Russian Manchuria: geopolitical consequences

[Lampiao]

Let's say that Russia, around the 1850's-70's, grabs the whole Manchuria from the Qing, also guaranteeing Port-Arthur. Considering that the area was very lightly populated back then and is able to sustain a big population with its natural resources - today Chinese Manchuria has more than 100 million inhabitants - I assume that the region will be filled with Russian, Ukrainian, etc. settlers at some point (when? Late 19th century or 20th century?).

With that being said, let's discuss how this Russian Manchuria will change international politics in East Asia and the internal balance of power inside Russia.

 

[alexmilman]

Let's say that Russia, around the 1850's-70's, grabs the whole Manchuria from the Qing, also guaranteeing Port-Arthur. Considering that the area was very lightly populated back then and is able to sustain a big population with its natural resources - today Chinese Manchuria has more than 100 million inhabitants - I assume that the region will be filled with Russian, Ukrainian, etc. settlers at some point (when? Late 19th century or 20th century?).

With that being said, let's discuss how this Russian Manchuria will change international politics in East Asia and the internal balance of power inside Russia.

There was no practical way for Russia of that period to provide a significant migration into the whole Manchuria.

In the 1850s by the Treaty of Aigun Russia scrapped the old border and established the new one on Amur and in 1860 it added a new chunk of a territory but, while these additions allowed to found the new important cities including Vladivostok, “Russian” population remained relatively small and only construction of Trans Siberian RR allowed to change the picture (communication by Amur River was better than earlier land route but it was unreliable. Not sure that there was a realistic way to provide a considerable migration capable of changing demographics in the whole Manchuria.

Now, as far as Port Arthur is involved, actually it was Port Arthur (naval base) and Dalnii (merchant port). Both had been a part of the “warm water port” mantra and both proved to be lousy ports. In Dalnii building of a wave breaker turned it into a freezing port and, after all expenses, it could not compete with the regional Chinese ports. PA, besides the fact that it required extensive and expensive fortifications (not finished by 1904) was a lousy port. Most of the bay space was too shallow for the capital ships so they were confined in a tiny part of it and could get out only in a high tide and one by one. Entry into the bay was extremely narrow creating additional problems with getting in and out and could be easily blocked so that at the night of Japanese attack most of the Russian battleships had been held outside the inner port area thus becoming easy victims of the Japanese destroyers.

Now, as far as the whole warm water port mantra is involved, the ice issue could be solved more cheaply just by having the icebreakers (which Russia already had) and using Vladivostok as the main port. Anyway, even after the RJW Russia did not have a serious trade on the Pacific so the usefulness of having something bigger than what was needed for the coastal defenses is debatable, especially taking into an account that even in the early XX the industrial facilities needed for the effective repair of the big ships had been lacking.

 

[Lampiao]

There was no practical way for Russia of that period to provide a significant migration into the whole Manchuria.

In the 1850s by the Treaty of Aigun Russia scrapped the old border and established the new one on Amur and in 1860 it added a new chunk of a territory but, while these additions allowed to found the new important cities including Vladivostok, “Russian” population remained relatively small and only construction of Trans Siberian RR allowed to change the picture (communication by Amur River was better than earlier land route but it was unreliable. Not sure that there was a realistic way to provide a considerable migration capable of changing demographics in the whole Manchuria.

I won't argue that Russia could be able to change the demographics of the region in order to grab more of Manchuria before the Trans Siberian Railway. It certainly couldn't. However, if Russia somehow manages to get the whole Manchuria, militarily or diplomatically, once the railroad is finished, the region will be inevitably filled with settlers. The region was still very lightly populated, had good fertile land and plenty of natural resources. In addition, these new fertile territories available might also make an earlier Trans Siberian Railway economically viable and/or politically interesting.

Also, I won't argue about which port is better, Port-Arthur or Vladivostok. Russia might still chose the latter as their main Pacific base. Still, the control of both and the effective settlement of the hinterland between both ports will only work in favour of Russia, as the Tsushima Strait would be less of a nuisance during a possible war against Japan.

 

[BellaGerant]

I won't argue that Russia could be able to change the demographics of the region in order to grab more of Manchuria before the Trans Siberian Railway. It certainly couldn't. However, if Russia somehow manages to get the whole Manchuria, militarily or diplomatically, once the railroad is finished, the region will be inevitably filled with settlers. The region was still very lightly populated, had good fertile land and plenty of natural resources. In addition, these new fertile territories available might also make an earlier Trans Siberian Railway economically viable and/or politically interesting.

