Se Deus quiser, há-de brilhar! - Uma História do Império Português (Updated 03/18)

What’s going on with the Granada? Will Granada might have best chance to take advantage of weakened Castile by retaking lost territories of Andalucía?

It will still be conquered by Castile-Aragon at some point around the 1490s. I'm thinking that Isabel will take harsher actions against the Jews, blaming them for the loss of Castile's prominence after the war. Portugal will take in more Sephardi refugees, giving it a big boost to its economy.

In addition the rump Spain will still have a colonial empire, but it will be smaller. I'm thinking in terms of getting a successful Klein-Venedig, New France expanding to California, British Patagonia, and perhaps Portugal taking the Philippines thanks to more manpower (or maybe partitioned with Portugal getting all of Luzon north of the Pasig River). You'll just have to wait and see.
 
There is just one thing to take care, the Castilian fertility rate is higher than the portuguese so there is a chance that they will come up on top. There is even a very famous Vic2 Mod (divergences of Darkness) that most of Portugal became culturally spanish even with Portugal leading the union.
 
Chapter 2 - Triumph at Toro
Note: Finally, after going through a minor 2-week writer’s block while trying to visualize my POD, in addition to starting another semester at college, here is the next chapter. I felt very anxious about writing this chapter, given that this is my first TL. Feel free to give any feedback and suggestions.

Despite the transfer of power to the nobility and the prominent Moroccan conquests he had taken in his reign such as the conquest of Tânger, what Afonso V was mostly known for today was the doubling of Portugal’s size. The origin of Portugal’s last expansion in mainland continental Europe was the fight for the Castilian throne, in which he did not eventually receive in the end.

During his reign, Afonso V abandoned the policy of avoiding dynastic interference with its main neighbor to the west, the Kingdom of Castile. The first occurrence happened in 1447 when Isabel, the daughter of João, Constable of Portugal and the son of João I; the second one occurring eight years later in 1455 when Afonso’s sister Joana married the weak King Enrique IV of Castile. This union produced a daughter who would play a key role in the expansion of the kingdom, Joana, known as “a Beltraneja.”

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Joana a Beltraneja
Shortly before his death in 1474, Enrique IV bequeathed his kingdom to Joana and called on Afonso V, who was a widower after the death of his first wife Isabel of Coimbra, to marry her and assume the Castillan throne. However, Joana’s succession was disputed by Enrique’s sister, Isabel and her husband Fernando, the prince of Aragon and heir to the Aragonese throne after his father, Juan II. Isabel’s supporters believed that Joana was the daughter not of Enrique, but of one Castilian nobleman under the name of Beltrán de la Cueva, the 1st Duke of Alburquerque.

However, shortly before the invasion of Castile, Afonso V had a different thing in mind: if Portugal wanted to become one of the greatest European powers for centuries to come, it needs to expand with more land and manpower. Under his humanist upbringing, he remembered the genealogy of his predecessors, dating back to the first count of Portugal, Vímara Peres.

The first County of Portugal existed from the mid-ninth to the mid-eleventh centuries as a vassal of the Kingdom of Astúrias and later the Kingdoms of Galiza and Leão, until Nuno Mendes rebelled for greater autonomy in 1071 and became king of both Galiza and Portugal, and then subsequently defeated by his former liege, Garcia II in the Battle of Pedroso. The second iteration of the county, which succeeded as the modern-day Kingdom of Portugal was founded by Henry of Burgundy in 1096, the son-in-law of King Alfonso VI of León and Castile and the father of the first king of Portugal, Afonso I. Afonso, however, never managed to get back Galiza in order to get support from the crusaders in order to expand Portugal, especially during the Siege of Lisboa in 1147.

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The borders of the second County of Portugal, 1096
Afonso V believed that Portugal would be a very prestigious kingdom in the Iberian Peninsula if he managed to snatch the lands of his former overlords, especially Galiza, which was the main origin of the modern Portuguese state, despite being in the hands of Castile. He then decided to use his claims to Castillan throne as an excuse to push for Portugal’s expansion beyond its current borders, in addition to the justice of his niece’s cause, moved by his honor to uphold the power of the House of Avis and persuaded by Castilian exiles.

With that being said, he entered Castile in May of 1475 as the head of a small army and proceeded to Palencia. From there, he married Joana and then applied for a Papal dispensation to claim the Castilllan throne. Despite widespread opposition from the Castilian nobility and a lack of aggressiveness by Afonso V, the “Miracle of Lusitania” came a year later on March 1 at the town of Toro in Leão.

