Need Help On A TL's Plausibility (Bit Of A Long Read)

Pretty much in the title but I've recently had a spate of enthusiasm of an old idea that I've tried to make into a new-ish idea. I've written down some of my ideas that goes from the 1910's to the 1920's through several countries although some are far more detailed than others. I'll admit that some of these perhaps strain a bit too much but that's what this thread is for, feedback on the idea before I continue further. Let me know what you think. :)

USA:
William Jennings Bryan hesitates in the 1912 National Convention, letting Wilson read his concession speech and thus leaving the Democratic Party divided with Champ Clark leading the conservative wing and Bryan, the liberals.
The Presidential election is bitterly contested between the five major candidates as Clark is labelled the stooge of business interests, hurting him in the eyes of the electorate
After a long and hard election, the vote is split between the top three candidates of Roosevelt, Bryan and Champ respectively, Taft coming in at a minor fourth.
With the vote going to the House, a vote takes place which sees Roosevelt snatch votes away from Republicans and liberal Democrats that allows him the bare majority to win while in the Senate; Thomas Marshall is elected Vice President.
Due to the nature of the election, the Progressive nature of Roosevelt’s election is forced to be dramatically cut down with many electoral reforms being quietly dropped except women’s suffrage which passes with some objections.
Other reforms such as social security and worker’s benefits attract Huey Long to the Party and he takes on an early interest in politics.
The outbreak of the First World War saw Roosevelt take a key interest in it and with Britain sending propaganda of German atrocities through the sole telegraph wire; Roosevelt built up support for entering the conflict and sent aid directly to Britain, causing the German Government to declare open warfare on any ships within British waters.
On the 18th October 1914, the Anchor Line Ship Cameronia was sunk by German U-Boats upon returning from the US costing 812 twelve lives, most of them American.
In response to the sinking of the Cameronia, the House and Senate both agree to declare War upon Germany and its allies, the US officially
entering the War on the 5th November.
Huey Long enlists and is sent to the front as part of America’s first group of troops to be sent to the Western Front in time for the Battle of Champagne where a French assault is stymied by a desperate German attack against the green American troops.
Long survives throughout the battle, becoming more disillusioned as he sees thousands of men being thrown into the meat grinder and many American troops dying in the mud before the German assault.
The growth in American presence on the Western Front causes the German High Command to panic and waste the lives of thousands in futile attacks to break the lines of the Allies but with little effect aside from causing mass casualties on both sides.
To prevent their own troops dying in such a manner, Churchill opens up channels with the American Army to help fund and build a working tank, a working model being built for 1915 and mass production starting in the US for transport near the end of the year.
The German offensive eventually winds down in the summer of 1915 due to sheer exhaustion and troops being placed east to prevent Russia from capitalising on the stagnation of that front.
A tentative assault by the Allies starts in September of 1915 that sees a slow grinding of German troops back to their borders, Long earning himself the Legion of Honour and Medal of Honour for gallantry displayed during the assault despite his growing disheartening of the entire War.
The assault on Germany is joined by a mass amount of tanks at the end of 1915 that helps in breaking the lines and allowing the Allies to step onto German soil by the end of December.
Unable to push back the Western Allies and Russia holding on in the east, Germany surrenders in April 1916 with the rest of the Central Powers following soon after.
The following Treaty of Versailles sees Germany loses its colonies and is carved up considerably with Poland being made up of its eastern lands as a buffer for Russia, France regains Alsace and Lorraine while Germany has to pay reparations and see its Military greatly reduced.
Austro-Hungary loses its Slavic population to independent states while Russia gains Galicia. The Empire remains in rump form around Austria and Hungary.
Ottoman Empire loses its remaining influence outside of its Turkish borders and an inward rebellion overthrows the Sultanate before declaring a dictatorial republic. Russia gains free reign through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits for fifty years instead of the hoped for capture of Constantinople.
he various Treaties are signed from September 1916 to February 1917, ending the War and allowing US troops to come home as the country had gained port rights in the Caribbean and a large portion of the reparations, Roosevelt is re-elected on the results of the War.
A stronger Military presence along the border by the order of Roosevelt keeps the Mexican Revolution within its own borders although he eyes the chance to cement US influence over the region with eagerness.
Coming home, Long is honoured as a War hero for his actions but feels resentment over the War, believing American troops to having been used by the Allies as cannon fodder in their attacks.
Feelings over how American troops were used in the War raise as many veterans return, reporting their horrible experiences in the trenches. With the US not gaining a great deal by the War, severe questions arise as to the true point of having fought.
As things settle down in post-war US, the influx of veterans finding their old jobs having been taken by those who stayed at home causes even more large scale resentment. A Bill that is brought up in Congress to force the companies to return the jobs to their original places is publicly argued against by Roosevelt, citing that it would cause too much chaos.
The defeat of the Bill makes many veterans furious at Roosevelt, helping create the ‘stab in the back’ myth that the American soldiers had been sent out to die for European nations simply for money for the fat cats in Washington.
Long seizes upon these feelings, his own bitterness at having seen so many die for what he believed was nothing siding him with the Democrat Party as he entered politics, wanting justice for those who had been betrayed so badly by their government.
Believing that the Progressive Party’s platform would be unpopular due to its connection with Roosevelt, Long decides to start from the ground up with the Democrat Party, rising his way through the ranks as he sways people to his line of thinking convincing them to be for populist measures and a strong foreign policy.
In the aftermath of the US invasion and establishment of the bases in Mexico, Long starts campaigning for an end to what he felt was the imperialistic wars Roosevelt had embarked upon, saying that America should only fight in its own defence.
Roosevelt passes away in early 1918 just as the Mexico occupation was being finalised, leaving General Leonard Wood to become President amid growing unpopularity due to the occupation of Mexico and several policies by Roosevelt that had alienated many conservative elements of society.
As Long grows in popularity within the Democratic Party, he remains unable to cement his position as a true candidate for Governor due to his radical policies alienating the higher ups with the party.
Frustrated, Long gets a chance when he is approached by William J. Simmons who makes him a deal, the KKK would support him in the election through various secret in means in return that Long would support legislation that would help the lower class white man and prevent the curbing of KKK growth in the state.
After some inner debate, Long agrees to the deal and becomes the Democratic candidate for Louisiana after being accepted among the large swath and people and KKK members helping him gain influence amongst Democratic support.
In the 1920 Presidential elections, John W. Davis is elected as President, campaigning on isolationism, a stronger economy and conservative values.

