Slow Drift to War Europe 1984

Stonpile- I will consider your request but, I am not exactly sure how to pull off that kind of strike. The leadership on both sides seemed to be committed to the Mad Doctrine. But i will considered the idea.

Indeed - Once one missile is detonated i simply cant see anyone not firing back - I cannot imagine the UK designated survivour sat in Corsham or A N OTHER secret location ( assuming the PM went down with the ship in London) deciding NOT to retaliate. I hope I would be big enough to stand back and say no but i doubt it after millions of people (both known and unknown to me) had been killed and the capital and main financial centre of the nation destroyed utterly. Personally I think i would fire everything I had at Russia. twice. I might shoot myself afterwards mind.


As always Yes Prime Mister illustrates the truth of the matter!

Sir Humphrey: With Trident we could obliterate the whole of Eastern Europe!
Hacker: I don’t want to obliterate the whole of Eastern Europe!
Sir Humphrey: It’s a deterrent.
Hacker: It’s a bluff. I probably wouldn’t use it.
Sir Humphrey: Yes, but they don’t know that you probably wouldn’t.
Hacker: They probably do.
Sir Humphrey: Yes, they probably know that you probably wouldn’t. But they can’t certainly know.
Hacker: They probably certainly know that I probably wouldn’t.
Sir Humphrey: Yes, but even though they probably certainly know that you probably wouldn’t, they don’t certainly know that, although you probably wouldn’t, there is no probability that you certainly would!

or

Sir Humphrey: [About Trident] It is the nuclear missile Harrods would sell you! What more can I say?
Hacker: Only that it costs 15 billion pounds and we don't need it.
Sir Humphrey: [begrudgingly] Well you could say that about anything at Harrods.
 
Stonepile- Emotions will be at an all time high, while it is conceivable that the Soviet Union could offer assurances on the use of nuclear weapons. As time goes on and the situation gets desperate. People make stupid decisions. Also there are other factors that i will not go into here because they are part of the story line that will have an effect on decision making. One possible approach would be to launch a limited number of missiles at certain targets in the hope of making the other side back down that could have the effect of a series of small strikes going back and forth, gradually crippling both sides. But you would have on both side leaders with an unbelievable amount of restraint. Since it would be all to easy for one side or the other simply going ape shit after the latest round of nuclear strikes and launching everything.
 
I’d love to see Reagan in an answering statement bluntly state that America will spend Trillions supporting her Military and NATO, but the Soviets won’t get a cent.
 
DarkObelisk- The day is young and a lot of things happen today, so it may take a few posts to get to Reagan's reaction.
 
"millions for defense but not one cent for tribute"

There are several problems with a "limited" nuclear use as a threat. Doing so assumes the other side has lost its will, and given that the side that fires the first nuke is likely to be the one that is suing this because conventional methods are not working, that is a very shaky assumption. Another is that once the fighting starts nuclear forces are going to truly be on a hair trigger, with significant pucker factor - not the best environment for calm deliberate response. Yet another is that once even one missile (or nuclear capable aircraft) has delivered a nuke the receiving side has to assume the next missile or nuclear capable aircraft is similarly armed, again potentially leading to "over-responding".

If the Soviets drop even one nuke on a nuclear power (France, UK, USA) game over. If they use a tacnuke in Germany, given the geography of Germany you are likely to cause major issues to a large population center, also not good. It was felt that use of nukes at sea against naval targets or ships using nuclear armed SAMs against air attack could potentially avoid the upward spiral of nukes - however this was by no means universally accepted, more or less that use solely at sea was less dangerous than on land (not "safe" however).
 
Putting a brake on the use of nuclear weapons, during a crisis is not going to be easy and it would be all to easy for the things to go into a hell in a handbasket during a war.
 
