Stupid Luck and Happenstance, Thread II

The OTL Chinese intervention did not end in their complete and utter victory, but a stalemate in which both sides judged the cost of attacking was too high to be worth it. I don't see why this one should differ, just with the stalemate happenening while still near the Korean border.

The US in the OTL Korean War was forced to hastily withdraw back to the 38th parallel because the Chinese intervention had suprised them utterly unprepared. Ironically part of that unpreparedness had to do with the bitterly cold Korean winter conditions. Not the first time that happened to someone when fighting communists, I'm told. Ahem, coming back to the point: the OTL Chinese advance into Korea was not based on some memetical 'you'll run out of bullets before we'll run out of conscripts' scheme. Such tactics have no place on a modern battlefield.

Notably, in this timeline the Koreans are the opposite of surprised. They had more than a year to prepare for a confrontation they perfectly well knew was coming. Presumably Korea and its allies will have air superiority. The Chinese are pushing their armies into a heavily fortified meat grinder.
 
The Chinese Russian border is interesting for its size and composition. You have some areas that are wide open because of the way the terrain is and other areas that are easy to block.
The Russian have the ability to attack where they want and when they want. The Chinese can defend the more easily defendable portions but other ones its a case of how big of a speed bump can we build. The Amur river is a good barrier but the Russian can push some bridges over where they want to and the KMT can't control the whole length of that border. Out in Western China, the Sinkiang region, its wide open steppe for large areas and it becomes a logistical problem with the open spaces. Russia has special engineer units to help them out with RR civil engineering units to build track and bridges as needed and other supporting units. Not to mention the German units to help with that.

With the attack in Korea we still have not heard from the Fallschirmjager units, both classic airborne and heliborne units. The tac air units of the Luftwaffe and allies, yes I include the naval air service in allies, and the heavy bomber units. Special forces of course have not been heard from. Also I cannot imagine the German Pioneer corps not doing a lot of digging behind the lines preparing the lines for Tilo's folk to have a place to hold.
 
I think you underestimate just how many men China has. Even at a 10:1 casualty ratio (and bear in mind that IOTL WWII the best they managed in combat was roughly 6:1 against the Soviets.) Germany just can't politically sustain that.

Even 500,000 dead is going to be a tough sell, for which you've only killed 5 million Chinese soldiers, or less than 0.0075% percent of the Chinese population.
Germany won't be the one doing the heavy lifting, the Koreans are. They won't have 500.000 men in the theatre to begin with. At best, they'll have around 100.000. Their main contribution would be the Fleet, the Luftwaffe, special units, specialized units (like the Marines and Fallschrimjagers) and elite panzer and panzergrenadiers deployed. Most of the fighting and the dying would be done by the Koreans.
 
Germany won't be the one doing the heavy lifting, the Koreans are. They won't have 500.000 men in the theatre to begin with. At best, they'll have around 100.000. Their main contribution would be the Fleet, the Luftwaffe, special units, specialized units (like the Marines and Fallschrimjagers) and elite panzer and panzergrenadiers deployed. Most of the fighting and the dying would be done by the Koreans.
Be that as may, I would imagine that the German public is going to grow tired of being the world policeman. Replete with all the hatred and disrespect that entails.
 
Be that as may, I would imagine that the German public is going to grow tired of being the world policeman. Replete with all the hatred and disrespect that entails.
Quite the opposite, nearly all the world except the US sphere of influence, likes the Germans being there. Look at Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Russia, UK, France, Argentina. They understand the Hearts and Minds and how it works.
 
Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Russia, UK, France, Argentina.
The UK and France saw Germany as the lesser of about about a handful of evils, perfectly glad to have them go after the Soviets and other immediate threats, but they still have resentment over the Great War being a meaningless slaughter in their eyes and German dominance. Opinion is changing but you have some of the old crowd wanting to get back at old Fritz.

And we have to keep in mind that the opinion of country's (government/ones in charge) isn't always that of the people. God knows how Mexico had to deal with insurgency and regionalism for about... forever.
 
We do not know what the final objectives of Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT are, my thinking is that it is not total conquest of the Korean Peninsula but for Korea to acknowledge Chinese dominance in the region and that means kicking the Germans out, making China the chief trading partner of Korea, and an extremely favorable border readjustment.
From there Chiang Kai-shek will use the same tactics against the British in Hong Kong, against the Vietnamese and Laotian nations.
This why it is very important to stop the Chinese right now because if they are successful then that just means more wars down the line.
For the United States their best bet is to find some one else to take charge of China and get out of Korea as quick as possible.

Also right now China is systematically being cut of from receiving any imports as the Eurasian rail network is cut off from them, Burma and Thailand as allies of Great Britain is joining in the quarantine of China, once again I think that there is no naval blockade of China but a quarantine where only things like food, medicine and other humanitarian assistance are getting thru.
With the Marine Insurance industry being dominated by the British and Germans no shipping company is willing to challenge any naval action being proposed and the Americans do not want in anyway to expand the current conflict by confronting the fleet off of the Chinese coast.
 
So at the moment, we have 1 German Division engaged in combat and we have a very heavy German Corps entering the theatre of operations.

I doubt the Chinese have anything capable of quickly stopping the German Panzer Corps if it attacks at a time and place of its choosing.

The Russians are probably on full alert along their border with China which means that China has to watch them, after all they’ve thrown their lot in with the Germans, they have just let German combat units pass through their territory. Hardly the actions of a neutral power.