Both Joana’s and Isabel’s forces have numbered up to 8,000 men, with a third of them being cavalry. On the Portuguese side, Afonso V led the middle, with Prince João leading on the left with harquebusiers and most of the cavalry, and the Archbishop of Toledo, Alfonso Carrillo de Acuña leading the left. On the Castilian side, Fernando led the middle, with the 1st Duke of Alba on his left, and six different divisions under different commanders on his right.

The Battle of Toro, 1476
The battle started when Fernando’s right wing advanced against Prince João, but the elite Portuguese knights were too powerful and soon routed the right flank from the battlefield. In the meantime, the center wing was the focus of the eventual climax of the battle, Fernando closed with Afonso in the center, and two hours into the fighting one of Afonso’s knights stabbed Fernando [1], who eventually died from his injuries a day later. Seeing Fernando lying on the ground, the pandemonium eventually spread to the left wing led by the Duke of Alba and Cardinal Mendoza, with all hope lost. In the end Afonso’s center finally had the advantage, with his son proved victorious on the left side.

Toro proved to be a major political victory for the House of Avis, with more nobles supporting the cause of Joana. In addition, King Louis XI of France, seeing this as an opportunity to weaken the possibility of a potential union of Castile and Aragon signed an alliance treaty with Afonso V on September 23, 1475. Between March and June 1476, French troops captained by Alain I of Albret crossed the border at Fuenterrabía, taking advantage of the situation in Navarre with Castile weakened after the death of Fernando at Toro [2]. On July 1476, Afonso V of Portugal departed towards France to convince Louis XI to involve France to a greater extent. Louis then agreed to this deal, sending a small contingent to assist the Portuguese, especially towards Navarre [3]. In the summer of the same year, a large Castilan fleet of 35 ships led by Pedro de Covides was defeated by small Portuguese fleet near Elmina off the Gulf of Guinea [4], giving the Portuguese an advantage over its position in the Atlantic, with a large amount of gold captured by the Portuguese was enough to strengthen Afonso’s position during the war.

Minor skirmishes against Isabel’s forces persisted until January of 1477, when a war-weary Isabel of Castile sued for peace and met with Afonso V in the town of Mérida in the southern part of the Kingdom of León. The terms of the treaty were [5]:
  • Joana a Beltraneja and Afonso V will waive their rights to the Castilian throne in favour of Queen Isabel and Ferdinand’s successor (REDACTED) [6], who gave up their claims over the throne of Portugal.
  • The Kingdoms of Galicia and León (now Galiza and Leão) are to be transferred to King Afonso V of Portugal
  • The Atlantic territories between both Castile-Aragon and Portugal are to be shared and their respective spheres of influence are delimited, with Portugal having the upper hand.
  • All territories and shores disputed between Portugal and Castile will stay under Portuguese control; Guinea with its gold mines, Madeira, the Açores and Cape Verde. Portugal also won the exclusive right of conquering the Kingdom of Fez.
  • Portugal’s rights over the Canary Islands (As Ilhas Canárias) were recognised while Portugal won the exclusive right of navigating, conquering and trading in all the Atlantic Ocean. Consequently, Portugal attained hegemony in the Atlantic not only for its known territories but also for those discovered in the future.
  • In addition, Castile must also cede the rock of Gibraltar to Portugal, giving the Kingdom a strategic naval choke point with half the world's seaborne trade passing through the strait. It would eventually become one of the Portuguese Navy’s most important bases
  • France and Portugal will guarantee the Kingdom of Navarre
  • Castile was given a war compensation (in the form of Afonso’s gold captured from the Castillans in Guinea)
  • The supporters of Isabel and Fernando who were taken prisoner by the Portuguese to be pardoned.
With the treaty ratified, Portugal is now in a bigger position to dominate as one of the main powers in the Iberian peninsula, leaving a weakened Castile and Aragon, which would eventually lead to the formation of the Kingdom of Spain (without Galicia and León). With his new wife Joana, Afonso V spent the last four years of his reign consolidating on Portugal’s new conquests until his death in 1481. Today, he is referred to his sobriquet “o Lusitano” (The Lusitanian) for doubling the size of Portugal [7].

