Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline

[Earl Marshal]

Let's hope it turns out better long term for both them and the Circassians. Being caught between great power politics in desirable land is always going to suck, but it wouldn't be overly difficult to have a more positive outcome than OTL

That is certainly my intention provided it makes sense from a narrative sense. By nature of Russia doing better in this timeline's War, more Armenians will fall under Russian occupation than OTL, which may or may not be a good thing for them. The Circassians are probably headed to a similar fate ITTL, as a victorious Russia is probably not inclined to show them mercy, especially after the recent conflict between them and Russia. That said, the details and extent of their Genocide will be different ITTL, so it may not be as bad as OTL.

Earl..will Florence nightingale make an appearance in the war? And if so will she stop at Piraeus and maybe influence a young Princess or a Queen and maybe we will see an earlier evangelismos school of nursing ..just saying

Mary Seacole could also make an appearance as well, as she also served as a nurse in the Crimean War IOTL.

Florence Nightingale and Mary Seacole will definitely appear in some capacity and they may show up in Greece briefly having some influence on young Princess Katherine.

It is a good idea

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a3/Proposed_Armenian_state_in_Asia_Minor.png?1601497271026

That's certainly ambitious, but incredibly unlikely at this point in time. Armenia will have more territory ITTL, but it definitely won't be that big as they don't have the population to control that territory without a whole lot of ethnic cleansing.

While that is a beautiful Armenia, I think it would have to take a major genocide of turks for such a state to exist. In fact I can't imagine there being enough Armenians in that state to defend those borders even if the turks were totally "dealt with". Greece would love to have such a giant Armenia though, I bet they could work out some deals regarding the Turkish rump state(really hoping it doesn't get so bad that there is no Turkish state), and Pontic greeks could have their rights guaranteed and stuff.

Realistically I can't see such an Armenia existing. The best they can hope for is continued Russian success in war, and them being made into a Russian proxy state, that basically acts as their enforcer in the near east. Later improving relations with the Greeks, and combined being able to take down the turks on two fronts. The limits of such a state would probably resemble the Classical Armenian kingdom. I don't see a way for lower Armenia to join that, especially as it would limit the turks to just the central Anatolian plateau and I'm not sure if that is a viable state when there is a hostile Greece on one side and a hostile Armenia on the other.

I completely agree.

Honestly, I think I would be happy for them as long as they are able to have Ani.

The neglect of Ani over the years has been an absolute tragedy. Currently, its in Russian hands, having been ceded after the war in 1829 alongside Kars. While I can't say where exactly the border for Armenia will be at the end of this timeline, Ani will definitely be part of Armenia.

The previously mentioned map is certainly ASB, without a massive russian victory where St Petersburg decides that Cilicia offers the best warm port.

First of all, we might never have an independent Armenia as the fall of the Russian Empire is by no means certain. There may be a Russian Federation that includes Armenia as a federal republic.

What I find intriguing is having two Armenias: a russian-ruled one in the Armenian Highlands and a Cilician Armenia under the influence of western powers. If we consider the OTL Caucasus Front of the Crimean War and we add the facts that Kars is already russian and Erzerum is in danger, then it is quite possible that the Russians will get Wilsonian Armenia by the end of the Great Eurasian War. The OTL Ottoman Army of the Caucasus was really that incompetent and they had faced only a fraction of TTL russian forces. The Russians now hold all the advantages. For the Ottomans, Caucasus is a side show at best, since a potential collapse of the Balkan Front will put Constantinople in mortal danger.

Lastly, it is the pre-Suez Canal era, so Trabzon serves most of the persian trade. With Persia being a more relevant power than OTL, control of Trabzon must be relatively high in russian priorities.

I hadn't considered having two Armenia's ITTL, although it would certainly make for an interesting concept seeing how the two states diverge and evolve separate from one another. That being said, it would be quite a ways away if it happens at all.