The main effort for the forces in Czechoslovakia will be the attack on the Bavaria. The forces defending the German side of the borders are a mixture of Bundeswehr, Territorial Army, Bavarian Border Guards and at least one division of American troops the 47th Infantry division and the 278th Armored Calvary Regiment and four brigades of Canadian troops. The 1st Gebirgsdivision with the 56th Local Defense Brigade will cover the border from the Austrian border to Bayerisch Eisentstein. I would point out that brigade is one of only two local defense brigades equipped with Leopard I’s and it has additional equipment above and beyond it normal TO&E.
10th Panzer Division will cover the border north of Bayerisch Eisenstein to Schonsee Bavaria. This includes one of the areas of the border where tanks can be used more effectively.

The 47th Infantry Division is covering the border from Schonsee and ending approximately 5 kilometers to the north of Tirschenrueth. From Tirschenrueth to the inner border the Canadian 4th, 1st 2nd brigades hold that section of the line with the 3rd Canadian Brigade with the 278th ACR, will be the reserve units backing up the Canadian Brigades and the 47th Infantry. The Bundeswehr’s II Corp has the 4th Panzer Division and the 26th Fallschirmjaeger Brigade in reserve. While the 66 HSB and three Home defense regiments the 76th, 86th and 96th will continue to carry out rear area security in Bavaria.

There will be one attack into Austria by our forces near the confluence of the Czech, Bavarian and Austrian borders meet. The 28th Corp with the 31st Tank and the 30TH Guard MRD will carry out a flanking attack. Basically the 28th Corp will cross the Austrian border and go around the southern flank of 56th Self Defense Brigade. We will take advantage of the failure of the Bundeswehr and the Italian Army to work together. For now, the 28th Corp is located about a hundred kilometers away the plan is to send the Corp south at the last minute to achieve tactical surprise.

Now we will go from south to north on the border the three mobilization only division the 16th ,18th, and the 26th MRD’s will protect and engage in limited offensive operations designed to tie up the force in that area. But the primary attack in this section of the line will be from Zelezna Ruda down following this highway two lane highway from the border of Czechoslovakia to the to Deggendorf. That drive will have 3rd MRD as well as the 1st Tank division. These two divisions will attack along a five kilometer front to attempt to drive a hole in the line. This attack will be against the 1st Gebirgsdivision. This section of the line will be under the command of the Czech 5th Army.

The 1st Czech Army will command this effort. The drive in this part of the line will be from Folmava Czechslovakia with the drive has one of two possible targets. One could head west to Regensburg but it does mean spending more time in the mountains or the drive could turn south near Cham and head for the city of Straubing. The direction of the offensive will be decided as to which goal seems more achievable. This force will include the 2nd MRD as well as the 4th, 9th and 13th Czech army tank divisions these units will go against the 10th Panzer Division.


The drive that makes it to the Danube first will have the 1st Combined Arms Army with the remaining three divisions the 15th Guard Tank division, the 18th Guard MRD and the 48th MRD. Will attack along that line of advance to force a crossing over the Danube. Then the Army will drive on Munich and when the 8th Tank Army has seized Salzburg. That Army will move north to link up with the 1st Combined Arms Army and then drive on to the Rhine. Just how many divisions will be able to move north will of course be affected by what is happening in the rest of the Balkans. The remainder of the Czech Bavarian border is covered by the 15th, 19th and 20th MRD with the 14th Tank Division. They will protect the border to the north and keep the American and Canadian troops along that part of the line busy while the main offensive happens.

I will mention that my command is shifting a pair of mobilization only divisions the 385th and the 386th from the Soviet Army along with the 14th tank division and possible troops from the 20th MRD of the Czech Army. All these units are to be part of a drive in the area near Cheb. The Cheb approach is the gateway to invading Bohemia so we have decided to carry out an attack in that section of the frontline to keep NATO forces off balance and unable to take advantage of the terrain. The two divisions have been attached to the 3rd Czech Army for this drive.

The next section of the border runs from the Czech border along the German Inner Border to just south of the village of Bichofsheim an der Rhon. Primarily it will be the responsibility of the American Army. The American Armies 7th Corp will be responsible for this section of the front. They have the 1st Armored division, 1st Infantry division and the 3rd Infantry Division and recently the 40th Infantry division as well as the 2nd ACR. The 50th Armored division a national Guard division is the reserve for the 7th Corp. Also, as usual, there will be elements of the Federal Border Police and the Territorial Army operating along that section of the border.

