Let There Be Peace in the Great European Plain: A History of Teutons and Slavs in the 19th Century.

ACT 1
“The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia.”
-Otto von Bismarck.


ACT 1:


“The White Negroes of Europe”: The History of Persecution of the Polish People, by Piotr S. Wandycz.

It would be incredibly hard to pinpoint the moment when Poles became the most undesirable people of the European continent, taking the crown that previously belonged to the Jews. Effectively, ever since the concept of “Polish” has existed, someone somewhere has had a reason to hate us. Like the Spanish, the Poles’ golden age lies far back in the past, when ships were still made of wood and most Slavs of the world lived under the yoke of some Germanic or Turkic oppressor. Unlike the Spanish, however, the Polish descent into powerlessness was dramatic and, although not unpredictable, very swift. The Kingdom of Spain had the luck of lying at the very tip of peninsular Europe, surrounded by water, while Poland was located on a flat plain, without a single friendly neighbor to speak of.


At least some of the blame for this can be placed on the complacency of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth’s rulers, as they silently watched the rise of Prussia in the 18th century and did very little to stop it. Furthermore, there was no worst point in history to double down on serfdom, as the Polish nobility did during the country's twilight. When the Industrial Revolution hit Western Europe, Poland, as well as its West Slavic neighbors under the Austrian crown, was tied down as a grain exporter to bustling French and British cities, all to benefit the nobility of the country. By the 1760’s, the Polish economy had been completely surpassed by regions it previously dwarfed, such as Italy and Russia. Far before the Ottoman Empire earned the nickname “Sick Man of Europe”, Poland was already a stagnant power amidst rising ones.

Obviously, this led to the infamous partitions of the country. Disdain for the Polish people and their culture are most likely born out of this seminal moment, as Poles were no longer the core of a single sovereign state, but minorities in multiple larger countries. Once they were subjected to that situation, though, the Polish people did not comply with their conquerors. In 1830, the populace of Congress Poland rebelled against their status as tools and tax payers for the Tsars, which led the uprising to be crushed brutally by a Cossack savage under the orders of the Russian state, Ivan Paskevich. The same man would also lead the Imperial Russian Army in a campaign in Galicia during the Springtime of Peoples, to prevent the Poles from freeing themselves from the Hapsburgs’ grip.

All of these were significant to the balance of European power in some manner, such as the 1848 intervention indebting the Hapsburgs to the Romanovs and paving the way for their disgrace when they did not pay back. Still, the most important and relevant to understand the current situation of the Polish people is undeniably the Wiśniewski Case. June 24th, 1878, went down in history as the day that proved our “sly manners” and why we must be kept down. The sheer level of outrage following the events that took place in Bonn effectively flipped the course of European history, being directly or indirectly responsible for events like the collapse of Western European colonialism and the death of Europe’s socialist movement.

Firstly, however, there must be a bit of context. In the previous decades, the main player seeking to capitalize on the decline of the Ottoman Empire had been Russia. Over the course of the 19th century, the Tsars tried repeatedly to break out of their cage in the Black Sea to reach further out into the world’s oceans. The main opposition to this was Britain, who, with control of the Suez Canal and the Strait of Gibraltar, was the preeminent naval power in the Mediterranean. In 1853, for example, Britain effectively swayed the direction of the Crimean War by destroying the Russian fleet at Sinop, thus allowing for landings on Russia’s coastal territories. That same protectiveness towards the declining Ottomans couldn’t be upheld for long, though.

In 1876, the brutal suppression of a Bulgarian uprising sent ripples throughout Christendom, as influential figures condemned the Ottomans for the treatment of their ethnic minorities. Due to the great public disapproval, Britain couldn’t intervene when Russia declared war on the Ottomans in the following year, which led to a crushing Russian victory and the humiliating Treaty of San Stefano. The terms of the treaty essentially swept away all Ottoman influence in the Balkans, as a Greater Bulgaria was put forward, which had access to both the Black and Aegean seas, therefore presenting a way for Russian naval power projection to go around the Turkish Straits.

Heavy opposition to the treaty from the international community forced Russia to accept a revisioning, which was to take place in Berlin, since Germany offered itself to be a neutral mediator. In the summer of 1878, the most powerful men in the continent gathered around a round table to discuss the fates of millions who lived in Southeastern Europe, despite the fact that those same people weren’t given much of a say in it. It was in this political environment that Paweł Wiśniewski decided to do what would forever stamp his picture on history books: the attempted assassination of the heir to the imperial throne of Germany [1].

Although there have been many biographies written on him over the years, the most acclaimed one having an ex-roommate of his as author, I’ll offer just a small bit of background on the Polish Madman before proceeding. He was born in Silesia, to a poor family with four other children, but the fact that he was sent to live with an aunt in Krakow during his teen years would drive much of the conversation surrounding him. After learning the trade of locksmith, he moved back to Germany and stayed in the region of Silesia until his mother’s death, in 1874. Because he knew at least some form of broken German, Wiśniewski moved to the Rhineland in search of better employment.

No one can be sure of why he chose that specific moment to do what he did, since he had been living relatively close to the University of Bonn, where Prince Wilhelm studied, for a few years by then. Maybe it was the fact that the Balkan peoples whose fates were being decided held little to no sway over decisions in the Congress of Berlin, which reminded him of how Poles had been thrown around like a bag of potatoes by St. Petersburg, Berlin and Vienna. Alternatively, it might have seemed to him incredibly hypocritical that the Austro-Hungarians, who had no qualm about partitioning Poland with the Russians, were now decrying the Treaty of San Stefano so vehemently.

Still, what matters are his actions, not the reasoning behind them. Paweł chose the 24th of June, the same date Napoleon invaded Russia, to infiltrate Prince Wilhelm’s university, blending in with the institution’s staff. However, before reaching the wing where the Hohenzollern heir was at that moment, he was discovered by a student. There was a pistol concealed in his jacket, which he pulled out in desperation, shooting the youth who revealed him, Felix Müller, twice in the chest, which caused him to die a few days later due to the injuries. This stirred the surrounding crowd, and a teacher tried taking the gun from Wiśniewski, who then fired a warning shot that grazed the teacher’s head and caused him to throw himself at the ground.

