Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

[kelgar04]

Taking a look at Turkeys military at the time of World War 2 there forces aren’t really in a state to fight on the modern battle field right now, if anything I think keeping them neutral is still the best bet since it keep the Straits closed to the military as well if given the victories in NA they can be persuaded to cut off supplying Chromite and other materials to German that would be a big help and eat into their war effort.

 

[yulzari1]

Taking a look at Turkeys military at the time of World War 2 there forces aren’t really in a state to fight on the modern battle field right now, if anything I think keeping them neutral is still the best bet since it keep the Straits closed to the military as well if given the victories in NA they can be persuaded to cut off supplying Chromite and other materials to German that would be a big help and eat into their war effort.

I agree but if an invasion to liberate the Balkans were to be planned then European Turkey might give an undefended beach head for the initial landing and at least the eastern flank defended by the Turks. Essentially a neutral allied biased Turkey is the best risk/benefit for the allies though.

 

[MarcH]

I agree but if an invasion to liberate the Balkans were to be planned then European Turkey might give an undefended beach head for the initial landing and at least the eastern flank defended by the Turks. Essentially a neutral allied biased Turkey is the best risk/benefit for the allies though.

I doubt any liberation of the Balkans will be planned ITTL. Their liberation offers very little to the Allies.
Invading Sicily and Northern Europe at a minimum are both more valuable at a minimum compared to the Balkans.
Sicily frees up the Mediterranean for shipping and basically makes it a British/Allied lake. Invading the continent proper should be a no brainer to anyone.

The only way I could see any of the Balkans getting invaded is if Britain decides to liberate some of Mainland Greece before the war's end for PR and political purposes.

 

[kelgar04]

The only way I could see any of the Balkans getting invaded is if Britain decides to liberate some of Mainland Greece before the war's end for PR and political purposes.

Given there is probably more of a Free Greek Presence given they both held Crete and are going to start to liberate major Greek Islands I can see some sort of a bigger push for this OTL in some ways.

 

[MattII]

Given there is probably more of a Free Greek Presence given they both held Crete and are going to start to liberate major Greek Islands I can see some sort of a bigger push for this OTL in some ways.

I think they'd go for the Aegean islands first.

 

[Karelian]

I doubt any liberation of the Balkans will be planned ITTL. Their liberation offers very little to the Allies.
Invading Sicily and Northern Europe at a minimum are both more valuable at a minimum compared to the Balkans.
Sicily frees up the Mediterranean for shipping and basically makes it a British/Allied lake. Invading the continent proper should be a no brainer to anyone.

The only way I could see any of the Balkans getting invaded is if Britain decides to liberate some of Mainland Greece before the war's end for PR and political purposes.

Sir Winston was really eager to get allies involved to the Balkans, and TTL poor Brooke will have less excuses to keep the PM in check.
Also:
We should all remember that before Stalingrad people of the day had no way to know how the Nazi-Soviet death struggle in the East would turn out.

All these people making the grand strategic decisions of the day knew was that the last time Russia was fighting a world war, they folded under pressure.
And RN the Red Army has taken historically massive losses in terms of soldiers, equipment and land area. So creating a new Thessaloniki Front-type diversion to return to the continent and to divert Nazi resources is a position that might have more merit, especially considering the fact that the British manpower situation is not (yet) as dire as it was in OTL.

 

[MattII]

One thing that could be done with the Balkans (and Greece in particular) is a much larger SOE/partisan presence.

 

[MarcH]

Sir Winston was really eager to get allies involved to the Balkans, and TTL poor Brooke will have less excuses to keep the PM in check.
Also:
We should all remember that before Stalingrad people of the day had no way to know how the Nazi-Soviet death struggle in the East would turn out.

All these people making the grand strategic decisions of the day knew was that the last time Russia was fighting a world war, they folded under pressure.
And RN the Red Army has taken historically massive losses in terms of soldiers, equipment and land area. So creating a new Thessaloniki Front-type diversion to return to the continent and to divert Nazi resources is a position that might have more merit, especially considering the fact that the British manpower situation is not (yet) as dire as it was in OTL.

