Se Deus quiser, há-de brilhar! - Uma História do Império Português (Updated 01/21)

Very interesting TL. I'm following this from now on.

Just a suggestion: throughout most of Modern Era Portugal wasn't able to feed itself and was dependent on wheat imports. You incorporated Spanish areas mostly related to cattle and sheep herding, so, I think that problem will persist. IMHO the best geopolitical choice to have a cheap source of grain is to occupy and/or have a special relationship with Morocco somewhere along the way, as I think it would be complicated to depend on Spain or any other European nation for grain.
During Napoleónicas wars the English purchased their food from Morocco.

So it makes sense that Morocco becomes Portugal’s breadbasket. To accomplish that realistically could be as follows.

During the 16th century you could have Portugal increase its imprint in North Africa by conquering all the coast north of Mazagao make kingdom of Fez a vassal of Portugal and it plus Portuguese North Africa becomes Portugal’s breadbasket.

integration of fez and even conquest or Maraquez could happen in the 17th century.
 
Meh, Portugal's inability to feed itself was the thing that enabled us to form a large colonial empire despite our small size - people had an incentive to move to the colonies.

Food self-sufficiecy may not be the best way to go in a colonialism-focused TL...
 
Meh, Portugal's inability to feed itself was the thing that enabled us to form a large colonial empire despite our small size - people had an incentive to move to the colonies.

Food self-sufficiecy may not be the best way to go in a colonialism-focused TL...
Indeed. But it favored Brazil mostly, not Portugal. You need a food surplus to feed a large urban population, thus, people fled to the colonies, not to the cities. By the beginning of the 19th century, Portugal serves merely as a middle man between the rich colonies and Britain... I assume that this TL focus on a better Portugal.
 
Indeed. But it favored Brazil mostly, not Portugal. You need a food surplus to feed a large urban population, thus, people fled to the colonies, not to the cities. By the beginning of the 19th century, Portugal serves merely as a middle man between the rich colonies and Britain... I assume that this TL focus on a better Portugal.
For a long time, Brazil was Portugal, as were all the other colonies.

As I understand, the focus is on the Portuguese colonial empire (particularly on Asia going by Gintoki Sakata's planning thread). So I'd say that emigration rates similar to OTL would be a good thing.

The 19th century is very far away, and there is plenty of time to provide for ways to make mainland Portugal more economically developed (particularly when industrialisation starts becoming a thing) and I would advise against any changes that might jeopardize colonization efforts
 
The advantages of stronger and larger metropolitan Portugal is that it can better control the colonial empire it acquires.

the extra groups Galicians and Leonese plus North African will provide it with larger population pool.

the major issue with population from Iberian peninsula and even morocco is that the terrain, soil type and even precipitation all limit population size. So what this larger population provides is a larger pool for colonist, administrators, soldiers and sailors to manage the colonial empire and trade network.

example Galicians could establish several outposts and settlement in the gulf of st Lawrence area.

Even with larger size including North Africa Portugal still will not become as self reliant and self centered as France did.

trade will still be the lifeline for the country by obtaining African, Indian and Asian goods to trade for food and manufactured goods from Europe.

so I not worried about the potential negative impact about larger Portugal. For if we look at our size it became a major limitation early on in our colonial effort.
 
About Castilian expansion the Portuguese have an incentive to help, since they are ruled by a branch of the avis dynasty and would probably be allied with portugal. so portugal helping them with granada is something that will probably happen(castile conquers all of granada)(portugal takes the roll of aragon)
Castile will also probably look to expand at the expense of aragon in the future as well
Also in theory portugal and castile can enter into a personal union at some point in the future
 
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About Castilian expansion the Portuguese have an incentive to help, since they are ruled by a branch of the avis dynasty and would probably be allied with portugal. so portugal helping them with granada is something that will probably happen(castile conquers all of granada)(portugal takes the roll of aragon)
Castile will also probably look to expand at the expense of aragon in the future as well
Also in theory portugal and castile can enter into a personal union at some point in the future
Ok I not going to pronounce for or against either of the Castile take Aragon. For any war against Aragon has a good chance of dragging in other players such as France.

we already have Portugal and France guaranteeing Navarra independence. Therefore France guaranteeing Aragon independence not out of question. Could we see a Castile and Aragon Union? Just as likely as Portugal Castile Union.

the main thing is that we now have 3 countries of equal size on the Iberian peninsula. How it progresses is not determined.

the main priority for Portugal is also to keep France out of Iberian peninsula. If that means allying with another country so be it.
 