While the Ottomans are in for a rough time ahead of them, I wasn't planning on destroying them in this war and I don't think that the other Powers of Europe would abide by a massive Russian expansion at Ottoman expense. Now if Russian diplomats worked wonders on behalf of the Tsar, then maybe they could convince some countries by offering them pieces of the Ottoman pie. Even then, I have my doubts that Russia would take all the lands attributed to Wilsonian Armenia, while it will definitely take some sanjaks in Eastern Anatolia, I don't think it would take all of that territory. Or maybe it would, I'm open suggestions on this matter.

I always feel bad double posting but I was thinking about all of this and I wanted to discuss how insane this Middle East might appear from our time line with a greater Greece and a couple of the other things we’ve suggested and/or thought up. So for the sake of the exercise Greece controls the entire Anatolian Aegean coastline. Greece also has Cyprus. We have Turkey squished between it and the two Armenia’s, plus possibly a Pontic Greek Russian puppet because the Pontic Greeks deserve something nice. Possibly the Kurds are an independent state. Lebanon. Maybe some sort of Alawite and Christian state based around Aleppo and Antioch. Egyptian Palastine. And possibly Greek Cyrenaica for the lols. It’s glorious in its religious diversity and millennium long grudges. I dub it Balkan’s 2: Middle Eastern Boogaloo.

Jokes aside it’s an amazing Middle East to consider when you look at the current day with its lines drawn on a map with no real understanding of the situation on the ground is. I don’t know wether it would be a shining beacon of diversity or an absolute mess. Maybe both. Probably both. I don’t expect all, or even most of this to necessarily happen. But it’s honestly not that out of the question which is amazing in and of itself. Not after this war obviously but eventually. It’s a testament to how good this timeline is and how big the butterflies could be from the small tweaks that were made. I can’t wait for the next update.

This is really good, I may end up borrowing a few of these ideas.

Hey Earl Marshal, could I ask when the next update will be released? I'm looking forward to seeing how events progress in the timeline.

I'd like to say tomorrow, but I've been really unproductive the last few days with regards to writing, but it should be ready soon.

 

[mapuche lautarino]

Greece could take over Libya in the future, and if possible chad.
and perhaps an early colonization Christianized and westernized those areas
Ethiopian protectorate,
maybe it's too much

 

[emperor joe]

Greece could take over Libya in the future, and if possible chad.
and perhaps an early colonization Christianized and westernized those areas
Ethiopian protectorate,
maybe it's too much

It's too much... I don't think that greece should spend it's limited resources on colonies and instead focus on it's mainland...

 

[Gman]

That is certainly my intention provided it makes sense from a narrative sense. By nature of Russia doing better in this timeline's War, more Armenians will fall under Russian occupation than OTL, which may or may not be a good thing for them. The Circassians are probably headed to a similar fate ITTL, as a victorious Russia is probably not inclined to show them mercy, especially after the recent conflict between them and Russia. That said, the details and extent of their Genocide will be different ITTL, so it may not be as bad as OTL.



Florence Nightingale and Mary Seacole will definitely appear in some capacity and they may show up in Greece briefly having some influence on young Princess Katherine.


That's certainly ambitious, but incredibly unlikely at this point in time. Armenia will have more territory ITTL, but it definitely won't be that big as they don't have the population to control that territory without a whole lot of ethnic cleansing.



I completely agree.


The neglect of Ani over the years has been an absolute tragedy. Currently, its in Russian hands, having been ceded after the war in 1829 alongside Kars. While I can't say where exactly the border for Armenia will be at the end of this timeline, Ani will definitely be part of Armenia.


I hadn't considered having two Armenia's ITTL, although it would certainly make for an interesting concept seeing how the two states diverge and evolve separate from one another. That being said, it would be quite a ways away if it happens at all.