It's not just Churchill though, the Americans are involved now and Britain can't just dictate to them the course of the war. There is also the logistics side of things to consider. If any invasion of the Balkans is to take place then the convoy routes round Africa and past the cape of good hope is not conducive to maintaining a major land campaign against an enemy with land links.
If there was to be any involvement in mainland Greece let alone the Balkans at large then securing Sicily becomes a requirement to allow the easy movement of convoys through the Mediterranean. Add in the service chiefs and the RN in particular and it's won't just be Brooke trying to influence the PM. The RN will be very keen on the capture of Sicily to again open the Mediterranean not for any Balkan adventure but to ease supplying the Far East.

The easy bit is capturing Aegean islands in the short to medium term. They will be resource light to capture, give good PR and if there will be any invasion of Greece will help support it.

Beyond that though America will, as in OTL, be pushing hard for an invasion of mainland Europe. Their will likely be no need for an OTL style Torch invasion so Sicily could become that but it will be hard for Britain to push back against the idea of an invasion of the Continent. That will be in part because they have not had the long sting of defeats against the Germans and Japanese. In fact they are in a reasonably good place and the only way to end the war is to invade the continent. As soon as you look at where to invade Northern France is a much better place to invade than the Balkans. Any spare troops or resources could go to the Balkans but that's it.

 

[kelgar04]

I think they'd go for the Aegean islands first.

aye they are more than likely to try and go after them first. Heck more Free Greek Territory means more Greek Manpower that can be used as well as the odd mines and smelters that dot the islands can help

Sir Winston was really eager to get allies involved to the Balkans, and TTL poor Brooke will have less excuses to keep the PM in check.

That why old chap they keep a cricket vbat known as Winstons good idea stick.

 

[MarcH]

aye they are more than likely to try and go after them first. Heck more Free Greek Territory means more Greek Manpower that can be used as well as the odd mines and smelters that dot the island can help

The bigger benefit is any ongoing Aegean campaign is a threat to Greece. Any sort of Operation mincemeat will be far more effective as the threat to Greece will be far more real. That will require a far bigger German and Italian troop presence in Greece meaning other fronts will be weaker.

 

[kelgar04]

The bigger benefit is any ongoing Aegean campaign is a threat to Greece. Any sort of Operation mincemeat will be far more effective as the threat to Greece will be far more real. That will require a far bigger German and Italian troop presence in Greece meaning other fronts will be weaker.

Truth evidence shows it in question and they can drop the bag in question in the same place to boot may make TTL Sicily easier if they think its coming on the other side of the med.

Heck two pronged approach could go through Spain same and have something get leaked through Turkey

 

[vizzer]

The best way to liberate the Balkans will be to defeat Germany which has to be done anyway.

 

[allanpcameron]

5 March 1942. London, England.

Lord Louis Mountbatten, Combined Operations Advisor to the Chiefs of Staff, was attempting to finalise some of his work before setting off to Egypt and places beyond. His Combined Operations staff had plenty of work to get on with during his absence, but he couldn’t help himself from leaving a ‘to do’ list for his subordinates.

The biggest question that his staff had to find an answer to was opening a second front at the behest of Stalin and the Soviets. Mountbatten was aware that a good portion of the amphibious craft needed for a second front were in the Mediterranean, and until these could be replaced by new ships, the ability to land even a Brigade sized force on enemy shores was going to be a struggle.

Everyone was hollering for a ‘Second Front Now’ as if, magically he could do a Dunkirk the other way round. General Alan Brooke, the new CIGS, had made it clear that the Infantry and Armoured Divisions in the UK were sufficient to stop an enemy invasion, but not capable of creating a second front.

For the Prime Minister, the idea of taking Rhodes, the Dodecanese and then back onto mainland Greece was something of a dream. Mountbatten’s trip to Egypt was to see whether or not that was a dream or a Gallipoli-like nightmare. The request from Auchinleck for amphibious resources to look at recapturing Borneo was another possible headache. Mountbatten’s intention was to go on to Java after Egypt to evaluate what was happening there, then he planned to return via America, where he hoped to look at the US Marine Corps way of working.

The idea of a cross-channel raid had been looked at, but there were all sorts of problems with pulling something off that was actually doable. Mountbatten’s preferred option was to continue as many Commando raids as possible. They might only be pin-pricks but having the whole of Europe’s coast on alert was going to make some kind of impact of the Germans. The Germans had the advantage of being able to move large numbers of men around Europe by train, giving them the upper-hand. Britain and America currently just weren’t able to put a large force on enemy soil and supply them, or indeed, protect them with RAF support.

