Peninsular War: A Spanish victory at Tudela?

[Vinization]

After the great Spanish victory at Bailén, which resulted in the surrender of almost 20.000 French troops and the collapse of their position in the Iberian Peninsula, Napoleon launched a massive offensive involving more than 250.000 soldiers. The Spanish army, vastly outnumbered on the conventional level, buckled under the pressure and allowed the French to retake Madrid and attack Zaragoza, which fell to the invaders after a brutal three month siege.

One of the decisive engagements of this campaign was the Battle of Tudela, in which the Spanish troops, despite outnumbering their enemies in this particular engagement, were caught out of position and defeated. What if they were in a better defensive position (according to Wikipedia there was a gap in their line that wasn't closed in time for the battle) and won as a result? While I doubt Napoleon can be kept away from Madrid forever (the French army wasn't worn down to that degree yet), could keeping it under the rebel junta's control for an extra few months change things down the line? Could the second siege of Zaragoza be avoided or won ITTL?

 

[Book addict]

After the great Spanish victory at Bailén, which resulted in the surrender of almost 20.000 French troops and the collapse of their position in the Iberian Peninsula, Napoleon launched a massive offensive involving more than 250.000 soldiers. The Spanish army, vastly outnumbered on the conventional level, buckled under the pressure and allowed the French to retake Madrid and attack Zaragoza, which fell to the invaders after a brutal three month siege.

One of the decisive engagements of this campaign was the Battle of Tudela, in which the Spanish troops, despite outnumbering their enemies in this particular engagement, were caught out of position and defeated. What if they were in a better defensive position (according to Wikipedia there was a gap in their line that wasn't closed in time for the battle) and won as a result? While I doubt Napoleon can be kept away from Madrid forever (the French army wasn't worn down to that degree yet), could keeping it under the rebel junta's control for an extra few months change things down the line? Could the second siege of Zaragoza be avoided or won ITTL?

Austria was already convinced that the French struggle in Spain in OTL was enough to start a 5th coalition. If the Spanish succeed at Tudela, then the French would have a greater struggle earlier on; this might be enough to convince Prussia to join the 5th coalition. Whether Russia aids Napoleon's eastern flank in such a conflict is in doubt.

As for Spain itself, I'm less sure of what might happen. A Spanish victory would be ideal for the British, led by sir John Moore: perhaps they would be able to defeat Soult's isolated corps, and then force the French to retreat a second time from Spain. Maybe this leads to a negotiated peace, where Napoleon withdraws on the condition that a weak king or puppet is on the throne, such as the 9 year old Charles-Louis of Bourbon-Parma

 

[Vinization]

Austria was already convinced that the French struggle in Spain in OTL was enough to start a 5th coalition. If the Spanish succeed at Tudela, then the French would have a greater struggle earlier on; this might be enough to convince Prussia to join the 5th coalition. Whether Russia aids Napoleon's eastern flank in such a conflict is in doubt.

I think Prussia would need a few more months to recover before joining in, given how badly Napoleon trashed them, but even IOTL Austria put up a pretty good fight IIRC, which means they can probably hold on for long enough. As for Russia, my money is on them sitting back and watching, then pouncing on the losing side.

As for Spain itself, I'm less sure of what might happen. A Spanish victory would be ideal for the British, led by sir John Moore: perhaps they would be able to defeat Soult's isolated corps, and then force the French to retreat a second time from Spain. Maybe this leads to a negotiated peace, where Napoleon withdraws on the condition that a weak king or puppet is on the throne, such as the 9 year old Charles-Louis of Bourbon-Parma

Would Nappy really settle for that, though? After all, he didn't withdraw from Spain even after the catastrophe in Russia.