The Pole then tried to run after the prince, who had, on his account, already heard the shots but didn’t know exactly what was happening and where he should go. This miscommunication almost allowed the attempted murder to succeed, as the assassin had the time to reach the room where Wilhelm was chatting with his friends. Once he saw what was in Paweł’s hand, though, the future emperor of Germany tried to flee. He and two other students ran to the exit, and in response Wiśniewski pulled the trigger one last time, only hitting the leg of one of Wilhelm’s friends. He was then tackled to the ground by a group of students and teachers who managed to catch up to the invader.

After the local police force detained him, the Pole was taken to a secret location to be interrogated. The debriefing given to morning newspapers by the authorities in the morning stated that Wiśniewski had acted alone, which was confirmed by documents released a few decades later. As far as anyone knows, the man had no connection to the underground organizations that fought for Polish independence later on. The trial was scheduled for Thursday, three days after the attack, which proved a very, very bad idea considering the unrest that ensued in the meantime.

“Czarny Wtorek”, which means Black Tuesday in Polish, was how the Polish community of the German Empire dubbed the events of the day following Wiśniewski’s arrest. Although the attempted assassination took place in Northern Rhineland, in the westernmost part of the country, the regions that saw the fiercest backlash were West Prussia and Posen, which housed most of the empire’s 3 million strong Polish population. Violence and looting by German citizens became commonplace in Polish neighborhoods that day, especially Polish businesses and churches, since the Catholic Church was seen as inherently Polish in the eastern parts of the country. When it wasn’t actively taking part in the crimes against Poles, the German police force turned a blind eye to everything.

By far the moment people remember the most is the burning of the Posen Cathedral. A German mob gathered around the building in the afternoon of June 25th, to begin another round of looting and lynching, but something went differently. It is not clear how the fire began, but the crowd soon worked to increase the flames, and then exited the cathedral in droves as it burned down. The German government quickly trialed and imprisoned half a dozen people, which wasn’t nearly as many as were present. An apology was also sent directly to the pope for the actions of a few “misguided patriots” and Berlin offered to pay for half of the reparation expanses. In Saturday, after a sham trial in the previous day, Wiśniewski was barbarically hanged in front of a cheering crowd in the Ruhr Valley and his family members were not allowed to disclose where they buried the body [2].

All of this represented a major change in the zeitgeist of Germany at the time. For most of its short history as a unified state, the young nation considered Kulturkampf, the battle for influence between the Catholic Church and the mostly Protestant government, as its greatest tribulation. Now, though, the uncomfortable existence of ethnic minorities in what was supposed to be a perfectly Deutsch country was brought to light, which had previously been just a concern of the eastern section. People in places like Hamburg and Frankfurt now asked themselves if they should be concerned about the behavior of their non-German neighbors. Jews, Frisians, French... They were all suspect now, although none to the same extent as the hateful Pole. Truly, if Wiśniewski thought his actions could possibly lead to a free Poland, his mind must have been most disturbed.

Mitteleuropa: The German Dream, by Fritz Fischer.

Bismarck once summarized the entirety of German history in a single sentence: “Here is Russia and here is France, and we are in the middle”. Although environmental determinism has been repeatedly disproven by countries like Korea, which have overcome their natural hurdles to develop and become great nations, the history of Germany is probably the best argument in favor of that theory. Its position right in the middle of Europe can be broadly imputed with guilt for why its history went down the way it did, even if a few individuals’ decisions did play a large role in it too.

Like I said, ever since Caesars ruled a quarter of humanity from palaces in Rome, Germany was naturally built for disunity, war and a primitive form of colonization. Before revolutions in agriculture in the Medieval Period, the region was sparsely inhabited, especially when compared to its larger, wealthier and more influential neighbor of France, which led to the building of small communities far away from each other. Further down the line, knights and castles gave local authorities an immense amount of power, even more so in the mountainous south. Meanwhile, the flat north was dominated by trading leagues and faced constant incursions from Scandinavia.

However, these factors came together to make Germany an eastward facing nation. To the west, homogenous and unified empires like France and the Netherlands ran off to chase world domination during the Age of Exploration, while puny German duchies argued over a town or another. To the south, the Hapsburgs and their marriage schemes halted most chances of reform in Southeastern Europe, so what was left was to carve up uncivilized Slavic land to the east. Furthermore, expanding eastward didn’t require a lot of effort because of the flatness of the Great European Plain. This mentality, of looking to Central Europe for its ambitions, culminated in the Teutonic Order and the colonization of the Baltic coastline.

This didn’t really change when the country unified. There was still a fear that, being sandwiched from all sides by Great Powers and in a barely defensible position, Germany could still be reduced to a patchwork of states due to a massive war. Although the Iron Chancellor had guided Germany to unify through, in his own words, iron and blood, he still feared what a large European war, in the scale the Napoleonic ones, could do to the young nation. So, he worked to keep a diplomatic system where Mitteleuropa would be immune from war. His plans were completely derailed by the Wiśniewski Case, however.

Wilhelm I’s infamous distaste for Catholics and their practices was nothing compared to how he referred to Poles after the attack upon his grandson. Some eyewitnesses declared that the Kaiser had a meeting with Bismarck a few hours after the incident became public, and this meeting likely was the one that changed the fate of Germany forever. From then on, antagonizing Russia was out of the question for German geopolitical strategy, since a war between the two would almost certainly end with an independent Polish state.

This new factor was like a monkey ranch in the engine of Bismarck’s Realpolitik, which heavily relied on flexibility and the fact that Germany could flip flop between alliances. Up until then, the Reichskanzler had always sought to side with two others of the five Great Powers in geopolitical matters, so to create a negotiating bloc powerful enough to dissuade anyone thinking of war. Therefore, Germany’s role from its foundation all the way to Bismarck’s departure had been primarily reactive, identifying when a two-power bloc was formed and then joining it regardless of what the matter was. In the Congress of Berlin, the carve up of the Ottoman Empire had brought Britain and Austria-Hungary together out of fear of a growth in Russian influence, while France remained relatively haphazard towards the subject. Usually, the Iron Chancellor would have approached the British and Austro-Hungarians, even though he always thought befriending Russia should be the cornerstone of German politics. But, as I said, societal unrest resulting from Wiśniewski’s actions changed everything.