Mexico:
The Mexican Revolution saw its path unfold with Huerta being killed in late 1914 by Revolutionary forces with the US unwilling to press any sort of pressure due to Roosevelt being heavily distracted by domestic issues.
Pancho Villa manages to manoeuvre himself into a position o power after the death of Huerta, gaining control of the capital and managing to just about hold onto power through use of the Military although a growing opposition in the countryside shook his regime from 1915-1917.
After a cache of rebel weapons is found to be from the US, Villa sends a force to probe Southern Texas to take out a gun smuggling operation.
The Mexican forces clashes with an American one on the Texan border before retreating after several casualties on both sides.
Leaping at the opportunity, Roosevelt sends an Army under General Pershing to overthrow the Villa Government and establish one more amenable to US interests.
American forces cross the border in September 1917 and strike hard at the Villa Government, marching into Mexico City and sending Villa fleeing to the countryside.
In Villa’s place, Manuel Pelaez is established as President of Mexico, being fairly popular in certain regions of Mexico, a strong Military man and open to American interests.
As Pelaez is established as President in early 1918, he agrees to have US bases installed around oil rich areas of Mexico to protect the interests of businesses there and preventing them from falling into the hands of Revolutionaries.
The move outrages opinion in Mexico and the US as it’s looked upon as blatant Imperialism by both sides and is criticised as another attempt by Roosevelt to line his pockets and those of the fat cats in Washington at the expense of the lives of US troops.
Following the election of President Davis, the chaos in Mexico centres on the south as US troops continue to enforce the order along the border.
Pelaez finds himself unable to regain control of the south due to a lack of popular support combined with US troops refusing to leave their bases beside the oil fields.
A de facto division of Mexico along north/south lines occurs and neither side is strong enough to tip the balance from 1921 onwards.

Britain:
John Kipling enters politics after the War, determined for similar conflicts to never happen again after coming home amidst his family thinking he had died, his father’s tears making him determined for there to be justice for those who lost loved ones and the Empire itself.
The Fourth Reform Act (Allowing men over twenty one without property requirements to vote) is passed in the months following the surrender of Germany.
An election follows with the Liberals retaining power albeit under a coalition government with Irish Nationals to get the Home Rule Bill finally put through.
With the German losses being heavier throughout the War, Ireland remains quiet and pressure from Roosevelt aids British forces in tracking down German arm shipments, weakening the militant arm of the Republicans.
Following the election, Asquith returns to Ireland and the Third Home Rule Bill comes into effect in 1917 which ravages the north with Unionist violence.
Despite his reluctance, Asquith orders in the Army to subdue Unionist violence amid great bloodshed before all sides are brought to Westminster to work on a compromise, creating the Fourth Home Rule Bill.
Under the Fourth Home Rule Bill, a vote of all the counties is taken in Ireland of which counties wanted to remain under an Ireland under home rule and those which wanted to remain with the UK.
With the vote taken, the six north-eastern ones decide to remain with the UK, separating under largely peaceful terms in early 1919.
India also becomes an issue in the aftermath of the War as the government passes a Government of India Bill that is widely well received by many within the sub-continent.

Japan:
Japan gains all of Germany’s Asian colonies and sphere of influence in China.
Japan’s clashes with the US on its growing involvement in China stymies its attempts to get a mandate for Germany’s Pacific colonies, instead having to rethink these attempts as a suspicious America overlooks the Pacific with a new and powerful navy.
The Rice Riots are largely averted without major Japanese Military commitment elsewhere nonexistent and Terauchi Masatake passes away as Prime Minister in 1919.
In his place, Saitō Makoto becomes Prime Minister as a moderate in the political climate and pushes forward universal suffrage.

Russia:
Tsar Nicholas II takes control of the Russian Army in the final days of World War One as he grows frustrated with the lack of land won against a weakening Germany.
Despite Nicholas’s conduct losing men and setting back the Allied War effort, Germany’s surrender comes and vindicates his role completely.
At the Treaty of Versailles, the independence of Austro-Hungary’s Slavic populations is used as a means to prevent further Russian claims on Turkey, Germany’s Polish lands being added to Russia as a further means to sweeten the deal.
Touting the War as a great victory, Nicholas finds his political position greatly strengthened and the Liberals in the Duma weakened.
Encouraged by his position, Nicholas II continues his resistance to any kind of reforms, even rolling back the ones he had already made and expelled the Duma.
This move enrages many in Russia, especially amongst the returning veterans and others who had hoped the War would change things for the better.
Riots follow in Moscow as workers clamour for their rights, forcing the Royal Family from the city.
During their escape, a brick is thrown into the Romanov’s carriage killing Alexei and sending the Tsar deep into despair.
The Russian Army brutally puts down the riots upon hearing about the death of the Prince and the Tsar abdicates to be with his family, leaving Grand Duke Michael to become Tsar after the Duma ratify him.
Wanting to satisfy both the conservatives and liberals, Tsar Michael agrees to land reform for the peasants but still refuses further political reform.
The return of Bukharin as a Socialist who has renounced the ideas of Revolution provides a rallying point to many although he’s viewed with suspicion by an equal amount of people on both sides of the political debate.

