Romania refuses: Bessarabia not given back

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Romania gave up Bessarabia to the USSR after pressure from Stalin. What if Romania refused? Could it have repelled the Soviets like the Finns did? Could the Germans have an advantage if they invade the USSR while the Red Army is busy in Bessarabia.

 

[Fearless Leader]

To put it simply: no. The Romanians could not have repelled the Soviets like the Finns. The terrain is vastly different, the weather would be warmer, and the Romanian army is still horrendously underequipped.

Theres no way the Germans would let the Soviets grab Ploesti. Likely this course of action results in a joint German/Soviet invasion which partitions Romania between them.

 

[Magnum]

Romania would by no means be a push-over and the Soviets are going to be suffering badly:
- execrable Soviet organization (this cannot be stressed enough)
- terrain that is hilly, somewhat forested and has multiple rivers running along the front, with little usable infrastructure
- a Romanian army that will have pretty good morale, a considerable artillery park and decent numbers, fighting on home ground

As a point of reference, Romania managed to defeat the Red Army formations right in front of them and take back Bessarabia mostly (though not completely) without German asisstance in '41.

Working against Romania is the fact that they will have to keep forces deployed against Hungary and Bulgaria as well. (And if they attack as well, Bucharest will sue for peace,regardless of the momentary military situation)

The diplomatic situation must also be considered - Germany was deadly afraid of the Soviets taking the oilfields, and would certainly pressure Stalin not to advance too far; Italy meanwhile was being actively courted by Romania, who was hoping to gain a new patron - OTL, Mussolini sided with Hungary (and Germany) against Romania when it came to piciking, but here things are different, and the outcome might not be the same.

Lastly, there is a decent chance that Romania resists long enough for Hitler to give up on the thought of invading Britain and deciding on Barbarossa instead, which would further complicate the diplomatic situation.

What is certain in my opinion is that the Germans would under no circumstances invade themselves, because while the Soviets could stomach Romania preemptively blowing up the oilfields and refineries, Germany could not

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

If this occurs before the Winter War then this would be a benefit to the Third Reich as the threat of Soviets taking their main source of oil would take priority over Sudetenland possibly butterflying the Munich agreement and Molotov Ribbentrop pact. Leading to a full blown Axis invasion of the Soviet union from all sides in future.
After or During the Winter war, the Soviets would suffer an even more humiliating defeat than OTL. Opening up the way for a more successful Operation Barbarossa.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Romania would by no means be a push-over and the Soviets are going to be suffering badly:
- execrable Soviet organization (this cannot be stressed enough)

The Soviet organization among the forces massed against Romania in late-June 1940 was actually... well, not good, but mediocre enough that it most definitely wouldn't be a repeat of the November-December offensives of the Winter War. The Soviets had a nasty lesson of the consequences of trying to half-ass the organization an invasion of a foreign country and they had massed more then enough power to brute force whatever fight the Romanians could put up if the Romanians rejected their demands. We're probably looking at a situation more akin to the Soviet February offensives in the Winter War, where the Soviets brute forced the Finnish defenses in ten days, albiet at the cost of heavy losses.

As a point of reference, Romania managed to defeat the Red Army formations right in front of them and take back Bessarabia mostly (though not completely) without German asisstance in '41.

Not accounting for the difference in readiness, the Southern Front on June 26 1940 was 3 times larger then the Odessa Military District on June 22nd (and the fact that the former was already a front, a wartime formation, whereas the latter was a district, a peacetime formation, is significant), the former mustering twice as many rifle divisions alone as the latter did total divisions.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

The Soviet organization among the forces massed against Romania in late-June 1940 was actually... well, not good, but mediocre enough that it most definitely wouldn't be a repeat of the November-December offensives of the Winter War. The Soviets had a nasty lesson of the consequences of trying to half-ass the organization an invasion of a foreign country and they had massed more then enough power to brute force whatever fight the Romanians could put up if the Romanians rejected their demands. We're probably looking at a situation more akin to the Soviet February offensives in the Winter War, where the Soviets brute forced the Finns.