tTpunJv0aUqEOM4gummjCCX7ap61pRejuWsNt6O0d7h8WDz3wXel15NUoo11wyv3vZ8_zBC_DfdC6Z6DBQ8oVNkhdxJo7RiUgvRvA7P9pcPQzuzthH0kym9RiH99QBi1alKK3QbL

D. Afonso V “o Lusitano” (r. 1438-1481)

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The Kingdom of Portugal, 1481. What is not shown is its insular possessions, plus the Canary Islands.
[1] Here's your POD: Ferdinand of Aragon is fatally wounded at the Battle of Toro, leading to an Avis/La Beltraneja victory in the War of Castilian succession, which became an excuse for Portugal to expand more than to claim the Castilian throne.
[2] OTL they were repelled, and Ferdinand took advantage of the situation to secure his position Navarre. With Ferdinand defeated at Toro, this is the beginning of a domino effect across Castile.
[3] OTL Louis XI refused to intervene further in Castile, as he was focused on defeating his main enemy, Charles the Bold, Duke of Burgundy. But again, the victory at Toro changed all of that.
[4] With Isabel's supporters getting desperate after their defeat at Toro, the battle occurred 2 years earlier than OTL
[5] Basically a reverse Treaty of Alcáçovas with Portugal gaining the upper hand. Thanks to @Lusitania for the suggestion!
[6] I'm thinking either getting a Neapolitan Trastámara or Henry, Duke of Segorbe to succeed Ferdinand. Find out when we'll get to the interlude on Spain.
[7] OTL Afonso V was known as "o Africano" (The African) for his conquests in Morocco.

I wonder how will this "super-Portugal" develop in language and culture, as many of the annexed territories had a leonese and castilian speaking population. Will they be assimilated into portuguese language and culture?
 
I wonder how will this "super-Portugal" develop in language and culture, as many of the annexed territories had a leonese and castilian speaking population. Will they be assimilated into portuguese language and culture?

I'm not the author so your mileage may vary, but I think you might see an inverse of the Galician language; something inherently Castilla-Leonese but with a heavy overlayering/superstrate of Portuguese in things like spelling and certain vocabulary choices (albeit probably less so in pronunciation). I personally think an Iberian language with Portuguese grammar but Andalusian/Canarian Spanish pronunciation (and a "rationalized" vocabulary somewhere in between the two) is Best Iberian Romance, FWIW.

EDIT: @Gintoki Sakata this seems like an interesting premise, the fact that colonial empires in general seem to be getting a jumble-up all around (rather than one or two dominating all but an odd corner here or there) really appeals to me.
 
Since the POD Prevents the conquest of Tondo by Bolkiah, I hope you would write how the conquest was prevented and how Bolkiah is defeated and how Tondo would seek protection in Portugal against its enemies.
 
There is just one thing to take care, the Castilian fertility rate is higher than the portuguese so there is a chance that they will come up on top. There is even a very famous Vic2 Mod (divergences of Darkness) that most of Portugal became culturally spanish even with Portugal leading the union.

That is one challenge that I am trying to issue for this TL. In 1500, The Portuguese Empire's population was around 3 million, while Spain's is around 8.5 million (with 7 million in Castile). I tried looking up sources on the demographic history of Portugal during the late Middle Ages/Renaissance, but I don't seem to find anything relevant on Google.

I wonder how will this "super-Portugal" develop in language and culture, as many of the annexed territories had a leonese and castilian speaking population. Will they be assimilated into portuguese language and culture?

I'm not the author so your mileage may vary, but I think you might see an inverse of the Galician language; something inherently Castilla-Leonese but with a heavy overlayering/superstrate of Portuguese in things like spelling and certain vocabulary choices (albeit probably less so in pronunciation). I personally think an Iberian language with Portuguese grammar but Andalusian/Canarian Spanish pronunciation (and a "rationalized" vocabulary somewhere in between the two) is Best Iberian Romance, FWIW.

EDIT: @Gintoki Sakata this seems like an interesting premise, the fact that colonial empires in general seem to be getting a jumble-up all around (rather than one or two dominating all but an odd corner here or there) really appeals to me.

What I am thinking is that now with Galicia, León and the Canaries in Portuguese hands, the new Avis rulers will De-castilianize and Lusify the Asturleonese language(s) in León, evolving into dialects that resemble the Mirandese language. Galicia and the Canary Islands will be a different story, especially since the former is closely intertwined with Portugal during the Early Middle Ages.

Since the POD Prevents the conquest of Tondo by Bolkiah, I hope you would write how the conquest was prevented and how Bolkiah is defeated and how Tondo would seek protection in Portugal against its enemies.