While the Ottomans are in for a rough time ahead of them, I wasn't planning on destroying them in this war and I don't think that the other Powers of Europe would abide by a massive Russian expansion at Ottoman expense. Now if Russian diplomats worked wonders on behalf of the Tsar, then maybe they could convince some countries by offering them pieces of the Ottoman pie. Even then, I have my doubts that Russia would take all the lands attributed to Wilsonian Armenia, while it will definitely take some sanjaks in Eastern Anatolia, I don't think it would take all of that territory. Or maybe it would, I'm open suggestions on this matter.


This is really good, I may end up borrowing a few of these ideas.


I'd like to say tomorrow, but I've been really unproductive the last few days with regards to writing, but it should be ready soon.

Fantastic

 

[Zealot]

Even then, I have my doubts that Russia would take all the lands attributed to Wilsonian Armenia, while it will definitely take some sanjaks in Eastern Anatolia, I don't think it would take all of that territory. Or maybe it would, I'm open suggestions on this matter

Perhaps an Armenian revolt around Van, like that which happened OTL in WWI could make the Russians divert some military to assist them. In the aftermath, and considering that ITTL Caucasus campaign there would be no need of a costly siege and takeover of Kars stronghold already in their hands, the Russians would be able to end up controlling large swaths of Wilsonian Armenia (Erzurum, Alashkert valley, lake Van shores), and packing them with Armenians fleeing from Ottoman reprisals.

OTOH, further Russian gains in Eastern Anatolia could raise the alarms in Whitehall: there is no Suez Canal yet, and the prospect of a Trabzon-Persia trade route solely in Russian hands would probably trigger some kind of intervention in the Peace Conference.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

It's too much... I don't think that greece should spend it's limited resources on colonies and instead focus on it's mainland...

I think there’s really four realistic options when it comes to Colonization for Greece.

1. Don’t (in the traditional sense). Save resources, money, and population for the repopulation (Colonization) of the homeland and eventually Anatolia. This has obvious benefits and uses but also ignores all the potential outside resources that could be brought home. There’s also the “pride” issue. While it hasn’t popped up so far I can’t help but wonder if there might be a growing movement in Greece to gain a colony just to show that they don’t need the great powers to do everything for them.

2. Costal Cyrenaica. This is likely the easiest colony for Greece to build up and the one that is likely to show the best returns in the short run for the investment. Ignore the desert full of angry Muslim nomads and focus on the coastal cities with tax payers that people might want to actually move to. We know that there’s oil and why it’s worth it. As far as I know the Greeks and Europe in general don’t. So the desert just seems like extra work for little return. Market it as open to Christians of any denomination and you can likely get a steady stream of minorities to the area from around the Middle East and Europe. Send some Greek teachers to the areas with big immigrant populations and you can likely get some sort of Greek speaking plurality at some point given enough time. This is the minimalist approach to such a colony as well so more resources are saved for the stuff in 1. Conceivable you could ship a lot of displaced Greeks here as well.

3. All of Cyrenaica. See above but now with aggressive nomadic tribes, eventual oil wealth, and a more difficult time getting that Greek plurality without lots of native Greeks moving here as well.

4. Cyrenaica and Pacific Island(s). Mostly a coaling station for the merchant marine and no real settlements or economic use. A show colony and one of those places on a map that you wonder why it is still colonized until you google it and realize it’s population consists entirely of Dave the Zoologist and the weird fat parrots he studies. Look up the kakapo if you’re like Dave and find that idea interesting.

Bonus: the desolation islands. Because the idea of someone forcing a settler colony on them amuses me and I mentioned it jokingly in the past lmao. If not the Greeks maybe some other poor group of people late to the colonial game. Like The Cilician desolation islands lmao. Come on Earl Marshall make that dream happen.

Oh and feel free to borrow and adapt any of the things I say Earl Marshal. I can’t claim credit for all of that list in my other comment since it was more a synthesis of comments I’ve read but I doubt anyone would have a problem with you borrowing a concept and doing whatever you want with it.