The real question would be less of if Russia can settle it (since they can't until the railroads get set up to allow for it) and more of if Han settlement is affected in a significant way. Even when Manchuria was off limits to the Han Chinese (and also the Koreans, to a lesser extent), there was a significant amount of illegal squatting, imperial edicts on settlement (the Qianlong Emperor allowed drought-affected Han farmers to move east of Shanhai Pass), and immigration due to the regions you listed and the burgeoning Han population. It was already majority Han by the 1850s, as a result. Thus, the question is if Russia can actually prevent Han immigration into the region before they can actually start settling it.

 

[Pelranius]

That whole Inner Manchuria already had at least ten million or so by 1850 (since you're including the Liaoning Peninsula)

 

[Lampiao]

The real question would be less of if Russia can settle it (since they can't until the railroads get set up to allow for it) and more of if Han settlement is affected in a significant way. Even when Manchuria was off limits to the Han Chinese (and also the Koreans, to a lesser extent), there was a significant amount of illegal squatting, imperial edicts on settlement (the Qianlong Emperor allowed drought-affected Han farmers to move east of Shanhai Pass), and immigration due to the regions you listed and the burgeoning Han population. It was already majority Han by the 1850s, as a result. Thus, the question is if Russia can actually prevent Han immigration into the region before they can actually start settling it.

Wikipedia says that, by 1850, 5 million people lived in Manchuria (ok, not the best source, I couldn't find anything else online, perhaps Alex knows more about it). It's more than possible that the Russian military would try to somehow limit Chinese migration - after all, Chinese are virtually inexistent in Russian Outer Manchuria.

If we manage to, let's say, by 1900, get at least half of the population and economic growth of Chinese Manchuria by having a 1/3 to 1/2 of of local population composed of Slavs, we would have a ~20 million people Russian province on the other side of the empire (ie. roughly the population of Ukraine). Russian Manchuria would certainly be much more important than Central Asia or any other area of the empire outside the European core.

 

[Lampiao]

That whole Inner Manchuria already had at least ten million or so by 1850 (since you're including the Liaoning Peninsula)

Ok, so I assume that the Liaoning Peninsula has around 5 million people in 1850? Considering that Russia had roughly 130 million people by 1890's and, during the Stolypin Reforms, around 10 million Russians settled in much less fertile Siberia, I guess that we can easily achieve a scenario where Russians make up at least one third of the Manchurian population by the early 1900's if the Russians manage to build the Trans Siberian earlier.

 

[Jürgen]

Wikipedia says that, by 1850, 5 million people lived in Manchuria (ok, not the best source, I couldn't find anything else online, perhaps Alex knows more about it). It's more than possible that the Russian military would try to somehow limit Chinese migration - after all, Chinese are virtually inexistent in Russian Outer Manchuria.

If we manage to, let's say, by 1900, get at least half of the population and economic growth of Chinese Manchuria by having a 1/3 to 1/2 of of local population composed of Slavs, we would have a ~20 million people Russian province on the other side of the empire (ie. roughly the population of Ukraine). Russian Manchuria would certainly be much more important than Central Asia or any other area of the empire outside the European core.

Pre-Siberian trail roads it would be far easier to recruit German immigrant coming there by ship from Bremen and Hamburg, and Germans in the Russian Far East would by default be loyal to the Russian state. So we could have a early wave of a Germans followed by waves of Russians and other Slavs after the trans-Siberian railroad have been build. A mix of ethnicities also favor Russia as the Russian languages would be Lingua Franca among the different population there, and whether the local Manchus, Koreans and Hans are converted to Orthodoxy or other version of a Christianity doesn’t really make a major different in the greater picture, as both would result in the population becoming disconnected from their traditional culture.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Pre-Siberian trail roads it would be far easier to recruit German immigrant coming there by ship from Bremen and Hamburg, and Germans in the Russian Far East would by default be loyal to the Russian state. So we could have a early wave of a Germans followed by waves of Russians and other Slavs after the trans-Siberian railroad have been build. A mix of ethnicities also favor Russia as the Russian languages would be Lingua Franca among the different population there, and whether the local Manchus, Koreans and Hans are converted to Orthodoxy or other version of a Christianity doesn’t really make a major different in the greater picture, as both would result in the population becoming disconnected from their traditional culture.