The Canadians were getting antsy about not having played much of a role so far. Mountbatten had invited Lieutenant-General Andrew McNaughton (GOC I Canadian Corps) to provide troops to learn the art of amphibious warfare. So far, a number of visits of Canadian Staff had been made to Mountbatten’s HQ and some exercises, but without any firm commitment. If a couple of Canadian divisions did the kind of training that would be necessary, then Combined Operations would begin to have real teeth.

That still didn’t deal with the ‘Second Front Now’ crowd. First thing on the ‘to do’ list was to plan out a large scale (Brigade sized) raid on the enemy coast, with proper sea and air support, limited objectives and secure withdrawal in place. Once that had been planned and war-gammed it would be up to the Chiefs of the Imperial General Staff to decide whether or not it fitted the bill to keep Stalin happy.

The invasion of Rhodes was likely to be a bigger effort than what Mountbatten was proposing on the coast of France or Belgium. He was desperate to see just what exactly Wavell’s planners had in store. He was particularly interested in seeing how air cover would be achieved. Rhodes was a fair distance from any friendly airfield, so how the RAF would support the invasion would be interesting. As would be the presence of the Fleet Air Arm, though with only one aircraft carrier available, there would be a real problem to solve.

The other question about Rhodes was what kind of fight the Italians would put up? They’d been under siege for some time, presumably therefore weakened. The Italian army’s showing so far in the war wasn’t covered in glory. Either the Australians would have a bit of walk over, or perhaps a real fight on their hands. It would be the latter that people like Mountbatten would like to see from a planning and learning point of view, though everyone else would be happier with a walk-over.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Better the Canadians find out that tanks don't like shingle on a beach in Rhodes than in a raid on Dieppe

 

[MattII]

Better the Canadians find out that tanks don't like shingle on a beach in Rhodes than in a raid on Dieppe

Rhodes has shingle beaches? Well that's an interesting, and useful fact to note.

 

[kelgar04]

Rhodes has shingle beaches? Well that's an interesting, and useful fact to note.

Depends where they are looking to land like Afandou Beach is rocky but I think from memory there are more sandy beaches than shingle, Leros I think would be a better demonstration if other operations were to happen to take place in the chain.

Huh you know given the way things are shaping up and the fact that there is more and likely not any German Presence yet on Rhodes or any Greek Islands it may effectively butterfly the disastrous OTL Dodecanese campaign especially since it will make it easier to take the other Islands in Dodecanese and given a number are in the air envelope of Crete as well it make air cover easier.

It also means as well that the units and ships lost which were 1 cruiser crippled, 3 cruisers damaged, 6 destroyers sunk, 4 destroyers damaged, 3 submarines sunk, 4 submarines damaged, 10 minesweepers and coastal defence ships sunk during it along with 113 aircraft destroyed will potentially survive to be deployed elsewhere. Adding to this as well given it was a major victory OTL encouraged Spain to keep sending Tungsten to Germany for a while longer. If Rhodes and other Islands are lost on top of other reversers that have happened ITTL we may see most non-alginned nations cut off earlier. On top of this as well their is the humanitarian factor as well since no round up and exectutionm of the Islands Jewish population.

 

[MattII]

Depends where they are looking to land like Afandou Beach is rocky but I think from memory there are more sandy beaches than shingle, Leros I think would be a better demonstration if other operations were to happen to take place in the chain.

Checking, and Kalathos Beach appears to be shingles, at least partially. Hopefully enough that, if they land there, they're going to have a bit of a struggle getting up, at least enough to

Huh you know given the way things are shaping up and the fact that there is more and likely not any German Presence yet on Rhodes or any Greek Islands it may effectively butterfly the disastrous OTL Dodecanese campaign especially since it will make it easier to take the other Islands in Dodecanese and given a number are in the air envelope of Crete as well it make air cover easier.

Many of them are going to be within the air umbrella of Rhodes too, once they fix up the airports the Italians so helpfully built.

