an economic update, thoughts?
Interesting TL, not finished yet. But let me give you my thoughts.
1. Automobile production.
In 2005 US is still #1 (12,7 )., followed by Japan (10,1) and Germany (5,7) and China (5,5). As for Russia it can't exceed 2 million in best scenario. For example even with decade of investment OTL Russian production is somewhat between 1,7-2,2 million. Russian vehicles can't compete with others yet.
2. I think other numbers are significantly larger than OTL 2005 numbers. I guess they are recent statistics.
3. On Trade? How large Russian exports?
1. Mineral Fuels including oil (12.2%)
2. Iron, Steel, Metallurgy (11.15%)
3. Technology and Machinery (9.8%)
4. Gems and Precious Metals (6.3%)
5. Automobiles and Vehicles (6.1%)
6. Electric Machinery and Equipment (4.3%)
7. Agricultural Items (3%)
8. Wood (1.8%)
I think Russian exports still will be dominated by carbon fuels, e.g oil and NG. Then metals and other minerals. In best scenario 1/3 exports will be manufactured goods.
For me in 2005 Russian exports should look like this
1. OiI and NG - 40%-45%
2. Metals and other minerals 20-25%,
3. Defense export
4. Agriculture, especially grain exports
5. Gas turbine, electric machinery, other machinery and equipment
6. Aerospace ( Russia somehow modernized its civil airjet manufacturing the it could be 3rd player along with Boeing and Airbus)
7. And other manufactured goods
In general oil and NG sector will be main driver of Russian economy, followed by metals and other mining sectors. Defense sectors play main role in tech sector. Agricultural sector could be booming sector like OTL.
If somehow Russia did manage modernize and develop aerospace manufacturing sector, Russia could be 3rd player in jet market. Just 5-10% jet market is huge for Russia. Russia can be leading player in Regional jet along with Bombardier and Embraer.
When Great Recession comes in 2008, Russia could purchase Opel (they couldn't in OTL) then Russian cars can be competitive and export many cars. Maybe they could purchase one of Japanese electronic company.?
Russia can develop decent home grown semiconductor sector (Elbrus CPU), they can cooperate with TSMC or Korean or Japanese companies.
One sector Russia can be main player is IT sector, if everything works well for Russia. (VK, Mail.ru, Kaspersky, Telegrame, Yandex). Russia has real potential here.
When smartphone conquers cell phone market and if Russia somehow could purchase Nokia, then Russia can be one of the major player in telecommunication. Russia even can be 1st to develop 5G technology.
When Elon Musk started SpaceX he went to Russia and tried to purchase some rocket design and cooperate with Rusian rocket producer. However since Russia is not good place for business it failed. Maybe ITTL, Russia will cooperate and partner with Elon Musk.