It's too early to tell, but I'm either deciding if Portugal would take Luzon + Visayas (due to the additional manpower) or what would've become the Philippines is partitioned between Portugal (Northern Luzon), the rump Spain (Southern Luzon + Visayas) and Mindanao is left to its devices (Lanao/Maguindanao/Sulu). Here's a hint: Magellan will play a key role in Portuguese negotiations with Tondo.
 
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That is one challenge that I am trying to issue for this TL. In 1500, The Portuguese Empire's population was around 3 million, while Spain's is around 8.5 million (with 7 million in Castile). I tried looking up sources on the demographic history of Portugal during the late Middle Ages/Renaissance, but I don't seem to find anything relevant on Google.





What I am thinking is that now with Galicia, León and the Canaries in Portuguese hands, the new Avis rulers will De-castilianize and Lusify the Asturleonese language(s) in León, evolving into dialects that resemble the Mirandese language. Galicia and the Canary Islands will be a different story, especially since the former is closely intertwined with Portugal during the Early Middle Ages.



It's too early to tell, but I'm either deciding if Portugal would take Luzon + Visayas (due to the additional manpower) or what would've become the Philippines is partitioned between Portugal (Northern Luzon), the rump Spain (Southern Luzon + Visayas) and Mindanao is left to its devices (Lanao/Maguindanao/Sulu). Here's a hint: Magellan will play a key role in Portuguese negotiations with Tondo.

Have Albuquerque involved in the negotiations as well.
 

Lusitania

Donor
What demographic data you looking for. I probably have portuguese and Spanish historical population figures in my research archive.

The other major issue with Portuguese colonial development was combination of catholic evangelical and colonialism all wrapped into one. The religious component became a driving force and primary goal in so many cases that it impeded trade and colonialism.

Where both Dutch and English colonialism separated trade from religion.
 

Lusitania

Donor
The whole of Luzon would be under Portugal in this scenario since before the sack of Tondo, Luzon was under Majapahit influence.

@Gintoki Sakata
The whole thing is that without Canaries islands exploring will become different for the Castilians and no guarantee that Grenada captured thus freeing the Castilians from their obsession in reconquista. We might not see union of Castile and Aragon. Therefore no Columbus, no Spain and different players in colonization.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Chapter 2 - Triumph at Toro
Note: Finally, after going through a minor 2-week writer’s block while trying to visualize my POD, in addition to starting another semester at college, here is the next chapter. I felt very anxious about writing this chapter, given that this is my first TL. Feel free to give any feedback and suggestions.

Despite the transfer of power to the nobility and the prominent Moroccan conquests he had taken in his reign such as the conquest of Tânger, what Afonso V was mostly known for today was the doubling of Portugal’s size. The origin of Portugal’s last expansion in mainland continental Europe was the fight for the Castilian throne, in which he did not eventually receive in the end.

During his reign, Afonso V abandoned the policy of avoiding dynastic interference with its main neighbor to the west, the Kingdom of Castile. The first occurrence happened in 1447 when Isabel, the daughter of João, Constable of Portugal and the son of João I; the second one occurring eight years later in 1455 when Afonso’s sister Joana married the weak King Enrique IV of Castile. This union produced a daughter who would play a key role in the expansion of the kingdom, Joana, known as “a Beltraneja.”

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Joana a Beltraneja
Shortly before his death in 1474, Enrique IV bequeathed his kingdom to Joana and called on Afonso V, who was a widower after the death of his first wife Isabel of Coimbra, to marry her and assume the Castillan throne. However, Joana’s succession was disputed by Enrique’s sister, Isabel and her husband Fernando, the prince of Aragon and heir to the Aragonese throne after his father, Juan II. Isabel’s supporters believed that Joana was the daughter not of Enrique, but of one Castilian nobleman under the name of Beltrán de la Cueva, the 1st Duke of Alburquerque.

However, shortly before the invasion of Castile, Afonso V had a different thing in mind: if Portugal wanted to become one of the greatest European powers for centuries to come, it needs to expand with more land and manpower. Under his humanist upbringing, he remembered the genealogy of his predecessors, dating back to the first count of Portugal, Vímara Peres.

