Please comment on this, that would be most welcome! 
In this alternate scenario, Bismarck must retire during 1870 due to ill health. This isn’t that far fetched- his quasi-depression at seeing what he thought was a Prussian humilliation caused significant ill health. Thus, the Austro-Prussian war still happens as normal in 1866, resulting in the formation of the North German Confederation.
Thus, when the Prussians attempt to put a Prussian on the throne of Spain, the Prussians withdraw, as in our timeline.
However, the French were pushing for a full royal sanction from the withdrawal. Although without the advice of Bismarck the Prussian position is likely to weaken, it is unlikely that the Prussian would have accepted the demand. King Wilhelm would have likely given the same or similar response at Ems. What changes, though, is how it is presented. Bismarck isn’t there to edit the Ems telegram to redress what he saw as a Prussian humilliation. Thus, what the French saw as Wilhelm brushing off their ambassador never leaks and the French government does not see it in such serious terms. Whilst significant tensions still exist over the Prussian refusal to give a royal guarantee that they will never attempted to put a Hohenzollern of the throne of Spain, the main casus belli on 1870, the Prussian insult to French honour, never occurs. It is unlikely to precipitate into war.
The incident, as Bismarck fears, undermines Prussia in the international scene. Prussia’s growing reputation is smashed and they are no longer seen as invulnerable as their lightning defeats of Denmark and Austria would suggest. However, the bellicose move to put a Prussian on the throne of Spain, undermining the French sphere of influence, gets other powers increasingly worried about the Prussian disruption of the balance of power.
In our timeline, France was scrabbling to get allies, which it failed to, in the war. However, because of their victory in the Spanish affair, they have more time.
Negotations are drawn up with Victor Emmanuel, King of Italy. He joined Prussia in the Prussian-Austrian war in 1866, but felt insulted because Prussia had got the Austrians to sue for peace earlier without consulting them. A full French withdrawal from Rome is agreed in exchange for alliance with France, although this is kept clandestine for know (to avoid insulting the catholic sensibilities of the French)
Austria, sensing Prussian isolation, now seizes its moment. Factions within Austria are still bitter about the ratification of the Treaty of Prague, and the humilliation of Austria (and the subsequent victories of Hungarian nationalists in the 1867 compromise as well as the increasing deadlock in the Reichsrat due to liberal agitation in Austria mean, for now, Franz Joseph is willing to put aside his personal revulsion for Napoleon and sign a secret concordat, to re-claim lost spheres of influence and their role of the symbolic figurehead of Germany. He sees such an action as giving himself leverage to begin to dismantle the liberal and nationalistic headway made after the loss to Prussia.
Now here, there are two paths that could be taken.
1) The Russian Empire and the United Kingdom could be alarmed by what they perceive as French expansionism and make more formal ties with Prussia.
2) Both countries could remain supportive of Prussia, but due to fear of hegemony over Germany and in Britain's case a colonial Germany they do not make formal alliance.
In order for French victory, I will assume Path 2 occurs. I know this is slightly inadequate, but in order for the scenario to be fulfilled, we have to go down path 2. In Russia’s case, they probably would stay neutral (as in real life) because of the pan-Slavic opposition to a united German state.
Without Bismarck, Prussia is staggeringly isolated from the international scene. They have to resort to German nationalism to keep their ties to Catholic Bavaria amongst others, only forged after the Austro-Prussian war, alive. In around 1875-1880, Prussia makes a misguided attempted to form a united Germany, trying to integrate the South German kingdoms into the North German Confederation, re-naming it “The German Empire”. However without a war with France, this doesn’t gain much tract in Catholic Bavaria or other South German Kingdoms who still feel a more natural affinity with Austria. In our timeline, German nationalism was forged out of common cause against France; with no war with France, this transition is not seamless. France declares war to prevent a unified Germany tearing up the balance of powers, Austria declares war to “protect Southern Germany” and Italy also declares war, ostensibly to rectify its humilliation but in actuality to gain Rome.
In our timeline, France thought that it could easily win against Prussia. However, superior German tactics won the day and the war ended in the occupation of Paris by Prussian forces, formation of the German union at Versailles, the fall of the Second French Empire in favour of the Third Republic and the beginning of the Franco-German enmity due to the annexation of Alsace-Lorraine by Germany.
However in this timeline, Germany is surrounded on all sides. It is unable to keep its defences in the face of the French and Austrian attack. It stands little chance.