The 1st Armored Division is on the right end of the line from village of Rehau to the town of Hof and then onto the village of Naila and finally several kilometers on into the forest the length of the line covered is approximately 35 to 40 kilometers in length. Next is the 40th Mechanized ID it’s line from the end of the 1st Armored line just west of Naila and go roughly sixty kilometers but a large section of the line is in terrain to rugged to operate armored or mechanized units and parts of the line could be covered by Territorial Army units of Border Guard units. The end of the line is in the vicinity of the village of Witzmannsberg

1st Infantry division starts just east of the village of Witzmannsberg to the village of Altenstein and then on to the Ditterswind and then on to Schweinshaupten. That divisions line goes on to the west and then turns northwest for another ten or so kilometers along the north edge of a forested area. This section of the covering a section of the border that is a mixture of farmland and rugged forested area. This section of the line runs about forty kilometers.

The final section of the line was about thirty kilometers and is covered by the 3rd Infantry division. This part of the line is where the Hof gap is located. This is where a major diversionary attack will be carried out.

The 3rd Infantry division will be hit with a major diversionary operation while the rest of the VII Corp will be kept busy with a series of attacks to keep those divisions busy while the main efforts are made elsewhere. The attack against the Hof gap will be carried out by the 11th Guard Combined Arms Army with the 40th Guard Tank Division and the 26th MRD both armed with T-72’s with two additional divisions the 34th MRD and the 44th Tank Division both armed with T-54/5’s. The 3rd division is armed with M-1 tanks but we fill this number of divisions will be sufficient to deal with the 3rd divisions but we do not expect a breakthrough but it will keep the 3rd unable to assist the V Corp.


The 16th Combined Arms Army with two divisions the 16th and 37th MRD both armed with T-54/5’s and the 60th Tank Division is armed with T-62’s. We had also attached newly reformed units of the GDR’s Army. The 7th Tank division as well as the 1 and 4th MRD with T-54/5. Also, there are three Rifle divisions all have complete artillery component and the infantry force is reinforced. It is felt that these divisions will be of great use considering the terrain these division will be operating in.

The next section of the line includes the Fulda Gap, this section of the line is protected by the American V Corp. One the southern end of the corps line is the 116th Infantry brigade. It is a National Guard light infantry brigade but the rugged mountainous terrain will favor that brigade when it defends that section of the line and it will receive minimal attention from our troops. We will attack the area more to occupy the unit rather than to take territory.



In front of the American frontline will be the 11th ACR. Now we will go to the divisions. Just to the north of the VII Corp, is the 8th Infantry division it is covering a frontline position of approximately 30 kilometers. The line runs from the Southeast to the Northwest. The line runs from just south of Gersfeld and running just east Fulda with the last part of the line running along a section of forest.

While the 4th Infantry Division covering the rest of the Fulda Gap in line running from the Southwest to the Northeast a length of some twenty-five kilometers. There is a line of wooded hills that the 4th Division has set up their defensive position. Running just to the southwest of Hunfeld to a just north of the village of Freidewalde. This section of the line was previously held by the 3rd Armored division but the 4th infantry division so now the 3rd Armored is being held in reserve along with the 4th brigade of the 4th Infantry division. Also, further back is the two regular army brigades the 194th Mechanized infantry brigade and the 197th Armored Brigade. The Americans are making a major effort to prevent the breakthrough of our forces.



We of course are going to make a major effort to breakthrough the American lines near Fulda. The forces involved will be the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army with has to begin with the 79th Guard Tank Division, the 27th, 39th ,57th Motorized Rifle Division. All these divisions are armed with either T-80’s or T-64’s. Then we have two category III division the 44th Tank division and the 34th MRD both armed with T-54/5’s and four of our mobilization only divisions will be commanded by two different corps the 4th Rifle Corp the351st, 352nd and the 5th Rifle Corp 353rd and 354th divisions. For support 51st and 80th Artillery Division. With the 1st Guards Army as the exploitation force. Its divisions are the 9th Tank division, 11th Guard Tank Division both are equipped with T-80’s and finally the 20th MRD with T-62’s. This force will be the operational maneuver group.
 