Supposing the Russians can convert Manchuria to Orthodoxy is one thing, but Russia actually managing to convert Manchuria without serious unrest is another. I doubt the Russians could consolidate their hold over any part of China south of Harbin.

 

[Lampiao]

Supposing the Russians can convert Manchuria to Orthodoxy is one thing, but Russia actually managing to convert Manchuria without serious unrest is another. I doubt the Russians could consolidate their hold over any part of China south of Harbin.

They don't actually need to convert anyone. They just need to get the territory diplomatically or militarily (the difficult part IMHO). The military will naturally limit Chinese migration and Russian people will naturally flock into a very fertile territory once transportation is available. By the way, Port Arthur was Russian and is south of Harbin.

 

[alexmilman]

The real question would be less of if Russia can settle it (since they can't until the railroads get set up to allow for it) and more of if Han settlement is affected in a significant way. Even when Manchuria was off limits to the Han Chinese (and also the Koreans, to a lesser extent), there was a significant amount of illegal squatting, imperial edicts on settlement (the Qianlong Emperor allowed drought-affected Han farmers to move east of Shanhai Pass), and immigration due to the regions you listed and the burgeoning Han population. It was already majority Han by the 1850s, as a result. Thus, the question is if Russia can actually prevent Han immigration into the region before they can actually start settling it.

At the time when Eastern-China RR had been built (1897 - 1903) as a de facto branch of the Trans Siberian RR (see the map below) it was too late even if Witte considered it as a tool for the potential peaceful acquisition of Manchuria: there were too many Chinese, mostly thanks to the railroad (by 1908 regional population grew from 8.5M to 15.8M due to migration from China). Russia simply could not beat that rate of migration.

On a purely political level, during the Boxer Rebellion Russia occupied North-Eastern provinces of China but the further steps did not happen due to the resistance of the former partners by anti-Boxer coalition. However, if we assume that everything worked out just fine and beyond the formal Russian goals (which amounted to getting a preferential status in the region) and there is no RJW, then Russian Empire ends up with an interesting demographic situation: in OTL excess of the population in Manchuria resulted in the Chinese migration (seasonal and permanent) into the Russian Pacific region because shortage of the “Russian” population was an obstacle to the regional development. In OP scenario Russia is getting between 8 and 15M Chinese subjects with a potential problem of controlling the new border because, taking into an account political situation in China, a continued flow of the immigrants can be expected. However, even if it stops at, say 10M, Russian Empire is getting a big minority group which is not easily mixing and this may (or may not) create problems in a future.

Now, taking into an account that acquisition of the region could happen only with an agreement of the other major powers, the OP scenario (with a different date) implies seriously different Russian-British and/or Russian-Japanese relations (probably Russian-American as well). Say, the British government (and public opinion) recognizes that Russian expansion in a region to which the GB can’t realistically get anyway is less dangerous to the British interests that a fast growth of the Japanese military and naval power while Japan makes an agreement with Russia by which it is getting Korea and some pieces of China including Port Arthur. Or pro-Russian GB does not provide Japan with the credits and technical help needed for war while the US remains neutral to those events.

Not sure if this would not require an intensive interference of the ASBs.

 

[Lampiao]

Now, taking into an account that acquisition of the region could happen only with an agreement of the other major powers, the OP scenario (with a different date) implies seriously different Russian-British and/or Russian-Japanese relations (probably Russian-American as well). Say, the British government (and public opinion) recognizes that Russian expansion in a region to which the GB can’t realistically get anyway is less dangerous to the British interests that a fast growth of the Japanese military and naval power while Japan makes an agreement with Russia by which it is getting Korea and some pieces of China including Port Arthur. Or pro-Russian GB does not provide Japan with the credits and technical help needed for war while the US remains neutral to those events.

With a POD in the 1850's-60's we can pretty much exclude Japan from the game at first. Let's say that the British have some trouble during the Second Opium War (a longer Indian Mutiny?) and the Russians join them by occupying Manchuria and sacking Beijing. if Russia can get the upper hand in the war they might as well push for an even more favorable land grap and the British can counterbalance it by demanding the control of other Chinese ports. Eventually, if Russia gets Manchuria, the treaty might also garantee the Korean independence from China.

In the long run, Korea will become the point of contention of the region between the Great Powers and Meiji Japan will have a hard time expanding itself. Russia will have to deal with a big Chinese minority, which I don't think would be a big deal during the 19th century, and, when Chinese nationalism grows stronger in the 20th century, the region will already have a huge non-Chinese population.