It also means as well that the units and ships lost which were 1 cruiser crippled, 3 cruisers damaged, 6 destroyers sunk, 4 destroyers damaged, 3 submarines sunk, 4 submarines damaged, 10 minesweepers and coastal defence ships sunk during it along with 113 aircraft destroyed will potentially survive to be deployed elsewhere. Adding to this as well given it was a major victory OTL encouraged Spain to keep sending Tungsten to Germany for a while longer. If Rhodes and other Islands are lost on top of other reversers that have happened ITTL we may see most non-alginned nations cut off earlier. On top of this as well their is the humanitarian factor as well since no round up and exectutionm of the Islands Jewish population.

Yep, all of that is very good.

 

[kelgar04]

Yep, all of that is very good.

Aye TBH one of the best things with the more victories that Britain has had compared to OTL is the more Axis leaning none involved nations are less willing to trade with them like if much less Chromite from Turkey and Tungsten for Spain and Portugal it wil have a negative impact on the German and Italian war effort.

 

[Sqdn19]

The best way to liberate the Balkans will be to defeat Germany which has to be done anyway.

The difficulty is getting there before the Soviets do.

We entered the war to defend Poland, and it was only Swedish & Danish neutrality that stopped us defending Finland.

If someone gave Churchill the idea about moving the Iron Curtain East, he’d probably agree all the more with “fringe operations.”

To that end, the only ways to get to Poland & Czechoslovakia is up through Italy, or the Balkans. Neither have good territory, but possibly the Partisans would make Yugoslavia easier. On the other hand, logistics would be worse. Especially if the Adriatic was under Luftwaffe interdiction.

The other way is “Fortitude North”; to go back into Narvik and then across into Finland - the way the Germans retreated in the Lapland War. Again, the Finns would be happy to become co-belligerent. (Especially if they get status quo ante bellum borders). But apart from making the North Cape passage easier, flushing out the Tirpitz, Scharnhorst & Gneisenau, and cutting off German iron ore access, it doesn’t offer much more. The Commonwealth & Finns could potentially at a pinch liberate Estonia, but anything more than that I think is effectively impossible, despite CanKiwi’s enjoyable & sadly frozen TL.

We know that the Bulgarians, Romanians and Hungarians all tried to switch side as the Red Army approached. CIGS probably couldn’t forecast this, but after Stalingrad the writing is on the wall.

However, it probably doesn’t take too much analysis to realise that
1. The Red Army won’t get to the channel ports
2. Highly unlikely to get to Denmark*
3. Chiang Kai-Shek & the KMT is an even bigger black hole**

All this makes Brooke’s life harder ITL.

* A direct invasion of Denmark is also unwise as the Germans could simply run trains full of panzer divisions there. The same problem can be said for France, which the unblooded Americans will be pushing for. There are some islands off the Danish, German and Dutch coasts, however, where that advantage would be mitigated…

**And unless he can be persuaded to extend the Hong Kong lease, it doesn’t seem that the Far East offers much benefits for Britain, the Commonwealth or Empire. The Japs can slowly starve without DEI oil; the RN is quite good at blockading given all the practice they’ve had.

Finally, I motion for any good long analysis posts be named “RRs” after their developer.

EDIT: The Americans, with their good relations with Vichy, might be able to pull off Dragoon after the invasion of Sicily, and convince Petain to change sides. That could have significant ramifications if possible. It’s also likely be easier than Omaha, Utah, & the Bocage.

 

[kelgar04]

All this makes Brooke’s life harder ITL.

At this rate, the poor man will have a drinking problem by the end of the War.

* A direct invasion of Denmark is also unwise as the Germans could simply run trains full of panzer divisions there. The same problem can be said for France, which the unblooded Americans will be pushing for. There are some islands off the Danish, German and Dutch coasts, however, where that advantage would be mitigated…

Yep though it will take time to load those tanks the Germans can shove a force down any invasion force's throat in Denmark quicker than they could in France and without the proper spade work it would just be a disastrous failure.

**And unless he can be persuaded to extend the Hong Kong lease, it doesn’t seem that the Far East offers much benefits for Britain, the Commonwealth or Empire. The Japs can slowly starve without DEI oil; the RN is quite good at blockading given all the practice they’ve had.

Missed out him and his cronies as well as his wife's family selling what they can get away with without someone like Adrian Carton de Wiart standing over them with a very heavy club to stop them. Heck given he probably wasn't made a POW ITTL he may be sent out there sooner, man is as tough as an old pair of boots and has a rep that anyone would respect out there, except for that little cult leader Mao who is a waste of space.