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Ricobirch

Monthly Donor
The main effort for the forces in Czechoslovakia will be the attack on the Bavaria. The forces defending the German side of the borders are a mixture of Bundeswehr, Territorial Army, Bavarian Border Guards and at least one division of American troops the 47th Infantry division and the 278th Armored Calvary Regiment and four brigades of Canadian troops. The 1st Gebirgsdivision with the 56th Local Defense Brigade will cover the border from the Austrian border to Bayerisch Eisentstein. I would point out that brigade is one of only two local defense brigades equipped with Leopard I’s and it has additional equipment above and beyond it normal TO&E.

Any chance we can get some maps before the shells start flying?
 
Where the Bundeswehr’s III Corp had been holding frontline positions, the two panzer division the 4th and 10th Panzer division, 1st Panzer Grenadier Division and the 25th Fallschrimjaeger along with the support elements of the 2nd Corp had been just pulled out of the line. Now, two of the newly formed British Army divisions of the British Army will defend the frontline positions. The decision to use the British division to defend a section of the line that had previously been defended by the Germans. Two of the divisions the 6th and 43rd are basically infantry divisions with small contingents of tanks, armored cars and APC’s. The 5th division still with the BOAR. There are reports of additional units from the American Army being move into the area. But as of yet we do not have any definite details as to which units are being placed.


The 43rd Wessex Division is the southern most division with a position running from just north of Freidewalde to ending a few kilometers to the north of the village of Sontra. The length of the line is just about twenty-five kilometers in length. With two brigades and a third brigade in reserve. The third brigade was just recently organized. It’s composed of the newly formed 9th RTR and a territorial unit the 3rd Yorkshire Volunteers converted to mechanized infantry. To this had been added the 1st Royal Anglican Regiment also utilizing Saxon APC’s. This addition gave the division a mechanized brigade. The newly formed brigade was named the 10th brigade. This section of the line is the closest to the East German border and is made up of rugged terrain. But intelligence believes that the addition of one battalion of regulars to the brigade to form a complete mechanized infantry brigade to from an effective mobile reserve.

The 6th division is in control of the next thirty kilometers of territory with the line beginning just north of the village of Sontra to a location just south of the village of Witzenhausen most of the terrain is pretty rugged and not good terrain for armored or mechanized units to operate in. Add on the fact that most of the battalions in the division are elite Guard or crack Highlander units all with long fighting tradition. The one Territorial brigade is not to be disparaged either since the core of these units are made up of people who pride themselves in being better than the regulars at their duties. Also, the XI Corp has been attached to this collection of three divisions. In reserve was the United States Army 107th Armored Cavalry Regiment. Force had been organized into a British Army Corp.




The attacking force in this area is the 29th Combined Arms Army with four MRD, the 52nd, 198th, 245th and the 275th these divisions are all category three armed with T54/5’s added on to these divisions will be a pair of the final wave divisions the 355th and the 356th as well as four penal brigades all under the command of the 6th Rifle Corp. While we do not expect any major breakthroughs the size of the forces should keep all three division in this section of the lines busy while we are attacking in more vital section of the line. But we do have an objection for our force in this section of the line and that is the city of Kassel. It is a transportation hub and industrial center. Taking Kassel will disrupt the movement of troops north and south. That could prevent NATO from shifting its force from one section of the front to another.

The next section of the line is the Belgium Army, the 16th Infantry division is fortifying the city of Witzenhausen and forming a defensive line running through a mixture of forest and hill then along a ridge line before turning to the northeast to the edge of the city of Gottingen.



The 2nd Infantry division will take the position starting Gottingen and they are fortifying the town as we speak. Then it will run through the hills to edge of the forest and hills where it will setup in positions along that ridge line ending east of the village of Nordheim. The 2nd infantry division is more of an ad hoc formation but it has been heavily reinforced. While a pair of battalions of M-47’s is being formed they are still not ready for combat. But do not be surprised of the battalions arrive before war breaks out. So, to provide a tank force as well as a divisional artillery the American Army has provided three of their National Guard brigades. An armored brigade the 31st Armored brigade, the 197th Artillery brigade and the 130th Artillery brigade. These units have been attached to the 2nd infantry division while the 1st Mechanized division will be the reserve formation for this section of the line.