Germany:
No Allies were to be found for Germany at Versailles as both France and Russia looked to weaken it completely, Japan hoped for its colonies, Britain was furious over an attempted plot to send weapons via the US to cause an uprising in India (Although that was stopped before it got underway) and the Roosevelt Administration was keen to weaken Germany for greater peace in Europe.
Germany is left broken and bankrupt in the aftermath of the War with many believing that the elite had completely messed up the War and allowed German territory to be invaded.
The unhappiness behind the loss of the War soon erupts in Bavaria as the Communist party stages a revolt in Bavaria as several divisions of the German Army mutiny over pay.
Without the Army to help, the German Government sees Bavaria declare itself a Republic and can only watch on helplessly as the Bavarian People’s Republic is established.
Many Bolsheviks travel to Bavaria to help with the new Socialist state, Lenin and others becoming key figures in the government.
The German Army, sick of the civilian government being unable to stem the Communist surge and from seeming neglect, enacts a coup with Erich Ludendorff becoming the head of the new German government.
Working on the fear of a Communist Revolution spreading further, German diplomats are able to get the Allied nations to agree to spreading out the reparations and easing up the financial burden so that the German Army could at least be paid but remains at the numbers set by the Treaty of Versailles.
Unable to squash the Communist nation due to the need to rebuild Germany and to prevent a general uprising of Communist sympathy, a deal is negotiated where Bavaria wouldn’t encourage Communist agitation in Germany in return for its existence.
While keeping to its side of the agreement, the Bavarian Republic took advantage of the political chaos in Italy to encourage a Communist uprising there.

Italy:
After gaining Tyrol in the Treaty of Versailles, the costs of the War seemed to be overwhelming to many.
In the ensuing political climate and the creation of the Bavarian People’s Republic, the right wing elements of Italy try to enact various ways to weaken the Communists within Italy.
One march against a Communist group in Turin ends in chaos when the leader of the Blackshirts, Mussolini, is shot dead from a gun by a Bavarian agent.
In response to this, Turin erupts into outright violence and chaos as the Communists signal for a general uprising against the right wing elements of government before they’re wiped out.
The uprising soon spreads as men and arms come through from Bavaria to help offer a rallying point, also sent in the form of Nikolai Bukharin to help organise the Communists into a cohesive force.
Aided in several small ways by Bavaria, the Communists in Italy take advantage of the confusion of Italy’s right and spread across Northern Italy, linking Tyrol with the rapidly expanding People’s Republic of Italy.
The right in Italy eventually manages to rally around Rome, fighting off a probing attack from the Communists but the fall of Venice to Communist Revolution takes the heart out of their cause as well as further cities in the north that fall to Communist uprisings.
An attempt to strike back at the Communist north fails as the ill equipped and low morale Army of the south suffers from mass desertions although it does manage to weaken the north enough for a cease fire to be declared.
With various right wing factions vying for position in the aftermath of being forced south and the Army having a severe Communist sympathy to it, King Emmanuel III steps in to take control and appoints Roberto Farinacci as Prime Minister due to his ardent anti-Socialism and political support from the hard right of Italian politics.
Forced into agreeing to the cease-fire, the remaining part of the Kingdom of Italy watches as the southern borders of Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna become the national borders of the People’s Republic of Northern Italy.
The split of Italy sees the Kingdom of Italy take on harsh policies, banning Socialist Parties and arresting their sympathisers while taking on a radical industrialisation program to make up for losing the north.
The People’s Republic of Italy meanwhile sees a march against some of its policies in Venice and violence breaks out as the Communist forces respond by harshly cracking down on the dissidents, killing hundreds.
The violence is enough for one major Bolshevik, Bukharin to leave the Communist nations and return to Russia, renouncing his Revolutionary views.
 
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Communist Bavaria not squashed is ASB.
1) No way Germany would allow it, even a broken Germany would try to stop it with the blessing from the Entente
2) If the Germans can't stop it the Entente powers will
3) The historical Bavarian communist regime had not much control outside Munich, would be the same problem here, Munich is a red island in a white sea. The city would be under siege the minute the new regime is installed.

Italy getting all Tyrol is ASB. What they got OTL was Trent, South Tirol, Gorizia, Istria and Trieste. They still wanted Fiume and Dalmatia
 
Communist Bavaria not squashed is ASB.
1) No way Germany would allow it, even a broken Germany would try to stop it with the blessing from the Entente
2) If the Germans can't stop it the Entente powers will
3) The historical Bavarian communist regime had not much control outside Munich, would be the same problem here, Munich is a red island in a white sea. The city would be under siege the minute the new regime is installed.

Italy getting all Tyrol is ASB. What they got OTL was Trent, South Tirol, Gorizia, Istria and Trieste. They still wanted Fiume and Dalmatia

Would the Entente first possibly view the Bavaria uprising as a possible inner affair, underestimating it before it blew out of the water? Just trying to find if there's anyway to work it in before dismissing it entirely.

As for Italy, any reason why they didn't get what they wanted? I know Tyrol was a sticking point but haven't seen anything mention why they didn't get it.
 
Why does Clark allow himself to be branded as a conservative stooge? All he need do is come out in favour of women's suffrage and a few other liberal (but not ultra--radical) measures; something which on his past record he would have no trouble doing. Does the average voter out in Ohio or Illinois really care who Boss Murphy voted for at the Convention?

As for Bryan bolting the party, that is about as ASBish as it gets. A more utterly partisan Democrat never lived. He even campaigned (albeit half-heartedly) for Alton Parker in 1904, who from his pov was a darned sight worse than Clark.
 
Would the Entente first possibly view the Bavaria uprising as a possible inner affair, underestimating it before it blew out of the water? Just trying to find if there's anyway to work it in before dismissing it entirely.

As for Italy, any reason why they didn't get what they wanted? I know Tyrol was a sticking point but haven't seen anything mention why they didn't get it.
Communist revolutions in all of Germany going out og hand, especially in the industrialized Rhineland and Northwest Germany. However you'll end up with a unified Communist Germany.
 
To prevent their own troops dying in such a manner, Churchill opens up channels with the American Army to help fund and build a working tank, a working model being built for 1915 and mass production starting in the US for transport near the end of the year.
The German offensive eventually winds down in the summer of 1915 due to sheer exhaustion and troops being placed east to prevent Russia from capitalising on the stagnation of that front.
A tentative assault by the Allies starts in September of 1915 that sees a slow grinding of German troops back to their borders, Long earning himself the Legion of Honour and Medal of Honour for gallantry displayed during the assault despite his growing disheartening of the entire War.
The assault on Germany is joined by a mass amount of tanks at the end of 1915 that helps in breaking the lines and allowing the Allies to step onto German soil by the end of December.

