November 1813: Napoleon quickly and unequivocally accepts the Frankfurt terms

[Dave Shoup]

Could an older Napoleon vent his aggression in colonial adventures instead?

I have thought about this. I could see him trying to expand in the Pacific and establish French colonies in parts of Australia or New Zealand that the British do not control.

Surely North Africa would be most likely, if anywhere ... Napoleon was interested in the southern shore of the Med, and the North African states and statelets had no obvious allies and had ticked off most of the European maritime powers (and the US, for that matter) over their policies towards use of the Mediterranean. The other European powers might actually encourage it, simply to keep the French busy and dispose of a nuisance to trade.

 

[Dave Shoup]

They'd do it because they must have realized that the Americans were hanging by a thread, is how I assume the thinking goes.

That seems ... counter intuitive (for the British, I mean), as long as Boney is in Paris.

It would seem akin to the British settling with Hitler's Germany in 1940 after the Fall of France and then attacking Italy...

Haven't read the referenced story, so can't comment.

 

[The Gunslinger]

They'd do it because they must have realized that the Americans were hanging by a thread, is how I assume the thinking goes. And they'd take whatever risks were necessary to neuter the USA forever because Decades of Darkness is really popular around here.

They'd continue the war because they offered peace after the war began and we're harshly rebuffed despite changing the law that America supposedly went to war over and because in the time it took to organize a venue and travel for the participants the 1814 campaign season would be underway.

Britain's demands aren't just spiting the USA to shatter them forever, everything they demanded at Ghent was rooted in history (generally to the American Revolution) and the security of Canada which now been invaded twice since the Revolution. The Old Northwest was, in British eyes, still very much contested, the south shore of the St. Lawrence was vital to the security of Canada, and much of the Maine district was still up for grabs.

It should also be noted that the War of 1812 doesn't really happen in DoD, but an earlier PoD leads to New England seceding around that time.

 

[funnyhat]

Surely North Africa would be most likely, if anywhere ... Napoleon was interested in the southern shore of the Med, and the North African states and statelets had no obvious allies and had ticked off most of the European maritime powers (and the US, for that matter) over their policies towards use of the Mediterranean. The other European powers might actually encourage it, simply to keep the French busy and dispose of a nuisance to trade.

He had demonstrated an interest in overseas expansion when he acquired Louisiana. He could try to expand in North Africa but that could provoke more of a reaction from other European states, who would not want to see France dominate the Mediterranean. In the Pacific (where France did show interest OTL in this era) only the British are likely to seriously contest France expansion. I don't think he would want to challenge any British colonies but try to establish a foothold in places where the British have not yet occupied.

It's worth noting that - historically - Napoleon abdicated, and renounced any claims for his heirs (the first time) on April 6 1814, and that treaty was ratified 13 April. The British reinforced their expeditionary forces in North America and attacked at Plattsburgh (with an 11,000 strong force) in September, 1814; they attacked at Baltimore (with a 5,000-strong force, plus the fleet) the same month. The Treaty of Ghent was signed on Christmas Eve, 1814. The British (with an 8,000-strong force) attacked at New Orleans Jan. 8, 1815. Ghent was fully ratified in February.

Napoleon landed in France from Elba on March 1, 1815. Waterloo was over (essentially) June 18, 1815.

If Napoleon accepted the Frankfurt Terms in November, 1813, the reality is whatever "extra" forces the British can spare for North America - based on what they were able to do historically in 1814, maybe 10,000 or so troops - are still facing crossing the North Atlantic in the winter of 1813-14, waiting for the thaw and spring rainy season to pass, and then (possibly) launch attacks on the northern border, the Atlantic Coast, or the Gulf Coast, or all three - in the summer ... so, maybe rather than launching offensives in September, they may get them underway three or four months earlier, so ... May or June, 1814?

But also, Napoléon accepting the Frankfurt terms in 1813 is not the same as him signing a peace treaty with the British. France making peace with Britain with the Empire intact is different than the OTL 1814 where it was capitulating. There will be a lot of points to negotiate - think of all the overseas colonies the British occupy, and the issue of Antwerp under French control is hard for the British to accept.

I think a more precise comparison is 1801-1802. Negotiations between France and Britain began in November 1801 but the peace was not signed until March.