Rumsfeldia: Fear and Loathing in the Decade of Tears

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:eek::eek:

Oh my God!

This makes Reagan's "trees cause pollution" statement look like nothing!

A not-so-subtle sub theme - Reagan wasn't really as bad as his detractors make him out to be (nor was he as good as his worshippers would have him either - must be fair and balanced :rolleyes:)
 
Moving from an eight to a twelve hour day will almost certainly reduce employment. Basically, there are only so many working hours out there, and even with a reduction in take home wages, I don't think you'd see that much expansion of the productive economy.

Essentially, assuming a fixed number of working hours. Assuming that you increase labourers work day/period by 50%, that means that you've surplused a third of your workforce. 33% are being sent home because there's no work for them.

Now, assuming that the 33% is high, there's probably a bunch of positions where for one reason or another, that's not viable. You'd still be at say 28 to 25%.

I can't see the economy expanding sufficiently to sop up roughly 28 to 25% of new unemployment. Even with reduced wages/reinvestment in stock options. Let's assume some expansion though. The economy leaps ahead and expands to 10 or 15%, and we see a boom/bubble.

That still leaves between 10 and 18% of the working population cast adrift and into the lurch. Assume that this is on top of the regular unemployment rate which in the 80's ran between 5 and 8%, we are looking at 15 to 26% and a gutted social safety net.

Some interest things here.

First: Major social/economic dislocations. Basically, we have everyone scrambling to be in the lifeboat - ie, not to be part of that 33 to 25% that gets pitched overboard as redundant. I see a lot of fear, a lot of uncertainty and desperation. The ones who get to stay in the lifeboat are going to be scared and vulnerable, they can get replaced really easy.

Second: Goodbye unions. You can't maintain effective labour solidarity when there's a line up ready to take your job, or any job. Goodbye any kind of bargaining power. Don't like having your wages shifted into stock options? Tough luck, at least you still have a job, that can change real quick.

Third: Artificial expansion of the labour pool will depress labour prices. This will be exaggerated by the 'stock option route' which I think is designed to reduce the up front cost of labour even more. I suspect that what we'd see is a shift in the salary structure - the 'stock options route' would swallow union dues and encroach on or devour pension plans and health plans before actually going into take home pay. It would go into take home pay, but not before picking up the low hanging. There might be an illusory sense of wealth, since stock options represent 'assets' that, as Jonathan Edelstein has pointed out, could be used as security and borrowed against for credit.

Fourth: Who gets laid off. I suspect that it won't be on the basis of seniority. Rather, the targets for layoffs are probably going to be the vulnerable constituencies - blacks, women, immigrants and especially the politically nonconforming. Basically, all groups that are already on the outs with and marginalized by the Rumsfeld administration. There's the 'back to the 50's and get women out of the workplace shtick/jobs for men' shtick. There's racial divide and rule politics. There's going to be strong incentive to have and hold the 'right' views, particularly if you want to keep your job.

Fifth: Assuming that the reduction in labour costs driven by these various factors takes place, then you've got a lot of extra capital or extra revenue coming into the hands of business. It's like dumping pure sugar into the bloodstream. So you'll see some kind of boom. The economy will expand, or it will appear to expand. Businesses will do well, they'll expand operations, diversify, invest. On the surface, Rumsfeld will be able to take credit for an economic boom, and he'll be in a position to promise that the boom will eventually reach out and lift all the boats, including those temporarily unemployed or surplused. Basically, for those who have jobs, there's a bright future just around the corner. For those who don't have jobs, there's a future with a job just around the corner. He can get some mileage out of that.

Sixth: There's limits to the boom. Everything seems to show a depressed consumer economy with people shifting to credit and blowing through their savings, either to maintain their lifestyle while employed, or to keep from starving if unemployed. Depressed consumer economy means depressing the market for goods and services, and that means that production and productive capacity is excessive - there's no one to buy. There's no indication that the US is doing gangbusters international markets. So, sooner or later, you're going to see a stall or contraction in the productive economy, with unemployment rates freezing or starting to climb, new rounds of layoffs, etc.

Seventh: So there's a problem. Business has all this cash from artificially depressed wage costs. The consumer economy can't expand sufficiently to drive that cash into investment. Where does it go? Speculation, I think. Acquisition, lots of buy ups. And a lot of reckless investing. I think we'll see the Savings and Loans fiasco amplified by crack. The foundation will be different obviously - the savings and loans fiasco was a matter of deregulating the industry and creating a desperate race for the big money return. This syndrome is going to be, as I said, injecting pure sugar into the veins in the form of record amounts of cash in business profits, and trying to make something of that. In the long run, its going to crash out. Possibly big time. The best anyone can hope for is a kind of ongoing reallocation of assets and wealth. Worst case is catastrophic implosion.