The first County of Portugal existed from the mid-ninth to the mid-eleventh centuries as a vassal of the Kingdom of Astúrias and later the Kingdoms of Galiza and Leão, until Nuno Mendes rebelled for greater autonomy in 1071 and became king of both Galiza and Portugal, and then subsequently defeated by his former liege, Garcia II in the Battle of Pedroso. The second iteration of the county, which succeeded as the modern-day Kingdom of Portugal was founded by Henry of Burgundy in 1096, the son-in-law of King Alfonso VI of León and Castile and the father of the first king of Portugal, Afonso I. Afonso, however, never managed to get back Galiza in order to get support from the crusaders in order to expand Portugal, especially during the Siege of Lisboa in 1147.

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The borders of the second County of Portugal, 1096
Afonso V believed that Portugal would be a very prestigious kingdom in the Iberian Peninsula if he managed to snatch the lands of his former overlords, especially Galiza, which was the main origin of the modern Portuguese state, despite being in the hands of Castile. He then decided to use his claims to Castillan throne as an excuse to push for Portugal’s expansion beyond its current borders, in addition to the justice of his niece’s cause, moved by his honor to uphold the power of the House of Avis and persuaded by Castilian exiles.

With that being said, he entered Castile in May of 1475 as the head of a small army and proceeded to Palencia. From there, he married Joana and then applied for a Papal dispensation to claim the Castilllan throne. Despite widespread opposition from the Castilian nobility and a lack of aggressiveness by Afonso V, the “Miracle of Lusitania” came a year later on March 1 at the town of Toro in Leão.

Both Joana’s and Isabel’s forces have numbered up to 8,000 men, with a third of them being cavalry. On the Portuguese side, Afonso V led the middle, with Prince João leading on the left with harquebusiers and most of the cavalry, and the Archbishop of Toledo, Alfonso Carrillo de Acuña leading the left. On the Castilian side, Fernando led the middle, with the 1st Duke of Alba on his left, and six different divisions under different commanders on his right.

The Battle of Toro, 1476
The battle started when Fernando’s right wing advanced against Prince João, but the elite Portuguese knights were too powerful and soon routed the right flank from the battlefield. In the meantime, the center wing was the focus of the eventual climax of the battle, Fernando closed with Afonso in the center, and two hours into the fighting one of Afonso’s knights stabbed Fernando [1], who eventually died from his injuries a day later. Seeing Fernando lying on the ground, the pandemonium eventually spread to the left wing led by the Duke of Alba and Cardinal Mendoza, with all hope lost. In the end Afonso’s center finally had the advantage, with his son proved victorious on the left side.

Toro proved to be a major political victory for the House of Avis, with more nobles supporting the cause of Joana. In addition, King Louis XI of France, seeing this as an opportunity to weaken the possibility of a potential union of Castile and Aragon signed an alliance treaty with Afonso V on September 23, 1475. Between March and June 1476, French troops captained by Alain I of Albret crossed the border at Fuenterrabía, taking advantage of the situation in Navarre with Castile weakened after the death of Fernando at Toro [2]. On July 1476, Afonso V of Portugal departed towards France to convince Louis XI to involve France to a greater extent. Louis then agreed to this deal, sending a small contingent to assist the Portuguese, especially towards Navarre [3]. In the summer of the same year, a large Castilan fleet of 35 ships led by Pedro de Covides was defeated by small Portuguese fleet near Elmina off the Gulf of Guinea [4], giving the Portuguese an advantage over its position in the Atlantic, with a large amount of gold captured by the Portuguese was enough to strengthen Afonso’s position during the war.

