Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline

[A_simple_pilgrim]

While that is a beautiful Armenia, I think it would have to take a major genocide of turks for such a state to exist. In fact I can't imagine there being enough Armenians in that state to defend those borders even if the turks were totally "dealt with". Greece would love to have such a giant Armenia though, I bet they could work out some deals regarding the Turkish rump state(really hoping it doesn't get so bad that there is no Turkish state), and Pontic greeks could have their rights guaranteed and stuff.

Realistically I can't see such an Armenia existing. The best they can hope for is continued Russian success in war, and them being made into a Russian proxy state, that basically acts as their enforcer in the near east. Later improving relations with the Greeks, and combined being able to take down the turks on two fronts. The limits of such a state would probably resemble the Classical Armenian kingdom. I don't see a way for lower Armenia to join that, especially as it would limit the turks to just the central Anatolian plateau and I'm not sure if that is a viable state when there is a hostile Greece on one side and a hostile Armenia on the other.

 

[GoukaRyuu]

While that is a beautiful Armenia, I think it would have to take a major genocide of turks for such a state to exist. In fact I can't imagine there being enough Armenians in that state to defend those borders even if the turks were totally "dealt with". Greece would love to have such a giant Armenia though, I bet they could work out some deals regarding the Turkish rump state(really hoping it doesn't get so bad that there is no Turkish state), and Pontic greeks could have their rights guaranteed and stuff.

Realistically I can't see such an Armenia existing. The best they can hope for is continued Russian success in war, and them being made into a Russian proxy state, that basically acts as their enforcer in the near east. Later improving relations with the Greeks, and combined being able to take down the turks on two fronts. The limits of such a state would probably resemble the Classical Armenian kingdom. I don't see a way for lower Armenia to join that, especially as it would limit the turks to just the central Anatolian plateau and I'm not sure if that is a viable state when there is a hostile Greece on one side and a hostile Armenia on the other.

Honestly, I think I would be happy for them as long as they are able to have Ani.

 

[mapuche lautarino]

a multicultural Armenia

 

[danybhoy]

It is a good idea

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a3/Proposed_Armenian_state_in_Asia_Minor.png?1601497271026

Armenians would be a minority in any state like that and a lot of land there isn't even historically Armenian

 

[formion]

The previously mentioned map is certainly ASB, without a massive russian victory where St Petersburg decides that Cilicia offers the best warm port.

First of all, we might never have an independent Armenia as the fall of the Russian Empire is by no means certain. There may be a Russian Federation that includes Armenia as a federal republic.

What I find intriguing is having two Armenias: a russian-ruled one in the Armenian Highlands and a Cilician Armenia under the influence of western powers. If we consider the OTL Caucasus Front of the Crimean War and we add the facts that Kars is already russian and Erzerum is in danger, then it is quite possible that the Russians will get Wilsonian Armenia by the end of the Great Eurasian War. The OTL Ottoman Army of the Caucasus was really that incompetent and they had faced only a fraction of TTL russian forces. The Russians now hold all the advantages. For the Ottomans, Caucasus is a side show at best, since a potential collapse of the Balkan Front will put Constantinople in mortal danger.

Lastly, it is the pre-Suez Canal era, so Trabzon serves most of the persian trade. With Persia being a more relevant power than OTL, control of Trabzon must be relatively high in russian priorities.

 

[Lascaris]

The previously mentioned map is certainly ASB, without a massive russian victory where St Petersburg decides that Cilicia offers the best warm port.

First of all, we might never have an independent Armenia as the fall of the Russian Empire is by no means certain. There may be a Russian Federation that includes Armenia as a federal republic.

What I find intriguing is having two Armenias: a russian-ruled one in the Armenian Highlands and a Cilician Armenia under the influence of western powers.

Not certain how practical a Cilician state is population wise, Not without population transfers at least. OTOH Cilicia makes the logical northern border for an exansionist Egypt that controls Syria...

 

[formion]

Not certain how practical a Cilician state is population wise,

I think Cilicia with Alexandretta can become a viable small state: According to Kevorkian , in 1913 there were 189k Armenians in the Aleppo Vilayet and 119k in Adana Vilayet, even after the Adana Massacres.

If the Selefke Sanjak is excluded (as it had a great muslim majority) and the neighboring Armenians are concentrated in the remaining Adana vilayet, we end up with a very defensible and prosperous state. Since the rump Cilicia will be a very small state , it will need a foreign protector and thus it can be a dream protectorate: both weak and rich in resources.

Cilicia can be used by Britain or France to promote armenian nationalism inside the Russian Empire or Soviet Union. It can even become a greek satelite by providing a bridgehead in the Middle East and a thorn in Turkey's soft underbelly.