How long will that take? Assuming artificial exuberance, all kinds of recklessness, and a commitment by Rumsfeld to keep the bubble going as long as possible, he might get a few years, maybe more.

And by that time, Americans might well be trained to drink the Kool-ade, bow and scrape on command and enthusiastically eat the weakest among them.

This is a very good and detailed analysis. I like it. Thanks for contributing DValdron. Perhaps ITTL you wrote a book about it...
 
Regardless of how plausible or implausible it has become, I really don't want you to quit this TL, if only for the reason that you've already come this far, and you might as well see it through to the end of Rumsfeldia.

Don't let the critics hold you down. Keep it going.
 
I second this. ^

I want to see Rumsfeld get what's coming to him. I'd love to see the long-term ramifications of his administration, including whether or not extreme social Darwinism really does take hold among the poor and working classes.
 

PatrickS

Banned
In that case you could consider FLG'72 to be a complete story.

Three alternatives suggest themselves and are open to further TLs.

1] Reagan wins in 1980, thus returning to a TL similar to OTL, but still with echoes from the shocks of the more disturbed '70's (and of course, the utter desolation of China).

2] Hugh Carey wins in 1980, thus creating a whole new TL for the 1980's, where a Carey Administration has to deal with the shocks of the '70's.

3] Similar to above, except that Pete McCloskey wins in 1984, defeating a reputdated Rumsfeld, with appropriate problems for the GOP going forward, and the McCloskey Administration having to repair the damage.

4] I'm open to other ideas on a different sequal to FLG'72 - this being AH nothing is written in stone.

Please finish this, but I would love to see Ted Kennedy in 1980
 
Are you continuing Rumsfeldia or doing another AH of FLG'72?

No, I'll continue Rumsfeldia to its end - I'm not giving-up on anything.

I am, however, inviting people who feel this TL has jumped the Shark to suggest alternatives or PODs - and maybe run with an idea if they want.
 
The Uplift Act allows corporations to vote and, in certain cases, run for election and hold office. The Religious Liberty Act allows recognized churches to form and administer to corporations as part of their religious mission. Said corporations do not need to be involved in religious activities.

I don't see either act not getting smashed to pieces the moment a federal judge opens his newspaper, but there's been no indication of a legal challenge.

These are rally-around-the-flag types of acts meant to energize the base by allowing them to realize what thet want, yet seeing their way blocked by "those liberals/socialists/commies/freaks/atheists etc." and doubling down on the idea that Rumsfeld is their champion against the "evil forces."

I would expect that the minute after Rumsfeld signed them into law legal challenges would be filed in all ten circuits in a number of district courts, with idea of getting at least some challenges to the circuit appeal level. Not all ten circuits will agree which in turn invites a SCOTUS challenge, where these will not stand-up *under the current TL court* - but then, well... who knows ;)

The fact that these were placed into the 28th amendment, and as such trying to end-run the legislative and judicial process suggests that the acts couldn't get by Congress, or if they did, their constitutional basis (as Acts of Congress) is so weak as to tie them down in litigation for years.

The intent of the Religious Liberty Act was to prevent the IRS from meddling with the churches commercial activity. The 28th amendment - to a degree - supercedes that.

The Current Supreme Court Bench

Warren E. Burger CJ (Nixon)

wants to resign but feels constrained by what kind of Justice Rumsfeld would replace him with and who Rummy would elevate to be the new CJ

Associate Justices (by seniority)

William J. Brennan (Eisenhower)
Byron R. White (Kennedy)
Thurgood Marshall (Johnson)
Harold A. Blackmun (Nixon)
Lewis F. Powell (Nixon)
William H. Rehnquist (Nixon)
Cornelia Grofsema-Kennedy (Gavin)
Robert J. "Bob" Dole (Rumsfeld)
 
I think Rumsfeld defeated in 1984 is probably the best solution, as it would allow you to keep many of the best parts of Rumsfeldia in.

However, if a (partially) different sequel is contemplated is there any possibility that John B. Anderson could win in either 80 or 84? Though I guess, like I've said before 84 (either he manages a succesful primary coup or turns Democrat, perhaps) would be more interesting, as by then Rumsfeld has actually done what damage I could see him getting away with and would preserve many of this TL's more interesting events.
As I've read previously he did manage a small victory in his debate with Reagan OTL and from what I've read about him it seems like he could potentially be the sort of man pick up the pieces after Rummy is gone.
 
I think Rumsfeld defeated in 1984 is probably the best solution, as it would allow you to keep many of the best parts of Rumsfeldia in.

However, if a (partially) different sequel is contemplated is there any possibility that John B. Anderson could win in either 80 or 84? Though I guess, like I've said before 84 (either he manages a succesful primary coup or turns Democrat, perhaps) would be more interesting, as by then Rumsfeld has actually done what damage I could see him getting away with and would preserve many of this TL's more interesting events.
As I've read previously he did manage a small victory in his debate with Reagan OTL and from what I've read about him it seems like he could potentially be the sort of man pick up the pieces after Rummy is gone.