Minor skirmishes against Isabel’s forces persisted until January of 1477, when a war-weary Isabel of Castile sued for peace and met with Afonso V in the town of Mérida in the southern part of the Kingdom of León. The terms of the treaty were [5]:
  • Joana a Beltraneja and Afonso V will waive their rights to the Castilian throne in favour of Queen Isabel and Ferdinand’s successor (REDACTED) [6], who gave up their claims over the throne of Portugal.
  • The Kingdoms of Galicia and León (now Galiza and Leão) are to be transferred to King Afonso V of Portugal
  • The Atlantic territories between both Castile-Aragon and Portugal are to be shared and their respective spheres of influence are delimited, with Portugal having the upper hand.
  • All territories and shores disputed between Portugal and Castile will stay under Portuguese control; Guinea with its gold mines, Madeira, the Açores and Cape Verde. Portugal also won the exclusive right of conquering the Kingdom of Fez.
  • Portugal’s rights over the Canary Islands (As Ilhas Canárias) were recognised while Portugal won the exclusive right of navigating, conquering and trading in all the Atlantic Ocean. Consequently, Portugal attained hegemony in the Atlantic not only for its known territories but also for those discovered in the future.
  • In addition, Castile must also cede the rock of Gibraltar to Portugal, giving the Kingdom a strategic naval choke point with half the world's seaborne trade passing through the strait. It would eventually become one of the Portuguese Navy’s most important bases
  • France and Portugal will guarantee the Kingdom of Navarre
  • Castile was given a war compensation (in the form of Afonso’s gold captured from the Castillans in Guinea)
  • The supporters of Isabel and Fernando who were taken prisoner by the Portuguese to be pardoned.
With the treaty ratified, Portugal is now in a bigger position to dominate as one of the main powers in the Iberian peninsula, leaving a weakened Castile and Aragon, which would eventually lead to the formation of the Kingdom of Spain (without Galicia and León). With his new wife Joana, Afonso V spent the last four years of his reign consolidating on Portugal’s new conquests until his death in 1481. Today, he is referred to his sobriquet “o Lusitano” (The Lusitanian) for doubling the size of Portugal [7].

tTpunJv0aUqEOM4gummjCCX7ap61pRejuWsNt6O0d7h8WDz3wXel15NUoo11wyv3vZ8_zBC_DfdC6Z6DBQ8oVNkhdxJo7RiUgvRvA7P9pcPQzuzthH0kym9RiH99QBi1alKK3QbL

D. Afonso V “o Lusitano” (r. 1438-1481)

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The Kingdom of Portugal, 1481. What is not shown is its insular possessions, plus the Canary Islands.
[1] Here's your POD: Ferdinand of Aragon is fatally wounded at the Battle of Toro, leading to an Avis/La Beltraneja victory in the War of Castilian succession, which became an excuse for Portugal to expand more than to claim the Castilian throne.
[2] OTL they were repelled, and Ferdinand took advantage of the situation to secure his position Navarre. With Ferdinand defeated at Toro, this is the beginning of a domino effect across Castile.
[3] OTL Louis XI refused to intervene further in Castile, as he was focused on defeating his main enemy, Charles the Bold, Duke of Burgundy. But again, the victory at Toro changed all of that.
[4] With Isabel's supporters getting desperate after their defeat at Toro, the battle occurred 2 years earlier than OTL
[5] Basically a reverse Treaty of Alcáçovas with Portugal gaining the upper hand. Thanks to @Lusitania for the suggestion!
[6] I'm thinking either getting a Neapolitan Trastámara or Henry, Duke of Segorbe to succeed Ferdinand. Find out when we'll get to the interlude on Spain.
[7] OTL Afonso V was known as "o Africano" (The African) for his conquests in Morocco.
We now have the kingdom Portugal, Galicia, Leão, Algarve and Tangier.


Edit: was already kingdom of Portugal and Algarve.
 
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Interesting start.

Makes one wonder why Afonso didn't go all-in and just take over Castille. Afraid that France or Aragon were going to do something about it?

Also, this will make Spain fight Portugal even more TTL. The whole "Imperator Totus Hispaniae" thing will look like even more bullshit, right now.

I wonder if TTL Spain ins't going to just direct its energies to the Med instead, say, try and conquer Italy.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Interesting start.

Makes one wonder why Afonso didn't go all-in and just take over Castille. Afraid that France or Aragon were going to do something about it?

Also, this will make Spain fight Portugal even more TTL. The whole "Imperator Totus Hispaniae" thing will look like even more bullshit, right now.

I wonder if TTL Spain ins't going to just direct its energies to the Med instead, say, try and conquer Italy.
The interesting part is that there is no Spain right now. The outcome of war means Castile and Aragon stay independent. Navarra is independent. Castile only outlet for expansion is Grenada which it must do with 1/3 of the resources. Iotl it had all of Castile and Aragon at its disposal to conquer Granada.

How will things play out? Will Granada request assistance from the Ottoman Empire? When will Castile move against Granada? And how long of will it take to conquer if it can?

What would portugal and Aragon do if Ottoman Empire got involved in Grenada ?
 
The interesting part is that there is no Spain right now. The outcome of war means Castile and Aragon stay independent. Navarra is independent. Castile only outlet for expansion is Grenada which it must do with 1/3 of the resources. Iotl it had all of Castile and Aragon at its disposal to conquer Granada.