Do we have heavy units of the British and French Armies transiting Russia as well?
 
Personaly I wonder under how much strain the chinese logistics supporting this attack are.
Because the koreans rule the local seas, which in turn means that everything has to be sent overland. Over the Yalu River. Which the Koreans tried to destroy all existing bridges over (at least severly damageing them). This means if the Germans can destroy the temporary bridges the chinese have put up, and keep them form rebuilding them (with the Germans airsupiority this should not be impossible), the chinese army can literaly be starved to death (either Food or ammo).
 
Doubtful on the British. They seem to be trying to play the Great Game again. A disturbing thought. I don't know if the French have any interests left in the area.
Even when The British were playing the Great Game, they still co-operated with their rivals, especially in China.

Their enclaves/concessions in Shanghai and the other Treaty Ports, not to mention Hong Kong, will be at risk from Chinese resentment & militarism ITTL. This also applies to the French & other European enclaves & Treaty Ports. And Germany still controls Tsingtao (Qingdao) and rest of the Kiautschou (Jiaozhou) Bay Leased Territory. There is no way China won't move against the Germans there, especially given its proximity to the Korean Empire, Chinese supply routes to the front AND to Peking (Beijing) if the KMT has relocated the capital to there (I can't recall if they've done that). If they do, the others will know that a move against their enclaves is coming.

This could (will?) also spill over onto American concessions if anti-foreigner rhetoric & propaganda gets out of hand.

For a OTL equivalent, see the Indian reclamation/reconquest of French & Portuguese India post independence.
 
I think you underestimate just how many men China has. Even at a 10:1 casualty ratio (and bear in mind that IOTL WWII the best they managed in combat was roughly 6:1 against the Soviets.) Germany just can't politically sustain that.
Even 500,000 dead is going to be a tough sell, for which you've only killed 5 million Chinese soldiers, or less than 0.0075% percent of the Chinese population.
OTL, the Communist People's Volunteer Army - the force used to intervene in the Korean war had a strength of 780,000. From that, a little over half, (around 390,000), became casualties - 132,000 dead, the remainder injured, POW/Missing, or struck with illness.

From what I can see, the Chinese Nationalist Army had a strength of around 4 million, losing half a million men could be enough to force Chiang to the negotiating table, more than that is likely to see Chiang having a lead heart attack.
 
And Germany still controls Tsingtao (Qingdao) and rest of the Kiautschou (Jiaozhou) Bay Leased Territory.
In the first timeline Germany gave Tsingtao up to make a deal for China to step up their attacks against the Japanese and because the Chinese were upset at the Germans for crossing in to China from Vietnam without permission, also it was because it was too hard to defend in the future and they got a better deal with Korea with Pusan.
 
In the first timeline Germany gave Tsingtao up to make a deal for China to step up their attacks against the Japanese and because the Chinese were upset at the Germans for crossing in to China from Vietnam without permission, also it was because it was too hard to defend in the future and they got a better deal with Korea with Pusan.
More exactly they gave up Tsingtao, in the grounds that it was pointless to further keep the territorial concession, as they had also gained a far better base for the Asia/Oceania KLM Fleet in the form of Taiwan, what had declared their independence as a sovereign Republic, being recognized by the Germans in exchange for basing Rights, and to protect the population of the island, mainly Hakka Chinese and descendants of Japanese Colonists, what would have been obviously treated beyond badly by the KMT in the aftermath of WWII here hadn't Lang done this.....

Now in this case... Things in Taiwán right now must be quite tense, odds are that the Fighter Squadrons based on Taiwán must be having regular skirmishes with the Republican Chinese Air Forces while the whole island it's armed to the teeth awaiting a possible attempt to invade from the Chinese....
 
While the French and the British have no great love for the Germans, they aren't enemies anymore at least, and they were on the same side in the last few wars. Conversely, the USA managed not to improve relations that much with either of them in the last 40 something years. Russia (or it's leadership, anyway) is more or less either pro-German or not looking forward for Round Three.
And Harriman's speech just made sure that an irritated neutrality is best the USA would get in the near future.
 
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Now in this case... Things in Taiwán right now must be quite tense, odds are that the Fighter Squadrons based on Taiwán must be having regular skirmishes with the Republican Chinese Air Forces while the whole island it's armed to the teeth awaiting a possible attempt to invade from the Chinese
I doubt that Taiwan is concerned about any potential invasion from China but you may just hit on something, while the United States is not directly involved with any combat operations they did sell a bunch of weapons systems to China and now they are gathering information on how they are stacking up to the Germans.
 
In the first timeline Germany gave Tsingtao up to make a deal for China to step up their attacks against the Japanese and because the Chinese were upset at the Germans for crossing in to China from Vietnam without permission, also it was because it was too hard to defend in the future and they got a better deal with Korea with Pusan.
I knew there was something I was forgetting about that...
 
That was before the US Presidents speech.
The US President speech eventhough pointed primarily toward german hegemony in international stage also touched nerves toward other constitutional monarchy governments, especially British with still large area of semi colonies(dominions). With their business cabals actions since decades ago, wonder how long until United States oficially become international Pariah.
 
Helping stage and sponsor a coup in Korea to a pro-Chinese government (or even an outright government decapitation) could be a nasty play.

Helping stage and prop a similar coup among the small minority on Taiwan that would want Chinese governance (I’m sure there were a few) could also be material for the Chinese.
 
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