No Mongol Empire leading to an East centered World

[Kerbourgnec]

Good day everyone,

I have been considering doing a no Genghis timeline for some time, and I think I’m ready to start diving into the thirteenth century and actually write it. As everyone knows, such a strong POD makes basically everything possible, but I still want to stick to a rigorous method, therefore I am still doing a lot of research right now.

To give you an idea of where I want the world to go, China and Bagdad don’t get razed and stay independent, increasing maritime trade in the Indian Ocean. The Song dynasty, contrary to the previous Chinese empires, was able to consider having equal (and not tributary) relations with the neighbours from Dali or Goreyo (even though Chinese culture was still considered as superior), and had a strong navy. They would found expeditions in the Indian Ocean (not to the scale of Zheng He’s treasure fleet) and enter in direct and then constant contact with the Arabs (or the ruler of the area, I’m not sure yet if the Abbasid survive or some neighbour conquers them). East Asia (Goreyo was quite open at the time and Japan doesn’t have a reason to stay back without the threat of the Mongol invasions) becomes more and more connected to the Middle East. Moreover, the rivalries in China between Goreyo, Jin, Xi Xia and Song keep funding the development of gunpowder based weapons , and internal stability of this statu quo is favorable to the development of local industries and of the merchant class.
Meanwhile in Europe, no Pax Mongolica to bring demand of Asian goods or to allow travels of the Italians to China (I am also considering bringing the Hexi corridor and Xi Xia into chaos to break the Northern Silk Road), no gunpowder until much later, no (or delayed) Black death to weaken feudalism, no Ottomans to take down Constantinople.

I think by that point you got my point. The center of the world is still China, and most of the Indian Ocean, and doesn’t shift to Europe. The Age of Exploration isn’t really a thing and an early industrial revolution starts in China, but is slower than in England and propagates to most of the Indian Ocean and the Chinese diaspora. The result would be a much more sinocentric world, but where many different areas develop at the same time (East and SE Asia, India, the Middle East and the East African coast, with repercussions in the rest of the world.
I am still thinking about what could happen to the Americas. A discovery by the Chinese seems really unlikely, even more coming across the Pacific. But the Europeans do not really need a Western route to India as there is no Turk to block the way and the Arabs are tolerant.

This work is a Behemoth that would take ages to complete (rethink the industrial revolution and the inventions with a Chinese point of view, i.e. no Greek background - that the Arab scholars can bring), but I find it fascinating. I believe it is quite different from the existing Chaos TL. Tell me if you want more details about how I see it, and if you have ideas and advice, I will gladly take them.

 

[von Adler]

Basque, Irish or Norwegian fishermen will be discovering the Grand Bank fisheries sooner or later - they probably were already making expeditions there in the late 1300s. After that, it is just the question of a storm blowing some fishermen off course for America to be (re)discovered.

No great plague means that Norway is not gutted, and that trade with Greenland can continue, which means the Norse colony can survive and America is much closer.

Without the plague Europe will have a lack of land and a lot of conflict from that - colonisation of America might even start earlier than OTL under those circumstances.

 

[Kerbourgnec]

Basque, Irish or Norwegian fishermen will be discovering the Grand Bank fisheries sooner or later - they probably were already making expeditions there in the late 1300s. After that, it is just the question of a storm blowing some fishermen off course for America to be (re)discovered.

No great plague means that Norway is not gutted, and that trade with Greenland can continue, which means the Norse colony can survive and America is much closer.

Without the plague Europe will have a lack of land and a lot of conflict from that - colonisation of America might even start earlier than OTL under those circumstances.

I agree with Fishermen finding the New World, but Europe is still far from being overpopulated, even more if we compare to Asian countries. Moreover, it might take some time before anyone realizes how big America is and that it's not just another Northern island. Columbus expedition made a lot of noise because they thought they found a route to India, but no one really cared about the Norse men finding another frozen island. Fish doesn't move crowds, spices and gold do. And it would take a lot more exploration to fing American gold.

 

[David II]

Even if the chinese don't cross the ocean, japanese and even koreans could sail north and find a route to America via Alaska. Imagine a two way colonization of the Americas led by east-asian and european explorers; possibilites are countless

 

[Silver01]

Eh the problem is that the discovery of the new world will switch the trading to the Atlantic also the real problem was not over population rather the end of the little optimum and the beginning of the little ice age leading to crop failures there are now more mouths to feed .