Despite the fact that Germany had the most powerful land army in the world by that point, thus allowing it to push Russia’s agenda in the talks if needed, Bismarck still preferred a three power-bloc to avoid paving the way for war further down the line. Since Britain didn’t have real stakes in the affair, only involving itself for fear of the growing Russian influence, nothing could really be offered to convince the British ambassador to revert his anti-Russia position. Meanwhile, France, due to the lingering discontent for the Franco-Prussian War, was automatically opposed to any German proposal. This left Austria-Hungary, whose long and troubled history with Russia made a deal almost impossible. Still, Gorchakov, the Russian diplomat, made it clear that no talks about the Polish Question would be answered before some large, Russophile state was born in the Balkans.

When mediating the talks between the Austro-Hungarians and Russians, the main issue faced by the Germans was distrust. Discussions often revolved around the multitude of pacts with Austria-Hungary that Russia broke when it wrote the Treaty of San Stefano, mainly the Budapest Convention, which explicitly prohibited the creation of a large Slavic state in the Balkans. Bismarck responded to the Austro-Hungarian concerns by stating that Vienna’s recent history didn’t add to its credibility either, considering its neutrality in the Crimean War. Furthermore, Russia’s actions regarding Bulgaria could even be considered compensation for having to face Britain, France and the Ottoman Empire alone in 1853. However, the representatives of the Hapsburgs still feared that, if left unchecked, Bulgaria would try pushing other nations, mainly Serbia, to meddle in Vienna’s backyard, so to distract them from Sofia’s own ambitions.

In order to curb that sentiment, the western gains made by the Bulgarians in the Treaty of San Stefano had to be curtailed. This resulted in the newly acquired Macedonian territories being greatly diminished, as the new border became the Vardar River [3]. The Austro-Hungarians hoped that, if enough of Macedonia was left out of Bulgaria’s grasp, the country would go to war with its neighbors to gain more, thus distracting everyone from Austria-Hungary's own dealing in Bosnia-Herzegovina. In exchange for backing this new version of Bulgaria, which was smaller than San Stefano’s but still far bigger than what the British wanted, the Austro-Hungarian Empire demanded a reinsurance of the other terms of the Budapest Convention.

Because the Russian state had proven its unwillingness to uphold the contracts previously set forth by Austria-Hungary, Count Andrássy demanded that Germany acted as guarantor of said agreement. Russia should cease its support for irredentist and nationalistic organizations in the Balkan countries, namely Serbia, under the possible punishment of economic sanctions from both Berlin and Vienna. Since support for said organizations was hard to verify in an international court, this clause played second fiddle to the main one: the Tsar should acknowledge, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that Bosnia-Herzegovina lied in the hands of the Hapsburgs, as well as retract any military support for a Balkan nation that sought military gains north of the Danube. Bismarck hoped that, with these terms, Russia would have to secure Austria-Hungary's interests in order to achieve its own, thus making the two allies unwillingly and consequently creating a two-power bloc Germany could join.

With the terms between Russia and Austria-Hungary settled, Gorchakov finally sat down to talk about measures for the Poles. The Austro-Hungarians also had a vested interest in the discussion due to their ownership of Galicia, so Count Andrássy was invited to the talks as well. It’s from this discussion that the Russian ambassador's most memorable quote comes, as he spoke in German with a heavy Russian accent: “kein Polen; je” (no Poland; ever). Put simply, the three powers agreed to work together towards preventing the Polish people from ever gaining independence. On any side of the borders, Polish independence movements would be viciously crushed wherever they sprung up. Furthermore, to prevent the lack of geographical boundaries from causing border tensions between the German and Russian empires, Bismarck and Gorchakov agreed that, whatever the future held, the two wouldn’t support territorial changes as result of conflicts they weren’t directly involved in.

Therefore, the Congress of Berlin ended with an amicable agreement between Russia and Austria-Hungary, who was even able to wash away some of the stain of its cowardice during the Crimean War. Most importantly, there was a pretty big shift in the German zeitgeist about Russia. Instead of a remote and foreign land, full of people who worshipped a weird Jesus, Russia was now an ally in keeping control of the Mitteleuropa that they had dreamed about. It effectively seemed to be the end of the dream of an independent Polska, as Poles would become akin lighter-skinned Armenians, pressed into powerlessness by the surrounding empires. From then on, most people expected Central Europe to finally know peace. Such assertions become morbidly funny considering the future the region would have.


[1] The main premise for this TL is pretty much “what if the Dreikaiserbund endured?”. In order to make that happen, I needed something that pushed Russia, Austria-Hungary and Germany to work together in the European scene. So, what do they all have in common? Polish minorities. To make the Poles a problem big enough to pull the three great powers together, I came up with this quasi-terror attack which, although not high in number of casualties, is meant to shock the population into demanding action from the government.

[2] If the character author sounds a bit emotional when describing a fact, be it very criticaly or very complimentary, that’s because, considering his/her background, they’d have a reason to do so. In this case, the author is Polish and is describing what he considers disproportional excitement towards a Pole’s execution.

[3] The border between Austria-Hungary and Bosnia-Herzegovina is still there to show that the region hasn’t been formally annexed. Yet.

treaty of berlin.png
 
Interesting basis.

I'm sure there would be even more Polish emigration, after their organisations are basically considered as the TTL equivalent of Al Qaeda.

Will Austria-Hungary promises bits of Turkey as a compromise on the Balkan question?

And the HEartland Theory might be even more noticed TTL, with a large part of Eurasia under the control of a bloc.
 
As with the last run, gonna keep an eye on this. The terrifying thing about the Dreikaiserbund is what it could do if it somehow endured - all of Central and Eastern Europe, and only one flank to truly worry about in a military sense.
 
Interesting basis.

I'm sure there would be even more Polish emigration, after their organisations are basically considered as the TTL equivalent of Al Qaeda.

Will Austria-Hungary promises bits of Turkey as a compromise on the Balkan question?

And the HEartland Theory might be even more noticed TTL, with a large part of Eurasia under the control of a bloc.
You, sir, read my mind. Petersen's theory will bear as much weight in this timeline's international community as the domino theory did in our world.
Edit: Mackinder's theory. I mixed the two because of Petersen's the World Island, which tackles similar themes.
 
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Interesting basis.

I'm sure there would be even more Polish emigration, after their organisations are basically considered as the TTL equivalent of Al Qaeda.

Will Austria-Hungary promises bits of Turkey as a compromise on the Balkan question?

And the HEartland Theory might be even more noticed TTL, with a large part of Eurasia under the control of a bloc.

What is the Heartland theory?
 