Don't see why keeping France out is so important for Portugal? I mean, the main enemy, the only real enemy that could realisticly try to conquer Portugal is still Castille, so, why not having a counterbalance against them? Portugal and France are natural allies against Castille.
 
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About "Spain", I think that Leonese identity will not so easy be replaced with Portuguese, so why not try to integrate them in some larger whole- "Spain", with Portuguese language becoming like OTL Spanish/Castillian?
 
I'm against any large scale Portuguese involvement in N. Africa, because it will bring them into endless conflict against Arabs/Mislima, and: a) reduce strength of Portugal against Castille, like involvement of Spain in European wars in OTL, b) hamper colonial expansion.
So, maybe a few enclaves like Ceuta or Tangiers, but not more. Because any advantages of having larger Portugal will be wasted in Morocco.
 
The advantages of stronger and larger metropolitan Portugal is that it can better control the colonial empire it acquires.

the extra groups Galicians and Leonese plus North African will provide it with larger population pool.

the major issue with population from Iberian peninsula and even morocco is that the terrain, soil type and even precipitation all limit population size. So what this larger population provides is a larger pool for colonist, administrators, soldiers and sailors to manage the colonial empire and trade network.

example Galicians could establish several outposts and settlement in the gulf of st Lawrence area.

Even with larger size including North Africa Portugal still will not become as self reliant and self centered as France did.

trade will still be the lifeline for the country by obtaining African, Indian and Asian goods to trade for food and manufactured goods from Europe.

so I not worried about the potential negative impact about larger Portugal. For if we look at our size it became a major limitation early on in our colonial effort.
I agree that adding Galiza and Leon was a good thing. The extra population will help, but only as long as the country is still overpopulated.

Otherwise the consequences would be not just a smaller percentage of people willing to try their luck in the colonies but also less political commitment to the project of imperial expansion.

If adding a sizeable portion of North Africa still leaves us overpopulated, I'm all for it, though I must somewhat agree with Mister Mister on this. It will not be a walk in the park, a huge amount of resources will have to be spent on acquiring these territories, not to mention keep them (we'd find ourselves involved in a huge war every time that some nearby Muslim polity regained some measure of stability under an ambitious prince or something).

Also, whatever North African holdings Portugal ends up getting ITTL, I strongly recommend that they be ran as colonies, not split up into feudal domains and given to nobles Reconquista-style. Strengthening the aristocracy is another thing that could hamper expansion towards Subsaharan Africa and Asia
 
The reconquista mentality that had gripped and dominated Iberian countries since the 12th century continued well into the 16th century and it is not something that we can just wish away or write away.

iotl it took the death of Portuguese king and most of country’s nobles to put a stop to it while the Spanish involvement in new world and European political and military affairs to distracted the Spanish but they too invaded and captured a few enclaves along Mediterranean.

Portuguese anti-Muslim mentality and reconquista desire went into everything they did in the 15-16th century. For example:
  • We ran out of Muslims to fight in Iberian peninsula so we invaded North Africa.
  • We went around the Muslims in North Africa to west Africa to cut off the Muslim traders.
  • We attacked Muslim countries and people in Indian Ocean.
  • Tried unsuccessfully to conquer Aden.
We can feel that it was a huge waste of resources and huge distraction but it was part of what makes us who we are. To try and stop this is unrealistic and during the 15-16th century as futile as stopping the sun from rising.