 

[Flosgon78]

Hey Earl Marshal, could I ask when the next update will be released? I'm looking forward to seeing how events progress in the timeline.

For once, it wasn't me who asked , but can't wait to reed the next part as you do !

 

[formion]

Even then, I have my doubts that Russia would take all the lands attributed to Wilsonian Armenia, while it will definitely take some sanjaks in Eastern Anatolia, I don't think it would take all of that territory. Or maybe it would, I'm open suggestions on this matter.

Well, it certainly doesn't need to be the whole Wilsonian Armenia, that's for sure. After all, the Russians don't fight to liberate armenian homelands but to advance their own strategic agenda.

My main argument is that the only significant target in 1850s Armenian Highlands is the control of the Trabzon-Tabriz caravan route, as it corners the persian trade and gives Russia an advantageous position in the Great Game. The fact that Trabzon and Gumushane were famous at the time for their copper and lead-silver mines is also a plus, even though a much more secondary reason for annexation.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/162063?seq=1

So, lets zoom in to the detailed map below to pinpoint the route.

http://ontheworldmap.com/turkey/large-detailed-physical-map-of-turkey.jpg

As I understand, the route is along this line: Trabzon-Gumushane- Bayburt-Erzurum- Agri-Dogubayazit.

The caravan route corresponds with the Erzurum vilayet and the eastern half of the Trabzon vilayet. So, all the strategic targets are located in the northern 2/3 of Wilsonian Armenia, with the parts of Van and Bitlis vilayets remaining outside of this region.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b4/Boundary_between_Turkey_and_Armenia_as_determined_by_Woodrow_Wilson_1920.jpg/1024px-Boundary_between_Turkey_and_Armenia_as_determined_by_Woodrow_Wilson_1920.jpg

 

[Gman]

I wonder how large Greece will get in the future? I think that Macedonia and Thrace (definitely West. maybe East) will be fair game. As for other territorial acquisitions, Cyprus might be up and some territory in western Anatolia (just like Greece got Smyrna OTL from 1920-1923), although i don't know if getting Cappadocia, Pontus etc. will be viable due to either the Greek population being too small, or those areas having a majority Turkish, Armenian etc. population.
As others have theorised, if Greece decides to engage in some colonialism then Cyrenaica and/or other parts of Libya might be viable.

 

[mapuche lautarino]

Greece colonize parts of the interior of Anatolia

 

[cmakk1012]

So for the sake of the exercise Greece controls the entire Anatolian Aegean coastline. Greece also has Cyprus. We have Turkey squished between it and the two Armenia’s, plus possibly a Pontic Greek Russian puppet because the Pontic Greeks deserve something nice. Possibly the Kurds are an independent state. Lebanon. Maybe some sort of Alawite and Christian state based around Aleppo and Antioch. Egyptian Palastine. And possibly Greek Cyrenaica for the lols. It’s glorious in its religious diversity and millennium long grudges. I dub it Balkan’s 2: Middle Eastern Boogaloo.

That would be a Turkish revanchist nightmare, an OTL Lebanon on steroids, so yes the Balkan analogies are very, very apt. The trouble is that the two Armenias will be very likely to find themselves with Turkish majorities in big parts of their territories because the Armenian population just isn’t that large (and I mean the 19th century population, not referring to the post-genocide situation); same with an Antiochene Christian state, and possibly with the Kurdish state as well depending on its borders.

 

[danybhoy]

If Greece wants land on Anatolia it would have to deal with a very revanchist Turkey. Thankfully for Greece the population gap between them has not dramatically increased yet. In order for Megali idea to be realized it might require screwing Turkey even more( A Greek Cyprus, A greater Armenia which is Armenian majority, Syrian Hatay and the part of Eastern Turkey not going to Armenia being part of an independent Kurdistan, Georgia and Arab states). It might result in Turkey being overpopulated from all the Muhacirs though

 

[formion]

That would be a Turkish revanchist nightmare, an OTL Lebanon on steroids, so yes the Balkan analogies are very, very apt. The trouble is that the two Armenias will be very likely to find themselves with Turkish majorities in big parts of their territories because the Armenian population just isn’t that large (and I mean the 19th century population, not referring to the post-genocide situation); same with an Antiochene Christian state, and possibly with the Kurdish state as well depending on its borders.