This climate change will also affect china with harvest failure the flooding of rivers etc all helped on the decline of the yaun dynasty and may cause the collpase of the song

 

[Kerbourgnec]

Even if the chinese don't cross the ocean, japanese and even koreans could sail north and find a route to America via Alaska. Imagine a two way colonization of the Americas led by east-asian and european explorers; possibilites are countless

The Japanese were never sailors, except for the wokou, but why would pirates go to such length?
Koreans, maybe, but still we need an incentive to sail there. I have a cousin who made that trip, and trust me you really need a strong reason. (maybe like the Europeans fishermen) And even if some people know that there is a land far away, it doesn't necessarily bring systematic colonization. My best bet on the colonizing part from Asia x would come from the Chinese ever-growing population, after all they colonized southern China entirely.

 

[Library of Alexandria]

No new world cripples the rate of technological expansion. In order for a completely stable China, we need to see enough technology to allow an empire of the size of the average china to stay together.



China really couldn't have taken over the world before the modern era. If you want anything to happen with no Mongols, it'd be a much stronger Arab sphere.

 

[Library of Alexandria]

The Japanese were never sailors, except for the wokou, but why would pirates go to such length?
Koreans, maybe, but still we need an incentive to sail there. I have a cousin who made that trip, and trust me you really need a strong reason. (maybe like the Europeans fishermen) And even if some people know that there is a land far away, it doesn't necessarily bring systematic colonization. My best bet on the colonizing part from Asia x would come from the Chinese ever-growing population, after all they colonized southern China entirely.

Especially because (at least before oil) Alaska isn't worth much. "Oh wow, more tundra! We're gonna be rich!"

 

[Kerbourgnec]

Eh the problem is that the discovery of the new world will switch the trading to the Atlantic also the real problem was not over population rather the end of the little optimum and the beginning of the little ice age leading to crop failures there are now more mouths to feed .

This climate change will also affect china with harvest failure the flooding of rivers etc all helped on the decline of the yaun dynasty and may cause the collpase of the song

Song is bound to collapse, it's China we are talking about. My bet is that the temporary stability in China and the status quo between the regional power as well as the discovery of Muslim science ignites a societal revolution before the time of troubles.
Jin will loose power slowly as it becomes isolated, with bad relations with both Goreyo and Song (even though trade flourished), the interruption of the Northern Silk road and their lack of navy to compensate. (compared to Goreyo and Song).
The issue is how long will it take for China to regain stability. During that time, the balance of power in the Indian Ocean shifts towards India, SE Asia and the Muslim world. Japan and Goreyo could also rise in the region, pursuing development and taking in Chinese elite refugees.

 

[Silver01]

Song is bound to collapse, it's China we are talking about. My bet is that the temporary stability in China and the status quo between the regional power as well as the discovery of Muslim science ignites a societal revolution before the time of troubles.
Jin will loose power slowly as it becomes isolated, with bad relations with both Goreyo and Song (even though trade flourished), the interruption of the Northern Silk road and their lack of navy to compensate. (compared to Goreyo and Song).
The issue is how long will it take for China to regain stability. During that time, the balance of power in the Indian Ocean shifts towards India, SE Asia and the Muslim world. Japan and Goreyo could also rise in the region, pursuing development and taking in Chinese elite refugees.

Yeah also a black death desiese like plague can still spread since the little ice age making crop failures leads to weaker inmune system. Maybe it's not as big as the otl but it can still happen

 

[Kerbourgnec]

No new world cripples the rate of technological expansion. In order for a completely stable China, we need to see enough technology to allow an empire of the size of the average china to stay together.



China really couldn't have taken over the world before the modern era. If you want anything to happen with no Mongols, it'd be a much stronger Arab sphere.

I don't think China would take over the world. It was never in the intention of the Chinese to expand outside of what they considered being their natural borders, they learned lessons from Nanzhao and Vietnam. But Chinese diaspora and culture expanded everywhere is East Asia without the need of a government funded action.
The Arab sphere will play a huge role in my TL, even though I haven't spoken much about it. Most of the merchants in the Indian Ocean were Muslim, many countries converted to Islam from the Swahili coast to Brunei, and Bagdad was the intellectual tolerant center of the world. But for now I don't really know in which direction the history of the region would go. I have focused my research on the immediate neighbours of the mongols and I'm well versed in East Asian history so it's easier for me to have an idea of how it will go.
The other pole that I haven't really spoken about is India. I plan that, being in the middle of the trade they divert profit and tech, and that à Chinese diaspora would settle basically everywhere, probably converting to Islam in most places.

