Russia removed from Europe in Crimean war

[octoberman]

What if Russia was removed from Europe in crimean war ?

POD is Napoleon III and Palmerston convince Austria to join the Crimean war and that a panslavic Russia is more dangerous for them than independent Poland and Ukraine. They create rebellions in Finland, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine while invading Russia in their support. Russia is pushed out of all it's non Russian territory in Europe while Finland, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine are formed and Ottomans retake the caucuses

How will this effect the internal politics in Russia ?
How will Austria deal with Poland and
Ukraine ?
How will this change the Concert of Europe ?
How will Russia deal with Belarus, Finland and Ukraine ?
How will this Russia's expansion in Asia ?
Will Russia still sell Alaska?

 

[Evil Crusader]

ASB. The political will for such a lengthy effort simply does not exist, nor is there a real gain to be had, and the cost would cripple the attacking Powers even if they managed to press on and do it.

 

[Janrey]

ASB

 

[octoberman]

ASB. The political will for such a lengthy effort simply does not exist, nor is there a real gain to be had, and the cost would cripple the attacking Powers even of they managed to press on and do it.

There was political will. Ever heard about Palmerston vision for the Crimean war or Napoleon III's ideas for Poland ? The cost is merely dividing Russian army between UK, French, Austrian, Ottoman empires and rebels of Finland, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine

 

[CHKeeley]

Ever heard about Palmerston vision for the Crimean war or Napoleon III's ideas for Poland ? The cost is merely dividing Russian army between UK, French, Austrian, Ottoman empires and rebels of Finland, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine

The political visions and fancies by top level politicians don’t equal political will, and that “mere cost” is sustained war, economic dislocation, and hundreds of thousands of casualties.

By the end of the Crimean War OTL, Britain and especially France were facing mounting domestic opposition to the war. France had no particular interest or goal in the region, and would’ve opposed Palmerston’s hardline fantasies of an anti-Russian crusade. Austria had no interest in expanding the war either. Ottoman resources were already stretched, and British imperial commitments elsewhere (especially the ongoing squabble with the Qing and the brewing mutiny in India) precluded the type of extended war that would be required to dismantle the Russian Empire. Parliament’s inquiry into wartime casualties already led to the resignation of the Earl of Aberdeen - I don’t think there’s much stomach for multi-year vortex in Russia.

Without radically changed circumstances with a PoD a few decades in advance, it’s hard to see this plausibly.

 

[Janrey]

The only halfway plausible thing I would see is that they give Crimea to the Ottomans and I'm taking a risk

 

[alexmilman]

There was political will. Ever heard about Palmerston vision for the Crimean war or Napoleon III's ideas for Poland ? The cost is merely dividing Russian army between UK, French, Austrian, Ottoman empires

In OTL this assumption did not make too much of a difference because the bulk of the Russian army was staying on the Austrian border during the CW and combined French, British, Ottoman force (175,000) proved to be adequate for taking a southern part of Sevastopol defended by 43,000.

and rebels of Finland, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine

Political will is not enough for the fundamental changes: “Europe” stretches all the way eastward to the Ural Mountains so moving Russia out of it means either conquest of its territory all the way to these mountains or a fundamental change in geographic definitions. Neither was within Palmerston’s power. Not to mention that his grand plan was a pipe dream, based upon the wishful thinking and pure fantasies like creation of the Kingdom of Circassia, rebellions in Belorussia and Ukraine and an assumption that the British army may act as a meaningful independent force or that the British naval might can produce fundamental results against a land-based empire. Or an assumption that NIII will be willing to stick his neck further than was dictated by his interests. Speaking of which, NIII liked to talk about Poland but never did anything meaningful on its behalf.

 

[Fatt Shea]

What if Russia was removed from Europe in crimean war ?

It isn't really possible to just create rebellions, especially in places like Ukraine, Finland and especially Belarus where nationalism was not high, this would only be possible in Poland which had a history of rebellion and nationalism

 

[Lalli]

What if Russia was removed from Europe in crimean war ?

POD is Napoleon III and Palmerston convince Austria to join the Crimean war and that a panslavic Russia is more dangerous for them than independent Poland and Ukraine. They create rebellions in Finland, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine while invading Russia in their support. Russia is pushed out of all it's non Russian territory in Europe while Finland, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine are formed and Ottomans retake the caucuses

How will this effect the internal politics in Russia ?
How will Austria deal with Poland and
Ukraine ?
How will this change the Concert of Europe ?
How will Russia deal with Belarus, Finland and Ukraine ?
How will this Russia's expansion in Asia ?
Will Russia still sell Alaska?

You realise that Europe is bordered to Urals? It would require ASB to invade Russia that badly with Victorian era technology. And Russia without its western areas wouldn't be functional. All major things are western side of Urals. Furthermore no one hadn't intrest to make Poland, Baltics, Finland and Ukraine independent. And Finns were on that time very loyal to Russians and there barely was Ukrainian nationalism.

 

[octoberman]

Political will is not enough for the fundamental changes: “Europe” stretches all the way eastward to the Ural Mountains so moving Russia out of it means either conquest of its territory all the way to these mountains or a fundamental change in geographic definitions. Neither was within Palmerston’s power.