Pretty implausable. Why would Churchill build a tank in 1915, they hadn't been invented yet. It takes some time to develop this sort of thing. Churchills main thing in 1915 was amphibious warfare.

Americas early entry into the war would not have swung the balance in this way.
Unable to squash the Communist nation due to the need to rebuild Germany and to prevent a general uprising of Communist sympathy, a deal is negotiated where Bavaria wouldn’t encourage Communist agitation in Germany in return for its existence.

...

Forced into agreeing to the cease-fire, the remaining part of the Kingdom of Italy watches as the southern borders of Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna become the national borders of the People’s Republic of Northern Italy.
Germany and Italy breaking apart in this way is highly unlikely.

The violence is enough for one major Bolshevik, Bukharin to leave the Communist nations and return to Russia, renouncing his Revolutionary views.
If the Russian revolutions and Civil War didnt cause Bukharin to renounce revolution, why would this violence?
 
Why does Clark allow himself to be branded as a conservative stooge?

Not a conservative stooge, a stooge of big business willing to listen to them more than the common man. And he let himself be branded it in the same way Obama allowed himself to be branded a Muslim. ;) These are essentially cliff notes versions so I leave a lot of details out in order to get it down.

A more utterly partisan Democrat never lived. He even campaigned (albeit half-heartedly) for Alton Parker in 1904, who from his pov was a darned sight worse than Clark.

Well there isn't a clear cut winner in this election so Byran tries to go out for himself as opposed to going over to Clark. The stubborness of both men mean that the Democrats split, not just Byran's.

Communist revolutions in all of Germany going out og hand, especially in the industrialized Rhineland and Northwest Germany

Ah, fair enough. It was just an idea I had when wondering what had would have happened to Germany and then hearing about a potential Bavarian Communist Republic got the gears working. This is currently a 'sorting through the ideas' phase rather than a setting in stone of what'll happen.

Pretty implausable. Why would Churchill build a tank in 1915, they hadn't been invented yet.

There had been ideas and designs floating around of tanks before 1915 in various nations and first used in 1916. With US mechanics and scientists working with the rest of the Allies, I can imagine that the process would be sped up by several months at least.

Germany and Italy breaking apart in this way is highly unlikely.

All too true, it's why I'm currently looking for ideas in order to make it more likely if it isn't impossible. ;)

If the Russian revolutions and Civil War didnt cause Bukharin to renounce revolution, why would this violence?

Generally because Bukharin had the misfortune of being within ten feet of the event in question. Almost killed, saw several men women and children dying first hand is going to have an impact. I'm not sure if any of the leading Bolsheviks had any experience of the front aside from Trotsky and Stalin to an extent, Bukharin was largely a politician and economics man, as well as from what I can see, among those in the Bolsheviks more uncomfortable with the more extreme violence the Communists used.
 
Not a conservative stooge, a stooge of big business willing to listen to them more than the common man. And he let himself be branded it in the same way Obama allowed himself to be branded a Muslim. ;) These are essentially cliff notes versions so I leave a lot of details out in order to get it down.

Er, when did he do this? Certainly Boss Murphy's NY delegation switched to him (a perfectly reasonable thing to do, since Clark was well in the lead) which gave Bryan a convenient excuse to butt in, but when did Clark give any indication of being a tool of big business? If anything his record was more progressive than Wilson's.

Incidentally, in the Democratic Primaries, Clark had defeated Wilson in Illinois by over two to one, and in California by almost three to one. Had the party rank and file seen him as a tool of the rich, he would hardly have done that well in traditionally progressive states.


Well there isn't a clear cut winner in this election so Byran tries to go out for himself as opposed to going over to Clark. The stubborness of both men mean that the Democrats split, not just Byran's.

There was a very clear cut winner in the election. The Democrats carried the Electoral College more than 4 to 1, as they were always certain to do, virtually regardless of who their candidate was.

If you mean the nomination, a deadlock there might have resulted in the Convention turning to Bryan himself as their nominee. However, if they didn't, Bryan was utterly certain to swallow this and back the Democratic candidate, whoever that was; just as he had in 1904. Whatever his shortcomings as a politician, WJB understood that there was no future for splitters or bolters.
 
Er, when did he do this?

Sorry, should have been more clear. I meant that the perception of him being a stooge of big business is there, not the actual reality, hence the Obama/Muslim comparison. The inteference of Tammany didn't help and in TTL, certainly went a way to help his opponents smear him with a pretty wide brush.

Whatever his shortcomings as a politician, WJB understood that there was no future for splitters or bolters.

Hm, nothing Clark or the Party could have done (Either by accident of design) that would push Byran into simply going out on his own. Say if the primaries drag on and either man loses patience or is in some way pressured to finally break out? The way in which the Democrats won the election is essentialy the reason I'm going for this angle. The Republicans couldn't beat them as a single party, but them being fractured may help them stand a chance. I'm trying to aim for Roosevelt getting a third term in 1912 and this seemed to be one way of doing it.
 
Sorry, should have been more clear. I meant that the perception of him being a stooge of big business is there, not the actual reality, hence the Obama/Muslim comparison. The inteference of Tammany didn't help and in TTL, certainly went a way to help his opponents smear him with a pretty wide brush.

I can't see much evidence that there was such a perception until Bryan stuck his oar in. If anything, as I said before, Clark's reputation was more progressive than Wilson's (and of course much more than Harmon's or Underwood's).

Bryan's intervention was disastrous for Clark, because Bryan had enough clout to stop him getting a two-thirds majority. But at the same time, it was such a blatant attempt to deadlock the convention and clear tie way for Bryan himself to be nominated, that it scuppered Bryan's own chances. Yet Bryan, as a loyal Democrat, accepted his defeat and supported the Wilson ticket - as he would have supported Clark's had things gone that way. The political differences between Clark, Wilson and even Bryan were pretty trivial, and would have been dwarfed by the important business of beating the Republicans.