Wouldn't this mean the front is more extended when the Nazis invade?

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Wouldn't this mean the front is more extended when the Nazis invade?

By the time the Nazis invade a year later, the war is liable to be over. It's interesting to speculate whether the Soviets might extract greater territorial extractions if they defeat the Romanians or not. If they add the rest of Moldovia in the subsequent peace deal, then that means the Axis advance out of Romania in 1941 is if anything somewhat slower as having the Carpathians helping to secure it's western flank let the Odessa Military District man narrower front with consequently denser defenses. They'll still ultimately be defeated, if nothing else the German advance out of Poland is going to force a withdrawal towards Odessa. Whether adding a couple of weeks (at most) time to the Axis advances south of Tarnopol is a significant enough change to affect the larger campaign... is hard to tell. Perhaps they might avoid the Uman encirclement (which is a HUGE bonus for the Soviets) or perhaps they might not.

If the Soviets don't annex any additional territory, however, then there is little reason to expect Barbarossa would be any different from OTL.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

By the time the Nazis invade a year later, the war is liable to be over. It's interesting to speculate whether the Soviets might extract greater territorial extractions if they defeat the Romanians or not. If they add the rest of Moldovia in the subsequent peace deal, then that means the Axis advance out of Romania in 1941 is if anything somewhat slower as having the Carpathians helping to secure it's western flank let the Odessa Military District man narrower front with consequently denser defenses. They'll still ultimately be defeated, if nothing else the German advance out of Poland is going to force a withdrawal towards Odessa. Whether adding a couple of weeks (at most) time to the Axis advances south of Tarnopol is a significant enough change to affect the larger campaign... is hard to tell. Perhaps they might avoid the Uman encirclement (which is a HUGE bonus for the Soviets) or perhaps they might not.

If the Soviets don't annex any additional territory, however, then there is little reason to expect Barbarossa would be any different from OTL.

Well I did get into under the assumption that this was an alternative choice of conflict to OTL finland.

 

[Tibi088]

It was already mentioned but I think not stressed enough that Romania would also have to count on Hungarian and Bulgarian involvement against them as well.

 

[DrakonFin]

We're probably looking at a situation more akin to the Soviet February offensives in the Winter War, where the Soviets brute forced the Finnish defenses in ten days, albiet at the cost of heavy losses.

With the obvious difference that they would be going against rested, prepared Romanian troops in the defence, as opposed to the Finnish troops of February 1940 that had been doing constant, heavy frontline duty for two months with nonexistent reserves and thus no time for rest and refit. The Finnish troops were tired, increasingly demoralized and fighting with the last of their strength in February 1940, and that explains in part the comparative success of the Red Army during the new offensive.

 

[Karelian]

With the obvious difference that they would be going against rested, prepared Romanian troops in the defence, as opposed to the Finnish troops of February 1940 that had been doing constant, heavy frontline duty for two months with inexistent reserves and thus no time for rest and refit. The Finnish troops were tired, increasinly demoralized and fighting with the last of their strength in February 1940, and that explains in part the comparative success of the Red Army during the new offensive.

Did the Romanians have any fortifications to speak of?

 

[Historianm]

It all depends on the germans and italians if they rein in the hungarians and bulgarians it could be a great opportunity to waste tons of russian troops. I don,t think the romanians can win but soviet casualties will be big. You have to consider at its height of participation the romanians had somewhere around 600k troops on the eastern front and round 1 million under arms, plus i can even see romanian air superiority at the start with the IAR 80 in play.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Were their still polish soldiers in Romania at that time or had they all regrouped in the west by then?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Some previous threads that might help provide some inspiration:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...et-aggression-against-romania-in-1940.412124/

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...end-bessarabia-and-resist-the-soviets.248576/

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-romania-fights-in-1940.145643/

Were their still polish soldiers in Romania at that time or had they all regrouped in the west by then?