How we guide the Portuguese to slowly over a century continue to expand while exploiting North African affairs to weaken its opponents such as making Fez a vassal, while at same time not become dragged into never ending war, will be crucial. A fez vassal that say requires it pay Portuguese in manpower and grain (or something similar). Remember we advocating coastal holding while leaving interior alone.

as for feudal holdings in North Africa that not a detriment. For feudal holding means they responsible for defense. We should gradually make North Africa part of metropolitan Portugal but that for later centuries.

Note: We have to understand Portuguese conquest and settlement on the Iberian peninsula. The majority of the Lands north of Tejo River were controlled by nobles who had to support the king and provided tax revenue while majority of land south of Tejo River was controlled and owned by church which provided nada to the country only the church.

so maybe a trade where large portions of church lands turned over to king and nobles on Iberian for new lands in North Africa. Conquest of North Africa could be followed by movement of original Muslims residents to the Iberian peninsula scattered amongst the country and in return settlement of newly conquered land by Portuguese.

As for population the new areas to the East I believe they will be population exporters. If the country brings in slaves to work public projects such as kings roads and new castles and such paid for by trade. Make sure new churches and religious building also built to maintain religious harmony. I remember reading that in 1500 1/4 of Lisbon was slaves. The country nobles need to Expand lands under cultivation which is fastest way to expand population. Give nobles and regions targets in production of goods and agricultural that force them to expand not sit in their hands. Expand our university program build an additional university in Leon for example and other technical programs. (Remember the time and era though). Look for advances from other regions and countries. We took a lot of Arab invocations when we conquered their lands no reason we not learn.

edit to add additional points and clarification
 
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I'm back, finals was rough (I was about to get screwed by the Linux course final but I got a B+ on it) as well as spending my Thanksgiving and Black Friday with my family, so there's a lot of interesting responses. Hopefully I can update my TL by this weekend.

Well he still goes to Portugal in 1480s probably still goes to Madeira and maybe canaries. When he presents his idea to portuguese Corte I still expect it to be rejected.

Now here is where we have major deviation. As iotl the Italian trading nations Genoa, and Venice not interested. He travels back to Iberian peninsula but here he should find a different reception. A weaker Castile and Mediterranean centered Aragon would reject Columbus. He then travel France and England.

we can have him rejected or the idea I like best is he stays around French Corte for few years. On retainer so that no one else gets his services.

as news of Portuguese discoveries in Africa slowly filter to France, the french king finally agrees to finance an expedition say 1495. He sails from britany and tries going but south but never get below Iberian peninsula. His voyage be slower since he going against current and might hit a storm loosing one of his 3-4 ships. With the crew ready to mutiny the reach Carolinas.
I think they meet natives but things not go so smoothly and some confrontation occurs.
He then sails south as far as Tallahassee Florida before lack of provisions and angry crew force him to sail East. Ships damaged sailing East and forced to layover in Azores where he and crew arrested. They transported to Lisbon and after meeting portuguese corte and protest from French ambassador they released.

returns to France but lack of treasure, hostile natives make his return less than happy. He kept in France fir few years while French ponder what to do.

new of Vasco Gama trip reaches Paris in 1499 and Columbus summoned and new expedition readied.

now we should get France and Portugal to come to some agreement. Portuguese not know what out there but at moment they most powerful navy. So some sort of agreement is established that limits France claims to south (remember renegotiated later).

secound expedition establish fort near Tallahassee and he sails south along coast till reach keys. He reached Cuba and sails East reaches Bahamas / kaikos island before sailing to France.


third expedition he tries north and reached gulf of st Lawrence even st Lawrence River but then forced to return.

He not given a fourth expedition that left to others.

I think that Castile in 1500-1510 sends its own expedition and reaches Caribbean. England also sends its expedition to gulf st Lawrence and new foundland.
Probably I can get Columbus to serve for France TTL based on this post, so a French "USA" (AKA a bigger New France from Quebec to California) is up for this timeline. The Castilian expedition in the early 1500s will still lead to a New Spain but it's smaller with OTL Mexico, Central America and Greater Antilles.