 

[Godwin]

Obligatory Cilician Armenia reddit post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginarymaps/comments/fr6n36

 

[Neoteros]

How many Armenians were there in 1920 anyway? Not a majority for sure.

 

[Lascaris]

How many Armenians were there in 1920 anyway? Not a majority for sure.

A bit over 119,000 were there in 1914. Up to 30,000 more had been massacred at Adana in 1909. A very sizable minority, I'm inclined to take Karpat's number of about 443,000 Muslims in 1914 as reasonable since it matches with the numbers you'd get if you'd run backwards from the 1927 Turkish census, the first one that was conducted in a modern manner.

 

[formion]

A bit over 119,000 were there in 1914. Up to 30,000 more had been massacred at Adana in 1909. A very sizable minority, I'm inclined to take Karpat's number of about 443,000 Muslims in 1914 as reasonable since it matches with the numbers you'd get if you'd run backwards from the 1927 Turkish census, the first one that was conducted in a modern manner.

To be more specific, I think the Silifke/Icel sanjak had very very few christians, that's why I excluded it from an Armenian Cilicia. In the 1893 census there were 100,000 muslims in Icel, so by 1914 there would have been a bit more. The sanjak was secluded from the rest of the vilayet. That leaves about 300,000 muslims in the rest of the vilayet.

However, when we are talking about the muslim population in the rest of Cilicia, there is a factor we should take into account: transhumance. A significant part of the muslim population was not sedentary but nomadic.

To quote this thesis https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/761497

The demographic and political predominance of nomadic pastoralists in the Cilicia region
as of the nineteenth century is difficult to quantify and vulnerable to exaggeration. If the only comprehensive figures available, the estimates of a French orientalist named Victor Langlois, are reliable, about 70% of the tribal households in the Adana province, which accounted for a little over half of the population, were “nomadic.” This means that roughly 38% of the Adana province’s population was classified by Langlois as nomads. While most of the population of the region engaged in some form of vertical transhumance regardless of their economic livelihood, what separated these nomadic pastoralists from the rest of these communities was the distance of their migrations, their lack of fixed villages, and the relative absence of agriculture in the regions they dominated. While villagers, townsfolk, and pastoralists in the western half of the province migrated to relatively nearby yaylas during the summer, communities such as the Afşars, who
according to Langlois comprised roughly 3,000 households or “tents,” traveled between
Çukurova in the winter to Uzunyayla (more below) in the Taurus Mountains some 300 km away during the summer.This meant that communities such as the Afşars, which were much larger than most of the villages in the area, would cross into other provinces during the course of their migrations, bringing with them some 40,000 sheep and many other animals.

As the decades passed, the ottoman authorities tried to settle the nomads, but it seems that a significant part of the muslim population continued its nomadic way of life. Moreover, Cilicia was a traditional settler destination for muhacirs from the Russian Empire. Moreover, then the cotton boom took place, Cilicia used to attract tens of thousands of seasonal workers. To quote the above source:

These workers entered the region from every direction. During the 1880s, roughly 40% came from the Nusayri Arab villages of Çukurova and the littoral of Northern Syria as far south as Lattakia. The rest came from Anatolia. Villagers from around Kayseri, the Armenian towns of the Taurus Mountains, and inland regions further east like Harput and even Erzurum came seeking fortune in the fertile plains of Çukurova. Kurdish and Assyrian migrant workers from Mardin, Diyarbakir, Van, Mosul, and even the other side of the border with Iran were added to this diverse mélange of

So, I think if we exclude the muslim Icel/Silifke Sanjak, the sedentary population of the rest of Cilicia may have been majority christian. The earlier we go, with fewer nomadic tribes and muhacirs settled, the greater the percentage of the christian sedentary population is. For example, in the decade after 1898, 20,000 Muslim Cretans were settled in Adana.

In conclusion, I believe that in 1900, the 4 easternmost sanjaks of Adana vilayet had a christian majority sedentary population. If we add the 189,000 Armenians of the Aleppo vilayet, we get a potential armenian homeland.