ACT 2
ACT 2:
“The White Negroes of Europe”: The History of Persecution of the Polish People, by Piotr S. Wandycz.

The turn of the decade, from the 1870’s to the 1880’s, is the historical twilight of Poles. There were, yes, moments in history when the Polish people went through worse hurdles, but that period specifically was when their status as second-class citizens became set in stone. The attempted assassination of a member of the royal family would have already been a national scandal, but Wiśniewski targeted the young prince during a period of distinct political tension in Germany.

Over the past few months before the incident in Bonn, there had been a growing antagonization of the German socialist movement. Although most of it was orchestrated by conservative politicians of Germany’s establishment, socialist sympathizers did give reasons for the Teutonic middle and upper classes to worry. The Kaiser himself had been a target, not once, but twice of assassinations. German society was just recovering from the second attempted murder, by Dr. Nobiling in the 2nd of June, when Paweł infiltrated the University of Bonn. In such a short time span, these attacks gave credence to the idea that there was some form of conspiracy being concocted by socialists and minorities to change Germany in some radical manner, unless something was done to stop them.

However, Germany under Bismarck had taken impressive steps to make sure that the socialists had few anchorage points to grasp at. In his words, the chancellor had “bribed” the German middle class with the first universal healthcare system in Europe. This left very few disgruntled individuals for leftist movements to take in, thus the actions of socialist radicals seemed less inspiring and more alarming to the average German, which led to great social upheaval after each attempted murder. The lining up of the socialist attempts with the Polish one made it seem like the two were in tandem, causing middle class paranoia of a Marxist rebellion as well as a nativist Polish movement that would supposedly expel Germans from the lands carved by the Teutonic knights hundreds of years before.

This fear culminated in the autumn of 1878, with the infamous “Marsch der Familie mit Gott für die Freiheit”, or the Family March with God for Freedom, which is decried by modern left-wingers as an example of right-wing conspiracy theory gone array. In records released years after the event, it became clear that it had been mostly instigated by politicians from the liberal and conservative wings of the Reichstag, especially members of the National Liberal Party. They were usually prominent figures in the places they came from and had extensive contact with influential people like artists and priests, so these politicians used said connections to instigate the populace and incentivize protest.

In the 31st of August, 1878, 25,000 took to the streets of Hamburg to demand action from the government against the attacks upon German democracy. The crowd didn’t exactly have a coherent and intelligible message, though, chanting buzzwords like “Germanness” and “Christian values” (even though the socialists and Polish they wanted punished were also Christian). In the rest of Germany, it’s estimated that between 100,000 to 300,000 people also manifested. The region of Bayern had a particularly intense period of protests, which many saw as an attempt by the catholic population of Germany to distinguish themselves from the Poles and avoid backlash.

Unfortunately, Germany at the time wasn’t exactly experienced with democracy, and many people failed understand the difference between mob rule and a proper rule of law. Therefore, the effects of the march were immediately felt in the Reichstag, as politicians reacted to popular outrage. The elections that took place mid-year, a few weeks after the Wiśniewski Case, had seen a National Liberal landslide and a horrible SPD loss, as the social democrats lost 5 out of their 12 previous seats. With this, the bill against socialists that the right wing of the parliament had been lobbying for not only became harsher, but also started to include clauses against ethnic minorities, namely Poles. In October, the Anti-Sedition bill (Gesetz gegen die gemeingefährlichen Bestrebungen der Aufwiegelung), as the Anti-Socialism bill was now called, passed with more than 230 votes.

The social democrats had dissolved their party due to external pressure already, but the rightists concocted a plan to declare a state of siege to push them out of Berlin. However, the pressure from the populace was great to the extent of most social democrats leaving out of their own volition. The measures against Polish people weren’t light either, with the flagship being the new travel restrictions.

As the government tried to show the public it was taking action to prevent what happened at Bonn from happening again, the Anti-Sedition Bill clearly addressed the fact that Wiśniewski spent part of his life in Krakow. Personnel performing border security had lee way when dealing with non-German travelers, with legal protections for mistreatment of people who presented “suspicious behavior” (i.e., were not German). Furthermore, literary works on the Polish language also came under the government’s scrutiny, since any author who wished to be formally published had to pass a round of censorship beforehand. By the way, since the German Empire was a distinctively federal institution, each province stacked its own legal restrictions against Poles atop the ones of Berlin. Rather famously, regions like Silesia and Pomerania went to great lengths in order to purge themselves of Polish influence and people.
By the time the 1880’s had rolled in, public gatherings in the Polish language had been effectively outlawed. Even catholic festivities, a shrine of Polishness amongst the sea of Orthodoxy and Protestantism on the Great European Plain, were restricted to mostly indoors events, under the guise of preventing conflicts between crowds. The restrictions upon Catholicism were mostly employed at the local level, though, so the German states of Catholic majority were barely disturbed. However, if not for the entrenched system of oppression the Germans built in tandem with the Russians, some form of Polish insurgence might have slipped through the cracks. Instead, the Russian methods for keeping down the Polish population were even harsher than the German ones.

Alexander II may have been on the lighter end of the Tsars when it comes to Russification (he was nothing compared to his son), but the utter promise of German support in the face of any Polish revolt emboldened Russian lawmakers. Since Bismarck assured the Tsar that, no matter what happened in Congress Poland, the Germans would step in to hold down the Poles if needed, the process of Russification garnered full throttle and plowed its way right through many Polish traditions and institutions. The first target of these new anti-Polish policies was the Uniate Church.

For starters, a series of sham trials were held in the second half of 1878, convicting several men of the cloth for supposed collaboration with Marxist organizations. Some of these were even given sentences under the justification of instigating Poles in Congress Poland to repeat the actions of Paweł Wiśniewski. Afterwards, accusations escalated to rings of pedophilia, satanic rituals and blood libels, and the church itself became accountable for the actions of its members, with millions of rubles in church property being seized through fines. By 1879, the whole affair had been nicknamed the “Russian Inquisition”, in an obvious nod to the medieval, Spanish one. Modern estimations place the number of people killed, arrested or deported by the Russian Inquisition between 1,300 and 2,100 in the timeframe between 1878 to 1881 alone.