 

[Lampiao]

What's most interesting in this scenario is how this conquest can change the geographic balance of power within Russia. The Asian part of the empire wouldn't be simply a huge appendix of European Russia - we will have a partially Russified province the size of Ukraine on the Chinese border. How can that affect Russia and the world?

 

[Pelranius]

With a POD in the 1850's-60's we can pretty much exclude Japan from the game at first. Let's say that the British have some trouble during the Second Opium War (a longer Indian Mutiny?) and the Russians join them by occupying Manchuria and sacking Beijing. if Russia can get the upper hand in the war they might as well push for an even more favorable land grap and the British can counterbalance it by demanding the control of other Chinese ports. Eventually, if Russia gets Manchuria, the treaty might also garantee the Korean independence from China.

In the long run, Korea will become the point of contention of the region between the Great Powers and Meiji Japan will have a hard time expanding itself. Russia will have to deal with a big Chinese minority, which I don't think would be a big deal during the 19th century, and, when Chinese nationalism grows stronger in the 20th century, the region will already have a huge non-Chinese population.

And how does that Russian population compare to the Chinese majority of Manchuria?

 

[MorningDew]

So the thing is, Russian control over ALL of Manchuria means they can March into Beijing whenever they want, and essentially de facto control china. Nobody except Russia will be okay with that.

On the demographic front, even if Russia SOMEHOW gets China to cede all of it in a treaty (there's simply no possible way that they can physically take it until the transiberian is built, the distance is simply too far and the Chinese have much more numbers and are MUCH closer), there is nothing stopping China from simply flooding it with han, as they did otl. Plus the Russians really only wanted a good port and had already scouted the site of Vladivostok. A pity that nakhodka wasn't found till later really.

 

[The Gunslinger]

I think Russia's best bet is to leave the southern-most province as that had the largest number of Han, the others were very thinly settled and had a lot of land that could be colonized easily. They'd be better off leaving Liaoning rather than risk having the whole region settled with migrants from that province.

This is a huge boon for Russia as Russian Manchuria was pretty worthless as far as colonizing went and didn't have a lot of decent land to build a proper settler base. Heilongjiang and Jilin would have made the Transsiberian RR an actual worthwhile venture and maybe even generated enough income to justify itself. And with a proper base for logistics and settlement I think Russia would be inclined to push harder everywhere along the Chinese border... especially once the railway gets done. More of the Ili Valley, Mongolia both might become targets for Russian aquistion.

Not good for the Qing though. It might be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

I also strongly suspect that any move against China makes Britain do equal move against China somewhere else.

 

[Lampiao]

And how does that Russian population compare to the Chinese majority of Manchuria?

If we get an early enough Trans Siberian RR, I think it's reasonable to say that Europeans could make up from a third to a half of the population by the beginning of the century (1910's-20's).

So the thing is, Russian control over ALL of Manchuria means they can March into Beijing whenever they want, and essentially de facto control china. Nobody except Russia will be okay with that.

If OTL is an example for what would happen, nobody really cares about China's sovereignty. The Japanese carved up a puppet state in the region in a much more complex diplomatic situation. It's safe to assume that, during the Opium Wars, the Great Powers hate Chinese central government and will do anything to open China to foreign trade. This situation is hardly comparable with the Ottoman Question.

On the demographic front, even if Russia SOMEHOW gets China to cede all of it in a treaty (there's simply no possible way that they can physically take it until the transiberian is built, the distance is simply too far and the Chinese have much more numbers and are MUCH closer), there is nothing stopping China from simply flooding it with han, as they did otl.

In OTL, Russia only got Outer Manchuria because they menaced the Chinese with an invasion during the Second Opium War. If they actually invade China and get the upper hand in the war, the British can only face Russian Manchuria as a fait accompli if they actually want a piece of China. Also, I don't think that Russia will halt all migration and I think that the extremely fragile Chinese central government wouldn't antagonize the Russians.

Plus the Russians really only wanted a good port and had already scouted the site of Vladivostok. A pity that nakhodka wasn't found till later really.

Except that it's not true. In OTL Russian foreign policy pushed for a stronger Russian presence in Manchuria long after the conquest of Vladivostok (vg. Port Arthur and the Manchurian RR).