As for the Incas, with a Portugal doubled its size, probably Tawantinsuyu will become a Portuguese vassal like the Kongo (@kasumigenx) and the Sapa Inca converts to Catholicism (but under a separate rite due to Jesuit influence) after a successful negotiation by Francisco Pizzaro (who could probably serve for Portugal TTL while his distant cousin Cortes still does his things in Mexico for Castile). This could mean lots of silver from Potosi for Portugal to invest in the metropolitan and overseas areas. Tondo galleons from Tondo to Calhao anyone?

During Napoleónicas wars the English purchased their food from Morocco.

So it makes sense that Morocco becomes Portugal’s breadbasket. To accomplish that realistically could be as follows.

During the 16th century you could have Portugal increase its imprint in North Africa by conquering all the coast north of Mazagao make kingdom of Fez a vassal of Portugal and it plus Portuguese North Africa becomes Portugal’s breadbasket.

integration of fez and even conquest or Maraquez could happen in the 17th century.
About Castilian expansion the Portuguese have an incentive to help, since they are ruled by a branch of the avis dynasty and would probably be allied with portugal. so portugal helping them with granada is something that will probably happen(castile conquers all of granada)(portugal takes the roll of aragon)
Castile will also probably look to expand at the expense of aragon in the future as well
Also in theory portugal and castile can enter into a personal union at some point in the future
There will be a major war in the early 16th century (The Granadine War) as @Lusitania suggested in post #38 with a few changes like Granada becoming part of Castile (except for the area around Malaga which is ceded to Portugal). Portugal will take coastal parts of Morocco with vassals in the interior (Fez, Marrakech) so the Portuguese can have a stable, independent grain supply.
 
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Columbus can die, he could sail for Portugal. The story is yours. I simply wanted to draw out which country could of been a patron of Columbus.
 
Chapter 5 - Há mar e mar, há ir e voltar
Chapter 5 - Há mar e mar, há ir e voltar

- The Gomes Monopoly and Guinea -​

Although Henry the Navigator’s death in 1460 led to Afonso V’s indifference to continuing to continuing his work, he did how an interest in the West African trade. In 1469, he decided to lease the royal monopoly of African trade (except for the feitoria in Arguim) to a certain cavaleiro-mercador (that is, a minor noble and a merchant) from Lisbon under the name of Fernão Gomes. Under an annual rent of 200,000 reais, he was to explore 100 leagues of the African coast per year for five years, and was also received a monopoly of trade in guinea pepper for another yearly payment of 100,000 reais.

Although under indirect control of the crown, given the fragmentary nature of the sources, by the time his lease expired in 1474, just as the Castilian succession crisis was about to erupt, Gomes’s ships sailed past the lagoons and swamps of the Ivory Coast and the Niger River delta and explored all of Upper and Lower Guinea and beyond up to Cape Lopes just south of the Equator. In total, the nautical distance Gomes explored as roughly the same as what Prince Henry did.

1024px-Elmina_Castle_-_Ghana.jpg

Elmina Castle
In addition, three years earlier in 1471, he reached the site of what is to be Elmina in the Gold Coast, where they found a thriving alluvial gold trade. With the substantial profits he got from the gold and the overall African trade, Gomes assisted Afonso V in his Moroccan conquests, as well as providing the compensation given to the Castilians in the Treaty of Mérida in 1477, and was subsequently knighted in Tânger. He would eventually become a member of the royal council, with honors and enormous economic influence.

Given the large amount of profit generated from Elmina, João II ordered a feitoria and the fort of São Jorge da Mina to be built on the site in 1481 to manage and protect the local gold trade as part of a royal monopoly. He appointed Diogo de Azambuja to oversee the development of the possession, with a fleet consisting of nine caravels and two ships, with 600 soldiers and 100 masons and carpenters. The construction was quickly completed in 20 days, despite native resistance. Azambuja was named the first governor of the Portuguese Gold Coast, and João II added the title “Lord of Guinea” to his list of noble titles. By the end of the 16th century 24,000 ounces of gold (or a tenth of the world’s supply at the time) were produced from the Portuguese Gold Coast.