The war lasts a year, due to superior Prussian tactics, but still results in a Prussian loss.
In the Second Treaty of Prague, Prussia is forced to dissolve the North German Confederation (set up as annexations in the aftermath of the Austro-Prussian war) and around 25 feudal German states are re-released. The German Confederation is set up again, with Austria once again invited. Austria is allowed again to join German politics and Prussia must accept Austrian dominance over German politics. Prussia also loses Silesia to Austria and parts of the Rhineland to France. Although Prussia’s sphere of influence over North Germany is smashed, its economic advantage reduced by crippling reparations. Both France and Austria have a vested intrest in destroying Prussia as a threat; such a treaty is likely to be harsh and eliminate Prussia a player in German politics, although unlikely to result in its complete destruction.
The new German Confederation, however, is far from identical to the old. France now has territory inside the Confederation (as well as spheres of influence) meaning that France undermines Austrian hegemony over German politics. Relations begin to sour.
Prussia was forced to stoke pan-Germanic nationalism in order to maintain its ties with German states, who were historically allied with Austria. This means that there is widespread unrest in Germany demanding an acceptance of the Frankfurt declaration of Union in 1875-1880. This is especially chronic in the North, who were integrated into the North German Confederation for around a decade.
This means Austria has to take seriously German unification, but for now that is coupled with a reluctance to split their empire. Moreover, the Austrian collaboration with the French has seriously weakened their credibility outside the Empire, so the path to unification is not straightforward.
Before that, let's talk international consequences. Britain now sees in plain terms that Napoleon III is an aggressor, and Napoleonic era fears begin to rise. The Russo-British entente is signed in around 1880, both united in fear of French expansionism, and, in Russia’s case, gaining territory from Austria. This alliance does weaken the possibility that Austria turns on France and signs an alliance with Great Britain, due to the Russo-Austrian enmity (caused primarily by the Crimean War but also the recent events with France). Austria is stuck with an alliance with France to prop up the increasing house of cards which is the German Confederation.
Remember at around this time the Scramble for Africa is kicking off. Britain is even more aggressive and opposes French expansions, determined not to give ground to France under any circumstances. . In our timeline, there were multiple close calls with France over colonial disputes that could have led to war.
In this timeline, tensions crystallise into war. Britain is far more antagonistic to France, and a colonial dispute rises again to war. It is also possible that a dispute over Belgium (an emboldened France might violently re-assert their claim) rises to war with Britain. This may be around the late 1880s-1890s.
Italy stays neutral, as it felt it didn't gain enough from the wars. However, Britain stokes revolt in Germany against Austria, which remains allied with France and is also involved in the scramble for Africa. It is possible that a weakened Prussia still decides to join the war.
The growing power of the French land armies mean that is unlikely that Prussia or any other continental power would now be able to challenge the French. However the colonies might be another story- the British navy meant a British victory there would be probably. The war ends in a stalemate, with French continental gains in Belgium and perhaps at the expense of a weakened Prussia but loses in the colonies. It is seen as a humiliation; it might result in the downfall of Napoleon III or IV (depending on whether he still dies in the 1870s). Austria can, if it hasn’t already, claim complete control of Prussia and neutralise it as a threat.
Russia does well against Austria, though, with the growing power of its land army and its growing industrialization, spurred on by growing British investment. It might result in territorial gains in Galicia. The exposing of Austrian weakness again means that the Austrians realise what a perilous course of action they are taking by not embracing a German state and re-think their policy on the indissoluble framework of the empire. Liberals are empowered to begin work on turning the German Confederation into a united Germanic state, infuriating France.
Probably in around 1900-1910, enough groundwork has been laid for Austria to proceed with unification. In order to do so and maintain the balance of power, Franz Joseph abdicates the throne of Hungary to a close relation. This is done with the aim of avoiding a major disruption to the balance of power which could prompt great power intervention. There we must start to divert into speculation. The French would oppose a wholesale United Germany as it would threaten their position, so perhaps would Russia. There are 2 reasons why they wouldn’t intervene.
a) A deal could be struck where France annexes its spheres of influence in Germany
b) Britain restrains Russia from intervention, so an Austrian Germany can serve as a bulwark to French expansion.
Although it is very conceivable that any declaration of union spills into war, this is my best guess about what would happen if Germany was proclaimed, with its capital in Vienna, as a result of this scenario.
Any further would probably err the wrong side of speculation, so I will stop. I hope you found this sound and interesting. Please share your thoughts!