Hm, nothing Clark or the Party could have done (Either by accident of design) that would push Byran into simply going out on his own. Say if the primaries drag on and either man loses patience or is in some way pressured to finally break out? The way in which the Democrats won the election is essentialy the reason I'm going for this angle. The Republicans couldn't beat them as a single party, but them being fractured may help them stand a chance. I'm trying to aim for Roosevelt getting a third term in 1912 and this seemed to be one way of doing it.

Nothing would cause Bryan to bolt the party - he just didn't think like that. He was eccentric, but not an egotist like TR. He understood that the party was bigger than one man.

If for some reason you want TR [1], the only chance is for Taft to die or withdraw, and TR to get the Republican nomination. Once he goes the third party route, it's all over bar the shouting. The Bull Moose campaign was full of sound and fury, but in the end signified nothing - or at least very little - beyond the fact that TR had exiled himself into the wilderness.


[1] I don't really see why. Afaics, the only difference it makes is that the US delares war on Germany in February 1917 instead of April. This could make some changes, but probably only marginal ones.
 
If for some reason you want TR

Sort of what the premise of the TL depends on really, with a much earlier entry into WWI and so forth. ;) So the only real chance is for Taft to fall down a flight of stairs and Roosevelt gaining the nomination, perhaps getting a really slim electoral victory in some manner? It's why the split election seemed to be the the only real way to bring in the results needed for Roosevelt to clinch a very thin victory.

I can't see much evidence that there was such a perception until Bryan stuck his oar in.

Well the POD is right after that so it woudn't be too much for Roosevelt to grab onto that in what's going to be a remarkably tough election.
 
In regard of Italy, you made finish the war in 1916, Italy in OTL enter the madness in 1915 so she see combat for 1 maximum 2 years instead of 4 in OTL, this mean a lot less of dead and social disruption, no need of the class of 1899 to be hastily recruited for save the army, a lot less sense of mutiled victory.
Regarding Tyrol, well all Tyrol is good and well, but what really Italy wants in the region was what she obtained in the original treaty.
What give the italian common people and elite the sensation to be cheated was that all the promise of colonial expansion were discarted, and a lot of territory promised in the balkan by the treaty of london were instead give to yugoslavia in Versailles (Dalmatia, some part of Istria and Adriatic island, control direct and indirect of Albania), thanks a lot by Woodrow Wilson
And the army take socialist sympathy is likely almost ASB in this period, expcecially with less bloodshed, the army was historically very devouted to the king, officer and recruit alike
 
Sort of what the premise of the TL depends on really, with a much earlier entry into WWI and so forth.

Any really early (ie pre-1917) entry is unlikely whoever is President.

If TR is POTUS at the time of the Lusitania sinking (if that isn't butterflied away) he will send Germany some really strong protests, with at least an implied threat of war - and Germany will back down, as she did OTL even before Wilson's milder ones. And with TR in the White House, she's unlikely to renew USW in 1916. So TR spends the latter year wrangling, not with Germany, but with Britain over the interception of US mails etc.

What happens in 1917 of course depends whether TR is reelected. If he is, he may well seek a declaration of war in February 1917 rather than April, treating the resumption of USW as in itself a declaration of war on Germany's part. But as noted before, even if Congress passes this, the effects are likely to be relatively small.


;) So the only real chance is for Taft to fall down a flight of stairs and Roosevelt gaining the nomination, perhaps getting a really slim electoral victory in some manner? It's why the split election seemed to be the the only real way to bring in the results needed for Roosevelt to clinch a very thin victory.

Agreed - preferably before the primary battles get under way, so that things don't get too heated between TR's supporters and opponents in the party.



Well the POD is right after that so it woudn't be too much for Roosevelt to grab onto that in what's going to be a remarkably tough election.

It will of course only be a tough election if it's a straight fight.

The Democrats have no serious divisions. The free silver row is ancient history, and the later troubles over Prohibition and the Klan are barely gleams on the horizon. Any trouble Bryan makes is too obviously self-serving to make any impression on the voters. So the Dems can count on 37% of the vote (what Alton B Parker got against TR in 1904) at a minimum. That's only four percentage points less than Wilson got OTL, and far too small a reduction for either TR or Taft to have a prayer of winning a three way race. That's why you need a PoD well before the Republican Convention.
 
That's why you need a PoD well before the Republican Convention.

I see. Thanks for the help in this. A shame none of the Democrat Party has since been found to be cross dressers during the period. Would have made finding a POD so much easier. :D

If TR is POTUS at the time of the Lusitania sinking (if that isn't butterflied away

A similar event happens in late 1914 in TTL. I used a real ship that went across the Atlantic at the time for the incident in question. Combined with Roosevelt's keenes on the Entente (Or dislike of the Central powers, not entirely sure which), it seemed not entirely unreasonable that enough small scale butterflies would push towards an earlier DOW by the US.
 
A similar event happens in late 1914 in TTL. I used a real ship that went across the Atlantic at the time for the incident in question. Combined with Roosevelt's keenes on the Entente (Or dislike of the Central powers, not entirely sure which), it seemed not entirely unreasonable that enough small scale butterflies would push towards an earlier DOW by the US.


Is it an American ship?

It would need to be in order to make war a realistic proposition. Congress is very unlikely to declare it over anything that happens to a foreign one (even with Americans aboard) though TR may do some bluffing on this point in his notes to Berlin.

If the ship is British, expect the Lusitania notes (of course more strongly worded than Wilson's) a few months earlier, and Germany doing a hasty backpedal.
 