Since Guinea is more green and populated than what they had explored along the Saharan coast, they had to make observations more thoroughly. Guinea had many great rivers, and the Portuguese explorers sometimes sailed upstream the rivers for hundreds of kilometers, like the Gambia and Niger rivers. From there, various local peoples were contacted and their locations are noted, with descriptions of local manners, customs and wildlife. Some incursions were made into nearby hinterlands and even into the deep interior, despite the fear of deadly diseases at the time. Such journeys were sometimes utilized in order to contact the legendary Christian ruler of Africa by the name of Prester John via the Senegal or the Gambia, and also to find a way to the rich gold mines deep into the interior. It was during the late 15th century that Portuguese agents manage to visit Timbuktu and establish relations with the Mali Empire.

607px-Caillie_1830_Timbuktu_view.jpg

The legendary city of Timbuktu
The discoveries made in Guinea did much to stimulate Portuguese interest in the diverse peoples and cultures through information-gathering and giving extensive descriptions of the region. Returning voyagers often impressed the people back home with curiosities like monkeys, parrots and captured natives themselves. Such fascination with the peoples, cultures and resources contributed to a great outpouring of Portuguese chronicles, proto-scientific reports, travel accounts and narrative poetry for many centuries to come.

- Diogo Cão and the Congo -​

When João II succeeded his father in 1481, he determined at the utmost priority to assert Portuguese monopoly in trade and navigation beyond Guinea as a patron for most of the well-known Portuguese explorers. His long and stable reign brought his ships decisively into the south of the equator for the first time. One of the first major explorers involved in João II’s reign was Diogo Cão, the illegitimate son of a fidalgo from the royal household. Cão made two voyages (although much of the details are difficult to reconstruct due to the fragmentary nature of the expedition) and was the first European to explore the Congo River and the coast of what is now the Overseas Province of Angola and the far western part of Cabo.

Portuguese_discoveries_diogo_cao.jpg

Diogo Cão planting a padrão at the mouth of the Congo
His first voyage began in around the midsummer of 1482 to explore the African coast south of the equator. His ship was filled with stone pillars with the emblems of the Order of Christ and the royal Portuguese coat of arms called padrãos, with the plan to erect one in every new place he can discover. He discovered the mouth of the mighty Congo river later that same year and planted a padrão attesting to Portuguese sovereignty, and sailed the same river for a short distance to make contact with the Kingdom of Kongo by sending four men (and receiving four natives in return) before moving on to the coast of Angola to the Cabo da Santa Maria, where he planted a second padrão, seizing some natives before heading back home. Upon his return, João II ennobled Cão to a knight of his household, as well as a pension.

Diogo’s second voyager occured years later from 1484 to 1486 to make more contacts with the Kingdom of Kongo, as well as making inquiries about Prester John and searching for a route from Africa to the Arabian Sea via the Congo River. In addition, he also brought permanent stone padrãos to replace the wooden ones that have been planted in the first journey. Cão sailed 170 kilometres along the Congo to the Ielala Falls, where he wrote on a stone about his presence upon the discovery of the falls. It was in the second voyage that they aforementioned also traveled overland to what is the capital city of Kongo, São Salvador. After his voyage along the Congo, he sailed as less vegetation appeared further south into the Cabo da Cruz, where he planted another stone padrão. He then decided to turn back upon seeing more undesirable terrain, and apparently died during his return voyage in 1486. Upon seeing Cão’s ships returning home, João II decided to move swiftly in order to achieve a breakthrough for Portugal's navigational exceptionalism.

640px-Matadi,_Congo,_pedra_de_Ielala,_Diogo_Cão (1).jpg

Diogo Cão's inscription in the stone in Ielala Falls. It reads, "Aqui chegaram os navios do esclarecido rei D. João II de Portugal - Diogo Cão, Pero Anes, Pero da Costa" (Here arrived the ships of illustrious John II, King of Portugal – Diogo Cão, Pero Anes, Pero da Costa)
 
Good Update!!
There is another place the Portuguese could settle, Newfoundland. There was an expedition in the sixteenth century, if I'm not mistaken, that did not work very well, but with the increase in size of metropolitan territory, Portugal can manage.
 
