No World Wars - Situation in East Asia/Japan?

[pinerana]

There are plenty of threads on what happens without world wars but none of them seem to touch the elephant in the room that is East Asia.

Here are a few ideas for PODs you could develop or explore further:

1. Russia wins the Russo-Japanese war and thus Korea stays independent. Does this discourage Japan from being an imperial power or does it encourage them even more to seek other colonies
2. Make Japan less imperialistic and militaristic and content with taking only Korea+Taiwan and maybe Manchuria without trying to invade all of China
3. If Japan invades China make their goals more limited, without them trying to occupy the entire country and without Japan trying to make what's left of China it's exclusive economic zone
4. If there is war between China and Japan make it end in a white peace with neither side losing or gaining anything, but make the widespread destruction caused by modern war seen worldwide so that anti-war sentiment becomes widespread. (thought I admit Japan giving up without being totally defeated is kinda ASB)

 

[pinerana]

Well okay then......

 

[imperial empire]

Options 2, 3, and 4 all depend on option number 1 playing out. This is because the victory over Russia led Japan to do those options, basically it was victory disease. Using option 1 how about this

1) Japan loses the Russo-Japanese war in Korea but in the alt-Portsmouth treaty get Sakhalin. This defeat severely reduces the IJA's influence in politics allowing more political freedom later in the 20's and 30's instead of OTL.

2) Russian influence in Korea makes it into a virtual colony but it keeps its independence. Perhaps Russia loses influence when instead of a civil war starting during WW1 a civil war starts because of the Tsar's incompetent rule. Without being controlled by Russia or Japan and with no American money Korea slowly industrialize's after lots of internal reforms.

3) During the alt-Russian civil war the Russians lose Manchuria to one of the various chinese warlords.

These 3 possible outcomes from your option 1 would have lots of butterflys and would drastically alter the region with more Chinese warlords a united Korea and a powerful but more democratic pre-WW2 then OTL (but less the post WW2) Japan.

 

[pinerana]

Options 2, 3, and 4 all depend on option number 1 playing out. This is because the victory over Russia led Japan to do those options, basically it was victory disease. Using option 1 how about this

1) Japan loses the Russo-Japanese war in Korea but in the alt-Portsmouth treaty get Sakhalin. This defeat severely reduces the IJA's influence in politics allowing more political freedom later in the 20's and 30's instead of OTL.

2) Russian influence in Korea makes it into a virtual colony but it keeps its independence. Perhaps Russia loses influence when instead of a civil war starting during WW1 a civil war starts because of the Tsar's incompetent rule. Without being controlled by Russia or Japan and with no American money Korea slowly industrialize's after lots of internal reforms.

3) During the alt-Russian civil war the Russians lose Manchuria to one of the various chinese warlords.

These 3 possible outcomes from your option 1 would have lots of butterflys and would drastically alter the region with more Chinese warlords a united Korea and a powerful but more democratic pre-WW2 then OTL (but less the post WW2) Japan.

It's a no World Wars timeline thought, so Russia wouldn't have fallen into a civil war.

Also is it really realistic that the defeat in Korea is enough to curtail Japan's imperial ambitions and craving for resources?

 

[DocJamore]

I think the biggest thing to consider is how the Russians and the Japanese respond to the fall of the Qing. When the two opposed each other in the far east, they sort of balanced each other out, but if they decided to bury the hatchet and cooperate it could have major implications. They are the two empires most capable of projecting power into China. However, China as a whole is a to important potential market to the Europeans and the Americans. If either were to push too hard, you can expect a flood of "advisers" and weapons to arm the Chinese.

So they would have to play it smart. If they cooperated they would be exponentially successful in getting concessions out of the Chinese after the Qing fall. Of course, they may refuse to cooperate and try to go it solo. In which case they will be much less successful. Both were interested in Manchuria. The Qing falling gives a golden opportunity to set up a Manchu puppet state in the North as a means towards eventual annexation. After 1904, Russia can't annex all of Manchuria but they could probably stop the Japanese from taking it all for themselves. One outcome of this would be to partition Manchuria with Russia getting the north and Japan the south. Of course they may refuse to cooperate try to block each other, in which case China keeps it.

By the time China would be capable of going on the offensive against either Power, we are getting close to the nuclear era and I fully expect the Russians and the Japanese to be pursuing their own nuclear programs.