Trying this again with some edits and additions. Hopefully that much more plausible this time round:

USA:
President Taft falls down the stairs in the White House in April 1910 and dies after complications from the fall, leaving James Sherman to become the President.
Due to Sherman’s various health issues brought on due to the workload of the Presidency and announces his resignation before the 1912 election.
Due to his popularity and lack of a candidate who would still be electable, Roosevelt is nominated as the Republican candidate for President
William Jennings Bryan hesitates in the 1912 National Convention, letting Wilson read his concession speech and thus leaving the Democratic Party divided until Bryan grudgingly accepts Champ Clark as the candidate for the Democrats.
The Presidential election is bitterly contested between the two major candidates as Clark is unfairly labelled the stooge of business interests, hurting him in the eyes of the electorate while many of the Progressive Republicans turns to Roosevelt.
After a long and hard election, the vote is split thusly:
Roosevelt:
California – 11
Colorado – 6
Connecticut – 7
Delaware – 3
Idaho – 4
Illinois – 29
Indiana – 15
Iowa – 13
Kansas – 10
Maine – 6
Massachusetts – 18
Michigan – 15
Minnesota – 12
Missouri – 18
Montana – 4
Nebraska – 8
Nevada – 3
New Hampshire – 4
New Jersey – 14
New Mexico – 3
New York – 45
North Dakota – 5
Ohio – 24
Oregon – 5
Pennsylvania – 38
Rhode Island – 5
South Dakota – 5
Utah – 4
Vermont – 4
Washington – 7
West Virginia – 8
Wisconsin – 13
Wyoming – 3
Total – 369
Clark:
Alabama – 12
Arizona – 3
Arkansas – 9
Florida – 6
Georgia – 14
Kentucky – 13
Louisiana – 10
Maryland – 8
Mississippi – 10
North Carolina – 12
Oklahoma – 10
South Carolina – 9
Tennessee – 12
Texas – 20
Virginia – 12
Total – 160
With such a victory, Roosevelt’s Progressive platform is secured as he looks to change the face of America.
Other reforms such as social security and worker’s benefits attract Huey Long to the Party and he takes on an early interest in politics.
The outbreak of the First World War saw Roosevelt take a key interest in it and with Britain sending propaganda of German atrocities through the sole telegraph wire; Roosevelt built up support for entering the conflict and sent aid directly to Britain, causing the German Government to declare open warfare on any ships within British waters.
Roosevelt demands Germany to stop U-Boats in their attempt to blockade Britain despite the fact that US ships actively flaunt the blockade and prevent any real effect taking place, forcing Germany to ignore Roosevelt’s demands.
On the 18th October 1914, the Anchor Line Ship Cameronia was sunk by German U-Boats upon returning from the US costing 812 twelve lives, most of them American.
In response to the sinking of the Cameronia, the House and Senate both agree to declare War upon Germany and its allies, the US officially entering the War on the 5th November.
Huey Long enlists and is sent to the front as part of America’s first group of troops to be sent to the Western Front in time for the Battle of Champagne where a French assault is stymied by a desperate German attack against the green American troops.
Long survives throughout the battle, becoming more disillusioned as he sees thousands of men being thrown into the meat grinder and many American troops dying in the mud before the German assault.
The growth in American presence on the Western Front causes the German High Command to panic and waste the lives of thousands in futile attacks to break the lines of the Allies but with little effect aside from causing mass casualties on both sides.
To prevent their own troops dying in such a manner, Churchill opens up channels with the American Army to help fund and build a working tank, a working model being built for 1915 and mass production starting in the US for transport near the end of the year.
The German offensive eventually winds down in the summer of 1915 due to sheer exhaustion and troops being placed east to prevent Russia from capitalising on the stagnation of that front.
A tentative assault by the Allies starts in September of 1915 that sees a slow grinding of German troops back to their borders, Long earning himself the Legion of Honour and Medal of Honour for gallantry displayed during the assault despite his growing disheartening of the entire War.
The assault on Germany is joined by a mass amount of tanks at the end of 1915 that helps in breaking the lines and allowing the Allies to step onto German soil by the end of December.
Unable to push back the Western Allies and Russia holding on in the east, Germany surrenders in April 1916 with the rest of the Central Powers following soon after.
The following Treaty of Versailles sees Germany loses its colonies and is carved up considerably with Poland being made up of its eastern lands as a buffer for Russia, France regains Alsace and Lorraine while Germany has to pay reparations and see its Military greatly reduced.
Austro-Hungary loses its Slavic population to independent states while Russia gains Galicia. The Empire remains in rump form around Austria and Hungary.
Ottoman Empire loses its remaining influence outside of its Turkish borders and an inward rebellion overthrows the Sultanate before declaring a dictatorial republic. Russia gains free reign through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits for fifty years instead of the hoped for capture of Constantinople.
The various Treaties are signed from September 1916 to February 1917, ending the War and allowing US troops to come home as the country had gained port rights in the Caribbean and a large portion of the reparations, Roosevelt is re-elected on the results of the War.
A stronger Military presence along the border by the order of Roosevelt keeps the Mexican Revolution within its own borders although he eyes the chance to cement US influence over the region with eagerness.
Coming home, Long is honoured as a War hero for his actions but feels resentment over the War, believing American troops to having been used by the Allies as cannon fodder in their attacks.
Feelings over how American troops were used in the War raise as many veterans return, reporting their horrible experiences in the trenches. With the US not gaining a great deal by the War, severe questions arise as to the true point of having fought.
As things settle down in post-war US, the influx of veterans finding their old jobs having been taken by those who stayed at home causes even more large scale resentment. A Bill that is brought up in Congress to force the companies to return the jobs to their original places is publicly argued against by Roosevelt, citing that it would cause too much chaos.
The defeat of the Bill makes many veterans furious at Roosevelt, helping create the ‘stab in the back’ myth that the American soldiers had been sent out to die for European nations simply for money for the fat cats in Washington.
Long seizes upon these feelings, his own bitterness at having seen so many die for what he believed was nothing siding him with the Democrat Party as he entered politics, wanting justice for those who had been betrayed so badly by their government.
Believing that the Progressive Party’s platform would be unpopular due to its connection with Roosevelt, Long decides to start from the ground up with the Democrat Party, rising his way through the ranks as he sways people to his line of thinking convincing them to be for populist measures and a strong foreign policy.
In the aftermath of the US invasion and establishment of the bases in Mexico, Long starts campaigning for an end to what he felt was the imperialistic wars Roosevelt had embarked upon, saying that America should only fight in its own defence.
Roosevelt passes away in early 1918 just as the Mexico occupation was being finalised, leaving General Leonard Wood to become President amid growing unpopularity due to the occupation of Mexico and several policies by Roosevelt that had alienated many conservative elements of society.
As Long grows in popularity within the Democratic Party, he remains unable to cement his position as a true candidate for Governor due to his radical policies alienating the higher ups with the party.
Frustrated, Long gets a chance when he is approached by William J. Simmons who makes him a deal, the KKK would support him in the election through various secret in means in return that Long would support legislation that would help the lower class white man and prevent the curbing of KKK growth in the state.
After some inner debate, Long agrees to the deal and becomes the Democratic candidate for Louisiana after being accepted among the large swath and people and KKK members helping him gain influence amongst Democratic support.
In the 1920 Presidential elections, John W. Davis is elected as President, campaigning on isolationism, a stronger economy and conservative values.