You realise that Europe is bordered to Urals? It would require ASB to invade Russia that badly with Victorian era technology. And Russia without its western areas wouldn't be functional. All major things are western side of Urals.

Read OP clearly

Russia is pushed out of all it's non Russian territory in Europe

 

[alexmilman]

Read OP clearly

OP is unrealistic. The details were already explained in more than one post.

Besides, the OP is self-contradictionary: it starts with “What if Russia was removed from Europe in crimean war ?” and then changes to “non Russian lands” (whatever this is supposed to mean within the realities of the 1850s), which is not the same. So which part of the OP is correct?

 

[Tanaka did nothing wrong]

Well, for Austria to join in the war, its leadership would need to a) feel confident in its ability to keep the Russian troops at bay and prevent an invasion of Hungary and b) ready to throw the Russian relationship, which had helped to a large extent with restoring order in Hungary, and the empire in general. As far as the first point is concerned, Austrian finances were at a breaking point just from the mobilisation of the troops to force Russia to withdraw from the Danubian principalities, and although in the case of entry to the war, Austria could expect perhaps financial assistance from the western allies, it would still not guarantee that the Russian troops would be contained at the border; other considerations would probably be about the contribution of the western allies to the war effort (ie that they would bail out and let Austria bear the brunt) and that, in the event of victory, Russia would still be left well capable of taking revenge on Austria at a later point - Vienna was not lacking enemies or potential rivals.

As far as the second point is concerned, I think that the Franz Josef and his generals and his ministers (architects of the Neoabsolutist system) would be very hesitant to turn on Russia at the very least, both due to its support in 1849, but also due to political and ideological affinity, not to mention the fact that accomodation of Russia had been one of the cornerstones of Austrian foreign policy since 1815. It could be argued that Austria would be better off remaining more strictly neutral and not issuing the ultimatum dictating the withdrawal of the Russian forces from Wallachia and Moldavia - the Russians would probably manage to advance into Bulgaria but still face problems, perhaps even be defeated, considering the problems of the Russian armed forces at the time, therefore Russian hegemony in the Balkans would be avoided, and Russia and Austria could remain in talking, if not cordial terms.

 

[Lalli]

Read OP clearly

Yes, on message you speak about throwing Russians from Finland, Baltics, Poland and Ukraine but on title you speak about kicking Russians from Europe. These are not exactly same thing so you should be clearer what you are meaning since Urals are indeed eastern borders of Europe.

But even if you really meant FInland, Baltics, Poland and Ukraine even that is very unrealistic idea.

 

[Valena]

Restoring PLC and Sweden in its 1650ies borders would require ASBs with hypnobeams. That's contrary to real politics of the time. And concepts of independent Belarus and Ukraine separate-from-PLC identity are anachronistic as of the time.

 

[Ed of the Pueblos Libres]

OP is unrealistic.

What a person you are alexmilman.

 

[The Tai-Pan]

They create rebellions in Finland, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine while invading Russia in their support.

How? This is a very difficult thing to do, doubly so to largely land-locked regions with very strong Russian presence.

 

[Lalli]

How? This is a very difficult thing to do, doubly so to largely land-locked regions with very strong Russian presence.

Exactly. Finland was very loyal so there would be hard to find someone who would want lead revolt and yet getting some army. Poland could be possible but Prussia and A-H would have come objections. Belarus and Ukraine are too far and there barely was even such national feelings as nowadays. And even nowadays Belorussian national feeling is not that strong as Ukrainian national feeling.

 

[Valena]

And even nowadays Belorussian national feeling is not that strong as Ukrainian national feeling.

We had no "wholesome" partitions dated back to 17th century and no strong West-East division, speaking as Belarusian to you.

 

[Valena]

Prussia and A-H would have come objections

That. The POD amounts to restoring PLC and Swedish Empire to early 17th century borders, which at least Prussians would not like for obvious reasons.

 

[octoberman]

Restoring PLC and Sweden in its 1650ies borders would require ASBs with hypnobeams.

It is possible with the pressure from a joint invasion by UK, French, Austrian, Ottoman empires and rebellions in Poland, Ukraine, Finland and Belarus

It isn't really possible to just create rebellions, especially in places like Ukraine, Finland and especially Belarus where nationalism was not high, this would only be possible in Poland which had a history of rebellion and nationalism

That's contrary to real politics of the time. And concepts of independent Belarus and Ukraine separate-from-PLC identity are anachronistic as of the time.

Belarus and Ukraine are too far and there barely was even such national feelings as nowadays. And even nowadays Belorussian national feeling is not that strong as Ukrainian national feeling.

Learn before you write nationalism was on the in Ukraine, Finland and Belarus during mid 19th century https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Główna_Rada_Ruska https://fi.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suomalainen_nationalismi https://be.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Беларускае_нацыянальнае_адраджэнне

How? This is a very difficult thing to do, doubly so to largely land-locked regions with very strong Russian presence.

Rebellions can be organised by spies

That. The POD amounts to restoring PLC and Swedish Empire to early 17th century borders, which at least Prussians would not like for obvious reasons.

Read OP clearly there is no PLC nor Swedish Empire but independent Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Finland