 

[mapuche lautarino]

2 Armenian countries

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Lol I mentioned like a month ago having a Pontic Greek state supported heavily by a hypothetical free Armenia or Russia, and a Cilician Armenian state supported heavily by the Greeks. A lot of logical paths have been laid out here for how Cillia, and I think an Armenia Cilicia makes a lot of sense for various European powers. Cilicia being the British version of Lebanon (if the French do that again this time) is very intriguing. I could see that happening once the British decide the ottomans aren’t worth the effort anymore

 

[Duke of Orlando]

I always feel bad double posting but I was thinking about all of this and I wanted to discuss how insane this Middle East might appear from our time line with a greater Greece and a couple of the other things we’ve suggested and/or thought up. So for the sake of the exercise Greece controls the entire Anatolian Aegean coastline. Greece also has Cyprus. We have Turkey squished between it and the two Armenia’s, plus possibly a Pontic Greek Russian puppet because the Pontic Greeks deserve something nice. Possibly the Kurds are an independent state. Lebanon. Maybe some sort of Alawite and Christian state based around Aleppo and Antioch. Egyptian Palastine. And possibly Greek Cyrenaica for the lols. It’s glorious in its religious diversity and millennium long grudges. I dub it Balkan’s 2: Middle Eastern Boogaloo.

Jokes aside it’s an amazing Middle East to consider when you look at the current day with its lines drawn on a map with no real understanding of the situation on the ground is. I don’t know wether it would be a shining beacon of diversity or an absolute mess. Maybe both. Probably both. I don’t expect all, or even most of this to necessarily happen. But it’s honestly not that out of the question which is amazing in and of itself. Not after this war obviously but eventually. It’s a testament to how good this timeline is and how big the butterflies could be from the small tweaks that were made. I can’t wait for the next update.

 

[HerodotosofBerlin]

I

I always feel bad double posting but I was thinking about all of this and I wanted to discuss how insane this Middle East might appear from our time line with a greater Greece and a couple of the other things we’ve suggested and/or thought up. So for the sake of the exercise Greece controls the entire Anatolian Aegean coastline. Greece also has Cyprus. We have Turkey squished between it and the two Armenia’s, plus possibly a Pontic Greek Russian puppet because the Pontic Greeks deserve something nice. Possibly the Kurds are an independent state. Lebanon. Maybe some sort of Alawite and Christian state based around Aleppo and Antioch. Egyptian Palastine. And possibly Greek Cyrenaica for the lols. It’s glorious in its religious diversity and millennium long grudges. I dub it Balkan’s 2: Middle Eastern Boogaloo.

Jokes aside it’s an amazing Middle East to consider when you look at the current day with its lines drawn on a map with no real understanding of the situation on the ground is. I don’t know wether it would be a shining beacon of diversity or an absolute mess. Maybe both. Probably both. I don’t expect all, or even most of this to necessarily happen. But it’s honestly not that out of the question which is amazing in and of itself. Not after this war obviously but eventually. It’s a testament to how good this timeline is and how big the butterflies could be from the small tweaks that were made. I can’t wait for the next update.

Im looking forward to that

 

[danybhoy]

I think the more land Russia or an Armenian state wins from the Ottomans the less Greece will be able to get in Asia Minor due to all the Muhajirs that will move around once Ottomans start losing territory

 

[Asriellian]

I always feel bad double posting but I was thinking about all of this and I wanted to discuss how insane this Middle East might appear from our time line with a greater Greece and a couple of the other things we’ve suggested and/or thought up. So for the sake of the exercise Greece controls the entire Anatolian Aegean coastline. Greece also has Cyprus. We have Turkey squished between it and the two Armenia’s, plus possibly a Pontic Greek Russian puppet because the Pontic Greeks deserve something nice. Possibly the Kurds are an independent state. Lebanon. Maybe some sort of Alawite and Christian state based around Aleppo and Antioch. Egyptian Palastine. And possibly Greek Cyrenaica for the lols. It’s glorious in its religious diversity and millennium long grudges. I dub it Balkan’s 2: Middle Eastern Boogaloo.

We've had one Balkans yes, but what about second Balkans?
Honestly all that religious and cultural diversity within several separate states would be very interesting

 

[DracoLazarus]

We've had one Balkans yes, but what about second Balkans?
Honestly all that religious and cultural diversity within several separate states would be very interesting

It's still the Balkans. Just on the other side of the Straits.

 

[Damian0358]

It’s glorious in its religious diversity and millennium long grudges. I dub it Balkan’s 2: Middle Eastern Boogaloo.

We've had one Balkans yes, but what about second Balkans?
Honestly all that religious and cultural diversity within several separate states would be very interesting

It's still the Balkans. Just on the other side of the Straits.

Whilst I'm not one to want to associate the Balkans with this kind of stuff, mainly because it's horribly stereotypical at this point, now would probably be a good time to quote Hermann Alexander Graf von Keyserling, from his 1928 publication, Europe:

"If the Balkans did not exist, they had to be invented."

 

[Gman]

Hey Earl Marshal, could I ask when the next update will be released? I'm looking forward to seeing how events progress in the timeline.