In this alternate scenario, Bismarck must retire during 1870 due to ill health. This isn’t that far fetched- his quasi-depression at seeing what he thought was a Prussian humilliation caused significant ill health. Thus, the Austro-Prussian war still happens as normal in 1866, resulting in the formation of the North German Confederation.
Thus, when the Prussians attempt to put a Prussian on the throne of Spain, the Prussians withdraw, as in our timeline.
However, the French were pushing for a full royal sanction from the withdrawal. Although without the advice of Bismarck the Prussian position is likely to weaken, it is unlikely that the Prussian would have accepted the demand. King Wilhelm would have likely given the same or similar response at Ems. What changes, though, is how it is presented. Bismarck isn’t there to edit the Ems telegram to redress what he saw as a Prussian humilliation. Thus, what the French saw as Wilhelm brushing off their ambassador never leaks and the French government does not see it in such serious terms. Whilst significant tensions still exist over the Prussian refusal to give a royal guarantee that they will never attempted to put a Hohenzollern of the throne of Spain, the main casus belli on 1870, the Prussian insult to French honour, never occurs. It is unlikely to precipitate into war.
The incident, as Bismarck fears, undermines Prussia in the international scene. Prussia’s growing reputation is smashed and they are no longer seen as invulnerable as their lightning defeats of Denmark and Austria would suggest. However, the bellicose move to put a Prussian on the throne of Spain, undermining the French sphere of influence, gets other powers increasingly worried about the Prussian disruption of the balance of power.
In our timeline, France was scrabbling to get allies, which it failed to, in the war. However, because of their victory in the Spanish affair, they have more time.
Negotations are drawn up with Victor Emmanuel, King of Italy. He joined Prussia in the Prussian-Austrian war in 1866, but felt insulted because Prussia had got the Austrians to sue for peace earlier without consulting them. A full French withdrawal from Rome is agreed in exchange for alliance with France, although this is kept clandestine for know (to avoid insulting the catholic sensibilities of the French)
Austria, sensing Prussian isolation, now seizes its moment. Factions within Austria are still bitter about the ratification of the Treaty of Prague, and the humilliation of Austria (and the subsequent victories of Hungarian nationalists in the 1867 compromise as well as the increasing deadlock in the Reichsrat due to liberal agitation in Austria mean, for now, Franz Joseph is willing to put aside his personal revulsion for Napoleon and sign a secret concordat, to re-claim lost spheres of influence and their role of the symbolic figurehead of Germany. He sees such an action as giving himself leverage to begin to dismantle the liberal and nationalistic headway made after the loss to Prussia.
Now here, there are two paths that could be taken.
1) The Russian Empire and the United Kingdom could be alarmed by what they perceive as French expansionism and make more formal ties with Prussia.
2) Both countries could remain supportive of Prussia, but due to fear of hegemony over Germany and in Britain's case a colonial Germany they do not make formal alliance.
In order for French victory, I will assume Path 2 occurs. I know this is slightly inadequate, but in order for the scenario to be fulfilled, we have to go down path 2. In Russia’s case, they probably would stay neutral (as in real life) because of the pan-Slavic opposition to a united German state.
Without Bismarck, Prussia is staggeringly isolated from the international scene. They have to resort to German nationalism to keep their ties to Catholic Bavaria amongst others, only forged after the Austro-Prussian war, alive. In around 1875-1880, Prussia makes a misguided attempted to form a united Germany, trying to integrate the South German kingdoms into the North German Confederation, re-naming it “The German Empire”. However without a war with France, this doesn’t gain much tract in Catholic Bavaria or other South German Kingdoms who still feel a more natural affinity with Austria. In our timeline, German nationalism was forged out of common cause against France; with no war with France, this transition is not seamless. France declares war to prevent a unified Germany tearing up the balance of powers, Austria declares war to “protect Southern Germany” and Italy also declares war, ostensibly to rectify its humilliation but in actuality to gain Rome.
In our timeline, France thought that it could easily win against Prussia. However, superior German tactics won the day and the war ended in the occupation of Paris by Prussian forces, formation of the German union at Versailles, the fall of the Second French Empire in favour of the Third Republic and the beginning of the Franco-German enmity due to the annexation of Alsace-Lorraine by Germany.
However in this timeline, Germany is surrounded on all sides. It is unable to keep its defences in the face of the French and Austrian attack. It stands little chance.