It is worth noting that Russian authorities showed a preference for land when seizing people’s property. That was not a coincidence, as that land was most often used to reward newly freed Russian serfs. Said “land grab” was especially prominent in the eastern sections of the country, which had a larger Russian population and drew in more settlers. This not-so-subtle attempt at Russification was compounded by an intensification of the vailed war against the Polish language in the Russian Empire, which had been raging on since the 1860’s.
Although it had been on the table for a while, the complete removal of the Polish language as compulsory teaching subject was fast-forwarded by several years, being formalized in the summer of 1881. By the mid 1880’s, any student of any institution could opt out of learning Polish. Furthermore, despite being allowed to at least perform their religious practices in their native language, that offered little comfort, since the Uniate Church had ever more restrictions imposed on it. It’s worth reminding that all of this was just what Russia did beyond Germany, since every oppressive law passed by the German diet was replicated by the Tsarist regime in Poland.

One didn’t have to be a genius to realize a revolt would soon break out. It’s needless to say that reaffirming the League of the Three Emperors in 1881 contributed much to Polish insubordination towards the system and the eventual March Uprising. After it was signed, Russians in Congress Poland were encouraged by government agencies to encroach on Polish land, since the 7th Article stated that Berlin and Vienna would present at least benevolent neutrality towards any conflict between the Russian state and Polish rebels. As a result, tensions began to build up, and they became even more intense in places where the Russians’ numbers rivalled the Poles. By march of 1882, there were already fights breaking out between Russian and Polish citizens all over the country.

The most important of these brawls happened at a bar in the outskirts of Suwałki, which was capital of the namesake governorate. The region had become a hot bed for this kind of conflict due to being of Lithuanian ethnic majority instead of Polish, so the Russian minority was easily catching up to the Polish minority in numbers. The reason why that specific fight drew so much attention is because, somehow, the police force got involved, and it brutally cracked down on the Polish participants while mostly ignoring the Russian ones. At least 3 people died as a result, and 14 more were wounded. When word got out about what had happened at Suwałki, rebellions started to spread throughout Congress Poland like a wildfire, which turned into a fully-fledged uprising like the ones of 1830 and 1863. The difference, though, is that instead of the Russian Imperial Army doing all the work, as was usual, the Germans pitched in to help them.

The Deutsches Heer began its participation with some minor action on the border, putting down rebellions that spread beyond Russia. But as the situation grew more warlike, the German government was given permission from St. Petersburg to increase its intervention, holding down some western Polish towns all on its own. Austria-Hungary also showed support by sending an entire division of its imperial army to assist in putting down the revolt. In the 31st of august, 1882, the rebellion was officially considered finished by the Russian government. The aftermath of the March Uprising, although often overshadowed by other events happening in the world at the time, can be considered the origin of the Russian Empire’s Пэчворк Политика. [1]

The Build Up to the Second Great Patriotic War, by Yevgeny Tarle

The 1880’s set the tone for much of what would happen in European politics in the twentieth century. Neo-Colonialism, the rise of Japan, but most important to the Russian context: the framework of the Balkas. With a Muslim majority exclave in the region, the Ottoman Empire found itself trying to juggle the interests of its emboldened neighbors to stop them from partitioning the territory.

In quick succession, most of the newly interdependent territories of the Ottoman Empire ascended from principalities to kingdoms, which was representative of their interest in asserting themselves in the regional stage. Luckily for the Ottomans, most of these new states held ambitions that pitted them directly against each other, preventing a military alliance from forming. For example, as soon as Greece acquired Thessaly in the Convention of Constantinople, its desire for Thessaloniki became less farfetched. Therefore, Greece and Bulgaria, whose borders in the Treaty of Berlin kept it only a few miles away from the city, began to butt heads over who had the most right to the city even while it was still under Ottoman control.

These conflicts of interests kept the Christian Balkan nations from uniting to take advantage of the Ottoman weakness for 20 years, but this does not mean matters were exactly peaceful in the meantime. There were wars, economic hardships and bad harvests that made future uncertain in both the Ottoman and newly freed territories. However, none of the new nations in the peninsula experienced economic hardship and political instability to the same extent as Serbia during the 1880’s. Its main issue was that it couldn’t really decide where to direct its irredentism. In fact, a better depiction would be that the majority of the common people believed in expansion at the cost of Austria-Hungary, while the state believed in conquering more of Macedonia.

Further adding to the complications were the country’s ties to Russia. Pan-Slavism was one of the reigning ideologies throughout the world at the time, and Russia had historically gone to great lengths to strengthen its ties to other Slavic nations. However, the Timok Rebellion, which was a popular uprising against the government’s tax policy, soured this relationship because many of the minds behind the revolt fled to Bulgaria, a staunch Russian ally. Thus, King Milan I of Serbia desired to undermine his much bigger neighbor to the southeast, and by association Russia’s influence in the Balkans.

Relationships between Sofia and Belgrade would go on to deteriorate significantly during the first half of the 1880’s, with the two often arguing over trivial matters. However, by pushing this anti-Bulgarian agenda, the monarch seriously alienated other political forces broiling in the country, with figures like Nikola Pašić gaining ever more influence. Milan I hoped that, if he could successfully grow territorially at the cost of Bulgaria, these divisions would be put to rest, but he faced a problem: Bulgaria was way too powerful. Instead of being split into Bulgaria and Eastern Rumelia in 1878, like Britain wished, the country stretched from the Vardar River to the Black Sea and from the Danube to the Aegean Sea. Its manpower pool and funds were far greater than Serbia’s, even if most people believed Serbian troops were of a higher quality.

With all of this in mind, the Serbian establishment tried to build a good network of allies to, for lack of a better term, gang up on Bulgaria. Greece had every reason to oppose Bulgaria, considering the fight for the Aegean coastline and Thessaloniki. What prevented a Serbo-Greek alliance from forming was the entrenched fear of Constantinople capitalizing on that to regain territory at the cost of Bulgaria. For as much as Greece wished to turn the Aegean into its Mare Nostrum, its leadership did not believe in doing so at the risk of a strengthened Ottoman hold over Greek speaking territories. In the end, the Serbian state made what was probably the worst decision possible: it sought the endorsement of Austria-Hungary. Vienna in the late 19th century was in absolutely no position to try expanding its sphere of influence, and most people knew that. In the Congress of Berlin, the Austro-Hungarians had managed to secure their interests and protect themselves by tying St. Petersburg’s ambitions in the Balkans to their own, but this balance hanged on Austria-Hungary remaining within the confines defined in 1878. When Serbia came knocking on its door, the very poor decision was made to give its backing to the Balkan nation.