 

[Kerbourgnec]

Yeah also a black death desiese like plague can still spread since the little ice age making crop failures leads to weaker inmune system. Maybe it's not as big as the otl but it can still happen

Definitely. I have to make sure to take into account inevitable disasters and to see how bad China was crippled after an epidemy in more favorable times.

 

[Kerbourgnec]

For the discovery of the Americas, an interesting bet would be the Polynesian (peak of Tui Tonga Empire) being included in the SE Asian trade and settling everywhere in the Pacific. Some elements of proof seem to show that in OTL they have already discovered the Americas on their own. But here they would be included in a global trade and would be more keen on making contact with the locals. Little by little like a domino effect both continents start getting to know each other and other nations send ships to the Pacific Ocean, knowing that they can rest on some islands on the way. (while European fishermen colonies thrive unknowingly in North America).

 

[Pesterfield]

Especially because (at least before oil) Alaska isn't worth much

Salmon comes to mind, so Asian interest might be the same as European fisheries.

Furs, gold, walrus ivory, trees for shipbulding.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

I don't think China would take over the world. It was never in the intention of the Chinese to expand outside of what they considered being their natural borders, they learned lessons from Nanzhao and Vietnam. But Chinese diaspora and culture expanded everywhere is East Asia without the need of a government funded action.
The Arab sphere will play a huge role in my TL, even though I haven't spoken much about it. Most of the merchants in the Indian Ocean were Muslim, many countries converted to Islam from the Swahili coast to Brunei, and Bagdad was the intellectual tolerant center of the world. But for now I don't really know in which direction the history of the region would go. I have focused my research on the immediate neighbours of the mongols and I'm well versed in East Asian history so it's easier for me to have an idea of how it will go.
The other pole that I haven't really spoken about is India. I plan that, being in the middle of the trade they divert profit and tech, and that à Chinese diaspora would settle basically everywhere, probably converting to Islam in most places.

When you say Baghdad was the intellectual tolerant capitol of the world, what is it that you refer to? This seems a bit radical to me.

 

[alexmilman]

The Arab sphere will play a huge role in my TL, even though I haven't spoken much about it. Most of the merchants in the Indian Ocean were Muslim, many countries converted to Islam from the Swahili coast to Brunei, and Bagdad was the intellectual tolerant center of the world. But for now I don't really know in which direction the history of the region would go.

For the “Arab” world you are too late. Period of the Arab conquests was a remote past and the Muslim world had been split.

By the late XII Baghdad hardly was “center of the world” (I doubt that at any point it had too much importance for China, India or most of the Christian Europe but, anyway, this was mostly in the past). For quite a while the real military power was in the hands of the Turik emirs and, while not too long prior to the Mongolian invasion the caliphs regained some independence, there was a problem on the Eastern border: Khwaresm Shah Muhammad II tried to depose Caliph after he refused to recognize his title. Of course, expedition of 1217 failed due to a blizzard but without the Mongolian invasion the war would most probably go on.

As for China, big parts of it had been regularly conquered by the “barbarians” even without Genghis and, anyway, there was plenty time for them to discover America (or Antarctica) and overwhelm the world with their technological might. Somehow, this did not happen and it does not even look like they could make a good use of the gunpowder which they presumably invented.

The trade routes from China to the West did exist before Genghis: he was providing protection to the trade that was already there. So what would change fundamentally for the Western Europe? Eastern Europe was at least directly impacted by the invasion but it does not look like Rus, Poland or Bulgaria excessively benefited from the knowledge coming from the more advanced parts of the Mongolian Empire and somehow all benefits were going to those outside the empire. 😢

 

[Kerbourgnec]

When you say Baghdad was the intellectual tolerant capitol of the world, what is it that you refer to? This seems a bit radical to me and somewhat of a puppet of the Western world.