How will things play out? Will Granada request assistance from the Ottoman Empire? When will Castile move against Granada? And how long of will it take to conquer if it can?

What would portugal and Aragon do if Ottoman Empire got involved in Grenada ?
Man, a Granadan colonization of the Americas would be interesting to see (although we do have TL's on that, notably A House Of Lamps).
 

Lusitania

Donor
Man, a Granadan colonization of the Americas would be interesting to see (although we do have TL's on that, notably A House Of Lamps).
The Portuguese control of the med with both Ceuta and Gibraltar gives it ability to control aces in and out of the Mediterranean, so a Granada colonization be a no-go. But I could see a Granada vassal to Portugal.

Here is my idea.

Castile invades Granada 1500 tries to siege it for 2 years but cannot breach city. Meanwhile Aragon stays independent and starts its own reconquista with attacks on Tunis capturing several coastal cities from 1490-1505. Granada convinces Ottoman Empire to intervene. Who angry at Aragon attack on Tunis, Portuguese attack on Fez and Castile attack on Grenada decides to intervene on behalf of Muslims.

They attack Aragon in North Africa and land in Sicily, Fez with support from Ottoman attacks Portugal in Tangier.

Pope calls for new crusade, Portugal with its new wealth of gold and ivory from west Africa and spices from India brings to North Africa 50,000 mercenary crusaders. Battle of Ksar-el-Kebir is 70,000 Portuguese/mercenaries vs 40,000 Muslims. Portuguese defeat and kill Abu Abdellah al-Shaykh Muhammad ben Yehya and most of his court and high officials with less than 10,000 able to escape. The Portuguese knowing they cannot conquer the whole Morocco sign a peace treaty with remaining Muslim leaders. They annex both Atlantic coast northern coast while Fez made a vassal. Marrakech to south stays independent. The Portuguese then march east and defeat Algiers and capture Oujda. Meanwhile at same time to east Oran and several other coastal cities are captured by varius christian armies. The Portuguese navy along with French and Aragon defeat Ottoman Empire navy off coast of Sicily and strand 100,000 Ottoman Empire soldiers on island.

Meanwhile Castile army in Granada forced to retreat due to disease at sight of tens of Ottoman ships approaching. The ships arrive at city and People of Granada come out to great the Ottoman soldiers but in reality they portuguese and Aragonese soldiers dressed as Ottoman soldiers. The soldiers from first ships able to capture doors and other troops from other ships pour in and city falls.

Peace treaty in 1510 is a huge mess. Castile wants Granada but Portuguese and Aragon don’t want to give it to them because they not capture it. Castile ready for war if with Aragon or Portugal if either take it. A compromise is reached with help from France and England:
  • Granada become vassal of Portugal and the king of Granada must convert to Catholicism open country to Christian missionaries.
  • Castile gets several North African cities including Oran.
  • Aragon gets all of Tunisia and Constantine.
  • Portugal gets all oujdo and all lands west of it. Fez made a vassal of Portugal. Portugal also controls all Atlantic coast to Mazagao.
  • Kingdom of a Marrakech stays independent. They big problem next for Portuguese.
  • Ottoman Empire pays large amount of $$$ to get its army out of Sicily that is starving and dying of disease. Less 50,000 are saved. Ottoman Empire solidly their control of Libya.
 
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What demographic data you looking for. I probably have portuguese and Spanish historical population figures in my research archive.

The other major issue with Portuguese colonial development was combination of catholic evangelical and colonialism all wrapped into one. The religious component became a driving force and primary goal in so many cases that it impeded trade and colonialism.

Where both Dutch and English colonialism separated trade from religion.

I am looking at the population growth for Portugal, Galicia and Leon between 1450 and 1600. For my TL Catholic evangelization will still be important for this TL, but a bit less, putting more focus in Africa and Asia (There will be a stronger Catholic presence in China and Japan since the Chinese Rites Controversy will be butterflied TTL), in addition to greater crown control over the fidalgos to keep them from doing stupid decisions, especially when we get to Asia soon.
The whole thing is that without Canaries islands exploring will become different for the Castilians and no guarantee that Grenada captured thus freeing the Castilians from their obsession in reconquista. We might not see union of Castile and Aragon. Therefore no Columbus, no Spain and different players in colonization.

I might have to revamp my last chapter a bit, since I changed my mind and feel like Spain isn't going to be formed in this case. Expect a footnote coming shortly.

Actually, Aragon after the death Ferdonand will be contested between Villena/Segorbe and Francis Phoebus of Navarre.