Mexico:
The Mexican Revolution saw its path unfold with Huerta being killed in late 1914 by Revolutionary forces with the US unwilling to press any sort of pressure due to Roosevelt being heavily distracted by domestic issues.
Pancho Villa manages to manoeuvre himself into a position o power after the death of Huerta, gaining control of the capital and managing to just about hold onto power through use of the Military although a growing opposition in the countryside shook his regime from 1915-1917.
After a cache of rebel weapons is found to be from the US, Villa sends a force to probe Southern Texas to take out a gun smuggling operation.
The Mexican unit clashes with an American one on the Texan border before retreating after several casualties on both sides.
Leaping at the opportunity, Roosevelt sends an Army under General Pershing to overthrow the Villa Government and establish one more amenable to US interests.
American forces cross the border in September 1917 and strike hard at the Villa Government, marching into Mexico City and sending Villa fleeing to the countryside.
In Villa’s place, Manuel Pelaez is established as President of Mexico, being fairly popular in certain regions of Mexico, a strong Military man and open to American interests.
As Pelaez is established as President in early 1918, he agrees to have US bases installed around oil rich areas of Mexico to protect the interests of businesses there and preventing them from falling into the hands of Revolutionaries.
The move outrages opinion in Mexico and the US as it’s looked upon as blatant Imperialism by both sides and is criticised as another attempt by Roosevelt to line his pockets and those of the fat cats in Washington at the expense of the lives of US troops.
Following the election of President Davis, the chaos in Mexico centres on the south as US troops continue to enforce the order along the border.
Pelaez finds himself unable to regain control of the south due to a lack of popular support combined with US troops refusing to leave their bases beside the oil fields.
A de facto division of Mexico along north/south lines occurs and neither side is strong enough to tip the balance from 1921 onwards.

Britain:
John Kipling enters politics after the War, determined for similar conflicts to never happen again after coming home amidst his family thinking he had died, his father’s tears making him determined for there to be justice for those who lost loved ones and the Empire itself.
The Fourth Reform Act (Allowing men over twenty one without property requirements to vote) is passed in the months following the surrender of Germany.
An election follows with the Liberals retaining power albeit under a coalition government with Irish Nationals to get the Home Rule Bill finally put through.
With the German losses being heavier throughout the War, Ireland remains quiet and pressure from Roosevelt aids British forces in tracking down German arm shipments, weakening the militant arm of the Republicans.
Following the election, Asquith returns to Ireland and the Third Home Rule Bill comes into effect in 1917 which ravages the north with Unionist violence.
Despite his reluctance, Asquith orders in the Army to subdue Unionist violence amid great bloodshed before all sides are brought to Westminster to work on a compromise, creating the Fourth Home Rule Bill.
Under the Fourth Home Rule Bill, a vote of all the counties is taken in Ireland of which counties wanted to remain under an Ireland under home rule and those which wanted to remain with the UK.
With the vote taken, the six north-eastern ones decide to remain with the UK, separating under low key but constant violence in early 1919.
India also becomes an issue in the aftermath of the War as the government passes a Government of India Bill in late 1918 that is widely well received by many within the sub-continent.
Despite its successes, Asquith’s Government sees its support dip in mid-1919 due to faltering support over the violence in Ireland as well as growing economical troubles.
In the following election, the Conservatives gain a majority on the back of restoring order in Ireland and economic recovery.
John Kipling is elected in 1919 to the Conservative Party and despite his speaking difficulties, builds up a base of support for his speaking out on greater support for veterans beyond the borders of Britain.

Japan:
Japan gains all of Germany’s Asian colonies and sphere of influence in China.
Japan’s clashes with the US on its growing involvement in China stymies its attempts to get a mandate for Germany’s Pacific colonies, instead having to rethink these attempts as a suspicious America overlooks the Pacific with a new and powerful navy.
The Rice Riots are largely averted without major Japanese Military commitment elsewhere nonexistent and Terauchi Masatake passes away as Prime Minister in 1919.
In his place, Saitō Makoto becomes Prime Minister as a moderate in the political climate and pushes forward universal suffrage.
Despite opposition from traditionalists, suffrage for men with property over the age of twenty passes while women are granted more political rights than ever although denied suffrage.
The new political climate sees a greater Democratisation of Japan as the vote goes for parties that are founded along the lower classes with Socialist parties seeing a rise in their popularity.
Measures proposed by the Foreign Minister Hara Takashi to allow several parts of the Peace Preservation Laws to lapse in the face of growing support for greater political rights and his conciliatory moves towards Korea pegs him as a target to strike at in order to damage the Saitō Government.
A failed assassination attempt on Hara by a soldier heightens the tension between the civilian Government’s more moderate members and the hardliners in the Military and Government, the former wondering if the latter would try to enact a coup.
Tensions further rise as a strike in a dockyard at Tokyo takes place in defiance of Government measures against such actions which coincides and merges with a women’s suffrage march into a protest against the authoritarian measures in the Public Order and Police Law.
Keen to establish itself as the peace maker and the key power player in Japan, the Military send in units against the growing protests only for riots to start, some local units joining with the protestors as they join in stating their dissent against stringent Government measures.
With the situation getting out of hand, the Military demands to send in further units with the civilian Government resisting as the fear for a coup rises amid spiralling chaos in the capital.
As neither side gives in, Prince Regent Hirohito steps in to prevent an outright civil disturbance or Military overthrow of the Government and tells the Military to stay under the command of the civilian Government.
Forced to stand back, the Military loses a great deal of face as the civilian Government handles the protestors by some compromise of the Police Law’s more oppressive measures and 1922 opens with greater freedom of speech and political discourse throughout Japan.