The forces assigned to attack this section of the line will be carried out by the 10th Army with two Motorized Rifle Divisions the 88th and the 60th Also four class D divisions all under the command of the 7th Corp 357th, 358th, 359th, 360th as well as a pair of Soviet division the 1st Tank Division and the 1st Motorized Rifle Division have been formed into the 7th Tank Corp. The final two division are a sort of Operational Maneuver Group to take advantage of any breakthroughs.

The next section of the line is controlled by the British Army of the Rhine. The newly organized 5th division has been given the responsibility over this section of the line. The first section of the line runs thirty- five kilometers from just east of Nordheim to the village of Osterode am Hertz then through the village of Clausthal-Zellerfeld onto the village of Goslar. All the villages are fortified and the location of the line is close to the German border but the border shifts to the east and it allows the British Army to cover that section of the line better.



The next division in the line is the 1st Tank division it covers the line from Goslar north along this line of trees and then at the end of the line of trees the line turns north and east to a factory. The length of the line covered by this division is roughly thirty-five kilometers. Then the 4th Armored division will take over the line from the 1st Armored division. The line continues to the Northeast to the Brunswick and then to the north too the town of Gifhorn. The 2nd Infantry division still has the mission of rear area security while the 3rd Armored Division is the reserve component of the British Army of the Rhine.

Our plans are to have the 2nd Guard Army which has the 16th Guard TD, 21st MRD, 94th Guard MRD and the 207th MRD. We have also attached the 90th and 20th Tank division as the OMG the command structure is 25th Tank Corp. Also, the 34th Artillery division has been attached to the 2nd Guard Army. Also, six category D divisions the 9th Rifle Corp has the 361st,362nd ,363rd with the 10th Rifle Corp the 364th,365th and the 366th. Also, we have attached the 3rd Independent Assault Landing Brigade.

The next section of the line is controlled by the Netherland Army. The 4th Mechanized Division would be in the south part of the line. From Gifhorn, the line ran thirty-two kilometers north to a position just east of the town of Sprakensehl then turn to the north and east for another six kilometers. Then the 1st Mechanized division position runs north and east alone the tree line for roughly six kilometers and then turns east running along another series of forest tree line this section of the line goes for another twenty-four kilometers ending in the village Mammoisel. The 5th Mechanized division is being held in reserve while the newly form 2nd Infantry division is prepositioned in forested areas a few kilometers behind the front line.

The 42nd Corp with the 129th MRD and 42 Guard MRD with four category D divisions the 11th Rifle Corp the 361st, 362nd the 12th Rifle Corp the 363rd and the 364th divisions. All the units have been placed under the command of the 17th Army. Mission is to keep the Netherland Army so busy that it cannot shift forces to other areas of the front.

The German 1st Corp has occupied what essentially is a salient into our positions our forces are on three side of the German positions. Our intention is to cut it off and destroy it in a cauldron battle. Three division hold front line positions the 1st and 7th Panzer division as well as the 11th Panzer Grenadier division. The fourth division of the Corp, 3rd Panzer Division and the 27th Fallschirmjaeger brigade are the reserve forces.


The 1st Panzer division line runs from Mammoisel for twenty-six kilometers ending in the village of Prezelle the next section of the line is 11th Panzer Grenadier division running north from the village of Prezelle through the forest for ten kilometers to the village of Gorleben. Then from Gorleben along the Elbe river while keeping in the Forest edge for twelve kilometers. When the forest ends the line goes west twelve kilometers to the village of Hitzacker. Finally, the 7th Panzer Division to cover the remainder of the line. That section of the line runs from Hitzacker along the river Elbe to the town of Bleckede a distance of twenty-seven kilometers and then from Bleckede, eleven kilometers to the town of Ludersburg and from Ludersburg to the village of Artlenburg for another eight kilometers