I think Russia's best bet is to leave the southern-most province as that had the largest number of Han, the others were very thinly settled and had a lot of land that could be colonized easily. They'd be better off leaving Liaoning rather than risk having the whole region settled with migrants from that province.

IMHO that's probably Russia's safest bet. Still, the Russians did have a fixation with Port Arthur back then. If they can get they probably will.

 

[TheKutKu]

By 1850 large part of Eastern Jilin and a good half of Heilonjiang were very sparsely populated, if Russia can get these and limit themselves to that these region could be as Russian as the Far East is IRL.

The bulk of Lianoninh is indeed hard to swallow, hard borders would be impossible to have, and even if there is a demographic transition comparable to the russian’s and limited immigration you would end with a Manchuria region at least as populated as Ukraine. Not a major problem within Russia but would severely change the populaiton economy and politics of siberia

Central Manchuria, around and south of Hardin and good part of Jilin had a significantly lower han populaiton at the time, before the railroad, I think it could be kept as a medium sized region, which likely wouldn’t be much harder to swallow than an Uzbekistan IMO

 

[Arkenfolm]

The bulk of Lianoninh is indeed hard to swallow, hard borders would be impossible to have, and even if there is a demographic transition comparable to the russian’s and limited immigration you would end with a Manchuria region at least as populated as Ukraine.

Considering the existence of Green Ukraine in the area OTL you might actually have a Ukraine in Manchuria.

 

[alexmilman]

With a POD in the 1850's-60's we can pretty much exclude Japan from the game at first. Let's say that the British have some trouble during the Second Opium War (a longer Indian Mutiny?) and the Russians join them by occupying Manchuria and sacking Beijing. if Russia can get the upper hand in the war they might as well push for an even more favorable land grap and the British can counterbalance it by demanding the control of other Chinese ports. Eventually, if Russia gets Manchuria, the treaty might also garantee the Korean independence from China.

In the long run, Korea will become the point of contention of the region between the Great Powers and Meiji Japan will have a hard time expanding itself. Russia will have to deal with a big Chinese minority, which I don't think would be a big deal during the 19th century, and, when Chinese nationalism grows stronger in the 20th century, the region will already have a huge non-Chinese population.

The main problem with 1850s - 60s timeline is that during this period Russian ability to move troops and settlers even in OTL area were extremely limited. Muravyev’s expedition which lex to Aigun Treaty and border by Amur was tiny: it consisted of a single small paddle-propelled steamer and some boats. Of course, it was found that the Chinese/Manchu presence North of Amur was almost non-existent and very weak even along the Amur but the people he brought had been needed to strengthen existing garrisons on the Pacific coast (they allowed to repel Franco-British attacks) and to set up few (mostly village-size) settlements along Amur. After the border was settled transporting the settlers by Amur continued but it amounted to few thousands and, while providing a faster communication than a land route, Amur had serious limitation: it was freezing during the winter (and not usable until the late spring) and from time to time it was drying out to a degree that was making navigation impossible thus creating supply problems because for quite a while the settlement needed food supplies from the Eastern Siberia (they had to supply all settlements to the North up to Petropavlovsk and needed ammunition, clothes, etc.). With strengthening of the Pacific coast against a possible British attack being a high regional priority (Russian-British relations had not been good after the CW and Russian government considered possibility of the British attempt to expand along the coast even outside China) there were no free resources. Of course, it can be argued that, with a better economic policy (under AII Russia was suffering from a chronic budget deficit and its industry was growing very slowly, even the railroads had been losing money) and an absence of the idiotic fixation on the Balkans (before and after the war of 1877-78) much more resources could be dedicated to the Far East development.

However, your 1860 scenario may work if Russia joins the Brits and French and manages to move some noticeable number of troops to the area (this would be a major problem). Probably, not even necessary for them to go all the way to Beijing: they could go to Manchuria, occupy Harbin and few other places making contribution to the allied cause visible (probably encounter with few dozens of Manchu and Mongols armed with the bows could be easily presented as an epic battle against the countless barbaric hordes, etc.). Based upon the right of occupation, Russia is getting the whole Manchuria and immediately afterwards faces a problem of how to manage it: unlike the practically uninhabited areas which Russia got by OTL Aigun and Beijing treaties, this area not only huge but have population of few millions and Russia still does not have any practical communications even to its border. So, unless most of the Russian railroad construction resources of 1860s are dedicated to building a railroad to the East (instead of developing European Russia), holding that province would be extremely difficult.