Long gone by then.

Did the Romanians have any fortifications to speak of?

https://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=176372
https://www.feldgrau.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4864

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Long gone by then.

Did the Romanians conduct interviews with any of them as they passed through? Might be some transferrable knowledge there about being on the receiving end of a "Soviet onslaught".

 

[Geordie]

If this occurs before the Winter War then this would be a benefit to the Third Reich as the threat of Soviets taking their main source of oil would take priority over Sudetenland possibly butterflying the Munich agreement and Molotov Ribbentrop pact. Leading to a full blown Axis invasion of the Soviet union from all sides in future.
After or During the Winter war, the Soviets would suffer an even more humiliating defeat than OTL. Opening up the way for a more successful Operation Barbarossa.

I don't quite understand this post.

The Sudetenland crisis was October 1938. Happening instead of (or concurrently with) the Winter War would put a Bessarabian War over a year after Munich. If it happens when the OTL demand came from the USSR, it's later still.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Did the Romanians conduct interviews with any of them as they passed through? Might be some transferrable knowledge there about being on the receiving end of a "Soviet onslaught".

Don't know, but the Romanian military wasn't really set up to take advantage of that sort of knowledge in any significant way. Having border forts and and army set up to fight a defensive WW1 style campaign in relatively rough terrain though is probably the best counter to what is coming out of the USSR at the time, which is what the Romanian army is set up to do.

 

[fockewulf]

Turkey's help wasn't to engage the SU, it was to keep Bulgaria busy in case they decided to claim Dobruja. Yugoslavia had the same role against Hungary but they advised Romania to accept the Soviet demands. Anyway the Western Carpathian mountains were a good defensive line, strengthened by fortifications, to keep the Hungarian in check with relatively few troops. The real problem was in the east. Although it was a good defensive terrain with a lot of rivers and hills, the fortifications were almost non existent, for fear of provoking the Soviets. With a little more guts, King Carol II, could have tried to ask for German support in case the Soviets will invade the old kingdom. Sure, eventually the Romanian army will fold, but I believe it might resist at least a month, giving enough time for the German army to redeploy from France. I'm curious what will be the reaction of GBR and US.

 

[Dan1988]

Hmm, a Romanian SSR would be an interesting twist.

IMO that would probably be the ultimate result, particularly once the tide of the war turns against the Nazis. How to make that happen, I don't know.

 

[Open Green Fields]

It could have meant a total collapse of the German economy and ww2 taking a completely different turn. There would have been no invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941.

Hitler himself talks about a similar scenario. In 1942 Hitler goes to Finland and talks with their military leader.



I always feared - that Russia suddenly would attack Romania in the late fall - and occupy the petroleum wells, and we would have not been ready in the late fall of 1940. If Russia indeed had taken Romanian petroleum wells, than Germany would have been lost. It would have required - just 60 Russian divisions to handle that matter.

In Romania we had of course - at that time - no major units. The Romanian government had turned to us only recently - and what we did have there was laughable. They only had to occupy the petroleum wells. Of course, with our weapons I could not start a, war in September or October. That was out of the question. Naturally, the transfer to the east wasn't that far advanced yet. Of course, the units first had to reconsolidate in the west. First the armaments had to be taken care of because we too had - yes, we also had losses in our campaign in the west. It would have been impossible to attack - before the spring of 19, 41. And if the Russians at that time - in the fall of 1940 - had occupied Romania - taken the petroleum wells, then we would have been, helpless in 1941.

Another Voice In Background: Without petroleum...

Hitler: (Interrupting) We had huge German production: however, the demands of the air force, our Panzer divisions - they are really huge. It is level of consumption that surpasses the imagination. And without the addition of four to five million tons of Romanian petroleum, we could not have fought the war - and would have had to let it be - and that was my big worry.