Romania gave up Bessarabia to the USSR after pressure from Stalin. What if Romania refused? Could it have repelled the Soviets like the Finns did? Could the Germans have an advantage if they invade the USSR while the Red Army is busy in Bessarabia.
Romania would by no means be a push-over and the Soviets are going to be suffering badly:
- execrable Soviet organization (this cannot be stressed enough)
As a point of reference, Romania managed to defeat the Red Army formations right in front of them and take back Bessarabia mostly (though not completely) without German asisstance in '41.
The Soviet organization among the forces massed against Romania in late-June 1940 was actually... well, not good, but mediocre enough that it most definitely wouldn't be a repeat of the November-December offensives of the Winter War. The Soviets had a nasty lesson of the consequences of trying to half-ass the organization an invasion of a foreign country and they had massed more then enough power to brute force whatever fight the Romanians could put up if the Romanians rejected their demands. We're probably looking at a situation more akin to the Soviet February offensives in the Winter War, where the Soviets brute forced the Finns.
Wouldn't this mean the front is more extended when the Nazis invade?
By the time the Nazis invade a year later, the war is liable to be over. It's interesting to speculate whether the Soviets might extract greater territorial extractions if they defeat the Romanians or not. If they add the rest of Moldovia in the subsequent peace deal, then that means the Axis advance out of Romania in 1941 is if anything somewhat slower as having the Carpathians helping to secure it's western flank let the Odessa Military District man narrower front with consequently denser defenses. They'll still ultimately be defeated, if nothing else the German advance out of Poland is going to force a withdrawal towards Odessa. Whether adding a couple of weeks (at most) time to the Axis advances south of Tarnopol is a significant enough change to affect the larger campaign... is hard to tell. Perhaps they might avoid the Uman encirclement (which is a HUGE bonus for the Soviets) or perhaps they might not.
If the Soviets don't annex any additional territory, however, then there is little reason to expect Barbarossa would be any different from OTL.
We're probably looking at a situation more akin to the Soviet February offensives in the Winter War, where the Soviets brute forced the Finnish defenses in ten days, albiet at the cost of heavy losses.
Did the Romanians have any fortifications to speak of?With the obvious difference that they would be going against rested, prepared Romanian troops in the defence, as opposed to the Finnish troops of February 1940 that had been doing constant, heavy frontline duty for two months with inexistent reserves and thus no time for rest and refit. The Finnish troops were tired, increasinly demoralized and fighting with the last of their strength in February 1940, and that explains in part the comparative success of the Red Army during the new offensive.
Long gone by then.Were their still polish soldiers in Romania at that time or had they all regrouped in the west by then?
https://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=176372Did the Romanians have any fortifications to speak of?
Did the Romanians conduct interviews with any of them as they passed through? Might be some transferrable knowledge there about being on the receiving end of a "Soviet onslaught".Long gone by then.
I don't quite understand this post.If this occurs before the Winter War then this would be a benefit to the Third Reich as the threat of Soviets taking their main source of oil would take priority over Sudetenland possibly butterflying the Munich agreement and Molotov Ribbentrop pact. Leading to a full blown Axis invasion of the Soviet union from all sides in future.
After or During the Winter war, the Soviets would suffer an even more humiliating defeat than OTL. Opening up the way for a more successful Operation Barbarossa.
Don't know, but the Romanian military wasn't really set up to take advantage of that sort of knowledge in any significant way. Having border forts and and army set up to fight a defensive WW1 style campaign in relatively rough terrain though is probably the best counter to what is coming out of the USSR at the time, which is what the Romanian army is set up to do.Did the Romanians conduct interviews with any of them as they passed through? Might be some transferrable knowledge there about being on the receiving end of a "Soviet onslaught".