One thought is instead of a McCloskey-Dellums Democratic/WTP fusion you have instead a McCloskey-Anderson Democratic/Republican moderate fusion. Something could happen to McCloskey sometime during their administration.
 
So what I'm wondering is would Jimmy Carter be viewed sort of as the American Gorbachev or is he going to end up "taking a rest" as our dear Mister Cheney puts it?

Also, how's the Soviet Union coming along with the adoption of their economic reforms?
 
I don’t feel this timeline has “jumped the shark” in any sense. It’s strange, it’s unlikely, and part of it might cause people to throw their hands in the air…

…but I just tell myself “it can’t happen here.” And remember that some of it has in OTL.
 
I don’t feel this timeline has “jumped the shark” in any sense. It’s strange, it’s unlikely, and part of it might cause people to throw their hands in the air

Just like real life.

…but I just tell myself “it can’t happen here.” And remember that some of it has in OTL.

Ah, but It Can Happen Here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It_Can_Happen_Here

and it is happening here

http://www.thestar.com/entertainment/books/2014/10/25/party_of_one_by_michael_harris_review.html
 
Drew,

Feedback is all very nice. Flattery is terrific. Discussion which gives you ideas and helps you with your process is a wonderful thing.

But in the end, it's your goddammed timeline. You are the one who put thousands of hours of work into it. At the end of the day, its your commitment, your say, your decisions.

Trust your own Judgement. If people like it, fine. If they don't, then tough. You have more than earned the right. Ultimately, it doesn't matter what anyone else thinks, and it certainly doesn't matter what a passing fancy thinks.

Its yours, you do it, make your choices and don't look back.

Den Valdron
 
Second: Goodbye unions. You can't maintain effective labour solidarity when there's a line up ready to take your job, or any job. Goodbye any kind of bargaining power. Don't like having your wages shifted into stock options? Tough luck, at least you still have a job, that can change real quick.

And yet, in OTL the Great Depression saw an increase in labor activity. The problem with the scenario you describe is while some of the "survivors" may well be cowed, you've also created way too many people who have nothing left to lose.

Now, doing a search on the thread, I don't actually see any explanation on how these proposals were actually legislated, so if you want to retain the "feel" of Rumsfeldia without descending into cartoon supervillany:

The American Investment Act amends the Federal Minimum Wage, allowing stock options to count towards the minimum wage requirement to a limited extent. (Similar to the loophole for tipped workers.) This will by-and-large not affect anyone who wasn't already working for minimum wage, for the same reason that those businesses don't already pay everyone minimum wage -- there are perfectly good market reasons not to rock the boat. After all, surely the Administration isn't telling the free market how to distribute benefits, right?

Likewise, the Let Americans Work Act changes time-and-a-half requirements for non-exempt employees to 60 hours a week from 40 hours. This is going to have little immediate impact on the middle class, most of whom were salaried anyway -- the impact will be on the McJobs, the people who were already not part of Rumsfeld's base. (And who are intentionally kept disorganized.)

TLDR; Rumsfeldia cannot survive by screwing over everyone for the benefit of the 1%ers. Rumsfeldia may survive by producing a legitimate boom for the middle and professional classes at the expense of the lowest-wage workers, who as you say are mostly the wrong color anyway.

Can't see something as asinine as calling the concept of salaries "a communist racket" being taken seriously, though. Unless the writers of All in the Family were trying to slip an anti-administration attack past a particularly thick-headed censor. :p

EDIT: Of course, once the initial economic bubble wears off, the depression of wages and the 60-hour work week will have impacts on the middle class, but that may well take a few years and as such could have a chance to be The Way Things Are.
 
Can't see something as asinine as calling the concept of salaries "a communist racket" being taken seriously, though. Unless the writers of All in the Family were trying to slip an anti-administration attack past a particularly thick-headed censor. :p

Maybe they were trying to be funny. After all, they put the "save the world from democracy" line in there too.
 

Ming777

Monthly Donor
I am curious as to when and how will tensions finally come to a head. The breaking point must be around the corner.
 
And yet, in OTL the Great Depression saw an increase in labor activity. The problem with the scenario you describe is while some of the "survivors" may well be cowed, you've also created way too many people who have nothing left to lose.

But I would argue that the labour market is nowhere near the same as during the depression.


TLDR; Rumsfeldia cannot survive by screwing over everyone for the benefit of the 1%ers.

I don't expect Rumsfeldia to survive.
 
But I would argue that the labour market is nowhere near the same as during the depression.

I don't expect Rumsfeldia to survive.

I mean, Drew has said that Rumsfeldia at some point implodes, given the "present day" sources from people like Hillary Clinton and Obama (for all we know, ITTL Newt Gingrich is some fringe scholar like Alex Jones or whatever).
 
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