Special consideration for this salient and its attack. The 13th Combined Arms Army with three divisions the 51st, 97th ,161st MRD and the 73rd Artillery division and the 7th independent Landing Assault Brigade. This army will attack at the junction of the Netherland Army and the German 1st Corp with the intent to cut across the salient and isolating the 1st Corp and destroying it. Along the rest of the line of the 1st Panzer Division will be attacked by the 21st Tank Corp with the 117th Guard Tank division and the 60th MRD. While the 11th Panzer Grenadier formed in the forest section of its line three Category D divisions the 365th,366th and the 367th MRD the 18th Rifle Corp will control that operation. A second attack on the 11th Pg Div. will be carried out by the 4th Guards Tank Division and the 2nd Tank Division with the 149th Guard Artillery division in support, under the control of the 25th Guard Corp forcing a crossing of the Elbe River. The final attack will be on the 7th PHz Div. It will be carried out by the 5th Independent Guards Corp with the 16th Artillery division in support also across the Elbe River.
 
I hope that before the shooting starts the bulk of that German corps will be pulled out of the salient to prepared fallback positions, only delaying forces and lots of mines/booby traps left behind. Yes the Germans don't want to yield anything to the Soviets but maintaining this will be throwing away a large formation for no gain. Since NATO knows when the attack eill come this can be timed nicely.
 
Well the orders to pull out of the Salient were issued on the 17 Aug and the actual withdrawal was to begin on the 19 Aug. So they have forty or so hours to pull out of the salient before the ultimatum runs out plus when the WARSAW PACT begins its attack. So it all depend on how fast the 1 corp and its dependent units came move out of the salient. They will need to plan the movement of troops out of the salient so that the movement will not be slowed by traffic jams
 
Good to see common sense has prevailed, I assume the engineers are busy preparing defenses at some logical spot back a bit. Given the relatively short time between the beginning of the withdrawal and the scheduled attack, it is highly likely that by the time that the withdrawal is confirmed by Soviet intelligence, this confirmation reaches STAVKA or the front HQ, and decisions could be made it will not be possible to change the orders for the units scheduled to make the attacks and they will hit a more or less empty sack, and also in doing so expose their flanks. The OODA loop strikes again. Even if the local commanders see how the situation has changed, in the Soviet system doing something other than the plan (especially in the initial stages) is something not tolerated.
 
Good to see common sense has prevailed, I assume the engineers are busy preparing defenses at some logical spot back a bit. Given the relatively short time between the beginning of the withdrawal and the scheduled attack, it is highly likely that by the time that the withdrawal is confirmed by Soviet intelligence, this confirmation reaches STAVKA or the front HQ, and decisions could be made it will not be possible to change the orders for the units scheduled to make the attacks and they will hit a more or less empty sack, and also in doing so expose their flanks. The OODA loop strikes again. Even if the local commanders see how the situation has changed, in the Soviet system doing something other than the plan (especially in the initial stages) is something not tolerated.

What type of German units would be left behind in the area formerly held by I GE CORPS for hit and run/harrassment/find/fix and call in artillery/airstrike missions?
 
NATO had SOF units specifically designated for stay behind, and while I have no personal knowledge of this, I expect there were hides and potential supply dumps all over the place. Hopefully all of these would be fully stocked by the time bad things started to happen, especially since this is a crisis that has been evolving over significant time. I recall reading that early in WWII such places were set up in the UK in case of German invasion for continued resistance.

On another matter, I expect the FBI has a list of folks to take in to custody once the shooting starts. This is in addition to known agents being tracked to help expose networks but also the folks in the "peace movement" who might continue to try and organize activities that would hinder the war effort (sabotaging switches, sitting down in front of convoys, organizing strikes etc at war plants).
 
sloreck- Well once the withdrawal become really apparent. I believe the command of Group of Soviet Forces in Germany would at least to one degree or another modify the attack plan such as canceling the attacks over the river in the areas abandoned but rest of the force would probably move into the salient and concentrate forces for the next assault. Yes and i will have a post from a meeting later on 19 Aug between the Netherlands 1 corp and the German 1 corp breaking down who is responsible for what section of the line.
 
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