him v.p. to shut him up effectively and now have had him as president for just under 12 years. I just can't see TR standing by and letting it happen. Even in otl he pushed for Taft someone he saw as like minded.
 
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KiwiEater

KiwiEater

More progressive reforms happen and faster during Roosevelt's elongated presidency. Taft is nominated for Chief Justice in 1910. Even though Fairbanks is Roosevelt's VP, he was more conservative, so Roosevelt would more likely support Hughes, a like minded progressive New Yorker, rather than Fairbanks. Even if Wilson gets nominated, which he almost wasn't, Hughes would most likely be able to easily win. As for World War I, Hughes was an admirer of Great Britain, so it's possible he could want to intervene earlier, but it's still more likely he'd remain neutral.
 
StephenColbert27

StephenColbert27

Banned
The U.S. Army is brought up to speed much sooner and is in much better shape when the U.S. joins World War I, while the navy is also slightly expanded. TR was a great proponent of what he called "Preparedness" while he was out of office, and was extremely critical of Wilson's neglect of the military in the lead up to joining the war.
 

1940LaSalle

I don't know that Taft would necessarily have been appointed Chief Justice right off the bat, but appointment to the court itself is a near-certainty, since IOTL, Taft appointed no fewer than six justices. (It's hard to imagine that TR instead of Taft in the White House from 1909 to 1913 would butterfly away all six opportunities.) The Chief Justiceship could easily come later.

That said, I suggest that since both men were professionals, TR and Hughes could have agreed to set aside any personal differences and work together toward implementing a common GOP Progressive agenda. Assuming that to be true, something like a Hughes-(former MO governor Herbert) Hadley ticket might work well in 1912. Wilson will likely run; I don't see the continued TR presidency altering that. Could Wilson have been denied the nomination? Of course, given that it took 46 ballots to get the nomination in the first place. However, I don't have offhand a trigger that would alter that course of events.

A mostly-two-way election between Hughes and Wilson in 1912 would, I think, result in a modest Hughes victory. TR might well have been the first sitting president to stump for his successor, which would help put Hughes over the top. While this wouldn't mean utopia, it would mean that:
  • the racial policies of the Wilson years are never enacted. That should move race relations in the US ahead by perhaps five years or so.
  • there would be a president who likely wouldn't hesitate to speak ill of the renascent KKK in about 1915 or 1916, given that Hughes was a northerner. While those words might not have much effect in the south, they could impede growth in the north significantly in years to come.
  • TR's preparedness policies would probably go forward with Hughes, putting the US in better shape militarily in the second decade of the 20th century. That in turn is likely to mean the rebels in Mexico would have second thoughts or more about coming onto US soil, and that there might not have been a crisis with Mexico around 1916.
  • With the GOP in the White House, perhaps TR's services could be offered as a mediator after Sarajevo: he was an admired known quantity, unlike Wilson IOTL. It's not out of the question that war in 1914 could have been postponed for some time given such mediation.
Long story short: it looks to me like the positives outweigh the negatives in this situation. Not sure who would get the GOP nomination in 1920 but it's highly unlikely to be Harding. The Dems' nominations in 1916 and 1920 are murkier still.
 

Deleted member 2186

Well we might see this, if he manged to get another term in 1912.

a-teddyandtanks.jpg
 
Wallet

Wallet

Banned
TR loved international diplomacy though. He helped end the Russian-Japanese war. He would love the chance to work with the Europeans to end their disputes. I doubt he can prevent World War I but this is an interesting butterfly
 
The Lethargic Lett

The Lethargic Lett

Roosevelt preferred Elihu Root, his Secretary of State, than Taft as his successor (Taft was his second choice) but Root was sick at the time, and wasn't expected to live much longer (ironically, he would live until 1937). So if Roosevelt runs in 1908, then by 1912 Root would be back in good health, with the election probably ending up as Elihu Root vs. Champ Clark vs. Eugene Debs with Root as the winner. Having a more Progressive Republican like Root as POTUS might prevent the Republican split, or it may just delay it. Perhaps a prominent conservative or moderate Republican (Charles Evan Hughes or maybe Philander C. Knox?) causes the split instead of Theodore Roosevelt and the Progressives bolting?

All in all, Roosevelt running in 1908 would definitely delay a Republican split, and it would likely lead to a Republican win in 1912 (and 1916 if the First World War still happens), though the factional split in the Republican was pretty inevitable by 1908.

"Vote James M. Cox for a Return to Normalcy!"
 

Wildcard F. Kennedy

Interesting. If he runs and wins in 'o8 but declines another run in '12, then perhaps we wouldn't get a greater push for term limits. Especially if Teddy presents it as he's running for his own second term and he's not breaking the two term tradition, since he wasn't elected president in 1900.

The interesting butterfly is what happens if FDR gets elected on schedule and goes for the third term? I'm sure there'd be some backlash about how the Roosevelts' are always trying to remain in power longer than is expected. Especially if no one else tries for a third in between.
 

Deleted member 2186

Wallet said:
TR loved international diplomacy though. He helped end the Russian-Japanese war. He would love the chance to work with the Europeans to end their disputes. I doubt he can prevent World War I but this is an interesting butterfly
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Can see a bigger United States Navy under his presidency, knowing him he will be itching to have his Atlantic Fleet face off with the German High Seas Fleet.
 

David T

The most plausible POD for this is that TR does not make his famous OTL Election Night statement of 1904. ("On the 4th of March next I shall have served three and a half years and this three and a half years constitutes my first term. The wise custom which limits the President to two terms regards the substance and not the form, and under no circumstances will I be a candidate for or accept another nomination.") Then in 1908 he says he is running for his "second elective term" but rules out future terms. My guess is that, as in 1901-8 he manages to paper over the differences between progressive and conservative Republicans. The GOP will suffer some losses in 1910--after that many years in power, a there is bound to be some wear and tear--but nothing like the 1910 of OTL, where Democrats actually won control of the House. The GOP is not guaranteed victory in 1912, but at least will be fairly united and in better shape than in OTL. The question is who the GOP nominates in 1912. Taft would be an obvious answer, except that it is very likely he would want to be appointed Chief Justice after Fuller died in 1910. TR would probably like Root, but would realize that his image as a conservative "Wall Street lawyer" would hurt the GOP in the Midwest and West. Hughes may be the best choice in terms of electability, but TR never seemed to care much for him. The GOP convention, in its heart, would probably prefer a conservative like Fairbanks, but that would IMO give the Democrats a real chance even against a united Republican Party...Maybe, seeing this, TR decides after all to accept a "genuine draft" by the party?
 
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