Few issues with soe of your Russian thoughts and i hope a few pointers:
1)Assuming that you have Nicholas at HQ during 1915 and early 1916 until peace youstill have the catastrophic rule of the Empress in the capital with Rasputin beside her. Which is going to do untold damage to the dynasty.
2) Nicholas is never going to concede further power to the Duma - he was completely committed to the autocracy and already believed as did his wife that by allowing the creation of the Duma following the 1905 revolution that he'd broken his coronation oath. Throughout 1915 and 16 he was pushed by entente ambassadors and his own family to reform the government and deal with his wife - his simply dithered and in the end ony listend to his wife. A victory in 1916 reduces the pressure on him but only slightly and he is still likely to remain unwilling to offer reform.
3) Nicholas and Alexandra's children rarely left Tsarskoe Selo outside Petrograd - much as his father had preferred the security of Gatchina - how you get Alexis to Moscow to be blown up is rather awkward for you given that both his parents were exceptionally careful not to permit anyone beyond their inner circle know how ill he was (in fact Nicholas' sisters didn'tknw for manyyears the exact nature of his illness).
4) You will have to deal with Rasputin - with a russian victory in 1916 it is increasingly unlikely that Yusupov and Grand Duke Dimitri Pavlovitch will still murder him as both acted out of desperation at what they saw as a threat to the tsarist regime - that still remains but the pressure with the war over is slightly reduced.
5) A surviving Tsarist regime is faced with two options futher reforms (that will probaby not go far enough or fast enough fo some) or further repression.
6) Succession - Nicholas' son could easily live to father a child but there is a strong chance he won't - that leaves Nicholas' brother Michael - however Nicholas had exiled Michael on his morganatic marriage and had never seen him as anything other than a young brother - he'd returned and done great war service much to the fury of Alexandra but he'd been removed from the regency (in the event of Nicholas dying before Alexis was of age). Michael was certainly more pragmatic and soem people like Witte thought highly of him but many others including some in the family didn't. HIs wife was known to have strong views and connections with many opponents of the regime in the Duma and it is likely that with victory Michael again would be forced into exile (unless he renounced his wife which he'd already refused to do so on numerous occassions). THe next heir was Cousin Kyril whose marriage had also offended and who was also fairly critical of Nicholas. All of this risks destabilising the regime - particularly when added to the fact that the couple had alienated almost all their family.
7) The propoganda that Alexandra was pro-german (which to be fair she wasn't) wont suddenly vanish with a victory - leaving you with a weak but autocratic Tsar with no clear heir and no hope of change, and with a wife who was unpopular not only with his family but with large sections of the educated and aristocratic populations whose support they would need in the new Russia.
1)Assuming that you have Nicholas at HQ during 1915 and early 1916 until peace youstill have the catastrophic rule of the Empress in the capital with Rasputin beside her. Which is going to do untold damage to the dynasty.
2) Nicholas is never going to concede further power to the Duma - he was completely committed to the autocracy and already believed as did his wife that by allowing the creation of the Duma following the 1905 revolution that he'd broken his coronation oath. Throughout 1915 and 16 he was pushed by entente ambassadors and his own family to reform the government and deal with his wife - his simply dithered and in the end ony listend to his wife. A victory in 1916 reduces the pressure on him but only slightly and he is still likely to remain unwilling to offer reform.
3) Nicholas and Alexandra's children rarely left Tsarskoe Selo outside Petrograd - much as his father had preferred the security of Gatchina - how you get Alexis to Moscow to be blown up is rather awkward for you given that both his parents were exceptionally careful not to permit anyone beyond their inner circle know how ill he was (in fact Nicholas' sisters didn'tknw for manyyears the exact nature of his illness).
4) You will have to deal with Rasputin - with a russian victory in 1916 it is increasingly unlikely that Yusupov and Grand Duke Dimitri Pavlovitch will still murder him as both acted out of desperation at what they saw as a threat to the tsarist regime - that still remains but the pressure with the war over is slightly reduced.
5) A surviving Tsarist regime is faced with two options futher reforms (that will probaby not go far enough or fast enough fo some) or further repression.
6) Succession - Nicholas' son could easily live to father a child but there is a strong chance he won't - that leaves Nicholas' brother Michael - however Nicholas had exiled Michael on his morganatic marriage and had never seen him as anything other than a young brother - he'd returned and done great war service much to the fury of Alexandra but he'd been removed from the regency (in the event of Nicholas dying before Alexis was of age). Michael was certainly more pragmatic and soem people like Witte thought highly of him but many others including some in the family didn't. HIs wife was known to have strong views and connections with many opponents of the regime in the Duma and it is likely that with victory Michael again would be forced into exile (unless he renounced his wife which he'd already refused to do so on numerous occassions). THe next heir was Cousin Kyril whose marriage had also offended and who was also fairly critical of Nicholas. All of this risks destabilising the regime - particularly when added to the fact that the couple had alienated almost all their family.
7) The propoganda that Alexandra was pro-german (which to be fair she wasn't) wont suddenly vanish with a victory - leaving you with a weak but autocratic Tsar with no clear heir and no hope of change, and with a wife who was unpopular not only with his family but with large sections of the educated and aristocratic populations whose support they would need in the new Russia.