OTL Election maps resources thread

Discussion in 'Alternate History Maps and Graphics' started by Thande, Sep 10, 2011.

  1. Reagent Cartography's Reactionary

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    Who led the GOP ticket in Missouri in 2016?
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    Red: Donald Trump (President)
    Orange: Mike Parsons (Lieutenant Governor)
    Yellow: Eric Schmitt (State Treasurer)
    Green: Jay Ashcroft (Secretary of State)
    Blue: Josh Hawley (Attorney General); led statewide


    Some notes on this:
    -Defining "led the ticket" as getting the best % of the vote in their respective race
    -Trump led the ticket in the least educated, most rural, and poorest areas of the state.
    -For 12 years, Mike Parsons was the sheriff of the county he led the ticket in (Polk County)
    -The lone county Schmitt led the ticket in is Cole County, where the State Capital is located
    -There doesn't appear to be any particular rhyme or reason to the counties Ashcroft lead in, since he's from the opposite side of the state to those areas, and there's no unifying demographic trait.
    -Hawley led the ticket in the wealthiest and most educated areas, as well as in Missouri's bible belt (his victory is probably a more "traditional" GOP map, that someone like Rubio would have gotten if the nominee). This may have relevance in 2018, since Hawley is running for Senate, and College Educated Whites and Evangelicals will be two very critical groups to watch in Missouri.
     
  2. Thande a special man who knows these things Donor

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    Interesting idea. Would it be different if you based it on raw number of votes rather than %?
     
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  3. Utgard96 basically a load of twaddle about freedom

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    Another quickie: the last Danish elections held under FPTP, in 1913. A lot of these constituencies survived into the PR era as nomination districts, a virtually-unique feature of Danish PR that forces parties to nominate local candidates for different parts of a given constituency.

    This election resulted in the ouster of Council President Klaus Berntsen's right-wing Venstre government (Denmark being Denmark), in power since the previous elections in 1910, and its replacement with a Radical government under Carl Theodor Zahle. The Radicals were actually only the third party in this election, but Zahle was nevertheless given the nod with the passive support of Thorvald Stauning's Social Democrats. He would carry on as Council President (and then Prime Minister, after the 1915 constitution changed the title) until 1920, serving through the First World War and the subsequent cession of Northern Schleswig (referred to consistently as de sønderjyske landsdele, "the South Jutland provinces", so as not to imply that this was all of South Jutland, or for that matter the only "Danish" part of it).

    Copenhagen did have thirteen FPTP constituencies, it's just that I can't find their boundaries.

    val-dk-1913.png
     
  4. Oryxslayer Electoral Calculator

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2017
    The Japanese House of Representatives Election that took place on the previous Sunday. The election takes place in 289 FPTP constituency seats and 176 proportional block seats. This system was put into place in the 90s as a way of breaking up the Liberal Democratic (henceforth LDP) prefecture patron-client networks under SNTV. That said, Japan does not have any laws in place regarding redistricting, with redistricting taking place when a bill passes the diet. This has famously led to cases where seats are horribly apportioned, due to outdated lines. Most recently, in 2013, five districts were cut, and then 10 more in 2016. After the 2020 census a complete redistricting has been ordered.

    The 2017 election can perhaps be summarized as 'Much ado about Nothing.' LDP PM Shinzo Abe called the election ahead of the scheduled one in 2018 largely due to the beneficial political environment. His approvals were riding high off of a cabinet reshuffling, there was a general 'rally around the flag' effect from the North Korea crisis, potential rival Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike had just been elected in 2016 and had little time to build a national party, and the opposition Democratic Party (DP) was in crisis. There was a high chance he would return the 2/3s majority LDP-KP (Komeito Party, eternal partner of LDP) to government.