Good Update!!
There is another place the Portuguese could settle, Newfoundland. There was an expedition in the sixteenth century, if I'm not mistaken, that did not work very well, but with the increase in size of metropolitan territory, Portugal can manage.
Yes with the incorporation of Galicia it could take the lead in both exploring and settling of Newfoundland and gulf of Santa Isabel (iotl St Lawrence)
 
Good Update!!
There is another place the Portuguese could settle, Newfoundland. There was an expedition in the sixteenth century, if I'm not mistaken, that did not work very well, but with the increase in size of metropolitan territory, Portugal can manage.
Yes with the incorporation of Galicia it could take the lead in both exploring and settling of Newfoundland and gulf of Santa Isabel (iotl St Lawrence)
With a stronger position in Europe and more colonists coming in from Galiza, the Portuguese colonization of Newfoundland (and perhaps Labrador and some parts of the Canadian Maritimes) is inevitable. However, I am not sure if maintaining South Africa, Brazil and Canada (before the Portuguese can colonize Australia and New Zealand later) at the same time would be viable for Portugal. I'm taking some cues from Viriato's Portuguese North America TL but I also have another idea.

Maybe once the Lutheran Reformation in Scandinavia kicks in, the Portuguese can take in Catholic dissidents from there like Olav Engelbrektsson and Jón Arason and settle them in Portuguese Newfoundland to assist the Portuguese settlers to the cold climate (as well as due to past connections with Vinland). By the end of the 16th century, Portuguese Newfoundland could be settled by a mix of Galicians, Azoreans and Catholic refugees from Denmark-Norway and Sweden; a Luso-Nordic culture there would be very interesting.

Here are two sources for reading and could make good story.

Pêro da Covilhã, also spelled Pedro de Covilham, or Covilhão, (born c. 1460, Covilhã, Portugal—died after 1526), early Portuguese explorer of Africa, who established relations between Portugal and Ethiopia.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1799506.pdf
Pêro da Covilhã's story is very interesting, given about how he made contact with Ethiopia despite being imprisoned there until his death. Maybe if he was released at some point and reports back to João II that it is truly the country of Prester John, there could be a stronger Luso-Ethiopian alliance and Ethiopia eventually gaining the upper hand in its war against the Adal Sultanate.
 
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With a stronger position in Europe and more colonists coming in from Galiza, the Portuguese colonization of Newfoundland (and perhaps Labrador and some parts of the Canadian Maritimes) is inevitable. However, I am not sure if maintaining South Africa, Brazil and Canada (before the Portuguese can colonize Australia and New Zealand later) at the same time would be viable for Portugal. I'm taking some cues from Viriato's Portuguese North America TL but I also have another idea.

Maybe once the Lutheran Reformation in Scandinavia kicks in, the Portuguese can take in Catholic dissidents from there like Olav Engelbrektsson and Jón Arason and settle them in Portuguese Newfoundland to assist the Portuguese settlers to the cold climate (as well as due to past connections with Vinland). By the end of the 16th century, Portuguese Newfoundland could be settled by a mix of Galicians, Azoreans and Catholic refugees from Denmark-Norway and Sweden; a Luso-Nordic culture there would be very interesting.



Pêro da Covilhã's story is very interesting, given about how he made contact with Ethiopia despite being imprisoned there until his death. Maybe if he was released at some point and reports back to João II that it is truly the country of Prester John, there could be a stronger Luso-Ethiopian alliance and Ethiopia eventually gaining the upper hand in its war against the Adal Sultanate.
While he was held he was still able to communicate to Portuguese king. If my understanding is correct this happened to other Europeans throughout the centuries with various African tribes.

now in regards to colonization we have different settlement patterns. South Africa and Newfoundland be first settler colonies. Started in the late 1480 to early 16th century. Brazil at first is plantation colonies and settler colonies come later in the 17th century. This would be followed by Australia and New Zealand in late 18th century to 19th century.

you do have to right attitude of making Portugal and its colonies to be welcoming places for refugees. Be they fleeing Ottoman Empire, Protestant or just poor from Italian peninsula.
 
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