The war lasts a year, due to superior Prussian tactics, but still results in a Prussian loss.
In the Second Treaty of Prague, Prussia is forced to dissolve the North German Confederation (set up as annexations in the aftermath of the Austro-Prussian war) and around 25 feudal German states are re-released. The German Confederation is set up again, with Austria once again invited. Austria is allowed again to join German politics and Prussia must accept Austrian dominance over German politics. Prussia also loses Silesia to Austria and parts of the Rhineland to France. Although Prussia’s sphere of influence over North Germany is smashed, its economic advantage reduced by crippling reparations. Both France and Austria have a vested intrest in destroying Prussia as a threat; such a treaty is likely to be harsh and eliminate Prussia a player in German politics, although unlikely to result in its complete destruction.
The new German Confederation, however, is far from identical to the old. France now has territory inside the Confederation (as well as spheres of influence) meaning that France undermines Austrian hegemony over German politics. Relations begin to sour.
Prussia was forced to stoke pan-Germanic nationalism in order to maintain its ties with German states, who were historically allied with Austria. This means that there is widespread unrest in Germany demanding an acceptance of the Frankfurt declaration of Union in 1875-1880. This is especially chronic in the North, who were integrated into the North German Confederation for around a decade.
This means Austria has to take seriously German unification, but for now that is coupled with a reluctance to split their empire. Moreover, the Austrian collaboration with the French has seriously weakened their credibility outside the Empire, so the path to unification is not straightforward.
Before that, let's talk international consequences. Britain now sees in plain terms that Napoleon III is an aggressor, and Napoleonic era fears begin to rise. The Russo-British entente is signed in around 1880, both united in fear of French expansionism, and, in Russia’s case, gaining territory from Austria. This alliance does weaken the possibility that Austria turns on France and signs an alliance with Great Britain, due to the Russo-Austrian enmity (caused primarily by the Crimean War but also the recent events with France). Austria is stuck with an alliance with France to prop up the increasing house of cards which is the German Confederation.
Remember at around this time the Scramble for Africa is kicking off. Britain is even more aggressive and opposes French expansions, determined not to give ground to France under any circumstances. . In our timeline, there were multiple close calls with France over colonial disputes that could have led to war.
In this timeline, tensions crystallise into war. Britain is far more antagonistic to France, and a colonial dispute rises again to war. It is also possible that a dispute over Belgium (an emboldened France might violently re-assert their claim) rises to war with Britain. This may be around the late 1880s-1890s.
Italy stays neutral, as it felt it didn't gain enough from the wars. However, Britain stokes revolt in Germany against Austria, which remains allied with France and is also involved in the scramble for Africa. It is possible that a weakened Prussia still decides to join the war.
The growing power of the French land armies mean that is unlikely that Prussia or any other continental power would now be able to challenge the French. However the colonies might be another story- the British navy meant a British victory there would be probably. The war ends in a stalemate, with French continental gains in Belgium and perhaps at the expense of a weakened Prussia but loses in the colonies. It is seen as a humiliation; it might result in the downfall of Napoleon III or IV (depending on whether he still dies in the 1870s). Austria can, if it hasn’t already, claim complete control of Prussia and neutralise it as a threat.
Russia does well against Austria, though, with the growing power of its land army and its growing industrialization, spurred on by growing British investment. It might result in territorial gains in Galicia. The exposing of Austrian weakness again means that the Austrians realise what a perilous course of action they are taking by not embracing a German state and re-think their policy on the indissoluble framework of the empire. Liberals are empowered to begin work on turning the German Confederation into a united Germanic state, infuriating France.
Probably in around 1900-1910, enough groundwork has been laid for Austria to proceed with unification. In order to do so and maintain the balance of power, Franz Joseph abdicates the throne of Hungary to a close relation. This is done with the aim of avoiding a major disruption to the balance of power which could prompt great power intervention. There we must start to divert into speculation. The French would oppose a wholesale United Germany as it would threaten their position, so perhaps would Russia. There are 2 reasons why they wouldn’t intervene.
a) A deal could be struck where France annexes its spheres of influence in Germany
b) Britain restrains Russia from intervention, so an Austrian Germany can serve as a bulwark to French expansion.
Although it is very conceivable that any declaration of union spills into war, this is my best guess about what would happen if Germany was proclaimed, with its capital in Vienna, as a result of this scenario.
Any further would probably err the wrong side of speculation, so I will stop. I hope you found this sound and interesting. Please share your thoughts!
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