    From there though things began to unravel. Abe's approvals turned downwards as his call for new elections appeared as nothing more then a political poly. Koike would form the Hope Party (HP) hours before writ for elections was published, and would receive the endorsements of several prominent DP MPs along with hints of cooperation from fellow 'Third Pole' governors. With the news media fawning over the continued rise of Koike, this only furthered the fractured within the DP. Not long into the campaign, the party voted to dissolve itself and merge in HP, in an instant making the election a actual competition. For a period of time, Abe's decision to call the election looked to be the biggest mistake since Theresa May's failing call. Except, Koike made a mistake. Only many HP issues she was fine with being a big tent party and welcoming in DP members - except on constitutional changes. She refused to renominate a group of left-leaning DP MPs due to their opposition to military constitutional reform. These MPs went on to form the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP).

    Now, there was still a good chance at opposition success. Despite CDP and HP divisions, they were still the opposition. In much of the county, the two parties, and the handful of smaller parties agreed to split up seats. In many of the FPTP seats, it was LDP/KP vs HP/CDP/Regional vs JCP (Communists), perhaps the best case for the opposition. Instead of a division of opposition votes, the FPTP seats would have an opposition candidate best fitting the region. Crucially, one of the few places agreements like this were not in place was Tokyo, Koike's home base. Polling up to the last week showed HP still with a significant opposition role, with the opposition looking to have successfully not cut up their vote-share.

    Then came the last week. Polling in the final week of the election showed a CDP surge, driven by DP voters returning to their natural roots. The opposition surge in Tokyo transferred cleanly towards the left, swinging many potential HP gains to the LDP and a few to the CDP. A tropical storm would crash into the islands The weekend of the election plummeting turnout in the south. Only in the north did the medium level turnout predicted by polls come to pass. In Japan, the opposition voters need a prodding to turn out, the LDP vote tends to be safe. With the storm hitting, many voters took the time to cast early ballots, a rare thing in Japan. However, turnout returned back to baseline, and the opposition vote dropped.

    In the end, Abe got what he wanted - by 3 seats, he returned his 2/3s majority. Despite the twists and turns, the opposition was divided, and their voters failed to turnout.

    [​IMG]

    There is a high number of independents on the map largely due to the politics of the DP/HP/CDP. When the DP collapsed Koike didn't renominate every DP MP, those associated with the failed government of 2009 were refused in order to portray an image of something new. Despite this, Koike, and later the CDP, would gives these candidates a wink and a nod and not run against them. In effect all these independents were opposition MPs who would rejoin a party post election. It is very likely, with the failure of HP, that most return to the CDP, along with many HP MPs from the former DP.

    Credit goes to our own Utgard/Ajrelectionmaps for the basemap, which I adjusted to be more up to date. This is because there are only three FPTP maps of Japan out there to my knowledge: the Wikipedia one which has distortions due to its small size in the South, the Psephos map with 30+ inserts, and Thande's.

    The redone (now with mail ballots) and margin maps for Austria are coming, I simply had a bunch of tests last week and had zero time. Expect them within the week.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2017
  5. IFwanderer Banned

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    Sep 30, 2016
    Question, does anyone here know some tool to make a congress semicircle (I mean the graphics you can see on Wikipedia that show the amount of congressmen/MPs for each party represented as dots in a semicircle shape, like this)? I'm interested in making a couple Argentine politics wikiboxes and I might need to show a larger congress.

    EDIT: Found one. Thanks anyway
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2017
  6. Reagent Cartography's Reactionary

    Joined:
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    Lourenço Marques, República de Sofala
    [​IMG]

    Better results for Trump, but the same underlying trends are still there. The only interesting change is that Ashcroft pulled ahead of Hawley in the more educated parts of the Missouri Bible Belt.
     
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  7. Utgard96 basically a load of twaddle about freedom

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    I guess that's me out of an evening activity then. Oh well, that at least shows it's good enough that I don't feel I have to do it as well.
     
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  8. Utgard96 basically a load of twaddle about freedom

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    Well, that's some f
     
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  9. Oryxslayer Electoral Calculator

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    Apr 25, 2017
    How so? If because the lack basemaps, it tends to be natural that the further you go from the english/latin alphabet, the less western data there is. If because we have the best map, that is also natural. Those who care about quality do the best - QBam regularly produces better results then some professional maps.

    If its because I am using anothers map, well I didn't stick my name on it and claim its my work. If he wants to put it on his site, thats fine with me.