 

[Frrf]

Sticking to the idea of no world wars, Japan will maintain its alliance with Britain. As the UK would still be the worlds premier power, I could see Tokyo being more cautious not to offend it, given what an enormous strategic asset the alliance would therefore be. While its possible that Japan might start a war in China, they would have to be very cautious about it, and I would expect them to be more willing to accept, if grudgingly, international arbitration, especially if the European powers aren't distracted like they were in OTL 1930s. After all, without the first world war, Germany still has Kiautschou, Austria-Hungary, France and Italy all still have stakes in Shanghai, and Russia still has Port Arthur. Add to that, Western powers have significantly more money to throw around and have in living memory ganged up on Japan and made it withdraw.
More positively for Japan (if not Korea or Taiwan), without the disruption of war they should have more success in assimilating Koreans and Taiwanese culturally, linguistically and religiously. That's something that would have a big impact on the cultures of those areas, even if they later gained independence. Korea is also a lot less likely to be divided.
Russia I would expect to continue building up Vladivostok, complete the second line of the Trans-Siberian Railway, and continue its investments in Manchuria. The Harbin Russian community is likely to grow larger. There's a not insignificant chance that Russia would want to pry Inner Manchuria off China, either as a new province or as a puppet state, if the latter, they might seek out Puyi to be puppet emperor, which I'd expect to have a pretty big cultural impact on Manchuria, especially if they actively promote Manchu culture and language to counter Chinese identity.
I see most of the European powers and the US seeking stability in Eastern Asia, as that's better for business. Without two world wars to obliterate the accumulated wealth of Europe, I would expect more investment in Asia, and possibly earlier industrialisation of some parts. European powers are also going to be more willing and able to intervene in Asian nations' domestic affairs to protect their investments. I could definitely see that breeding resentment.
Without the pressure of war, and the unifying power of a resistance movement, Indonesia is a lot less likely to become independant as a unified whole. Sooner or later the Dutch will need to release it, for budgetary reasons if nothing else, but they're more likely to do so piecemeal, dividing Java from Sumatra, Bali, the Molluccas, New Guinea, etc. (Incidentally, this means no 20th Century colonisation of West Papua by mainly Javanese settlers).
The British may also feel no need to federate Malaya, which means that North Borneo will likely have a very different culture and history. Absent the pressure of the wars and enormous debt taken on to pay for them, I don't see Britain giving up either Singapore or Hong Kong without a very big fight. They're too strategically and economically valuable. Depending on how the locals are treated, how mainland China and Malaya fare, and the wider internayional situation, this could breed a fair bit of resentment, or engender a fair bit of loyalty.

 

[pinerana]

More positively for Japan (if not Korea or Taiwan), without the disruption of war they should have more success in assimilating Koreans and Taiwanese culturally, linguistically and religiously.

and Russia still has Port Arthur

These two seem mutually exclusive.
Japan only gained Korea in the Russo-Japanese war, in which Russia lost Port Arthur.

Do you perhaps envision them coming to a peaceful agreement to split spheres of influence Manchuria to Russia and Korea to Japan? This was very likely OTL if it wasn't for Wilhelm's encouragement of Russia to go to war.

But even then they were about spheres of influence in an independent Korea and (nominally Chinese) Manchuria... Could this ever really develop into complete Japanese annexation of Korea?

 

[Frrf]

These two seem mutually exclusive.
Japan only gained Korea in the Russo-Japanese war, in which Russia lost Port Arthur.

Do you perhaps envision them coming to a peaceful agreement to split spheres of influence Manchuria to Russia and Korea to Japan? This was very likely OTL if it wasn't for Wilhelm's encouragement of Russia to go to war.

But even then they were about spheres of influence in an independent Korea and (nominally Chinese) Manchuria... Could this ever really develop into complete Japanese annexation of Korea?

My bad. I had erroneously thought that Japan handed it back to Russia.

 

[imperial empire]

It's a no World Wars timeline thought, so Russia wouldn't have fallen into a civil war.

Also is it really realistic that the defeat in Korea is enough to curtail Japan's imperial ambitions and craving for resources?

I was thinking that instead of WW1 leading to a Russian civil war a lack of reforms and the incompetence of the ruling class leads to civil war instead causing Russia to lose influence in Korea.
A defeat in Korea might lead to the political leaders to reject military expansion and conquest to gain resources and will also hurt the IJA by humiliating it. This weakened IJA would be as powerful politically. Plus without Korea and a toehold in China junior officers cannot create incidences that lead to 2nd Sino-Japanese war.