Indeed the Balkan analogies would be apt. In the end though, there will be relatively homogenous populations, as is with the Balkans now (sans Bosnia). Mutual exchange of populations sounds like a possibility. Otherwise, in the tapestry of ottoman populations we end up with some outright getting liquidated (E.g. Armenians) and others denied statehood or having an ethnic identity (e.g. Kurds). In any case, interesting times ahead.

 

[emperor joe]

Greece colonize parts of the interior of Anatolia

I think it's better for greece to use the extra pop to re-enforce the Greek population in the liberated provinces in the future...for example let's say greece by 1890 takes macedonia and western Thrace..the "old" greece could have a population of 4 million it could resettle some of the landless greeks in the new territories in the lands left vacant by the Muslims and Bulgarians and in this way solves three problems. One. It immediately increases the greek population in the new territories and second it limits the agricultural production fallout( i mean the land in not going to be plowed by it's self) and last it can be used and relief valve for the landless greeks who can't find work in the cities lessing the social problems that arise for situations like this

 

[Bronze]

...it can be used and relief valve for the landless Greeks who can't find work in the cities, lessing the social problems that arise for situations like this.

See, the problem with this idea is that the Greek government will have to work hard to ensure that the small farmers whom they will resettle there stay in the fields, and not, say, be outcompeted by urban landlords with mechanized agricultural processes.
I don't know very much about Greek history, society or economy in this era, but I will say that in my opinion, making this idea work will require too much government oversight to be viable.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

I don’t think the populations for most of these ethnic and religious minority states are unsustainable or would be minorities in their own country yet. That’s the key word. Currently there are large nomadic settler populations that haven’t settled down as someone else mentioned. And no one has been targeted for extermination. Many of these areas had other minorities who could also be co-opted into the government. Like the Alawite And Christian State around Aleppo and Antioch I mentioned. They could even try to get Druze support.

So right now these states are all quite possible. That said post war we’re probably going to see who the unlucky minorities of TTL are. My personal bets are the Assyrians and Bulgarians but I’m by no means sure of that. There could be more or conceivably even none

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

I don’t think the populations for most of these ethnic and religious minority states are unsustainable or would be minorities in their own country yet. That’s the key word. Currently there are large nomadic settler populations that haven’t settled down as someone else mentioned. And no one has been targeted for extermination. Many of these areas had other minorities who could also be co-opted into the government. Like the Alawite And Christian State around Aleppo and Antioch I mentioned. They could even try to get Druze support.

So right now these states are all quite possible. That said post war we’re probably going to see who the unlucky minorities of TTL are. My personal bets are the Assyrians and Bulgarians but I’m by no means sure of that. There could be more or conceivably even none

While I agree that some of these states mentioned are possible, I still kinda feel like it's a case of "some is more possible than others" if you ask me.

 

[danybhoy]

Would a joint Christian and Alawite State comprising of Lebanon, Hatay and Coastal Syria be feasible if combined with population transfer of Arab and Assyrian Christians in rest of Syria and Iraq?

 

[Duke of Orlando]

While I agree that some of these states mentioned are possible, I still kinda feel like it's a case of "some is more possible than others" if you ask me.

Oh absolutely. I’ll be the first to admit my idea of a Pontic Greek state is a bit of a stretch without a lot of Russian support. Cilicia would need a similarly powerful outside benefactor at first. I just like to consider interesting ideas.

 

[danybhoy]

Armenia would be lucky to get Diyarbakir let alone Cilicia