We are in the Arab Golden Age, progress is made in many domains, medicine, mathematics, astronomy... The sack of Bagdad by the Mongols is sometimes compared to the burning of the library of Alexandria.
The society was very tolerant at that time (even more if we compare to their neighbours in Europe), andscholars would study Greek texts which could be only found in their Arab translation.
Actually Western Science has partly been built on translation of Arab books (that were sometimes themselves translations from Greek).

And I don't really get the comment about puppet of the Western world...

 

[Kerbourgnec]

For the “Arab” world you are too late. Period of the Arab conquests was a remote past and the Muslim world had been split.

By the late XII Baghdad hardly was “center of the world” (I doubt that at any point it had too much importance for China, India or most of the Christian Europe but, anyway, this was mostly in the past). For quite a while the real military power was in the hands of the Turik emirs and, while not too long prior to the Mongolian invasion the caliphs regained some independence, there was a problem on the Eastern border: Khwaresm Shah Muhammad II tried to depose Caliph after he refused to recognize his title. Of course, expedition of 1217 failed due to a blizzard but without the Mongolian invasion the war would most probably go on.

I don't mean center f the world as everyone looks at it with envy but like it was the best place to be if you wanted to study.
And yes the Caliphate was declining, but even if they are taken over by their neighbours, the invader is likely to keep the institutions in place and the scholars could keep going with their lifes.

As for China, big parts of it had been regularly conquered by the “barbarians” even without Genghis and, anyway, there was plenty time for them to discover America (or Antarctica) and overwhelm the world with their technological might. Somehow, this did not happen and it does not even look like they could make a good use of the gunpowder which they presumably invented.

The change here is the temporary shift in the Song mentality, when there was an actual balance of power in China and almost peaceful relations between the neighbors. This competition, arriving with Muslim scolars and gunpowder innovations lead to a need -and possibility- to develop like it never happened in China. Song China saw improvements in iron production, began to use coke instead of charcoal, increased maritime trade, an influx of population to the cities...
So yes this time, unlike when China thinks of itself as the center of the world and the only worthy country, unlike when China doesn't have any real rival (except for itself), I think a shift would be possible to consider.
The Mongols destroyed China and installed an Empire with no rivalry possible, did not need to improve their technology as by the time they controled China, Yuan wasn't facing any real opponent.

The trade routes from China to the West did exist before Genghis: he was providing protection to the trade that was already there. So what would change fundamentally for the Western Europe? Eastern Europe was at least directly impacted by the invasion but it does not look like Rus, Poland or Bulgaria excessively benefited from the knowledge coming from the more advanced parts of the Mongolian Empire and somehow all benefits were going to those outside the empire. 😢

The trade route existed, but the Mongol peace allowed a much easier and safer travel, increasing the trade from China to Europe, and increasing the demand for Asian goods, hence the brutal end when the Turks took Constantinople was more important in OTL than this alternate TL. Moreover, the Black Death doesn't put a threat on feudalism to shift mentalities and the Muslims are stronger to keep the Europeans from crossing Gibraltar.

 

[M79]

Europe may still have a Malthusian collapse around 1355-1370, the overpopulation and food production were reaching critical mass. Without a reason to question the (miscopied) ideas of the ancients Europe experiences at least another century of almost Dark Ages while Islam is likely to emerge in a much milder form than usually found today. India, China, and Baghdad become the global commercial centers while thr warring tribes of Europe are probably contained by geography more than anything else. Byzantium may fall faster if the Turkic city-states can get their act together or last longer if the Ottomans never rise or worse convert to Orthodox Christianity as refugees from another Turkic city-state and serve as leaders for the Purple itself. Perhaps America is discovered earlier or more likely later?

 

[Library of Alexandria]

Europe may still have a Malthusian collapse around 1355-1370, the overpopulation and food production were reaching critical mass. Without a reason to question the (miscopied) ideas of the ancients Europe experiences at least another century of almost Dark Ages while Islam is likely to emerge in a much milder form than usually found today. India, China, and Baghdad become the global commercial centers while thr warring tribes of Europe are probably contained by geography more than anything else. Byzantium may fall faster if the Turkic city-states can get their act together or last longer if the Ottomans never rise or worse convert to Orthodox Christianity as refugees from another Turkic city-state and serve as leaders for the Purple itself. Perhaps America is discovered earlier or more likely later?

Weren't the Turks direct enough to be butterflied away by the lack of a mongol horde?