When he received a positive response from Austria, the Serbian monarch saw it as a sign that he could push his southern ambitions. Since Russia had rescinded much of its previous backing for Russophile movements in Serbia, Milan expected there would be little blowback at home for the decision to go to war against a fellow Slavic nation, and that the Serbs could easily beat the Bulgarians with Austro-Hungarian support. The Austro-Hungarians, meanwhile, thought that a southward facing Serbia would, hopefully, leave the newly gained occupation zone of Bosnia-Herzegovina to Vienna’s devices. In the summer of 1885, Belgrade issued a series of territorial demands to be fulfilled by Bulgaria in the timespan of a month. These demands included cities such as Pirot, which were granted to Bulgaria in the Congress of Berlin despite being of ethnic Serbian majority. However, with its deafening silence, Sofia made it ever clearer that Serbian demands weren’t going to be taken seriously. This was the worst-case scenario for Belgrade, who expected the Bulgarians to at least consider Serbia’s demands due to Austro-Hungarian support.

With the cards on the table, Milan I was called on his bluff. By the end of the deadline, the Serbian state requested Austria-Hungary to own up to its promises of material and financial support, which Vienna had to decline to do because of Germany. The thing is, Bismarck did not look kindly upon the Austro-Hungarian meddling in the Balkans, seeing it as the ultimate disturbance to the delicate balance of power that he had been trying to build for decades. So, when news of Serbia’s decisions and who was its sponsor arrived at Berlin, the immediate reaction was total reprisal. Germany, obviously in tandem with Russia, demanded that Austria-Hungary withdrew its support for Serbia or face economic sanctions and expulsion from the Dreikaiserbund. As a result, the Franz Joseph I conceded and stopped the influx of volunteers, material and money to Serbia.

Still, once the war was set in motion, King Milan couldn’t back down. Otherwise, his image back at home would be degraded and turned into that of a weak monarch. However, the Serbian fate was set in stone from the very first moment of the war, since Belgrade was able to mobilize 60,000 men while Sofia mobilized almost 100,000. As winter set in, Serbia’s forces repeatedly lost confrontations against the Bulgarians in the eastern reaches of the country, mostly due to sheer strength of numbers. Once cities like Bor and Kruševac had been fully occupied by Bulgarian forces, Milan was forced to accept peace talks.

The Austro-Hungarian ambassador to Serbia, Count Khevenhüller-Metsch, tried to intimidate the Bulgarians into accepting a white peace, but since the international community knew that the Austro-Hungarian Empire’s words held no bite, he was ignored. Luckily for Serbia, Sofia had no territorial ambitions to Serbian territory, but there were a few demands made by Bulgaria that could not be set aside. For starters, reparations had to be paid. Since the damage to Bulgaria was minimal and the war was so one-sided that it experienced few casualties, these reparations were small, but still significant for a small country like Serbia. Beyond the reparations, the most painstaking clause of the Treaty of Belgrade was the demilitarization of Serbia. According to the treaty, the Serbian armed forces were restricted to a small volunteer force of 15,000 people.

The signing of the Treaty of Belgrade almost ended the monarchy in Serbia. To most people, even some among the monarchist establishment, the whole affair seemed like a continuation of the Timok Rebellion, as a show of monarchical incompetence and disconnection from reality. Further adding to the republican movement broiling in Serbia, Bulgaria demanded that the exiles it took in after the revolt be given amnesty, so many politicians who instigated the people against the state in 1883 were allowed to return to the country. It didn’t take long for this unrest to turn violent. Usually, the influence of tsarist Russia in Serbian politics would have prevented the rise of an overtly republican movement in the country. Yet, it had forsaken much of this influence in the previous half decade. Thus, when the Serbian Revolution of 1886 broke out with the People’s Radical Party at the helm, there was a distinct Jacobin climate to it. Chants to overthrow and even execute the nobles and the royal family of Serbia were common during the tail end of 1885-1886's winter season

The rebel forces consisted of 6,000 disgruntled, malnourished and desperate men, but the royalist forces still had trouble subduing them. Besides its diminished size, there was also limited funding, which narrowed the material gap between the two “armies”, and there were even high levels of defection in the Serbian armed forces due to dissatisfaction with the government. So, instead of a week, like the Timok Rebellion, the Serbian Revolution required an entire month to be crushed. Luckily for the monarchists, Belgrade remained firmly in their hands, which gave them control of the Iron Pass. Through it, the League of the Three Emperors sent a few regiments as “peacekeeping” forces. Although there had been disagreements among the members, they all still agreed that the overthrow of a monarchy, especially in a region as unstable as the Balkans, would inevitably lead to even more disgrace in Europe.

Even if he found success in keeping control of the country, Milan I knew that his time as king of Serbia was over. Not only was he seen as weak by most, but also incompetent and subservient to the Great Powers. In order to avoid an even greater revolt later on, he was advised by Austro-Hungarian, German and Russian diplomats to abdicate the throne in favor of his then ten years old son and leave his mother as regent. Evidence suggests that the king was already planning on doing that before the botched revolution, but the events of 1885 and 1886 likely fast forwarded the decision by several years. In his absence, a liberal constitution was pushed and, although the People’s Radical Party was dissolved after the Serbian Revolution of 1886, many of its leaders were elected to high government positions in this liberalized era.

The developments in the Balkans also had a great effect upon the alliances of the time. For example, due to the strong state of Bulgaria in the aftermath of the Congress of Berlin, Prince Alexander was able to neglect Ottoman desires to increase their influence in the country, which was enhanced by the spectacular win over Serbia to make him one of the most beloved figures in Bulgarian history. Beyond that, he was also able to garner Russian support throughout the 1880’s, culminating in a Russian-backed transformation of the Principality of Bulgaria into the Tsardom of Bulgaria, ushering in the Battenberg Dynasty.

There were also massive shifts in the dynamics between Austria-Hungary and Germany. Like in the Crimean War, Austria-Hungary had shown a remarkable degree of weakness by not
backing its supposed allies, which some, like Tsarevich Alexander of Russia, described as akin to the Ottoman Empire. Although, to the Germans, it might have felt as if they were just upholding the status quo when they decried the Austro-Hungarian puppeteering in Serbia, Vienna did not see things under the same light. Between 1878 and 1885, the League of the Three Emperors was perceived as a way to force a status quo down an expanding Russia’s throat [2], but it started to be seen like a restraint, since leaving the Balkan nations to their own fate clearly benefitted Bulgaria, a Russian ally.