    If its beacuse I confused who owns the deviantart page, well I'm sorry.
     
  10. Alex Richards A mapper I, from near Dar-bai. Donor

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    AJR is a joint affair between Thande, Utgard and mesself, and in this particular case he did the first Japan one.
     
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  11. Oryxslayer Electoral Calculator

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2017
    Ooops didn't realize. Sorry then. Now should correctly quote source.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2017
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  12. Thande a special man who knows these things Donor

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    So this is what it feels like to be @Meadow .

    Excellent work Oryxslayer. Would you be amenable to it being posted on AJR to accompany Utgard's previous one (with you credited by name obviously)?
     
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  13. Zimmerwald1915 Revolutionary Defeatist Banned

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    Can you share with the class?
     
  14. IFwanderer Banned

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  15. Thande a special man who knows these things Donor

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    I like how
    1) they refer to hemicycles as 'arches' which is exactly what they would be called if someone tried to sell it to a sceptical British populace without it sounding foreign;
    2) 'US-style' is literally just 'the same as the regular hemicycle but there are only two party options'.
     
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  16. IFwanderer Banned

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    Sep 30, 2016
    It's probably just to make it quick to use for US elections.
     
  17. Oryxslayer Electoral Calculator

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2017

    Fine by me. :)
     
  18. Harlow Some kinda socialist

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2016
    A couple town maps of dynamic gubernatorial primaries in MA.

    2002 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary:
    Shannon O'Brien (32.52%) -- MA State Treasurer with four generations of ties to the state's political establishment. As treasurer, she saved the state $500 million by refinancing state debt, and also forced transparency of a $2 billion cost overrun on MA's infamous Big Dig project. She was also criticized for losing some of the investments she had made during her tenure as treasurer. O'Brien would go on to lose to Mitt Romney in the general election.
    Robert Reich (24.80%) -- former US Secretary of Labor in President Clinton's first cabinet. Reich ran a progressive campaign as the first Democratic candidate for a major political office to support the legalization of same-sex marriage. He also advocated for abortion rights and an end to capital punishment. Reich's controversial memoir Locked in the Cabinet included fictionalized dialogue about the events of the Clinton administration, and led to a scorned Clinton endorsing the eventual fifth-place candidate, Steven Grossman.
    Tom Birmingham (24.05%) -- President of the MA Senate with impressive fundraising. Credited with the passage of the expansive Education Reform Act of 1993.
    Warren Tolman (17.69%) -- former state representative and senator, and the only candidate who opted in to public funding under the now-defunct Clean Elections law, providing funds to candidates who received no more than $100 in individual donations. Advocated for reform of the Big Dig project and a statewide single-payer program.
    Steve Grossman (0.80%) -- Clinton-endorsed former DNC and AIPAC chair who withdrew before the primary.

    [​IMG]



    2014 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary:
    Martha Coakley (42.4%) -- Attorney General of Massachusetts and unsuccessful nominee for the special 2010 Senate election to replace Ted Kennedy (lost to Scott Brown). During her Senate campaign she was criticized for attending fundraisers in Washington, to which she replied "as opposed to standing outside Fenway Park? In the cold? Shaking hands?" She would go on to lose in the general to Charlie Baker.
    Steve Grossman (36.4%) -- MA Treasurer, former DNC chairman, and former MA Democratic Party chairman. Grossman unsurprisingly received the endorsement of the Massachusetts Democratic Party at its convention, but could not win the primary. Also received endorsements from all five MA LGBT state legislators as well as workers unions and social justice organizations.
    Donald Berwick (21.1%) -- former Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and former President and CEO of the Institute for Healthcare Improvement. Previously criticized for his socialist-leaning views on healthcare and praise of the United Kingdom's NHS. Ran a progressive campaign on healthcare reform and with the goal to end child poverty in the state by 2024. Was a "surprise" in the race after climbing in the polls during the summer of 2014.

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Utgard96 basically a load of twaddle about freedom

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  20. Oryxslayer Electoral Calculator

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    Apr 25, 2017
    Updated Austria Maps with the Postal Ballots

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