Ill lay out a scenario I posited in another thread on a similar topic:
Dessalines is killed in one of the closing battles of the Haitian War of Independence against the forces of Rochambeau.
Henri Christophe takes over and prosecutes the final battles, becoming the architect of independence. Cristophe IMO is the most stable option, as he kept Haiti profitable and militarily secure, even if it was at the expense of Republican virtues. In the following scenario I think I lay out a scenario where Haiti can become stable under Cristophe’s Kingdom and a functioning Republic after.
He assumes control of the new nation, and soon starts to implement his royalist vision, but over the entirety of Haiti. He also avoids the excesses of Dessalines’ regime, prioritizing feudalism, titles to maintain profits and a strong military while avoiding pointless things like the 1804 massacre realizing the bad publicity it would cause. However, his actions at creating a monarchy ignore the creole elite in the south who under Alexander Petion begin conspiring. A few years into his presidency, forces loyal to Alexander Petion attempt to assassinate him at his royal headquarters in Port-Au-Prince. They fail, but not without wounding and partially disabling Henri Christophe. Still, his palace guard comes to his aid and after rioting in the streets of Port-Au-Prince which is eventually quelled, and the conspirators arrested, Cristophe makes the decision to leave port-au-prince and the south and create a new capital in the north where he has the most support. He begins the process of building Cap-Henry into a shining capital with a great palace, while continuing to fund a large army to maintain control of the South with its many rebels. He is able to hold the south despite creoles attempting to form a republic due to him acceding and granting some creole collaborators royal titles in the south, as well as through the enormous profits his feudal administration creates. In 1820 he suffers a stroke, but due to his prior disability does not spiral into depression but clings on for 5 more years keeping Haiti steady in spite of rebellions until he passes in his sleep and his now 21 and better equipped to rule son takes over. Henri II rules from Cap-Henry for almost 20 years from 1825 until 1842, keeping his fathers regime stable while relaxing feudal practices somewhat. Diplomacy is entered with neighboring Spanish Haiti but no invasions are drawn up, with it likely joining Colombia, and providing a friendly continental neighbor which safeguards Haiti well into the future. In 1842, Cap-Henry is still struck by a massive earthquake which leaves the entire monarchy dead. Those republican elements which had been struggling against the monarchy now have no monarchy to struggle against, and a peaceful transition of power occurs. The lords of the island's aristocracy meet with the republicans, and an imperfect democracy is created, which maintains the lords rights while creating popularly elected councils and a presidency. The resulting constitution is not unlike the
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1843_Constitution_of_Haiti but with much of the military elite having died at Cap-Henry, there is no general to seize power, and the parliamentary system established survives.
Jonathas Granville lives longer ITTL, assuming he was assassinated IOTl, and is elected president of the new republic, it having been an institution founded on his principles. This makes Haiti’s first president a true republican. He does not break his term limits and is succeeded by another stalwart republican. Since Granville is a mulatto, his vp will likely be black as will the president who succeeds him, alternating every few terms.
Interestingly, if Granville were inaugurated as president in 1842/43 , he would have been about the same age as George Washington when he was inaugurated, 57. The comparisons would be apt.