From then on, two main lines of thought developed among the German establishment: a Slavophile, pacifist and federalist one and an autocratic, belligerent and conservative one. The first believed the Serbo-Bulgarian War was proof that Austria-Hungary should cease its attempts at expansion and seek reform, giving more autonomy to the subject ethnicities. It also had a bit of an anti-Hungarian tinge, since the minorities in the lands of St. Stephen experienced less autonomy than under the Austrian crown and were often exposed to Magyarization.
The emperor leaned towards the pacifist side of the argument for the rest of the 1880’s, believing, after the recent failures of Austro-Hungarian foreign policy, that remaining on the good side of Germany and Russia would lead to the maintenance of the Central European status quo and the Hapsburg monarchy by extension. Therefore, the League of the Three Emperors was renovated in 1887, and became a relatively stable alliance, as St. Petersburg increasingly rescinded its support for Serbian irredentism, thus removing its main conflict of interest with Austria-Hungary. As a whole, the Serbo-Bulgarian affair forced Vienna to recognize its lost status as a Great Power and reliance on the Russians and Germans to achieve its goals.

[1] Patchwork Politics is a term I created for this timeline and refers to some aspects of the Russification of Poland. It will explained better further down the line.

[2] Here, the author is referencing the agreement reached at Berlin in 1878 of this timeline. If you remember, in order to get Austro-Hungarian support for a bigger Bulgarian state, the Russians had to recognize Austro-Hungarian legitimacy in Bosnia-Herzegovina. By definition, this would damage Serbo-Russian relationships, thus preventing further Tsarist dominance in the Balkans. What the Austro-Hungarians have come to realize at this stage of the TL, though, is that the agreement hampers their expansion just as much as it hampers Russia's, and if neither state can directly influence the Balkans, Bulgaria, who is a Russian ally, will come out on top. So, a decision had to be made about wheter or not they would remain under the framework of the Russo-German alliance or if they would leave to seek a bolder foreign policy. The failure at turning Serbia into an ally convinces Franz Joseph that, at least for the time being, Austria-Hungary should remain friendly towards Russia.
 
Well this isnt going to end for a certain empire, although the Ottomans are basically gone with Big Bulgaria on the Straights and Russia with its western border kinda secure (diplomacy isnt always absolute).
 
Well this isnt going to end for a certain empire, although the Ottomans are basically gone with Big Bulgaria on the Straights and Russia with its western border kinda secure (diplomacy isnt always absolute).
Yep. Hold tight, sweetheart, the Ottomans are gonna go through a very rough patch by the end of the 1890's.
 
So, Serbia, supported by Austria-Hungari and abandonated by Russia, was crushed by pro-Russia Bulgaria, leading to major internal unrest and major reconsiderations in Vienna and Budapest.

And, as usual, Poles are as well treated in Germanya nd Russia as Kurds in Turkey.

Since the conservatives advising involving in Balkanic affair saw Serbia lose, would the Slavophile side advocating federalism win? And what solution will A-H leadership seek to their loss of Great Power status? Would some advocate leaving the Dreikaiserbund?

With a strong Bulgaria, how much is the Ottoman Empire faring? Lastly, what are the Greek reactions to Bulgaria being stronger to enforce its claims at Salonica?
 
So, Serbia, supported by Austria-Hungari and abandonated by Russia, was crushed by pro-Russia Bulgaria, leading to major internal unrest and major reconsiderations in Vienna and Budapest.

And, as usual, Poles are as well treated in Germanya nd Russia as Kurds in Turkey.

Since the conservatives advising involving in Balkanic affair saw Serbia lose, would the Slavophile side advocating federalism win? And what solution will A-H leadership seek to their loss of Great Power status? Would some advocate leaving the Dreikaiserbund?

With a strong Bulgaria, how much is the Ottoman Empire faring? Lastly, what are the Greek reactions to Bulgaria being stronger to enforce its claims at Salonica?
You, sir, are making the right questions. First off, as for Greece, it is in a traditionally Balkan position: hating literally everyone around them. The Greeks will not, under any circumstance, allign with the Turks, but they can't really ally with Bulgaria either because of the Macedonia/Thessaloniki dispute. So, Greek relations with the neighboring states will remain tense until an spontaneous event shakes things and Bulgaria and Greece form an alliance out of convinience rather than choice.

The Ottomans are really, really going down hill. They don't have any good ground to stand on, with their European territories marked for dead, eastern Anatolia already eyed up by the Russians (an enemy the sultan can't realistically fight on his own) and Austria-Hungary no longer in a position to oppose Russian imperialism. Therefore, what's mostly going to keep the Ottoman Empire alive in the foreseeable future will be British support. London will work extremely hard to keep the Ottomans alive, and I'll go ahead and say that the concept of battling Russian influence in Asia and German influence in Africa is going to be at the forefront of their foreign policy. Besides, I'm still kind of trying to figure out what would happen to Turkish politics if they much territory in the Balkans a few years early, since many Young Turks and even Kemal himself got their education west of the Bosporus.

So, the next chapter delves deeper into the Austro-Hungarian conundrum, but I'll give you a heads up. In the 80's, it's kinda hard for people advocating for more imperialism to be taken seriously because of the massive Serbian blunder. Thus, they'll mostly remain quiet all the way to the end decade, but things will get more active in the 1890's. By then, new faces, like our beloved Franz Ferdinand, will get into the conversation and the argument will become more heated as well. As you'll see, the people who will advocate for expansionism, such as Hötzendorf, will have stronger ties to the military and will have no qualms about going to war (mostly because they have no idea how outmatched their army actually is). They'll definitely argue for leaving the Dreikaiserbund, seeing it as a limitation to Austria-Hungary's potential gains in the Balkans. It's still too early to define who would win in the argument between the federalist pacifists and the centralizing warmongers, but if I was a political analyst in this TL, I'd bet my money in the first ones because Franz Joseph knows that straying too far away from Russia and Germany would result RU+DE+IT VS AH, which is just... lol.

Also, if you think the Poles had a rough patch up until now, just keep in mind that Alexander III's most known alias in this TL is "Kat" (butcher in Polish).
 