Russia:
Tsar Nicholas II takes control of the Russian Army in the final days of World War One as he grows frustrated with the lack of land won against a weakening Germany.
Despite Nicholas’s conduct losing men and setting back the Allied War effort, Germany’s surrender comes and vindicates his role completely.
At the Treaty of Versailles, the independence of Austro-Hungary’s Slavic populations is used as a means to prevent further Russian claims on Turkey, Germany’s Polish lands being added to Russia as a further means to sweeten the deal.
Touting the War as a great victory, Nicholas finds his political position greatly strengthened and the Liberals in the Duma weakened.
Encouraged by his position, Nicholas II continues his resistance to any kind of reforms, even rolling back the ones he had already made and expelled the Duma.
This move enrages many in Russia, especially amongst the returning veterans and others who had hoped the War would change things for the better.
Riots follow in Moscow as workers clamour for their rights, forcing the Royal Family from the city.
During their escape, a brick is thrown into the Romanov’s carriage killing Alexei and sending the Tsar deep into despair.
The Russian Army brutally puts down the riots upon hearing about the death of the Prince and the Tsar abdicates to be with his family, leaving Grand Duke Michael to become Tsar after the Duma ratify him.
Wanting to satisfy both the conservatives and liberals, Tsar Michael agrees to land reform for the peasants but still refuses further political reform.
The Duma remains largely politically impotent while extremeist groups grow in popularity with Anarchist groups being the largest growing among them due to their opposition to the treachery of the Tsarist Government and a certain degree of disillusionment with Communism due to the failure of Bavaria.

Germany:
No Allies were to be found for Germany at Versailles as both France and Russia looked to weaken it completely, Japan hoped for its colonies, Britain was furious over an attempted plot to send weapons via the US to cause an uprising in India (Although that was stopped before it got underway) and the Roosevelt Administration was keen to weaken Germany for greater peace in Europe.
Germany is left broken and bankrupt in the aftermath of the War with many believing that the elite had completely messed up the War and allowed German territory to be invaded.
The unhappiness behind the loss of the War soon erupts in Bavaria as the Communist party stages a revolt in the region as several divisions of the German Army mutiny over pay.
Without the Army to help, the German Government sees Bavaria declare itself a Republic and can only watch on helplessly as the Bavarian People’s Republic is established.
Many Bolsheviks travel to Bavaria to help with the new Socialist state, Lenin and others becoming key figures in the government.
The German Army, sick of the civilian government being unable to stem the Communist surge and from seeming neglect, enacts a coup with Erich Ludendorff becoming the head of the new German government.
Working on the fear of a Communist Revolution spreading further, German diplomats are able to get the Allied nations to agree to spreading out the reparations and easing up the financial burden so that the German Army could at least be paid but remains at the numbers set by the Treaty of Versailles.
With a breathing period for payments, the German Army finally marches into Bavaria three months after the initial rebellion, crushing all resistance and bringing the region back under German control with Ludendorff now in command of the country.
After retaking Bavaria, Ludendorff establishes control over Germany, turning the nation into a Militarist state as much as he can under the terms of the Treaty of Versailles.
Using the Bavarian Republic as an excuse, Ludendorff tries to make the other European nations ease the restrictions by the Treaty for Germany’s armed forces but with little luck.
Instead, Ludendorff places as much emphasis as he can on advancing Military technology and the sciences, wanting to give Germany as much an edge as possible while derailing democratic principles, believing it was the civilian Government that had allowed Germany to lose the War.

Italy:
After only making minor gains in the Treaty of Versailles, the costs of the War seemed to be overwhelming to many.
In the ensuing political climate and the creation of the Bavarian People’s Republic, the right wing elements of Italy try to enact various ways to weaken the Communists within Italy.
One march against a Communist group in Turin ends in chaos when the leader of the Blackshirts, Mussolini, is shot dead from a gun by a Bavarian agent.
In response to this, Turin erupts into outright violence and chaos as the Communists signal for a general uprising against the right wing elements of government before they’re wiped out.
The uprising soon spreads as men and arms come from around Italy try to organise into a cohesive force.
The right in Italy eventually manages to rally around Rome, fighting riots there to organise their forces before striking into the north.
With various right wing factions vying for position in the aftermath of being forced south and the Army having a severe Communist sympathy to it, King Emmanuel III steps in to take control and appoints Roberto Farinacci as Prime Minister due to his ardent anti-Socialism and political support from the hard right of Italian politics.
After two months of chaos, the Italian Government sends it forces to finally stop the rioting with brutal force being used on the people within the cities.
Nearly an entire month passes before the riots are put down and the new authoritarian Italian Government regains control, albeit now placing greater restrictions than ever against Socialist and Communist parties, banning them outright and punishing those with similar sympathies.
 
So Roosevelt is reelected on the results of the war, and the people are upset about the lack of gains from the war? And they elected Teddy and didn't expect imperialism? This may need some explaination.
 
When you say Japan gains all of Germany's Asian colonies, did that include New Guinea? If so, I'm calling it an implausibility, because the Australians occuppied it and as such aren't going to just let it go.
 
So Roosevelt is reelected on the results of the war, and the people are upset about the lack of gains from the war? And they elected Teddy and didn't expect imperialism? This may need some explaination.

He was re-elected before TTL's Treaty of Versailles was signed and the full lack of US results was shown. There are other factors such as Teddy getting involved in Mexico at a time when people just wanted to get some stability back into their lives and then winding up having to occupy some on the country. Also, Teddy was elected on a Progressive platform, not an Imperialist one.

When you say Japan gains all of Germany's Asian colonies, did that include New Guinea? If so, I'm calling it an implausibility, because the Australians occuppied it and as such aren't going to just let it go.

No, Australia still got that as in OTL.
 
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