Just wondering, would Ferdinand I of Naples be also a good candidate to succeed Ferdinand too?

The Portuguese control of the med with both Ceuta and Gibraltar gives it ability to control aces in and out of the Mediterranean, so a Granada colonization be a no-go. But I could see a Granada vassal to Portugal.

Here is my idea.

Castile invades Granada 1500 tries to siege it for 2 years but cannot breach city. Meanwhile Aragon stays independent and starts its own reconquista with attacks on Tunis capturing several coastal cities from 1490-1505. Granada convinces Ottoman Empire to intervene. Who angry at Aragon attack on Tunis, Portuguese attack on Fez and Castile attack on Grenada decides to intervene on behalf of Muslims.

They attack Aragon in North Africa and land in Sicily, Fez with support from Ottoman attacks Portugal in Tangier.

Pope calls for new crusade, Portugal with its new wealth of gold and ivory from west Africa and spices from India brings to North Africa 50,000 mercenary crusaders. Battle of Ksar-el-Kebir is 70,000 Portuguese/mercenaries vs 40,000 Muslims. Portuguese defeat and kill Abu Abdellah al-Shaykh Muhammad ben Yehya and most of his court and high officials with less than 10,000 able to escape. The Portuguese knowing they cannot conquer the whole Morocco sign a peace treaty with remaining Muslim leaders. They annex both Atlantic coast northern coast while Fez made a vassal. Marrakech to south stays independent. The Portuguese then march east and defeat Algiers and capture Oujda. Meanwhile at same time to east Oran and several other coastal cities are captured by varius christian armies. The Portuguese navy along with French and Aragon defeat Ottoman Empire navy off coast of Sicily and strand 100,000 Ottoman Empire soldiers on island.

Meanwhile Castile army in Granada forced to retreat due to disease at sight of tens of Ottoman ships approaching. The ships arrive at city and People of Granada come out to great the Ottoman soldiers but in reality they portuguese and Aragonese soldiers dressed as Ottoman soldiers. The soldiers from first ships able to capture doors and other troops from other ships pour in and city falls.

Peace treaty in 1510 is a huge mess. Castile wants Granada but Portuguese and Aragon don’t want to give it to them because they not capture it. Castile ready for war if with Aragon or Portugal if either take it. A compromise is reached with help from France and England:
  • Granada become vassal of Portugal and the king of Granada must convert to Catholicism open country to Christian missionaries.
  • Castile gets several North African cities including Oran.
  • Aragon gets all of Tunisia and Constantine.
  • Portugal gets all oujdo and all lands west of it. Fez made a vassal of Portugal. Portugal also controls all Atlantic coast to Mazagao.
  • Kingdom of a Marrakech stays independent. They big problem next for Portuguese.
  • Ottoman Empire pays large amount of $$$ to get its army out of Sicily that is starving and dying of disease. Less 50,000 are saved. Ottoman Empire solidly their control of Libya.

The irony of a reverse Alcácer Quibir that kills the Moroccan sultan. I really liked your idea for the 1500 war and a Morisco Kingdom of Granada, what do you think about this map I made about the hypothetical 1510 treaty? This might look good but I don't want Portugal to expand beyond the Moroccan enclaves.

1500Crusade.png
 

Lusitania

Donor
I am looking at the population growth for Portugal, Galicia and Leon between 1450 and 1600. For my TL Catholic evangelization will still be important for this TL, but a bit less, putting more focus in Africa and Asia (There will be a stronger Catholic presence in China and Japan since the Chinese Rites Controversy will be butterflied TTL), in addition to greater crown control over the fidalgos to keep them from doing stupid decisions, especially when we get to Asia soon.


I might have to revamp my last chapter a bit, since I changed my mind and feel like Spain isn't going to be formed in this case. Expect a footnote coming shortly.



Just wondering, would Ferdinand I of Naples be also a good candidate to succeed Ferdinand too?



The irony of a reverse Alcácer Quibir that kills the Moroccan sultan. I really liked your idea for the 1500 war and a Morisco Kingdom of Granada, what do you think about this map I made about the hypothetical 1510 treaty? This might look good but I don't want Portugal to expand beyond the Moroccan enclaves.

View attachment 489416

I will look up one of my historical population spreadsheet. See what I can find.

Map
OK Portugal Africa good
Castile Africa Good
Aragon - only the coast at this time like Castile and Portugal.
 
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