The Ottomans are really, really going down hill. They don't have any good ground to stand on, with their European territories marked for dead, eastern Anatolia already eyed up by the Russians (an enemy the sultan can't realistically fight on his own) and Austria-Hungary no longer in a position to oppose Russian imperialism. Therefore, what's mostly going to keep the Ottoman Empire alive in the foreseeable future will be British support. London will work extremely hard to keep the Ottomans alive, and I'll go ahead and say that the concept of battling Russian influence in Asia and German influence in Africa is going to be at the forefront of their foreign policy. Besides, I'm still kind of trying to figure out what would happen to Turkish politics if they much territory in the Balkans a few years early, since many Young Turks and even Kemal himself got their education west of the Bosporus.
There's another factor to consider: a weaker OE might mean even more expulsions of Muhacir to Anatolia, along with the loss of the most prosperous territories. Sultans might work hard to attract capital and knowledge from France and Britain. OTL, Ataturk studied in Salonica and Monastir; how many of these Young Turks might be sent to study in Anatolia, and might the Empire try to develop its Asian territories?
So, the next chapter delves deeper into the Austro-Hungarian conundrum, but I'll give you a heads up. In the 80's, it's kinda hard for people advocating for more imperialism to be taken seriously because of the massive Serbian blunder. Thus, they'll mostly remain quiet all the way to the end decade, but things will get more active in the 1890's. By then, new faces, like our beloved Franz Ferdinand, will get into the conversation and the argument will become more heated as well. As you'll see, the people who will advocate for expansionism, such as Hötzendorf, will have stronger ties to the military and will have no qualms about going to war (mostly because they have no idea how outmatched their army actually is). They'll definitely argue for leaving the Dreikaiserbund, seeing it as a limitation to Austria-Hungary's potential gains in the Balkans. It's still too early to define who would win in the argument between the federalist pacifists and the centralizing warmongers, but if I was a political analyst in this TL, I'd bet my money in the first ones because Franz Joseph knows that straying too far away from Russia and Germany would result RU+DE+IT VS AH, which is just... lol.
And what about some leaders pushing for a "place under the sun"? for the matter, is the Dreikaiserbund concerned about extra-European adventures?
 
There's another factor to consider: a weaker OE might mean even more expulsions of Muhacir to Anatolia, along with the loss of the most prosperous territories. Sultans might work hard to attract capital and knowledge from France and Britain. OTL, Ataturk studied in Salonica and Monastir; how many of these Young Turks might be sent to study in Anatolia, and might the Empire try to develop its Asian territories?

And what about some leaders pushing for a "place under the sun"? for the matter, is the Dreikaiserbund concerned about extra-European adventures?
For most intents and purposes, the Dreikaiserbund is an alliance in Europe. Their ambitions outside of it rarely allign (except when Britain is in the conversation), and you'll see in the next post, which is mostly centered on Germany in the Scramble for Africa, that Russia is barely mentioned.

You also make a good point about the Ottoman government trying to develop the eastern territories more if it loses the European ones too early. However, the Treaty of Berlin gave Russia the eastern Anatolian lands that were meant for it in San Stefano. Thus, I think the Ottomans might be afraid of developing a territory that the Russians just might take in the next war. Maybe Ankara will be developed even further and become the second most important city in this TL, with colleges and such being built there by the state. Also, France would be much less worried about the possible end of the Ottomans at the hands of the Russians, since anything that doesn't concern Germany doesn't concern it either, but Britain will definetely be bleeding money at the Sick Man. At the same time, though, there will be a feeling brewing among the British that maybe the Ottomans are a lost cause that costs them more than it gives back. With one hand, the British will give loads of money to help the Sultan prepare for a fight against the Tsar, all while they draw up plans to carve up a crumbling Ottoman Empire with the other hand.
 
You also make a good point about the Ottoman government trying to develop the eastern territories more if it loses the European ones too early. However, the Treaty of Berlin gave Russia the eastern Anatolian lands that were meant for it in San Stefano. Thus, I think the Ottomans might be afraid of developing a territory that the Russians just might take in the next war. Maybe Ankara will be developed even further and become the second most important city in this TL, with colleges and such being built there by the state. Also, France would be much less worried about the possible end of the Ottomans at the hands of the Russians, since anything that doesn't concern Germany doesn't concern it either, but Britain will definetely be bleeding money at the Sick Man. At the same time, though, there will be a feeling brewing among the British that maybe the Ottomans are a lost cause that costs them more than it gives back. With one hand, the British will give loads of money to help the Sultan prepare for a fight against the Tsar, all while they draw up plans to carve up a crumbling Ottoman Empire with the other hand.
And might they encourage even more Zionist immigration to Palestine, if only to improve the tax base? And what about Mesopotamia agriculture? Might they survive long enough for oil to become a factor?
 
And might they encourage even more Zionist immigration to Palestine, if only to improve the tax base? And what about Mesopotamia agriculture? Might they survive long enough for oil to become a factor?
Although there would be clear financial incentive to do so, I doubt the Ottomans would open up to Zionist immigration, if not for the democratic ideas of European Jews, then because the Arabs already hate them. Constantinople's rule over the Fertile Crescent, the Levante and the western coast of Arabia was already tenous, so bringing in an entirely different group of people with another religion (as if fights between Christians and Muslims weren't enough) might potentially light a fire hat would burn away all non-Turkish territories.

As for Ottomans' business in Mesopotamia, it will hardly be their business. I'm still thinking about how exactly it will play out, but I'm certain that Britain will be dropping some hard cashing on the Ottomans. There will be definitely a lot of money lent, as the Crown tries to make sure that Russia can't have leeway in the Near East, with things like trading warships, giving military adisory, inviting Turks to study in Britain (I'm even thinking about having Kemal study in London during his youth), etc. However, that's not gonna come free. Whatever big successes happen in the Ottoman economy, the British will get first dibs. I don't think there will be much development in agriculture, due simply to the fact that Argentina and Russia will be dominating exports to the British Isles in the beginning of the twentieth century. The oil business, on the other hand, will most definitely have a boom post-WWI, but the British Empire will already have some deal with the Sultan to grant them extraction rights. If the Ottomans collapse, the British will still act upon what they think are their rights and seize the oil fields, maybe all of Iraq. The only way Mesopotamia doesn't end up as an de facto British colony is if the British Empire itself collapses.
 
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